← Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
The Rich Are Quiet Quitting America and the Collapse Has Already Started | The Tom Bilyeu Show
01:45:17
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- [00:00]
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- [01:00]
Tom Bilyeu
Welcome everybody. It is a wonderful Wednesday and I'm excited to have you all here. Drew and I are ready to go. We are locked and loaded and the
- [01:09]
Drew
big beautiful bill narrowly passed. It was a midnight vote of Rama 27 hours.
- [01:14]
Tom Bilyeu
Let's go.
- [01:15]
Drew
You're a hard worker. Have you voted like have you ever worked like a 12, 14, 16 hour day, like all day in the warehouse?
- [01:22]
Tom Bilyeu
I can't tell if you're kidding, Drew. My average day is so if I sleep for six hours that means my average day is 18 hours. I work 18 hours all the time. Whether factory, no factory, doesn't matter.
- [01:34]
Drew
Quest, no quest now last week, two years ago literally.
- [01:37]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, yeah. I think if you want to get things done in life, one of the secret unlocks is to just spend a lot of time on it. So not a lot of sympathy for, for the politicians who have a nice comfy existence.
- [01:53]
Drew
Well, J.D. vance had to do the tie breaking vote and it is official. The big beautiful bill has got through Senate now still has one more hurdle to go in the House. But this is the bill. There's some a lot of speculation about what's actually in it, what's actually not. There's been kind of this assembly line effect. So in the House that's when they had the AI regulations, that's when they had the no Medicaid for illegals. That's when they had a lot of things that Trump campaigned on. By the time it got to a Senate a lot of those things got stripped out. As Senate does they will and deal just so they could get the votes. So this is what we know is officially in this version of the bill. Again, the House has one more chance to update it. So this might not even be the final version of it. But one thing's for certain, it adds 5 trillion to the debt limit. The debt ceiling. The state and local tax deduction has been increased to 40,000 for five years, then drops down to 10,000. No tax on tips. That's something that Trump campaigned on. No tax on overtime and no tax on car loan interest through tips.
- [02:49]
Tom Bilyeu
Can we pause for a second? No tax on tips and especially no tax on overtime is dope. That's dope.
- [02:56]
Drew
Yes, I would have liked it if it didn't cut Medicaid and SNAP to pay for it. But yes, it is dope. I think that this is my.
- [03:03]
Tom Bilyeu
Now when you say that it cut SNAP and Medicaid, doesn't it just put requirements like you have to work 80 hours a month or something like that to. Why don't you like that?
- [03:16]
Drew
This is, this is the, this is my rub. Right. If we were looking at this bill, kind of like who earned that.
- [03:26]
Tom Bilyeu
I feel judged right now, Drew. I'm not sure what to do with that.
- [03:29]
Drew
I think that like the amount that we had to cut in quote unquote entitlements and the re there was also like they reconfigured the Social Security payments. So people are going to be seeing a lower percent of Social Security payments and things like that in order to offset the increase increase prices. However, when we turn over to like the new spending, a lot of it is happening in the defense sector. We had it 150 billion in new.
- [03:54]
Tom Bilyeu
Why do you mind people having to work to qualify for benefits?
- [03:58]
Drew
I don't mind that people have to work to qualify for benefits. They increase the amount. So people already have to work to qualify for benefits. They just increase the amount of hours
- [04:05]
Tom Bilyeu
to 80 to 80. I do 80 by Thursday.
- [04:10]
Drew
Yeah, Tom, but you're also not 65 and on your 30th decade of working in on disability,
- [04:20]
Tom Bilyeu
you're picking like a really fringe person. If you've got disability, it's a different story. But I'm saying and I think they even have called out if you are able bodied then fill in blank.
- [04:32]
Drew
Yeah, able bodied people. Like if you're a 30. A 30 year old who is.
- [04:36]
Tom Bilyeu
You're 65.
- [04:37]
Drew
If. Yeah, if you're. I want to protect the 65 year olds. My mom is 66, my dad's 80. Something like there's a lot of like I am super sensitive to the older generation. Even Though they screwed us with a bunch of other things. Forget the boomers. But still, like, that isn't fair for them to then have to have to work more.
- [04:55]
Tom Bilyeu
Also when you say it's not fair for them, what do you mean that
- [04:59]
Drew
their fundamental requirement that they agreed to before, like, it's almost like you're entering into a contract and then that contract is now changing.
- [05:07]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah. I mean, listen, be careful what you vote for. If you vote for something that you know will bankrupt the country and there is no way to continue to pay for that, you are in a weakened position. I will just tell everybody right now, guess what you're voting for. You are voting for having the rug pulled out from under you when you get older. If you don't die violently like that. That's what you're voting for. Raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion is saying, I don't care that, that we are going to bankrupt this country, which will be violent, which I think people lose sight of at some point. It's a beautiful deleveraging. And a beautiful deleveraging is a really. It's super spinny because it's bad. It's. You're taking some of the things that I rail against all the time and you're saying, yeah, some of the wealth has to be redistributed. I got it. You're going to have to print some money. Yep, I understand. But you also have to do some austerity measures. And so there is just a hard reality to be faced about where we are at as a country. Money has physics. And while I get it, I don't love it either. And look, my mom, for reasons that I'm not even entirely, I have a guess, I think it was having to do with meaning and purpose. But my mom, because of me, who clearly did not need to work, kept working well into her 70s. So it's like to some extent, work ethic is just a thing. Finding meaning, purpose in your job and culturally not convincing everybody that work is for suckers. We just, we got to get people back on track. From a cultural perspective about hard work is amazing. And finding something that you can do well into your 70s to continue to contribute to society is going to become critically important. And so from where I'm sitting, just looking at the math that you expecting people to be able to retire in their 60s just isn't going to keep being a thing. It's just not. And so at some point you've got to. I don't want to bamboozle somebody. So if they thought they were going to be able to retire at 65. Like, okay, let's try to figure out a way where we're pushing it back for people that aren't, like, right at the finish line. But even if we got to push it for people right at the finish line, we got to do what we got to do. This is a math equation.
- [07:19]
Drew
Yeah. And they're already doing that. For example, like, Social Security is a sliding scale. So my mom, specifically, I know if she would have retired at 65, she would have got, like, a thousand dollars a month. If you require a 67, it goes up to, like, 1700amonth. And then if you retire at 70, it goes up to, like- 2300amonth. So they're already incentivizing you to stay in the workforce longer. But that's the thing. I'm not. Whether it comes down to Social Security, I already know that it's a scam, and it's not available for my generation, so I'm not. That's not my hill to die on. But it's one of those things that we didn't necessarily. Like, there's two ways to make money, right? To pay for things. You can cut stuff or you can increase spending. Those are the. Those are the two ways to, like, make something happen. And I think in this specific bill, yes, no tax on overtime is dope, and yes, no tax on tips is dope, comma. However, in order to pay for that, instead of saying, we're going to cut the bloated place that fails an audit for 10 years, that has it once the Pentagon has never came out and said, my bad, guys, this is where all the money goes. We're going to give them more money in this place over here where people are actually getting benefits again, the old, the sick, the disabled, we're going to make it a little bit harder for you to get especially.
- [08:21]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, okay, let me make a pitch. I don't know this is why Trump is doing this, but certainly you could map his behaviors to this and it would make complete sense. Trump is looking at the future, and he realizes we are going. The likelihood that we end up in a kinetic war with China is way too high. And if you're not prepared for a kinetic war with China, you dramatically increase the likelihood that it happens. So us building something like an Iron Dome becomes increasingly important as more and more countries have the ability to launch things at you from distance. We're going to need EMP technology to make sure that drone swarms can't come over here and Decimate things like this is just. You need to be able to protect yourself. Now, if this kind of spending were going on when we were still mired in Iraq or in Afghanistan, then I would have a much bigger beef with it. But while I definitely am nearly violently opposed to anything that increases the budget spending on the military at this exact moment. Yeah, I get that now, being able to pass an audit, that seems critically important to me. But America has already said we want no accountability. We are opposed, literally, violently opposed. We will burn things to the ground if you try to hold government responsible, which is insane. And everyone who has that vibe should be quite literally ashamed of themselves. That's so crazy. That's so crazy. I cannot believe that people create a mental model that allows them to justify, not like they want an aggressive irs, like all up in everybody's business, and they don't want a similar function for the U.S. government.
- [10:11]
Guest Expert on AI and Robotics
That's.
- [10:13]
Tom Bilyeu
That's crazy. Yeah.
- [10:15]
Drew
And then next beef, maybe you can help me rationalize this. We're roughly adding 99, 95 billion dollars to support border enforcement. That's in new ICE agents. That's the complete. The border wall. And that's a hire new actual, like agents. He has reduced border crossings from, let's call it open to 99% closed. Right. Why do we need $100 billion if we already have it? 0%.
- [10:42]
Tom Bilyeu
I'm guessing this is for him to go out and get the people that are already here and get them out. That's my assumption. Now, if there's been talk, I just, I've literally heard nothing about what they plan to do with the money that they're increasing for border security. The next 10 years of America's life is going to be defined by two things, debt and values. You, you are going to be in a war for a, a cultural war. That is the right language over what does it mean to be an American. What are the values that we're going to say we don't tolerate here? What are going to be the things that we allow? And so step number one is you, you've got to block off that, and then you've got to figure out what you're going to do with the people that are here, especially given the economic crisis that we're in. If you have people that are in the country illegally and they are drawing off of your services, which they are, then you've got to, You've. You've got to have a plan for that. And so just like if you were running a household and you were having a hard time putting your kids through school and making ends meet. And every now and then you were asking your kids to skip a meal. And then in the basement, you realize that you've got six neighbor kids. some point you got to be like, what are we doing here? So neighbor kids need to be taken care by their parents, and that's not America. Many Americans are going to have a stroke over that kind of thinking. That is where we are. We are not able to feed our kids at every meal. And so at some point you do go, the family is the right unit of analysis. And in this analogy, the country is the family. And you got to be like, hey, I hope all these people do well, but we just can't take care of everybody. We're hitting pause for a moment. There's plenty more ahead, so don't go anywhere.
- [12:32]
Commercial Narrator
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- [12:38]
Drew
We've planned for the plot twists, so support is always available because a great trip starts with peace of mind.
- [12:50]
Tom Bilyeu
Thanks for staying tuned. Now let's get back to it.
- [12:52]
Drew
Marisha Dart just gave us the super chat. Sorry, Mason. No, I'm stepping on you, but it's relevant to the conversation.
- [12:58]
Tom Bilyeu
Super chat.
- [12:59]
Drew
He said laws and laws on rape and murder are handled at the state level. Most things are less important than that. That's an interesting way to start. Welfare is two thirds of the entire federal budget, more than even defense. We need a four year plan to help hand welfare back to the states. The reason I wanted to bring this up right now, in this moment is because I think that that's the narrative that Trump has done. Trump and the Republicans have done a great job of pushing is that we can't balance his budget because of welfare. And it's y' all that are taxing the system. It's not us. If we didn't have any Social Security, the budget will be flat. And to me, that's wrong. And I think that that's misleading.
- [13:31]
Tom Bilyeu
It's wrong logistically or it's wrong morally.
- [13:35]
Drew
Logistically.
- [13:36]
Tom Bilyeu
Okay, so you're saying this needs to be handled at the state level. It should be handled at the state level. And the federal government needs to stop taking credit for that.
- [13:45]
Drew
Federal.
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Tom Bilyeu
Stop crying hardship because of that. Yes, but the federal budget is going
- [13:51]
Drew
towards entitlements when we actually go through the budget itself. Right. So, yes, we see. I have it pulled up here on Gemini. So 22% goes to Social Security. You got me on that. Social Security, direct payments. There's no beef. The Social Security, bureaucracy, maybe, but that's it. But when we start to dive into like Medicare, Medicaid, chip, we aren't paying individuals directly, we're paying institutions. There's subsidies, there's. These are going to hospitals. So to say that these are welfare payments, it's disingenuous because it's not going to a senior who gets $1,000 a month to then pay for their health insurance. It goes to the hospital. And when the hospital realize that the federal government is paying for something, it gives them, it empowers them to charge 2x3. Agreed. And things like that.
