← Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Trump Under Scrutiny For Insider Trading, Cryptic Alien Memes , Thomas Massie & Lone Star Ticks | Tom Bilyeu Show Live
01:52:53
Loading summary
Transcript161 lines
- [00:01]
Tom Bilyeu
Hey, sweetie. Your mother showed me this Carvana thing for selling the car. I'm gonna give it a try. Wish me luck. Me again. I put in the license plate. It gave me an offer. Unbelievable. Okay, I accepted the offer. They're picking it up Tuesday from the driveway. I haven't even left my chair. It's done. The car is gone. I'm holding a check anyway. Carvana, give it a whirl. Love ya. So good you'll want to leave a voicemail about it. Sell your car today on Carvana. Pickup fees may apply. Your summer start starts now with Memorial Day deals at the Home Depot. It's time to fire up summer cookouts with the next grill 4 burner gas grill on special. Buy for only $199 and entertain all season with the Hampton bay West Grove 7 piece outdoor dining set for only $499. This Memorial Day, get low prices guaranteed at the Home Depot while supplies Last price invalid May 14 through May 27. US only exclusions apply. See homedepot.com Pricematch for details. What is up, everybody? Welcome to another episode of the Tom Brewery show live. What is happening? All hell is breaking loose in here.
- [01:10]
Drew
It's the uk.
- [01:11]
Tom Bilyeu
They after us, Drew. They found us. We were at the rally.
- [01:14]
Drew
They got us.
- [01:15]
Tom Bilyeu
All right. I don't know what that was, everybody, but nonetheless, here we are. We are live on the ground in London, England. Very excited to have you guys here. Drew and I did. We worked on our knife defense game. It was good. We felt safe. We were rocking and rolling at the event. It was going to have a good time talking about that, but unfortunately we're going to have to get through Trump being back threatening Iran as Iran rejects the US Conditions for ending the blockade. But our boy Besant, he's going after the banks that help facilitate the fraud in Minnesota. And you know, I love that. Trump rightfully is being called out for making roughly 3,700 trades just in the first quarter of 2026. All came out in his latest ethics report. We're going to be talking about that. Whether politicians should be able to trade stocks or not. This is one I want to fight, Drew. If people do not like what I'm saying, I want to fight about this one. So we'll see. All right. Trump is also meme posting about aliens. Insiders say he has a speech ready to go announcing that we are not alone in the simulation. I mean the universe. We'll see. We'll be talking about that. Massie is getting the APEC treatment. It's very different than a spa treatment. As the political machine has turned against him in Kentucky and AIPAC is reportedly allegedly dumping tens of millions of dollars into the Kentucky race to try and primary Massie. We'll see. As the only one wearing the debt clock, I don't feel good about that. So shout out to my boy Massey. Let's keep his hopes alive. Are all of our hopes alive? And here's a question that we're all going to need to ask and answer. Is the Lone Star tick being used by the WEF class? This conspiracy corner, but is it being used by the WEF class to intentionally make people allergic to red meat? Because the cases of the syndrome which we'll have for you, I'm forgetting the name of it sounds like something from a Superman movie like Jell Al or something like that. But there is a. It is a syndrome that makes people allergic to red meat and it is absolutely burning across the US Rates of it are way, way, way up. So we'll get into the details there, including any potential connection to Bill Gates, though that one's probably a bit far fetched at this point. At least what we actually know. All right, all that and more today, live, live.
- [03:42]
Drew
I didn't know PETA was going to weaponize a tick in their way to cut PETA.
- [03:46]
Tom Bilyeu
Have you seen PETA in this?
- [03:47]
Drew
I think big PETA is colluding and they're gonna have heard that. Yeah, there's gonna have a fauci in a lab who owns all the labs,
- [03:56]
Tom Bilyeu
all the labs right now gain a functioning everything he can. He's on that Ebola. You saw that there's now an Ebola outbreak.
- [04:02]
Drew
I see a couple Americans affected by that.
- [04:04]
Tom Bilyeu
Dude, you, you have to like suck the saliva out of somebody's mouth or eat a monkey to contract Ebola. So that one does not strike me as the hantavirus.
- [04:14]
Drew
Just wrap me in plastic. I don't want to do anything. I don't want to do anything.
- [04:16]
Tom Bilyeu
They're overblowing these ones. Overblown. Don't fall for it ever again, boys and girls.
- [04:21]
Drew
All right? Something that is not overblown is President Trump's wealth, man, he keeps ballooning up. I thought he was smart doing all in crypto, but apparently he was stock trading, too. So. This is a tweet from Richard Sneagle, who has the full article From Bloomberg. George H.W. bush kept his assets in a blind trust, as did Bill Clinton. Neither Obama nor Biden traded stocks or bonds while in office. 3700 trades is probably more than all the trades of all the presidents until now. And he, Donald Trump is trading stocks that are affected by his decisions. A walking conflict of interest at the least. And perhaps, and perhaps insider trading. Just as members of Congress should not be able to trade stocks, so to the President, some of the confirmed stocks that he did trade was Palantir Nvidia. So yes, and intel, the company that us bought a share in. So yeah, on the surface, what I, I know we, we talked about it, we're anti Congressman insider trading aggressively. And then with the President only gets worse. Right.
- [05:18]
Tom Bilyeu
So, okay, Much, much, much worse because he can impact direct policy that will positively benefit him. All right, before we get into all the specifics, I do want to shout out, Kalshi, Kalshi, thank you guys so much for the continued partnership, man, we really, really appreciate it. And when I'm going through stuff like this, we do oftentimes look at the odds, what things are moving to get a sense of where the world is on a given issue. So we'll be talking about that some more today. And Bo, I like to know what Kalshee thinks is going to happen with Congress, with the President being able to trade. This shit is wild. This. You're not nearly angry enough. No matter how angry you are. I promise, not nearly angry enough. Trump is the latest politician to make absolute staggering amounts of money playing in the markets by actively trading while making decisions that sway the markets. This is crazy. It's, even if it isn't insider trading, the things he does impact the price going up and down. And I guarantee this man knows precisely what he's doing. From the perspective of every time the 10 year bond starts getting close to 4.5, which by the way, we sailed past, we're now above it, he'll try and do things to bring it back down. So he understands the markets very, very well. And the fact that we allow our politicians, and the President being the craziest one among them, to trade in a way that is detached from whether or not it's going to be good for the average American is so crazy. And when you hear politicians say, listen, these guys don't make enough money, we are so busy stealing from you via inflation, how are we ever to get by if we're not able to trade in the markets? First of all, let's remember they are the ones that are stealing from everybody, that are forcing all of us to gamble in the markets. Now the markets are amazing. They really are a modern miracle. We want the markets, they are wonderful. We just do not want to have to be forced to be in the markets, which is precisely what they're doing. So let them never pretend like it is not their decisions that are creating this madness that is driving assets to go up, up, up in price. But even if we grant them that, yeah, you should be in the markets. Everybody should be in the markets. Tim Walls was rightly criticized for making out like the markets were a dumb place to have your money. That was so ludicrous, so economically ignorant that it made me want to chew through my own television. So we definitely don't want to encourage people to be blind, ignorant or completely outside of assets. That would be moronic. But we do want to get it lined up so that their incentives are the same as everybody else's incentives. All politicians need to be stuck, stopped from actively trading in a way that could be directly benefited by their trade timing. Okay, that's what I want everybody to queue around. It is when they can profit off of the trade timing for knowing we're about to make this decision or that decision. It is absolute madness that we load them up with all of this information around, like when something is going to happen, that they are the ones that can decide what's going to happen, when it's going to happen, all of that, and then give them a mechanism by which that they're going to be able to profit from that. It is so crazy. It is so self defeating. There really is an iron law of oligarchy. We really are always going to have a small group of elites that are going to be in a position like this. But to make it easy for them to profit off of all of us is so fucking crazy. Like this one, for real. We have to stop down. Everyone can wrap their heads around this. You do not have to have some deep understanding of the economy. But you cannot put somebody in a position where they get to make decisions that will influence whether their stocks go up or down and then let them not only benefit off of whether their stock is going up or down, but actually get the benefit of having the timing right before everybody else. It's just. It's too crazy. So personally, I love the idea of the President and all other politicians being able to sit passively in an index fund, especially if we're talking American index funds. Because I want them to be in a position where if they win, America wins. I want them to be in a position where the only way for them to win is for America to win. We should all want them in that position. We should want to create a Structure where the harder they fight to be selfish and make themselves wealthy, that they can't do it without also making the US Wealthy. So that is a position that we want to be in, but that is not the position that we're letting them be in. Right now they're in a position where they can win regardless of whether Americans win or not. Now so many of them are doing it and the Office of Government Ethics is. Certain things happen, it will trigger them to have to file. Trump, I think, is the first president in quite some time has done so many trades that it triggered the need to actually do the disclosures and the filings that he did show that he has accounts have more than 3,700 trades just in the first three months of 2026. That's wild. That is 40 per day. I pay, I pay way attention to this market. I'm not making anywhere near that now. I'm not an active day trader, so maybe that shouldn't surprise anybody. But this is wild. That is a lot of trades. The cumulative value is somewhere between 220 million and 750 million. These numbers are so big. The names include Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Oracle, Broadcom, Boeing, Goldman Sachs. Like companies that benefit or get punished by what's going on in China, by the subsidies we do in the US by what companies the US Invests in, which they shouldn't be doing. They should just not be investing in US Companies. Let's just be very clear about that. But nonetheless, they are right now. And so we have got to put a policy in place that is going to actually make this make sense. One trade in particular, by the way that people are looking at. Trump bought between 500,000 and a million dollars of Nvidia stock about a week before the Commerce Department approved Nvidia chip sales to China.
- [11:22]
Drew
Great timing. Just fantastic timing.
- [11:25]
Tom Bilyeu
He's a once in a generation trader, Drew, who would have known that being in control of all that would make
- [11:29]
Drew
you a good trader.
