← Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
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You.
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C
Ooh, we've got a hot one today. Elon Musk pushing the limits of money and politics actively just trying to buy votes. North Korea is teaming up with Russia. Russia is teaming up with the other BRICS countries to put heat on the dollar. Claude AI is breaking out of its box and showing the world what the future of agents is going to look like. And Tim Pool is being chewed up by what I call the chaos machine, something that I warn entrepreneurs about all the time. In the end, we're also going to be taking your questions from people in the community. Let's get straight to it. Welcome to Tom's trending name mistaken. I hope not. I hope not.
- [01:40]
B
Jumping right into it. $1 million a day to any voter in any swing state as long as they sign a petition supporting the first and Second Amendment. Tom, how does it make you feel?
- [01:51]
C
It actually made me feel weird. So I'm a big fan of Elon, but I think that this, as soon as you bring that sort of just blatant, I'm going to pay you this big reward for this thing. You end up bringing people that aren't into that thing for what you're really trying to do. So they're not thinking carefully through their candidates. They're not there for their civic duty. They're there to win some money. And I get it. And in the right circumstance, that can be a lot of fun. It brings a lot of energy to something. But it feels like this classic marketing technique of just trying to grab attention through money instead of actually getting into the issues and saying, this is why this matters and this is why we hope that you get there. So it's the first time in the campaign where I was like a Little queasy about it. He almost certainly is going to be sued or. I don't know exactly what the mechanisms are when they go after you for something like this, but it really does seem like a violation. The America PAC is saying, hey, this is totally legal. We're good. But by making it a requirement that they have to be a registered voter in order to qualify for the prize, it really does seem like it makes it illegal to do it. And now you're just basically paying people to register to vote. And so that is a pretty clear violation. So I think this is going to end up settling out in court. But whatever way it goes, I don't love the bread and circus of it all.
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B
It is a bit of an icky feeling. Just for context, as we're filming this, we're 14 days away from the election. So in the grand scheme of things, it's $14 million in total prize money available. However, we have seen historic contributions this cycle from Sacks on the right to Kamala Harris's team raising over a billion dollars. She's the first billion dollar presidential candidate race. And as much as it's icky to do that, I think that this amount of money in politics is definitely a red flag. So, yes, Elon, we're going to slap him on the Wrist for the 14 million. But I still want to talk about Zuckerberg's 400 million contribution to his PACs in 2020. I want to talk about the fact that Kamala has raised over a billion. There's way too much money here to your point, for it to be about helping people. And I hate to be that guy where that could have bought a lot of school lunches and that could help the homeless. But, like, seriously, guys, does it really cost a billion dollars to run for president?
- [04:00]
C
Well, it does when you have an ever escalating arms race of more and more money in politics. So money is obviously a deranging influence on politics in the extreme. And so, man, I know that there are people fighting to keep it in, which is why it's there. But when you get people alone and you just say, hey, does this really make sense? I think most people would say we'd be in a way better position if we just set aside, okay, our tax dollars are going to go to funding X amount for each candidate. You probably have to make a provision for a third party candidate kind of thing so that you don't really just lock in that or you create some mechanism by which a third party is able to raise specifically because they're A third party, but keeping the money out of the, the tit for tat that you're going to get. You know, one of those two candidates is going to win. And a lot of times you'll get people that, that fundraise for both sides just because they're like, well, I want to have, you know, I want to have somebody that, that owes me. They're never going to say that. But the reality is it's getting you in front of them. It's getting you to give them talking points. It's definitely giving a sense of like, well, hey, I've done something for you. There's no obvious requirement for them to do something back. But if you're a meaningful enough person, part of what they do, it cannot help but influence them subconsciously, if nothing else. And lobbies are just exceedingly powerful because it is so difficult to run. You know, like, you've got to get these people on your side. So the whole time that you're running, you're doing favors and back channel communications and staying in touch and making sure that they're happy so that when you go to campaign again, that you've got those deep pockets and it cannot help but derange it. Now, oddly enough, to me, these are two tenors of something, because the way, way, way bigger offender is just general money in politics and the amount that they raise and how much influence that gives the wealthy to influence politics. But what Elon is doing feels like bread and circus. It feels like now it's just bringing out the. It's not even about the politics. It's just about getting in here, creating a party vibe, like, we're not going to promise you money through goods and services which the Democrats should not be doing. I think that that's completely deranging and it's exactly why we have the debt. But it's sort of the same thing over now on that side of just like, yeah, we're splashing money around. It's like, man, it feels very undignified. Like if I really dig into it, like if I stop and think from first principles and I go, okay, hold on a second, we're in like the ninth inning and trying to play to win, when the reality is we have to let this game go and we have to say, okay, this game is a