- [14:29]
Tom Bilyeu
So why do you say it's disingenuous? So this is a problem. You have a nation of morbidly obese people that are weighing on the system, regardless of the fact that we further exacerbate it by sending it to effectively a business. And the business goes, oh, word, like you're paying for this and you'll bail it out, you'll print more money. I know that this money is always coming, no problem. You still have to pull those funds. Yeah, eventually.
- [14:56]
Drew
But that's one of the. I think that this is an incentive problem, not a welfare problem. So instead of.
- [15:01]
Tom Bilyeu
Okay, so welfare is a trigger for you in a way that I don't have a map for.
- [15:07]
Drew
Welfare is not a trigger for me. I don't have any reliance on welfare. I never go to my family.
- [15:11]
Tom Bilyeu
So here's here what I was saying. No, no, here's what I'm saying is there's a distinction you're trying to make by calling it welfare that I don't understand.
- [15:22]
Drew
Yeah, because a lot of times they think when we have the government budget is $4 trillion, right. Two trillion is going to welfare payments. So when, when we have that, like that language, a lot of times people think it's the same as Social Security because Social Security is direct checks to people. Right. Where Medicaid, CHIP and Medicare are not direct payments to people. And that's the thing I'm trying to.
- [15:44]
Tom Bilyeu
Okay, but why does that matter? There's a reason that matters to you.
- [15:46]
Drew
Because I think just like we're right now negotiating with pharmaceutical companies that they have to charge us the lowest rate that they charge the other countries. We can have those same conversations with the institutions, with the hospitals, with the pharmaceutical, with the medical suppliers. So that way we can now lower our Medicaid, Medicare and CHIP percentage of the budget that we actually spend.
- [16:04]
Tom Bilyeu
Okay, I love all of that, but I'm still trying to get to what your real beef is. So you're saying, hey, stop calling it welfare because you're tricking the voters. And now they're not pressuring you, everybody, to do the real thing you need to do, which is negotiate better.
- [16:19]
Drew
Yes. Which is the government should be negotiating better. Yes.
- [16:22]
Tom Bilyeu
Okay. Interesting. Yep. That all makes sense to me. I still don't have a beef with calling it welfare, because what I. What I want people to hold in their mind is we're giving away a ton of free stuff. We have created a culture where people come with their handout. We have created a culture that is totally blind to the reality of how tax dollars are generated. And because people are totally blind to how tax dollars are generated and they feel entitled that the government should be giving them money for everything, you get fiscal problems that will make their lives worse in ways that they can't. They literally can't imagine because they think that America couldn't go broke. Not only can America go broke, as of right now, it is a mathematical certainty that America will go broke. And I'm talking, like, in the next five to 10 years. So, again, this. This is mathematical certainty. And I'm often reminded of Peter Attia, who stops being oncologist, starts working in actuarial science, running the math. He looks as. This is probably like back in 2006, and he looks at what's happening in the subprime mortgage space, and he was like, oh, all these banks are going to go out of business. And the guy that he works for is like, what do you mean? And he was like, it is a mathematical certainty. Whatever. More than a year in advance. There is no way for them to avoid becoming insolvent. They're going out of business. And so what I'm saying is, hey, that same thing has already happened. The patient has been shot. It is bleeding out. If you don't stop the bleeding, the patient dies. Not maybe it dies. And so now we're just watching the blood leak out. And so the way that the government will respond to this is entirely knowable. Entirely knowable. And that way is that they will print money, and they will print money, and that will devalue the dollar. It will further inequality. And the inequality, ironically, becomes the only thing people pay attention to. And then they start actually shooting people across the aisle from them. Just as a reminder, we're already doing that. And it is. It is so predictable. So at some point, to stop that from happening, you have to stop spending the money. It's not the only thing. Ray Dalio. Beautiful. Deleveraging. It's the Only way, it's all for leverage. You have to pull all four levers, but one of them is austerity. And you cannot keep spending that money. So it doesn't matter, like, who we're worried are going to get hurt. I can't remember the first time that this occurred to me, but it was years ago when I was like, oh, our problem is, as Americans, the culture has become. No one can be left behind. Some people have to get left behind. Until you're willing to let some people get left behind, what you're saying is everyone will get left behind just a couple years later. And it feels gross even to say that out loud. It's the math.
- [19:19]
Drew
In your opinion, what do you think is the austerity that America needs right now is if there was a first cut or a first pass that you think we should start with, do you agree with kind of Trump's direction that he's trying to do with the, with the big beautiful bill? Like, do you think we're going in that?
- [19:39]
Tom Bilyeu
Like, I'd have to really get into the details of the big beautiful bill. So I will just say at a philosophical level, yeah, you have to look at where you spend the most money, and where you spend the most money are entitlements, interest, military. If you're not talking about those three things, you're just not talking about anything real. And so this was people's beef with Doge from the jump was like, bro, you're in discretionary spending. Discretionary spending is like 22% of the budget. It's not going to get you there. So, yeah, you are roughly $2 trillion in deficit spending every year over the next five years. Because you're not. If you do this instantly, you will break the economy. So even though this is what has to be done, even I the sort of lunatic about like, ah, we've got to stop spending money. You can't do it immediately, but let's say over the next five years, you have to get to a balanced budget, period, end of story. And so you can build something that says, we're going to do it all in growth. And Lord knows I hope that is true. But you have to have milestones along the way where you say, okay, I'm. I am not going to assume I suddenly get exponential growth. So assuming a linear map, where do I need to be in six months? If I'm not there, I need to start cutting. Okay, so we made, ah, we didn't hit our goals. We missed by 22%. Great, you gotta cut 22% of where you thought you would be in that six month period. Okay, so we make a minor reduction somewhere and you just keep cutting until whatever the reality is, five years from now you've gotten to that point and some of this is gonna have to be. You're gonna have to start forgiving some debt again. You want to do it slowly and these are things that I hate. So you hear me rail against this kind of thing. And I'm saying you still have to do some of it. So you're going to have to do some wealth redistribution. You are going to have to do some debt forgiveness, you are going to have to do some austerity and you're going to have to do money printing. You have to pull all four levers. Those are the only four levers that exist. You have to pull all of them. Everyone is going to hurt somebody. I'm going to get hurt by one of the levers. Everybody that can hear my voice is going to get hurt by one or multiple of the levers. It is what it is. But we have to have our eye on the prize. And our eye on the prize is homes must be affordable because it's the only way for the average person to avoid inflation. And then we have to get out from under the debt. You, you can't have. And biology, if you're not following biology, you've got to start following biology. Debt forgiveness. Lol. T Crew, we got to talk about why. I think that's lol. And he's right that when we talk about the debt, all we ever talk about is government debt. But there's way more than government debt. There's individual debt, there's corporate debt, and you put it all together and it's like $175 trillion. Uh, so this is a major problem. History is very clear on what has to be done. History is very clear on what happens if you don't do it. And right now, the political realities, as evidenced by Trump's own tweet to all of my fiscal conservatives out there who want to spend less money, I'm one of you. But the reality is, remember, all caps. We must get reelected. Don't go too crazy. All caps. That is so honest. Like, he really cannot help himself.
- [22:52]
Drew
He just says the thing, the quiet part out loud.
- [22:55]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, it's. I'm fascinated.
- [22:57]
Drew
Is it the tweet he's referring to for all cost cutting Republicans, of which I am one? Remember, you still have to get reelected. Don't go too crazy. We'll make it up. All 10 times with growth more than ever before.
- [23:08]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, I was wrong about don't go too crazy in all caps. That was how my brain remembered it. But yeah. So I hope we make it up with growth, but the reality is that you got to prove that before you can just keep spending, spending, spending. So Argentina is actually doing a reasonably good job at this. Now, I want to be very clear. It's. He's a controversial figure even in his own country. I think he has 45% approval rating. So more people disapprove than approve. But he's got numbers going in the right direction. But he is. He's a mixed bag.
- [23:41]
Drew
Yeah, absolutely.
- [23:42]
Chat Participant / Viewer
So a few people aren't liking your take on leaving some people behind. People who aren't what Aren't liking your take on leaving some people behind.
- [23:49]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah.
- [23:50]
Chat Participant / Viewer
And so just a couple things to respond to. A healthy and functioning government doesn't leave people behind. That's the sort of point of a bullshit.
- [23:58]
Tom Bilyeu
The fuck. This is how we've ended up here. Jesus Christ.
- [24:03]
Chat Participant / Viewer
And then the second one is this tough love. Generalizing isn't going. Is going to do harm. And mostly kids and old people are going to suffer. It's sad. So I'm curious.
- [24:13]
Tom Bilyeu
Hold on, hold on, hold on. Guys. I love you and I'm so grateful for you being here. I am well aware that this is the joy of building a community is the back and forth. But I'm begging you, if you have a hot take, will you please put what your plan is? Don't just say what you don't want. What are you suggesting we do? If you think that I get some glee out of leaving people behind, I do not. But there is math, there is physics to money. People act like economies don't have physics and that you can just do whatever you want. And because it works for as extended of a period of time as it does, people forget you are robbing your children. And I have to say, it is weird to me that the guy with no kids seems way more concerned about the future than a lot of people with kids. And so I don't know how people are mentally mapping this. You go broke. When you go broke, people kill each other. And so if you've got pushback on that statement, I'm here for it. Uh, but unfortunately, I would rather leave some percentage of people behind with nothing but devastation in my heart. That sucks. Than everybody go off a fiscal cliff. So there's something where people seem to just close their mind to the fact that you do go off a cliff. I Don't understand. I'm not sure how you're mapping things.
- [25:32]
Drew
I blame George Bush, no Child Left behind. And people take that literally.
- [25:39]
Tom Bilyeu
Adventures. I don't know if you're talking about me. I literally just said the exact opposite or if that's a reference to somebody else in the chat. But you blame George Bush for what reason?
- [25:48]
Drew
He passed no Child Left behind when you're no longer allowed to fail students.
- [25:52]
Tom Bilyeu
That's so crazy.
- [25:53]
Drew
And then stat mentality kind of has now like matriculated to the rest of the government. Like if you get an F, you shouldn't go to the next grade, you should stay in that grade.
- [26:01]
Tom Bilyeu
Correct?
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Drew
Yeah, but as a society, then how do we deal with that? Because this is my beef. Right. A lot of people are coming at it from this. I've been working all my life. My first job was 13. Every time I've worked, I got a paycheck. Every time I look at that paycheck, I get Medicaid cuts and Social Security cuts. And I haven't been that sick or that old yet. And then now I have this president as cutting those things. By the time we get to my generation, it's, it's, it's not even assumed. It's kind of a rolling joke that like by the time my Generation gets to 60, we're not going to be able to like have Social Security.
- [26:37]
Tom Bilyeu
And now I would like them to finish that thought out. Why is that true? And the answer is very simple. The government spends too much money. Then the next question becomes what is the government spending too much money on? We just covered that. They are spending too much money on entitlements, interest payments.
- [26:54]
Drew
And how are they spending the money? Too much of the money that. Of the money I'm putting in. So they're not using the funds that I'm giving them.
- [26:59]
Tom Bilyeu
Correctly. Because you're in a moment where people are voting emotionally. Nobody cares about what the knock on effects are in the future. They just know. Hold on a second. I can see that people are spending money like crazy. Given that you're spending money like crazy, you've got to give me some of that money. And so it becomes instead of going, I'm going to fight for conservatism and say I don't want to have, I don't want to be deficit spending, meaning
- [27:28]
Drew
budget conservatism, not like you're fighting for Republican values.
- [27:30]
Tom Bilyeu
Correct?
- [27:31]
Drew
Correct.
- [27:32]
Tom Bilyeu
Cares about that.
- [27:32]
Drew
No, but yes.
