Podcast Summary

Podcast: Tom Bilyeu’s Impact Theory
Episode: Why America’s Enemies Smell Blood: CIA Secrets, Economic Warfare, and the Next World War | Andrew Bustamante PT 2
Date: June 4, 2025
Host: Tom Bilyeu
Guest: Andrew Bustamante (Former CIA Covert Officer)

Episode Overview

In this high-stakes, insightful conversation, Tom Bilyeu sits down with ex-CIA operative Andrew Bustamante to dissect the hidden levers shaping global conflict, power, and influence in 2025. The episode explores how nations use covert strategies—including economic manipulation, information warfare, biological research, and alliances— to vie for supremacy. Bustamante brings real-world intelligence experience, explaining how these dynamics impact not just world leaders but everyday people, and offering “spy tactics” for personal empowerment. The episode addresses tough questions about American global decline, China’s ambitions, the fragmentation of Western alliances, and whether democracy as we know it is in jeopardy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Morality and Strategy of Bio-Weapons & COVID-19 Origins

Timestamps: 01:00–10:51

• Bilyeu probes the controversial theory that U.S. funding of gain-of-function research in Wuhan could have been a strategic move to gain intelligence or leverage, not merely incompetence or oversight.
• Bustamante: Emphasizes moral flexibility among nations. Treaties ban chemical and biological weapons, but “people are still developing options”— pointing to the weaponization of space as precedent (02:11).
• Multiple layers of motivation are explored:
  • The U.S. may fund “bad” research abroad to monitor and counter it.
  • It’s plausible both nations supported research, for defensive, scientific, or even offensive purposes.
• Bustamante quote:
  “We allow bad guys to do bad shit because we know they're doing bad shit, and we can develop the counter as they're developing the offensive weapon.” (04:32)
• The discussion shifts to China’s rationale: leveraging population size, managing aging demographics, and the strategic value of controlling a pandemic and the response data.

2. COVID’s Real Global Consequence: Exposing Supply Chain Weakness

Timestamps: 07:57–10:51

• Bustamante argues COVID’s transformative impact was to reveal global dependence on China for manufacturing and logistics.
• “Covid changed the world because it showed the entire world, we had let China become the center of the hub and spoke model for the entire globe. And now we've all been trying to fix that.” (10:36)

3. Global Power Realignment: Decline of US Influence, Rise of “Counter-West”

Timestamps: 14:13–19:45

• The world is in flux—American supremacy is fading, and powerful new alliances (China, Iran, Russia, North Korea) are actively contesting Western dominance.
• Bustamante relishes the historic moment:
  “We are sitting at such an intensely interesting time … we are watching the decline of American supremacy.” (14:19)
• European and Western democracies are increasingly fractured, torn between strongman rule and populist movements, while non-democratic states (Saudi Arabia, Russia, China) gain cohesion and global sway.

4. Democracy vs. Strongman Leadership: A Worldwide Identity Crisis

Timestamps: 15:14–19:45, 45:54–50:23

• Erosion of traditional democratic cohesion is highlighted across NATO, Europe, and even the U.S.
• Countries are electing leaders not for policies, but for their stance relative to global personalities (pro-/anti-Trump).
• Bustamante:
  “The people can't decide: do we want democracy or do we want strongman leadership?” (17:20)

5. The Economics of War: Wartime as an Engine, Not Just a Catastrophe

Timestamps: 18:09–19:45, 36:53–41:09

• Russia’s economy, though shaken, is reportedly stronger than a decade ago due to the "wartime economy".
• Memorable Moment: Discussion of how nations, including China, observe Russia’s tactics in Ukraine as proof that “slow, protracted wars” can be strategically viable.

6. China as America’s Top Strategic Threat

Timestamps: 24:11–27:52, 31:03–41:09

• Bilyeu: Questions if concerns about China are paranoia or pragmatism.
• Bustamante:
  “Right now, China is the single largest threat to the United States … there’s a huge narrative bias in media where they try to soften it, but they’re our largest threat.” (24:51)
• The U.S. is shifting policy focus and military doctrine to “degrade China”—not just general adversaries.
• The "Thucydides Trap": China’s rise creates a scenario almost inevitably tilting toward conflict with the U.S.
• China’s Belt and Road Initiative is reframed as a covert infrastructure for dual military/civilian use in the Americas.

7. Spy Tactics and Economic Warfare: Applying Porter’s Five Forces to Geopolitics

Timestamps: 36:53–41:09

• Trump’s tariff strategy is explained via buyer power. China seeks seller power and “substitution”, trying to be an alternative to U.S. dominance, especially in Latin America.
• Bustamante notes China’s state-run enterprise system allows seamless integration of military and commercial operations—unlike the US separation.

