Trump’s Venezuela Blockade: Oil Wars, China’s Gold Playbook, and the Real Threat to U.S. Power | The Tom Bilyeu Show

Summary

Podcast Summary

Podcast: Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
Episode: Trump’s Venezuela Blockade: Oil Wars, China’s Gold Playbook, and the Real Threat to U.S. Power
Date: December 18, 2025
Host: Tom Bilyeu

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Episode Overview

This episode of Impact Theory, hosted by Tom Bilyeu, takes a deep dive into current geopolitics, kicked off by Donald Trump’s dramatic move to blockade Venezuela. The conversation explores the complexities behind this headline, tying in broader themes such as U.S.-China power dynamics, the global oil economy, legal debates over executive power, and rising fears of extremism and anti-Semitism worldwide. The tone is critical, analytical, and skeptical, with Tom repeatedly urging listeners to look past immediate news cycles and question deeper motivations.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Blockade of Venezuela: What’s Really Going On?

• [01:00–03:17] The episode opens with Trump's statement on Truth Social regarding a "total and complete blockade" of Venezuela, citing oil theft, terrorism, and trafficking.
• Tom questions the true impetus behind this move, suggesting it may be a proxy conflict with China rather than a direct reaction to Venezuelan actions.
  • “When you get something like Venezuela, I feel like I’m being led around by the nose... Either they’re getting me to focus on the right thing but for the wrong reason, or... so they can do something else.” (Tom, 03:17)
• He introduces the idea of misdirection, likening geopolitical moves to magic tricks.

2. China’s Gold Playbook and the “Gold Corridor”

• [03:17–08:14] Tom explains how China is building influence in South America by establishing gold reserves—enabling nations to trust in gold rather than the yuan, and circumventing Western financial control.
  • “China is building what’s called the Gold Corridor all along South America to try to get people to see the yuan as being backed by gold... so all of those countries go, ‘okay, we’ll do business with you, because I don’t have to trust the yuan, I can trust the gold.’” (Tom, 05:20)
• The Venezuela situation could be viewed as the U.S. attempting to block China from gaining further regional leverage.

3. Is a Blockade Legal? The Foreign Terrorist Organization Playbook

• [08:14–09:54] The show discusses whether Trump can legally blockade Venezuela, referencing Brian Cranstein’s statement that it’s an “act of war” and would require Congressional approval.
• Tom explains the legal gray area: by labeling nations or groups as “foreign terrorist organizations,” the president gains additional unilateral powers, which may be strategically exploited.
  • “That’s why Trump keeps declaring them as foreign terrorist organizations, because we have a totally different playbook for that.” (Tom, 08:38)

4. Will This Lead to War? Power, Proxy, and Hemispheric Divides

• [09:54–12:25] The discussion shifts to whether the situation might escalate. Tom maps out the U.S. view of giving up influence in the East (Asia to China), but reasserting dominance in the Western Hemisphere, aiming to isolate players like Maduro by cutting off support from China and Russia.
  • “I’m currently mapping this as a hemispheric draw where... China’s going to take the east, but we are going to put the hammer down on the West.” (Tom, 09:56)

5. Morality, Realpolitik, and the Return of Spheres of Influence

• [12:26–21:22] Tom openly questions the morality of “might makes right,” reflecting on America’s military dominance and the messy ethics behind resource control.
  • “The strong will do as they will and the weak will suffer as they must because Venezuela can't touch us militarily.” (Tom, 20:38)
• The dialogue connects historical U.S. foreign interventions to the current strategy, contrasting resource grabs with Cold War-style ideological battles.

6. U.S. vs. China: Drawing the Global Containment Line

• [21:22–23:57] The hosts identify a new containment strategy—letting China consolidate the East, while the U.S. sets hard boundaries in the West, seeing Venezuela as a test case.
  • “You have to draw a line somewhere. So where are you going to draw a line on the map? East, West, makes all the sense in the world given how hard it is to cross oceans…” (Tom, 22:25)

7. ISIS, Extremism, and Rising Anti-Semitism

• [23:57–30:00] Shifting topics, the Bondi Beach attack (linked to ISIS) is discussed, highlighting the cyclical return of extremist threats and the dangerous rise in anti-Semitism amid global unrest.
  • On historical patterns: “When things go economically awry, Jews start getting killed en masse. Period. End of story... this is why I’m like, if you find yourself saying the Jews are the problem—stop.” (Tom, 29:16)
• The hosts caution against conflating Islam, Islamism, and extremism, noting the nuanced need for cultural and religious reforms.

8. Media Framing: The Vanity Fair Profile and Susie Wiles

• [38:29–44:44] Vanity Fair releases a profile implying chaos in the Trump White House, focusing on Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.
  • Notable quote from Wiles: “[Trump] wants to keep on blowing boats up until Maduro cries uncle.” (38:56)
  • Tom warns about selective framing in print journalism versus more context-rich formats like podcasts.
  • “People are really trapped inside their frame of reference... even though you did say that twice, he was like, I couldn't hear you because my mental model was so [set].” (Tom, 40:50)

9. Market Bubble: The Shiller PE Ratio Hits 40

• [46:51–53:32] Tom details the significance of the Shiller PE Ratio crossing 40, signaling a potential market bubble on par with 1929 and 2000.
  • “Crossing 40 is historically insane…The Schiller PE greater than 40 has occurred [only during] the Great Depression... the dot com crash, and now.” (Tom, 52:27)
• Cautions advice: Maintain cash reserves, dollar-cost average into broad baskets, and don’t expect to “beat” the market unless you’re a top-tier quant like Ray Dalio.
  • “Dollar cost average in... the odds that you get the timing right are effectively zero unless you are Ray Dalio levels [of expertise].” (Tom, 53:33)
  • “If you have to move back into your parents’ basement or get five friends in a studio apartment... literally do that.” (Tom, 54:10)
• On gold and safe havens: “Same thing—be paranoid. Dollar-cost average in. Assume that you can’t see the future clearly.” (Tom, 55:18)
• Regular disclaimer: Not financial advice.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “When you get something like Venezuela, I feel like I’m being led around by the nose... misdirection is literally the game.”
  (Tom, 03:17)