- [27:33]
Tom Bilyeu
I'm glad that you're clarifying. For sure, for sure, for sure. I could not care about that. Team sports is the danger. We live in a moment where everybody wants to be on a team. That. That is the mistake. But you need to be fiscally conservative, because if you don't, you drag the whole country down. If you can map out the cause and effect and you can show me exactly what the off ramp is. So Trump is saying the off ramp is growth. Okay, yes, that's part of it. It's just that doesn't. That isn't how things normally play out. There's a very noble loop that has been mapped. Ray Dalio has written literally three books about the subject. And the loop just repeats and repeats and repeats. And the reason it repeats is because inequality widens as debt increases and money printing takes place for reasons I've explained a thousand times and happy to explain again if needed. When the inequality increases, people click over into emotional reasoning. And once they're an emotional reasoning, they look at money being spent like crazy and they say, okay, I can be the chump who says, no, no, don't give me or my constituents any money because we want to be fiscally responsible. And nobody ever does that. Because if everyone else is taking money, the only thing that makes sense is for you to fight for your piece of the pie. And that is why this always spirals out of control. Because nobody wants to be the that when everybody else is grabbing, the money goes, no, no, no, I'm going to be the one person who's responsible because it won't matter now. And so the only thing that you can do is as money is being stolen from everybody in the form of inflation, you then have to jump into the fray and say, give me some of it, because at least then I get some of the money back that was stolen from me. Quick break. But don't go anywhere. There's more to come after this short break from our sponsors.
- [29:27]
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- [30:01]
Tom Bilyeu
Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action.
- [30:03]
Drew
Elon agrees with you. He thinks that this insane spending bill passed the America Party will need to be formed the next day. Our country needs an Alternative to the Democratic, Democrat, Republican unit party. So that way people actually have a voice. I know we said the off ramp is growth, but I am excited and I talked to my socialist friends because this is a good.
- [30:23]
Tom Bilyeu
For the record, what I said was Trump is at least offering you what he sees as the off ramp. He is over indexing on growth. Growth will be one of the things you, you must do all four levers.
- [30:34]
Drew
Yeah.
- [30:35]
Tom Bilyeu
Period. End of story.
- [30:37]
Drew
There is a sect of America that thinks a new political party would, quote, unquote, solve this problem because people will actually have a voice, things like that. I remember you were kind of on the fence about new political parties.
- [30:47]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah. I need to research this. So I have an intuition. My intuition is often wrong, so I have no idea if I'm looking at this right. But a third party strikes me just like when people say, hey, Momdani is going to get elected in New York because Cuomo won't be able to sit this one out. Eric Adams, Cuomo will cancel each other out, and mom Johnny will win without getting a majority. And so I'm just like, oh, God, that feels like the exact same thing that's going to play out in terms of having a third party. Also, one of my closest friends, I love this person so much. She grew up in Belgium and she's like, we have like seven political parties. Nothing gets done. My country is a total mess. And so that just plays on my head in a loop. That man. Is it possible that two parties, as much as I hate it, is actually a better system because it forces them to win over more people? And a one party system is trash. Two party system is bad, but certainly infinitely less bad than one party. But do things get better as you increase the number of parties? I only have an intuition. I've not studied this, but my intuition is that two parties is probably the right answer. And that three parties forces you into coalitions. And so now you get these uneasy alliances. Think Trump and Elon, where it's like, yeah, you get together for a minute, but then you still secretly hate each other under ground. And so it falls apart very fast. And so you got elected, but then you're tearing each other apart once you're in power. It just. There's something about that that strikes me again at. At merely an intuitive level. And I'm not a person who trusts my intuitions, but at an intuitive level that there's going to be a problem if this seems like the right place to put my energy. I'll do research right now. It doesn't and so I'm not spending a ton of time on it.
- [32:41]
Drew
But yeah, I'm with you. I don't want it to become. We have five, Jim.
- [32:46]
Tom Bilyeu
We haven't talked about Candace Owens yet. No, it's coming. It's hilarious.
- [32:50]
Drew
I get to your point. We don't want to have five political parties and you only have to win 15 of the vote now and that's how you kind of get passed. But I do think that we're just in this balance counterbalance gridlock and I do think we need new fresh ideas. Because even if you look at Republicans,
- [33:07]
Tom Bilyeu
why do you think gridlock is our problem? That doesn't like when that statement skims across the surface of my map of what's going on right now to the point where I'm like, I don't even disagree with it. It just doesn't, it almost doesn't seem tied to what's really happening.
- [33:23]
Drew
Because okay, if, if I can step into Tom's brain for a second. Your problem is that we spend too much. Government spending deficit we need to focus on.
- [33:30]
Tom Bilyeu
Why does that matter?
- [33:31]
Drew
Because debt is a cliff that we're racing off of and it's going to erase the whole next generation.
- [33:35]
Tom Bilyeu
Yes, but you're skipping something that's really important. It creates inequality. And humans have an innate fury over inequality. People will do the craziest stuff when they see that somebody has a better than them. So you at, at a fundamental genetic level, you can't have the level of inequality that we have. We will kill each other. It. History bears that out. So inequality is just massive. It's, it's why I'll look at someone like mom, Donnie and I'm like, we agree on the problem. We just violently disagree on the solution because we disagree on the cause and effect of how we got here. Like you showed me a video from something. Reich. David Reich. Yeah, Robert Reich. Thank you. And his take is so childish. And his take is basically billionaires are mopping up all the money. That's not how it works. That's, that's not the physics of money. So when I hear people talk about the economy, it is like a physicist going, no, no, no, you can walk out of a 10 story window, you're not going to fall. Not every time. Sometimes yes, but not every time. It's like, what are you talking about? Gravity is real. Maybe we've given a name to a phenomenon. Maybe it's not really gravity and it's whatever the knock on effect of the electrical, I don't know what the fuck? There's some debate about gravity anyway.
- [35:03]
Guest Expert on AI and Robotics
Sure.
- [35:04]
Tom Bilyeu
But nonetheless we can see if you step out of a 10 story window, you are going to move towards the object with the most mass and that object is planet Earth. And so you are going to fall towards planet Earth. And money works in the same way. Like it has a known set of rules and if you violate those rules a very known set of things will happen. And inequality leads to a country tearing itself apart from the inside. So you absolutely have to stop it.
- [35:34]
Chat Participant / Viewer
Some people are giving ranked choice voting as a solution for having a third party system.
- [35:42]
Tom Bilyeu
Maybe that's the answer.
- [35:43]
Chat Participant / Viewer
Can you explain that? I actually have no idea what that
- [35:45]
Tom Bilyeu
is and I, I can explain it but again I haven't spent a lot of time on this. But ranked choice would be okay, you've got seven candidates, whatever it isn't just choose one, it's put them in order. So my number one choice is Timmy. My number two choice is Sally. Bobby's my number three choice. And then they get points based on all the gazillions of people that voted for them. And like if you get five points for being in first, you get three points for being in second, so on and so forth. Then it's, you just tally up the number and it's like okay, across everybody, oddly enough it's Jeremy that wins because even though Jeremy like was hardly on anybody's radar, he's like the least defensive candidate. So a bunch of people put him in like fifth place and so the math just works out that he's not a love or hate candidate and so he's the one that goes through. Now again I have not spent time looking at that and so I don't know if people have tried that and we see does it actually yield good results or do you always get the milquetoast guy that nobody's for or against you? Like going back to the fears that Alexander Hamilton had around Washington failing to get elected because there would be a spoiler candidate because originally it was like whoever came in second place. Whoever came in first place became the president. Whoever came in second place became the Vice President. So they didn't run as a ticket, it was just sequential voting and like there were some real bizarre political shenanigans that were born out of that. And so given that there are knock on effects that I just have not looked at, I don't know if that's a great answer and maybe the solution or is a terrible thing that creates very weird political realities.
- [37:32]
Drew
No, it's the Only way to make viable third parties and fourth parties win. Because that's the thing. Right now it's politically hard to get a third party even on the ballot like the Libertarian Party. They have their government blessing that they're allowed to exist, but they're allowed to exist because they're 1% of the population. After that, you have to get just like what RFK just went through. You have to go through an insane primary process. You have to get a certain amount of votes to even be recognized federally as initial party. So I think if we were to kind of click that switch and have it be possible that more political parties can form, we can have them. But to your point, if it just becomes you have one choice against five different people, everybody's going to default. Why don't want Trump to win, so let me just make sure the establishment anti Trump wins. Or I don't want this socialist to win, so let me just make sure the establishment Republican wins. But ranked choice voting kind of forces you to say, okay, this is my first choice, this is my second choice, this is my third choice. And that aggregates of everybody having their ranked voting. Actually, to me, that's a better way because it allows people to say who I prefer versus this person or the highway. And I think this lesser of two evils is what's been keeping us in this death loop for the last 10 years. We need to stop doing the lesser of two evils and we need to start saying, I'm excited for this political party. And that's my whole like, gridlock. I think with two parties, as long as I'm anti you, I'm good. And I don't have to come up with new solutions. I don't have to come up with new. But a new party to become viable, they're going to have to. It's just like an entrepreneur. Right. If I'm trying to take over Ford, I can't just come up with another car that looks just like them, that's blue. I need to come up with another car that's more technology, that's innovative, that's something that we haven't seen before, like Tesla and disrupt the system. And I think we need another party to come and disrupt this political system.
- [39:13]
Tom Bilyeu
Interesting. Yeah. My take is different. My take is you're in a populist moment. In populist moments, it's all about emotion. It's all about electing a strong man. This is a psychological principle that you can see going back literally for thousands of years. It just, you're up against the physics of economies and the way that the human mind works. I don't know how do you balance those two things?
- [39:31]
Drew
The two things of like historical precedent? And it happens this way. It's always going to be that way with like, humans have agency and we can radically change our lives at like.
- [39:40]
Tom Bilyeu
I don't have to make those two things work because humans don't have agency. We live in a deterministic universe and humans are automata. I cannot stop myself from the sentences that I'm speaking right now. It just is what it is. That really is the truth. Now I don't spend a lot of time there because it that frame of reference. I mean, obviously I can't stop myself from spending time there because it's just how my mind works. But in terms of why, I would say even though I think that that is true, living your life as if it's true doesn't make any sense. You should live your life as if you, you have all the free will and autonomy in the world. You don't provably so. But again, acting like you're an automata is just going to make things worse. So I don't spend a lot of time talking about it.
- [40:21]
Drew
Man, that is a. That's a joyous way to put it. Thanks for really. Thanks for adding sunshine room. Tom.
- [40:27]
Tom Bilyeu
Here's the thing. If you guys want to explore it, because don't take my word for it. Read the book determined by. Oh God, what is his name? He is a Stanford professor. Polsky. Sapolsky. Robert Sapolsky. Read that book. It's crazy. Like you'll think you have. Bro. He hasn't thought about this. That's chapter seven. Well, there's no way he thought about that. Chapter 11, it's coming. It's crazy. He takes it all from quantum indeterminism to just like good old fashioned brain science. He really goes at it from every, every angle and leaves you nowhere to go.
- [41:08]
Drew
I want to read the book before I respond. So I'm going to read the book and then I'm gonna go through the books and I'm like, oh, this chapter seven was. Chapter 11. Was.
- [41:16]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, hit me with it, man, if you've got it. Julie, unfortunately, I agree with you. I agree with you. But Zach thinks it's a nonsense book. Zach, you gotta, you gotta point. You gotta point to. Chapter 11 is coming.
- [41:29]
Drew
Chapter 11?
- [41:29]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah.
- [41:30]
Drew
Chapter 11 for us is definitely coming.
- [41:32]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah. But Zach, tell me exactly why it's a nonsense book. I'd love to hear it.
- [41:39]
Drew
Capitalism creates Excess. The distribution of that excess creates inequalities.
- [41:43]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, I saw that. I don't know what he's talking about. Honestly, I don't think he does either. But if he can walk me through the cause and effect, then, listen, I want to know what's real. So if he. If he actually sees something that he thinks I'm missing, everybody else, that's research. This is missing. If he thinks that he can create something that allows us to look back at history and be like, oh, my God, this maps more closely, that would literally be a benefit to humanity. So I'm always open to being wrong. But rotor, it's determined by Robert Sapolsky.
- [42:19]
Drew
Kaya Pula. Pula. I hope I pronounced your name right. She said, or they said. Please help me understand. So if everything is predetermined, then what the hell does it matter that we change anything? Genuinely curious.
