
Tom Bilyeu and Producer Drew dive into the high-stakes global power struggle unfolding in Iran, unraveling economic motives behind the war, the critical role of Middle Eastern investments in U.S. AI, and the hidden narrative battles shaping world events.
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Tom Bilyeu
Reggie, I just sold my car online. Let's go, Grandpa. Wait, you did? Yep, On Carvana. Just put in the license plate, answered a few questions, got an offer in minutes. Easier than setting up that new digital picture frame. You don't say. Yeah, they're even picking it up tomorrow. Talk about fast.
Admiral Brad Cooper
Wow.
Tom Bilyeu
Way to go. So, about that picture frame. Ah, forget about it. Until Carvana makes one, I'm not interested. Car selling made easy on Carvana. Pickup fees may apply. Today's show is made possible by plod. You think you remember conversations accurately? The data says you do not. Studies Show we forget 50% of what we hear within an hour. That client call where you discuss pricing, you're missing half of it. That strategy meeting with three action items, you remember two, maybe. But PLOD can fix this. It's an AI assistant that captures every conversation. Meetings, calls in person, discussions, planning. PLOD records everything, then delivers accurate transcripts, summaries and action items automatically. You can literally just wear it. No more guessing what was said. No more. I think they mentioned. Ask PLOD exactly what was decided, who's responsible, what the next steps are. Right now, listeners can get 10% off or more on all PLOD devices with the code TOM10. Just type plaudit.AI/tom into Google. Or simply search PLOD on Google and use the code TOM10 at checkout to get started today. Welcome, everybody, to another episode of the Tom Bilyeu Show Live. Incredibly strange. Dangerous times are upon us. Obviously, the war continues to rage in Iran. They named Khomeini's son as his successor, and then hours later, he was reportedly hit and killed in a strike.
Drew
Another one.
Tom Bilyeu
Dangerous times. Ho ho. Not how I thought we were using that button today, but very well played. The US Is expanding its messaging in terms of going from nukes to ballistic missiles and fears of Iran going underground and becoming unreachable. And so watching the US get their messaging together in that in real time, you are watching the narrative game be played. Narrative warfare is everywhere, everybody, so do be careful. Many people are confused about Iran's pattern of retaliation, but I think it makes perfect sense once you understand what Iran's actual strategy is. And we're going to be going into detail on that today. Poland has added themselves to the list of countries that are now pursuing nuclear weapons as they look around and realize, hey, we live in a world of raw power. Now, for anybody that's come up in the post World War II international world order, this is a very shocking period of time that we're going through and there's going to be a ton of disruption. And we're seeing some, some of that play out right now in South Korea as their stock market plummeted and actually got shut down. It's called tripping a breaker. They tripped a breaker to avoid panic selling as fears there over rising oil prices are just spinning people out of control. But that's what happens when you're importing the vast majority of your energy. And we'll talk a bit about that later. Trump is doing battle with the banks to get the genius act in place and to establish the US as the highest home of crypto. I think this is really important. And people pushing back on the banks and the way that they're trying to strangle the crypto industry, I think that is very wise. It's in my book, quite outrageous what they're trying to do. The US Is now picking up side missions as we apparently joined a joint military operation with Ecuador. Did not have this one on my bingo card today. This was aimed at going after a designated terrorist organization in Ecuador. Why now? I don't know if I can be a little bit suspicious, if you guys will forgive me, given everything that's going on. Boy, I don't know if they're burying Epstein files in Ecuador now or what, but, oh, buddy, there's something going on. Because that is some really strange timing. And I'm sure that it's all going to make sense, Drew, when we look at it. It's just going to be just hunky dory and above board miracle. Yeah. Okay. Well, here we go.
Drew
I feel like when we first heard about the war on Saturday to what we're talking about now on Wednesday has already started, like, shifting.
Tom Bilyeu
How dare you notice that?
Drew
How dare you notice that There is no war. There is no war. But before we get into the minutiae of that, where are we at with the war? How are you feeling in general?
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah. All jokes aside, it is right now I would say that this is a bit of a mixed bag. So some things are going well, other things are not. And so if you look at just from a pure military perspective, perspective, I think the US Is doing very well. I think as you look at the way that the amount of attacks in terms of number of rockets and things that are being launched, that's content from Iran to other places, that continues to diminish by the day. And the real tell in terms of US getting air superiority is the different types of airplanes that we're sending in. So in the beginning, you're going to start with the B2 Bombers. It's super stealth. You go in because you're expecting that their defenses are locked and loaded, they're ready to go. And if you come in in a super obvious way, you're absolutely going to get taken out. And so the fact that we started there I don't think surprised anybody, but we were able to do a lot of damage to begin taking out some of their radar, some of their anti aircraft capabilities. And so we started going down the list of like you then go on to, we've got really fast jets but they're visible. And so you drop some more stuff, you try to break more of their defenses. Then you go to what we're at now, which is the B52 bombers. They have much bigger capacity. However, they're like super slow, they fly at like 30,000ft, they're visible to every radar ever. And so now the fact that we're using those tells you that we really have established air superiority. Now there was a dogfight and so I believe it was an Israeli jet that ended up taking out one of the Iranian jets in a dogfight. So it's not that their capabilities are at zero, but they're at a point now where we feel very comfortable going slow, dropping massive payloads on them. And so that has been a really big advantage for us. So I think that you are winning from that perspective. However, when you see what's happening in the Straight or Hormuz, this is where everybody has to get very paranoid. If you want to talk about how this could all go very badly for the whole world if they can effectively, they being Iran, if Iran can effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, they're in a really good position. Now the problem is that they've been able to do that without firing a shot. We've essentially sunk their entire navy, which is another big check mark in our box. So that's going very well. They haven't been able to place the mines that people were expecting them to be able to place. However, they have managed to get all of the insurance companies primarily out of the UK