• “The strong will do as they will and the weak will suffer as they must.”
  (Tom, 20:38)

• “If you find yourself saying the Jews are the problem—stop. Like, you are falling into a historical pattern that is so, like, repetitive, it’s ridiculous.”
  (Tom, 29:16)

• “Crossing 40 is historically insane... there is no historical precedent where buying at these levels led to strong long-term returns.”
  (Tom, 52:27)

• “The thing that I want is to know how the world actually works. This is why I call it the only belief that matters—believing you can get better at something if you put time and energy into it.”
  (Tom, 44:44)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Trump's Venezuela Blockade Explained: 01:00–03:17
• China’s Gold Playbook & Geopolitics: 03:17–08:14
• Blockade Legality & Terrorist Organization Strategy: 08:14–09:54
• Major Power Shifts and Hemispheric Divide: 09:54–12:25
• Morality & Might in Geopolitics: 12:26–21:22
• US–China Power Split Analysis: 21:22–23:57
• ISIS, Bondi Beach, and Extremism: 23:57–30:00
• Rising Anti-Semitism & Historical Patterns: 30:00–38:29
• Media Framing and Susie Wiles Profile: 38:29–44:44
• Market Bubble Warning, Shiller PE Ratio: 46:51–53:32
• Personal Financial Resilience Advice: 53:32–55:18

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Tone & Final Thoughts

Tom Bilyeu’s approach is critical and questioning—his advice is to remain deeply skeptical of political posturing, be wary of media framing, and prepare pragmatically for economic uncertainty. He draws on history, systemic cycles, and the underlying motivations of power players, refusing simplistic narratives and urging personal agency through financial literacy and critical thinking.

The episode provides a packed, engaging analysis for listeners seeking to understand the underlying forces shaping today’s headline-grabbing events—for those wanting to “see the world clearly” and not just react to it.

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

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[A]

Trump orders a blockade around Venezuela. Many are calling it an illegal act of war that should require congressional approval, but certainly hasn't gotten it. The Bandai beach massacre seems to be confirmed to be tied to isis, sparking more concerns about Islamist extremism and unwarranted prejudice against Muslims in general. Susie Wiles new Vanity Fair interview has people wondering if she's turning on Trump or is just a shockingly candid person. And the Shiller PE ratio just crossed 4:40 for only the third time in history, signaling that we are in a massive bubble going to be breaking out for you guys. What exactly? That is what it means.

[B]

Well, there's one way to drive the economy and that is stealing other countries oil. And that is what Donald Trump wants to do. I'm sorry, we're getting. We're going for fentanyl or cocaine or something. What was the COVID story? Yeah, I forgot what it is. But let's start with the true social post because I do feel like Trump is being very bombastic here. We know that this is his shocking. Yeah.

[A]

Wait, what?

[B]

So I don't necessarily think that everything he's saying on this tweet is literal, but that is going to jump the start of the conversation of Izzy declaring war basically on Venezuela. So this is from Trump on Truth Social. Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest armada ever assembled in the history of South America. It will only get bigger. That's what she said. And the shock to them will be nothing like they will have ever seen before until such time as they return to the United States of America. All the oil Land and other assets will that they previously stole from us. The illegitimate Maduro regime is using oil from the stolen oil fields to finance themselves. Drug, terrorism, human trafficking, murder, and kidnapping. All that's missing is Epstein. For the thief of all our assets, for the theft of all our assets and many other reasons, including terrorism, drug smuggling, smuggling and human trafficking, the Venezuela regime has been designated a foreign terrorist organization. That's crazy. Therefore, today I am ordering a total and complete by by blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers going into and out of Venezuela. The illegal aliens and criminals in that Maduro regime has been sent to United States during the week, and the Biden administration are being returned to Venezuela at a rapid pace. America will not allow criminals, terrorists, or other countries to rob, threaten, or harm our nation, and likewise will not allow a hostile regime to take our oil, land, and any other assets, all of which must be returned to the United States immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

[A]

I try to always keep myself sober by reminding myself of when something becomes suddenly incredibly important. Was I thinking about that before? So, for instance, if somebody all of a sudden starts banging the drum about China, I'll be like, yes, China's been on my radar. It's part of my mental map of how the world works and what's going on in the great power conflicts right now. So cool that that's a part of my map. That would make sense for me to really get enthusiastic about and be like, this really is a problem. When you get something like Venezuela, I feel like I'm being led around by the nose where I'm like, okay, you're controlling the news cycle by doing this big thing there. But Venezuela wasn't on my radar. So either I was mismapping the conflicts in South America, Very possible. No problem. I'll update my mental model and I'll get into it. But I'm always trying to be really sober about, was this not on my radar? Because this wasn't a thing. He's got some other objective, and this is just spin, spin, spin. He's getting me to look at something either so that he can do something else. I used to study magic. Misdirection is literally the game. It's like, I want you to look over here, and I'm going to go do this really awkward thing over here, but you don't even notice it. And I know to be very paranoid whenever a politician is trying to get me to focus on something, because either they're getting me to focus on the right thing, but for the wrong reason. Or they're getting me to look at something totally unrelated so they can do something else. So when I map what's going on in South America, not as what he says, but as a proxy with China, where we're dividing the world in half, this is Thucydides trap playing out. And we go, okay, we can't have China having a relationship with South America. That China is building what's called the Gold corridor all along South America to try to get people to see that yuan as being backed by gold. That the reason that he's putting the gold into South America is so that all of those countries go, okay, we'll do business with you, because I don't have to trust the yuan. I can trust the gold. And the gold is actually here in our countries and we can get access to it and you don't control it in any meaningful way, then I'm like, oh, I get it. We're going into Venezuela now. I'm making a base assumption that Venezuela feels like an easy mark to Trump for some reason. Or he's more angry with them. Very possible that Maduro, if he's mapping Maduro as having messed with the 2016 election, which certainly he had truth something out about that previously. So if he hates Maduro, sees Maduro as an easy target, and that's part of his strategy to take back the Western hemisphere from Chinese influence, then I'm like, ah, okay, cool, this all makes sense. But when it's just like, this is all about the things he says it's about, I'm like, why all of a sudden Venezuela? So that's where I'm like, okay, it's entirely possible. I just need to learn more about, like, what happened? Did they actually steal land? I think that there is almost certainly going to come a day where tensions between the US And China escalate to the point that we kick out Chinese landowners of farms. And if they're near, like, these are all rumors, but rumors as to the motivation. But there are Chinese nationals buying land next to military bases and things like that, which seems very sus. So it's like I could fully see us saying, okay, we're going to buy these back at fair market value because we now have these certain restrictions. China has all kinds of restrictions on who can own what, including companies in China. So that certainly turnabout is fair play. So on that, I mean, look, it is certainly not crazy for a nation to say we're taking back our own resources. I get that. I think Africa's future is going to have to require that at least some sort of partnership where you stop getting strip mined for your resources and you start mining your own resources to sell finished product, which have way higher margins. So I could certainly see Africa finally coming to that realization. I've heard them talk about it, so I know it's on their radar, but they're not doing the things they would need to do. So anyway, during that process, they would have to nationalize things, presumably in the beginning, get people out other countries or at least push them down the supply chain so they can still be in the country. But you're going to be dealing with things that we've already processed and turned into this good, where you can be a partner with us, but you can't like own a controlling interest, for instance. So if that's what's playing out in Venezuela and they did us dirty in terms of they didn't compensate us fairly for all the investments that we had made, okay, I see how he could be annoyed with that. But the level that he's escalating to on this specific country, when I'm guessing that we've run into things like this before, just begs the question, is there something else But I fully want on the table. This could be. I am not a scholar on our relations with Venezuela, and so it could just be something that I am unaware of. But my politician is manipulating my gaze. Alarms are going off extraordinarily loudly.