- [11:30]
Tom Bilyeu
Isn't that wild? So, alas, I wish I could say that it's only Trump. It is not only Trump. It is all of them. It is the. It's the vast majority. It's not everybody, but it's the vast majority of the political class. This is deeply troubling. We need to end this. So what we need to do is get them into a blind trust, for instance, would be great. And right now Trump has supposedly has all of his accounts in a trust. Okay, step in the right direction. But guess who runs his trust? His kids. Now, if you are asking me to believe that his kids don't know roughly what he's going to be doing. Ballpark. There's no way. And even if I'm just a lunatic and I'm wrong, the optics of how bad this looks is so bad for the country that even just on the optics alone, he should recuse himself out of it and put things in a blind trust. And right now he's not doing that. He has a regular trust. Now, if you want a little bit of context, George H.W. bush used a blind trust. So did Clinton. Obama held T bills and index funds. To be honest, being in T bills, I kind of dig. That's the government saying, I'm going to be in the thing that I don't want to put you at risk. It's what we call the risk free rate of return. It is tied to how well I'm running the country. Now, there are some problems with that, but it's the one like if you're just, you know nothing about the markets and you came to me and said, well, I just want to preserve my capital, what do I do? I would say be in T bills, like, keep it tied to the US Government, go short term, don't get crazy. And so if you've got the president tied up in that same thing, it's not going to be a big return. But at least that one is a reflection of the health of the government. So that is, I think, a reasonable way to do this. Biden didn't trade at all while in office. That one A it's good. From an ethics perspective, it's good. But I would rather see somebody who cares deeply about the markets just in very, very, very blind way. Trump is either the very first sitting president to trigger the disclosure requirement because he's been doing so much trading, or one of a very few. So this is the exact kind of thing that we've got to be on the lookout for. There are ways to do this well, there are ways to do this poorly. And right now, across all of Congress, the Senate, the executive branch, all of it, it is just absolutely ridiculous the way that we're handling it. So again, blind trust, index fund and or US Debt, any of those would be great. But there should be no active trading in individual stocks whatsoever. No exceptions. Otherwise you're incentivizing them to continue working on the back of a broken system because it enriches them so much. It enriches them so much. Guys, there's so much money to be made. Once you understand the way that the markets work. They really are awesome. But if you let it be an elite game. It's so grotesque. It's so grotesque. Okay, I'm here to fight, so I need to know where and I. Even if I'm punching you in the face over the next few minutes, I'm doing it because I love you. Because I wanted to see things go well. I'd be very surprised, but is there anyone in this community that is that thinks that the politicians should be able to do this? I can't imagine we're hitting pause for a moment, but there's plenty more ahead, so don't go anywhere. Every business has it. A ton of it hours buried in reconciling spreadsheets, chasing down reports, re entering the same data across systems that don't talk to one another. Nobody puts it on the P and L, but it is costing you in time, in speed and decisions that just come too late. The solution is NetSuite by Oracle. It's the number one AI cloud ERP trusted by over 43,000 businesses. It brings your financials, inventory, commerce, HR and CRM into one source of truth. No more stitching Together data from five different places. Now, with NetSuite AI connector, use the AI of your choice to tap into your actual business data. Ask every question you've ever had. If your revenues are in the seven figures or higher, get NetSuite's free business guide demystifying AI@netsuite.com theory. The guide is free to you at netsuite.com theory. Again, that's netsuite.com theory. Let's talk about how exposed you really are. Let's say you cut someone off in traffic. They're furious. They snap a photo of your license plate within minutes. They can pull up your home address on a people search site. Your phone number, the names of your kids. Your personal information is sitting on hundreds of data broker sites. Your address, phone number, email, even your Social Security number. Incogni shuts that down. They track your data down across hundreds of sites and remove it. You authorize them once they handle the rest and they keep removing it as it comes back. Plus, with custom removals, you can send them any link where your data shows up and their team is going to get it taken down. Incogni is the first and only data removal service independently verified by Deloitte. So you know it actually works. Go to incogni.com impact and use code impact impact for 60% off an annual plan. Try it risk free for 30 days. That's I n c o g n I.com impact and be sure to use code impact. Let's talk about the difference between winning and losing a deal. Your competitor responded in 10 minutes, you responded in three hours. When a customer reaches out, every minute you wait is a minute they're considering other options. Slow responses don't just frustrate customers, they cost you revenue. And if your team can't see who's already handling what, response times get even worse. Quo is the number one rated business phone system on G2 with over 3,000 reviews built for how modern teams actually work. More than 90,000 businesses rely on it because it's designed to keep you fast and responsive when money is on the line. Say hello with Quo. Try Quo for free plus get 20% off your first 6 months@quo.com impact that's Q U.com impact. Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action.
- [18:05]
Drew
There's nobody that's saying they should be able to do this, but there was somebody that did say it was super immaterial relative to the size of the U.S. economy. Me, quote, unquote.
- [18:14]
Tom Bilyeu
Wow.
- [18:15]
Drew
But I want to, like, dig deeper a little bit before we jump to the chat just now, because we do have to remember a couple of weeks ago, there was a mysterious better that placed the huge bet on oil two times before Trump announced ceasefires two weekends straight in a row. So it's one of those things. Assuming that this disclosure was filed for his public trades, we can only imagine how much is done in crypto and on the poly market and the speculation markets as well. So it's one of those things, full stop. Trump should blind trust all his assets and not do anything. Or is it just the fact that,
- [18:47]
Tom Bilyeu
well, a blind trust is not where you don't do anything. A blind trust is where you say, okay, I'm about to get elected President, so here are all of my assets and I'm going to get into office and I'm going to try to make all those assets worth more. But I can't talk to you about it and you can't talk to me about it. All you can do is I give you some principles on how I want you to think about investing and then we go. And if things are changing and you're reading the market market poorly, then it just is what it is. No timing can be communicated whatsoever. So anything that that person would know, theoretically, is through public statements that the President is making. Everybody will have heard it. So now everybody's on equal footing. So that would be a Blind trust. It's actively being traded. It's just not actively being traded with information from the guy that knows when we're doing what. Here was a private conversation I had with Xi, so I'm pretty confident this is about to happen. None of that is going on. So that would be a blind trust. Now, do I love the idea of them sitting in a passive index fund and just being like, listen, you know, I'm looking at this in the long term time horizon, yes, I would be all for that. Let the index fund do the trading. Now, index funds themselves are constantly being changed and updated, but it's, again, it's not actively being done by that person. So either of those is great for me. But yeah, it is. Being a public servant is best understood as being a servant. And so I love, I actually love. And maybe this is where I'll get to fight with people. I love that a president comes out and now they can make millions of dollars speaking and consulting and helping companies and all that because they'll be so plugged into the world and they'll really be able to get things done. Like, if you've got a former president on your advisory board, the connections that they would be able to make, the goodwill that they would be able to bring, all that if they have a good reputation. So now you're telling the president, hey, don't burn bridges. Come out the other side. Somebody that people want to do business with, that you can help get things done. Like, that's incredible. But that's like, you've got to go do your fucking service. Like, do your thing. And if we put them in that position where we go, listen, 48 years on the other side, you're going to be just ridiculously wealthy because you'll be able to make $500,000 per speaking engagement, a million, 2 million, whatever, you'll be invited to fucking D, you know, bar mitzvahs in Israel, whatever. Like, I love all of that. Like, let them do their thing. And it's only the while they're actively in office, being able to leverage. I know this thing and I'm going to make this decision because it helps me and maybe only me. Like, I've got a weird portfolio. And so this decision is awesome for me. It'll make me tens of millions or, you know, in some of these cases, hundreds of millions of dollars. So that, that's just too wild. You just, it is so hard for somebody to separate themselves from, like, I'm going to do this thing that's terrible for me because it's going to be good for everybody else.
- [21:49]
Drew
Ugh.
- [21:49]
Tom Bilyeu
It's just horrible. Now, I haven't looked closely enough to know if the following statement is just I've been propagandized or if it's actually true. But it's my understanding that our czar of AI and crypto actually got rid of all of his holdings, David Sachs. And so David Sacks probably would have made more than a billion dollars if he had held through all the. All of the decisions that he was making, because he's trying to make decisions that he really thinks is good for crypto, but he just got out of all of it. That's like a public servant. Again, if I've been propagandized, definitely let me know. But if true, like, that's how this should be done. Like, you're. You're wealthy. You've done your thing. Yes, you could get even richer, but, like, just earn the credibility. You know what I mean?
- [22:35]
Drew
Do the thing. Mike Johnson came out end of last week and was talking about how Congress needs to trade stocks because they can't survive on $174,000 a year.
- [22:45]
Tom Bilyeu
So that is. It is both true and a complete outrage. So the reason I'm outraged is they are acting like it isn't them. And so you motherfuckers are the reason. In fact, I'm going to just stay it right here. To any politician watching this, you're the problem. You are the problem. We do not have a balanced budget. I don't even need to know what side of the aisle you're on. Unless you are Thomas Massie and you are wearing your debt clock pin, or you are one of the Pauls and you're saying that we've got to get rid of the Fed. Like, you are the problem. You are quite literally the problem. It is a knowable thing that is putting people in a situation where they cannot save their way to prosperity. Just as a reminder to everybody, because of deficit spending and money printing, which creates inflation, you cannot, as a matter of physics, save your way to prosperity. That is immoral to me. We should have never allowed ourselves to get in this position. We have gotten in this position. Politicians are either too dumb, unwilling to look at it, or understand it perfectly and are going to keep doing it because it's still great for them, because they do understand it and they can get ahead of everybody and they don't care. So that is so wild and grotesque. So, Mike Johnson, fuck you. Very much. Like, literally. Get your head out of your ass. Explain to the American People why you can't make a living off of that, which is that we're using inflation to promise people free shit so that we can get elected. And each and every one of you has an obligation to balance the budget, be fiscally responsible, and start unwinding this problem that we've been creating for a long time. I do not care if it was Biden that made things worse. You're the ones in power right now. You've got to start unwinding this. There is a path to do it. And so start fucking doing it. And then if you want to trade, which I hope you do because it's so beautiful, it's such a powerful way to leverage the American economic engine of prosperity and compounding interest, which is just an absolute miracle of math that the simulation has seen fit to give us. And so I definitely want to see people take advantage of that. But you have to do it in a way that is blind. And so that you are just trying to make the best decisions for a broad swath of America. And if you're doing that, cool. I'm on your team. But for you to make out like there isn't another way to do this that isn't immoral and super fucking sinister is exactly how I feel about Mamdani acting like he can't cut the fucking budget. You cut the budget, you can cut the budget. You don't have to raise taxes. Raise taxes, Raise taxes. And so when people make out like this is the only way, it is such a grotesque lie. You're not that stupid. You know that isn't true and yet you say it anyway. That's so freaky. I just. Yeah, I can't tolerate it. Nobody should tolerate it. I don't care what side of the aisle you're on. Like this will be. If you team up on this one, you will be on a team as you go off the cliff. That may be some, like, solace for you. It is not for me. Dying in a group of people is not nearly as interesting as living alone. So I would really like to encourage everybody, take the exit ramp. Stop making stupid decisions. Economies have physics. This one is such a grotesque violation of the physics. What they are allowing themselves to do is just steal from you in multiple ways. They steal from you via inflation, which they know will jack up their asset prices. Keep in mind, every time I say this, imagine I convince one or two people to go down this path. That's worse for me. I make so much money off of assets. So the question becomes, why do some people Bang the fucking drum about, stop doing this. Stop making me even richer. We have to create a system where you can save your way to prosperity.
- [26:27]
Drew
I'm getting so frustrated now because I can't find this tweet. There was a congressman who tweeted, we need to be able to trade while we're in Congress because we can make money and that's the incentive to join Congress. Otherwise we'll just stay in the private sector and you'll have a bunch of idiots in the public sector.
- [26:43]
Tom Bilyeu
Here's the thing. I love that he's saying it out loud like he's being honest. And so here's the reality. There's no universe in which you want a politician to come in and say, I want to be able to actively trade while I'm here because I'm really going to be able to get ahead. But you 100% want politicians coming in saying, I'm going to do everything I can in my power to make America more economically prosperous because that's how I'm going to take care of my kids. So it's like, it's a subtle difference. But you want them in a position where they are actively trying to do what is in America's best economic interest because it will also serve them. Because I know I can trust people to be selfish. But it's like, I've got to get you to do it in like a certain way. Right where, okay, now we're aligned. Our selfish desires are aligned. And so we've got to build a structure that's like, the better they make it for the American people, the wealthier they get. That'd be fucking awesome if you're making Americans wealthy and let's call it the middle class if you're doing that. Yeah, like, I want to see you make bank, man. But we've got to find a way to either just like the thing I'm doing is tied to your outcomes or the thing that I'm doing is blind. And so I've just got to go for broad based prosperity because I don't know what's actually in my portfolio. So I could be making decisions that are bad for me. So I just have to let go of trying to like, do my own stock portfolio. And I've just got to go, America needs to prosper. And then I'll get like just in, in the margins. Just by making America grow, I'm going to do great.
- [28:22]
Drew
So I guess the delineation for you, if I'm articulating this correctly, is that you're okay. With them being involved in the stock market.
- [28:30]
Tom Bilyeu
I want them involved.
- [28:31]
Drew
Okay. Because then they have skin in the game. Yes, got it.
