The Middle East Is Destabilizing Faster Than Anyone Predicted, Political Poker: Trump, the Draft, Voting Laws, and Immigration Policy, and 5 More Headlines YOU Need to Know This Week | Weekly Recap

Summary

Impact Theory Podcast: Weekly Recap (March 15, 2026)

Episode Theme:
Tom Bilyeu and his team break down this week’s top headlines, focusing on rapid geopolitical destabilization in the Middle East, U.S. political maneuvers (Trump, the draft, voting laws, immigration), and critical insights into media, tech, and global events. The conversation explores spin, narrative framing, and the difficulty of discerning truth in complex, fast-moving news cycles.

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1. Challenging the Headlines & Media Narrative

Paternity Test Laws in France (01:10–01:40)

• Key Point: Meme-driven news confuses reality; private paternity tests are illegal in France, punishable with fines and jail.
• Quote:
  • Kevin (01:44): “I am so triggered right now…whenever somebody says you can’t know the truth about something. I am irate.”
• Takeaway: The danger of legal barriers to truth, and how media (and memes) distort nuance.

CNN and Framing of Terrorist Attacks (05:06–07:17)

• Key Point: Critique of CNN's initial tweet sympathetically framing teen bombers in NYC and their later retraction.
• Quotes:
  • Kevin (05:33): “This is like writing about 9/11… seven hijackers were enjoying a wonderful warm day… when suddenly their lives were changed as they crashed planes into a building.”
  • Drew (07:08): “That was a nice way to say I messed up.”
• Insight: Media language choices shape public perception, often downplaying severity or offering manipulative spin—even retractions can keep the frame.

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2. Political Poker: Trump, Draft, Voting, Appointments

Trump’s $300 Billion Refinery Announcement (02:04–03:23)

• Key Point: Trump claims America is returning to “energy dominance” via a historic oil refinery deal with Indian investment.
• Quote:
  • Kevin (02:54): “Lowering, creating jobs, all of that stuff is awesome. But in terms of production efficiency…what was the real reason we stopped building?”
• Context: Discussion of energy independence, environmental trade-offs, and the need for solar innovation. U.S. seen as moving backward while China races ahead in renewables.

Potential Draft Discussion (15:04–16:44)

• Key Point: Administration leaves the draft “on the table.”
• Quote:
  • Kevin (15:48): “This one, to me, just feels like political suicide…poll numbers go down on that.”
• Insight: “Leaving all options open” is standard military rhetoric, but any mention of draft triggers enormous public fear and political risk.

Trump Appointing Erica Kirk to Air Force Board (07:17–08:19)

• Key Point: Public confusion over qualifications; the real rationale is tied to morale, discipline, optics.
• Quote:
  • Kevin (07:31): “Why would Charlie Kirk be advising the Air Force? …If she understands how to recruit and that’s what this is about, then just message it.”
• Insight: Sometimes decisions are made for signaling/optics, which may backfire if not communicated well.

Save America Act and Voting Laws (18:52–20:34)

• Key Point: Trump wants the Save America Act (requiring voter ID) passed before signing other bills; high bipartisan polling support for voter ID.
• Quote:
  • Kevin (19:25): “Your politicians are not working for you…In poll after poll, American people want there to be ID for voting, just full stop; they support it.”
• Insight: Use of political capital, hostage-taking with bills, and the persistent gap between political action and public desire.

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3. Destabilization in the Middle East: Iran, Oil, and Asymmetric Warfare

Strait of Hormuz Choke Point (26:22–29:03)

• Key Point: Iran disrupts global oil supply by attacking ships, deploying mines, raising insurance risks, and deterring traffic.
• Quote:
  • Kevin (26:42): “The Strait of Hormuz…is the area that everybody needs to pay attention to. The world’s oil supply literally just got choked a little harder…”
• Insight: Iran’s asymmetric tactics (“asymmetric warfare”) are highly effective; U.S. naval superiority not solving the bottleneck.

Decentralized Iranian Military Challenge (30:47–34:50)

• Key Point: Iranian military structure is so decentralized, even decapitating leadership may not end conflict.
• Quotes:
  • Kevin (31:34): “The decentralized military that Iran is running…runs the risk of becoming essentially a well-armed headless chicken that can't be stopped.”
  • Drew (33:00): “Is this a unique problem…or is it something we knew was coming?”
• Insight: Iran’s structure makes negotiation exit strategies nearly impossible; the regime’s opacity and rumors about leadership health further muddy the picture.

U.S. and Israeli Radar Infrastructure Degraded (34:28–38:27)

• Key Point: Iran takes out radar systems, causing concern but not collapse. Social media exaggerates, but verified reports confirm some vulnerability.
• Quote:
  • Kevin (35:08): “We're still in the early weeks of this war, so I wouldn't get too hysterical yet…Whatever damage they're doing…it’s going to be less than we’re doing to them.”
• Tactical Note: Replacement costs, genuine hits, but not catastrophic. Both sides experiencing attrition.

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4. U.S. Domestic Issues: Immigration, Demographics, Welfare (20:34–21:59)

• Key Point: Demographic division in voter support, access to welfare, and impact on budget deficit.
• Quote:
  • Kevin (21:00): “The deficit spending is the very thing that is making it impossible for working and middle class Americans to get by.”
• Insight: Arguments that illegal immigration’s short-term economic benefit can turn negative long-term; the numbers are used to stoke animosity.