[B]

And then this reads from Brian Cranstein, Trump calling a complete and total blockade of oil is actually an act of war. And declaring an act of war without Congress will lead to legitimate illegal initiation of hostilities. A president cannot legally start a blockade of another country of their own without a, a formal authorization for use of military force, AUMF, or a declaration of war. Neither exists for Venezuela.

[A]

Venezuela. So he's, he's a little bit wrong about this. So this is why Trump keeps declaring them as foreign terrorist organizations, because we have a totally different playbook for that. So that ultimately is what's going to have to be adjudicated is is he able to declare these groups foreign terrorist organizations so that he has a totally different set of powers? He's right in the absence of that, but they're running a totally different playbook. So if you want to stop Trump from doing the things that he's doing, you're going to have to go after his ability to declare them terrorist organizations. The Supreme Court just ruled on, on our soil. I believe we'd have to look up the recent ruling, but I'm pretty Sure. They just said, yeah, he can declare groups on our soil and as foreign terrorist organizations and thusly go after them in that way. This is all about the immigration, being able to boot people out effectively without normal due process. So this is where this is all going to get messy. This is all going to be playing out in the courts, but that's what they're going to have to check. Until then, he's just going to keep like all of a sudden the Girl Scouts of America because he doesn't like the ingredients in their cookie. They're terrorist organization. He's going to go after them. That is a joke, obviously, people, but that's his game.

[B]

Yeah. Do you think this escalates into for war?

[A]

Because I don't think so. But the way that. So again, I am currently mapping this, though I am very open to realizing I need to update my mental model. I'm currently mapping this as a hemispheric draw where we are saying, okay, we're going to have to give up on China in the east. And so China is going to take the east, but we are going to put the hammer down on the west. And so we're going to take this back. Once I think of what's happening right now as that this all begins, begins to make sense. So, no, I don't think it will escalate into war because if we're able to isolate Maduro from China and Russia, which is a question mark right now, to be honest, but if we can isolate him from China and Russia and just say, listen, we know you're going to move on Taiwan. We're not going to say shit about it, but you're not going to say shit about any of this, and we're going to take back the Western Hemisphere and this becomes the way that things settle down, Maduro will understand. I'm isolated. I don't have the deep pockets, the militaries that I need to help back me up. So I'm going to have to either leave and take whatever deal that I can get from Trump and just get out of town because he's serious and he's going to be going hard in the paint. He'll say whatever he needs to say to come in blockade. But the fact that Trump is doing it as a blockade tells me he does not want boots on the ground. Like, he's just going to keep taking your oil, keep taking your ships, make it impossible for them to get over to China, let you know we're in control. There are things that we want you to do. And if you start doing them, then we'll suddenly start not noticing that you're shipping oil to China. But if you don' doing whatever insert thing he wants done here, then we're going to keep going. We're hitting pause for a moment, but there's plenty more ahead, so don't go anywhere. 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Plus inventory management, international shipping processing returns, all handled automatically by systems that process millions of transactions. Turn your big business idea into reality with Shopify on your side. Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com impact. Again, go to shopify.com impact that's shopify.com impact. Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action. If you're the guy behind the guy, right? So you're not Trump, you're the guy whispering in Trump's ear and you're like, okay, we've done all these regime changes. It was always sort of imperialism light. You realize that's not popular anymore. We've got an America first base. You've got to find a way to keep them happy while still getting the control that you want, stroke, need. And so you run a new playbook and you're like, we never gave a shit about like having boots on the ground. That, that doesn't matter to us. We just want control. Then it's like, hey, we've got this new idea. Foreign terrorist organization, fly under the COVID of, this is about drugs and now just completely control the seas. I mean, this is me thinking out loud, so bear with me. But this is like the reverse of four decades since World War II. The promise that we made to the world was we're going to control your security policy so that we can effectively run the world. We're going to control your security policy and in exchange, we're going to patrol the seas. It's getting harder and harder to do that. And as drones become more and more the cheap weapon of choice of every guerrilla style group out there, patrolling the seas is probably just going to be way too expensive for one group to do. And so this is like sort of a reverse of that. Like, okay, we can't control it by making it safe, so we're going to go to hostile territories and be like, man, be a real shame if anything happened to this transit lane here. Like, God, it'd be a shame if the biggest military in the world was just like, fuck you. This is my oil tanker, thank you very much. Like, that's wild. And that's basically what we're doing now. No doubt. Do I have alarm bells going off for the world ought to be a moral place. Yes. So knowing, with the full caveat of me saying, hey, don't worry, my moral alarm bells are ringing, I am merely trying to think through the reality of what is happening and what side of this we want to be on. I don't know that I'm right, that that's what's happening, but interesting thought experiment that goes like this. We. We must remain the most dominant power in the world. As an American, you want that. You may not think you do because it's very pearl clutchy reserve.