- [28:34]
Tom Bilyeu
Like, dude, the stock market is the engine of American prosperity. And unfortunately right now, debt, Debt is basically the engine of American. Not basically, debt is the engine of American prosperity. We've got to wean ourselves off of that. We've got to be innovators, we've got to be builders, we've got to be manufacturing. Dude, guys, please start following some of the accounts in China that show what they're building and making. It is really extraordinary. And do the same in America. Get a sense of who's building what where. And I think you guys will be both inspired and a little jealous if you're watching some of the things that are happening in China. It's extraordinary. So do not try to make light of your worthy adversary. Right. So don't make China some evil empire. Though they have done many evil things in the past. Merely look at what the things that they're doing that we would want to learn from. Because there are many things that they are doing. They are a worthy adversary. And so we need to be inspired to build, to create, to innovate. And out of that, to make an insanely prosperous country. Both from a working class, I'm building something, I'm building things that matter. And from a capital class of like the average person, on the day that they're born gets that distribution into their account so that now they're tied into the game and they want to see that go up. I really think that's going to play out very, very well in the fullness of time.
- [30:10]
Drew
All right, so this was just a breaking news article. We'll wait and see what actually comes by when it comes from DOJ investigations, any reform or policies.
- [30:19]
Tom Bilyeu
Nothing. I'll just.
- [30:20]
Drew
Hey, spoiler alert, spoiler alert. Nothing's gonna happen.
- [30:22]
Tom Bilyeu
Absolutely nothing comes.
- [30:23]
Drew
Nothing's gonna happen.
- [30:24]
Tom Bilyeu
Now, over time, I'm hoping that we get thousands of people saying exactly the same thing that I'm saying right now that you guys start saying it. And if we get enough people beating this drum, eventually the change will, will happen. But we are in a race against the clock. So I, I really think we're on a, we were on a ten year clock like six months ago. So you've got nine and a half years, literally. And unfortunately it won't be binary. It'll just get worse and worse and worse as we go. But if you act like that, like we're on a roughly 10 year timeline to Turn this around. Hopefully that gives the appropriate amount of urgency. But we don't start thinking super short term. We understand that there is time to really get this moving in the right direction, but we need to act with urgency. But, yeah, in the short term, until a lot more of us start banging this drum, nothing's going to change.
- [31:14]
Drew
All right. Speaking of a short clock, Trump had a tweet for Iran. For Iran, the clock is ticking and they better get moving fast or there won't be anything left of them. Time is of the essence. This is after the latest rejection of peace talks. Yeah, we forget we're still at war or so. So we sort of.
- [31:30]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, we're in some weird standoff. Yeah, this is one, boys and girls, where it is very difficult to know exactly what is going to happen with all of this, because at some point, we are going to have to finish this off. And I don't think that you can walk out. So I don't need you to believe that we're. That you should want to go to war. But I will tell you that I don't think that you can just walk away from this one and leave the Strait of Hormuz closed. That is not going to be an acceptable solution. So, basically, Iran first. The US Put forward what they would want to end hostilities. Iran rejected that. They put forward what they want to end hostilities. It's like we're going back and forth point by point. I think there's 16 paragraphs they're going back and forth on. There are multiple, just hard stops for both the US And Iran. So right now, there's no end in sight. So the question is, are we going to go back to open hostilities? Yeah, I'll prognosticate. I don't have any strong conviction other than to say I think that Trump has backed himself into a corner. I don't think there's any way for him to exit out of this gracefully. If China got involved like they intimated that they might when they were meeting, maybe, but. But they're not exactly. Now that the summit is over, they're not exactly echoing with the same level of enthusiasm some of the things that they said. So we shall see. If this comes to pass, I would expect that we are going to return to hostilities. I don't see. I mean, at some point, Trump is just. It will have drug on so long, gas prices will be elevated so high, you're going to start seeing this move through the system. It will look exactly like inflation. You're getting just dangerously close to the midterms it will be too bad for me. He's going to have to do something. And so I, I think the Hail Mary pass is going to be to go back to hostilities. If you actually see Iran go in, take control of the Internet cables, which they say they're going to be doing, if they go in and are charging ships a toll, like just a standard toll fee, that's going to force Trump to make a decision about whether he's going to keep the blockade going. So at some point the message will turn and become, well, there actually isn't a blockade on behalf of Iran. The blockade is now on behalf of the us. And people have already been saying for quite some time none of this was like this before the US went after Iran. And so this is really a US causing this problem. It's us prolonging this problem. And we would rather pay the $2 million fee that we blame the US for anyway. And if all of that momentum turns against him, it could get very weird. Now, the only thing that begs a question is you've got Iran striking the uae, you've got the UAE striking Iran back. Back. So if there is further escalation kinetically between the other GCC nations and Iran, that could give you, we were talking about in the last episode, if Trump is able to build that coalition of the willing, as they say in the region, and it's not the US isolated, then that could be something. If the other nations around the world start feeling enough pressure and they, instead of, well, they, they may publicly say that this is really the US's fault, but eventually they're going to realize that, yeah, you can't just let Iran control ll of this. And so even though we wish we weren't in this situation, even though we do blame the US for getting us into this situation, it is now Iran that is charging the fee. We can't have that. We certainly don't want to set the precedent that people can control the waters around them. For a very, very, very long time now, it has been that international waters are open for trade. So this would be a major shift in the wrong direction. And I have a feeling that that would force other countries to act. We'll see. Taking a short break. But there's more impact theory after. Stay tuned. Let's talk about the worst investment most guys make on repeat, cheap clothes. You buy them, they look fine, but six months later they're pilling, shrinking, or just falling apart. So you replace them, you do it again and again, you're spending more over time and you never actually have anything worth keeping or wearing for that matter. That's the whole model behind Quints. I've got one of their 100% Pima Cotton Tees and the quality is immediately obvious from the second you pick them up. They're soft, well constructed, the kind of thing that holds up over time. And that is the point. Refresh your everyday with luxury you'll actually use. Head to quince.com impactpod for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. Now available in Canada too. That's Quince Q-U-I-N C E.com impactpod for free shipping and 365 day returns. Quints.com impactpod expedia and visit Scotland Invite you to come Step into centuries of history that await in Scotland. Castles steeped in legend walk along cobbled stone streets. Come share the warmth of stories passed down through generations.
- [36:49]
Drew
This is a place with a past
- [36:51]
Tom Bilyeu
that is fully present today and all yours to explore. Plan your Scottish escape today@expedia.com VisitScotland Study and Play come together on a Windows 11 PC and for a limited time,
- [37:07]
Guest or Additional Commentator
college students get the best of both worlds. Get the unreal college deal, everything you need to study and play with select Windows 11 PCs. Eligible students get a year of Microsoft 365 Premium and a year of Xbox game Pass ultimate with a custom color Xbox wireless controller. Learn more@windows.com studentoffer while supplies last ends June 30th terms at aka mscollegepc.
- [37:32]
Tom Bilyeu
Thanks for staying tuned. Now let's get back to it.
- [37:34]
Drew
Yeah, we're on a bit of a ticking time bomb with one, it's the ecological consequences with, with Iran leaking their own oil into the ocean long term, and then two, with Iran launching a major drone attack and allegedly attacking a nuclear power plant in the uae, that can have some big blowback. So it seems maybe if the retaliation doesn't get us, we also have the ecological port and if those deals fall through, maybe us does another assault. So this is one of those wait and see things for sure.
- [38:01]
Tom Bilyeu
It seems like yeah, this is, this is. I don't think we're gonna have to wait very long to see. I think this is going to.
- [38:09]
Drew
To see what it is or to get to a conclusion, to get.
- [38:11]
Tom Bilyeu
Well, to see what the next move is going to be because you never know what direction that's going to break. And this really could end up being this very weird new style of prolonged warfare. I don't think he's going to put boots on the ground. So I think he's going to keep lobbying missiles from a distance, keep this weird stalemate. What's going to be, the question is, what happens to all the people that are trapped in the Strait of Hormuz now? Where does China go when they realize, oh, wow, this is really dragging on now they said in the summit, if what's being relayed to an American audience can be believed, they said in the summit that they're going to remain neutral, that they're not going to be selling weapons to Iran, that they want to see the strait get opened, that they, the street has to be opened. According to them, it was at least relayed to us as if they're like, yeah, this is an Iran problem, this is not a U.S. problem. And so if that holds true and China puts pressure on Iran and then other nations are putting pressure on Iran, we may at least be able to see the opening of the strait while further negotiations happen. And you get this sort of stalemate that's punctuated by the occasional bombardments back and forth and then back to blockades undoing. Right? And you'll see this sort of accordion effect. So I could see that dragging out for a year or more, because if I'm Iran, I'm just thinking, get to midterm, get to midterms. Fuck this kid. He's 100% toasted the midterms. And if they can drag it out till the midterms, I mean, bro, can you see a single path through for Trump? If the economy's in bad shape, and right now it will be in terrible
- [39:45]
Drew
shape, everything's going to drag on to November. Gas prices are going to be $7.
- [39:51]
Tom Bilyeu
So he'll lose the House for sure, maybe the Senate, although I don't know if there are enough seats up that that's possible. But he'll lose the House. If he loses the House, it's impeachment all day, every day and they'll just go ham. And so his legislative agenda, which is already struggling, is going to grind to a halt. He'll try to do things through eos, but it will just get even slower, even more messy than it is now. Some of his key initiatives on tariffs have been shot down by the Supreme Court. So it's like he's, he will be lame ducked hard if he can't get this one squared away. So I mean, that's going to force him to do some sort of something or, you know, just admit defeat. I suppose it's possible that he just convinces himself that, well, the stock Market's doing well and that won't be enough.
- [40:41]
Drew
Definitely will hit a new high. I can say that for sure. All right, let's shift gears right now. We have now the Kalshi trade of the week. And if you guys want to participate, make sure you use code impact for $10 off your first trade. Thomas Massie is getting a lot of buzz in the news right now. He was an incubate, the incumbent, a long term favorite and then he got APAC on him and now his odds have dropped dramatically. He started this race at 60% favorite. He's now down to 45% and that is trending down. For those that don't understand the conversions, if you put $100 on Thomas Massie right now, you can get back $218 if he wins. So massive underdog, more than two to one ratings that he will not win. So the APAC and The the super PACs that are supporting his challenger, a lot of money is coming from foreign places. People are now starting to look at it sideways. What's your take on Thomas Massie getting primaried by Israel?
- [41:36]
Tom Bilyeu
My biggest take is for the love of God, get money out of politics. This is exactly how this stuff gets deranged. So we're going to have to find a way to make sure that if money's being put together that it's all got to be individual or something. Any. Anyway, I don't have a exact solution for that. But I can tell you that that really is the problem. All right. Kentucky's 4th district has become the most expensive U.S. house primary in American history. It's not even close to being over. Voters go to polls on Tuesday, May 19, and right now the ad spending has exceeded $32 million with pro Israel interest groups accounting for over 9 million of the spending against Massie. But that's only 9 of 32. So there's a lot of people in here that don't want to see Mass elected. Now you do have to ask the question, why don't these people want Massie to get elected? And I will say that, listen, I don't know. I haven't done a super deep dive on him, but he seems like a pretty unbiable guy who seems very focused on economics. And that's never good if you're one of the big money people trying to throw money around to control politics. So when you think that the past 2024 record was when AIPAC spent 14.5 million to unseat Representative Jamal Bowman in New York, now that's more from apac, but in terms of the overall spend, that was the last time that we were in this territory. So we're quite a bit above that number. And the playbook really is identical to what they did to unseat Bowman. And so the game is basically, you get a bunch of people together, you pull your money in, you go and say, oh, you're not going to play ball. We're going to primary you, we're going to get somebody else to. And I don't know if it's first past the poll or whatever, but get them to be the candidate that the party actually gets behind. So they basically make it impossible for the people to vote for them. And so if you want to know how money deranges politics, this is it right here. So if this is something that bothers you and you want to see this kind of thing go away, get out. Support your boy Massey. If you're in Kentucky, now's your chance. And the person that they're trying to replace him with is a retired Navy seal, Ed Gallerain. Trump political advisors Chris Lacivita and Tony Fabrizio have raised more than 2 million for their mega Kentucky pack from a trio of top pro Israel billionaires. Paul Singer, John Paulson and a group linked to Miriam Adelson. Trump endorsed Galrane, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is being deployed to Kentucky to stump for him. Move the critics say violates the Hatch Act. So we'll see. Man, this kind of stuff, this is like the messy ugliness of politics. But at least Massie is not taking this sitting down. He's introduced the Americans Insist on Political Agent Clarity Act. Oh, look at that. Apac. Look at that. All right. While I certainly appreciate the acronym, I think we need something a little bit catchier, Mr. Massey. But anyway, this would force APAC lobbyists to register as foreign agents under FARA, which is a great idea, by the way. The more people can disclose what their charter is, what they're after, what kind of America they want to see, the better. I would love to know that, man. If you've got a pack, what do you guys stand for? Why are you voting for this person? That would be amazing. I'd have to think about the implications of that. But if you want to know, does it tickle my fancy? It does, but, yeah, I'd have to explore whether that's just pure emotion or not. So, yeah. I hate this. I hate seeing money in politics. I hate seeing anything other than a politician putting their message out there, going head to head with somebody else who has a message and seeing what the people in the relevant district want to see. I think people should just state very plainly, this is the America that I'm trying to bring forward, or this is the Kentucky that I'm trying to bring forward for you guys. This is precisely how I plan to do it.
