Podcast Summary

Podcast: Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Episode: "Mating Crisis: Why The Rate Of Single Men Looking For Dates Has Declined | William Costello PT 2"
Date: March 7, 2026
Host: Tom Bilyeu
Guest: William Costello (Researcher on incels, internet culture, and mating psychologies)

Main Theme

This episode explores the so-called "mating crisis," detailing the rise of sexlessness and persistent singleness, particularly among young men. Tom and guest William Costello investigate the psychological, evolutionary, and societal factors shaping this shift—covering online dating's impact, the incel (involuntary celibate) phenomenon, the roles of anxiety, social identity, and the possible future influences of AI romantic partners. The conversation aims for honesty, confronting uncomfortable data and perspectives with a drive to understand the true roots of contemporary mating and relationship struggles.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The "Mating Crisis" and Sexlessness Trends

• Overview: There is a growing demographic of sexually inactive and single men, with data suggesting a small proportion of men are obtaining most romantic success while many struggle or give up entirely.
• Key Observation: This resembles "polygyny" (a few men monopolizing most mating opportunities), something common in ancestral environments but now technologically and culturally amplified ([02:54]).
• Quote:
  • Tom: "You get a huge number of guys that are having no sex and a small number of guys are having a ton of sex. And that feels like a mismatch to me." [02:54]

2. Online Dating, Technology, and Birth Control

• Dating Apps: Expose users to more potential mates than ever before, recreating both opportunities and intensified rejection. The business model incentivizes keeping people single and engaged.
• Birth Control: The pill drastically shifted the mating landscape, allowing women to delay partnership and childbearing, sometimes until opportunities dwindle ([04:29]).
• Notable Quote:
  • William: "Dating apps… expose us to more potential mates in a few minutes than we would in a lifetime throughout our ancestral history… Why would [dating apps'] business model be anything else [than keeping you single]?" [04:29], [07:17]

3. Pornography, Virtual Reality, and Behavioral Retreat

• Porn's Role: High consumers are often already sexually active, not necessarily those who aren’t, complicating assumptions about porn causing retreat from human relationships.
• Virtual Retreat: Men—particularly those with high anxiety—seem likelier to forgo the emotional cost of the real mating market, retreating into online status games, pornography, or virtual companionship ([08:57], [09:57]).
• Notable Quotes:
  • Tom: "If I'm not masturbating… doesn't mean I will go seek a natural human relationship to sort that out?" [10:19]
  • William: "It's not clear to me that just stopping porn in isolation would encourage the mate seeking." [10:19]

4. Inceldom (Involuntary Celibacy): Motivations and Dark Allure

• External Locus of Control: Incels feel powerless to change their fate—blaming external factors (dating apps, genetics) and reinforcing each other’s pessimism across online communities ([24:28]).
• Identity and Community: There is surprising psychological comfort in aligning with a group suffering the same fate (“victimhood identity”), which brings belonging, humor, and simplicity ([12:17], [29:19]).
• Stages: Incels conceptualize their experiences as "Hope, Cope, Rope"—ranging from possible self-improvement to despair and suicidal ideation ([26:08]).
• Quote:
  • William: "A lot of incels… are not aiming at all. And there's actually unique appeal to the incel identity that gets them hunkered down into that life and that victimhood mentality, rather than engaging with the anxiety-inducing mating market." [12:17]
  • Tom: "If you want to flourish… you cannot allow yourself to take on an identity that holds you back." [33:53]

5. Psychic Pain & Human Flourishing

• Pain of Exclusion: Being excluded from mating opportunities is psychologically devastating due to deep evolutionary drives. It is not merely a superficial problem ([38:12]).
• Alternative Paths: For those truly unable (or unwilling) to participate in the dating market due to anxiety or other factors, it’s critical to find fulfillment beyond romantic relationships—but that is easier said than done ([36:27]).
• Quote:
  • William: "It really bugs me when people say, why don't [incels] just care about other things? It's not that easy." [38:12]

6. AI, Virtual Companions, and Dystopian Futures

• Artificial Companionship: The idea of AI partners scratches loneliness and sexual itches, but not the status itch, since being chosen by an AI doesn’t afford social validation ([42:13], [43:36]).
• Status and Sexual Selection: For many men, particularly in incel communities, romantic success is as much about perceived social value as about sex or connection ([43:43]).
• Quote:
  • William: "[An AI partner] might scratch one itch for incels... but there's no status afforded to men who have the best artificially intelligent girlfriend." [42:13]