[B]

Like for the reserve currency status, reserve.

[A]

Currency to be the ones that get to tell everybody else what to do. Like Drew. Oh, God, this is so weird having this conversation with you. Being the CEO is awesome because it's like, even though I. And I feel very comfortable making this statement, I outwork everybody in this company. No one wants to try to match me hour for hour. I just promise, however, if I want to take time off, I can take time off whenever the fuck I want. And the knowing that I'm in control, that I decide when yes, when no is its own, like, mental release valve. That's awesome. And I'm very aware of how powerful that is now. For the last 80 years, America has been that for the world, we're the yes or no. Like, it's the way that we want it. Not that we'll always be moral, but at least it's the way we want it. And so when you go, ooh, like, we could lose that. Mm, we're certainly losing it in the Eastern hemisphere. I don't see a path forward for America to continue to have influence like we had 10 or 15 years ago in the East. No way. Like, China's not going to stand for that. So unless Peter Zahan is right and China just literally collapses because of demography, they're going to be the regional power in the East. And so now we've got the world split in half, so we'll be able to boss people around in the west, but we just lost half of the globe, and that's going to create that escalatory rise between us that will be very reminiscent of the rise between capitalism and communism in the 80s. And so that will get dangerous. First of All. And then second, just everybody wants to be the boss. So America, I think, rightly, is not just going to go quietly into that good night because being pushed around by other countries sucks.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And so.

[B]

And we know we've been doing it, too.

[A]

Yeah. Like, imagine if another country could come into us and be like, hey, we don't like the way that you dealt with all of the. Let's say, when, if, if we end up kicking Chinese nationals out from owning farmland in America. Big if. But let's say that we did that at some point, if China felt some kind of way and they rolled up on the ports on the Pacific coast, we'd be like, this is an act of war.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

That would launch a thousand ships. Like, I mean that. But we're doing it to Venezuela. And Venezuela. Hey, ready for the quote again? The way the world works, the strong will do as they will and the weak will suffer as they must because Venezuela can't touch us militarily unless we're dumb enough to set foot on their shore. And then you can just guerrilla warfare us into poverty. But if we don't make that mistake, we can just stop all your ships. You're not going to, like, bro, 90 Blackhawks just, like, swirling around you, like, good luck.

[B]

Or they shut down airspace over there, too.

[A]

That's what I'm saying. So it's like when you're this level of militarily dominant, you can just tell people you're, this is how it's going to be and you're going to like it.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And so this is one of those where. Oh, God, like, it's icky. This whole thing is icky. And because.

[B]

No, I was gonna say, like, I. I understand the Chinese implication of taking Taiwan back because there's a national pride there. We were all together once. That's like us going after Alaska if Russia ended up keeping it in the deal or something. So I understand kind of historically why I can kind of squint my eye, close my eyes and say, okay, I understand why Russia wants Ukraine back. I can at least sort of, kind of justify it. But I feel like in this, America, Venezuela, this is Weapons of Mass Destruction 2.0. I feel like we're in another country that is resource heavy and we should just try to get that resources. Like, I don't understand what. I understand we're trying to fight China by saying this is our side of the court and we're trying to line up the field. But the only positive I see of us doing this is we're Getting resources from them and that country is losing their resources. I don't see any other historical tie. I don't see national security threats. And I'm just honestly not buying the whole. They're the hub of cocaine.

[A]

Yeah. It does not seem like they're the hub of shipping cocaine into the U.S. that's for sure. I do think the drugs are largely, not entirely, but largely a distraction. But again, when I map this as a US versus China, you don't have a choice. So if you're going to now whether Venezuela is the right battleground that I cannot speak to. I've not looked at this closely enough. But when I think, okay, you have to draw a line somewhere. So where are you going to draw a line on the map? East, West? Makes all the sense in the world given how hard it is to cross oceans. Cool. So you draw a line and you say we're going to. You obviously don't broadcast this, but you draw a line. You say we're going to let China to slowly take over Asia and we're just going to do very little to stop that. But on the west we're going to start building fortifications now. And so if you have somebody in your hemisphere that is partnering too closely with China, then you're going to do whatever you need to do to disempower them to get a pro America person in power in that government. And so that as far as I can tell, that's the play right now. They are trying to boot Maduro without putting boots on the ground, without doing traditional assassination techniques. But they've got a hit on him. So it's like, yeah, I mean this is one step removed. So that feels like exactly what's playing out. When I map it like that I'm like oh yeah, all every behavior makes sense. When I map it as anything else it leaves holes.

[B]

All right, let's jump down, down under, mate. Thoughts and prayers to the Bondi Bondi beach shooting and the victims. I saw one article is a 10 year old girl. She just got her face painted. Despicable news. Despicable things just happened on there. I was so sad. But Navida Croom has officially been charged with murder. He's a surviving suspect in the Sunday's mass shooting his father said was killed ice they claimed allegiance to ISIS earlier. Allegedly they were radicalized in the Philippines before moving to Australia to commit this act. This is wild. And on the backs of foreignly in Syria. ISIS just killed two military officials and a Syrian translator. So it seems like ISIS is coming Back like this is just so crazy. And it was on the first day of a Hanukkah celebration, so it seems very anti Jew coded. How do you feel about this mass shooting, terrorist attack?