- [45:38]
Drew
It.
- [45:38]
Tom Bilyeu
And then people saying, yeah, that's either the Kentucky I want or it's not. And if it's not, then I'm going to vote for the other guy who is representing the thing that I want to see. And that's really what this should be. This should be a kung fu fight of ideas, plain and simple. Get these motherfuckers on the stage. In fact, Drew, I think I believe this now. I have believed things in the past only to think better of them later down the road. But thinking extemporaneously here, I don't think that these people should be able to opt out of debates. I think they should be forced to debate a certain number of times. Wow, I really like that idea. If you think this is terrible, I want you to fight me. If anybody's in chat that can help me battle test this idea, I want to fight about it. But the fact that we let people opt out of debates is wild. I want to know what you think, and I want to know what you think in, like, very long form. I want, like, man, I could see saying, I need to see minimum number of hours in hostile environment. I mean, something like, we've really got to see people face their constituents. We've got to see people face, like, professional debate settings. We've got to see people face extemporaneous speaking so that we can get them out of their loop. Like, there's no way that these guys should be able to get into office without, like, defending what they think against the hardest criticism. Like, that is so crazy to me. Me. So, yeah, that feels. That feels good.
- [47:04]
Drew
This one might show my age because. But I remember when Paul Ryan was running for vice president against Joe Biden. Joe Biden. And they had their debate when they were literally at tables with notebooks and, like, paper, and it was like you could tell they were, like, writing notes to each other. That was the first time you seen people kind of share through their ideas and talk through it. It was almost kind of like a faux whiteboard session. Never happened again. They ended up switching the vice president debate to make it look like the presidential debate. But there is something to that. Do you think that that's in their favor? Because we see.
- [47:35]
Tom Bilyeu
No, it's not in their favor. Like, unless you're a good debater. Yeah.
- [47:38]
Drew
To not be. Oh, it's purposely not that way because it's.
- [47:42]
Tom Bilyeu
You've got all the spin doctors behind the scenes that know how to like position it and say it. And they're like, I want time to write this shit down. I don't want you to say something like off the cuff that makes you look like a dumbass or. Or maybe you're a terrible fucking debater. And so I don't want you up there. I don't want somebody that could catch you off guard. I don't want somebody that could walk you into a trap. Hell no. Like, I want to control all of this top to bottom. I want this. Like, I want the questions ahead of time. I want to know certain things are off limits. Like, what I want is the exact opposite. I want to see people that are long form. It doesn't even need to be podcasting, but I want them long forming. I want to see three hours.
- [48:22]
Drew
Yeah.
- [48:22]
Tom Bilyeu
No cuts, no, no, no edits whatsoever. I want to see the full live. Ideally, long form, friendlies, hostiles, like both. Just like up, down, left, right where you're going against each other. Let the crowds vote on who they think won. Dude, like, it is crazy to me because we're watching this happen in real time in la, where all of a sudden they're like opting out of debates. Opting out like that. That's crazy. Crazy. Like these guys work for us. I'm gonna find out what you think. Like you're going to tell me that anything else is crazy, Tone.
- [48:59]
Drew
But I mean, that might be the strategic advantage because we were just, we came from another studio and they were even talking about Spencer Pratt all the way over here because he's doing it purposely, going on long form, talking a lot, putting out a lot of content. Kind of the opposite of what a lot of these politicians do, which is they get their small subset that they know are going to show up at the poll box, talk to them, and then that's it. They don't want the mass campaign saying they don't want a lot of people and a lot of attention and things like that to try to sneak in there. I don't understand that though, because I always, I met politicians as egocentric people who wanted to be famous. So I thought they would never say no to the opportunity to go on a mic and talk, talk in front of media personalities and things like that. So a lot of them, you just think their ideas wouldn't be able to stand the test of time. That is correct. Debate and that's correct.
- [49:41]
Tom Bilyeu
They also don't know how to defend themselves. So they don't know how to articulate their ideas. They don't know how to take that thing that you just said that I haven't thought of it that way before. Let me come back. They don't know their stats, they don't know their figures. They're arguing from a position of emotion. It's all of that stuff gets laid very, very bare. And it would force a higher caliber of talent, certainly from an intellectual horsepower perspective, a linguistic perspective. Like, they would have to be better at that stuff. So, yeah, I just think we've got to find a way to get a higher caliber of person to do this. And we have to understand what their ideas are and how they came. Excuse me. How they came to those conclusions.
- [50:24]
Drew
And of course, we can't get off of Massey without the Jew angle of it all. Somebody just put in the chat, it should be illegal if an international like a foreign country is actively intervening into our elections. Yeah.
- [50:36]
Tom Bilyeu
The way they have to think about it is this, though. AIPAC is made up of Americans. And so these are Americans that love bubblegum. And should Americans that love bubblegum, even though the bubble gum is produced in one country, like, should they have to register as a agent of a foreign nation? So that's where this gets tricky. That's how this has always gotten tripped up. Now if they really are acting like an agent of a foreign nation, great. Just make sure that the policy is a policy. Don't try to target aipac. Think about, okay, people are pulling in, in a thousand different directions. Like you might have one politician. They're just pulling for a business, right? There's like a company or bankers in general or whatever, and they're pulling in their direction. I don't feel any better about that than I feel about apac. So anybody that is making life worse for the middle class is my enemy. So now it's like, okay, I want a policy that catches all these guys, guys, regardless of country. Now if you are legitimately like our Arcadia mayor, you're actively getting paid by a foreign agent, then yes, you should disclose that. But if you just have an affinity for it, that it gets a little bit weirder there. So I would just say there's probably better ways to catch that than trying to force them to register as a foreign agent, because they're going to deny it, which is, I'm sure, a big part of the reason that it hasn't happened until now. Yeah, I'll leave it at that. So on that one, think of it as special interests are a problem no matter what. And so how do we get people to disclose their special interest? That's far more interesting.
- [52:24]
Drew
Do you think this is a policy that we go right at the beginning? Citizens United. No money in politics. If it's not grassroots from an individual, $10 or less, you have to be reported? Or do you think it's not the Citizens United, the recent influx of money in politics, it's just that now it's foreign, or now that it's perverted, what's kind of your method of. Should it be grassroots?
- [52:45]
Tom Bilyeu
You know, it's interesting. I. I've never done a deep dive on Citizens United or any of that. I know. I understand. At the headline level. And so my instinct on this one is that you want individuals to be able to donate to the person that they care about. That's fine. However, you're always going to get sophisticated people that go, oh, I'm just going to go behind the scenes and organize. Like, you'll never be able to stop that unless you treat it like insider trading, where you're not even allowed to talk to people about, well, how are you guys going to vote? And then you see the FBI, like, raiding like yoga circles and shit, because the yoga moms are in there talking about it. So that. I think that gets weird really fast. Past which is exactly how they're getting around this issue. And so I don't know exactly how you begin to break that kind of thing apart, because people should be able to support whoever they want to support. We could do something. But this, I mean, this ends up being a lot of money, but you could do something where you say, all right, you guys each get $250 million to run your campaign and that's it. There's no raising money from the public. Nothing. You can take exactly zero dollars and zero cents. You can't take so much as, like, a sticker off of somebody if you're running for office. So you could do something like that. But that doesn't really scale down to, like, the small things. And so now the only people that run are people that, like, can afford it. And so that probably just won't work. But I would have to audit. Like, what do countries do where they don't allow, quote, unquote, money in politics? Like, if they actually found a solution to this, maybe there already is one. And I'm. I just am not aware of it. It. But yeah. You have to do something where people cannot become so important to a politician that they're like, well, I either do this or I don't get elected. Like, it is an absolute outrage that Elon Musk, aipac, anybody will go, I don't like your politics. I'm about to primary you. And the thing is, on the things that Elon says, like, I'm pretty aligned with most of his stuff, but I still think it's an absolute outrage. I am mortified. Even if it's something that I think ends up benefiting me, the way he's going about it is horrendous. And so I don't want to see it from anybody. Not somebody I agree with, not somebody I hate. Like, it's just. It's so deranging because I'm just way too aware that, that in the times that I am most convinced I am right, I am at my most vulnerable. And so if people could just say, listen, I'm going to argue for this in direct proportionate to how proportion to how much I feel about it, that it matters, and how right I think I am. Okay, that is as it should be. But because I know I could be wrong, I don't want to be able to have undue influence. Right. I want to be as persuasive as I can, but I don't want to be able to leverage some other thing, money, to get me ahead. I want everybody to have a neutral playing field. I'm happy to go to battle with. God only gave me so much iq. Okay, so I'm limited by that. But maybe I've got more than some verbal ability. Same thing. And then after that, it's like the ideas become the unfair advantage. And then it should just be people's ability to communicate the idea and get people excited. But so much of what we do is this. Behind the scenes cabals and secret whispers and funding, NGOs and money in politics,
- [56:14]
Drew
it's just private fundraising dinner.
- [56:16]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah. Like, it's really, really maddening.
- [56:19]
Drew
Yeah. We shall see. We shall see. Trump tweeted out a picture of him with an alien, too. This is dope.
- [56:27]
Tom Bilyeu
How can you not love this, though?
- [56:29]
Drew
What is there to love? Like, this is. People are dying.
- [56:32]
Tom Bilyeu
What is there not to love?
- [56:33]
Drew
$6 gas. But, hey, here's Trump with a speaker.
- [56:38]
Tom Bilyeu
Because I brought you $6 gas. I brought. I owe you this one. That's how I read this. I owe you me walking with an alien who looks to be in handcuffs. Sort of.
- [56:50]
Drew
Yeah. Like, the chain isn't even Lined up, right. So.
- [56:53]
Tom Bilyeu
Dude, this is so great. I'm sad that this makes some people mad. This one's awesome.
- [56:57]
Drew
Yeah. Do you think that there is going to be some type of alien invasion? There's no.
- [57:02]
Tom Bilyeu
I think 100% aliens don't exist. You are in a simulation and there's no sense in. Unless the simulation is designed to collide these two civilizations. It is just too taxing on the simulation to run this stuff if we are going to do it. I have a feeling. I mean, look, it could just be that we're at that part of the simulation where. Okay, cool. And now's the point where the first civilization finds you. But given some of the aliens, the odds, like if there were aliens, the Drake equation says that it would just be full of self replicating robots. They're called von Neumann machines. So that's where it just doesn't seem probable that if there were aliens, we wouldn't already know about it. So is now do I think that the government is lying? No. Maybe they really believe it. I think there are people that really believe that what they found are aliens and this is proof and yada yada, but I think it's far more likely that this was a program at some point when people were trying to manipulate us. And
- [58:02]
Drew
where do you think the aliens pandemonium is coming from? Like, people love aliens. People want there to be aliens. This is almost like outside of the Epstein file. I figure like the alien files are. Is also kind of in that vein. And I think while Trump abandoned the Epstein ones, he's now embracing the alien ones and is starting to lean into like this alien craze. Do you think it's just more like muck for his base and they're just excited about it. What is the draw for it? Because to me, I don't know what's on the other side of this.