7. Evolutionary Novelty, Ritual Loss, and Societal Change

• Loss of Ritual/Transition: Without clear cultural or familial rituals, adolescent transition to adulthood and the mating market is chaotic, isolated, and confusing, especially for men ([73:08]).
• Arranged Marriages & Constraints: Data suggest arranged marriages might foster more stable unions than the freedom-driven, endless-choice culture of the West due to self-imposed limitations ([74:10]).

8. Men & Women: Adversaries or Allies?

• Combative Narratives: Online culture stokes male vs. female antagonism, but evolutionary pressure and lived experience suggest cooperation and love are default states ([59:35]).
• Cross-Sex Mind Reading: Much conflict arises from a failure to genuinely understand the differing psychologies, especially regarding sexual desire and mate selection ([63:19], [91:04]).
• Quote:
  • William: "Men are cursed, as they get older, to be attracted to women that are never going to desire them." [46:27]
  • Tom: "If you look at the other sex as your adversary, you are already in trouble." [59:19]

9. Female Counterparts (Femcels) and Societal Sympathy

• Femcel Phenomenon: While less visible, similar trends exist among women (“involuntarily single”), but mainstream discourse treats them more sympathetically than male incels ([63:19]).

10. Free Speech and Evolutionary Psychology

• Cultural Resistance: Discussion of biological sex differences and evolutionary psychology often meets ideological hostility due to fears of justifying inequality. The hosts argue for open inquiry and speech as prerequisites for societal progress ([85:46], [86:39]).

Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• "You get a huge number of guys that are having no sex and a small number of guys are having a ton of sex. And that feels like a mismatch to me." – Tom [02:54]
• "Dating apps…expose us to more potential mates in a few minutes than we would in a lifetime throughout our ancestral history… Why would [dating apps'] business model be anything else [than keeping you single]?" – William [07:17]
• "It's not clear to me that just stopping porn in isolation would encourage the mate seeking." – William [10:19]
• "A lot of incels…are not aiming at all. And there's actually unique appeal to the incel identity that gets them hunkered down into that life and that victimhood mentality." – William [12:17]
• "Only do and believe that which moves you towards your goals." – Tom [26:08]
• "It really bugs me when people say, why don't [incels] just care about other things? It's not that easy." – William [38:12]
• "[An AI partner] might scratch one itch for incels...but there's no status afforded to men who have the best artificially intelligent girlfriend." – William [42:13]
• "If you look at the other sex as your adversary, you are already in trouble." – Tom [59:19]
• "Men are cursed, as they get older, to be attracted to women that are never going to desire them." – William [46:39]
• "I'd rather have questions I can't answer than answers I can't question." – William [85:46]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Impact of Tinder and Mating Inequality: [02:54]–[03:44]
• Role of Dating Apps, Birth Control, and Mating Psychology: [03:44]–[07:41]
• Pornography, VR, and Male Mate-Seeking Behavior: [08:39]–[10:51]
• Inceldom: Identity, Psychology, and Suicide: [12:17]–[29:19]
• Hope, Cope, Rope (Incel Stages): [26:08]–[29:17]
• AI Partners, Status, and the Future of Connection: [42:13]–[44:27]
• Ritual Loss, Arranged Marriage, and Societal Changes: [73:08]–[76:26]
• Adversarial Sexes & Cross-Sex Mind Reading: [59:19]–[63:19]; [91:04]–[93:18]
• Evolutionary Psychology and Free Speech in Academia: [85:46]–[89:10]

Conclusion

The conversation concludes with a call for honest debate, the cultivation of empathy and cross-sex understanding, and strategic personal growth. Tom urges listeners not to let victimhood or a self-defeating identity take root—even if relationship success isn't possible for everyone, fulfillment and human flourishing are available through alternative paths. The episode provides a nuanced, research-informed lens on the demographic trends, technological disruptions, and identity-fueled communities changing modern mating markets, all the while advocating for open inquiry and adaptation in an era of rapid cultural transformation.