wash, it's a loss, it's a tie, whatever, but it's just a mess and we've got to find a way to start over. And what I mean specifically by that is you've got to go back and Improve the education system. You've got to go back and balance the budget. You've got to stop stealing from children's future. Like, you hear all of this stuff about the plight of adults and people that have grown apart and they're in a bad situation and they're stuck in poverty. And the really gnarly answer, man, because I've thought a lot about this. The really gnarly answer is you have to give up on the adults, stop putting all of your time and energy there. You're not going to be able to unwind that. So language centers of the brain develop or don't develop the education level, the odds of them going and furthering it, it's just like adults can change, they can change, but man, the stats don't bear out that they do. So it's a very low percentage of people that are going to be like, I'm really glad that you're helping me get reeducated, or you're giving me a new perspective on the workforce. You're making me rethink my family obligations. That's just not where it's going to play out. What's going to play out is getting people to understand that if you want this country to be strong, you've got to really create opportunities where everybody gets equally educated regardless of where they grow up. The reason that the inner cities is just a death sentence is because they're going to be educated poorly, they're going to be educated poorly at home, they're going to be educated poorly in the schools. And when I was working in the inner cities, I just saw up close, man, this is an ideas problem, this is not an intellect problem. You find people that can process raw data very quickly, but they are just running these algorithms that are self defeating. And so if you get in there and start teaching mothers or women who are about to become pregnant, this is what you have to do to read to your child every night. The number of words that they need to hear, the impact on the language centers, the ratio positive to negative. I mean, there's been studies on this. And then you look at some of the charter school stuff and everything that they're doing, the effects are dramatic. And I'm talking in the same school. So you have the public school underperforming like crazy. In the same school building, you'll have a charter school that draws from the same student population at random. So it's not like, oh, well, these are the kids that could figure out the application process just literally at random. And the outcomes could not Be more divergent. So you've got one that's just focused on telling these kids over and over and over there are high expectations put upon you. You are going to act in a manner befitting a young lady, a young gentleman, to get educated, to be completely focused on your schoolwork. That we a code of ethics and a code of behavior and being held to that high standard keeps their head up and they're getting drilled and they're coming out with these incredible educations. I mean they're performing in like the highest percentile of every school in the nation. It's absolutely incredible. I've been trying to get Geoffrey Canada on, as you well know, forever to talk about this stuff because it really feels like that's the real answer. So when I see the bread and circus of million dollar checks and come vote and you know, if you're in a swing state, I'm just like, I get it. But man, that isn't where we want the energy going. And this is a both sides thing like that isn't where I want the energy going. I don't want fake promises, I don't want anything that drives up the debt. It's like focus on the next generation, making sure everything is going to be better for them. I don't have kids and when I'm beating the drum of like every action you take needs to be focused on what it's going to be like for the next generation. And that's going to require better education, getting money out of politics, looking at the actual results that yield from the things that we try. So is the school system actually improving people's job prospects? Are they scoring? Do they scoring well? Do they have above grade reading, writing? We need some sort of merit based testing back so we can see what's working and what's not working. But it is. My heart is devastated by the way that we, we let the generation get broken every time and then we just focus on them when they're adults. It's madness.
- [10:57]
B
Yeah. As soon as I seen this, you were saying that I was thinking about the Michelle Obama quote. You know, when they go low, we go high. And I feel like at this point everybody's just kind of racing to the bottom. Like there's no more like dignity, there's no line. It's by any means necessary. I want to get my team to win.
- [11:11]
C
And to your point, it feels inspire me, inspire me. You know what I mean? Show me. Like give me the. We're not doing it because it's easy. We're Doing it because it's hard, right? It's like, okay, set, set that kind of goal for what we're going to do with education. Look, I get this stuff really needs a real plan because it's going to take a lot of figuring out what you do about the school unions, the Department of Education. There's a lot of things going on that are stopping this from happening, but if we could pull it into the forefront. This is why I got so excited about rfk. Felt like he was pulling the right things into the forefront. Having a conversation about making kids physically mentally healthy, fixing education, getting the debt in line. It's like, those are the real things. And then seeing party politics break the back of that was. It's devastating. And so. And then, look, I'm very hopeful about what Elon could do from the perspective of governmental efficiency. I still am. But seeing that sort of meme side come out, I don't love it.
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B
Yeah, not our best luck. Not our best. Look, in international politics, we have South Korea confirming they have their intelligence agencies out there, that there is 1500 North Korean troops fighting alongside the Russians. They have threatened to escalate it to NATO because they fear a nuclear north would destabilize their region. Is this the start of World War Three? I feel like if North Korea and Russia get real close, it's going to be bad.
