Why Ideological Direction Matters: Tom and Drew Chart the Slippery Slope of American Politics

Summary

Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu

Episode: Why Ideological Direction Matters: Tom and Drew Chart the Slippery Slope of American Politics
Date: November 14, 2025

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Tom Bilyeu and co-host Drew dive deep into the nuances and dangers of ideological drift in American politics. Using timely headlines and recent political developments, they examine how both left- and right-wing ideologies can transform — and why the direction and amplitude (i.e., the potential magnitude of consequences) of these shifts matter more than many realize. Focusing especially on figures like Trump and New York City mayor Mamdani, Tom argues that ideologies often pave the way for consequences far more severe than most anticipate, with chilling historical examples as reference points. The discussion probes why some ideological trajectories (“the slippery slope”) are more dangerous than others, how American political identity is changing, and what citizens should be vigilant about.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump, Epstein, and Ideological Blind Spots

[01:09–04:22]

• Breaking news: Newly-revealed emails suggest Jeffrey Epstein believed Trump was aware of inappropriate activity.
• Tom emphasizes that even if new evidence emerges, it may not significantly sway public opinion given Trump's past behavior.
  • “There’s no, like, coming clean for him…there’s no, like, exoneration in that way.” — Tom [03:30]
  • Notable: Tom draws a line between Epstein’s monstrous acts and Trump’s lack of boundaries with women.

2. The Dangers of Ideological Directionality

[05:09–11:26]

• Tom underscores the importance of not just present actions (“policy amplitude”) but the direction a politician’s ideology points.
  • Highlights how certain ideologies, when played out, lead to mass atrocities (citing Stalin, Mao, and famine caused by central planning).
  • Recommends three books: The Gulag Archipelago, Tombstone/Mao: The Unknown Story, and Red Famine to understand the consequences of communism/socialism.
  • “If you kill me, that knowledge goes with me. And now you starve... It is distressingly easy to kill a lot of people.” — Tom [07:29]
• Tom draws comparison between public figures: Nick Fuentes’ self-declared love of Stalin (dealbreaker) and people’s blind airbrushing of ideological risks.

3. Taking People at Their Word

[11:26–12:06]

• Tom discusses the principle of believing what individuals say about their own ideological commitments.
  • Example: Ye (Kanye West) and his comments about the Jewish community.
  • “When somebody tells you who they are, you can believe them.” — Tom [10:24]

4. Comparing Authoritarian and Radical Left Dangers

[15:51–23:56]

• Drew challenges Tom: Is it a double standard to judge the left by possible worst-case outcomes (slippery slope doom) and the right (specifically Trump) mostly by their present intentions?
• Tom responds by emphasizing the “amplitude” of risk. Trump’s moves are often “stupid and bad,” but, he argues, the ideological endpoint is different from historical communist atrocities.
  • “Play this person's personality out all the way... if you play Trump's personality out all the way, he does not go to Hitler.” — Tom [19:34]
• However, Tom is clear Trump exhibits authoritarian “tendencies,” primarily fixated on profit and state intervention. He warns against government controlling corporate equity, drawing analogies to China’s state-sponsored capitalism.
  • “Trump should absolutely not marry the state to corporations. That’s terrible. Immediately stop. Don’t do it. Bang drums.” — Tom [23:04]

5. Slippery Slopes on the Left

[23:56–29:49]

• Tom argues the real danger from the current left isn’t the individuals but the ideologies gaining energy (e.g., DSA, socialism/communism).
• Analogy: Policies that sound good (free buses, rent freezes, closing jails) open the door for more radical, potentially catastrophic ends.
  • “Mamdani is not going to kill people… the path of an ideology that, by its nature, becomes that murderous.”
• Historical point: Mao and Stalin’s atrocities are less “publicly acknowledged” compared to Hitler, even though their death tolls were far greater. Tom’s issue: why certain left atrocities “hide in plain sight.”
  • “How have they hidden in plain sight?” — Tom [26:11]

6. The Necessity of Open Debate and Ideological Immunity

[27:27–30:41]

• Tom insists on confronting bad ideas through argument, not censorship.
  • “If you can’t win through argumentation, then shut the fuck up and sit down.” — Tom [28:11]
• Calls for respectful treatment of individuals like Mamdani, railing against personal animosity while reserving the right to rigorously challenge dangerous ideologies.