to just be like, eh, we don't want to touch this. There's too many question marks going on here. And so because of that we're now in a position where if we didn't act and do something very dramatic that you're going to have, depending on how long it goes on, you could go up all the way from just rising prices in energy, which will be less problematic for the US but certainly Problematic for a lot of people the world over. But if you can get into global recession territory because you're able to choke that out for an extended period of time now, you're in real trouble. And if I remember right, something like 20% of all the world's oil goes through that, or at least the sea bound oil goes through there. So it would be a massive blow to the world economy. And for anybody importing a lot of oil going to be very problematic. So Trump has just said like our U.S. navy is going to handhold ships through this. Oh, and by the way, we're going to use one of the banks that's normally reserved for helping smaller countries get moving. We're going to re task that bank with supplying insurance to people. Now whether this ends up being brilliant or utterly disastrous, only time is going to tell. But it is a very fascinating move on the part of Trump. So we'll see how that one plays out. And I can't tell if they move that fast just because they were expecting this to happen and this was something that they war gamed out and they knew this is a possibility. And so boom, we've got to have something in the back pocket or if somebody in the administration was just like the guy that raised his hand was like, hey, I'm the guy you've been waiting, I've been waiting for this moment and you've been waiting to call on exactly me. And I know exactly how we address this because they moved on this very fast. Again, the outcome of this is anybody's guess at this point. But uh, it's a very shrewd tactical move because choking off the straight of Hormuz is one of the ways that you can almost dead hand trigger this whole thing. If they can find a way to poison that again just by getting insurance companies that think it's too hot. If they had been able to put a bunch of mines in there, which it doesn't look like they've been able to, if they've got strike capabilities and mobile trucks that the US hasn't yet been able to shut down, that they can get up to the close enough to the edge there that they can actually hit the ships. And a bunch of ships have been hit, I think five, five to nine, somewhere in their ships have been hit by the Iranians. So they've proven they've got the ability to do it. They've done enough damage to get the insurances, insurance companies to pull back. Okay, all of that. I think not a lot of people are going to argue Now I'm going to put something forward that's a little more suspect. I'm not even sure that this theory of mine is accurate, but I have a growing sense that the hostilities between the US and the UK are going to start playing out in very weird ways. And it is super strange to watch in real at these two long time allies that supposedly had this very special relationship. To watch all of this unwinding is very interesting and the question becomes why now? You get into the immigration of it all. If you're going to talk about the why now? Because Keir Starma certainly seems to be playing to a growing Muslim base within his country. Seems to be going way out of his way to let the people know, hey, you know, we're, we weren't involved in these strikes but because their own bases are getting hit, they have to do something. And so as they put this public messaging forward that is very schizophrenic. And then behind the scenes are pulling back. It's not like the UK government is the one controlling the insurance. But do I expect that there is a lot of shared desire on behalf of the quote unquote, the City of London? I shouldn't put that in quotes. The City of London for people that don't understand is different than London. I don't think a lot of people know that. So the City of London is the center of banking. It's the center of where these big insurance companies lie. They have different rules and regulations that only apply to them. I think there are even certain things that they vote on. It's very, very interesting and it predates the UK Parliament let that one sink in. So there's some very interesting things going on here. Every now and then you'll hear like a conspiracy. And I think it probably is best understood at least to the depths that many people take this better understood as a conspiracy. But there is enough there there to talk about that. The City of London has been trying to control the flow of oil in Iran and the flow of capital in Iran since 1901. I talked briefly about this on Monday and so I have a feeling again I've got my tinfoil hat strapped on very tightly right now and I will update my think banking as more data comes out. But the more that I see the UK being weird, I think it's that one, two punch of they have a growing Muslim population that they have to consider as they message and get involved. And you've got the City of London which is like all the wolves howling, secret bankery stuff, trying to do what they can to maintain control of the situation. And I don't think that they want Trump to be able to run his agenda. And there there are groups that put together very cohesive, though not necessarily accurate narratives about why Trump is so hell bent to go after the UK banking system. The the City of London banking system is probably a better way to say it. So again, I'm not, I'm super dubious that the narrative that gets put together there is accurate, that they would benefit from instability in the region. That does not make sense to me. But just know that's sort of there in the background as a potential reason for the ever growing tension between the UK and the US Taking a short break, but there's more impact theory after Stay tuned. Let's talk about a problem that is hiding in plain sight. You're using AI for everything now. Like everybody else, every single conversation is being stored, analyzed and used to build a profile on you. That's where Duck AI comes in. It is a new product from DuckDuckGo, the company that's been protecting privacy online since 2008. Duck AI lets you chat privately with ChatGPT, Claude, and other popular AIs all in one place. Your conversations aren't used for tracking, training or profiling you. There's no account required and it's completely free. DuckDuckGo built this specifically for data protection, not data collection. They're designed to help stop your information from being stored, tracked or misused by hackers, scammers, and data hungry companies. 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Drew
Seems that the more we get under under the layers of this, this isn't just like a whole like we need to go out there and get those nukes or this is to help the revolution or this is the. It seems like with every turning day we're starting to get. I like I've never heard this much about the street of her moose until the last like three or four days. Like it's crazy how these different things are now unrighteous, unwinding. But CENTCOM had a breakdown of how a lot of these things are going. Kind of give us a read on exactly what we're. What we're sending over there and how Operation Epic Fury is happening. Did you want to do the cue it up for us first?
Tom Bilyeu
No. Play this clip. Okay.