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5. Tech and Media Power Shifts

YouTube Surpassing Major Studios (08:27–09:59)

• Key Point: YouTube now pulls greater ad revenue than Disney, Paramount, and Warner combined.
• Quote:
  • Kevin (08:45): “YouTube has become a part of the fabric of people’s everyday life…it is infinite TV channels that every niche is so deep and so specific, it's crazy.”
• Insight: Fragmentation of media, power shift from traditional media to platforms with endless “channels.”

Audience Trust in Film & Reviews (09:59–10:12)

• Key Point: Rotten Tomatoes scores—critics vs. audience split.
• Quote:
  • Kevin (10:14): “Critics have disgraced themselves year after year, movie after movie. So I’ll wait for the audience score on this one.”

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6. Geopolitical Speculation: Trump Era and World Outcomes

• Key Point: Trump’s approach as a historic gamble—a hundred years from now, he may be viewed as either a reckless destabilizer or a bold strategist who remade the world order (16:44–18:52).
• Quote:
  • Kevin (16:44): “Imagine having 100 years of distance from this moment and what this will look like, because at that point it's just outcomes…It still remains up in the air.”

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7. Memorable Moments & Tone

• Passionate Rants: Kevin’s outrage over French paternity test laws (01:44), and CNN’s manipulated narratives (05:33).
• Cynicism about Political Optics: “Why would [Erica/Charlie] Kirk be advising the Air Force?” (07:31)
• Sobering Realism: “Both sides are being degraded…These hits ain’t coming cheap, man.” (35:08)

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Timestamps Index

• [01:13–01:44] — French Paternity Test Laws
• [02:04–03:23] — Trump’s Oil Deal
• [05:06–07:17] — CNN Framing Terror Attacks
• [07:17–08:19] — Erica Kirk’s Appointment
• [08:27–09:59] — YouTube Surpasses Film Studios
• [09:59–10:12] — Rotten Tomatoes & Critic/Audience Divide
• [15:04–16:44] — Draft Rumors & Political Risks
• [16:44–18:52] — Trump as Historical Figure
• [18:52–20:34] — Voting ID Debate & Political Tactics
• [20:34–21:59] — Immigration, Welfare, Demographics
• [26:22–29:03] — Strait of Hormuz, Oil, Shipping Attacks
• [30:47–34:50] — Iran’s Decentralized Military Problem
• [34:28–38:27] — Radar Infrastructure Degraded
• [38:43–38:56] — U.S. Operations in Venezuela, Cuba, Ecuador

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Conclusion

This week’s Impact Theory lands as a sweeping, provocative look at how politics, media, tech, and war intersect, creating a landscape where facts are spun, alliances and risks shift rapidly, and it’s almost impossible to discern winners and losers in real-time. Tom and his team urge listeners to remain skeptical of both headlines and “official” narratives, think critically, and consider not just what is said—but how and why it's framed.

“We're in it. Let's hope that we come out the other side in a position that's not only good for the US but good for all of these individual countries. And if that ends up happening, it would be ridiculously historic work. But what a gamble.” (Kevin, 38:43)

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Transcript

[Kevin]

Reggie, I just sold my car online. Let's go, Grandpa. Wait, you did? Yep. On Carvana. Just put in the license plate, answered a few questions, got an offer in minutes. Easier than setting up that new digital picture frame. You don't say. Yeah, they're even picking it up tomorrow. Talk about fast. Wow. Way to go. So about that picture frame. Ah, forget about it. Until Carvana makes one, I'm not interested. Car selling made easy on Carvana. Pickup fees may apply. Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same Premium Wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying. It's not just for celebrities. So do like I did and have one of your assistant's assistants switch you to Mint Mobile today. I'm told it's super easy to [e-mail] Switch upfront payment of $45 for 3

[Drew]

month plan equivalent to $15 per month.

[Kevin]

Required intro rate first 3 months only. Then full price plan options available, taxes and fees, extra fee, full [e-mail] Alright,

[Drew]

I got some quick hits for us to and cover. There's been a lot of news stories that happen. I ended up grabbing the mean meme of this headline. I forgot the actual headline because you know me, I'm here for the jokes.

[Kevin]

Drew's meme first.

[Drew]

Yes, I'm always mean first. French women.

[Kevin]

What is this?

[Drew]

At such a level that paternity tests are illegal because how it would destroy the French society if the women were held accountable for their actions.

[Kevin]

No way. That can't be true.

[Drew]

This is a framing. This is a framing. So that's why it's funny. But friends did bid fraternity testing.

[Kevin]

That can't be true.

[Drew]

I'm telling you. I just can't find actual artists because

[Kevin]

I was laughing at these.

[Drew]

I would die. Paternity tests are illegal in France.

[Kevin]

I don't know if that changes anything with the headline. Private paternity tests are illegal and it

[Drew]

results in up to a 15,000 fine

[Kevin]

and one year in prison. What?

[Drew]

You can't yet do a behind your wife's bet.

[Kevin]

I am so triggered right now. Whenever somebody says you can't know the truth about something. I am irate. You must be joking. I want to move to France just to protest that. That is. I am. It is grotesque that I am part French hearing this. I can't. I can't abide this. That is so crazy.

[Drew]

Trump just announced a really big win yesterday. A $300 billion deal. This is from his true social Account. America's returning to real energy dominance. Today, I am proud to announce the America first refinery is opening the first new US oil refinery in 50 years in Brownsville, Texas. This is a historic $300 billion deal, the biggest in US history, a massive win for American workers.

[Kevin]

Does anyone ever raise people like it?

[Drew]

Drew, it's. Nobody's ever seen anything like this.

[Kevin]

Can't imagine.