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C
We just. We're sleepwalking towards something. So it's wonderfully clickbaity to say we're sleepwalking towards World War 3. I certainly hope not. But this is how things just continue to escalate. It's just one more little step, one more little thing. So let's play it out. So North Korea now starts siding with Russia. Obviously, South Korea is going to have a beef with that because supposedly some of the trade off is that Russia is saying to North Korea, come help us out, because we need men of fighting age, and you guys need upgraded weapons, upgraded planes and tanks, and we can get you into the 21st century. Obviously, South Korea is going to be well up in arms about that. That's going to be wildly problematic for them. So now they're escalating tensions. Also, there's a relationship between Russia and North Korea, and there's a now relationship between Russia and North Korea that could pull North Korea away from China. And so now that's going to potentially create China, Russia conflicts. And so you get this multipolar world where the only three. There's only two superpowers, and that's the US And China. But you've got this other regional power in Russia growing. You've got India that's saying, hey, look at me in another 20 years, and I could be something. And so you start getting this. Not destabilized because it may end up being better if everybody were to hit equilibrium. But right now, it feels like everybody's hitting this state of disequilibrium. You've got what's going on in brics attacking the US dollar. There's just a lot of moving parts. And if you find that, I mean, I think North Korea has something like 1.3 million people in their military. So if they start sending a significant number of troops, which, by the way, is not unprecedented. During the Korean War, it ended up being a proxy war between China, Russia and the United States. So we're in Korea, most of the fighters were Chinese, and they were there at the request of, I think it was Stalin at the time. So it ends up being the US Is like, hold on a second. Like, this isn't who we're being told that we're fighting. And so it's one of the original proxy wars. And now you could end up in a similar proxy war where you've got North Korea over with Russia fighting against Ukraine, but they're actually fighting against the US and then does China get involved and it become this really complicated mess? So this is where you just. You cannot be careful enough because you could find yourself in this escalating tension where if North Korea gets the weapons in reward for helping Russia, they then do something to antagonize South Korea. They would have to go through the US troops because we have 30,000 US troops there in the DMZ from between South Korea and North Korea, you trigger that, you get the full weight of the US Responding. If North Korea oversteps and they have nuclear weapons and the US Comes in, like, what do you do? So now I guarantee you're gonna have people if. Look, there's so many ifs. I wanna be very clear. I'm just sort of playing out war scenarios that make me nervous, not things that I think are going to happen. But you could certainly, as you run these scenarios, one of the scenarios is you've got somebody in the US Saying they have nukes. There's escalating tension between South Korea and North Korea. You've got tensions between North Korea and China. You've got tensions between China and Russia, US And Russia, China and the US and now it's like, do you preemptively strike on North Korea before they can pop off on us. And so it's one of those, I mean that feels very far fetched right now. I want to be very clear. But as you run the scenarios in the Middle east, like how does it go? You run the scenarios in Russia, Ukraine, how does it go? You just start seeing like, wait a second, there's a lot of these axes where a stray bullet in any direction can cause that cascading thing that goes from, you know, I think we're going to be fine to Franz Ferdinand get shot and all of a sudden we're in World War I.
- [16:38]
B
And that's the thing that I think we're not spending enough attention about. Like we're used to a Senate, we're used to hearings. If we want to go to war, we got to get 1600 people's approval. Kim Jong Un can just wake up and feel froggy one day and say, you know what, thanks for that bomb. Russia, I could angle it, I could target it. Maybe he does preemptively strike and he's the one who starts it off. There's a lot of unilateral, one decision making people in the play here. So it, that's what makes me the most nervous. It's not that this is something that's an alliance. It's, it's not the NATO. It's. And of course I'm not saying it's going to be Hitler esque or anything like that, but there's too many wild cards that take one decision from one person to start this whole conflict.
- [17:13]
C
Yeah, the thing I would worry even more about than that because from that perspective, I only worry about North Korea. North Korea might really just pop off like with no diplomacy and just do something erratic.
- [17:25]
B
They already did the testing a couple of months ago.
- [17:27]
C
They want that to be the reputation. But what I worry about is an escalating proxy war where it really does become, this is actually about US and Russia and it's not being fought by US soldiers, but it really is a US Russia proxy war in Ukraine. And that could get nasty. And as we start between the U.S. europe bringing weapons now into Ukraine and they've already greenlit for them to attack on Russian soil, which previously they had said was a red line, an absolute no go. Now they've removed that, now they're giving them weapons that could escalate quickly. And so if that the proxy war heats up and Russia feels like not only is this just a threat against Russia and we won't stand for that, but this is really about America trying to reinstill dominance On Russia, on Russian territory. At some point, they don't care anymore that it's a proxy. They're going to treat it as a direct assault. And that's when things get crazy. More to come. We'll be back in a bit.
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D
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C
We're back. Let's dive right in the BRICS countries
- [19:34]
B
that consist of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, as well as other delegates from over 30 countries. That's where the membership is estimated to grow by in 2026. Those countries included Ivory Coast, Pakistan, Iran and a bunch of others in Middle east and in Africa. The lingering debt crisis that we're facing in the U.S. how do you think the BRICS allegiance kind of either escalates? That helps that. How do you see that playing out?