Admiral Brad Cooper
Good afternoon. I'm Admiral Brad Cooper, the commander of United States Central Command. In this capacity, I lead US Military forces in the Middle East. I'm here to provide you an update on Operation Epic Fury. Now in our fourth day of execution. First, I'd like to express my deepest condolences to the families and teammates of the extraordinary Americans who've been killed in action. And I'd also like to extend our prayers for a speedy recovery to the wounded. Yesterday you heard from Secretary Higseth and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs. Today I'd like to give you an operational update on where we are and provide you with some key facts. By order of the President of the United States and the Secretary of War, our military in the Middle east is undertaking an unprecedented operation to eliminate Iran's ability to threaten Americans as they've been doing for nearly half a century. Having spent more than 36 years in the military, I could not be prouder of America's sons and daughters in uniform who are answering the call. More than 50,000 troops, 200 fighters, two aircraft carriers and bombers from the United States are participating in this operation. And more capability is on the way. These forces bring a massive amount of firepower, representing the largest buildup by the US in the Middle east in a generation. In the opening hours of Operation Epic Fury, US Central Command forces, together with Israel, delivered overwhelming and unprecedented strikes into Iran. Many of you may remember, I think
Tom Bilyeu
in the beginning, and I'm not sure what the logic was, if Trump just didn't think he was going to be able to win the narrative battle. But in the beginning, he was just silent, man, like, we were clearly marching towards war. We were getting updates that they just won't agree, won't agree, won't agree. But everyone was like, are you ever going to make the case to the American people? So at least now, as we're in it, we're starting to get some of these updates because one with AI, all of the crazy misinformation and everything that's floating around there, you need somewhere that you can go to at least hold them accountable to their messaging. So it's like, if you think of it as an official record more than this is the reality. You should not just believe what they say. People should be aggressively fact checking this stuff because they, their, this is all going to be narrative battling, but getting them to go on the official record and saying, this is what we are officially standing behind. This is what's happening, this is what you guys can trust. And then that way, over time, we can figure out how much we actually can trust them. Like, are they saying the real thing? You were bringing this up earlier. It's like so much of this stuff is changing in real time. They were talking one way about why we were going to war, only to watch that then change. And we have gone through all of the, you know, at first Trump was just saying, this is all about nuclear, nuclear, nuclear. We're trying to have this negotiation. And then it was like, psych, just kidding. Because we had already taken out all of their nuclear capabilities. And the reason that we Went now straight from the mouth of your Secretary of state, he's saying, well, Israel was about to make a move, and so we wanted to preempt them. Then he walked that back and was like, what are you talking about? That's not what I said the first time. You got to play the full context. Which he. Yeah, if you have it, play it. I think he's being a little disingenuous, but yesterday you told us that Israel was going to strike Iran and that that's why we needed to get involved. Today the President said that no, Iran was going to get.
Admiral Brad Cooper
Yeah, your statement is false. So that's not what he.
Tom Bilyeu
I was asked very specifically, were you there yesterday? Yes, I asked the question. Wait a minute.
Drew
There absolutely was an imminent threat, and
Tom Bilyeu
the imminent threat was that we knew that if Iran was attacked, and we
Admiral Brad Cooper
believed they would be attacked, that we knew that.
Drew
That if Iran was attacked and we believe they would be. The Internet is forever, man.
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah, well, so here's what's crazy. So listen, he's. The backtracking is important, and I definitely want to finish this clip, and I want people to see how this stuff will change over time. And look, there is no doubt that sometimes you just. You don't say it in the right way or you emphasize the second most important thing instead of the first most important thing. I do this stuff all the time. And then people will parrot back what I said, and I'm like, yes, but I was talking within a bigger context, so I'll give them some of that. But at the same time, it's like, clearly the words you actually said were. And so now if you want to change emphasis or what, you want to, like, say, look, I misspoke or something, fine, but everybody watching at home is going to learn over time that everything is spinning, that politicians say what they need to say to stay in power. Like, it just all becomes a lot more clear. Now, the best lie to tell is always the lie that's the closest to the truth. So you don't have, like, all this crazy shit going on that you're gonna have to backtrack or find some way to integrate it into the narrative later. You know what I mean? And I think that they are finding their footing on the way that they should have framed this in the beginning. I don't think anybody that can hear my voice right now is surprised to hear that. I think this is all economic in terms of the primary driver, not that it's the only driver. Speaking of the way that my words will be used against me. If you look at economics as a primary driver, theology not being number one, nuclear not being number one, but both of those are on the list. We can argue about where exactly they belong on the list, and I'll make a bigger case for this a little bit later in the episode. But I think as you look at everything that's happening, if you try to explain this through a religious lens, you're going to be like, this is confusing. I don't understand why they're doing this. If you look at this through the lens of, okay, from a why now Tactical standpoint, the thing that explains why the Iranian people are rising up, why the Iranian regime has to clamp down, all of that, it gets very clear when you look at economics first, their motivating factor for how we ended up here, fine, religious, love it. But the actual thing that's going to predict behavior now becomes far more tactical, far more strategic, and less about the why, if you see what I mean. And so these guys are not being honest about their. These guys being the U.S. they're not being honest about their why, either. And so if you listen to the words that they're saying, they're trying to give the words that the American people will relax and feel like, yes, this is a just war. So they're not going to give you the presentation of what actually guides their strategic thinking or their tactical execution. What they're going to give you is the emotional, soothing words that they need to say to get the American people to go, okay, like, I'm going to trust whatever you're about to do. And so that's why you'll get somebody like Rubio, who's incredible, very intelligent, very on his game. He's an incredible messenger. However, I think the reality was probably something More like, the US has got to protect this $2 trillion investment. Israel's got an itchy trigger finger for other reasons. They see a window. Closing that window could be as simple as there's mounting pressure on Netanyahu that there's people that want to get him out of. And I don't know, I have not looked closely enough of this. And Israel has done a phenomenal job of keeping themselves out of this news cycle, man, and letting this be about the US like, kudos to those guys. They learned their lesson from all the stuff that they were doing in Palestine. Like, that was just blowing up in their face time after time after time. And so, yeah, Netanyahu has somehow, some way, found a way to, like, really be out of the news cycle. We're all talking about the US what the US is doing, so on and so forth. So I bet that there was some of that, that, okay, there's this pressure from Israel. Like, guys, you may decide that you're going to back out of this. Cuz Trump was like, I'm really trying to negotiate, I'm really trying to get something done. And assuming that all of that was real and not just bluster, which knowing Trump probably was real, but like, you had to just agree to all his demands or he was gonna make a move. But Israel was like, I can't wait on that, so I'm gonna make a move. And Trump is like, damn, I've got this card, I wanna play it. Maybe I wanted to wait a little bit longer or whatever. I am gonna be in pole position. So I am gonna be the guy that's going to attack. This is, this is not me. Like, I'm not dancing to Israel's tune or anything like that. But little bros over here, like, fucking paranoid, won't just let me run my strategy. He's got an itchy trigger finger, he's about to go. Maybe that wasn't even the primary reason. Maybe they were gonna give Trump another week or whatever. But. So Rubio's got in the back of his head all the pressure that they've been fucking dealing with over there. They haven't all gotten together on the messaging yet. So Trump's like, cool, it's a go. He may not even know all the reasons, like, why Trump is pulling the trigger right now. So it's like you're putting together that narrative that is both true, but also we're all just sort of making all this shit up. That's the thing. Like, one side note, people will ask me questions in interviews about my history and I'll say, do you want the real answer or do you want the mythology? Because I can give you the mythology in a soundbite, but I can't give you the truth in a soundbite. The truth was messy. The truth was stop and start and tried this and that didn't work. Then did this, and this part of what we did worked and that part didn't. But people don't want that. They want, like, no, no, no. Like, tell me that story of like, you're sliding towards depression and like, you figure out a way to turn it all around and then it's just like a straight line up. It's like, okay, it's mythology. It's me spinning my own story out of if for no other reason. I'm trying to simplify it enough to actually be able to convey it to somebody. So a narrative is always and forever going to be an oversimplification. It's also Trump maybe be like, well, I really care about winning the midterms, and I really care about making sure that we get the investment dollars. But he may not even be saying that out loud to anybody. So it's like the real motivations are going to be different for different people. They will change over time in terms of what the real emphasis is. And then whatever narrative they package up is not going to necessarily be accurate. It's just going to be the thing that becomes easy to repeat.