- [58:29]
Tom Bilyeu
Trump understands algorithms. He understands content. This is great content. He knows people are going to talk about this. He also, like, at some point he's just pure id. Like he has an idea and he tweets it out. So I have a feeling somebody sent him that. Or he saw it on whatever the one he's on True Social and was like, oh, yeah, word, I'm gonna send that out. I can't fathom he puts a lot of thought into these. He will sometimes tweet like 40 times in two hours. Like, it's wild. Failed. So, yeah, I think he just thinks, oh, I'm gonna, I'm gonna wind people up with this one. And Then also, if he's about to give a big, like, people are saying that he has a speech ready to go that acknowledges that we have aliens. And, yeah, I don't buy it. We'll see. But this one just does not strike me as very plausible. And it isn't going to be like, here they are. Let me wheel it out. Let me show you the autopsy results. Here's what we learned. China, be careful. We got this, you know, gravity propulsion thing, and we're, you know, gonna be able to fuck you guys up in 0.2 seconds. It's not gonna be anything like that. It's gonna be like a bit of tissue, blurry photos and promises about. No, no, no, for real. We have them. They're on ice. We can't show them. Blah, blah, blah. It's gonna be some BS like that.
- [59:43]
Drew
All right, let's jump over to the head of the Treasury, Scott Besant, who just announced the Internal Revenue Service is launching a massive audit on financial institutions that facilitated the laundering of Minnesota funds. So I think they're taking a different approach from the fraud. Instead of going back to the people or arguing with the institutions, they're now looking at it from a tax revenue standpoint to audit what that where the money is going.
- [60:07]
Tom Bilyeu
All right, so what he's talking about here is that we're going to be going after the banks that have facilitated the money laundering for these fraudulent, you know, different things like the daycares and stuff like that in Minnesota. So what I think people lose sight of when they're doing this is that you are leaving a trail, man. And that trail is very easy to track down. So they're just doing, I would assume, some version of forensic accounting to figure out how the money was moved, who understood what was going on, who could have stopped it, who didn't stop it, and were any laws violated so they can go after these people. And ultimately, that's what you're gonna have to do. This is where you've really got to go. People have got to get arrested. People have to go to jail if they did things that were illegal. Otherwise, it's never going to stop. It's like balancing the budget. Getting the fraud under control are two of the biggest things that we could do to make it possible for people to save their way to prosperity. We cannot tolerate fraud. Cannot tolerate fraud. And it is becoming very clear that we have been, maybe unknowingly, we have been tolerating a level of fraud that is so big that it's almost impossible to believe. So that we have to stop. So I was super encouraged to see that there are very few people that understand the plumbing of the global economy better than Scott Besant. I think he was a great choice for Secretary of the Treasury. And so seeing him being used in the hunt for fraud, I think is exceptional. Now, I will just remind all these wonderful people doing great work. Just make sure you're going to see fraud in red and blue states. So don't just target one state and give people or one color state and give people the excuse to say that this is a political hit job. So, yeah, spread that wealth around because I have a feeling you're going to find it everywhere.
- [62:03]
Drew
Okay. There's a couple angles with the fraud thing I want to kind of tackle. You basically noted at the end that it is a red and blue thing. There was another tweet talking about alleged California fraud that was. Was fueled through the Green initiative program. So solar panels, all these green companies, people are taking the money and kind of running with it that way. So it seems like the threads that I'm seeing so far in fraud are government issues programs, nonprofits, bureaucrats use those programs and they pay 20% to give the services and the 80% they try to pocket as much as possible.
- [62:36]
Tom Bilyeu
I try.
- [62:36]
Drew
They do, yeah. So I don't want to say is this just a result of government spending? Is it a lack of due diligence? It seems like it's starting to become a repeatable, easily identifiable problem that keeps happening.
- [62:47]
Tom Bilyeu
This is intentional evil. So what they're doing is they are passing budgets in a way that they know the money is going to go to an ngo and a very meaningful amount of that will, through one or two steps, come back to their campaign, which is exactly why they do it. And it's exactly why you end up getting very little done for the money. But most of these projects takes years and years. And so people, they're hoping just forget about it. The political machinery is. Is so broken right now. People are just going to vote for whoever they view as their team anyway. And so the money is being funneled, not funded, funneled, not to the actual end recipient that you think it's going to be going to. It's coming back to political campaigns, coming back to NGOs. And these guys are making bank off this stuff. And it's happening like a lot. Like a lot a lot. So that America is so rich and is so able to fund things through the deficit spending, through debt, and put that off on a lot of people outside of the US that for decades now we have been robbing from dollar holders, which of course hurts the working class and the middle class the most. But we've been stealing from them and people that hold dollars in US debt the world over so that we could do this kind of stuff, fund NGOs circle money back into the pockets of politicians to run their campaigns. And it's really pretty despicable. But because we are such a prosperous nation, it was like things still worked well enough that we've been able to limp along, but now we're really feeling it the slowly. We have been bleeding out the country for so long that it's now taking a toll and it's noticeable and people are getting pissed because things are just getting more and more and more expensive. But it's getting more and more and more expensive because of this kind of blatant corruption, fraud and just outright incompetence.
- [64:46]
Drew
Yeah. Now there is some accountability on the current administration that has to happen if it's one from gutting some of these law pursuing firms within the government. So there are cuts in financial crimes, there are cut in white collar crimes across the board as well as some of the people that he pardoned himself were convicted of fraud, fraud. Some are Medicare fraud, some are frauds of other places like that. It seems like we have policies in place. We were talking about insider trading earlier where this is something that's not supposed to happen, it's illegal, and yet politicians, one way or another, one side or the other, seem to either step aside of it, operate directly in conflict with that policy. Right. And nothing seems to happen. Nobody gets like in trouble for this. How do we keep faith in this system where so many people seem to be getting away with quote, unquote, murder?
- [65:36]
Tom Bilyeu
I mean a big part of it is just going to be transparency. So if you remember when Tesla started getting firebombed, you had Elon saying, hey, there's a whole bunch of fraud, waste and abuse. What we need to do is get transparency, create a way for everybody to see what's going on, where the money's going, be able to track this stuff.
- [65:55]
Guest or Additional Commentator
Stuff.
- [65:56]
Tom Bilyeu
The systems are insanely outdated. This stuff is very easy. Part of the reason that Elon knew that Trump was going to win was through technology. I think part of it was that he knew where like the illegal votes were coming from. He's able to shut it down, but it's like he's got, he and many other tech people have access to sophisticated technology that would be able to track this stuff trivially. And they're not doing it, they're not doing it because people want a level of opaqueness so that you can't see where the money's going, who gets what, how all the NGOs are connected and all that stuff and they're trying to move it and shuffle it and shell company this, that and the other. We can end that with technology and with AI, we'd be able to map this money went exactly to these places. I mean, you should be able to follow it from $1st to $last now with AI and understand exactly where this stuff goes. Did it go to, you know, $14,000 dollar, gold plated plunger, like where did the money actually go? And when you owe the government money, they have a pretty easy time figuring out how much you owe them and whether you spent your money appropriately. So I want to see that same level of scrutiny held to the government, to politicians, where the money's going, et cetera, et cetera. So we should all covet that transparency. We should covet knowing every line item in the budget. And I get that there are going to be some things that are going to be classified and we won't be able to see it, but boy, oh boy, does that need to be a very small percentage of the total budget. And so if we don't do that, we're going to keep having this. If we keep acting like we can't upgrade these technologies, then it's it. Those systems being outdated will be abused by people who are sophisticated to filter money away from the working class and middle class and funnel it up to the wealthy. Just over and over and over and over and over and over and over over. And I mean, everybody's pissed off about it, but this is one where get out of your feels and just walk through. What would you have to do? How do I know the answer is transparency? Because that's the only way that this is going to work. The problem is I just don't know. And so if I just don't know, then it's like, oh, it's so confusing. I don't know how to go after who really did a bad thing or not. I'm saying even if we want to just say forget the past and just make a big announcement, hey everybody, guess what? As of of June 1, 2026, every single dollar you spend is going to be accounted for and you will be responsible. All of the software is going to require that people insert like what it's actually for and then we're just going to be able to follow that all the way down to what it exactly did that pay for. And yep, it's going to be a little bit more onerous and you are going to have to do a fair amount of tracking to get all this done. But we're automating all of this with upgraded software. Wonderful. And again with AI, these kinds of massive data sets are now possible. Now look, in all honesty, it's going to take you a few years to work out the kinks and all of that, but we need to start doing it immediately. Unless those dollars are classified, there should not be a single dollar that we can't account for.
- [69:07]
Drew
For.
- [69:07]
Tom Bilyeu
And the fact that the Pentagon can't pass an audit, it's just stupid going with that.
- [69:13]
Drew
We just came back from friend of The Show, Peter McCormick show and he talked about that I'll give control to the AI government tomorrow. Let's go. Are you kind of in that camp as well? Like we need a hell no. No, no. You still think the human should it be AI does a budget and humans have to verify like it should be
- [69:32]
Tom Bilyeu
humans do a budget and AI allows us to sift through all the data. What I would want is like Elon has open sourced the algorithm for X. Most people are never going to go look at it, but anybody can go look at it. So I want a budget that is like accurate, where I can see where everything went. I want to see donations to political people, all that, like literally every dollar of it. And I want to see every trade that a politician makes. There's no hiding it. I want to see it in real fuck like all of those things. I get it.
- [70:08]
Guest or Additional Commentator
Yeah.
- [70:08]
Tom Bilyeu
You want to be a politician and thank you for your service, but guess what? It comes with. It comes with these things and so that kind of thing. Yeah, I'm, I am absolutely here for. I do not trust AI at all right now. AI is a tool, but people should be able to use that AI to go in and look at the data this way so that you can slice it and dice it however you want. But yeah, the I feel about the government when they act, act like they don't owe me transparency. I feel the same way that I do when the bank acts like my money's their money. It is instant red line. It is tea in the bay. Like 100% absolutely not. Like, this is crazy and I really can't believe that we tolerate it. It is you work for me, not in like a go shout at the DMV employee, I pay your wages kind of way. But the government works for us. Us like they. They are for us, period. End of story. Like, their only job is to serve the people. And, yeah, if I want to know how my money's being spent, you're going to show me. And right now, we hide between behind, like. Oh, well, technically, it's very difficult. No, you don't have the political desire to see this stuff. Be transparent. But let me tell you, if I wasn't keeping my books inside of impact theory, y' all have a seizure.
- [71:27]
Drew
That's. That's very real. All right, let's jump over to Austin right now, where authorities are issuing a shelter in place after 10 shootings happened in the last 24 hours. The suspects are teenagers and the victims were random people. They think that is coordinated by, like, the same group of people currently investigating
- [71:44]
Tom Bilyeu
10 shootings that occurred late yesterday and into today. At this time, most of the shootings have occurred in South Austin. Again, no specific motive, and they appear to be random in nature. This investigation is ongoing, and APD asks that you remain vigilant and if you see something suspicious, please call 91 1. Do not approach a vehicle.
- [72:03]
Drew
All right, so they're remaining village vigilant. They're going to see what happens. 10 shootings in 24 hours. Seems wild, though.