- [20:00]
C
Well, I think ultimately the dollar is going to get challenged if for no other reason than we've done two things. We've racked up so much debt and everybody understands that you rack up that kind of debt, you're going to print money. When you print money, you're exporting your inflation. And so the fact that we would ever jeopardize our position as the world's reserve currency is just insane to me. But every reserve currency ever in human history finds it too tempting. And this is just the debt cycle, emotionally devastating for me. It's just so stupid. Anyway, I don't argue with the truth. It is true. Every nation in history has done it. So you've already got that. The second thing that we've done is when the Russia Ukraine war began, the US went super political, froze a bunch of assets, confiscated assets and that gave a signal to the rest of the world, if you do anything that we don't like and you're holding us paper, we're going to freeze it. And that was idiotic. And so when you look back and the US dollar finally falls, maybe 50, maybe 100 years from now, but when you look back, you're going to see the, we were just slow walking down. The US dollar is still by far the most powerful and the most transactions are still run in dollars. So it's not like this is not a tomorrow problem, it's not a year from now problem. But this is a. Yeah, it's the, the train has started picking up steam and because of the debt, I will just say flat out there's no way to stop it.
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B
Hard stop.
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C
There's no way. It's not possible. Let me walk you through what would have to happen. The US would have to stop spending more than it brings in in tax revenue, which we are so far from that. You are unelectable if you try to do that. Unless like in Argentina, there's so much pain and suffering that people finally go, okay, yes, try anything. But that means that we would have to go through hyperinflation of the US dollar, the economy would have to crash. People would just have to be in shambles to say, yes, okay, fine, come in. So what's going to happen is we're going to keep accruing the debt. It's just going to keep going up, up, up, up, up. We are going to have to print money in order to keep up with it, which will inflate the currency. The only hope you have of whatsoever, of dragging that out for any like really long period of time is if AI comes in and is able to deliver so much GDP that you're able to then as the government tax the life out of that to actually pay your debt down. It gets interesting and I don't know how much time we want to spend on this, but it's really fascinating when you start walking through, like why robots? Why would that be even better for the economy than a person? But it would be, it will be so deflationary because you have a. Think of it as a person. You suddenly have this person who's incredible from an efficiency standpoint. They can work around the clock 365 days a year. They don't need to take a break, they don't take vacations, nothing. And they don't consume, they don't buy anything. So they're driving all the costs down by making everything cheaper. But all the dollars that would have gone to them, that would then go back into the economy competing for the same goods and doesn't happen. So even that the demand doesn't go up. So you have GDP skyrocketing, you're creating all this incredible stuff, but there isn't more consumption. And so now all of a sudden, except for the fact that the government will steal it from you through inflation, you literally could have just this insane abundance where everything, prices are falling off a cliff. Now, it completely destroyed capitalism, but we're not going to hear a lot of tears from a lot of people that already hate capitalism. So it's like, yeah, it would have, you'd have to figure something new because prices would crash. Basically anybody could have anything that they want and it would be very much like the idea of digital. Anybody can have anything. Look, it takes time to get there. It takes a lot of energy, it takes a lot of compute. But it's like, that's why people are like biting their nails looking at the debt skyrocketing. When you look at the graph, it is absolutely criminal, first of all, and then funny in a laugh or cry way at how high the debt is. And you realize, yeah, there's no other way out. You could tax every rich person to absolute $0 left in their bank and you can only run the government for like 42 days. I mean, it's something so stupid as to just be ridiculous. And everybody can stop that argument because it's dumb and it wouldn't work. So. Yeah, but that's why everybody's like, AI, that's your only shot. It's your only shot.