Drew
Yeah, I have a couple more clips I kind of want us to react to, so I'm gonna go like a bit round robin on this. This was the Democrats after they walked out of the briefing yesterday after the meeting.
Tom Bilyeu
There are times when you go into a classified session and you walk out and you have a better understanding about the gravity of the situation and the rationale behind the military action. This is not one of those times. We remain as confused as the American people are. They have had three or four or five justifications for this act of war over the last four or five days, and nothing in this classified session alleviated that confusion. That I don't think is a problem. And I don't trust the Republicans assessment of the Democrats, and I don't trust the Democrats assessment of the Republicans. They are just looking to show that their side makes sense and the other side is crazy. That's politics. Absolutely despise it. It is bad for the human race, but nonetheless, it is true. So you can't take that seriously. The reality is that there's going to be multivariate reasons that we're doing it. And some of them are so gross and so ugly, they're never going to be honest about it. They can't say it out loud. And this is why I find this moment so interesting. And the very thing Drew and I don't. I don't know that this is ever going to be popular, but I think it is in terms of oughts. I think it is the way that we and the independent media ought to be covering this. Say what is true, even when it's grotesque. And the reality is that money makes the world go round. And so if your answer doesn't explain the economics of it all, the odds of it being accurate are zero. And when you explain the money of it all and you talk about the number of people dying, it feels monstrous. But it's nonetheless true. And so when, like, when I say, this is why I think they're doing it, and I just say it coldly, I know people confuse it with me. Justifying really does sound gross, but it really is how the world works. And this is one of those. When you look back in history and you actually map out all the things that happen, it's like, would World War II have looked the way that it looked had Hitler not been on meth? No. So you're telling me that, like, all so many people died because they were on meth? Yes. Like, that's rough. That's. That's a tough pill to swallow. And yet, nonetheless, it is true. And so we have to be covetous. We have to want to look at this through the naked lens of what's real. But that requires we accept that humans are a brutal creature.
Drew
Yeah, it keeps getting more. That actually sets up Republican Rep. Tim Burchett's assessment of it. Next.
Tom Bilyeu
Ma'. Am. Go ahead, brother. Senator Lindsey Graham is now calling for the US to start bombing Lebanon in response to the Hezbollah idfaction.
Drew
The reporter's question was, lindsey Graham is calling on the US to start bobbying Lebanon now for their response in the war.
Tom Bilyeu
Lindsey hadn't seen a fistfight. He hasn't wanted to turn into a bombing. Right. So I just take it with a grain of salt, dude. Yes, ma'.
Drew
Am. Dude.
Tom Bilyeu
Take it with a grain of salt, dude.
Drew
And then the last one. This is from this.
Tom Bilyeu
Hold on. Don't. Don't rush past that.
Drew
Okay.
Tom Bilyeu
So that. That is a personality type. And I think that we're seeing it play out right now. I think one of the questions everybody should rightfully be asking themselves is, okay, I get Tom's thesis that the US Is reasserting its dominance, that we are, in a moment now where it's pure power politics. All of the weakness that existed in, say, Russia and China that allowed the US to step into a monopolist world and just say, this is how everything's going to be rules based. You can do all your silver trading and your gold trading on paper. You don't have to worry about the actual asset moving around. You can manufacture everything in China. Doesn't matter. Like, you don't need that. Europe, you don't have to have your own defense. America's going to take care of you because there's no real rival to stand up in against us. Like, all of that stuff is now just beginning to fade away. And all of a sudden we're realizing that okay, hold on a second. Like, this is, this is going to be a fight and now we have to figure out how far is the US like, how far morally, how far from a national identity are we comfortable with the US Going? Are we comfortable with them going after terrorist groups in Ecuador, in Mexico? Are we comfortable with them deporting people off of our own soil because we think that they're not adding to the fabric of America? Are we comfortable with them going into Venezuela and snatching up the dictator? Are we comfortable with them with what they're doing in Iran? If all of that yields, America has the Western hemisphere, America is in control of its area, America solidifies its economic dominance for another generation. Like, are we okay with that? Do we get that that's what this moment is? Or are we going to say, hold on. Any one of these things in isolation was fine, but the pattern of behavior that I'm seeing now is so aggressive and so like, it feels so old school of like this before we knew better era where we were just like, because we're stronger and we can, we're gonna like go into all these countries. And so do we really buy that somebody else would do it to us if we don't do it first? So that like, that new understanding of what America is is going to be ferociously debated within America itself? And so that part of what is going to be interesting for us to watch is how the American people metabolize that change in posture. And do we say, well, that's not really us, that's just Trump, or do we say this is what the moment requires?
Drew
It's interesting. I feel like it's turning on that
Tom Bilyeu
we're hitting pause for a moment, but there's plenty more ahead, so don't go anywhere. Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action.
Drew
This last one, this is BB Netanyahu on Handity. When asked directly, there are people who say Israel dragged Donald Trump into it, your reaction?