- [42:31]
Tom Bilyeu
I'll give a really brief answer. I don't find this topic very interesting. If everything is predetermined, then you couldn't stop yourself from asking that question, just like I can't stop myself from pushing back. But just because things are. Sorry. Not predetermined, deterministic. Just because things are deterministic doesn't mean that by putting an idea out into the world that you can't influence other people. You can and do. And all of us. And I think this is what confuses people, because we know we've all been changed by an idea that we encountered or we finally get disciplined one day or whatever we think. See, I can change, but the reality is you're a response machine. You are a chemical processing plant that your brain works in a certain way and you respond to stimulus in a certain way. And so, yeah, that just is what it is. But if you really had free will. It's funny. People are not going to like this. If you really had free will, you could think like an octopus. But you can't because you don't have free will.
- [43:26]
Drew
You can think like an octopus.
- [43:28]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, go for it. Be attracted to other octopi.
- [43:31]
Drew
Um, if I really have.
- [43:34]
Tom Bilyeu
Change your colors.
- [43:36]
Drew
I can think like an odd. Like. Are you saying octopi have free will?
- [43:40]
Tom Bilyeu
No, I'm saying I can.
- [43:41]
Drew
I can change my mental framing to have thoughts like a octopi has thoughts. Do they have thoughts?
- [43:48]
Tom Bilyeu
Yes, aggressively.
- [43:49]
Drew
What do occupy think about?
- [43:52]
Tom Bilyeu
Probably crab. A lot of crab. And self protection. Do you think animals don't have thoughts?
- [44:00]
Drew
Of course not. No, they don't have thoughts.
- [44:02]
Tom Bilyeu
What, you don't think animals have thoughts?
- [44:04]
Guest Expert on AI and Robotics
No.
- [44:04]
Drew
I don't.
- [44:05]
Tom Bilyeu
Oh, my. Okay. I'm not gonna take us down the path. That is fascinating.
- [44:10]
Drew
I'm here. Yeah. I don't think.
- [44:11]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah. That we earned that one.
- [44:12]
Drew
I think if they have thoughts, then they can create plants. And then once they can create plants, they can create, like.
- [44:17]
Tom Bilyeu
Bro, will you watch my octopus teacher, please? These motherfuckers plan. They use tools. Yeah.
- [44:25]
Drew
That's survival. Did he pay rent? They has occupied in May.
- [44:32]
Tom Bilyeu
They have a different economy, Drew. How about that?
- [44:34]
Drew
I'm just saying. Has they. Have they.
- [44:36]
Tom Bilyeu
So thoughts for you are only. You have to be able to invent something, because then the vast majority of humans don't have thoughts.
- [44:45]
Drew
Invent something. Yes, because you can invent, like, you can plan your day. You can.
- [44:49]
Tom Bilyeu
Planning is very different than inventing something.
- [44:51]
Drew
Yeah.
- [44:52]
Tom Bilyeu
Octopus plan like that for sure. Have you seen some of the escapes that they do out of zoos and stuff? It's crazy. Peace. There. There is a movement right now that octopi are so smart that it's immoral to eat them because they may be sentient creatures in the. A very similar way to us.
- [45:13]
Drew
Yeah. If they were.
- [45:14]
Tom Bilyeu
So anyway, this really.
- [45:16]
Drew
I haven't seen an octopi Tesla yet, so I don't know.
- [45:19]
Tom Bilyeu
Yet. Yet is the key word there, Drew. They just don't have a good hiring plan yet, and they only live for 18 months, so there's.
- [45:25]
Drew
For 18 months. That's hilarious. I'm not funny. But, man, what. What would. How would your life be different if you only lived for 18 months? I'm sorry. We. We have a plan.
- [45:34]
Tom Bilyeu
It would be very, very different.
- [45:36]
Drew
At hour three, we're coming back to that question.
- [45:38]
Tom Bilyeu
Okay, Terry G. I'm with you.
- [45:40]
Drew
What's up, Kens? Yeah.
- [45:42]
Tom Bilyeu
This is nuts.
- [45:43]
Drew
This. This is just hilarious. No context. Let's. I want you to hear from her.
- [45:46]
Guest Sharing Trump-Macron Story
And I get another message that's like, hey, keep your phone on. And anyways, this phone call is coming from Florida. I pick up the phone, and lo and behold, you know. So here's what happened. I. I'm negotiating this thing. I'm negotiating Ukraine and Russia, and you wouldn't believe how many. How many parts are part. It is President Donald J. Trump. He is calling me. And in true President Trump fashion, he jumps right into the narrative. We're not. Hey, how you do. He just, like, jumps right into the narrative of exactly how this went down. I am literally. I. It is hard to catch my breath to comprehend that four days ago, I'm ending a series about Brigitte Macron. And for. And now I'm speaking to the President. And the topic of conversation, no matter which way you want to slice it, it's about Macron's wife's penis. I mean, there's no other way to say it, right? Anyways, I have Macron.
- [46:43]
Tom Bilyeu
I'd like, so crazy humans are fascinated by other humans sex lives. Like, there's no two ways about it. I'm fascinated by this. Like, I want. I can't believe it, but I want more information. But the fact that Trump called a podcaster to be like, hey, I'm gonna need you to chill on this one is wild. This is wild.
- [47:11]
Chat Participant / Viewer
How does he have time for that?
- [47:13]
Tom Bilyeu
Well, so, okay, this is a whole nother thing. I wasn't gonna bring it up, but since you did, I can't help myself. I really want to exist in a world where people are told, hey, Tom's gonna be calling you. Just make sure that you have your phone on you. That's so dope. I love that so much. And then that you don't have to do any pleasantries. This is, like, tickling my G spot. Oh, God. If I could just get on, not even be like, hey, how's it going? Just straight into. So this is what happened. Oh, it's terrible. I get it. This is why my social circle is so small, because maybe I had too many vaccines. I'm super autistic when it comes to this kind of thing. Oh, God. Anyway, so, yeah, how does he have time for it? Because people terraform like that and they're like, make sure you have your phone on you. Doesn't do pleasantries. Just gets right into the thing. Plus, you've got to have, like, you've just got to be built for this. I am not built for this. I could not do political life. Oh, my God, the thought of having to do all these calls. And, like, my response to him would be like, bro, are you for real? Like, listen, she's either a man or she's not. And, like, I am not going to call a podcaster up to ask them to chill. That's crazy. But that's politics. That. That is getting close to power. People wanting to do something for you, and it is incredibly useful. Like money. Power is not what people think, but boy, oh, boy, is it useful.
- [48:32]
Drew
But the interesting thing to me is we forget, like, Macron was just getting slapped up on a jetway by her.
- [48:37]
Tom Bilyeu
That's crazy.
- [48:38]
Drew
So the fact that, like, he's trying to pull strings to get Trump to make a personal phone, I Think he
- [48:43]
Tom Bilyeu
got slapped after that.
- [48:44]
Drew
But, yeah, that's. I feel like it doesn't seem crazy to say, like, hey, Ukraine. Yeah, we're talking about it. But, yeah, between me and you, like,
- [48:54]
Tom Bilyeu
you got to get this chick. Yeah.
- [48:55]
Drew
Can you.
- [48:55]
Tom Bilyeu
Can you make the chill?
- [48:56]
Drew
Like, it's. It's wild.
- [48:59]
Tom Bilyeu
Wild. Wild is.
- [49:01]
Drew
It has.
- [49:01]
Tom Bilyeu
Keep playing this, because there's more. Like, this gets so weird.
- [49:05]
Guest Sharing Trump-Macron Story
Macron, we're speaking at the White House, and I'm walking him to his car, and, you know, he says to me, Mr. President, can I speak to you for a second? I say, of course. You can speak to me about anything.
- [49:16]
Tom Bilyeu
What's going on?
- [49:17]
Guest Sharing Trump-Macron Story
Macron wants to have a little sidebar. And then Macron says to him, Mr. President, do you know Candace Owens? And I say, yes, yes, of course I know Candace Owens.
- [49:26]
Tom Bilyeu
What's going on?
- [49:27]
Guest Sharing Trump-Macron Story
And then he continues his narrative, and he tells me that Emmanuel Macron is requesting to his face, that I stop speaking about his wife. And one of the things Trump said is, like, you know, he tells me, you know, she's old, and this is really, really impacting her. And then he said, you know, I saw her. You know, I saw her up close, and she looks like a woman to me. Just like a woman to me. I had dinner with her at the top of the Eiffel Tower. And I explained to him that she has had this amazing doctor who specializes in transgenderism, surgeries, or feminization procedures.
- [50:05]
Guest Discussing Diddy Trial
I'm talking to the President about this, guys. This is crazy.
- [50:09]
Guest Sharing Trump-Macron Story
This is wacky. And I said to Trump, and I will be honest that at that moment, I realized that one day this is going to go into my autobiography. And so I got to say something funny. And I just said. I said to him, you know, respectfully, Mr. President, it's not my fault that he married someone with a penis. He then tells me, we're really close to getting this thing done. And he throws in the art of the deal type stuff.
- [50:31]
Tom Bilyeu
He starts complimenting, ignored it. Like, there's no thing to say to that. You can't acknowledge it. You know, that this video is going to be made someday. So you've got to be careful.
- [50:43]
Drew
You're talking to a content creator. This is going to be content.
- [50:46]
Tom Bilyeu
Oh, my God, this is nuts. But here's the interesting thing about this. This happened back in February. And so she really did keep it under wraps. So, yeah, Trump was like, hey, you got to chill for a minute. And so she said, okay, I'll hit pause. Because Trump insinuated. She said, he didn't come out and say it, but she had been called previously. We didn't show that part because she tells the story for like 22 minutes or something. But earlier someone from the White House had called and said, listen, Macron is actually using this to hold up the negotiations over Russia and Ukraine. And so Candace is like, well, I don't want to see Christians die, which maybe you understand better than I. That just feels weird to me. But I don't want Christian death on my hands, essentially. And so cool, I'll sit on this, but I'm not going to sit on it forever. She says she told the President that she made it very clear this is a temporary thing, but she sat on it between February, end of February and now whatever, end of June. So pretty interesting, man. Pretty interesting the way that this all plays out, but that this is about potentially allegedly the president of France's wife being a trans man or a trans woman. Excuse me, that is. It's just a sentence I did not expect to utter.
- [52:14]
Drew
Like, independent media has power. And I like. I know, like social media, we could revolt in 2020. They were organizing protests on Twitter. Like, so I understand that, like, social media has power and things like that, but a lot of times we think we're shouting into the void and we're in our own echo chambers and you don't realize who's listening, where it goes, the people in. Because honestly, I don't think Trump is scrolling through Candace's Owens. I don't think he watches her every day or anything like that. But when the clip goes viral, somebody probably hands him the phone, he looks at it and things like that. So it's interesting to see that independent media having an impact, so much so that it impacts Ukraine, Russia negotiations. Now the war isn't over. It's not like her holding this was the reason why we have a peace deal, but at the same time, the fact that it was even brought up while Macron was in the White House.
- [52:59]
Tom Bilyeu
Also that this is the thing that creeps me out about politicians. We don't know that this is true. This is all allegedly. But if it is true that a world leader would be so grotesque as to delay by even a second negotiated peace settlement that will save lives, because he wants to use as a bargaining chip the fact that an American podcaster did a series on the fact that he is allegedly married to a trans woman, like, that is gross. Like, really, really gross. And I. That admittedly fits my mental map of how people in power behave.
- [53:46]
Drew
Crazy do. There has to be fundamentally something that like was politics always this way? I guess, you know, the Marilyn man, Marilyn Monroe scandal with jfk. So there was always this messy marriage of like media and politics for longer than we see. Maybe just because with social media we're seeing it more and people have platforms they could tell us these behind the scenes stories that would have ended up in a memoir 30 years from now. We never would have known. But it's just again, it's interesting to kind of see the visibility of this.
- [54:16]
Tom Bilyeu
It's just non stop sausage making. That's all we see.
- [54:20]
Drew
It is.
- [54:21]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah. I, I for one am glad. I want as much transparency as we can get you. You're never going to get all the way to 100%. That's probably good because there are things you need to keep secret, blah, blah, blah. But that has been weaponized against us for so long. The fact that we're getting that much closer but people aren't wrong. Like you're going to get a ton of incorrect information. I will hesitate to use the buzzword, but you're going to get a lot of information. That speculation that just ends up not being credible and we all have to parse through it. It is what it is.
- [54:51]
Drew
Yeah. Meta just announced their super intelligence team. They have poached all different researchers and AI developers from OpenAI, Deepsea, Google. I know NBA free agency just started but these guys are getting $100 million deals and not ball players.