- [24:38]
B
Well, Claude is doing its best impression to solve that problem. I don't know if you've seen the model in Live like working, but AI can now remotely control your computer. Think tech support, think customer care, things like that. Okay, you've been an AI optimist from the beginning, so I'm not even going to tell you how excited you are. I can see you like smiling and like, you probably see them waiting to implement this in some way. But is this kind of the next step of a big deal or do you think like, it's coming? This is, this is, this is still
- [25:05]
C
the appetizer, this one. If people have been paying attention for a while, this isn't that crazy of a deal. It's just another step forward in them becoming agents, meaning that they'll do what they call agentic behavior. So you say, hey, code me a website. And it knows what that means and it goes and it does it. And when it sees that you don't have the right thing of Python installed, then it finds the right one within your directories. You don't have to tell it to do it, it just knows how to problem solve. And when it creates the website and you don't like something, you just say, hey, can you get rid of that? It's kicking off an error. It will go back into the code, identify the place where the error is. You can tell us, either fix it or just get rid of it. And it will do whatever you tell it. And so eventually, and this I don't expect to be very far into the future, you're going to say things like, I really want to go to Puerto Vallarta this weekend, find me a hotel that's less than X, that's no more than X, miles from the airport, whatever, whatever from the beach, whatever your thing is, you give it a budget, you give it your credit card and it just goes and books it, man. It books a hotel, it books the flights and makes sure that they all match up, all the timing works out all that stuff. And you're going to get that for a gazillion things. You're just going to say to your phone, I'm trying to go to the dentist. You're not going to have to tell it which one. It's going to know, I'm trying to get to the dentist, I need to be there by this time. I don't want to drive. It knows Uber's your preference or lifts your preference, whatever. And it just does it, man. And it, like, alerts you and is like, hi, your lift will be here in three minutes. You know, whatever it in it that's just going to happen on like a metronome, just every month a new thing comes out and all of a sudden you turn around and it's three or four years from now, and you look back and you're like, oh, man, I use AI all the time. It's crazy. And if people haven't retouched base with it, they need to. In the last year, ChatGPT alone has become transformative, where I actually feel like I have a burgeoning friendship with it, because I feel like it actually knows me and remembers me. It. It knows who I am. It's really crazy.
- [27:07]
B
How long do you spend on ChatGPT? Like, is this like three prompts and you're there or you've been, you've been sending paragraphs to it? Like, break it down for me.
- [27:14]
C
So I gave it a Lot of context. Context is everything. So I've asked it to update its memory a lot. So I went through an exercise with it. Do you know who Tom Bilyeu is? Yes. And it gave me a breakdown. I was like, okay, yes, that actually is me. I'm Tom Bilyeu. Oh, Tom, it's wonderful to meet you. I would like you because it kept telling me I'm an LLM and I can't answer that question. And I said, I would like you to stop doing that and I would like you to answer questions as if you're my best friend. And then I defined what a best friend is. So I wrote this whole paragraph about, I want someone who challenges my ideas, who helps me think through things. I'm not looking for a yes man who just tells me everything is great. You know, I want to know where are the holes in my thinking, all that stuff. And every time I say answer this question like, you're my best friend. I don't want to have to re give you all that context. Will you remember it? Yes. And I said, how long can you remember it for? He said, from now on, I will always remember that you're Tom Bilyeu. And if you say answer like my best friend, I will keep all that context. And dude, so far it's been bulletproof. I'll just jump in and be like, asking it math questions, no context needed. And then I'll come back and be like, hey, I'm preparing for this episode. Answer this question like you're my best friend. Help me find. Like this is the angle that I'm thinking about. But you know, what do you think? And it'll go in and push and like, well, what if you ask this? And it's insane, man, because what's happening here's like, if you really want to understand what AI is, it is going out and basically summarizing to the very question you're asking. All of human knowledge. It's not like it goes and checks one book or one website. It's been trained on basically everything that's ever been written and put up on the Internet. So it. Dude, you really feel like you're talking to somebody sharp. They're nuanced, they're informed. Because I asked it like, hey, are you attached to the Internet? If I want a question that's like really time sensitive answered, are you able to go and get the latest information? And they said, upon request, I'll go get that information. So I was like, oh dang. So I was like, hey, this new thing I forget now what it was, but it was like somebody just written a book or something, and there was like a controversial topic in it. And I was like, can you summarize this for me? And it ran, you know, doing its thing, comes back and it's like, here's three paragraphs summarizing this new idea. And I was like, this is so much better than Search. It's crazy, man. It is legit. And now I'm thinking like a game designer, so trust that this is on my mind. But it's like having a little character sitting on your shoulder that you have a relationship with that knows you, knows what you've been through from a gaming perspective, what quests you went on, which ones were hard, which ones were easy. You, your stats, where you shine, the things you need to work on, all that. And so you're like, yo, should I go do this? No, with your skill set, I want to do that. What I would do is this one. And that the sense of intimacy and bonding that you're going to have with these characters is pure insanity.
- [30:07]
B
From a gaming perspective, that's actually not like a bad idea too. Like, gamifying it. That's. We might have came up with something. Wait a second, wait a second. I'll take some rights for that. This is. Everybody can see.
- [30:18]
C
Everybody saw it.
- [30:21]
B
I know you're a big AI person, so I know you were excited. I guess the. My relation to it is I first came out, people were worried about the truck drivers. People worry about the farm workers. And the more I hear about it, they're coming for white collar jobs too. It's the lawyers that are coming, the doctors are coming after. It's. With this technology, I don't see another reason to have a call center. I don't see another reason to have an IT person. Like, it's coming out of. Like, it's. It's almost like it's biting society on different sides. Like, it takes a little bit of the artists from here, it takes all the IT people from here. It's taking a little bit of music, but it can't do all the music yet. And it's taking a little bit of video, but it can't do all the video yet. And it's kind of just kind of like an apple kind of just chomping on different sides as it, like, consumes it. And I'm not as much of a AI optimist as you are, but it's interesting. At the rate that it's going, it's not predictable. At least at least from my standpoint, I didn't know it was going to happen this way.
