← Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
The Sweden Socialists Point To Doesn't Exist — It Collapsed In 1990 | Tom Deepdive
00:33:26
Tom Bilyeu dives into the real economic lessons from Sweden’s failed socialist experiment, debunking modern myths about the Nordic model while revealing what America must learn to avoid economic disaster.
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On March 3 of 1976, a tabloid hit Swedish newsstands with a fairy tale in it about tax. It was a thinly veiled autobiography that told the story of the Pippi Longstocking author whose success actually left her impoverished. After the sweetest progressive tax system saddled her with a 102% tax bill, she was taxed more than she earned. The story so powerfully captured the absurdity of what the Swedish welfare state had become that in the next election, voters fired the Social Democrat government for the first time in over 40 years. Sadly, however, even with a new government, nothing structural was changed and the country went right back to the Social Democrats in 1982. The old bosses kept running the same doomed socialist model for another 15 years until the banking system finally just collapsed. It was a truly brutal period for Sweden that the modern socialist movement in America either doesn't know about or doesn't want you to know about. In 1990, Sweden, the country that many people the world over hold up as an example of how to do cradle to grave socialism, actually abandoned socialism after bad policies led to economic cardiac arrest and threw the country into total disarray. Their kleptocratic tax system led to a GDP drop of 5%, a quintupling of unemployment in just three years, and their currency rapidly lost a third of its value. Sweden had become so focused on redistributing wealth, they forgot that redistribution is not the miracle, wealth creation is the miracle, and bad policies will kill an economic engine fast. And now America, once the home of the world's greatest free market economy, is moving more and more towards a socialist model that is guaranteed to break our economic engine. So in this video, I'm going to prove that every single policy lever that aoc, Bernie Mamdani and the DSA are trying to pull the very country they hold up as an example of effective policy, Sweden has already tested and decided to pull in the exact opposite direction. In four parts we'll look at how excessive redistribution and the math of scale guarantees the decline of an economy. And what the US must learn before it's too late. Don't skip part three. That one's going to blow your mind. Welcome to part one. The real Sweden how they killed the Nordic model got rich. In 1970, Sweden was the fourth richest country on earth. By 1993 it had collapsed to 13th. The model the DSA wants America to copy did not make Sweden rich. It made Sweden poorer than Italy. The founder of IKEA fled Sweden in 1973. The founder of Tetrapac fled as well. As did the founder of H and M. By the early 80s, Sweden's tax policy had become so onerous that that it had driven out the very entrepreneurs who were driving the country's productivity, setting them up for the collapse in 93. Seeing the absurdity of what was happening, Kel Olaf felt Sweden's Social Democrat finance minister tried unsuccessfully to stop everything from going off the rails. But nobody would listen. After the inevitable implosion in the 90s, he famously said what we believed in as young socialists simply turned out to be impossible in practice. He further noted that and I quote, the whole thing with democratic socialism was absolutely impossible. It just didn't work. There was no other way to go than market reform. Now, thankfully, that's exactly what Sweden did. They abandoned the so called Nordic model of the ever growing cradle to grave welfare state. And today their corporate tax rate is lower than than the United States. Their social spending is closer to American levels than the Nordic levels. Their government debt is just 35% of GDP versus a European average that's closer to 90%. And the European Commission projects that Sweden will grow by 2.6% in 2026 while Germany and France have stagnated. But the road to fiscal discipline and a growing economy was not an easy one. It required what was arguably the most aggressive series of market reforms of the late 20th century. Sweden abolished the wealth tax, they abolished the inheritance tax. They cut the corporate tax rate from 52% down to 20.6% and started privatizing many of the state owned entities, including state owned banks, telecoms and energy companies. All all of them were privatized. Full school choice was introduced in 92 where public money would follow the student so the schools would have to compete based on merit and the unions couldn't gain control via political means. And about half of Sweden's primary care clinics are privately owned. By privatizing industries, forcing them to compete and allowing entrepreneurs to get wealthy, the incentive structure returned to the business landscape and innovation began to gush out of Sweden. Spotify, Klarna, Minecraft, Candy Crush, Skype. Sweden produced more than 500 IPOs in the decade ending in 2024. That's more than Germany, France, the Netherlands and Spain combined. And despite all of their success coming from an embrace of the free market, now Mamdani and the DSA are using them as an example for why we should further abandon the the free market and bring more socialism to America. It's maddening. Even the Nordic countries, who can see that their names are being invoked to propagate a lie, are speaking up. The Prime Minister of Denmark has said directly to US lawmakers that, and I quote, I know that some people in the US associate the Nordic model with some sort of socialism. Therefore, I would like to make one thing clear. Denmark is far from a socialist planned economy. Denmark is a market economy. And when Bernie Sanders launched his bid for President in 2019, the former Prime Minister of