- [55:07]
Tom Bilyeu
So this is awesome. This is like the nerd draft.
- [55:11]
Guest Expert on AI and Robotics
It literally.
- [55:13]
Tom Bilyeu
These guys are getting big dollars, man. Big dollars.
- [55:16]
Drew
Okay, I know Meta got endless.
- [55:18]
Tom Bilyeu
Hold on, hold on. Rosco P Co is saying I'm Ross. Is that really the Ross or can we verify that?
- [55:27]
Drew
No, Ross, he's like aspired games or something. Aspirated games or something like that. Roscoe P. Wait a second.
- [55:33]
Tom Bilyeu
Nice try.
- [55:33]
Drew
Don't try to pull a fast one on us. Okay?
- [55:37]
Tom Bilyeu
Sorry.
- [55:37]
Drew
Yes, we'll see $100 million signing bonuses, equity deals out the wazoo is AI. This is like a big virtue signal for Meta. That's saying this is our future.
- [55:48]
Tom Bilyeu
Right?
- [55:48]
Drew
Because you know, this is a virtue signal. But I mean you spent $2 billion on payroll. Like this is like the Yankees. Like once you do that you have to championship. There's no if ins or buts, expectations are risen.
- [55:58]
Tom Bilyeu
I have a feeling that this is not signaling on his behalf. He's going to do the thing and then he's going to signal. I think that there are people get so caught up in the Mark Zuckerberg Looks like a lizard thing. That they lose sight of what an unbelievably good entrepreneur he is. The fact that this kid has survived as long as he has is pretty amazing. Structuring the deal so that he always had that he could never be voted out or kicked out. Brilliant. The fact that he then has, despite the fact that he can't be pulled out when he sees that, okay, this isn't working right now, he will change course. He's done a very good job. I mean, he's running a public company, so the public is voting every day with their dollars whether they think he's doing the right thing. And Facebook has remained, Meta has remained one of the most high performing companies in ever, quite frankly. So I think that this is a very shrewd move by somebody who completely understands what's going on in AI, who saw that he was falling behind, that what they were doing, even though they're doing it open source, what they were doing on the open source side wasn't getting the adoption that they were hoping it was. He was able to go and attract talent. As I teach entrepreneurs inside of Impact Theory University is one of the most important things that you do as a CEO is attract talent. And if you can't attract talent, you're gonna stall out. That's tough. Like when we first started the video game, this is some of the talent recruiting I'm most proud of. Like, dude, the only credibility I had was, okay, this guy's a content creator. Okay, this guy built a protein bar company. But what does he know about games? Nothing. So it was like nobody wanted to work with us. And I had to go out and convince like top level people from Blizzard, from Riot Games, from Disney to like come in that first year and help us get our feet under us. And we did. And the game is getting so much better. I'm very excited about that. So. But I had to attract that talent and that, that is not easy. So seeing what Zuckerberg has done here is pretty extraordinary. Even though he's throwing money at it, Even with money, it's not as easy as you would think it is
- [58:17]
Drew
at the end of the year. This is Ricky Martinez's question. At the end of the year, who you think is going to be AI Top dog, let's say a year from now. We got the Super Intelligence team. Now from Meta, we have OpenAI, we have Anthropic, we have Gemini, we have Deep Seek in the Wings, who's kind of embargoed with the chips thing, but they just got that new deal. So that should free them up. Who do you think it will be?
- [58:35]
Tom Bilyeu
It won't be one dominant player because by the end of the year we will not have AGI. So you're not going to have like that fast acceleration and somebody really steps ahead. So it's going to be on different things right now. V3 was so transformative from a media perspective that I give Google the edge there. What they're doing with flow is very innovative. So I could certainly see that being a dominant player though I that will be the one generating the most revenue, that will be the one that the most people use. Still, I think that custom Lauras is probably the real thing. Like when I look at what we actually do to create the stuff for Project Kaizen, that's we have to do custom stuff. You're not getting things off of a VO3 shelf just because it can't mimic your characters. And so for your like AI reels and things like that, for companies that want to do like a straight down the middle commercial type thing, you can. VO3 is probably going to be your player, VO4 or 5, whatever it is by then.
- [59:33]
Drew
Yeah.
- [59:34]
Tom Bilyeu
So I could see that in terms of just everyday usage, I think that OpenAI is still going to be the dominant player. We'll see if there's been enough brain drain from what Meta just did, but I doubt it. And then from a what gets the most usage. I think what Meta's doing is going to need more than a year to really gain traction. But I could see in the next three years, given that they're focused on an open source thing, everybody, if they really can make that step function in the next call it six to eight months. You could get a lot of people that go, oh, I'm going to build on the back of Meta. That's what we were planning to do. So one of the things I'm trying to integrate with Kaizen is I want an external toy that matches this pet that we call codename Exotics. I don't know what the final thing will be, but inside the game there'll be like these little pets called Exotics. You set them up kind of like tower defense. They help protect your base and I want you to be able to have a relationship with them in game, out of game. And so we were going to build that on Llama so if they can make the step function, because I think everybody knows I just have a little distrust for anything coming out of China. So I'd like to avoid deep seek if I can. But we'll use whatever's cutting edge. I hope that Llama can get there because then we can run it natively ourselves. And that would be a huge cost savings over using something like OpenAI. So anyway, if they can pull it off, there are tons of people like me that are like, yes, please, that would be great. And then now you build for everything in their ecosystem and so obviously that's a huge win for them.
- [61:08]
Drew
You didn't mention gr, your boy. So that's.
- [61:11]
Tom Bilyeu
Here's the thing. Like, right now, Grok could be a dark horse. We'll see. I don't. The only thing I use Grok for is like, if I want to find out what's going on in culture, I'll go to grok. It's very fast. It's tied into X. But like, when I'm writing, I very rarely use X. If I want like a lot of details added to an outline, sometimes I'll use X but. Or Grok. But. The honest answer is that I've learned now ways. Oh, I. I've learned ways to do it inside of Chat GPT and I just prefer chatgpt. But the one thing that I will use GROK for is it really does seem to optimize better than anybody else for this is true or not. So Chat GPT will give me a factor and then I'll go and sometimes I'll be like, there's no way. This seems too crazy. I'll go to GROK and be like, is the following statement true? And then I'll just paste in what Chad GPT told me. And it does an incredible breakdown of. There's actually three claims with inside of this. Here's how you would have to interpret this for that to be true. Blah, blah, blah. So, like, one of the facts in my deep dive coming up on Monday. Make sure you watch it. I think this one's a banger. Is that the US economy is bigger than China, Japan and Germany combined. And I was like, that's obviously a hallucination. So I went to X because people are like, no, China's bigger than us. What are you talking about? So I went to X and I was like, is this true? And it's like, yes, this is true. If what you're talking about is nominal gdp, which is the most common way that things are compared. The people that say that China is bigger are using purchasing power as a comparison. So that only is true inside of their own country. And so it's like. And that's a far less common metric. Most People look at gdp, so I was like, damn. So it's like you're gonna get that kind of breakdown from X and you're gonna get it very fast. So given that our timeline is one year, I just don't know that Elon's gonna be able to make it relevant enough. It really does just, I don't know, just lacks that je ne sais quoi. But three years now it's like the Peter Thiel principle of never bet against Elon. Musk starts to come into play, but I think it's going to take him some time.
- [63:17]
Drew
Got it. Marc Andreessen had a good take on the future of AI and it's not just LLM.
- [63:21]
Guest Expert on AI and Robotics
So I wanted to today, AI is software, right? And so when you use AI, you use ChatGPT, it's an app on your phone, right? It doesn't, there's no manufacturing kind of component. You know, really, you know, people are building giant data centers, but you know, it's not a huge generator of like middle class jobs. But there's another turn on AI that's coming, which is the turn to. The turn to embodied physical AI, which is robotics, right. And this is a transition that has already happened, it's already actually happened in drones, where drones went from being human piloted to actually being, you know, autonomously piloted. They, they now fly themselves. It's a transition that's happening in cars right now, right? Where cars went from, you know, basically purely physical products to now basically being rolling computers that drive themselves. And if you haven't tried this yet, if go to, go to. If you ever have the misfortune of finding yourself in San Francisco Francisco, take away mo. It's amazing to live in a cyberpunk future reality where you're in literally a state of the art self driving car that's literally out of the jets and is driving past people who are dying of fentanyl overdoses on the sidewalk. I recommend having the experience at least
- [64:19]
Tom Bilyeu
once,
- [64:22]
Guest Expert on AI and Robotics
but the self driving car really does work.
- [64:23]
Tom Bilyeu
So I know this isn't why you brought this up, but what is crazy is sci fi writers get so much right about the future that I'm always like, man, like there really is something about the vision of a cyberpunk future has always been that you'll get these incredible technological advancements, but they will come at the cost of just this insane inequality. And I could never, until I started actually learning about economics, I could never understand why that was always the future. Why wasn't it Solar Punk, which you are now admittedly starting to see more of people that imagine a big, beautiful, not utopian, but like a beautiful future that's technologically infused. And, and that gives me some hope that, that either sci fi writers are beginning to intuit a different shift or they're just trying to do something new. But that cyberpunk reality is coming true. So hopefully it's short lived. But it is fascinating that people could see that. I mean, they were writing this stuff back in the 80s, man. So the 80s was a long time ago. As much as I hate to admit
- [65:26]
Guest Expert on AI and Robotics
that it's really happening. And then what's going to happen, you've all probably seen, you know, Elon has this optimus robot that he's building these humanoid robots, like the, the, the general purpose robotics thing is going to happen and it's going to happen in the next decade and it's going to happen at giant scale. And I, I think there's a plausible argument which Elon also believes that robotics is going to be the biggest industry in the history of the planet.
- [65:47]
Tom Bilyeu
How could it not?
- [65:47]
Guest Expert on AI and Robotics
It should be gigantic. There's billions, tens of billions, hundreds of billions of robots of all shapes, sizes, descriptions running around doing all kinds of things. Those robots need to get designed and built. Right. And so my view is, you know, we don't try to get the old manufacturing jobs back. What we try, what we should do is lean hard into the manufacturing jobs of the future, which is designing and building all of these new things. Right, by the way, which includes drones and cars. Right. And robots.
- [66:12]
Tom Bilyeu
This is Elon's pushback on the big beautiful bill. So Trump keeps spinning it that he's just mad that he's losing the EV credits. He's talked endlessly that if you wiped out all of the EV credits, then Tesla would be in a better position. His beef seems to be that you're giving subsidies to old technologies but not to new technologies. And so, hey, if you wipe out all subsidies, great. If you selectively subsidize one thing and not another, that becomes a problem. And so when you think about we need to control our own manufacturing, let me tell you, I'd much rather be controlling the manufacturing of the future than controlling the manufacturing of the past. Doesn't mean that there aren't certain critical industries that we do need to have here. But dude, robots are going to be everywhere. Farming all of the labor that we think we need from immigrants and, and you know, in a short term I'm sure that there is some utility from that, but I just saw a broccoli picker.
- [67:08]
Drew
Yeah.
- [67:09]
Tom Bilyeu
And it was crazy. And it's just again, it can work 24 7. Like it just does its thing. So I don't think people fully understand how many forms robots are going to take, how many of them they are going to be, how much you're going to rely on them, how suddenly your average middle class person in the not too distant future will be able to afford their own. Yeah, we'll be able to afford their own robot in home.
- [67:34]
Drew
Can we do the Brackley up?
- [67:35]
Tom Bilyeu
It won't be too many years, call it 10, before even lower income houses will have access. Even if like only in a shared thing where it's like I have a robot cleaner that comes by once or twice a week to clean my apartment. You're going to see all of that. And we want to be a part of that future for sure of actually getting the manufacturing jobs from making these things.