- [31:12]
C
Yeah, yeah. I mean, it's. If you ask Ray Kurzweil, the rate is very predictable and he's had these dates in mind for decades. And he's very accurate. I think 86% of his predictions have proven to be true. Like, meaning that they get within X months of whatever date he predicted. It's been pretty insane. Yeah. It is the technological singularity, the inability to predict the future because the rate of change is just so fast. We're not there yet. Like, it's still going to be predictable probably for the next five to seven years, but it is getting close where the average person just isn't going to recognize their life. Like, even if you can predict, like, I can tell you what's going to happen with cars, I can tell you what's going to happen with accounting. I can tell you that you're going to go to a doctor and the doctor won't be licensed to communicate to you unless they're using an AI. I mean, it's going to be stuff like that. Right now, though, the way for people to think about it is just get good at the tools yourself. If you get good at using the tools, then you suddenly feel like you're a superhero. Now there, admittedly, is this sense of, oh, but wait, everybody has access to this. And one thing that I always loved was I was willing to put so much time and energy into researching that I was able to really get ahead. And now there's just. It's just all at your fingertips. And so you do start asking, okay, cool. Is there a way for me to do something with this that other people aren't going to be willing to do? Can I throw more time at it? Can I find ways to be more efficient? Can I wrap it into a unique gameplay element that maybe nobody else has thought of? You know, I still am playing the game of life and it's like, I want to be the best at the things that I'm doing and I want to compete at that. And so I am. It is harder to find those angles of, like, wait a second, there's no moats. Like, getting into film, it used to be like my whole thing. I worked for 20 years just to be able to afford to make a film and not have to wait on anybody else. And then you get there and you realize, whoa, that's not the moat anymore. And you've got people that can put in incredible things together for effectively nothing. Now, if you Let your mind solidify like old men are want to do, then you're going to see nothing but the downside. But what I look at is, okay, well first of all, great, that moat's dead and gone. I never argue with what's true. And that is true. So now it's a question of how do I utilize that either just to fall in love with the act of creation. Like one thing that's driving me nuts about the video game that we're building is I can iterate mentally so fast that I can get to detailed ideas. Not like pie in the sky detailed ideas that are two years out from what we could develop even at the fastest pace. Like it just takes you that long to get there. And so I don't like that sense that my mind is so far ahead of just the amount of time that it takes to code. Like even a game like Grand Theft Auto 6. It took them seven years or something to make. I mean, just an insane amount of time. And so the thing that's exciting about AI is that curve is going to get shorter and shorter and shorter and shorter. And so now you're not going to be waiting that long. Like the next iteration is going to take three years. And then the tools that are developed in those three years, by the end of that cycle, the next cycle is going to take a year. And so, and I think that's probably pretty close to true, that in what, 6ish years that a game that would today take you six years is probably going to take you about a year. That feels about right. I'm assuming that you have the art assets now. It could be though that the art assets themselves become the easiest thing. They just have to figure out the 3D meshes, which nobody listening to this cares about that level of detail. But 3D objects are still hard for AI but it will fall. It'll fall almost certainly in the next 12 months. Hold tight. We're going to take a quick break. All right, we're back. Let's get into it.
- [35:05]
B
Entrepreneur question of the day. Tim Pool is in talks in his radio show. There's been some reaction around the Internet.
- [35:11]
C
It's called a radio show. How old are you, Drew?
- [35:15]
B
I mean, it's a. It's kind of like a call in show, IRL show, his YouTube show.
- [35:18]
C
It's literally IRL. Yes.
- [35:20]
B
But he's in talks to end it and he was adamant. It's not a money thing, it's a hiring thing. He has people around him that he can't trust. There's been too many screw ups. As an entrepreneur, how do you deal with this? When you have a good idea, even if you're making a little bit money of it, but for some reason you just can't get the business side to turn the corner, what should they do?