[A]

Yeah, it's, it's brutal. And all of this is begging the question of where this is all going from. Is the battle against Islamist extremists going to dominate the next 10, 20 years? So yeah, I don't know, but it certainly, it certainly seems like they are trying to export their ideology across the globe. They certainly are far better at having children. So their birth rates are very impressive and we should be extremely envious. Obviously you have to be extremely careful to delineate between Muslim and Islamist with the extremist attachment going only to the Islamic side of things. So if you start thinking, okay, wait a second, this, they really want a global caliphate, which means they want the world to be under an Islamic government. So a religious theocracy that runs under the laws of the Quran. So if that really is the goal. And they have been very patient and very diligent over the last, I don't know how many decades that this has been a, either intentional or unintentional, but ultimately the same effect of them doing this. But you're seeing that pop up more and more all across Europe. Wild Canada, you're starting to see it a little bit in America. And so there are varying degrees of immune responses from different countries. So this is a big part of why you're seeing more and more countries across Europe go to the right protectionist, get these foreigners out, like that whole vibe, protect my culture. So we'll see if this really is something that escalates. It's really interesting, I know how much flack Sam Harris catches, but he's really had his finger on this since 9, 11 and been saying his whole message. And I, Lord knows Sam should speak for himself. So please take what I say with a grain of salt. But my interpretation of what Sam says goes something like this. Christianity used to be a horrific all consuming mob that swept across the Middle east back in the 1400s and we were constantly killing and pillaging and so we had reforms and ultimately Christianity becomes far more peaceful. So please don't confuse what's going on within the Islamic extremists with Muslims themselves. But they do need a reform and so they need to find a way to soften the edges, to reinterpret what's going on in the Quran so that you can get a more moderate version of this, export the life out of that and really Let it be a religion of peace, as it so often claims to be. And the pushback that I've heard on that, or actually, I shouldn't say that the compendium that I've heard on that is that part of the problem is that compared to the Bible, which is much longer, especially when you take Old Testament, New Testament, the Quran is just so succinct and direct and it's just like, do this. So it becomes a lot harder for people to start selectively ignoring passages. So we'll see how it plays out. But, yes, this is absolutely horrific. You obviously do not need religion to get behind this to have a mass shooting. We've had plenty of mass shootings just from young, affected men. Typically, white men tend to be your progenerator of that kind of thing. So I don't want this to seem like Bondi could only. This kind of mass shooting could only have been something pushed forward by an Islamist extremist. But not talking about that would be stupid. Not talking about the rise of anti Semitism would be stupid. And the thing that scares me most is not understanding how all of this plays into the pogroms throughout history. Dude, when things go economically awry, Jews start getting killed en masse. Period. End of story. Like, it just repeats over and over and over. And this is why I'm like, if you find yourself saying the Jews are the problem, stop. Like, you are falling into a historical pattern that is so, like, repetitive, it's ridiculous. And the real question to ask is, in times aplenty, why aren't you worried about it? Because if your whole beef is just, oh, I don't like the way that they approach the world, you think that some of their modus operandi is immoral or whatever. Address that when everybody's calm and blood isn't boiling. When you start doing this kind of thing at a time where everybody's on edge and you know that it's a tinderbox that people emotionally will just spark and go crazy. History tells you the people will spark, go crazy and start killing them. So that's where I'm like, hey, case in point. So Bondi beach definitely carries that extra punch of, like. This tends to be a wave that continues to grow and grow and grow and grow until Jews really have very little safety left.

[B]

So, yeah, it does seem very heightened right now. But it almost reminds me of the air traffic controller debacles that were happening at the beginning of the year and every time a plane had an issue or anybody was late or something like that we're like, see, look it's Trump. See, look, it's Trump. But then when you went to the statistics, you looked on mass, you said, okay, this happens. And this isn't the most that it's ever been this year. This is even the most that it's ever been last year. This is just the new renowned focus of the news lately. Terrorists are going to terror. There's been terror attacks all the time. Do you think that there, there is something specific in this moment that is rising? Anti Semitism?

[A]

Yes, Hardcore. This is a historical pattern that looks like this. It is very smart to master money. I don't care who you are, I don't care your ethnicity, nothing. For whatever reason, Jews actually really fucking take that shit seriously. And so when they are teaching their, like this is how to be successful as a Jewish person, one of the things that they're talking about getting into business, getting into positions of power, understanding money, putting yourself at that center, and that's just smart. So part of the drum that I'm beating is just desperately trying to get people to understand how money works. And so anyway, they do that, they get into positions of economic power, which is very brilliant. This is only going to be like a tiny fraction of them, as would be true anywhere. But because that's reinforced within the community, because the Jewish community certainly has a strong propensity to help each other, they'll end up getting into these positions of power. Nobody thinks about it. In times of plenty, when things start going bad suddenly, it's not that, oh, they've just like anything else where you'll find any given ethnic group, like one person gets into something and then they bring the next and the next and the next. That's just how it goes. Especially when you're the minority. Instead of looking at it like, oh yeah, that's just where they're drawn to their community. Hoovers up a bunch of talent into that area, you start going, it's a cabal. It's a secret cabal, and it works against us. They're the enemy because they're a successful minority. Nothing will get you killed faster than being a successful minority, by the way. So they're a successful minority. They're identifiable. They isolate. Oh God. You get into like they've tried a simulation, isolation, blah, blah, blah. Setting that aside for a second, it is almost always perceived as they are the outsider, they are successful, they are successful at our expense. So they are taking from us rather than they've just mastered how money works, they are taking from us. Now listen, whenever you get a group that works amongst itself, they're going to wield undue power. It doesn't matter if you're. If that's true in video games, trading cards, business, whatever. Like, you get, you can create these very powerful groups. So when you do that, there's a religious line, you're an identifiable group by name, by sight, whatever. And it's money where people really take that shit seriously at all times. And especially when it feels like the pie is shrinking. So the pattern goes PI stars shrinking. People can identify that they are plugged into the money scene. They believe that they're doing that at their expense, that they are the other and they go on the attack. And so this then ends up becoming this very easily identifiable, blameable group that people just build resentment for historically. And so they target them and go after them. And like, if you take humans as a species, there's two ways to look at what ends up happening with Jewish people. Way number one is to go, ooh, this is weird. Us as humans. There's like this one subgroup amongst us, right? Like, draw the bubble around all of humanity for a second. We're all the same. We're all one. Like, to an alien, that would be true. Like, these are all the Homo sapiens. Okay, well, for whatever weird ass reason, Homo sapiens keep turning on this one little group. Cool. Super bizarre. Not a good look on humanity, in my opinion. Way number two is to go, oh, that's weird. This one little group of Homo sapiens, they keep things up. And depending on which side of that line, that frame of reference you fall under depends on whether you are rolling up with the guns on Bondi beach or you're mortified. And the, the great thing, if you can say that, is it was a Muslim that disarmed the gunman. And I could not be happier about that. So that it just brings into stark relief that people can see this. Trying to make any group, Jews, Muslims, even people that are ardent believers in an Islamic state, it's never going to be monolithic. And so being very careful to treat people as humans, as individuals, not blinding yourself to patterns by any means, but yeah, trying to stay as sober as you can to not just cram everybody into one group. Taking a short break, but there's more Impact theory after. Stay tuned. Thanks to HomeServe for sponsoring this episode. Here in Southern California, we've been hammered with rain recently. When weather changes fast, your home gets tested. The problem is most people think their homeowner's insurance has them covered. But it doesn't. Last time we had a leak, I Wish I had HomeServe to get someone to help fix it immediately. HomeServe is like a subscription to your home. 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[B]