7. Balance, Amplitude, and the Limits of Binary Thinking

[30:04–36:54]

• Tom responds to accusations of “double standard”—he admits being more afraid of socialism/communism than state-controlled capitalism but is intellectually aware of his bias.
  • “Binary thinking is very useful... but if you don’t take amplitude into account, you are going to be eternally confused by the world.” — Tom [30:04]
• Drew offers the evolution of the Tea Party to MAGA as evidence for how fringe ideologies gain dominance, agreeing that left-wing energy could similarly move the Democratic party.

8. Nordic Socialism, DSA vs. Project 2025

[38:10–42:48]

• Tom debunks the myth that Nordic countries represent “true” socialism — they are high-tax, capitalist societies, not state-controlled economies.
  • “The Nordic countries are not socialist... it's all private markets all the time, but everyone is taxed to death.” — Tom [39:00]
• Compares leftist DSA ambitions to right-wing Project 2025 and argues for respecting the clarity about ideological self-identification.

9. Abolish the Family? Ideological Outliers

[42:48–45:14]

• Tom spotlights disturbing leftist policy ambitions like “abolishing the family,” arguing this erodes the pillars of civilization and risks repeating the horrors of 20th-century collectivization.
  • “That is, hey, let’s take that pillar that all of society stands on. Let’s break that.” — Tom [42:48]

10. 50-Year Mortgages, Housing, and Societal Decline

[45:28–50:16]

• Trump’s proposal for 50-year mortgages: Tom decries this as symptomatic of systemic sickness (akin to “insulin for type 2 diabetes”).
  • Advocates for building more housing and policing effectively rather than financial manipulations.
• Raises concerns about immigrants receiving mortgages and how policy definitions can obscure public understanding.

11. Societal Life Rafts and Economic Survival

[50:22–56:10]

• Tom likens financial survival strategies in a collapsing economy to grabbing a life raft on a sinking Titanic, but worries that most people can’t solve the “code” to access them.
  • “There are enough life rafts for everyone… but there is a weird fucking code.” — Tom [51:57]
• Advocates for actively plugging fiscal “holes” (especially deficit spending), condemns the normalization of living only for individual safety.

12. Modern Monetary Theory Lampooned

[56:10–58:19]

• Tom plays and ridicules a clip of a Biden economic advisor’s confused attempt to explain Modern Monetary Theory.
  • “This video radicalized me… that is someone who’s like, the Titanic is sinking, I want to make this hole bigger.” — Tom [58:31]
• Admits the US economy is horrifically complex, but basics like “government prints money and spends it” shouldn’t trip up experts.

13. Tariff Dividend Stimulus and Economic Ramifications

[63:07–end]