Tom Bilyeu
You know, there are people that say, well, the Prime Minister of Israel dragged Donald Trump into it. And as somebody that's been friends with him over 30 years, nobody drags Donald Trump into anything, number one. But I want to get your reaction to that. Well, you're right. I mean, that's ridiculous. Donald Trump is the strongest leader in the world. It's interesting. So having done interviews like this, I know there's a slight delay and so you can feel very awkward. Like that did not feel like a Dr. Evil laugh to me. I think that Netanyahu just has such A terrible reputation, certainly in the West. Even some people in Israel hate the guy. So I think it's easy to read him terribly. The. For me, anyway, the more interesting story is you don't get to be Netanyahu without being a narcissistic egomaniac. And so for him to say that Trump is the strongest leader in the world is definitely political theater. So that part of, like, the sort of blatant manipulation of ego and all that stuff is the thing that I find maybe more fascinating. So, again, you don't have to go to conspiracy to look at Netanyahu and go, okay, here's a guy. That small country, not going to be able to have all of your own resources. You have built an incredible society in the middle of the most hostile place in the world. And, I mean, think about them coming up, like, in the 40s and 50s and 60s, like, everybody's bombing you, everybody's trying to take you out. And one by one, you take them out, take them out and take them out, and then you build what, for my money. And I'm not on the inside of this stuff, so, of course, I could be wrong, because every time I talk to Bustamante, he tells me that the French are far more terrifying. But I just. What the Mossad has been able to pull off is so crazy that you're just like, okay, what they've done is incredible. And so does he have ambitions to continue to just expand, expand, expand? Of course. And does that make it good? No, it absolutely does not. But is it in keeping with what I know about humans? Yes. The only thing it's out of step with is the last 80 years. So this is how when people look at Bitcoin and they're like, bitch gold has been the thing for thousands of years. Bitcoin has been, what, 15 years. And you look at humans and you go, for how many tens of thousands, hundred thousand plus years have we been these psychotic warmongers that were like, oh, I can take you over, so I will take you over. And for 80 years, we were chill. And everybody's like, but 80 years is normal. And the rest is. No, no, no. 80 years is the anomaly. 80 years is the part that you have to go, how on earth is that going to sustain? It doesn't fit the human condition. So when I see somebody act in that way, it does not make me like them. But it certainly doesn't leave me surprised that you have a guy that is. He wants to expand, that left unchecked, they would just keep taking territory, keep Taking territory and the wild thing. A question. I have never spent any time, like, really thinking about this, but the real question is unchecked. Like, how aggressive would they be? I don't know. I don't know. And I don't know that we'll ever find out because they don't have the ability to amass enough resources to do it because they're so small.
Drew
There's a couple things I want to lay out. There's something that you said earlier about when you look at it through this lens of blank, it makes sense to me, that statement. It may. It rustled my feathers a little bit because this isn't one of those things that just as Candace Owens is looking at Erica Kirk through a lens of she killed her husband, so everything she looks at is now through that lens and she's. So basically, you're trying to make what is happening in the world fit through your lens. So it does, it makes sense for you. You're saying that what's happening in the world, if we look at it and it fits through your lens. Economics is the, let's call it the slit that is getting the most information received. So I want to take a step back. I don't want to like, do like a gotcha or something.
Tom Bilyeu
No, please try to gotcha.
Drew
No, no, it's not like. Because I remember on Monday you gave us the five things like, these are the five reasons why we're doing it. This might be 50%, this might be 5%. We had those laid out. Now with more information coming out. Do you recalibrate those percentages all or is it still. You still feel the same way. And it's just now the narrative is slipping, but you still think this was always the main goal and rehash the five.
Tom Bilyeu
Now nothing has. Oh, so you've got roughly 35% going to. This is about economics trying to get all of the, the $2 trillion that have been earmarked for investment in the U.S. that's a big part of it. The second one is the nuclear of it all. So now I'll broaden that out now to the ballistic missiles and them going underground. I find that to be a compelling argument, even if it's. It isn't the primary motivator because they certainly weren't talking about it before. The idea that they already, that they were admitting to the negotiators like Steve Witkoff that, hey, we could already, with a little bit more refinement, we could already make, I think, 11 nuclear weapons. So does that grow a little Bit. Yes. But it still doesn't overtake for me the economic concern.
Drew
Okay.
Tom Bilyeu
Especially as we sort of broaden this out and look at it. And then we had the. Whether the political calculus here is Trump trying to do anything here with the US and then you've got Israel trying to manipulate the US And I'm forgetting off the top of my head what the fifth one was.
Drew
I think it was religion.
Tom Bilyeu
I don't remember religion. That was the one where people were hitting me, maybe. It's certainly a part of the equation, to be sure. Like, are these guys just a psychotic regime that we had to take out because death to America. But I'd more lump that into the, the bucket. That one to me is into the nuclear bucket. That one to me is contextual. It's important to understand why they rule the way they rule. It's important to understand the way that they behave. But as you try to break them, you're going to go economic. As you think about how they're going to break you, they're going to go economic. And so what I'm saying there is not that religion doesn't drive people and give people a really strong how or a why. Excuse me. It's just that right now what we're talking about is what and how. And so in the, the context of how do you get out of this? It's going to be economic in terms of how they try to hurt you, it's going to be economic in terms of how you hurt them, it's going to be economic. So it's just like all of the. And then the second and third order consequences are always going to be economic. And I gave reasons in terms of, like, parallels to China. But I really want to get to. You were saying something really important. And it, it matters to me a lot in my personal life and will certainly matter to anybody trying to decide if they ever want to listen to a word that I say. Way that I look at it is I am trapped inside of a frame of reference. I understand that there is a danger. The things I am most confident on are the things that I have the highest danger on. So anytime where I feel just emotionally justified in going after, like, Mom, Donnie, or I feel emotionally justified in going after Bernie Sanders or whatever, those are the times where I'm like, okay, this is you at your most at risk. So I'm certainly aware of that. It unfortunately, is also me at my most entertaining because I'm legitimately just expressing what I feel. And so there's going to be a contagion effect to that. I'm aware of that. And so when I'm building my worldview, I'm always trying to see what's the disconfirming evidence. And this is why it was important to me when Mamdani did something that I thought was potentially good. So, first of all, the way that he played Trump I thought was brilliant. And so I don't have emotional friction with saying this person who I think's policies are absolutely ruinous. They just did a thing that's very impressive. People should look at it, study it, understand that it's brilliant. Don't try to, like, dismiss him. So I don't see myself as. I'm not on Mom Donnie's team. What I see myself on is I map things via cause and effect. Now, the reason that I feel pretty anchored around an ability to take in new information and invalidate my old beliefs is that the truth has utility. And so if people can trust me to be selfish, if they can trust me that I want to generate more wealth so I can do more things in my life, then they just have to ask, what has the highest utility? And being able to predict the outcome of your investments, for instance, has the highest utility. And so I've spent a ton of time learning about the economy. One, because I'm motivated to help people. That really is where this started. And then two, when I learned something, I'm trying to see if I can deploy it in a real way. So anyway, people attacking me and saying, you don't understand something, I'm always like, cool, help me understand that thing. Because now, even if I despise you, if you're willing to give me something that has utility, like, if anybody thinks that I'm going to go feel bad that I'm more successful in my life because someone I hate and that was trying to hurt my feelings gave me a true piece of information that's useful. It's. They don't understand me, and they certainly, they themselves are trapped inside of something. So I recognize the risks. I am human. I have emotions like anybody else. I'm likely to be bamboozled by them. And so I try to run algorithms that check against that. I will not be perfect. There are going to be times where I'll fool myself into thinking in a certain way because it feels so good. But the second I realize I've trapped myself, I'll let it go for utility.