The White House had a profile done by the Vanity Fair by Vanity Fair. The interviewer allegedly was going through the White House over the last year. She had access to meetings. There was even a portrait in there that kind of showed the whole Trump cabinet. So it seemed like this is like one of those backstage at a concert type journalist who was actually like in the day to day life with them. But some of the quotes that came out weren't too flattering of the Trump presidency. Let's cover it.

[A]

House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles telling Vanity Fair Trump wants to keep on blowing boats up until Maduro cries uncle. That rare interview from Trump's closest aide is providing new insight on a wide range of issues. She describes Trump as having an alcoholic's personality, noting that Trump, who does not drink, operates with a view that there's nothing he can't do. Nothing.

[B]

Zero, nothing.

[A]

Whiles also saying Vice President J.D. vance has been a conspiracy theorist for a decade and whiles adding Attorney General Pam Bondi completely whiffed her handling of the Epstein files. Whiles does acknowledge the President himself is in the Epstein files, but not doing anything awful saying the two men were sort of young single playboys together in response to the article.

[B]

So then yep, in response Susie Wiles didn't like it. She tweeted the article published early this morning is a disingenuously framed hit piece on me and the finest president, White House staff and the Cabinet in history. Significant context was disregarded and much of what I another said about the team the President was left out of the story. I assume after reading it that this was done to paint an overwhelmingly chaotic and negative narrative about the President and our team spinners are going to spin. So is it just what the Vanity Fair was like? I see an opportunity here and take these out of context of course.

[A]

So. Well first of all one thing. Imagine that the journalist has a frame of reference that points what they look at and what they see. So you don't even have to go all the way to nefarious though that might be warranted for her to hear the things that she wants to hear from Susie. So I remember one time I think I've told this story before talking to this guy that I worked with and person A. The person I was talking to hated person A and loved person B And I went on a business trip with person A and person B, and person A, the hated person, saved our ass because person B, the loved person, was completely up. Like, it was wild in the room. I was like, what's happening? And person A comes in, saves the day. It was awesome. I come back and tell the person I'm talking to who hates person A. Person A saved today. And he goes, I knew it. That fucking guy's a moron. And I was like, wait. I just said person A saved the day. And he was like, dude, I knew it. I told you that guy was stupid. And I'm like, what is happening right now? I'm like, stop. Person A saved the day. And he was like, oh, shit. He was like, I so think that guy is dumb. Even though you did say that twice. He was like, I couldn't hear you because my mental model was so person B good, person A bad. And I was like, it. Literally, that left an indelible mark on my psyche. In fact, that's probably one of the reasons I was like, holy shit. People are really trapped inside their frame of reference, like, seeing that play out in real time. Because the guy that I was talking to is incredibly smart, but he literally could not hear the words I was saying. It was wild. So, yeah, there's. There's that now. She may also just be a political hack and be totally nefarious. So there's also that now I very rarely do interviews in print. Like, even back at, like, the height of my quest days, where I was getting a lot of requests for print, I learned a very powerful lesson early on. So I got interviewed for somebody who wanted to know how somebody as successful as me, like, manage their time. And so I was explaining to them how I use transitional moments. And I'm talking about how I'm, like, always learning something. And I read while I'm brushing my teeth, or I read while I'm cooking or walking or whatever. Like, I've got headphones in all the time. I read while I'm falling asleep, when I wake up, up. When I say they made me sound like a psychopath in that interview, I was like, wait, now, they did not misquote me. But by stripping out the most, like, the one where I was being tongue in cheek or funny and then not in any way showing how we were having a playful conversation when I said it. And then she just lifted that one line and was like, tom, Bill, you has a very extreme way of living that I don't think most people would, like, insert whatever the Quote was, I don't remember. And I was like, well, I'm not doing print anymore. So. Because at least on a podcast, like what I've always said to people, because the team will be like, well, will you go on the show? It's probably going to be antagonistic. And I'm like, they can't make me say something I don't believe. So I have no problem going on the show. Now, if they deceptively edit and we've all seen that is very possible to do, then I would have beef. But typically on a podcast, you don't get that I certainly haven't had real problems with it. So. But print is wild. So I. The thing that I'm most shocked about is why on earth did Susie go to Vanity Fair? Which is not exactly going to be a friendly. And I love that they will go out and do things with unfriendly people. But print, like, print is the easiest place to make somebody look crazy or to paint a narrative. So anyway, that was just weird. I don't know why she did it. She did it. But Donald Trump Jr. Who you would expect if he thought, okay, that Susie is trying to do something now to go on the attack on Trump, he came out, defended her, like, unequivocally. It was just like, she's amazing. She's the best person for my dad. Like, love, love, love. So I will assume that there's no fire here.