Sweden said, and again I quote, Bernie Sanders was lucky to be able to get to the Soviet Union in 1988 and praise all of its stunning socialist achievements before the entire system and empire collapsed under the weight of its own spectacular failures. Now meanwhile, Mamdani is promising to break the free market here in the US with rent freezes, free buses, subsidized city owned grocery stores, a $30 minimum wage, universal healthcare and more. As if he is completely blind to the failed history of socialism globally. So let me explain it. Welcome to part two, the Power Law of why Socialism Always Fails at scale in 2023, the top 1% of American earners paid 38.4% of all federal income tax. The top 10% paid 70.5%. The bottom 50%, 76 million Americans paid just 3.3%. Economic productivity does not follow a normal distribution. It follows a power law. A small fraction of people create most of the innovations that allow for the companies that create all of the economic value in a society. The risk taking founders, inventors and operators that create, build and employ without them there just Isn't any tax revenue to begin with? The job of every healthy society is to create an environment where those kind of people can thrive and create opportunity without the policies allowing them to become toxic. That's the path to prosperity. Ayn Rand captured the idea in her book Atlas Shrugged. Throughout the centuries, there were men who took first steps down new roads, armed with nothing but their own vision. The first motor was considered foolish. The airplane was considered impossible. The power loom was considered vicious. Anesthesia considered sinful. But the men of unborrowed vision went ahead. They fought, they suffered, and they paid. But they won. What I'm trying to get across is that all of us benefit from the crazy people who bet their entire lives on creating things of economic value. Listen, most of them fail. Most of the people who try to do something valuable crash and burn. Most people who think they can change the world really are just delusional. But it's impossible to tell at the beginning who's the fool and who's the true visionary. So we have to create a landscape that allows anyone who believes they've got something to try. But the risk has to be worth it. That's where money comes in. Once you realize that money is simply the mechanism by which, in a free market, we all get to say how valuable what someone is doing with their time is to other people. We're a social species, and in a healthy economy, we reward others with our hard earned money for contributing to the group. If we think what they're doing with their time is valuable, then we'll pay them. And if we don't, we won't. But there's no way to control that from the top down. Everyone values things differently. Everyone wants different things. Everyone that creates has different interests and ideas of what they want to build. Inventors have different insights. We all have different talents and abilities. It might not be fair, but that's how God, or the creator of the simulation or whatever you believe has decided to make it. So in a free market, we let people build what they want to build, and others buy what they want to buy and at a price that they think is fair. And if people don't see a price that they like or anything that they want to buy, then they keep their money and the person trying goes out of business. And over time, we all benefit. But we have to create that environment. The problems arise when you try to control things from the top down. When the government tells people what they should make, how much they should pay, or how much of their money that they get to Keep. When you do that, you create distortions. The government might incentivize the wrong thing or make the reward for something so small that no one builds it. There are just way too many variables to control everything from the top down. But because very few people are truly gifted at creating value, when you let the free market run, it is inevitable that inequality arises because our skills and interests are unequal. But nonetheless, the free market, as history proves, is the only path to prosperity besides a power law. Distribution appears to be universal, even in nature. It's just how the matrix is coded, to use my language. Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto noticed this uneven distribution back in 1896. 20% of Italians owned 80% of the land. But strangely, the same ratio held for pea pods in his garden, for incomes in other countries, and for nearly every productive system he could measure, natural or man made. We now call this law the 8020 rule. Modern data confirms it exists everywhere. Patent output, scientific citations, software developer productivity. It is literally everywhere. Socialists refuse to accept this, though, much to my dismay. And they do massive economic harm by trying to stop this natural law from playing out. They think wealth creation should be more of a flat curve, and that wealth accumulation at the top is somehow a sign of a crime or some injustice, and not simply a reflection of natural power law distributions. And so they tax. The more you make, the more they tax. But as Sweden learned the hard way, you can't tax wealth that was never generated. And if you tax too much, you eventually break the incentive system that encourages people to take the big risks that lead to the innovations that generate value and wealth. And once people stop trying to build great things, the entire engine of prosperity stalls and there's no longer enough wealth to support the welfare system. So if you want a solid social safety net, you have to understand that every welfare state is ultimately just a ratio. Net contributors over net recipients. When the ratio is healthy, the system runs. When there are too many recipients and not enough contributors, the system collapses every time. And the ratio gets worse with scale, not better. In a small, high trust country, almost everyone contributes. But in a large, diverse country, where not everyone shares the same values or a sense of obligation to contribute, the dependency ratio reliably breaks. That's why no country over 100 million people has ever been able to sustain low inequality, a large welfare state, and meaningful GDP growth. Taking a short break. But there's more impact theory after. Stay tuned. Let's talk about the worst investment most guys make on repeat cheap clothes. You buy them, they look fine. But six months later they're pilling, they shrinking or just falling apart. So you replace them. 