• Discusses rumors of new “tariff dividend” checks if Trump returns — Tom and Drew anticipate asset bubbles, market surges, but stress it does not create real wealth.
  • “Stock market’s going to pump... Assets are going to pump everywhere. It won't be real wealth because we are still just gaining so much debt.” — Tom [64:01]
• Tom would tolerate such political expediency only if debt-to-GDP is trending downward.
  • “If they’re getting debt to GDP going down, … I’m not a one issue voter but I’m very close.” — Tom [64:45]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On evidentiary impact and Trump:
  “There’s no line with women I’m comfortable with… Trump does not have a line with women that I’m comfortable with… so yeah, there’s no coming clean for him.” (Tom, [03:10])
• On ideology as destiny:
  “The directionality of Mamdani shows me that the idea of socialism and communism is gaining steam… If you read any three of those books, you’ll walk away going ‘oh, got it, this kills at a level that makes Hitler look like the Junior Death Squad.’” (Tom, [06:11])
• On how public communications are disguised:
  “Hitler yells into a microphone — he sounds like a sociopath… When Mao says, 'I love everybody, I’m gonna make buses free,' what I hear is, that’s what fucking Mao said. Mao, hidden in plain sight.” (Tom, [26:17])
• On amplitude versus intent:
  “Amplitude, motherfuckers. Amplitude… That’s why I freak out — how have they hidden in plain sight?” (Tom, [20:38] [26:11])
• On the double standard critique:
  “Binary thinking is very useful...but if you don’t take amplitude into account, you are going to be eternally confused by the world.” (Tom, [30:04])
• On extreme left and right ideologies:
  “The DSA is what Project 2025 is on the right… But at this point, I think if you read Project 2025 and you hate it, that’s what’s happening.” (Drew and Tom, [41:42])
• Personal Philosophy:
  “If you can’t win through argumentation, then shut the fuck up and sit down.” (Tom, [28:11])

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:09] – Epstein/Trump emails and the problem of character
• [05:09] – Tom’s “amplitude” theory and dangerous ideological directionality
• [11:26] – Believing people when they state their ideology
• [15:51] – Parsing Trump’s actions vs. those of the radical left
• [23:56] – The murderous logic of extremist left ideologies
• [27:27] – Mamdani as a symptom, not cause; open debate vs. censorship
• [30:04] – Addressing accusations of double standards, amplitude, and bias
• [36:54] – How fringe politics take over parties: Tea Party to MAGA
• [38:10] – Why Nordic countries aren’t “true socialists”
• [42:48] – “Abolish the family” and the social ramifications
• [45:28] – 50-year mortgage proposal and systemic financial illness
• [50:22] – Life raft analogy: Economic safety and public ignorance
• [56:10] – Modern Monetary Theory lampooned
• [63:07] – Effect of proposed tariff stimulus checks

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Conclusion

This episode is an expansive, passionate exploration of where America may be heading — not just based on what leaders have done, but where their ideological “directionality” suggests they’re going. Tom repeatedly calls for both historical awareness and intellectual honesty, warning that ignoring ideological trends (left or right) is perilous. Above all, the episode is a clarion call: debate ideologies openly, understand the stakes, and recognize that the worst outcomes in history emerged from seemingly innocuous seeds.

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For further reading:

• The Gulag Archipelago by Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
• Red Famine by Anne Applebaum
• Tombstone: The Great Chinese Famine, 1958–1962 by Yang Jisheng

Listen to the full episode to witness Tom’s vigorous style, open debate, and the urgency he feels about America’s current crossroads.

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

Let's jump into it. So, Trump, what's the breaking news?

[A]

I don't know about.

[B]

Trump knew about the girls. Jeffrey Epstein says in an email.

[A]

Wait, they found an email.

[B]

Newly released emails from a 2019 When Jeffrey Epstein told author Michael Wolf that his ex that his ex friend preached. President Donald Trump knew about the girls. Epstein in 2011 In a 2011 email to a now convicted procure. How do you say her name? Ghis Maxwell. I want you to realize that the dog that hasn't barked is Trump. I'm tired this morning, guys. Sorry. Epstein told Maxwell that a victim of his spent hours at my house with Trump. The email says. So this is saying that they have email proof. I'm looking for an actual thing of the email, but if we do have actual email evidence that says that, you know, Epstein is insinuating that Trump knew about it. Does this change things? Is this kind of too little too late?