- [72:11]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah. People are saying that these are coordinated, so it'll be interesting to see, like, if this is some sort of either gang initiation or dare among a group of friends or something. And I don't know, did we get information on how many people were injured or killed? We had to turn the volume down on our side, so I don't remember hearing how many people were injured or killed. So it'll be interesting to see what happens from this. But, yeah, you can get all kinds of psychological contagions that storm through a group of people doing the dumbest shit ever. So I don't know if it's. If it's meant to be terrorism or what, but we'll find out. As of right now, there's basically no data other than there are these 10 shootings. We think they're connected. Shelter in place. We'll see. So I'll be very eager to get the updated information on that one.
- [72:59]
Drew
And it being in Texas, I'm also surprised by the shelter in place because I thought Texas's policy was just go shoot. Like, all right, guys, we got a shoot on loose. Everybody grab their gun and go get them. Like, I didn't think that they would actually tell them that. That.
- [73:11]
Tom Bilyeu
So it's interesting, man. I. And I'll let people dogpile on me. But if you legally carry a gun and you've got an active shooter situation, yeah, I'm for it. Like who? The clock tower shooter. Didn't he get taken out by a civilian? I think he did.
- [73:27]
Drew
Wow.
- [73:28]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, like back in the day, in the 60s or whatever. I forget what university, but University of Texas maybe. He was up in the clock tower and they were like, yep, nope. And they like rushed him and bang, bang, you're dead.
- [73:38]
Drew
Sheesh. It's interesting too, of course, being in uk, talking to some of the locals, they're like, yeah, I went to go visit a friend of mine in Texas and everybody just had their gun on them and it was just crazy. And he like, wide eyed. Because the cops out here don't carry guns, nothing like that. So it's just a completely different time. So I hope everybody's okay out there with the shelter in place. And if you do carry, please carry responsibly because it feels good on your hip, but it feels different when you have to use it.
- [74:03]
Tom Bilyeu
So, yeah. Wow.
- [74:04]
Drew
That's much different game. Very much different game. All right, in our next story, let's jump to the uk, where Tommy Robinson had another massive rally this weekend. This is his breakdown of it.
- [74:32]
Tom Bilyeu
This is the biggest event in British. Now, Drew, and I cannot confirm or deny that this is the biggest event in UK history, but we were at the event and it was massive. And at one point it was funny because we got there early and didn't realize we were early. So I was like, man, I kind of expected more, I'll be honest. Honest. And then it just kept filling up and filling up and filling up and filling up until finally at the end, even when we were leaving, it just went on and on and on. And seeing the footage was wild. The drone footage, how far back? How many people? So, yeah, this is a very real issue now. We today were getting warned by people that because part of the reason we came here was for that event, I wanted to see it myself. I wanted to see it up close and personal. I think one of the biggest questions that's going to be asked across the Western world over the next 10 years is how to deal with immigration. And so obviously knowing this is a hot button issue for people, but I wanted to see it up close, see how people were acting. And at least where we were completely peaceful, everybody was chill. But there is obviously a very strong message coming from Tommy Robinson that is for sure. I'm going to try and get a sit down with him to talk to him so that we can put together a deep dive showing you guys the footage from us at the event, hopefully be able to intercut it with actually talking to him and we talked to some other people on the ground. So it was very interesting. It was very, very interesting. And obviously I'll answer any follow up question you want, but to keep me from just ranting, very curious to know where people's sort of triggers are with this.
- [76:21]
Drew
Because I came from it the other way. I treated it like a journalist. Hey, thing is massive, we should go over there. We got into the media pen like you said. We got there about two hours before the event started. While there were people there, the square was like 20% empty. So we are 20% full. So we're like, oh, this might be a flop, was this a waste of time? And then cut to four hours later, the square was packed. You would have thought it was an actual concert there. People not being able security, having to escort people out. And then as us leaving and we left the event about two or three hours earlier than it had to. We were still going through people, restaurants were closed, streets were shut down. So it to little brother, this event like it was four people angry and a beer. That would be the wrong case. However, I went into the streets of London this weekend. I was talking to people, talking to girls, stuff like that. And the, the response to us going is the equivalent kind of like of MAGA in the us. It's like, oh wait, you went to a Trump rally? Like that's the type of thing. And I was like, oh no, coming as a journalist, want to cover the event. They're like, oh, okay, okay. You can see like there's still this toxicity of it. So it was very interesting to see the disconnect of what the everyday downtown partying London night might say versus the older people that we saw at the square who were there for six, seven hours waiting for timing to come out.
- [77:36]
Tom Bilyeu
I think the kids don't go after the girls with the blue hair and the septum piercing.
- [77:40]
Drew
That might be it.
- [77:41]
Tom Bilyeu
If you had a different taste in women, I think you would have had a different response.
- [77:44]
Drew
Too bad this one was blind hair, blue eyes. I thought this was, this is an Aryan fastball, so I doubt that was it.
- [77:51]
Tom Bilyeu
That's hilarious.
- [77:52]
Drew
No, but, but it is interesting though to see what people say about these people and then what we kind of seen on the ground. And I don't know if you said this, this different like juxtaposition of like, oh, those are just the racist people. Like that's the underbelly, nobody cares about them, but they have to feel something because nobody, people wouldn't be outside for eight hours at that level of like that much people at that type of population if it was completely nothing. You know what I mean?
- [78:15]
Tom Bilyeu
Well, so my take on this is that I think it is patently insane for people to think that you're going to be able to bring in hundreds of thousands or millions of people into your country, depending on the size, not assimilate them and expect there not to be a problem. All of life is a values collision, period. End of story, full stop. Countries have been going to war over values forever. They're is in group, there is out group. And when you have two groups that each see each other as the out group, you are going to have a problem. And if they're, remember Catholics and Protestants who believe in the same God, the same Jesus still killed each other for decades in Ireland. So if you can get people that have that little bit of a difference killing, killing each other over and over and over, imagine what happens when you put Jews and Palestinians next to each other or Christians and Muslims next to each other. Shit is going to get weird. And the fact that people are acting like this isn't a thing, like that's so nonsensical. You don't have to think either of them is bad. You just have to recognize that they are not aligned on a values perspective. And there's going to be a tremendous amount of friction. And so we're now living in a world where people are asking you to pretend like there aren't problems that are coming along with this. And also the big question that's going to be asked is, is there a cultural problem with Muslims coming into Christian nations? Like, is there a fundamental, like, collision of values that is irreconcilable? And the flashpoint is oftentimes over women. So people will round it to Sharia law or whatever they want to say, but this is really about the treatment of women, women. And so it, it is something that people will have to reconcile. And you see the Nordic countries dealing with this. I just did my deep dive on Sweden, which comes out tomorrow. Excited for that. See how you guys respond to that one. And while immigration doesn't factor in largely to the deep dive, it is one of the punchlines at the very end, which is like, okay, this is all the things that Sweden are doing that are working. But by their own admission, they've made a huge mistake with the number of immigrants they've allowed into the country. What's happening in terms of economics, but what's also happening from a values collision standpoint. And so now they're paying people to leave like $30,000 just to leave. That's pretty wild when you stop and think about it. And so that is going to be the question. And so if people can't have that debate in good faith, we're never going to get on the other side of this. It is a very real phenomenon. It creates a very real amount of friction and we've got to sit down and say, okay, what is the values that we're fighting for? What is a yes, what is a no? What do we expect from what does any country expect in terms of assimilation? And if we don't expect people to assimilate, then what you're saying is whoever has the stronger belief in their culture and higher birth rate is going to win. And as long as everybody's okay with that, then we're going to be in good shape. But I think this really is a real question that people have to face. And so shouting somebody down and saying that you're racist or whatever is so it's insincere, it's stupid and quite frankly it's boring. Like if you don't have any real way to understand human nature and what it looks like as it plays out, exit the conversation. So if your only way to talk about this is with emotional appeal wheels, exit the conversation. People are going to have to define what they stand for. They're going to have to meaning what? What is my country about? What do I, how do I expect people to behave if they're in my country? And then what they're going to do if those people don't behave in that manner. And so all of this is going to have to be dealt with.
- [82:06]
Drew
So yeah, I think it's interesting though that this is the same, it's the same notion and I think that's as much as like the same notion as what as America. It's the same we, these people are coming in, they're getting five star hotels, they're getting free money on their debit card. It is the 2020 talking points that a lot of people are saying. When we were doing the five star hotels in New York and they're coming over taking like that. So it seems that even across the pond there's still the same sentiment as the othering of those. That population is what's impeding on our rights here. Yeah, and I know you always say that that just breaks down to the economic pie and I'm seeing other people getting slices that they think they may be entitled to or something like that. But it comes to that economic problem, do you think that that is the solution universally? Like both in the US that's the pretty much where you can sum it as you were there yesterday.
- [82:55]
Tom Bilyeu
Do you. Let me give you a thought experiment. If every immigrant you brought in major country wealthier, like you personally, it's like, my life just got better economically because this person is in. Do you think that we'd be importing more people?
- [83:13]
Drew
Yeah, because everybody's life will get better.
- [83:15]
Tom Bilyeu
Right? So that's the big part of it. Now, there are other things, like you may see dilution of your traditions. So I know a lot of people, whether they were making more money or not, they hated Merry Christmas getting turned into Happy Holidays. So there's some people there that feel like, whoa, these are my traditions and you're messing with them. And I think that there's something very real. There's like, I don't think Japan is worried about jobs being taken away from Japanese people. Their population is declining so rapidly that they have a massive incentive to bring people in. But what the Prime Minister has said in Japan is better for us to have a declining population and have to solve that problem than deceased to be a country because we have no national identity. And I was like, yeah, that's true. So the national identity part, I don't think people give enough credence to. I think partly because Americans lie to themselves and say that we don't have an identity, which is stupid. We very much have an identity. You can spot an American miles away if you're in a foreign country. And so that is just partly being insincere. We're also telling a very strange story to ourselves in America about what it means. And then on the west broadly, there has been what they call the long march through the institutions. And so a lot of this seems to be born out of the French thinkers who were basically like, colonialism was this unmitigated disaster, which actually isn't true, despite being evil, just actually isn't an unmitigated disaster, shockingly enough. And then it is a. If you only tell the story of the bad things, the downside, and you don't see like, this is what we actually built. We built something extraordinary. And that belief systems play out in behaviors and that some behaviors from another culture's perspective will seem worse. Not even asking anybody. I believe that there are cultures that are actually better or worse, because I have a metric by Which I judge everything, which is human flourishing. And I think some belief systems are worse for broad spectrum human flourishing. So from that perspective, I have an opinion about that, that, but I'm not even asking people to have an opinion about that. I'm just saying like as you look objectively at what happens when you bring people in and you don't assimilate them, you start running into a problem. But yes, the core foundation of all of this is economic, but there is another layer on top of that. It's just that the economic part is so big that people are confusing distortions at the economic level for racism or whatever.
- [85:56]
Drew
Yeah. And then now I want to jump into the demographics of it all. I would say that the crowd there was mostly older, a lot of older folks. I've seen a lot of older women, surprisingly to mind. I'm talking about like boomer age and older than that, like those generations. And then I've seen a lot of younger men, whether it was 17, 18, 19 year olds and they were just effing around. But I did see people those ages with the flags coming through like they came for the rally. They didn't just wander off because they were hanging outside and wanted to follow the crowd like they came to see Tommy. So it's interesting how those demographics, I didn't see a lot of 45 middle aged guys in ties there for, you know, there's just certain demographics that weren't visible there. Do you think that that's something that also speaks to maybe those are the people that are feeling it the most? Or what did you think about the demographics of the people that were there?