- [67:59]
Guest Expert on AI and Robotics
Shouldn't be building manufacturing lines that have people sitting on a rubber mat for 10 hours screwing screws in by hand. But we should be building, you know, what Elon calls, he calls alien dreadnought factories, right? Which is like these super sophisticated factories with like tons of robotics. But you can imagine thousands and thousands of different categories of industrial production that have to happen all across the US in order to make this happen and would cause just like enormous economic growth throughout the country. We get a huge payoff from all the tech investment that the coasts are making, but we generate many tens or hundreds of millions of jobs in the countryside. And then the U.S. the U.S. would, would lead. It would be, you know, be the third industrial or fourth industrial revolution. We would, we would lead in the development of all these new things. And then you get to the national security side of this, which is if you don't do this, you're living in a world of Chinese robots for a second.
- [68:42]
Tom Bilyeu
Tanner in chat has a really interesting point. I think this is true. Wait until they put the fields on big moving platforms and they start bringing the crops of the machines. Is wild. That is true. Like there are going to be things that we can't even imagine right now. Like. Oh God, I forget he was talking about this might have been Senator Massey. He's an electrical engineer by trade and he built himself a chicken coop that moves. So the chicken coop moves. So the chickens get to like eat all the different grass, but they're also protected from, you know, coyotes and stuff. So they're going to be all kinds of like massive things. Vertical farming is going to become a thing where we control all of the environment. Yeah. This is going to get very, very interesting.
- [69:26]
Guest Expert on AI and Robotics
And that has, you know, very profound consequences for. Let's just say. Yeah, profound consequences.
- [69:31]
Commercial Narrator 2
It's an important policy point. And I, I want to, I want to dig into this a little bit more. A lot of. I was just in an interview up there, like, aren't we going to destroy tens of millions of jobs? Isn't AI scary? A lot of people are very scared right now with the disruption. I'm very excited about the higher productivity because I see it being disinflationary. I see it creating more jobs. How do we, how do we. If assuming we're aligned, how do we explain this to people? How do we explain. Explain. This is actually a really good thing for the country because a lot of Luddites are going to attack this.
- [69:53]
Tom Bilyeu
No, I have not.
- [69:54]
Guest Expert on AI and Robotics
Yeah. So the, the letters. The letters are wrong.
- [69:57]
Tom Bilyeu
Wait, pause, pause. Nor Busy. Nor Busy. We need to know more. Nor Busy is saying. Did he not guilty.
- [70:06]
Chat Participant / Viewer
He was found guilty of two of the lesser charges and acquitted of the three.
- [70:10]
Tom Bilyeu
Which two? Breaking news, everybody. Let's go.
- [70:14]
Chat Participant / Viewer
That was from the chat.
- [70:15]
Tom Bilyeu
Which two? Oh, so we should probably verify, but which two? Drew, you looking this up?
- [70:20]
Drew
I'm looking it up live.
- [70:23]
Chat Participant / Viewer
Also. Lyric got back to you.
- [70:26]
Tom Bilyeu
Awesome. Do you tell me what that is? As soon as we're done with the
- [70:29]
Drew
Diddy thing, I gotta pull it up. Sean. Diddy Combs was acquitted of racketeering and sex trafficking charges on Wednesday and was found guilty of two lesser charges of transportation of former girlfriends for prostitution. The verdict is seen as a victory for Combs, who has cleared the most serious charges against him. His defense team opted not to call witnesses. Before arresting, Combs had ferociously denied the allegations against them. The live briefing made.
- [70:49]
Tom Bilyeu
All right, so, okay, so is he going to jail? When are we going to find that out?
- [70:54]
Drew
We'll see that. But to. Because transportation of. For prostitution is a slap on the wrist in comparison.
- [71:02]
Tom Bilyeu
Is it really? I thought it was still like 10 or 15 years.
- [71:03]
Drew
He was facing RICO charges and. Yeah, yeah. So in real, for real. In comparison, like if you go to
- [71:08]
Tom Bilyeu
jail for 10 years, that's, that's a long ass time.
- [71:12]
Drew
A maximum sentence of 10 years in prison for the transportation to engage in prostitution. That's a maximum, though. There's no way he gets 10 years. Yo, I seriously Diddy over robots.
- [71:24]
Tom Bilyeu
Rick, come on. It's breaking news.
- [71:28]
Drew
Like, is Diddy a good person? No. Did he do a lot of lucid things? No. Is Diddy a sex Trafficker, racketeer. Like, mustache twirling. Like he has a bunch of 14 year olds in his basement. I don't think so. So it was just interesting how he got all these cases. Like, I feel like people wanted Diddy to be Epstein so bad.
- [71:47]
Tom Bilyeu
Like, that's interesting.
- [71:48]
Drew
They really wanted to. All the anger and stuff that they had for Epstein, they wanted to put on Diddy and kind of like he should take, like, not take the fall, but, like, they finally caught somebody, so they wanted. They wanted that head on the stake. And I just think that.
- [72:01]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah. Oh, man. If he doesn't go to prison, which seems impossible, but if he doesn't go to prison, man. Trial by media. That is correct, Riley.
- [72:09]
Drew
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. He's. He's cooked regardless. Like, he's going.
- [72:11]
Tom Bilyeu
I'll be so interested to see what he does.
- [72:13]
Drew
He's going into a black hole. There's no way.
- [72:14]
Tom Bilyeu
No way, no way. That guy does not have the constitutional ability to go into a black hole. If he doesn't go to jail and he gets out, bro. What. What does he take a beat, maybe a year or something like that? And then he is going to go ham. Yeah, that. That is my prediction. The question is, like, what will happen? Because if he's. People are not going to do things with him on a corporate perspective until he can build back. And so does he get desperate? Like, does he go liver king and, like, he has a psychological break because he loses the house and, like, the. The money dries up. That'll be interesting to see. So, yeah, I would say buckle up. Gonna get weird.
- [72:52]
Drew
Everybody says he will double down. He's 60, and he just went through, like, Have y' all seen him? He has gray hair. We never used to see Diddy with gray hair.
- [72:58]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, like, happens when you're in jail.
- [72:59]
Drew
But I mean, he's.
- [73:00]
Tom Bilyeu
He's.
- [73:01]
Drew
He's aging. I feel like this, like, fundamentally changed him. People in the industry are not going to take, like, he's like, Kanye. Like, he's toxic. So it's like he's going to be yelling at people. Will people pay attention to him? Will people listen to him?
- [73:11]
Tom Bilyeu
That's a whole other question.
- [73:12]
Drew
I don't think so.
- [73:12]
Tom Bilyeu
That is a whole nother question.
- [73:15]
Drew
What's the. What's the problem? Did he. Had to be.
- [73:18]
Tom Bilyeu
Did.
- [73:18]
Drew
Come on, give it to us. Give it to us. Give it to us. Hop in here.
- [73:21]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, you need to brace yourself.
- [73:23]
Guest Discussing Diddy Trial
Yeah. He's been found not guilty on three counts, and there were five. Yeah.
- [73:27]
Tom Bilyeu
So he's on two.
- [73:28]
Guest Discussing Diddy Trial
Yeah. Which is sex trafficking. Which is like the. That's the one that they had the concrete evidence. They just had receipts. So they have a bunch of receipts.
- [73:37]
Tom Bilyeu
What do you think he's going to be sentenced to? How many years?
- [73:40]
Guest Discussing Diddy Trial
I don't have it in front of me. But he's already cleared for lifetime. He won't get life sentence. They're actually looking for him to be released today. Is what, the release? Yeah, release on a million dollar bail. Because the things.
- [73:54]
Tom Bilyeu
Oh, between now and sentencing.
- [73:55]
Guest Discussing Diddy Trial
Yeah, because what he's been charged with, it's like, again, I don't have it right.
- [73:59]
Tom Bilyeu
Like the really serious.
- [74:00]
Drew
Yeah, I'm trying to find.
- [74:01]
Guest Discussing Diddy Trial
He's been cleared. Yeah. So I really.
- [74:03]
Tom Bilyeu
And you think this is a miscarriage of justice.
- [74:06]
Guest Discussing Diddy Trial
So I never want someone to be arrested or put in prison if they didn't do it. So I'm not that person that just jumps on the bandwagon because he's a guy and my hair's like a state. Oh my God. Because he's a guy and someone's saying it. Like, I want to make sure that I'm always very emotionally sober and non biased when it comes to these sorts of things. But babe, there's so much visual evidence of the crap he's done. The problem is, is it a federal crime?
- [74:34]
Tom Bilyeu
But are the things that he's done, are they the two things that he was convicted on or do you think there was a literal miscarriage of justice and either somebody got to the jurors, they're dumb.
- [74:44]
Guest Discussing Diddy Trial
No, I don't think. I think it's biasness. When you look at this eight and let me know if you guys are interested. But there's. Out of the whole jury, eight of them are men. Obviously we have.
- [74:54]
Tom Bilyeu
So you think men can't be trusted?
- [74:57]
Guest Discussing Diddy Trial
No, don't put words in my guys. I deal with this.
- [75:00]
Tom Bilyeu
That's what I heard.
- [75:01]
Guest Discussing Diddy Trial
I did not say that. You do not put.
- [75:03]
Tom Bilyeu
So, but why, why are they biased just because they're men?
- [75:05]
Guest Discussing Diddy Trial
I mean, we have a different perspective, I think, on sexual encounters. And one of the things. So I actually interviewed God, I think it was Andrew Bustamante, CEO, CIA, spy. But I think he was the one that actually said you have to think about. Also, for instance, age, a lot of the men were over 50. Now when you look at gain, you've probably got older men here. So I'm not saying everyone's like this, but you perceive consent slightly differently. So it's like, well, I grabbed her ass like growing up that's what men were like. If you get on the tube now, men don't do that, at least in my experience. So men also have a different. So the age, the fact that they're male, does it contribute? Yes, I think also the final thing is I'm not gonna get. I'm not gonna get into details on this because last time you guys like went after me, but coercive control, coercive control isn't currently illegal in New York.
- [76:04]
Tom Bilyeu
Praise Jesus.
- [76:05]
Guest Discussing Diddy Trial
Don't get me started, Billy.
- [76:07]
Tom Bilyeu
Don't get me started.
- [76:07]
Guest Discussing Diddy Trial
I will. I'll fight this one. So coercive control isn't illegal, but it is illegal in the UK now. It is illegal, I think in certain states. So that's even another thing. It's like, it's illegal, but only some places. It just so happens that the case was in New York and so it's not considered illegal. So he wasn't able, they weren't able to charge him or accuse him of coercive control. So I think putting all those elements together is what I think has contributed to the results today.
- [76:37]
Drew
Man, this is going to be wild.
- [76:40]
Tom Bilyeu
Like if he doesn't go to jail at all, that will be wild.
- [76:43]
Drew
So in essence, what do you think the second order consequences of this? Because I remember I stuck in for that one episode I sat in when you did the Diddy series on women and impact. Make sure everybody goes watch it.
- [76:54]
Guest Discussing Diddy Trial
Got series out. Yeah, we've got covered everything.
- [76:55]
Drew
But it you. I remember you said it took so much courage. Like women were discouraged from state like coming forward and they thought because Cassie was the first domino, other people kind of started. Do you think that this not guilty vertical would kind of have an opposite effect of that?
- [77:09]
Guest Discussing Diddy Trial
I'm so glad you brought this up because so I'm about to shoot a verdict episode right after you guys are done. And that's one of the things I'm like, women already have a trouble speaking up and coming out when somebody has done something, especially when you're powerful. What does this say? So look, they're saying now that Diddy will be charged in civil lawsuit. There's going to be something like 200 civil lawsuits against him where they're just going to sue him. But that's money. That's very different than you are going to prison because you have abused women. So I think I do worry that a lot of women are going to stay silent, especially when it comes to power, because they're like, well, look what happened. Why would I speak up, go on the stand. It's like Jane. Jane was the. Is a pseudonym for his ex girlfriend. Well, like she had to put her name. Well, not had to, but she chose to put her name, you know, not have her name out.
- [78:03]
Guest Sharing Trump-Macron Story
Why?
- [78:04]
Guest Discussing Diddy Trial
Because if something like this happens, who's going to come after her now? So Cassie had so much strength and confidence to speak out after all that time. But how many women now are going to be silenced because of this?
- [78:16]
Drew
You guys messed up my whole plan because Diddy charges dropped and we were halfway through AI. I want to close this loop though, because I think that the point that Andreessen was making at the end of this video is that AI right now being a software based system is only benefiting a certain sect of people. Whereas, like software communities are expanding, like the coastal cities. People who know how to leverage software are going to get the biggest bump and that the big chasm, the next frontier of AI. Although we're always talking about AGI and asi, it's the world of atoms and rebuilding, the industrial world, the physical world, with the knowledge and the learnings that we.