[Drew]

Thank you to our partners in India and their largest privately held energy company, Reliance, for this tremendous investment is because of our America first agenda. Streamlining permits and lowering taxes that have attracted billions of dollars in deals coming back to our nation. A new refinery at the port of Brownsville will fuel U.S. markets, strengthen our national security, boost American oil production, deliver billions of dollars in economic impact, and will be the cleanest refinery in the world. It will power global exports and bring thousands of long overdue jobs and grow to a region that deserves it. This is what American energy dominance looks like, as always, America First.

[Kevin]

Yeah. So, admittedly, halfway through that tweet, he was just flirting with me. Lowering, creating jobs, all of that stuff is awesome. Now, in terms of efficiency of production and things like that, I'd be curious to know if we stopped doing it because we didn't have the right refineries, if we stopped doing it purely for environmental reasons, like what the reasoning is there, I don't know the history of.

[Drew]

It's definitely what the EPA rollbacks. There's a lot of EPA rollbacks that opened up domestic energy production. So now that's why you kind of flipped the switch with.

[Kevin]

Yeah, because my thing is, listen, it's going to happen somewhere in the world. So we're really not escaping much from an environmental hazard perspective. Also, environmental hazards are very important. People should absolutely pay attention to them. Climate change is very real. It just isn't at the catastrophe level that people would want you to believe when you've got even Bill Gates reversing his tune on that. I think that we can all agree that it's a big deal, it should be paid attention to, but it shouldn't be your number one primary driver focusing on harnessing the energy of the sun. I mean, which is exactly what China is doing, by the way. Which the thing that I will say in China's defense is they're moving away from oil as fast as they can, orders of magnitude faster than any other country that I know of on planet Earth. It is just a fact of literal matter that the sun makes up 99.99998% of all the matter in the Solar system. And so for us it's like, what are you going to burn on Earth that's going to match what's falling on the Earth coming from the sun? I mean, it's just so minuscule when you think about the plant matter on Earth or the oil under the ground, you know, old dinosaur bones, old plants that you're going to extract as oil. It's nothing compared to if you could just get good at capturing the sun. So we should be focused on that. We should be racing towards that in the same way that China is. We should be reducing our dependence on oil and the need to do all of that. But while we do that transition, we should be making sure that we're energy independent. And if that means spinning oil refineries so that we're not reliant on the Middle east, way better situation. If that makes us an energy exporter, it's creating jobs, great. It's not my favorite kind of manufacturing to bring back to the US but I'll take it.

[Drew]

We have to talk about the CNN thing. So CNN originally tweeted, two Pennsylvania teenagers crossed into New York City Saturday morning for it could have been a normal day enjoying the city during abnormally warm weather. But in less than an hour their lives would be drastically changed as the pair would be arrested for throwing homemade during an anti Muslim protest outside of Meher Zoran Mamdani's home. Here's what we know so far that this was their write up about the domestic terrorist attack that happened in New York.

[Kevin]

This is crazy, man.

[Drew]

Wild.

[Kevin]

Listen, the, the example that people give, and I think it is a phenomenal one, is this is like writing about nine, 11, you know, whatever, seven hijackers or however many there were, were enjoying a wonderful warm day in September in the city when suddenly their lives were changed as they crashed planes into a building. It's like, what are you doing? Now they've done a retraction. But even in the retraction they were still like downplaying the bomb didn't go off. But if it had, the kids of their own admission said we were hoping to kill more people than they killed. In the Boston city bombing. They have detonated the explosive devices so they know they were real. These kids were trying to kill people and so like to frame it like that is just so gross and so ridiculous. And the fact that this kind of stuff works. The reason that I wanted to cover this is I just want to remind everybody you guys are being spun all the time. Even I am making word choices all the time. Everybody is trying to lock you in their frame of reference now. Boy, am I doing a lot of work to try to make sure that my frame of reference is tied to reality, which I think is the highest utility thing to do versus a narrative. But goodness gracious, like, this kind of thing is so ridiculous that I can't believe how naked it's become. The just blatant manipulation. And so just remember, your favorite politician is doing this to you. It isn't just the people that you hate.

[Drew]

CNN retraction said a post regarding the two individuals arrested for throwing homemade bombs outside of New York City's Mayor Zoram Hamdani's home failed to reflect the gravity of the incident, thereby breaching the editorial standards we require for all our reporting. It has therefore been deleted.

[Kevin]

Go like they're so wild.

[Drew]

That was a nice way to say I messed up.

[Kevin]

That's a nice way of saying we manipulate you. We don't want you to know it. Even this retraction is further manipulation and downplay. Downplay.

[Drew]

Next up and quick hits. President Trump has appointed Erica Kirk to the US Air Force leadership. Erica Kirk will advise. Yes. The Air Force on issues affecting the Academy.

[Kevin]

Wait, what?

[Drew]

And I think this is a perfectly timed Kanye meme. What does she know about the Air Force?

[Kevin]

What does she know about the Air. Does she know something about the Air Force? I literally don't understand. So what's the messaging around this?

[Drew]

Why are they literally the full story? She's brought on as an advisor to the Air Force leadership to help support the next wave. I think it's optics, because I think

[Kevin]

Charlie Kirk was supposed to get the role. Okay, but I'll ask the same question about Charlie Kirk. Why would Charlie Kirk be advising the Air Force? I don't understand. So listen, there might be a. If we're saying these guys are so good at recruiting, you have no idea. We want them to teach us their ways. I totally get it. So it's like, if she understands how to recruit and that's what this is about, then just message it.