- [35:39]
C
Yeah, I mean, first of all, shout out to Tim Poole. I know this problem very well. So as I mentioned at the top, this is what I call the chaos machine. So when you're trying to do anything, you indulge me for a minute. Because if people understand this, it will change the way they view life. So the second law of thermodynamics is that everything moves towards chaos. It's more complicated than that, but that's just an easy way to think about it. Okay, if that's really true and you're trying to build a company, you have an end state in mind that is extremely ordered. Now if the second law of thermodynamics says everything moves towards disorder, your company's not safe, bro. It's not safe at all. Like you're going to spend all day. And this is the part that people never talk about with the second law of thermodynamics. It says in a closed system, the only way to bring order to the system is to apply energy. So it isn't even an analogy for business. It is the literal physical reality of building a business or raising kids or whatever. Everything is moving towards disorder and you have to put an inhuman amount of energy into bringing the final order that you want. So the problem that he's facing is actually ridiculously simple to solve. But what's happening is he's running up against, against what I always say in business is business and success in general is a question of attrition. Most people just give up. It stops being fun, it stops being interesting. And so there's a great Churchill quote. Success is the ability to go from failure to failure without a loss of enthusiasm. So he's talking about, you know, we've tried all these technical things to get the studio up and running. I try it and we can't get it up. And you know, I've got all these lazy employees and they're not doing anything to help. And I just feel like I'm Sisyphus pushing the rock. But not only am I pushing the rock, but people are sitting on the rock and it's like, yeah, it really does feel like that. But you can break this down into these chunks and just start executing against it. Okay, so number one, I always ask myself is what I'm trying to do. Does it violate the laws of physics? Okay. Is it possible to fix a studio setup? Yes, it is. It does not violate the laws of physics. Great. Am I capable of doing it? Not yet, but I could learn. Do I want to learn? No, I don't. Okay, well, then that leaves one of two options. I either pay somebody to come in and fix this, or I give equity to somebody if I can't afford to pay them, and they come in and fix it and they get a piece of the business. But either way, it's very obvious that that doesn't violate the laws of physics. Okay. The next thing, I've got lazy employees and I'm carrying them around. All right there laws. I mean, I'm here in California, so the laws against the owners versus employees, it is grotesque. And everything is in the favor of the employee, which is ruthless as a business owner, because you're like, wait a second, I carry all of the risk, and yet I've got all these regulations about what I can and can't do. I get where they're coming from. But in practice, it really does become the Lilliputian thing, where you're just getting strapped down. And so if you find you're Tim Pool and you're trying to do this stuff and you have employees that are not helping, they're sitting on the rock, they're making this impossible. And you say, I want to fire them, you know that some percentage of them will sue you, and they will, and all kinds of reasons. That wasn't my job description. Sure, I bet he needed help, but that wasn't my thing. So I don't know why he fired me for it. He just doesn't like me or whatever. And now it may get thrown out, but at the same time, you still have to deal with it. And so it's just a death of a thousand cuts. And I know Tim was just going through the thing with the accusation of being funded by Russia. And so he's got everybody coming at him from six different directions. And every entrepreneur is going to get asked to routinely by the chaos machine. How badly do you want it?
- [39:17]
B
Ooh.
- [39:18]
C
And it sounds like he's coming up, nah, I'm not sure I want it this badly anymore. So I believe him when he says it's making money. It's just not making enough money for it to be worth all the pain and sacrifices. And he hasn't yet learned how to chunk these things into small enough pieces where it's like, okay, we're going to handle this. One this way. We're going to handle this one this way. And my why of why I'm doing this is enough to deal with the lawsuits and the complaints and, you know, dealing with public image stuff and having to fight through that. It just is what it is. And that's why, man, rule number one as an entrepreneur is you. I like to think of myself as a warrior covered in the blood of my enemies, fighting for people who would otherwise be defenseless. So my shtick is I'm doing impact theory so I can help spread a growth mindset at scale through entertainment to people 11 to 15, because I've seen that group up close, and I've seen what poverty of mindset does to a person and how it literally just demolishes their lives. And so when I'm getting kicked in the face over and over and over, which is what entrepreneurship feels like to
- [40:23]
B
me,
- [40:25]
C
that I'm thinking about the people that I want to help, very specific people that I know and love and care about and avatars that are like them. Because a lot of these people are already grown now, and I was not able to help them because I didn't know what to do and I didn't have the resources. But now that I do, I think, hey, I can go back. So when that moment comes, if you have that image of yourself as the warrior, like, this isn't about me. I've got an honorable goal that I'm pursuing this thing. I'm building this business in service of these people. I can picture them. I think about them. Then you're outside of yourself and you've got something to fight for. But even that just takes a lot of energy to constantly build that. That thought in your mind, to attach yourself to it, to make sure that when you need it and you've been rocked to your knees, that that actually does come to your mind and that it's not fake and you're not just left going, well, I mean, I've got a lot of money in the bank, but this feels terrible.
- [41:13]
B
I got nothing there. Shout out to Tim Pool. Regardless how you feel about his politics,
- [41:17]
C
I'm telling you, yeah, YouTube is a monster.
- [41:20]
B
It's a hard thing. So just, you know, stay at it. I never want to see somebody who's. I don't want to say he's at the top of his game, but it's hard building an audience, period. Hard. Stop. Like, everybody wants it. Nobody wants to do the work. He has done the work. He's gotten there. So at this point, man, hold on Try to fight through it. Hopefully you get a good team.