Drew
If I could have it in one sentence, less than 20 words, why is America and to your. This is Tom Bilyeu's. Perspective, why is America at conflict with Iran right now?
Tom Bilyeu
$2 trillion of Middle Eastern investment is at risk.
Drew
Nice. Okay, so that's the US Perspective. Now if we were to flip over to the Iranian perspective, it looks kind of chaotic because they were just bombing everybody. Israel and the US had smoke with one person. Iran was like, okay, everybody on that side is getting a bomb. What's really happening from their perspective, if you had to break it down that
Tom Bilyeu
way, that brilliant framing. So Iran is not launching missiles randomly. I know a lot of people think that is true. And they are not trying to turn the Gulf nations against the US they are trying to blow up the AI bubble and break the US economy. Once you understand that Iran is not full of idiots, they are extremely intelligent people who have an incredibly detailed plan. And even as they discuss to centralize it, they're able to continue doing this. It's actually a brilliant strategy if they've got enough munitions and people to pull it off before they all get kicked off killed. So the chain of logic is really straightforward. Okay. It goes something like this. Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds and state backed funds are. This is a true statement. The largest limited partners known as LPs that are funding the Western private equity and VC firms. The middle east is funding all these highfalutin American private equity firms and VC firms. Okay, hold on to that because that is incredibly important to why all of this is playing out the way that it's playing out. So the people in the Middle east are often not the names that you hear, you're not going to recognize them, but they are the ones that are funding the names that you hear all the time here in the US now in the first half of 2024 alone, over 54% of all capital deployed by sovereign wealth funds globally came from just the six major Middle Eastern funds. And they're the principal partners in most of the top private equity firms biggest funds. So if you're ever wondering why is Elon Musk constantly speaking at events in the Middle east? Why was it such a big deal that Biden went over to the Middle east and like wouldn't shake hands? And like that was super weird. And why was one of the first thing Trump did when he got into office beeline to the Middle east to start shaking hands? Because capital, in this moment, as the global world order is breaking down, capital is accruing in the Middle east and they no longer want to just reinvest it back into oil, they want to expand beyond that. That's why last May Trump hopped on a plane and he went over to undo the damage that Biden had done to US relations in the Middle East. He toured Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the uae and managed to get the Gulf states to pledge over $2 trillion in deals. Remember, Trump will only stay in power if he's able to make the US economy better for the average person. And a huge part of that is going to be infrastructure projects. AI. Specifically infrastructure projects in the US funded by the Middle East. Okay, That's Trump's play. So if I'm right, the politicians will do and say anything they need to gain and retain power. Then the question becomes why is Iran so important to Trump retaining power? And the answer is those $2 trillion are funding the AI boom or bubble depending on your perspective here in the U.S. now, Saudi Arabia alone committed $600 billion through its Public Investment Fund, including partnerships with Nvidia, AMD and Amazon Web Services to build massive AI data centers. This starting to sound familiar in terms of bombing targets that seem super random. And now all of a sudden, maybe not so random. The uae committed another $200 billion on top of an existing $1.4 trillion plan, all anchored by a multi gigawatt AI campus backed by G4, GFOR2 and OpenAI. At the scale that we are talking about, these sovereign wealth funds are not your average investors. They have essentially become the financial backbone of America's AI buildout. And America's AI buildout is the backbone of America's entire economy right now. You put all that together and it explains why Iran just attacked every single GCC state within 24 hours. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAEall hit with missiles and drones. For the first time in history, every Gulf Cooperation Council nation, the GCC was targeted by the same actor in a single day. Sainem Jengiz at Qatar University's Gulf Studies center called it their long standing nightmare scenario. Airports shut down port suspending operations. Dubai and Abu Dhabi even took hits on civilian buildings. And you know what else got hit? An Amazon Web Services data center. It's not random. It was struck in the UAE and the UAE basically went offline. These attacks are forcing Gulf states to pull back on US investments those $2 trillion and instead pour their massive capital reserves into immediate defense and reconstruction. If you start blowing up a bunch of their stuff, they've got to spend money to fix it. They've got to take that money from somewhere else. Air defensive systems ain't cheap and they're going to need a lot of military hardware if things in Iran aren't settled quickly. The UAE alone has to spend tons of cash just to intercept the roughly 165 ballistic missiles and 541 drones sent their way in just two days. This is just the beginning. And 35 drones and five projectiles still manage to get through everything and do very expensive damage. Rebuilding costs a lot of money and every dollar that goes into their defense is a dollar that they're not sending over to the US to invest in AI projects. Now, if those $2 trillion in AI pledges slow down, get delayed or even partially evaporate, it pulls a critical pillar out from under US AI company valuations and makes what is already a terrifyingly skittish US market absolutely spastic. Stephen Cook at the Council on Foreign Relations wrote before the war started that the Gulf AI investment was partly a play on behalf of the GCC nations to guarantee U.S. security protection. They knew, hey, if we've got all these dollars going to those guys, they're going to protect us from Iran. The tech sector already represents 33% of the S&P 500 and it's down over 11% from its October high. AI fears plus inflation plus the Iran conflict are all compounding at the same time. This is incredibly dangerous to our economy. Iran knows that and that is exactly why they're targeting what they're targeting. Now, if you want to know why the US made a move right now, any explanation that doesn't include a discussion of protecting these investments is either willfully ignorant or just outright propaganda. It's the gross part. It's the thing nobody wants to say out loud. Nobody wants to hear Trump say that I'm sacrificing US lives and I'm blowing a whole bunch of shit up in the Middle east, overthrowing a government, killing the successor after successor because money. But that doesn't mean that it's not true. Iran doesn't need to beat the US military to disrupt the US and change the world order for the next five generations in any way other than smashing US economically. It just needs to make the Gulf states spend their money on survival instead of Nvidia chips to change everything. Because if they can redirect the capital back into the GCC companies countries instead of sending it to the us, the downstream effects on AI valuations, as one example, it could be enormously painful for the US economy. And unfortunately, as of right now, if you do something to destroy the top of our K shaped economy, it affects everyone. So it's not the only reason. I understand that. But if you want to Understand strategy. If you want to understand the tactics, you have to understand the primary driver behind all of this is economic.