[Drew]

But this is from Fox News. President Trump appoints Erica Kirk to serve on the US Air Force Academy Board of Visitors, taking the position her late husband Charlie was slated to hold before he was assassinated as September. Now Erica joins a panel that oversees moral discipline curriculum and fiscal affairs at the Academy.

[Kevin]

Okay. Morale, discipline, curriculum. All right, it seems weird. I don't expect this to be universally liked, but whatever.

[Drew]

Next on the quick hit. YouTube surpassed Disney, Paramount, Warner Brothers in 2025 in ad revenue. Not those three individually combined. YouTube alone has more ad revenue than Disney, Paramount and Warner Brothers Discovery.

[Kevin]

No one should be surprised by this.

[Drew]

It's officially the largest media company in the world, bro.

[Kevin]

They are so power. People don't understand. Like, YouTube has become a part of the fabric of people's everyday life. It's the one thing where no matter how my mom with YouTube and then if I like run into somebody's kids and I'm like, oh, like, you know, what do you watch? The odds of them saying YouTube are basically 100%. The odds of them saying TikTok is high. But YouTube is basically 100%. Like, it is just where people go to watch, you know, their whatever influencer. And the cool thing about YouTube is it can be anything, man. Like, when I look at it, it is startling. If you go and type in Millennial gaming review, you're gonna go into a universe. If you type in like kids gaming, the universe is so different. It is the same thing gaming, influencers in gaming. But when I say that they are night and day different, it is wild. But it's all on the same platform. And that is the brilliance of YouTube is it is infinite TV channels that every niche is so deep and so specific, it's crazy. So, yeah, YouTube you can expect to be here for a long time. But like we were talking about before we started rolling, nothing is forever and last.

[Drew]

On the quick hits for our movie heads out there, project Hail mary debuts with 95% on rotten tomatoes. Described as one of the best sci fi films of the decade anywhere. Friend of the show. He was on the show. Love him.

[Kevin]

Drew, what's the problem with with this

[Drew]

review that is on Rotten Tomatoes?

[Kevin]

Rotten Tomatoes is okay, but you've got a left review and a right review. You've got the review on the left side is critics only and the review on the right is audience critics have disgraced themselves year after year, movie after movie. So I'm going to wait until we get the audience score on this one. When I see a 95 to me that says critics tend to be wildly left leaning. So I'm like, okay, so this is a movie that people on the left love. Now if I remember from my time with Andy Weir, that is certainly in keeping. Now I will say that book was so good that I am very optimistic about this movie. The yeah, the book was phenomenal. If you at all like sci fi, it's so good. That book was written so well, man. Cheers to Andy Weir. He is absolutely brilliant. We're hitting pause for a moment but there's plenty more ahead, so don't go anywhere. The people who win, they're not smarter. They just absorb more ideas faster. They There are thousands of books right now on business, psychology, leadership, books that have already changed how the best operators think. And everyone you haven't read is a gap between you and the people who have. This is a bandwidth problem, not a discipline problem. And that's exactly what Blinkist was built to solve. It takes the world's best nonfiction books and distills them into 15 minute summaries you can read or listen to. It's got over 9,000 titles. We're talking atomic habits, Thinking fast and slow. The hard thing about hard things? Books you know you should have read by now. Done in the time it takes to drink your coffee. And because it's built for mobile, your commute becomes a classroom. Blinkist also sends you personalized recommendations so you actually build a daily learning practice instead of just planning to do one. Start your free trial at blinkist.com/ that's B L I N K I-t.com impact start learning aggressively today. It will change your life. Let's talk about a problem that is hiding in plain sight. You're using AI for everything now. Like everybody else, every single conversation is being stored, analyzed and used to build a profile on you. That's where Duck AI comes in. It is a new product from DuckDuckGo, the company that's been protecting privacy online since 2008. Duck AI lets you chat privately with ChatGPT, Claude and other popular AIs all in one place. Your conversations aren't used for tracking, training or profiling you. There's no account required and it's completely free. DuckDuckGo built this specifically for data protection, not data collection. They're designed to help stop your information from being stored, tracked or misused by hackers, scammers and data hungry companies. No signups, no subscriptions, no learning curve. Duck AI gives you access to the same AI tools you're already using, but without the privacy trade off. If you want to use AI without giving up your privacy, visit Duck. That's Duck AI/Impact. A private way to chat with AI from DuckDuckGo, where AI is always optional and private. A great wardrobe is not complicated. A few pieces that fit well, hold up over time and work in almost any situation. That's it. That's what you need. The problem is finding them without paying luxury prices. That's exactly what Quince is built around. I picked up one of their cashmere sweaters. And let me tell you, the softness is amazing. And the quality actually caught me off guard. This is 100% Mongolian cashmere. That makes it easy to build a great wardrobe. Lightweight cashmere linen bottoms, short sleeve Mongolian cashmere polos, Pima cotton tees, all amazing quality. And every factory they partner with meets rigorous standards for craftsmanship and ethical production. Right now go to quints.com impact pod for free shipping and 365 day returns. That's a full year to build your wardrobe and love it. And you will now available in Canada too. Go to Q U I n c e.com impact pod for free shipping and 365 day returns. That's quint.com impact pod thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action.

[Drew]

Karen Levitt casually threw out on the table that she might be okay with doing drafts. Trump is leaving all his options open.