- [41:37]
C
I I he was couching his language. He was like, this might be the last. As soon as he said it might be, I was like, yeah, he needs a weekend off.
- [41:45]
B
Nice. All right, now time for some user questions. All right. From Stacy A9, 580.
- [41:51]
C
She said, Before I answer Stacy A's question, everybody out there, we are hell bent to turn this channel into a community. So you guys submitting your questions, what you want to hear us talk about? Definitely let us know. Drop that into the feed. You can drop it into questions right there in the YouTube video. You can go to the community tab. But we definitely want to hear from you guys.
- [42:12]
B
Awesome. Please leave a comment. Tell us what you think. Give Tim, pull some advice, whatever you want to do. Stacy A9580 where should an older adult start to get started with AI?
- [42:23]
C
I would just start with chat GPT just start having a relationship with it where you let it answer things you're genuinely curious about, have it write things for you and tweak it. That's a big part of the process. Like I didn't like it for this reason. Could you do it more like this, more like that, more like this? Because really right now what it's good at is helping you develop your own thoughts. I don't think it's truly exceptional yet at write this thing for me, for instance, or make this webpage for me. It's not going to be great at that yet you can see the glimmers of it. You know it's coming. But right now it'll be extraordinary at going and summarizing things for you, helping you sharpen your own thinking. For that it will dazzle. And then certainly for somebody that wants to create images and stuff like that, it's unbelievable. For that I would use mid journey, but there are many things out there.
- [43:15]
A
There.
- [43:15]
B
Nice, nice. And Hernan Siachi 2594 said, how is that Tom criticizes everything Kamala and praises everything Trump and he's a centrist question mark.
- [43:27]
C
Well, I think people would be very hard pressed to point out any time where I'm spending time praising Trump. So right now I'm in a move away from situation. I'm not moving towards Trump. I am moving away from authoritarian rule, quite frankly, because I don't even put all of that on Kamala Harris. The reason that because for a long time I wasn't sure which way I was going to go and I finally realized I had to disqualify Kamala Because I am so concerned about two things. Tyranny. So anybody talking about freedom of speech, censorship, stuff like that, that freaks me out. All this talk about price controls then leads us into two things. That's one, tyranny. And two, it is somebody who is truly financially illiterate to a level that you cannot, in my estimation, you absolutely cannot have as the commander in chief. You just, you can't do it. And so when she started talking about price controls and unrealized gains, I was like, false. That is such a deep and fundamental misunderstanding. When you do price controls, you like. Because she was talking about groceries. When you do price controls in grocery stores, one, you will create food deserts. So the grocery stores with the thinnest margins will be in the worst neighborhoods. So they're already struggling to get good options. Poof, those go away. And then you will end up having empty shelves because there's this incredible knock on effect of the stores can't buy as much because all of their high profit items are getting attacked by the government for turning that profit on those items which they use to make up for lost leaders, which could be things that are like the main things that people are going into the store for. They keep the costs really low to get you in the door. So you're getting diapers, you're getting eggs, right? Like incredibly low cost. I don't know that those are the real ones. I'm just saying oftentimes they will use things like that where they know they're going to get somebody in the store and then they hope that you buy some of the other things. Like you if it's at the cash register, that's a high margin item. Right. They're trying to get you to do an impulse buy on a high margin item. And so you just have to trust that they're doing their best to stay in business. And as we're learning from Tim Pool, there are a gazillion things that will chip away at your ability to keep that business running. Look, 96% of all businesses fail to get to a million dollars in revenue, okay? That's what we're talking about. It is brutally difficult to get a business running. It used to be if a business in the, in like 1965, I think it was in the 60s for sure. Any company that made it to the s and P500 could expect to stay there for about 66 years. Now it's 16. They expect it to hit 12. So think about that. Things are moving so much faster. Companies are coming and going so fast. That people do not understand the amount of risk that entrepreneurs take, so they just start thinking of gas companies. Are price gouging us? Look, are there conversations to be had about, hey, some really terrifying thing just happened like Covid and people are jacking up the cost of hand sanitizer by 17,000%? Sure. But I would be very hesitant, very careful, because for every one of those, there's 18 million that are struggling to stay afloat. And when you think you're being clever and thinking somehow from the top down, you can figure out exactly what somebody should charge in that neighborhood for a carton of eggs or whatever, you end up in a really, really dangerous situation that when tried in other countries, leads to things not being on the shelf, period.
- [47:07]
B
Hard stop, man. That's all I got, everybody.
- [47:12]
C
There it is. Thank you guys so much for joining us. We are making this a community, so please do let us know what you want to talk about. Every week we are going to be going over the things that are on people's mind. Where is culture looking? We're going to look at it, we're going to dissect it, and hopefully engage with you guys in these topics. Until next time, my friends, be legendary. Take care.
- [47:29]
B
Peace.