- [78:50]
Tom Bilyeu
I think there's an even more important thing. He's very onto it. He's absolutely correct. AI has to manifest in the physical world where you can interact with robots and stuff like that. That's already happening. That's going to keep happening for sure. The more important thing is if AI cannot figure out the laws of physics, we are in trouble. Your media is never going to be as good as it could be, because if it understands the laws of physics, now it's more like working inside of a game engine where you can tell the thing like, hey, you prompt it. This is what I want. It gives it to you, but then it gives it to you in a way that you can edit the variables, that you can move the camera, that fluid moves in a way that's physically real. So that you could say, no, I want the water rushing faster. And it knows what that means from a fluid dynamics perspective. So if you can get to that point. Oh my God, Drew. It would be unreal. First of all, you. If it understands the laws of physics, presumably it could do breakthroughs in physics. That would be insane. Uh, what that will mean for medical science will be just unbelievable. Now, I'm optimistic about the body, that you can go a really long way even without it understanding the laws of physics, because the body is basically just a bunch of patterns. And so you could really learn that. Uh, but if you want crazy, novel breakthroughs, I think you're going to have to understand Physics better. So that's going to be the big one. Like when you hear me say energy costs are going to drop to zero, I'm assuming it begins to understand physics and so it can help us with material science and things like that really offer some breakthroughs. So we'll see if it gets that far. But that's the big one that I. The only person I hear talking about it is Yann Lecun, and he's like, kids, it's never going to understand the laws of physics. LLMs are limited. And if he's right about that, then you will hit an asymptote and progress will stall out in a traditional S curve. And so right now we're on the like climb up. But you will eventually hit that top of the curve. And so if we're right about that, or if Yan is right about that, then you've got a wall coming at some point. Whether that wall is a year from now, five years from now, 10 years from now, don't know, but be interesting to see.
- [80:59]
Drew
Yes, it's crazy. Kind of the future of industries and how things are like, slowly progressing. All right, we're noticing this right now with Robinhood, who just announced, just announced tokenized stocks. So what this means is that people around the world can have access to the US Stock market through tokens. And their CEO gave a breakdown of exactly how it's all going to work
- [81:22]
Robinhood Representative
I some Apple stock. What happens is that order is transmitted to our back end and then it's transmitted to a US broker. Now, this is a registered tradfi broker dealer that will buy a traditional share from what I'll call a tradfi market. Now this could be a market maker or an exchange like the NYSE or the nasdaq. Then that share is transmitted back to the US broker, it's custodied in traditional form, and it gets sent to what we call our tokenization engine. Now this is where the magic really happens. So for every share that's being purchased from the tradfi market, one token is being minted. And this represents the exposure to this share. And then that token gets transmitted back to you. So what this means is right now every time you place a trade, an actual traditional share is being purchased from the market, held in custody, and a fresh token is minted. Then, similarly, when you want to sell these shares, the process goes in reverse. Robinhood instructs the introducing broker to sell the share, the underlying share, in the open market. Then we burn the token, give you the proceeds, and this is all available 24 hours a day, five days a week. So I'll call this phase one. Okay. And let's talk about what happens in phase two, which hopefully we'll be rolling out to customers in the next few months. So in phase two, we see the introduction of really fast.
- [83:29]
Tom Bilyeu
Pause it for a second. So where they're at now is interesting. And I really do still believe that Web3 is going to be a big thing. The blockchain unlocks certain things. And he'll talk more about it in the, in the end of the video. But all they're saying right now, phase one is basically, I'm just going to create a cryptographically provable dollar bill that can be exchanged for gold, but gold remains the real thing, meaning the stock is still stuck in the tradfi system. And I haven't done a deep dive on this, but I probably should. It is my understanding you don't actually own the stock anymore. The stock is actually being held by a company, and if that company were to go bankrupt, you would just be like any other creditor standing in line. That's insane. It used to be that you actually had the stock. And I know that there was. I think it was the one of them that was in France. I forget which one of the Rothschild kids was in France, but he literally had to bury his. His stock certificates in the yard because of the revolution. And, like, that's where we need to get back to. Where, where we need to be is that if you're doing something cryptographically, that the cryptographic thing is the, like the, the certificate itself, like, that is it right now, it's just a pointer that says this person has the right to this thing, which is stuck inside the tradfi system. He talks about getting outside of the tradfi system, but he's only partly correct. It just means that you can hold that pointer in a wallet outside. It's still not the thing. But I mean, this is where it starts. You've got to build these technologies, get people used to it. And then over time you say, well, hold on a second. Why are we still letting these things be trapped inside the tradfi system? But I think there's just really, really deep problems with all of these, like, quiet systems made by bankers and all that to do things that slowly undermine private property. No bueno. So this is a step in the right direction. But I wouldn't expect anybody to be like, oh, my God, this is amazing. Not if you understand what's really happening.
- [85:39]
Drew
The excitement was that it Opens up the US stock market and the crypto exchange to the global world in a easier way.
- [85:46]
Tom Bilyeu
Sort of. Sort of all it does is it says I have a pointer and I can use the pointer to trigger, technologically trigger the purchase order. Still that like if the systems are closed, that's why this is only five days a week. If the systems are closed, the only thing somebody can do is buy the pointer. Now you can admittedly sell the pointer, but you haven't actually transferred ownership of the thing stuck in the tradfi system. So now what's interesting is you would presumably lock in the price. Yes. Because you've already made the transaction, but that after hours trading, this is where I don't know the ins and outs of the stock market well enough to know if the following statement is true, but I think the price could change in before hours trading. And so now you've locked it in at a certain price because you're now out of it because you rely on this pointer system and now that other person either could get a win or a loss before they even take hold of the actual asset. So that's interesting.
- [86:51]
Drew
So Web three is the proliferation, I'm assuming of like blockchain. That's when.
- [86:56]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, it's just the next movement of the web is built on blockchain technology.
- [87:02]
Drew
Yeah. So I was always told that when you get into crypto especially you're supposed to get radically away from tradfi and blockchain. So web 3 was kind of the way to do it. So I was always instructed by like my crypto OGs, never trade on Robin Hood or like Coinbase or things like that because you don't necessarily own it.
- [87:21]
Tom Bilyeu
You're not my key, not my crypto.
- [87:23]
Drew
Yeah, you're playing the exchange. So unless you actually have like a wallet or something like that.
- [87:27]
Tom Bilyeu
Ever lost your keys? I haven't like keys to your car.
- [87:31]
Drew
Oh, yes.
- [87:31]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah. This is why people are always going to use things that look like the tradfi system. Now people like, I don't want to self custody my dollars. Right. I don't want dollars sitting in my house, even if they're in a safe. I don't want to have to spread my US dollars around the world and a bunch of different safes and like, like tell you part of the code and somebody else part of the code. And even I don't know the whole code. And I've got to get you guys on the phone, I've got to be like, that's crazy. No one wants to live like that. So the only way this is ever going to take place is when we recognize the current banking system is partly due to just humans don't want to have to think about this stuff to that level. So upgrading the system so that it's 24 7. That's dope. Love that. Upgrading the system so that like in the case of Bitcoin, you can't inflate my money. Love that. But this idea that people are going to self custody everything, get out of here. That is dumb. People are not going to. You've got to remove the friction in the system creating like regulatory frameworks such that I can have my easy to
- [88:33]
Drew
move
- [88:36]
Tom Bilyeu
stablecoin so that I can make transactions lightning fast anywhere in the world. No transaction fees. And I know that you have to hold a one for one off the book reserve. Yes, word. Love that. So all of those things are right in terms of there are these deep stupidities baked into the tradfi system. But some of the stuff they're trying to get around is just like nerds being like what's the problem? It's like bro multi sig and all that stuff is crazy town. I set all that up because we were playing with so much money, but it's like it was miserable. Hate, hate. So yeah, not. That's never going to be the thing.
- [89:12]
Drew
Yeah. Do you have that like hard and fast rule as well of like stay away from exchanges and stuff like that? Buy your crypto only so you're just more so as long as you're invested. You're invested.
- [89:21]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah. I keep the vast majority of my stuff in a cold wallet that I control. But I do all of my trading on exchanges. I leave call it 1 or 2% on exchanges just so if I've got a buy or sell order that that stuff is live and I don't have to think about it. I certainly pay attention. Like when it was a hostile crypto environment, I was way more like 99.9% in cold storage. But now that the environment's way more friendly, I'm a lot less worried about it. You want to make sure you're dealing with reputable companies. You want to remind yourself even reputable companies can do something stupid or get hacked or go out of business or whatever. But if you've got your money in a bank, I'm not sure why you're suddenly so paranoid about this. I think it is far more likely that people do something stupid, click on the wrong link, fall prey to social engineering, blah blah, blah. Like those are the things you need to worry about your own, like, forgetting where your keys are, that kind of thing. But certainly, like a coinbase, I think is proven. They've gone through a lot of ups and downs. They've been attacked by the government. They've come out the other side resilient. I don't trust anybody 100%, but those guys have earned a lot of respect in my book.
- [90:34]
Drew
Yeah. All right, let's go over to the uk, where now controversial punk rock band Bob Villain has lost their visa, lost everything, because they led this chant at the Glassberry Festival.
- [90:52]
Commercial Narrator
Free.
- [90:53]
Tom Bilyeu
Free. Free.
- [90:54]
Chat Participant / Viewer
Free.
- [90:56]
Tom Bilyeu
Free. All right, but have you heard this one, though? Death. Death to the idf. Deaf death to the idf. Deaf death to the idf. Deaf death to the idf.
- [91:09]
Drew
Ah,
- [91:12]
Tom Bilyeu
kids today.
- [91:14]
Drew
And now his visa is revoked.
- [91:15]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah. So, I mean, look, there's multiple levels of analysis that you can do on this one. Is that an incitement to violence? Almost certainly, yes. You can say that the IDF is neymorphous blob. The reality is that people are going to take that to be like, the actual military is made up of people. And so if you actually want death to happen to the idf, then you have to kill actual people. So if this went to the Supreme Court and the Supreme Court was like, yeah, this is obviously incitement to violence, I'd be like, yep, totally understand. I wouldn't be like, oh, my God, this is ridiculous. At the same time, you and I can't remember if we talked about this on camera or only off camera, but on this, this is what you pay artists to do. You want artists to push the boundaries. You want Sinead o' Connor to rip the picture of the Pope up, But there are going to be consequences. And this is only interesting because there are consequences. And so the very thing that you want these guys to do is to be on the bleeding edge of all this stuff. But the reality is we live in a very divided time. There is literal political violence. People are actually being killed. And so this kind of stuff is crazy to me. So from a values perspective, no, this kid shouldn't be coming to America. That, like, this is not, from an America standpoint, what we stand for. Do I think that he should have been kicked off Instagram? No, I don't. If you want to block that post, love it. That post is trash. But then saying, this person can never speak again, that is dumb to me. You. If you have a sentence that violates the free speech laws, then you address that sentence. You don't say, this person can never speak again. Unless you're saying the thing they did means that they have to get put in prison.
- [92:54]
Drew
Cool.
- [92:54]
Tom Bilyeu
Then the consequences are what the consequences are. But taking them off of Instagram, full stop dumb. When we're debanking people for doing things that we don't like politically dumb. Yeah, I think that kind of thing is absolutely bananas. So I think the following statement is true. I might, upon further reflection, take it back, but I don't think so. If somebody murders somebody, it doesn't mean that you should debank them. They should go to prison. But if that person didn't violate the laws of the bank, like, I don't understand why they get debanked. So that, to me is just super bizarre. People should be punished for the crimes they commit, but there shouldn't be, like this really huge echo. Like, there's going to be enough cultural backlash, like you were saying with Diddy. There'll be enough cultural backlash that if he got convicted of a crime, you should go to jail for the crime that he was convicted of. But there shouldn't be this whole host of other, like, official sanctions against him. That's weird.
- [93:51]
Drew
Bob Villain released a statement late last night. Not the first, not the last. Today, a good many people will have you believe a punk ban is the number one threat to world peace. Last week it was a Palestinian pressure group. The week before it was another ban. We are not for the death of Jews, Arabs, or any other race or group.