[B]

Yeah. I'm not reading this entire thing, but Susie Wiles is by far the most effective and trustworthy chief of staff. The president. The chief said that my father has ever had. She was a loyal fighter from him from the moment she came on board. So.

[A]

And he goes on to say, like, listen, there's nothing here. She's amazing. Taken out of context.

[B]

Yeah. So it's interesting. But, yeah, to your point, it's. Did they set them up by going on Vanity Fair? It didn't seem like it friendly, but that was. I think that was like, yeah, that was a vanity. Like, literally a vanity play by Susie. Like, oh, Vanity Fair wants to profile me. Of course. I would love to go.

[A]

I don't know. She's always eschewed that kind of stuff. So that was the only thing where I was like, man, this is not somebody who, like, craves the spotlight. But anyway, I haven't read the full article, so I will say that she strikes me as the kind of person that you'd want on your team. Here's one of the weirdest things about being a CEO, and I imagine this is times a gazillion. If you're the president, people are afraid to tell you the truth. And they might be afraid to tell you the truth because they're worried they're going to get fired. They might be afraid to tell you the truth because they don't want you to associate them with bad things. But it's like the person that will actually tell you the truth is by far the most valuable person on your team. Team. If you're wired like me, like, I am so convinced that the only thing that matters is to know what's true. I don't want to be overly flattered. Listen, if I did something that's good, I want to know for sure. And that always feels lovely. But the thing that I want is to know how the world actually works. This is why I call it the only belief that matters. The only belief that matters is that you can get better at something if you put time and energy into it. So it's like, hey, Tom, you're doing this thing, you're completely it up. You have a goal, and because you're that thing up, you're not going to achieve your goal. So I'm like, wait a second, I've gotten this far in life doing that thing poorly, and now you're going to help me do it well. And all I have to do is take the sting of like, oh, currently I suck at this. Yeah, word. Because I know how potent goals goal achievement is. Like, you can actually get things in life do things in life that other people can't get or do. And I'm like, okay. And so wait, I just want to be clear. All I have to do is take the emotional self esteem hit that I suck at this. Yes. Okay. Like, that's how I look at the world. I'm watching other people, psychological immune system in full swing, lying to themselves about who they are and what they're good at. And I'm just like, but hold on, you're bad at it now, but you don't have to be bad at it forever. But you will never get good at it if you can't admit that you're currently bad at it. So you do have to take the psychological hit of, ooh, I'm not as good as I want to be. And I get it. That's not fun. It's not fun for me. It's not fun for anybody. But it unlocks something so useful. It's not how most people live.

[B]

Yeah, all right, well, we'll keep look at the situation. I don't know, I feel like it's, it's over. Like, Vinny Fair got their article out, they got their clicks, they got their magazine, the subscriptions. Like, you can't undo print. I feel like once it's out there.

[A]

Politics is a reality show that we all just want to watch. When I decided to shift the show over into politics, I was looking at what, what are the engines? Because the reason I wanted to move away from the phase one empowerment stuff was I was bored out of my mind and was very much afraid that it was spiritual entertainment that people look, the 2% are going to change 98 or not. And so here I am interviewing people that were boring me to tears. They were all saying the same thing over and over and over, and only 2% of people are going to change anyway. So I was like, I can't keep doing this. So I needed an engine. What's going to be the engine of the show? So when I was doing Mindset, the engine of the show was someone writes a book on mindset, we have them, come on. I give them the best interview around that book that's ever been done. Great. Then I was like, there are better engines than that. And there are three incredible engines. Sports, religion, and politics. And I was like, politics. And in politics, obviously is money and all that. That was the only one. I was like, oh, I could stay interested in that forever because it remains very consequential. There's obviously a reason that Eileen economic. Whereas other people might lean towards something else in that bucket. But it is, it's a huge engine. So it is. You're going to have like a never ending list of things to talk about once you understand that people want these engines because they are the thing that like, like occupies their mind from an entertainment value perspective. So there's a reason that I liken sports to religion, religion to politics. Like, it's a thing. It's a thing that sparks strong emotion, that makes people want to invest their time in understanding who the players are, what they're doing right. It could be a player in Congress, it could be a player on the court. Doesn't matter. It gives people that same sense of, I'm investing in this drama on. We've got this huge wall of debt that we have to deal with, and at the rates of interest that we were at, we'll. We will literally bankrupt the nation if we were to refine, refinance at those rates. That's why people like Lynn Alden were like, guys, there's no universe in which they don't lower rates. They have to. It's not a question they. There's no option. So he can make all the noise that he wants by 2026, he's gonna have to lower those rates because he's not going to suicide the U.S. economy now. We'll, we'll kill it, we'll poison it slowly like we'll make it smoke like 40 packs of cigarettes a day. But we're 100% going to do the money printing shtick until we hyper inflate like there, there is nothing else. You're just trying to buy yourself time. You kick the can down the road in the hopes that AI creates a productivity miracle and you grow your way out of this and you don't have anything else to do. Your only other option is a beautiful deleveraging. And I wish he had called that something else like a violent restructuring, because that's at least honest. So your only other option is a violent restructuring that will just devastate a ton of people, potentially spin you into a depression, but nonetheless, like it's the only thing that you can do other than guarantee the patient dies down the road. So this is the moment where the Fed is doing a bad thing. They absolutely should not be lowering rates, they should be raising rates or at a minimum, leaving them where they are. But they can't. So now what? Now what is you are going to fuel bubbles and when bubbles. So now let's pull up the Shiller thing. I have something that I want to read to people. So the Shiller PE ratio just crossed 40 for only the third time in history. The Schiller PE ratio, also called the CAPE, cyclically adjusted price to earnings measures how expensive the stock market is relative to its long term earnings power, not just this year's profits. So if you explain that in plain English, the stock market price is divided by the average inflation adjusted earnings over 10 years. Okay, so the key difference from a normal PE ratio is it uses 10 years of earnings which smooth, smooths out booms and busts. So recessions, it's inflation adjusted, so it's real purchasing power, not nominal noise. Effectively it's designed to spot bubbles. That's the whole point. Like is this thing overpriced? Now to give you an idea what normal looks like historically, since the late 1800s. So over 120, 30 years, the long term average is like 16 to 17. We're over 40. Okay, so it's 16 to 17. A cheap market where it's like, whoa, what's going on? Is anything less than a 10. An expensive market is anything over 25. Extreme bubble territory is anything over 30. And crossing 40 is historically insane.