[Kevin]

Mothers out there are worried that we're going to have a draft, that they're going to see their sons trying to set her up. And daughters take the eggs around this. What do you want to say about the president's plans for troops on the ground? As we know, it's been largely an air campaign up until now. It has been and it will continue to be. And President Trump wisely does not remove options off of the table. I know a lot of politicians like to do that quickly, but the president as commander in chief wants to continue to assess the success of this military operation. It's not part of the current plan right now, but the president again wisely keeps his options on the table.

[Drew]

Dude.

[Kevin]

So this one, to me just feels like political suicide. I mean, look, some people will just keep doubling down, doubling down, doubling down until they get that victory because they're at the table. And it's like, well, I'm down a half mil now. What's a million drew? And they just keep trying to dig themselves out of that hole. Now, I'm not saying that Trump is in a hole right now with Iran. I think it's too early to tell. But I think that the signs coming out for my money like this is showing that it's got legs. So in terms of remaining a conflict where you do not get the settled down aspect that you want quickly again, Trump could be today announcing. No, no, no. Like, we've worked something out. We'll see. But I think that would be him leaving Iran in its current state because you've just replaced the ayatollah with his son.

[Drew]

Yeah.

[Kevin]

So it's like his son who you just killed, like, half of his family members, including his wife, his mom, one of his kids. So it's like, this guy is not going to be like, hey, everybody, let's hold hands. You know what? I just want to.

[Drew]

I'm ready to make it happen.

[Kevin]

I want to forgive happened, everybody. If we could just say, you know, amen and love, Love your neighbor. I don't think that's what's going to come out of this. So I would be very shocked that there would be stability that would come out of that announcement if he makes it. We'll see. So, yeah, telling the American people that you are not going to remove a draft. Like, there's a one to one with poll numbers going down on that. So we'll see. We'll see. It is very interesting to look at Trump as a transformational figure. Imagine having 100 years of distance from this moment and what this will look like, because at that point, it's just outcomes. And so if this goes horribly awry, it's just like, what a moron. He was completely unhinged. This is what happens in a populist moment. You elect dictators and they go nuts and they run about the world and it all falls apart. Or if it all works, you look back and go, ooh, America finally elected a president that wasn't afraid to take action, who did the hard thing to isolate China. One of the few times, you know, they were coming up in an era where 12 of the last 16 times that a rising superpower collided with an established superpower, they ended up in war. And yet Trump somehow was able to isolate China by systematically going after these different proxies, breaking their access to oil, forcing them to move all to solar. And you know what I mean? Like, you can see how it, like, would break down where you look back at it and go, whoa. Like, actually a very impressive move. But if you looked at it, you would say, but what was it like on the ground at that time? Because everything is so uncertain and that's where we're all trapped, which is we don't have the historical perspective to know which way this is going to go. It still remains up in the air that, yeah, he could end up pulling this off. And pulling this off, to me means he stays in power long enough to make this economically advantageous to the U.S. not that it will ever be morally justifiable. I think that that's one of the things that people take away from me. And every now and then, I am so interested in just fighting with the people in chat that I see every now and then. But unfortunately that has not proven to be good tv. I will res. But yeah, I'm so curious to know what people's best take is like where this goes.

[Drew]

I'm going to have to put your feet to the fire here too because Trump is doubling down. This is his true social post. Great job by hardworking Scott Pressler on Fox and Friends talking about using the filibuster or chalking filibuster. In order to pass the Save America act, an 88% issue with all voters, it must be done immediately. It supersedes everything else must go to the front of the line. I as president will not sign other bills until this is passed. I want to just pause right there for a second because to your point, he's in the middle of the war, he has all these things working against him and now he's not going to pass anything else until the Save Act. It seems like he's definitely pushing his chips all into the middle with this one.

[Kevin]

Well, it's interesting, yes, I would say his chips are way more all in in Iran. Iran from a political standpoint is far scarier in terms of the Republican Party's future. This I think is one of the things that gets at the heart of your politicians are not working for you. In poll after poll after poll, American people want there to be ID for voting, just full stop, they support it. It's 88. I've never heard that poll. Maybe it's changed. I've seen 84 and that takes into account Democrats and all that. Like I think it polls for Democrats in the upper 70s. So it's like boys and girls, you've got to understand that the American people, writ large, regardless of party affiliation want you to protect voter integrity. Now whether Trump has the ability to just like veto things that come across as or refused to sign it, I don't know about the refuse to sign but certainly presidents can veto legislation. So he does have unless there's a super majority, he does have a pretty big tool in his arsenal and if this is the one that he's going to burn the political capital on, I get it.

[Drew]

I was going to go to the Mamdani poll. Like the demographics is destiny thing, this is the narrative that a lot of people are, you know, pushing. Of course when you look at American born New Yorkers, these are the people who they voted for and then we look at foreign born for anybody knocking on the phone.

[Kevin]

Basically Mamdani was far more popular among foreign born New Yorkers. Than he is with people that were born actually in New York. And it's a pretty fascinating breakdown.

[Drew]

Double the sport.