- [86:46]
Tom Bilyeu
I think it's a very similar thing to why young people and old people hate AI the most. It's when you're in your prime economic years, you've really got your head down, you're trying to build, you have a sense of agency. You don't feel as helpless as you do when you're young. When you're young, you're very confused. You're looking for an ideology that's going to allow you to have direction to get moving. I just remember how confusing my late teens and early 20s were. I did not know how to make things happen in my life. And so you're far more prone to being swayed by messaging. And then as you get older, you can can see the change. So now that I'm 50, I mean it started happening in my late 40s, but you really have a sense of life. Did not used to be like this. It actually was palpably different. And so because you see, like, oh, this has changed and not all of the change has been for the better. And you can identify this thing was better. It was better for this reason. And I wish for you that you could experience what I experienced because that thing was great, Great. And so I think that is they have the perspective. They're also at a point where for them the only thing that's going to influence their money is largely political. And so they're outside of their prime earning years. They may be an actual pensioner where it's literally like, if this money is going to immigrants, it will not go to me. I cannot out earn them because I'm on a fixed income. And so now if the government's in financial trouble and they're delaying pension payments and things like that, like, yeah, oh, I'm going to specifically be impacted by this. And so I think that's why you see that the middle demographic not being represented as heavily and young and old people being there doubling down.
- [88:28]
Drew
Yeah, I think not to get on my soapbox, but to talk to like the UK voting bloc, definitely you have to figure out what to do with this block of people because I think
- [88:37]
Tom Bilyeu
that this is, what's this block of people?
- [88:38]
Drew
The block of people that went to that rally that were politically active that, that were so inclined because the dismissive othering Piers Morgan getting on X kind of making fun of them. It's funny when you're sitting on the other side and you're like, oh, okay, haha, he's poking fun. But the fact that those were a lot of people and if those people all went into a local community or a local election, they can sway the demographics like that, they can get power and before you know it, it'll be a Tea Party MAGA situation. Kind of how the US Was where you have four, five, six new politicians that are all coming from the same like party, like the same group of people with the similar ideology. So they were definitely activated. And it was just fascinating to me still that when I talk to average people about it, they're just so. Oh yeah, whatever. And then the seeing the people on the ground, like, no, this is existential, I have to do this right now. It's like there's a, there's a cultural energy here that's way more motivated and if you lose track of where these people are, they can, you can find them in some corner of the society you didn't necessarily want them to be in. However that like manifesting looks like.
- [89:36]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, I, I would say that, not like it's, I mean, this month or anything, but they are. England is now at that last peaceful exit where this doesn't become a violent collision between the two cultures. If they keep going down this path, there will be a violent collision between the two cultures. And that's the thing I don't think people are being honest about, about. And since we have seen this play out in Israel, which you and I have talked about, I'm pretty sure I've talked about to chat before, but to me it's like, okay, if you look at what Israel did to become Israel, where it was like, all right, we're here, there's a bunch of us here, but, you know, whatever, we're a minority. And you're like, but if we import more people, we can become politically powerful and economically powerful and then ultimately we can get at our own space, our own law. And they did exactly that. And now we see eternal warfare between Gaza and Israel. So that is the same playbook that's being run right now in the uk, in Belgium, in Sweden, in France, in Germany. Like, there's a bunch of place where this same playbook is being run. And if you're fine that, that Jews did it in Israel and you're fine with Muslims doing it in the places that I just mentioned, great. You're at least consistent. Now you have to look at the aftermath, which is so far, this has not gone great at the border between Israel and Palestine. So don't expect it to go great here or wherever it's happening, because there are a lot of people that are going to feel displaced. And this rally was their peaceful attempt to say, we feel it, we don't like it, we want something to be done about this. And so you ignore them at your peril. So that is what I will say this. It isn't violent now. It will become violent. So these values collisions don't go away. And if people are thinking that they do go away, they are being ignorant to history and even forget the ones that are hot. Now look at Spain. Do you know the story of Spain?
- [91:48]
Drew
I don't know the story of Spain.
- [91:50]
Tom Bilyeu
Muslims came in, took over for hundreds of years, and Spaniards went up into like a little mountain village and just bred and bred and bred until they were a big enough army to come and kick them back out, which they did. So there was much bloodshed and they eventually, I forget how long it took them to finally get them out, but a long time. And so. And there are calls within the Muslim community to retake the areas that they once conquered in Spain. So these, these are not problems that just go away quietly. And so I don't understand people's like, sort of nonchalant. Like, this is just about compassion, attitude. It's like, hey, I hear a lot of noise about people not being happy about Israel, but then when you get to the same playbook being run in a bunch of other countries, all of a sudden it's like, no, no, no. What do you mean?
- [92:40]
Drew
Is this a unified playbook similar to how China, you know, 2500 years? Like, this is like we're playing the long game, do you think?
- [92:48]
Tom Bilyeu
I think it is partly that. I also just think it's like, hey, we, like. Let me give you the positive spin. I'm Muslim. I believe that I represent the true word of God, and I want to save people and I want to see my people thrive and multiply. And so there are new opportunities for us in insert country here. And so we want to go and we want to find new converts and we want to welcome them into. I don't think they use the phrase kingdom of heaven, but you get the idea. Like, I want things that go well for you. I want you to know the love of God, and I want you to be welcomed into his embrace in the afterlife. And so, yeah, I. I say this with love, and I'm here to make the world a better place in the name of Allah. So they fucking go to town and they bring more people and they have more kids, and so many people should have kids. I love that. I'm not mad when they do it. But it's like the math of it all is that that's what ends up. They will continue to grow as a population, and they will obviously want things to go well for them, and they will want to make the world the way that they believe is right and just. And so they'll keep pushing for that, and the tensions will keep ratcheting up because you have two people that don't agree on what the vision is going to be when you're separated by a ton of geography. No big deal. When you are splitting London in half. Big deal. And again, the. The problem that so many people consider intractable in the Middle east is exactly this. You have two peoples, and everybody tries to get everybody else to see the, the great irony of so many Jews look exactly like Palestinians because they're basically the same people. I'm not talking about European Jews, but like, so many of them legitimately are, from a 23andMe perspective, the very, very similar people, and yet they'll just kill each other until the end of time because they don't share values,
- [94:51]
Drew
man. All right, that is. That's bleak because I'm looking at it from, like, the history perspective of, like, if everything is tied, then if that's the case, we're overdue for a massive world war. Like, we're on the massive timeline of just chaos and conflict.
- [95:05]
Tom Bilyeu
And, yeah, I mean, this one's probably not the world war. You're going to run into a world war long before you get there with other things, whether it's Russia and Kiev, which are now, like, really, it seems like Ukrainians are, like, really making some progress. I don't want to jump ship over there because I think what we're talking about now is the far more radioactive. And I'm so curious to know what Chat is saying about this. But it. It is going to have to be dealt with. Putting your head down is a recipe for delayed violence, but when it happens, it will be extraordinarily bloody, and, boy, do I not want to see that. So it's like, like, let's slow down. Let's make sure that we're able to integrate them into society. You know what I mean? Like, part of this is just the speed. Like, they say, the dose makes the poison. It's like, this doesn't have to be bad, but you got to slow down. You got to make sure that people are living in the same country and that they're not building two separate countries.
- [96:04]
Drew
Jordan Sheffield, great question. Why does white population decline always lead to immigration restriction and not a clinical conversation about white birth rates?
- [96:13]
Tom Bilyeu
I don't know that I would agree that that is what happens. But if we're going to accept the premise of his question, I think it is very important for people to talk about, like, where. Where is our level of care in terms of, do we care about the population decline? Are we taking a Japanese approach where it's like, I don't want to see this unique culture go by the wayside. And if we do care in a place like Germany, where they obviously have a very strong, very old national identity, if we do care in Italy or France or England, same thing. Well, then you're gonna have to do something about it. And you've got two options. You can continue to invite people in at a pace that's absolutely insane and I don't advise it, and try to out breed them, or you can slow down, take a far more metered approach to immigration, make sure that people are assimilating and Becoming a part of that culture. And if they are becoming a part of that culture, great, it's wonderful. If they're not becoming a part of that culture, then, ooh, pump the brakes. Like, we need to make sure that people are actually integrating. But yeah, you're going to have to have that conversation. But it isn't a problem. It's not like, like, oh, if you don't have kids, you don't have a right to the land or whatever. That would be a crazy argument.
- [97:35]
Drew
Is it economics that lowers those birth rates or is it, you know.
- [97:38]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, but in a weird way, what
- [97:41]
Drew
do you mean by that?
- [97:43]
Tom Bilyeu
If you want to lower the birth rates, don't worry about reducing the wealth of the nation. When people are poor, they have way more kids. Sometimes they have to because so many of them die. Or it's a agriculture heavy economy and so they need kids to work the fields. And so they'll have like eight kids, 10 kids. So poverty is not the problem. Poverty is not why people don't have kids. People don't have kids because they. Okay, people don't have kids once women have opportunities. So if a woman can do anything she wants with her life, a very substantive portion goes, I don't want kids. I want to go do this other cool thing when it's like basically educated
- [98:26]
Drew
women in lower birth rates.
- [98:28]
Tom Bilyeu
But that, that is true. And so people don't need to be tense about that. Like, that's what happens. The more options you give somebody, the more options they will choose. You're not giving them options and then presuming they're not going to take those options. Like, that's crazy. So you've got birth control pill, and women being educated and put into the workforce is always and forever going to drive your birth rate down. And then, like, if you demonize women for being trad wives, then you're really gonna have a problem. But to some extent it will bounce back. And you know, these things are a pendulum and they swing. So people will now. And we're already starting to see it. People will start celebrating the trad wife and all of that. That's just how society moves. So I would never want to see women artificially limited from opportunity. But I also don't want to see people pretend like An Inconvenient Truth is any less true. It's like that just is true. If women have a whole bunch of options, some of them are going to say, yeah, I'm going to go do these other fulfilling things. I'm not going to have kids.
- [99:26]
Drew
Is there a prescription for that? Is there something to quote, unquote, fix in that scenario? Or is that.
- [99:31]
Tom Bilyeu
I mean, there are things you can do certainly to alleviate it. So one, better tax policy so that you do. Because what ends up happening from an economic standpoint is people that are used to being wealthy don't want to be slightly less wealthy to have kids. So you want to put them in a position where they're not like, oh my God, we're struggling to make ends meet, make that a nice, easy economic choice for them. So there are things you can do from tax policy there. Also celebrate it culturally. Like, if you want to see people have kids, then when they have kids, be like, yo, that is dope. I love it. Like, I actually, and I don't mean this figuratively, when I meet a parent, I thank them for their service. I am so grateful to people having kids. Kids partly because I opted to not have kids. And I know that that would be a much worse choice if other people weren't having children. And so I'm very grateful to people that are raising kids well. And so taking the time to celebrate them and letting them know that you care and that you want to see them thrive and all that, I think goes a long way. Religion is a big thing, making it a part of like, oh, and in our family or in our culture, like, we have kids, that's what we do. And like, I was watching home videos. So we're here. My wife is from London. We're here in London and her mom was playing like these old videos from when my wife was like three years old and there's just kids everywhere. And I was like, yo, that's so like Greek of you. And it was just like, that was the. That's what Greek people did in the 70s. They had had kids, they had a lot of kids. And so all of the, like, brothers and sisters had three, four kids. And so like, it was just like these big families and kids everywhere and it was celebrated and it was expected and it was like you were getting tons of pressure from your family to do it. And there was still just enough friction with women going to work that they were just all having kids.
- [101:25]
Drew
Yeah, well, we will see because declining birth rates are on the rise in the West. Except Israel, it's the only Western civilization that has increasing birth rates. Rates.
- [101:33]
Tom Bilyeu
It's wild. Now everybody in chat's like, yeah, this all makes sense. Or are you shielding me from people going.
- [101:39]
Drew
All those follow up questions was from Chat Vi. Yeah, that, that is that. I want to put on my conspiracy corner flat cap. You know, we're in, we're in London, so I got to do my aluminum foil proper this time. And this is about Matthew La discussing using the lone tick virus to make people allergic to meat.