Drew
And we're also already seeing the effects of it spreading globally. Globally, oil prices have spiked 14% since the war started. And South Korea's stock market is like plummeting due to global feelers as well. It's funny to me that we say this is about economics and then we start a war and that hurts economies before it helps economies. So it's. Is it just that the ROI is better? So that's why we have to do this. That's why we're.
Tom Bilyeu
Why we have to do a war.
Drew
Yeah, like we're taking. Because going into war right now is going to cause long term harm to the oil markets. Oil markets are the first, are the pillars in the economy when oil goes up, everything else.
Tom Bilyeu
So I think the reason this feels strange to you is because you're confusing short and midterm and long term. Long term, if we win, nothing could be better because now you've got the whole Middle east is safe. You can go through the Strait of Hormuz. There's no choke point from lunatic theocratic regime, as Trump will call them. And so now all of a sudden, if you get a better regime in place, because that's a big if. But if you get a big regime in place and there's stability all across the Middle east, guess what? The Middle east does. And I know that people do not like this, but the Middle east goes, ah, word, finally we can enter the 21st century, which means we can stop being theocratic assholes that are constantly fighting these dumb ass fights. And instead we are going to build economically, we're going to become a place that people want to come. We're going to be a place that has safety and stability. Law and order is so, so, so important. And so being able to secure your own people, not worrying about attacks, having a bunch of friendly nations who say, like, if I'm in the Middle east, or let's say they flew me over to advice. I would say, guys, listen, I'm an American, obviously want America to win. But let me give you some advice. You've got to start messaging to your own people that the next 100 years belong to the Middle east, that you point out how you've been able to aggregate all the capital. Start telling a story. It's a true story, but you need to mythologize it. Start telling the story of we crawled our way out of the desert as like Bedouin herders and through this incredible resource. We were able to, over the last 100 years, regain control of our destiny, turn this into an incredible industry. But it's an industry that doesn't last forever. But we're going to turn that oil money into something magical in the same way that the US Taught sand to think, which is really true. We're going to turn sand into investment dollars, and we're going to modernize the entire Middle East. But it requires this stability. But we are going to prosper in a diversified fashion. We are not going to be beholden to just one thing that could be disrupted by one little choke point. No, no. We're never getting put in that position again. And if you can tell that story, oh, my God. Because it. It really is true. And so I saw your face when I said that the US Taught sand to think. Silicon is made from sand. Silicon chips have become actual intelligence.
Drew
Yeah.
Tom Bilyeu
If you were an alien looking down at us, you'd be like, how did sand just colonize the world? Like, there's a really compelling argument that says wheat colonized humans, got humans to. Or tamed humans, got them to do their bidding. It's pretty funny when you look at it that way, because they got us to stay in one place, to cultivate them, to do anything and everything that we could to keep them replicating and make sure that they were safe and sound and all that. And then the sand has found a way to get humans to harvest it and turn it into intelligence. It's wild. It is wild. So if the Middle east can do that, the next century really could be theirs. It is a question of will the US get their together? Highly unlikely. Will China really pull this off? Maybe. Will the Middle east be able to shut down Iran, chill out the theocratic craziness and leverage the insane amount of capital? I don't think people understand just how much capital they've amassed. Can they deploy that capital and change their reputation on the global stage as, like, the place to go to? If they pull that off, it really could be an incredible century.
Drew
And you know the great thing about what's happening with all this on the world stage? The dog has been taking down Epstein files. Now the truth comes out.
Tom Bilyeu
I wish it were the dog. That would be amazing.
Drew
Oh, doj. That's what I said.
Tom Bilyeu
Do Double J.
Drew
The DOJ has been taking down the Epstein files, per cbs.
Tom Bilyeu
This is wild.
Drew
I was looking at this net Yahoo clip and the goyim probably got me. Now that we are at war, delete the files. So it's one of those things where the distractions. And then I don't know if you've seen the Clinton deposition where he was reminiscing over the pictures too much. This is too. Let me see that again. Let me see it again. But he says something very interesting.
Tom Bilyeu
I really can't believe he asked to see it again. That is wild. And like, he's got that crazy smile on his face.
Drew
Yeah, but this was what was crazier. I didn't really know Ghislaine and Jeffrey. I was cool with the Rothschilds. And I'm like, bro, you're going the wrong way. Like, you're not supposed to say that part out loud.
Tom Bilyeu
That's not going to be popular.
Drew
But here's a quote.
