Podcast Summary:

Podcast: Tom Bilyeu’s Impact Theory
Episode: This Is How New York Will Collapse | Tom Bilyeu Show LIVE Clips
Date: November 1, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the political and economic future of New York City, centering on the possible mayoral rise of Zoran Mamdani, his socialist-leaning policies, and the broader consequences of regulation-heavy governance. Using the current housing crisis and economic instability as focal points, Tom Bilyeu and his guest debate whether socialist economics and rent control policies will alleviate or exacerbate the city’s problems. The conversation covers free public services, housing affordability, capital flight, rent control controversies, and the market’s natural response to regulation.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The 'Villain' in New York’s Political Future (01:22–04:45)

• Zoran Mamdani is discussed as a leading candidate for New York’s next mayor.

• Debater 2 expresses concern over Mamdani’s policies, labeling him ideologically driven, and equates his agenda with Marxism/socialism, which they argue is the real “supervillain” threatening New York’s stability.

• The conversation cautions that well-intentioned free public services (like buses) come with hidden costs and can lead to unforeseen economic strain.

  • Quote:

    “The supervillain is Marxism itself, Socialism itself. When you look at the price of gold right now...it’s saying, bro, you’re in real trouble.”
    — Debater 2 [01:39]

  • Quote:

    “Everything that is wrong with the economy right now is based on debt, money printing. Mamdani is going to make that worse. The buses are never going to be free. Nothing is ever going to be free. Everything is going to be paid for by somebody.”
    — Debater 2 [01:46]

2. Rent Control and Housing Crisis (04:45–09:24)

• Debater 2 draws on historical examples of rent control in New York (1960s–80s), arguing it led to property neglect, arson, and a shrinking incentive for entrepreneurial investment in housing.

• Key Analogy:
  Compares restricting apartment rent to artificially limiting shoe prices, leading to a drop in supply and quality.

• Rent freezes are criticized as counterproductive, ultimately punishing small landlords and leading to disrepair and financial desperation.

  • Quote:

    “What ends up happening is people go, wait a second. If at those rents I can’t afford to repair the plumbing, for instance, so they don’t. And they tell you, wrap a towel around it.”
    — Debater 2 [05:26]

  • Historical Note:

    “A quarter of all the buildings that burned in the Bronx were due to arson because it was cheaper to burn the building and collect the insurance money than it was to try to upkeep it.”
    — Debater 2 [05:35]

• The conversation highlights how housing is an entrepreneurial endeavor, not a charitable activity, and excessive regulation erodes the incentives aligned with property upkeep.

3. Incentives, Regulation, and the Free Market (06:03–11:42)

• Debater 1 vs. Debater 2: Debater 1 pushes back, wondering if the failure is with the individuals (arsonists/landlords) and not policy. Debater 2 argues the policy itself creates perverse incentives.

  • Quote:

    “You should also recognize that the government put them in that position.”
    — Debater 2 [06:12]

• Personal Example:
  Debater 2 offers an example of a retiree whose rental income plan is destroyed by rent caps, highlighting the unintended personal consequences of such regulation.

• Debate on Housing Supply:
  The solution to affordability, Debater 2 insists, is to make more housing by deregulating, allowing upbuilding, and placing taxes or ownership restrictions rather than blanket rent controls.

  • Quote:

    “So you know the way to make housing more affordable? To make more housing.”
    — Debater 2 [08:03]

4. Values Clash: Who Should Live Where? (09:24–12:01)

• Debater 1 raises the equity question — what about native New Yorkers being priced out?

• Debater 2 responds with market pragmatism: not everyone can afford every neighborhood; that’s a fact of supply and demand.

  • Quote:

    “Yes, of course you don’t have a right to live in whatever neighborhood you want to live in.”
    — Debater 2 [08:33]

  • Memorable Exchange:

    • “Now your beef is, I don’t want there to be places like Beverly Hills that poor people, they just can’t...”
      — Debater 2 [08:17]
    • “That’s all of Manhattan. Fine. So you’re saying it’s fine that they can’t afford it?”
      — Debater 1 [08:22]
    • “Yes, of course I’m saying it’s fine they can’t afford it.”
      — Debater 2 [08:29]

• The guest suggests smart, limited regulation (like taxes on multiple property ownership or limiting foreign buyers) paired with free market construction could solve long-term affordability.

5. Ideological Critique and Limitations of Policy (12:01–13:07)

• Debater 1 asks for clear end goals from both sides.

• Debater 2 calls Mamdani’s policies “so ignorant to how economies work,” claiming history proves heavy regulation always fails at producing affordable housing.

  • Quote:

    “We’ve run this scenario before, not only here but all over the world. It doesn’t work sometimes. It literally never works.”
    — Debater 2 [12:38]

• The segment ends on the point that current partial rent control in NYC has already led to “totally broken” housing for working- and middle-class residents.

  • Quote:

    “That’s my fucking point is even now, when you have some small amount of it going on, it hasn’t solved shit. Because what it does is it tells — it tells investors don’t invest here.”
    — Debater 2 [12:47]

Notable Quotes/Moments

• “When you start mapping Marxist beliefs on somebody who’s really trying to make the poor’s life better, you’re going to be eternally confused because they’ll do things that are so obviously well documented that it doesn’t work and they do it anyway.”
  — Debater 2 [05:43]

• “Housing is an entrepreneurial endeavor. It is somebody who, their priority product is an apartment complex. You buy that product because you want to live inside of it.”
  — Debater 2 [05:03]

• “If you follow the math, you realize if you make it impossible for business to run, then business stops running.”
  — Debater 2 [12:17]

Important Timestamps

• 01:22 — Introduction of Zoran Mamdani and his political approach.
• 04:45 — Historical failures of rent freezes and the economic motive for housing arson.
• 05:35 — Bronx arson and its economic roots.
• 06:12 — Example of small landlord (retiree) harmed by rent control.
• 08:03 — Argument for increased housing supply via deregulation.
• 08:33 — Rights and realities of neighborhood affordability.
• 12:01 — On socialism and the mathematics of regulation.
• 12:47 — Critique of current rent control’s effects in NYC.

Summary

This lively and passionate episode of Impact Theory brings nuanced and sometimes heated debate over New York’s housing crisis, the dangers and pitfalls of socialist-leaning regulatory policies, and the broader philosophical and factual divide between proponents of market solutions and those seeking extensive intervention. Tom and his guest weave history, economics, and values into a critique that will resonate with anyone interested in the future of cities, equity, and prosperity.