[Kevin]

Remember that the census, it determines seats in Congress and the census counts anybody living in the state. So it doesn't matter whether they're legal or illegal. None of that matters at all. So and you've heard mom Donnie talk multiple times about you can get access to these federal or these state dollars regardless of your immigration status, meaning illegal aliens can get access to these dollars. Now that just doesn't work when you've got economic problems, which we have in spades where you're deficit spending. The deficit spending is the very thing that is making it impossible for working and middle class Americans to get by. And then you look at the fact that illegal alien. Now this is one admittedly I want to fact check this. This is one of those things that feels a little too right. Em. Things that feel right emotionally rarely withstand like a lot of rigor. So I'm gonna give you things that I've seen reported in graphs and just keep in mind that these things can be manipulated or just be outright fabrications. The graph that I was looking at this morning showed that people illegal aliens are per household more likely to be on welfare of all kinds than Americans. And so it goes. Illegals do the most then immigrants, but legal than natural born American citizens. So that like tier tells you everything about the growing animosity that you need to know between people that are actually paying taxes and then people that are not. Now the tax thing gets complicated because in the short term illegal aliens typically are a win because they will end up using somebody else's Social Security number. And so they'll be paying into a system but not taking as much out of the system. But over time that flips and they end up drawing off of the system a lot more than they contribute. So it depends on again this is on the deep dive. You can go check it out. I talk extensively about this stuff but that's where this all goes crazy is that people will point to. Well hold on a second. Like in the. The immigrants are actually good for the tax base. Yes, for like I don't know, two to three years or something like that. And then it flips. Taking a short break. But there's more impact theory after. Stay tuned. Every SIM card has a permanent id. It's called an imsi. Your carrier assigns it once and it never changes. That ID follows you everywhere. Your carrier tracks it. Advertisers track it, bad actors track it. VPNs can't hide it. And encrypted apps can't change it. Cape solves this with identifier rotation. Your SIM ID automatically changes every 24 hours. Same phone number, new identity every single day, making you untraceable. But Cape doesn't stop there. Your phone number itself is protected by a 24 word cryptographic phrase. Your voicemail is encrypted, your payment data is tokenized, and CAPE's enhanced signaling protection blocks suspicious network connections. Before attacks happen, head to Cape Co Impact and use Code impact to get 33% off your first six months with CAPE. That's C A P E co Impact. And be sure to use Code impact to save 33%. Let's talk about one thing your business cannot afford to get wrong. It's not your product. It's not even your marketing. It's not payroll. It's your decisions. Every wrong call starts the same way. Someone did not have the numbers. They looked at incomplete data from different systems and went with their gut. But. And it costs them. NetSuite by Oracle fixes all of this. It's the number one AI Cloud ERP trusted by over 43,000 businesses. It brings your financials, inventory, commerce, HR and CRM all into one source of truth. That connected data makes your AI smarter, so it doesn't guess. It knows if your revenues are at least in the seven figures. Get NetSuite's free business guide demystifying [e-mail] theory. The guide is free to you at netsuite.com theory. Again, that's netsuite.com theory. Let's talk about the retirement mistake even smart people are making. Most people think playing it safe means keeping their money in stable familiar assets. But inflation does not care about your comfort zone. Part of the answer is going to be crypto exposure. But done right. Blocktrust IRA uses Animus AI named Bitcoin magazine's number one crypto technology platform for a human. Volatility is emotional stress. For an AI, it's just an opportunity. Their AI outperformed self managed crypto accounts by over 23% in 2025. Block Trust IRA runs a zero conflict model. They don't make money unless you make money. Your assets are held in regulated insured cold storage. Visit tomcryptoira.com right now and sign up again. That's Tom Crypto ira.com. this is a paid advertisement. Thanks for staying tuned. Now let's get back to it.

[Drew]

So the first thing Straightight ahead. Hormuz, Mr. Economic Lens. Tom Bilyeu himself has said this has been Iran's strategic hold. They've been trying to control this straight because this controls 20% of the oil supply, it goes through it. We have footage of ships being burned. So it's not an open straight that people could just pass by. It's not as open as we thought it was. Give us the breakdown on what's really going on and what's happening behind the strait.

[Kevin]

Yeah, from the beginning, the Strait of Hormuz is the area that everybody needs to pay attention to. And the world's oil supply literally just got choked a little harder as three ships that were attempting to cross the strait got attacked and damaged. This is one of the heaviest days of attacks on shipping since the war in Iran began. And for anybody that's trying to spin it and make it look like this isn't what's going on is trying to delude you. The reality is that Iran, with their much smaller military force, is able to create enough havoc that people are still very hesitant to go through the strait. And the worst hit of the three ships was the Thai flagged bulk carrier. It's operated by Precious Shipping was struck twice by unidentified weapons. They were, they struck above the water line and the strike triggered explosions near the stern. In the engine room, fire broke out. There was like 20 crew members that had to evacuate the craft. A second vessel, the Star Gwen Kenneth, was also struck. They were struck off the coast of Dubai, which is crazy. We haven't been talking about this a lot, but Dubai's reputation is really getting shook by this. You guys can expect oil prices to go up as a result. So the markets are going to be bouncing around a lot. But when you look at direction of travel in terms of how things are headed in the Middle East, Trump has been saying that we're going to get the straight open. He's been blustering a lot about, you know, we're going to slap you, run around. It's going to be the craziest thing they've ever seen, all of that. But the they're still able to get things in the strait that are causing a problem. Insurance carriers don't want to touch this stuff. Trump has promised to escort people, but he's been unable to do that. And now different countries are cutting deals directly with Iran to have their ships left alone. To make things even more fun, by the way, Iran's military has issued a new threat today, warning that it's now given the green light to strike US And Israeli economic targets in the region, including, like, bank branches. So they've urged people to stay a kilometer away from bank branches. And let us not forget that Iran has some seriously talented hackers.

[Drew]

And then I want to daisy chain that with a tweet from Osint Defender, they said. US Intelligence has begun to see indications Iran is step is taking steps to deploy some of its 2,000 to 6,000 naval mines of Iranian, Chinese and Russian origin into shipping lanes across, across the strait. So this seems like this is Iran's choke point and they're going to take it. This is a strategic move. This is a smart thing to do if you're Iran and you want to defeat your enemy.