8. Middle East Geopolitics: The Proxy Game and Iran’s Duel with Saudi Arabia

Timestamps: 41:09–44:55

• Iran occupies a pivotal, but shaky, position:
  • Breadbasket of the region, funding proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah.
  • Their main enemy: Saudi Arabia (not the U.S.).
• Iran’s proxies have been weakened, but opportunities exist for rebuilding as regional war distracts attention.

9. China-Iran Relations and Strategic Partnerships

Timestamps: 44:55–45:39

• China is Iran’s main buyer of oil, and Iran gets tech support from China.
• The relationship is pragmatic, not ideological, but key for both states’ leverage in the global balance.

10. The Fractured West: Can the U.S. and Europe Defend Their Values?

Timestamps: 45:31–52:16

• Bustamante doubts Western resolve or unity in defending stated democratic values.
• “Even Europe, even NATO can’t fucking agree right now. Not America to Europe and most definitely not within Europe itself.” (45:39)
• America’s post-WWII model of dominance has unintentionally made allies weak and dependent—now leaving both exposed.
• China, meanwhile, is building commercial/military infrastructure globally (notably in South America).

11. Trump’s Performance and Style as President

Timestamps: 50:23–52:16

• Bustamante gives Trump a solid B:
  • Impressed by unconventional, high-risk leadership.
  • Suggests US media and public are “systematically made ignorant of what actually matters”.
  • “What actually matters is is that person willing and able to leverage the capabilities of your country to give you a better probability of success in the future. I think Donald Trump is doing that.” (50:32)

Notable Quotes

• “We allow bad guys to do bad shit because we know they're doing bad shit, and we can develop the counter as they're developing the offensive weapon.”
  — Andrew Bustamante (04:32)

• “Covid changed the world because it showed the entire world, we had let China become the center of the hub and spoke model for the entire globe. And now we've all been trying to fix that.”
  — Andrew Bustamante (10:36)

• "We are sitting at such an intensely interesting time ... we are watching the decline of American supremacy.”
  — Andrew Bustamante (14:19)

• "The people can't decide: do we want democracy or do we want strongman leadership?"
  — Andrew Bustamante (17:20)

• "Right now, China is the single largest threat to the United States … there’s a huge narrative bias in media where they try to soften it, but they’re our largest threat."
  — Andrew Bustamante (24:51)

• "Even Europe, even NATO can't fucking agree right now. Not America to Europe and most definitely not within Europe itself."
  — Andrew Bustamante (45:39)

Memorable Moments

• Tom’s raw inquiry about the cold logic behind potential mass casualties for the sake of national power:
  “Could you see a world in which power brokers go, all right, we’re going to kill a few hundred thousand, maybe a million people with the vaccine, but we’re going to understand how it works?” (06:16)

• Bustamante’s pragmatic dissection of China’s flexibility and willingness to play the long game:
  “If we develop it, we win. If we develop it and it leaks, we still win. And if we develop it and it leaks and it travels around the world … unless we’re also the ones that have the vaccine for it. And then we win again.” (08:54)

• The candid assessment of American and European ignorance:
  “Americans have been systematically made ignorant of what actually matters. What actually matters is not the words that come out of somebody's mouth.” (50:32)

Important Timestamps

• 01:00 – Opening on moral ambiguity, bio-weapons, and trusting global institutions
• 02:11 – Weaponization of space as historical precedent
• 07:57 – China’s demographic and strategic calculations
• 10:36 – COVID exposes global dependency on China
• 14:19 – The new anti-Western power base
• 17:20 – Democratic crisis across the West
• 24:51 – China, the #1 threat to the U.S.
• 31:52 – China’s timing: “they’re in a stronger position now”
• 36:53 – Porter’s Five Forces and economic warfare
• 41:23 – Iran’s position in the Middle East
• 45:39 – Europe’s fragmentation and America’s postwar strategy backfiring
• 50:32 – Trump’s leadership: “doing more for America than America gives him credit for”

Conclusion

This episode offers an unflinching look at the realities of global power, showing listeners how covert tactics, economic leverage, and shifting values are redrawing the world order. Bustamante’s intelligence background provides unique, actionable insight—both into what’s likely to unfold on the world stage and how individuals can think more critically and strategically about the forces shaping their lives.

Find more from Andrew Bustamante at Everyday Spy on all platforms.