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More ounces stacking every single month, compounding in one of the only assets that can't be printed, inflated or debased. And storage and insurance are included, by the way, so hidden fees don't eat your yield. The average person is passively absorbing inflation. This is how you compound your way out of it. Click the link in the show notes or visit monetary metals.com impact to learn more. This is a paid advertisement. All right, thanks for sticking with us. Let's jump right back in. To sustain a large welfare state, you need a shared value system that intrinsically restricts abuse. But as populations grow, abuse accumulates, taxes grow to cover the gap, the incentive system breaks and the GDP grinds to a halt. Nobody learned this lesson more brutally than China. Between 1958 and 1962, Mao Zedong's great Leap Forward tried to abolish private incentive and force equal outcomes through violence. The result was the worst peacetime famine in human history. An estimated 45 million people dead while the regime exported grain. And in a grotesque attempt to trick everyone into believing that the system was actually working when it very much was not, in 1978, Deng Xiaoping finally reversed the idiotic policies of Mao. Markets were reintroduced, private enterprises were legalized, and special economic zones were created to jumpstart the prosperity engine. The resulting inequality was severe, but the wealth creation was stiff, staggering, and it pulled hundreds of millions of people out of poverty over the next four decades. China's embrace of free market capitalism with Chinese characteristics proved to be the largest poverty reduction event in human history. While they still have a massive amount of state control, they learned that you cannot distribute wealth that was never generated in the first place. The hard reality that we all have to face is that if you have a large population, you cannot have high growth, low inequality and a large welfare state. You can have two of the three, but not all three. Don't believe me? Let's look at every country with a population over 100 million people. There are 16 countries on the planet with a population over 100 million. The first group is countries with small welfare states and meaningful growth. That's India, China, which also has massive inequality. As we discussed. Indonesia, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Philippines, Vietnam and Egypt. Every one of them has a welfare state a fraction the size of what the DSA wants to build here in America. The second group is the countries with light welfare and weak Pakistan, Nigeria, Mexico, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Russia. All struggling for their own reasons. Instability, war, corruption, demographics, etc. And none of them are running anything resembling Nordic levels of welfare. That leaves three countries that do have something approaching Nordic levels of Brazil, Japan and the US. Oh, the irony that the US actually spends around 22% of GDP on welfare, which is roughly Nordic levels, which are about 24%. But our growth is only about 2%. And the Gini coefficient for our income inequality is a brutal 42, which is among the highest in the developed world. We have a burdensome welfare state and at least some growth, but our Inequality is gnarly. And to make matters worse, the US funds the welfare state by borrowing $1.8 trillion every year. And our growth is actually largely debt financed consumption made possible by the fact that we're the world's reserve currency. Without that, it wouldn't work. And now the DSA wants to tax its way to low inequality without first fixing the engine of prosperity which is already on life support here in the US under the weight of our massive deficits and reckless spending. The data shows for a country of our size, going even farther down the socialism route would be a disaster. Of the 16 countries, over 100 million people, exactly zero are running a generous welfare state, are growing meaningfully and maintaining low inequality. The power law, distribution math just doesn't allow it. America doesn't have a redistribution debate ahead of it. We're already running nearly $2 trillion a year in deficit spending. Our spending habits are completely reckless, including our massive welfare state. So if we want to redistribute more wealth, we are going to have to figure out how to first generate more wealth. But before we can solve that problem, we have to understand exactly how things break under the weight of socialism. Welcome to part three, how every bloated welfare state eventually collapses. On January 30, 1976, two plainclothes police officers stormed into Stockholm's Royal Dramatic Theater and arrested famous Swedish filmmaker Ingmar Bergman in front of his cast. The charge? Tax evasion. Bergmann suffered a nervous breakdown and had to be hospitalized. Two months later, the charges were dropped. He had never committed a crime. The prosecutor admitted that the charges were like charging a man with stealing his own car. But the damage was done. Bergman fled Sweden. Swedish newspapers celebrated his departure, by the way, with headlines like go Bergman. We won't miss you. He lived in exile for eight years. That's the kind of thing that happens when people champion bigger and bigger government. Bureaucrats grow so powerful they become convinced