- [94:07]
Tom Bilyeu
Did you say Arabs?
- [94:09]
Drew
Arabs, Arabs.
- [94:11]
Tom Bilyeu
I'm pretty sure you're getting canceled now.
- [94:13]
Drew
Oh, sorry.
- [94:14]
Tom Bilyeu
I'm pretty sure, right?
- [94:15]
Drew
I grew up of people. We are on for dismantling of a violent military machine. A machine whose own soldiers were told to use unnecessary lethal force against innocent civilians waiting for aid. A machine that has destroyed much of Gaza. We, like those in the spotlight before us, are not the story. We are a distraction from the story. And whatever sanctions we receive will be a distraction. The government doesn't want us to ask why they remain silent in the face of this atrocity, to ask why they aren't doing more to stop the killing, to feed the starving. The more they talk about Bob Villain, the less time they spend answering for their criminal inaction. We are being targeted for speaking up. We are not the first, we will not be the last. And if you ever care for the sanctity of human life and freedom of speech, we urge you to speak up. To free Palestine.
- [94:56]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, free Palestine. Cool. Kill. The IDF is where the problem begins. So, yeah, anyway, this. This is the tug of war that you Play with your artists, the artists in society. You want them pushing the boundaries and all that, but pushing the boundaries is about accepting the consequences of the boundary that you pushed. So there he is, got some consequences. And that's what makes this valid, essentially. But yeah, I think bad mojo to call for the killing of anybody.
- [95:26]
Chat Participant / Viewer
Several people in chat are disagreeing with you saying, well, I guess free speech laws are dead. I guess.
- [95:33]
Tom Bilyeu
What, what it is already in the Supreme Court precedent that you can't do an assignment for violence. So if people are saying, tom, this is an incitement for violence because the IDF is an amorphous blob and there's no way that's crazy. Okay, fair enough. Let the let it go to the Supreme Court and let's find out. But I really believe the next 10 years are going to be us battling for what are the value system that we're willing to stand up for. And yeah, so I'm all for not letting somebody into the country that is calling for the death of somebody else. And I would completely understand if another country didn't like something I said or somebody else said or whatever. Like, by the way, I have self assumed that going to China would be a terrible idea for me. I'm not mad at China about that. It's like, you got a guy over here popping off saying, hey, we gotta be careful, gotta watch out for China. Like, I can only say that so many times before they're like, yeah, fuck this kid. I'm not mad about that. They've gotta stand up for China. They don't have to worry about some podcaster in America. Fuck him. So, yeah, certainly not from a double standard perspective. Not that you can disagree though, love. Yay.
- [96:42]
Chat Participant / Viewer
So just to stress test that if the chant was changed from death to the IDF to stop the idf, that doesn't cross the line for you?
- [96:50]
Tom Bilyeu
Not at all. Not even slightly. Word. Let's go with you. Like, people should speak up for the values that they believe in 1000%. Now it becomes, is that a value that I want in my country? That becomes the question that we have to ask. But for my money, if he said, stop the idf, be like, cool. I don't have any beef with that. It's a very measured, reasonable stance to take. I'm here for it. I'm sure there are plenty of Jewish people that are like, stop the idf. I'm sure there are people in Israel that are like, stop the idf. So, yeah, that doesn't even begin to make my radar. If people freaked out about somebody Saying stop the idf. I'd be like, what's happening right now? So yeah, people over trust their own opinion. So yeah,
- [97:38]
Drew
there is like a slippery slope to that. And this is free speech. Yes. The you say something we don't like, there are going to be consequences.
- [97:45]
Tom Bilyeu
Yep.
- [97:46]
Drew
Brutus Lugo throws it in the chat. Trump even announced that he can possibly talk about revoking citizen citizenship from nationalized citizens if they commit a crime or if they do something. Committed crime, I feel like is something
- [97:59]
Tom Bilyeu
commit a crime and of course somebody's gonna come after you.
- [98:03]
Drew
So like if somebody's been in the country for 10 years and they got pulled over for drug.
- [98:06]
Tom Bilyeu
Oh, should they get deported?
- [98:08]
Drew
Yeah, they're revoked. Their citizenship will be revoked.
- [98:10]
Tom Bilyeu
Oh, oh, oh, sorry, I thought you were selling free speech. If you're a citizen, from where I'm sitting, you're a citizen.
- [98:16]
Drew
So nationalized citizens.
- [98:18]
Tom Bilyeu
Well that's. Now that's gonna be a big debate. Okay, so where do I come down in that? If you were born here and you, if you were born here, to me this is very easy. If you were born here, you're here simple as citizen. Welcome. Love you.
- [98:33]
Drew
If moving forward citizenship as well, like,
- [98:36]
Tom Bilyeu
yeah, a thousand percent, your parents are
- [98:37]
Drew
immigrants, but you were born here, you're good.
- [98:39]
Tom Bilyeu
A thousand percent. Copy Tom Bily's take. Yeah, if the. Let's say that the Supreme Court decides that birthright citizenship no longer applies. Like, hey, we're going to update our precedent on this, I'd want to see that moving forward. I would not want to see that moving backwards. And yes, that means that a whole bunch of people that came over in the last four years, open borders. There's going to be tens of thousands of people that had kids, maybe hundreds of it is what it is from a. Like, I'm all for, man. If you've been here five or 10 years and you've been law abiding and you've been working and you've been paying taxes, like, I'm here for it. Give them some path. Even if you make them pay a penalty or whatever, give them some path. But in terms of all the people that came over, flooding over the border in the last four years, yes, I'm here for deportations is the right place to draw the line. Five years is the right place to draw the line. Ten years, I don't know, let people debate about that. I'm spending a lot of time thinking about it. But there is like a point at which it's like, bro, you've been Here for a minute. You've been doing good things, you're contributing to the society. I'm here for it. But we do need to be like black and white about moving forward. What are the values that we want to actively import into America? That's going to be the question.
- [99:52]
Drew
Yeah. I think America is being really trigger sensitive because of what's happening in Britain and like what we see internationally. But I think fundamentally America is not going through that same like, erratification. I think that college ratification.
- [100:11]
Tom Bilyeu
What do you mean?
- [100:12]
Drew
Of like our cultures in the same way, for example, because we're not being
- [100:16]
Tom Bilyeu
torn apart as much.
- [100:17]
Drew
Yeah. When people see Britain and they see the street filled with Muslims outside, we're like, see, they're evading Britain. This is why Britain can't live.
- [100:26]
Tom Bilyeu
Some are. So just to be clear, as I talk about this more and more, I am going to need people to understand. I don't care what religion somebody is. I don't care what they look like, for sure. I don't care what country they were born in. What I care about is what values do you have? So if you come here and you're like, man, everybody should be able to practice their own religion. I'm not trying to put my religion on somebody, man. There should be a separation of church and state. I don't want to see my religion find its way into the laws of this country, man. I believe in freedom. I believe in free speech. I believe in capitalism, dude. I'm here for it. Literally it. I couldn't care less what religion you are, blah, blah, blah. If on the other hand, you're like, my religion should be baked into the laws. Now we got a problem if you are violent. Got a problem with it. We got enough of that homegrown, don't need more of it. So if you are a socialist or a communist, not here for that. Very aggressively so, yeah, those are not things I would want to see us import, that is for sure.
- [101:37]
Drew
Yeah, I just, I don't. I feel like America has been able to handle our wave of immigrants. We've been having immigration since the inception of the country. I think immigration is one of the things that make America great. Because in who. I think, I think it was Reagan who said that you can go to Germany, you can never, you'll never be a German, you go to Japan, Japan, you'll never be Japan. But America's the only place you go to America and you could become an American.
- [102:02]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, I love that.
- [102:03]
Drew
So.
- [102:03]
Tom Bilyeu
But now does American mean something? And if it does mean Something, what does it mean to be an American, to simply have a citizenship or to adopt a culture? And if to adopt a culture, then are you adopting or what culture are you adopting? And I'm saying America has a culture. It is a knowable, articulatable culture. And even though I'm not Christian, it's built on the back of a Judeo Christian ethic, a puritanic work ethic, capitalist society, freedom, freedom of speech, private property, like those are all separation of church and state, like those are all the things that make up America. Now if you're a foreign born American, I literally do not care what you look like. That does not matter to me in the fucking slightest. I don't care where you were born. You could be a foreign born American from Mogadishu, you could be a foreign born American from Australia, you could be a foreign born American from France, from Germany, Germany, from Japan, China, whatever. Like if we share those core values, I'm here for it love the most. But I think Thomas Soule is right. There is nothing that has been put forward as a true statement with absolutely no backing evidence more aggressively than the idea that diversity is our greatest strength. Diversity is the thing that we overcome. And if that diversity is the, the hormetic stress that we become stronger by overcoming, I'm open to that. But hormesis is the idea that you took some damage, you tore the muscle a little bit, it just happened to grow back stronger. But to act like diversity isn't problematic I think is crazy town. Diversity creates stress, diversity creates friction. Now I'm saying that when you share core values and then you have that friction at a much more surface level, that's awesome because now you get people challenging each other, you get dynamic tension between the opposing forces. That is awesome. But when you have diversity at core values, you are in fucking trouble. And I don't think people are making the distinction between those two things. And it is going to be a problem. And part of the reason I think that we've done so well with immigration is I think the following statement is true in the last 50 years for sure. Please fact check me. In the last 50 years, I think the thing that we have imported at just the most rapid rate you can import something is people from South America who are just so likely to be Catholic. And so now again, Judeo Christian ethic. Cool, nice and easy assimilate, no problem. But and by the way, for a long time it really felt like the people were coming, they were coming for opportunity. So people are coming for Opportunity. They're down for private property, freedom of speech, capitalism, and they can seamlessly live with people that have a Judeo Christian ethic, as I consider myself certainly to be able to do. Yay. If they can't, you're gonna have a problem. People kill over values, Drew. They kill. They murder people over values.
- [105:06]
Drew
I understand what you're saying, but that's not what's happening. And that's the, that's my beef.
- [105:12]
Tom Bilyeu
That's not what's happening in the U.S. yeah.
- [105:14]
Drew
Because right now we're not going after the people that don't have differing values. We're not even going after criminals. We're going after the low hanging fruit.
- [105:19]
Tom Bilyeu
So you're talking about deportation?
- [105:20]
Drew
Yeah, yeah. And the people that are coming in immigration, even like British legal shouted out the 500k Haitians that just lost their immigrant status, like what? That means those 500k, they didn't go over the border, they didn't sneak by Mexico, they didn't, they didn't climb a ravine. Those people got on airplanes, came here with visas. So it's one of those things that, like whether it was Biden four years ago, whatever, like that, there was a posse that said, hey, you guys can come here, we're welcome. As long as you have family here, you have to live with a family, somebody else will take care of you. This is not a government handout subsidy type thing. Like, you literally have to have somebody in America that can vouch for you, that has a home that you can live in, that you'll stay there for six months, you'll have to get a job with an eight. There were all these stipulations. These people sold property and stuff, moved to America, did all these things that they were supposed to do in this system that was established somehow with the rhetoric that happened over the last election, it now became, anybody that came into this country is now a criminal, illegal, rapist. And a lot of people that have been doing the right things that are registered on the system, they now got their status revoked, they're now getting punished and chased out where the people that are the criminals, rapists and things like that, who don't have official jobs, but who have came in here legally, we still haven't even isolated and got them. So I think the people that have done things the right way are now being penalized the most versus the people that might not have done the things that are off the book, that have snuck across. So where Trump is getting wind, like, yeah, I'm deporting all these people look at me, the people that I'm sending over, like you're not sending over the people that you thought were the threat. You're sending over the people that for the last 5.7x amount of years have been registered property, did all the things that were right. So I just think the implementation of these immigration policies is not what's actually happening, even though the rhetoric might say something differently.
- [107:00]
Tom Bilyeu
All right, everybody, we'll see you tomorrow.
- [107:01]
Drew
Peace.
- [107:01]
Tom Bilyeu
Have a great one. Later.
- [107:03]
Commercial Narrator 2
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Tom Bilyeu
explorer Platinum terms apply when you manage
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