[Kevin]

And they're doing well by the way. So it doesn't take a lot of fear to get a huge response. This is asymmetric warfare in a nutshell. You inflict terror on people, or in this case inflict terror on the people that own the ships, on the insurance companies who are like, yeah, like that's just bad for business. Insurance companies operate typically on razor thin margins. And so when you've got risk that's going up disproportionate to the gain that you're going to get, you just say, yeah, we're not going to insure it. So that is going to continue until the US can prove that people are going to be able to get through the strait safely. And given three ships that were hit today, that message is, as of right now, today, the US despite their gigantic overwhelming naval power, is just not able to get people through the strait safely. If the US really does have an answer to the problem and they can find a way to stop these ships before they're able to attack, if they can, other ways that the US can detect what's going on from air based radar and things like that. They're also moving some into the region from other places. So it's like, just like the Iranians are going to have a very clever response. And you should assume that Iranians have brilliant people making their decisions. So does the US So this is going to be this tit for tat thing that goes back and forth for a while. What you're actually watching is two hyper intelligent groups of people with extremely deadly weapons who understand each other's capabilities very well. You've got the Chinese feeding the Iranians like second by second information on the movements of our military equipment. And so it's going to come down to who gets the upper hand first by destroying the visibility. That's going to be a huge one. And then ultimately demoralizing them.

[Drew]

I want to Dive back into the decentralized military aspect of this, because I think everybody to wants watches. Saving Private Ryan. We all play Call of Duty in Fortnite. We're like, just go in there and shoot that guy you killed. The leaders bomb the White House, we're done, we can wrap it up. But I think this was a good point you built up that their military is decentralized. So there's not a core hub, there's not a part, there's not a Pentagon that we can kind of come all the command comes out of. They also announced that they will start targeting American institutions in the region. So you have Iran is publishing a hit list naming Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, IBM, Oracle, Planet Palantir, which all has offices in the Middle East, East, Israel, Dubai and Abu Dhabi. So now you have a decentralized military who has listed a bunch of targets. And because you just chopped off the head, you don't know who's leading what, who's popping up and who's taking that control breakdown kind of decentralized military side and how this makes the war even more complicated for us.

[Kevin]

Yeah, this is one of the things that people that are trying to map out what's going to happen have got to take into consideration. The decentralized military that Iran is running is so decentralized that it runs the risk of becoming essentially a well armed headless chicken that can't be stopped. Stopped from running around and spraying blood on everything. And that idea that it can't be stopped is what people have to think about. So if Trump is going to have an exit from this war, there has to be somebody that you can talk to. Because if you stop and they don't, then you've gotten nowhere. If we say, okay, cool, ceasefire, but then they keep bombing the Strait of Hormuz, you've gained nothing. Only the Supreme Leader can turn off the war machine. And the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khomeini. This is Khomeini's son, is reportedly in critical condition and on a ventilator somewhere in an ice ICU under heavy protection. Now, I want to be very clear, these reports are unverified, but they've been swirling for a while now. And every day that passes where we don't see or hear from him, the rumors obviously gain a little bit more credibility because nothing would bolster the Iranian regime supporting people more than him making a message, even if it's from an underground bunker somewhere, to make a message telling the people, you know, that they're going to do this, that or the

[Drew]

other with the decentralized military. Is this a unique problem that you think America has to deal with, or do you think this is something that we knew it was coming, we just didn't think it was going to take this long. Like, what do you think the pushback was when they discovered how complex the military, the war actually is?

[Kevin]

Well, if we find out that they did not anticipate decentralized command a, that would be shocking. I refuse to believe that's true. This is exactly what we saw in Iraq. It was completely decentralized. This is what you see in Afghanistan. This is how Afghanistan has been able to quote, unquote, bankrupt empires time after time is it's a bunch of guys armed in caves. And so you try to go deal with that, and each one just does their own thing. The US has spent the last 20 years dealing with this exact problem. So there's no way that they didn't consider it. What will be interesting to watch play out is whether Trump had any sense of what does this look like? As we try to exit. He mapped out what would happen in Venezuela. So, well, there's no way he didn't come out of that a little bit cocky. And so my concern isn't that he didn't see these things coming as possibilities, meaning somebody didn't put a brief on his desk that said, listen, this guy has broken the IRGC up into 31 provinces. So it's not that it's a surprise. It's just as you build a mental map of what you're coming into. To be a person like Donald Trump, you have to believe in yourself well past the realm of reason. And so this is how these guys always end up getting tripped up. Now, I don't know that Trump is tripped up, but my mental map of Trump goes something like this. He cannot see past negotiations, So I think he's trying to hurt them to the point that they'll come to the negotiating table. Table. I'm just not sure who he thinks is going to come to the negotiating table.

[Drew]

Reports now are coming out that Iran is actually up. There was a British journalist that gave satellite images before and after certain military facilities in the region. And we did take some losses. We took a couple meaningful hits. We have a couple meaningful radar systems that are out. We're relocating a radar system from South Korea into the region because we're down some. So clearly the US Is definitely reloading its guns. Do you think we get to the

[Kevin]

very nice way of saying it?

[Drew]

I was trying to you know, bolster us up. I'm still Team America as much as I talk junk. Like, I do want us to thrive, but it's one of those things. Do you think that we'll be able to overcome this setback and figure out a way out of this, or do you think at this point now it's just a way for Trump to save face and kind of say, okay, we tried our best, let's just get out here and minimize.