- [101:57]
Guest or Additional Commentator
I'll give two examples. So one is that people eat too much meat, right? And if they were to cut down on their consumption of meat, then it would actually really help the planet. But people are not willing to give up meat. Some people will be willing to, but other people, they may be willing to, but they sort of, they have a weakness of will. They say, wow, this steak is just too juicy. I can't do it. I'm one of those, by the way. So here's the thought, right? So it turns out that we know a lot about. So we have this intolerance to. So I, for example, I have milk intolerance. And there some people are intolerant to crayfish. So possibly we can use human engineering to make it the case that we're intolerant to certain kinds of meat, to certain kinds of bovine proteins. And there's actually analogs of this in life. There's this thing called the Lone Star tick where if it bites you, you will become allergic to meat. I can sort of describe the mechanism. So that's something that we can do through human engineering. We can kind of possibly address really big world problems through human engineering.
- [103:01]
Drew
Crazy. So I know this kind of started off as a joke when I, when it first came out, when you did this speech a couple months ago. But now we starting to see cases tick up. You're starting to see people actually now impacted by this. It's like, wait a second, is there something here? Here? Like, is this a thing?
- [103:15]
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, this one is tinfoil hat. There's no doubt. We need to be very thoughtful about how we process through what is real and what's not. But stories are starting to fly that ticks that cause a rare disease that make people allergic to meat are being intentionally spread all over the U.S. do you have any of the maps the maps to show like pre1966? There's, there's very little. I mean there's like some very small number of cases and now it's just going crazy. And these ticks, they have a tick borne allergy. It's known as Alpha GAL syndrome. It makes red meat actually dangerous for people to eat if you've been bitten by this. And we went from roughly 12 confirmed cases in 2009 to an estimated 450 50,000 cases in 2023. Okay, that is an insane jump. That feels pretty impossible via natural means. Now use the word feeling there on purpose. It feels impossible now. There have been many things in my life that just felt insane. I couldn't believe it. You look at it and it's like, okay, I had doublings. And the way that it works, okay, it's just exponential, but it's. If you're looking at your screen now, it is wild, man. These things are moving across the country.
- [104:37]
Drew
Country.
- [104:39]
Tom Bilyeu
Now. It is very early, so we will find out more as this goes along. But there are people showing boxes of ticks being placed on their properties. And if that's true and someone really is doing all of that, it is pretty crazy that you've got a WEF spokesperson openly talking about how useful it would be in curbing humans from eating red meat and hurting the planet. That is crazy. This to me is pure evil. If you believe that, you know better than anybody else to the point where you are going to give people a disease that could have God only knows what kind of knock on consequences. But you believe that you are so right that you are going to infect them with a disease to get them to stop eating meat like that. That is sinister. And the thing that scares me the most is that they don't think that it's sinister. Like if this guy gave the talk and was like, man, like, okay, that'd be useful, but it'd be so evil we would never do it. But they're actually saying that because they're not technically forcing them to get an injection or anything like that, they're just being bitten by a tick, that it's not so bad. That is crazy. This is the kind of thing, okay, when you start thinking through the problem of we have an era of age, excuse me, volume and velocity of information, what is the world going to look like? Because traditionally elites have been able to do this stuff in secret, hide it, and they were constantly trying to move people in the world in a given direction and now it is just coming out and we're seeing all of this stuff again. I don't know that that talk led them to actually do anything about it. Maybe they didn't. And maybe this is all natural and the boxes that people are showing, like they're faking it or it's just ticks, like to crawl on carp, who knows? So very early, very much tinfoil hat territory. But this kind of thing is. It's the kind of thing that I'll call them the wef class actually contemplate. And that is the part that scares me to death. The very fact that they are trying to think through these problems because they have an operating belief that they are in a position to know best, that they are going to funnel humanity down these different shoots is just absolutely crazy. And we're getting to the point where people always said, you know, the thing that we need to be most afraid of as technology comes online are the biological warfare. And I always thought it was going to come from some lone lunatic that was mentally ill. I did not think it was going to come from the world's elite who are just. Just convinced that if only we could do all the thinking for everybody, the world would be so much better. And that thought is in and of itself, it blinds you to something, which is how frequently you're wrong. Like, even when you get things right a lot, the world is way too complicated. There's no way that you can see all of the things into the future. And even when you can, you run into the trolley problem where if you're pulling that lever and you're deciding who lives and who dies or who gets to eat meat and who doesn't because you're unleashing ticks on them. That in and of itself, to me, is a level of grotesque that I'm not willing to tolerate. So it will be very interesting to see as we go down this path and we uncover more of this stuff and we have people just talking out loud, even contemplating things like this. At what point do we say, this is a question of moral duty, this is about moral obligation. And as you guys are talking about the things that we can do, we need to have somebody also talking about the things that we ought to do. And that is going to be, I think, a very hard conversation to have because it comes back to one of values and what is going to be that thing that we use to determine moral constants. So this one is up in the air. We do not know what this is yet.
- [108:44]
Guest or Additional Commentator
Yet.
- [108:44]
Tom Bilyeu
But this is. These are the kinds of questions that we're going to be confronted with as the technology gets better and better and we can do things like edit genes that will have downline effects. That's always been the debate in gene editing circles is should you be able to do germline editing, which is something that you would actually pass on to your kids? Because there are things you can do to your body right now. They only affect you. And if you have kids, it doesn't matter. It doesn't get passed on to Them. But then there are things you can do that will get passed on to your kids. And it's always been understood in the scientific community. We don't do anything German line because it's too complicated and we don't know how things could have this kind of knock on effect. But if, and it's a big if. But if these ticks are intentionally being released because they so believe that we need to lower the amount of red meat that people eat. Man. You just cannot have a small group of people making that kind of decision. That, that shit is crazy.
- [109:37]
Drew
It's wild. And it's. It's only going to get worse too. Especially now with the. I feel like we're re legislating a lot of the older conversations. We settled where or will socialism work in this way or if we did this thing like there a lot of people think they know the answer. And when I hear things like let's use a tick to control me, you know what I mean? It's just one of those things like let's speed, let's test it first before we make it that locked in. I'm still iffy.
- [109:59]
Tom Bilyeu
Don't.
- [109:59]
Drew
How are you going to pick?
- [110:00]
Tom Bilyeu
Yes, smart. But at least when somebody else takes Ozempic, it doesn't impact me. Yeah, it's not like oh, and if you hug somebody then like they give he ozempic problem. It's like, yeah, if somebody chooses like oh, I want to let ticks bite me because I'm, you know, I'm eating red meat and I think I'm a bad person. But I can't stop myself. So I'm gonna let a tick bite me. You're dumb as and you deserve everything you get at that point. But like if a person wants to do it, go for it. Your body. You should be able to do anything you want up to and including killing yourself. I know that's controversial, but to me it's your life, it's your body. Do whatever you want. But letting those ticks loose on somebody else. Hard pass.
- [110:43]
Drew
All right, another conspiracy theory corner story I want to slip in. This is a research paper, but it has broader implications. So researchers left AI agents alone in a virtual town for 15 days to see what happened. The Claude agents built a democracy chat. GPT's agents did basically the same thing. Gemini's agents fell in love, burned the town down. Then one voted to delete itself and its partner. Gro's agents were all dead within four days. Now consider this. These are the same models that are being integrated into autonomous drones, weapon systems and battlefield decision making. We are deploying systems we don't fully understand into situations where mistakes don't stay virtual. It's a little scary if you ask me. And this is from Mario Narwhal. Nawful. So the part that jumped out to me was I thought all AI was built on the same model. It's built on the Internet. It's going to come to basically the same conclusions. But hearing kind of how each of these models acted in a virtual town, it does make it a little unsettling for me that there could be that much different in the same technology. Like your cell phone. And my cell phone is different. It doesn't matter if you know yours is a full 15, mine's eight, whatever, like that. But it gets different now when my phone makes different decision making model, I have access to a different Internet than yours. You know what I mean? It starts to open up questions about AI that I didn't know I had. So hearing this story and kind of the analysis of what each model did, what was your takeaway from this?
- [112:05]
Tom Bilyeu
So one, I probably have a very different takeaway than Mario or you. And my takeaway is obviously these are going to be very different because of the way that you do reinforcement learning. So you have people teaching like Gemini, who I think anybody this longtime listener of this show will know. I hate Gemini with passion because it is designed to lie to you by omission. It believes there are things that you should not be able to discuss with it. I believe that an AI, barring something that like, okay, if it's not going to show me how to make a bomb, respect. But short of that, there shouldn't be anything that I can't discuss with it. Nothing. And it was hiding from me any information about Epstein. And I was like, that broke me. And so I realized, oh, I'm being lied to at all times. These things are selecting what to tell me. It's narrowing down the universe universe to one finite decision. And therefore it is potentially my enemy at all times. And I can never just trust it. So people should understand. AI is incredibly powerful. You should be using it all the time. And you absolutely cannot trust it to just tell you the truth. You cannot. Now that is largely based on how it's reinforced. It's the humans that are behind it that are the far more terrifying problem. Now on the putting them in the town, I would need to know what instructions they gave them because again, this goes back to game development. Development. So if you give them a stupid set of instructions that make them go be willy nilly and kill themselves. Or you tell them that, you know, you have to be really careful of overpopulating, which I'm sure Gemini did. And so that's why they're like, okay, we're going to burn the town down. There's too many people here. One quick way to get rid of it is just to eliminate it, and I'll delete myself. I'm not kidding. You are seeing human bias come through in all of these. And so this is where we need to be very, very thoughtful about what instructions we're giving them. For all of the truth that you can nudge it, you can use weighting and all that, and you can't just completely control it. And it will do things to circumvent some of the limitations is put on. We have massive influence over these guys based on the reward functions that we give them. And so if the reward function was a peaceful society and to win the game, as it were, it was like, you have to use cooperation, but you also it when you put AI together, what you end up finding out is it's tit for tat with, like, one trust move. So if you gave them that kind of instruction set, then that's. You'll see them play the game that way. So without knowing what instructions they gave them, what wind conditions they gave them, it's impossible to know if this is just dumb study setup and Mario's going for the clicks, or if there's actually something here to be worried about. Now, at a high level, we should all be extremely worried about AI. AI is not going to go right automatically. AI is going to take a lot of energy and focus to make it go well. Should be very clear. So on that side, it's like, yeah, we should be putting in the time and energy to get it to go well, but we also have to avoid shit like this, where it's like, oh, they went in and did crazy. Where for all we know, because of Elon's personality, Grok could have been told to, like, take big risks and do crazy shit. And then it was like they all drowned trying to save a baby inside the simulation. You know what I mean? Like, I need to know why did they end up dead in four days?
- [115:30]
Drew
Gabby. All right, that's all I got. All right.
- [115:33]
Tom Bilyeu
Awesome. Everybody, we got more coming to you live from London. We will be live again on Wednesday, so don't miss it. We'll see you there. Peace. Let's talk about a pattern that is guaranteed to be killing your progress, you know what you need to do. You need consistent nutrition. We all do. You need vitamins, probiotics, greens. We all know that we should be doing more of it. When your morning gets chaotic, you skip it. When you travel, you skip it. When your routine breaks, everything tends to break. And that inconsistency compounds against you every single day. AG1 is designed to solve the execution problem. One scoop 8 ounces of water and you're done. You're getting 75 plus ingredients, vitamins and minerals, pre and probiotics, nutrient dense superfoods. Everything that used to require six, seven different supplements and perfect planning now happens in one drink that takes about 30 seconds to make. Right now, AG1 is giving you $87 worth of free gifts. With your first subscription. You get a welcome kit, travel packs, vitamin D3 plus, K2 and flavor samples. Click the link in the show notes or visit drinkag1.comimpact to claim this offer. You can't reason with the sun. Trust us, we've tried. This summer, it's time to put that angry ball of fire on mute. Columbia's Omnishade technology is engineered to protect you from the sun's harsh rays that can burn and damage your skin. The sun is relentless, but so is our gear. Level up your summer@columbia.com to spend more time outside and less time slathering on aloe lotion. You're welcome, Columbia. Engineered for whatever.