that your money is rightfully theirs. They act as if success itself is theft. The state stops being a servant to the people and it becomes a predator. There is far more resentment and a desire to confiscate money hiding in the hearts of socialists than most people either realize or want to admit. And if you think all of that is just an ancient story and something that only happens in some far off land, look at what just happened in New York in 2022. Governor Kathy Hochul stood at a campaign rally and addressed New Yorkers who didn't share her party's politics. Her exact words, just jump on a Bus and head down to Florida where you belong, okay, get out of town. Get out of town. Because you don't. You don't represent our values. You are not New Yorkers. So they left. Net taxpayer migration out of New York accelerated through 23, 24, and 25. By the time Mom Donny won the mayor's race, promising even higher taxes and more confiscation, the exodus had become a stampede. And that's why In March of 26, the same Kathy Hochul stood at a Politico summit in Albany and backtracked on her previous idiotic statements, saying, I need people who are high net worth to support the generous social programs that we want to have in our state. But maybe the first step should be go down to Palm beach and see if we can bring back home because our tax base has been eroded. When the money is flowing, bureaucrats get confused. They forget that creating value and generating wealth is extremely difficult. They think somehow that they have a right to other people's money, as much of it as they want. They forget that taxation is a delicate balance. Too little and people go unprotected. Too much and everything falls apart. Every overgrown welfare state is incentivized to keep growing. But rather than do it through economic growth, which would bring inequality, they do it through confiscation via taxation, which eventually brings ruination. What Sweden learned the hard way back in the 90s, and what the DSA is trying to ignore right now, is that when a government tries to eliminate inequality via redistribution and promises more freebies than its productive economy can sustainably pay for, it only has three tax harder, borrow more, and print money. And each of those three options terminates in a dead end. If you overtax producers leave and your tax base declines, you ironically end up with less tax revenue the harder you try to tax people. This is the wall that Sweden ran into and why the autobiographical fairy tale we started this piece with actually ends up with a little old lady threatening to beg for money not to live, but to buy a crowbar to steal her money back from the government. After France introduced their wealth tax, an estimated 42,000 millionaires left the country, taking roughly 200 billion euros of capital with them. So guess what? They abolished the wealth tax in 2017 because it was costing France more in lost revenue than than it was bringing in. Of the 12 OECD countries that had wealth taxes in 1990, only three still have them today. Your second option is to borrow until lenders quit lending. This is the US's current strategy. And if we don't change course, we will get burned. Interest payments on our national debt is already over $1 trillion, and it just keeps growing. And as a reminder, that's just the interest. Option three is to print money until the currency becomes worthless. This is the worst option, but many, many countries have taken it. Venezuela, Weimar, Germany, Argentina before Milei, Zimbabwe, and more. Every time a political system cannot tax enough and can't borrow enough, the central bank starts printing money, which is the same as just trying to pretend that you have enough money. Very quickly people realize that you're just pretending it does not work. The US dollar has already lost 25% of its purchasing power just since 2020. So we will get burned if we insist on going down this path. All of that is what makes the DSA plan to copy the failed Nordic model so uniquely dangerous. It will accelerate our use of these three terrible options simultaneously. Higher marginal tax rates, accelerate option one. Expanded welfare programs, deepen the deficit and accelerate option two. And the deficit forces the Fed to print money, which accelerates option 3. Every single Mamdani policy makes every single failure mode worse. And for anyone who cares about helping the middle and working classes, here's an important when the system fails, the rich have already moved their wealth out of the country into hard assets or into other currencies. It's the middle class and the working poor that will be left holding the bag because they hold their savings in doll, which is the very thing that's getting destroyed. Sweden only survived their tough economic times because they finally snapped out of the socialist fever dream and stopped doing dumb things. Now it's time for America to realize that we're already way down the path of socialism. We stopped being a free market economy a long time ago. It is the fact that we don't even recognize that we have a gigantic welfare state that makes socialism look like the answer to our socialism. When in reality, we have to learn from Sweden. The actual Sweden, not the mythical Sweden in the minds of Mamdani, aoc, Bernie and the dsa. So welcome to Part four, the path Forward. How America avoids Sweden's mistakes. Here's a stat that should make every American angry. The federal government loses between 300 and $600 billion every year to fraud and improper payments. It could be more. That's 10% of federal spending stolen, wasted or paid to people who shouldn't be receiving it. Whatever our problems are as a country, we're not running short on redistribution. We're drowning in it. And yet the level of inequality in America is toxic. People that say that our economy is broken, they are right. People that say that it's rigged, they are right. People that say that it is weaponized against the middle and working class, they