Tom Bilyeu
She stated that President Clinton was her friend, not Epstein's friend. Is that accurate? I would say that it was accurate to say that I felt closer to her than to him. And for the record, why was that? Because I had seen her more and because she was very good friends with Evelyn Rothschild and his wife Lynn, whom I knew and was in regular touch with. She stated that. So the web of power, man, the web of power is really discomforting. It's very weird and it's very real. But there really is just something about the people that you spend time in the room with. You're going to do deals with. They're going to be the people that you think about. And the amount of power that's in that is crazy. Is crazy. And I forget which one of the Rothschilds it was that said, listen, politics are the seat of power. And if you. As the. Because he was it Nathaniel that scattered his kids, but one of them scattered his kids to five different countries to start banks. It was really brilliant. And this is where I wish people would stop with the Israel brain rot and just be like, even if you want to just focus on the. The Rothschild. They ran a brilliant strategy. Brilliant. And diversify your risk by being in different regions. So if one of the regions is collapsing, then your brothers can help you out. And they did exactly that. Absolutely brilliant. And one of them was like, hey, we really need to have relationships with politicians as like a matter of family principle. And so they then would insert themselves into political spheres. In fact, the very first, the one that came, generated the first wealth and got them out of the ghetto. Did so because he was like an art collector or rare coin collector or something. For one of the. One of the people in the Royal Court. I forget the names, but it was like, oh, shit. Like, that's really interesting. So he learns very early on, like because I have this one client that has all this money and I can do this incredible thing for him, I'm able to generate all this wealth for the family. And so that's how it ends up starting. He pulls them all out of the ghetto that ends up becoming the Rothschild banking fortune. And so yeah, getting, getting people. Even if all you're doing is instead of like having it be like this trip switch that trips in your brain every time you hear the word Rothschild. There's nothing mystical happening. So these are people that have like a set of rules about how they engage with the world that we see playing out now. Like with funding the protests and all that stuff. It's people that understand, okay, this is. I'm going to leverage my money to do this thing and map those webs of power, understand how they work. It can obviously become incredibly toxic and then you want to make sure that it's drug out into the light of day. Everybody sees exactly what this is so that we can stop being manipulated by it. But to understand its power, I mean I think about this a lot as a business guy. One of my big weaknesses as an entrepreneur is I just don't have the impulse to network. I mean nobody knows that better than you, my long suffering producer. I tried to cancel the trip to the uk. You shot that down. And so it literally and I think you will vouch for me it. And I'm not. This isn't a point of pride. It just. So it creates a weakness in that I don't network with other people. And therefore when I like am trying to do something that requires a big network, I'm like, I just can't do it. That's why I have to run a media company company because I'm not going to be able to get somebody to let me on their show. I've got to have my own show. I just don't keep friends with people like that. But it protects me from like you're not going to see my name in the Epstein files because I'm just not connected to anybody. So it's like good and bad. Anyway I, I don't have this unending obsession with getting people to look at all the evil horrific as just. Just more simple, easy to track rather than thinking there's you know like deep conspiracy and we're summoning Sumerian demons and like that like what the. Like make contact with the simplicity of these guys just hang out with each other and they do that you would hate and so pay attention to how these guys hang out together. They'll send a messenger forward, but it really represents, like, all these guys in a room talking. So just figure out who's connected to who. What are the likely economics motivations that they have. It becomes far easier to understand what's going on.
Drew
One thing we can all understand is the look on this guy's face when he was looking at that picture.
Tom Bilyeu
This is hilarious.
Drew
We have all been there when you find, you know, that picture in the backyard cabinet or something. Look at this. You scroll her Instagram up. Let me get a little look.
Tom Bilyeu
Does he not know he's on.
Drew
She had that good guy. He didn't even turn the page.
Tom Bilyeu
He just looked his finger.
Drew
He didn't even turn the page.
Tom Bilyeu
I. What is he thinking? She even has, like, a wry little smile. She knows. She's like. She's shaking her head. She's like. She's already back at the partners meeting going like, this fucking guy. Like, even though I took. He knows we talked ahead of time about what the fucking signals would be if I ever nudge you, kick you under the table, pull my earlobe, or fucking grab something out of your hands. For the love of fucking God, will you please just let it go? He couldn't. You know that he knows things that he's going to get himself in trouble by talking about. And you're really trying to shut that down now. If they had said to him, like, calmly before, you know, like, if you put your hand over the mic and you're like, listen, keep your answers succinct. That's just good advice.
Drew
Yeah.
Tom Bilyeu
Because you're likely to say something that can be used against you, especially out of context. But. But if that's the first time that he said something, then that's like, ooh, buddy. That means that we talked about this beforehand and you're going off script. And that means that we all know there's a thing.
Drew
There's a script.
Tom Bilyeu
Yeah. So nice. Not. Not super good. But him look, because you can spin. And who knows what's really true? But you can spin the Clinton thing that, like, the smile is. They're trying to trap me with this. Like, this is ridiculous. Because he does start to say something to that effect before he ends up getting cut off. And so I don't know if that's. Anyway, that one's easy to tell a story around. Whether it's a lie or not, it's irrelevant. But the. It doesn't matter. The clip looks so bad out of context that he just looks like a fucking impossible pervert to be really blank.
Drew
Cool.
Tom Bilyeu
That's it for today. Thank you guys for being here. You guys are amazing. Peace. Let's talk about a pattern that is guaranteed to be killing your progress. You know what you need to do? You need consistent nutrition. We all do. You need vitamins, probiotics, greens. We all know that we should be doing more of it. When your morning gets chaotic, you skip it. When you travel, you skip it. When your routine breaks, everything tends to break. And that inconsistency compounds against you every single day. AG1 is designed to solve the execution problem. One scoop 8 ounces of water and you're done. You're getting 75 plus ingredients, vitamins and minerals, pre and probiotics, nutrient dense superfoods. Everything that used to require six, seven different supplements and perfect planning now happens in one drink that takes about 30 seconds to make. Right now, AG1 is giving you $87 worth of free gifts with your first subscription. You get a welcome kit, travel pack, vitamin D3 plus K2 and flavor samples. Click the link in the show notes or visit drinkag1.comimpact to claim this offer.
Host: Tom Bilyeu
Co-Host: Drew
Date: March 6, 2026
This Impact Theory episode, hosted by Tom Bilyeu (with producer Drew), dives into the unfolding war involving Iran, the reshaping of global power dynamics, and how economics, artificial intelligence, and narrative control interact in this high-stakes era. Tom cuts through media-driven narratives, examining the real drivers behind Iran’s strategy, US and UK power maneuvers, economic disruption, and the shadowy forces operating behind the scenes. The episode emphasizes the need for clear analysis in a world of information warfare and rampant misinformation, making sense of the chaos through hard evidence and first-principle thinking.
In this high-velocity, intellectually dense episode, Tom Bilyeu peels back the war headlines to reveal a world where economic interests, elite networks, and strategic narrative all determine the fate of countries and technologies. The Iran conflict, he argues, is less about religion or nukes, and more about safeguarding American AI’s trillion-dollar engine, with Iran executing a calculated campaign to disrupt that flow through regional havoc. Tom cautions listeners: In this new era, truth is layered beneath official messaging—always follow the money, know the history of power, and look for the real drivers beneath the surface narratives.