[Kevin]

I think we're still in the early weeks of this war, so I wouldn't get too hysterical yet. If we start getting into week five and six and we are seeing gas prices just climbing, climbing, climbing. And the problem not, you know, we've dropped it down, whatever, 92%, let's say, in terms of their ability to launch ballistic missiles and drones. But. But if it stays there, and then those drones and rockets are getting through so that the damage being done, even though it's a much lower rate of fire, if the damage being done is on par with what was happening before, then I don't think people are going to be satisfied with that. I think we will have a problem and that's when people will be able to bang that drum and say, okay, something really bad is happening here. In terms of the no radar thing, social media is full of claims that rockets are now raining down on Israel with zero warning because US And Israeli radar system systems have been totally wiped out. But the question is, is it actually true? Now, I'm guessing you guys spend as much time on X as I do, and you will, I think, agree that right now the level of bull and fakery is insane. It is off the charts now as you get into the fact checks on the radar. Unfortunately, some of the idea that the US And Israeli radar capabilities have been degraded, it's actually true. Now, it's largely exaggerated, so you have to be careful. In terms of. Of it isn't the hysterical, you know, everything is just getting through and everybody's blind. It isn't that. And then I will also remind you, whatever damage they're doing to the US bases, to our allies in the region, to Israel, is going to be less than we're doing to them. So both sides are being degraded. Iran has managed to hit some of the US Radar infrastructure across the region. Satellite imagery confirmed that Thaad radar that was set up has been destroyed at our air base in Jordan. Another was hit near Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. RAD facilities were also struck in Qatar and two more locations in the United Arab Emirates. The James Martin center for Non Proliferation Studies confirmed the Qatar damage by looking at satellite analysis. So we're pretty convinced that that is real. Now CNN calculated the replacement cost for one destroyed Thaad radar system alone would be just under half a billion dollars. So these hits ain't coming cheap, man. The most significant protective failure that I could actually verify happened on March 9th. This was the IDF itself confirming that two Hezbollah missiles hit central Israel. The IDF has called the strikes an isolated failure. That seems pretty unlikely to me. If by isolated you mean that the radar that had been taken out now can be exploited over and over and over, yes, it's isolated to the radar that has been damaged. I think over time it'll become clear exactly how isolated that is. Though I expect more to be able to make their way through. An honest assessment is going to sound something like Iran has targeted radar infrastructure first and that's going to be the first thing that they take out. So there are things that are getting through, but it's not as big of a deal as they would have you believe in terms of you don't have a never ending barrage of things landing. So obviously we're going to be staying tuned, watching to see exactly what happens. How much of the radar infrastructure not only has already been destroyed, but how much more are they going to be able to hit? Because you can believe that of course they're going to be doing everything they can to hit more and more radar.

[Drew]

Decentralized military. We talked about this Trader Hormuz. I'm just stacking all these things above this war that unlike Venezuela, unlike the potential Cuba mission that's on its way after this. It's not wild, it's not a snatch and grab as we thought it was. And it seems like this is going to take a little bit longer than a couple of days, a couple of months.

[Kevin]

This is one of those things. Drew, I think about this a lot. He campaigns on, no new wars. And then Iran twice Venezuela threats to

[Drew]

Mexico promises Cuba now operations in Mexico, operations in Ecuador.

[Kevin]

Ecuador, I forgot. If he pulls it off and Venezuela becomes a good partner and we do a little ding against China and the Venezuelan people are like oh my God, like economic boom. We love this. It's like a return to the pre. Basically socialization of Venezuela. If Cuba becomes a actual thriving economy again, again going back pre revolution, if we're able to stabilize what's going on in Iran and get rid of that as a terror threat around the world, like all of the GCC countries want Iran to be stable and if the people that are on the side of good in that country, if they rise up and take over, whether they end up being like officially pro America or they're just like trying to create a thriving situation that is not terror based and they completely defund Hamas and Hezbollah, if all of that happens on Trump's watch, it would be historic. Now that we're in it, though, admittedly it makes me deeply uncomfortable because everything is so destabilized and when you're in this destabilized, it could just break bad so fast. We're in it. Let's hope that we come out the other side in a position that's not only good for the US but good for all of these individual countries. And if that ends up happening, it would be ridiculously historic work. But what a gamble. Let's talk about a pattern that is guaranteed to be killing your progress. You know what you need to do? You need consistent nutrition. We all do. You need vitamins, probiotics, greens. We all know that we should be doing more of it. When your morning gets chaotic, you skip it. When you travel, you skip it. When your routine breaks, everything tends to break and that inconsistency compounds against you every single day. AG1 is designed to solve the execution problem. Problem 1 Scoop 8 ounces of water and you're done. You're getting 75 plus ingredients, vitamins and minerals, pre and probiotics, nutrient dense superfoods. Everything that used to require six, seven different supplements and perfect planning now happens in one drink that takes about 30 seconds to make. Right now, AG1 is giving you $87 worth of free gifts with your first subscription. You get a welcome kit, travel packs, vitamin D3 plus K2 and flavor samples. Click the link in the show notes or visit drinkag1.comimpact to claim this offer. This podcast is brought to you by Carvana. Car shopping shouldn't feel like preparing for a marathon of paperwork. That's why Carvana makes buying and financing your car easy. From start to finish. Search thousands of vehicles with great prices, all online, all on your time. And when you're ready, your new car shows up right at your door. It doesn't get better than that. Buy your car the easy way on. Delivery fees may apply.