[B]

And we're at 40 right now and.

[A]

We'Ve only done it three times now. Why is this a big deal? The Schiller pe greater than 40 has occurred during 1929. You might have heard of a famous thing there called the Great Stock Market Crash, the Great Depression, 1999 to 2000, the dot com crash and 2021 to present, which is now. So in the first two cases, real returns over the next 10 to 15 years were flat to negative. Valuations didn't grow into it, prices fell or stagnated while earnings caught up. So there is no historical precedent where buying at these levels led to strong long term returns. Like it took Cisco just, just now, like a week ago, just now got back to where it was during the dot com boom. That's 25 years.

[B]

That's wild.

[A]

So that's why nobody wants their money locked up for 25 years. So especially yeah, you, you don't want to look at this market and go, oh my God, number go up. This is amazing. We're all good, everything's wonderful. Now at the same time, you don't just want to pull out of the market.

[B]

That's what I was saying.

[A]

So dollar cost average. Look, because the future is so uncertain, I'm always just dollar cost average. The odds that you get the timing right are effectively zero unless you are Ray Dalio levels of. I've got 150 researchers that all they do is think about this every day. I've got an AI that trades in milliseconds. My fiber optic cable is like 9 millimeters from the terminals that they're trading with to make sure that this shit is like the fastest, fastest, fastest ever. If you would know how to front run Bridgewater on a trade, then by all means do it. If you don't know how to front run a trade, know that other people are front running you. So it's like you just don't do it. That's not the play. The play is to go okay over very long periods of time. What usually ends up winning dollar cost average in to a very broad basket of goods having enough cash on hand that you can survive a extended period of time. To me, six months is the absolute minimum. Like dude, yeah, you, you. If you have to move back into your parents basement or get five friends in a studio apartment so that you can save up money, literally do that. So to get six months on hand, that's Gotta be the goal. I keep like three years of cash on hand. Just again peak paranoia. I can't see the future clearly. Nobody can. So you want to give yourself maximum optionality now I'm still dollar cost averaging in but, but the I'm not like hey because the things have gone up so much that I'm just like dumping in. This is the great time. It's like I get most paranoid when everything seems like it's only not investment advice.

[B]

Not investment advice. Talk to your financial advisors. We can't get to two times in one episode. What about can I just buy gold?

[A]

Gold silver you can but just same thing be paranoid. Dollar cost average in assume that you can't see the future clearly there are no such thing as sure bets. There have been plenty of people that had their money trapped in gold for like 20 gold went flat and just wasn't the thing. And even though yes it is exactly the kind of thing that you want to own as an inflation hedge, it doesn't mean that the market values it as such. So you have to be very careful the odds that your money will retain the like sort of average price of gold. Yes. But if gold's like really doing a run up you could get way ahead of yourself for a very long time. And gold right now has been on a run up. Now full disclosure, I am dollar cost averaging into gold because I am way more paranoid about inflation because let's say if the market collapses what will they do? They will print money. So it's like well where do I want to be? Bitcoin, gold, etc. Again not financial advice. And I'm literally not the guy, I'm the guy out here. I'm going to tell you everything that I'm learning and then for you go do your thing. I will tell you what I do but I, I like at the end of all my videos I give very similar advice. It is essentially the all Weather fund strategy. It is I don't know what's coming. And so diversify across against a wide set of economic forces. I don't tell people go buy this stock or this specific thing or any of that. It's like because I don't know what will happen. So yeah, people need to understand the cause and effect and then bet on their own understanding standing. It's like otherwise you're, you're gonna get caught off guard by someone, somewhere, everybody. As a reminder, we are rushing now towards the holidays. Holidays for me are like this completely sacred period of time. So Friday is going to be our last live until the New Year, so just brace yourselves for that. And then in the New Year we're going to be going live three days a week, Monday, Wednesday and Friday at 7am Pacific time. On Friday it'll still be the normal 6am so come in for that. And in the New Year they'll only be two hours long. Friday, which is our last one of the year, will still be 3 hours normal 6 to 9. So hope to see you there. Sending you guys all love and we'll see you on Friday. Later everybody. Peace. Most healthy habits are hard. Meal prep takes hours. Gym routines get derailed all the time. Complicated supplement regimens fall apart, often within weeks. But AG1 Next Gen is different. AG1 NextGen delivers what your body actually needs. 75 plus vitamins and minerals, 5 clinically studied probiotic strains plus prebiotics and superfoods. It replaces your multivitamin, probiotics and more in one simple daily drink. AG1 next gen comes in three new tropical citrus and berry. All plant based flavoring with 0 added sugar, 0 artificial sweeteners, 0 erythritol. Every flavor maintains NSF certification for sport, so you know you're getting the strictest quality standards. Subscribe today to try the next gen of AG1 and if you use my link you'll also get a free bottle of AG D3K2, an AG1 Welcome Kit and five of the upgraded travel packs. With your first order order, click the link in the show notes or just head to drinkag1.comimpact to get started again. That's drinkag1.com impact this message comes from Alteryx Business breakthroughs aren't about more data, they're about getting your data ready to harness advanced analytics, custom models, AI, agentic futures and more. Alteryx One makes that happen. Built for analysts, powered for the intelligent enterprise. Connect data from anywhere, automate analytics and turn insight into action with speed, user focused, secure, scalable. That's Alteryx One, trusted by nearly half of Global 2000 companies. Visit alteryx.com to learn more.