are right. And on top of all of that, our healthcare is a mess and our staggering debt is going to break the engine of prosperity that we do have. But the solution that's being put forward is nonsensical. We spend Nordic levels of money on our social safety nets already, but we don't get Nordic results. Our inequality isn't even being driven by capitalism at this point. The reason that our economy has gone from the kind of inequality that creates incentives to the kind of inequality that causes revolutions is because of deficit spending and money printing, which we have to do because we keep promising more free things. Taxing the rich will not help for the reasons that we've already discussed. Only fiscal discipline can save us now. If we don't do that first, nothing else we do will matter. If America wants to actually fix its problems, there are four things we have to get right. First, we have to accept that some inequality is the price of growth and to stop being afraid of normal inequality. Toxic inequality is a problem, but it's a problem for different reasons. Debt money printing that causes the toxic inequality. A small fraction of people create the most value in any economy. That is just how it is. If you hate that, you have to take it up with God. We all have uneven talents and money is your reward for delivering more value with your time. That's just the way it works. Governments should make sure that the playing field is fair. That's critically important. But after that, they have to get out of the way. We are never going to have equal outcomes. Any government that tries to artificially flatten disparate outcomes by force will find themselves somewhere on the spectrum from 1990s Sweden to Mao's China. Admittedly, Sweden is a lot better, but they're both degrees of bad. Second, we've got to fix the debt before we try to fix anything else. The single most pro worker policy America could adopt is a stable currency that requires balanced budgets and paying down the $38 trillion in debt and stopping the Fed from printing money and using inflation as a hidden tax to make good on every new round of political promises. The middle class does not need more free stuff. They need freedom from resentful bureaucrats that break everything they touch by deficit spending and then taxing through inflation. Third, we have to deal with the fact that redistribution without shared values creates a parasitic system that you cannot tax your way out of a welfare state requires a culture where people only take what they absolutely need and they contribute whenever they can. Sweden learned this the hard way. The fiscal cost of their open borders era ran somewhere between 1% and 3% of GDP every year, depending on whose study you trust. Foreign born unemployment runs three times the native rate. And as of January 2026, Sweden is now offering migrants more than $30,000 per adult to voluntarily leave. That's how much they cost the country. They would rather pay to have them leave than have them stay. The country's own government has publicly admitted that extensive immigration in recent years has caused major strains on our society. No matter how much they embrace the free market, if they let in a horde of people that don't share their values and instead take advantage of the social safety net, the system will break. It's just math. The same is true for America. If we add unchecked low skill immigration to America's already fraud prone welfare system, we're just going to accelerate the same fiscal strain that Sweden is facing. Fourth, we have to stop trying to copy a country that doesn't actually exist. The Sweden the DSA points to died in 1990 when their system collapsed under its own weight. What replaced it? Cut its corporate tax below ours, abolished its wealth tax, privatized its schools, opened healthcare to private competition, and has no statutory minimum wage at all. That's obviously not the lesson the DSA wants us to learn from Sweden. But that's the real lesson from Sweden. What they actually did looks more like a Reagan era reform package. Now, no doubt they have a very robust social safety net, but they've earned it through fiscal discipline and a robust economy. So here's what it all comes down to. Sweden taught the world that you can build a generous welfare state, but only if you let capitalism run aggressively underneath it. The moment you take the prosperity engine for granted, the engine stops running. And once it stops, you have nothing left to redistribute. America is at a fork in the road. If we don't learn the four lessons we just walked through, our economy will break and there will be neither a safety net nor prosperity. You don't cure an already ailing economy with more socialism. Despite what Mamdani and the DSA will try to tell you. Sweden and many others have already proven that the math does not work. The math doesn't care how good a policy feels or how wonderful it looks on paper. The engine of prosperity runs on a very narrow band. It is fragile and it is easy to break. To paraphrase Thomas Sowell Poverty needs no explanation at all. It happens automatically. It's wealth that requires an explanation. Alright, that's it for today's episode. If you got value out of this, it would mean the world to me if you would go give us a five star rating. It helps more than you know. All right, thank you and until next time, my friends. Be legendary. Take care. Peace. Let's talk about a pattern that is guaranteed to be killing your progress. You know what you need to do? You need consistent nutrition. We all do. You need vitamins, probiotics, greens. We all know that we should be doing more of it. When your morning gets chaotic, you skip it. When you travel, you skip it. When your routine breaks, everything tends to break. And that inconsistency compounds against you every single day. AG1 is designed to solve the execution problem. One scoop 8 ounces of water and you're done. 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