[A]

Well, here's the really bad news. Don't we already know he knew about the girls? Because there was like some beef where he said, like, you've got to stop taking the girls out of this place. He distanced himself from him. He kicked him out of Mar a Lago. I think the headline level was he kicked him out because he didn't like the way that he was treating women. That was my understanding. But as a psa, I heard with my own ears Trump say you grab them in the hoo ha. Yes. So, boys and girls, Trump does not have a line with women that I'm comfortable with. So I'm gonna guess that no one is gonna like what they find. Like, if you could have godlike powers and just read every thought and know every, like, true thing, you're not gonna be like, oh, he's such a good guy. You're gonna be skeeved in the extreme. Now, maybe you're not as skeeved out as you are by Epstein, who really seems monstrous, but. And Trump, just from where I'm sitting, just has a bad track record with that. Like, bro, you can't say, grab him in the hoo ha. You can't. Like, that's crazy. Not only can you not say it, I'm gonna guess he said it because he actually did it. And then to make it even worse, you want to know the really, really, really bad part? I bet he thought it was a turn on for them. And that is just an unforgivable misunderstanding of women. So not only is it sexual assault, it's just horrific on every conceivable level. So, yeah, I don't. There's no, like, coming clean for him. There's no, like, exoneration in that way. Now he's gonna say yes. I knew that he had some impropriety with the women. I had no idea how bad it was, and I still wanted him to get away. So this isn't gonna be the smoking gun that takes him down, um, because we got over the grabbing the hoo ha. So the only thing is he's gotta release the fucking files, man. Gotta release the files.

[B]

He's in em.

[A]

At least the files.

[B]

He's in em.

[A]

Obviously. Obviously. Obviously.

[B]

We'll keep monitoring it. When new stuff has rolls out, we'll get to it. But literally we just learned that right now. Thanks to the chat and Mason for pulling that up. We'll keep figuring it out.

[A]

Yeah, a unbalanced budget steals from everybody and is a reverse Robin Hood and gives to the rich. It's like, well, we know we can't do that. So anybody morally. I just. That that's my belief. Obviously, Mamdani, the socialists and communists completely disagree. And I think it is legitimately evil or a level of stupidity that cannot be forgiven.

[B]

So, I mean, technically, Trump doesn't agree because a big, beautiful bill added to the deficit too.

[A]

Yes. So where do you see? If you've ever heard me champion the big beautiful bill, let me know.

[B]

It's just that you threw a sh.

[A]

Mom.

[B]

Dani. Who doesn't have nearly as much control over the federal budget as somebody who actively is pushing about that.

[A]

Okay? So one thing I think you and I collide on all the time is directionality. So the directionality of Mamdani shows me that the idea of socialism and communism is gaining steam. And there. There really are three books. If people read those three books, they. They are either murderously evil in their own way, or they'll walk away going, oh, shit. Okay, well though, that. Those options are completely off the table. And that would be the Gulag Archipelago. Usually I'll say the Rise and Fall third, right? But for this, I'll say Tombstone. Or you can read the alternative mao, the Unknown Story, and then the Red Famine. If you read any three of those books, you'll walk away going, oh, got it. Like this kills at a level that makes Hitler look like the Junior Death Squad. Like, it is insane how many people. Ma, Lenin, Stalin, those guys, they knew how to kill. Like, bro, you don't. Gas chambers like that is some old school barbaric. Just starve people to death. You know how much faster you can kill people if you starve them? Cyclone B. Like what? Like you got to have a supply chain. You got to order that. All you have to do to starve tens of millions of people. You go in and you're like, who are the best farmers here? Oh, it's those seven. Yeah, the ones with like the bigger plow and the extra horse. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Fuck those kids, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Greedy. I'm just going to shoot them. Bang, bang, bang. Seven people dead. Everyone starves because skills have utility. And the guy that knows how to get the extra plow, the guy that farms better than you and therefore has some extra cows and extra horses. What he's saying is, I know how to do things you don't know how to do. And so if you kill me, that knowledge goes with me. And now you starve. And I bet people think I'm kidding and I'm not. Read the books and you'll be like, holy shit. It is distressingly easy to kill a lot of people. So anyway, when I see Mamdani, I'm like, oh, here's a guy who. This is how I feel about Nick Fuentes. I was on the fence about Nick Fuentes. I didn't fucking know. I paid attention to him. Sounded racist as shit. But, like, I used to think Jordan Peterson was a misogynist. And I just hadn't looked at him. So I was like, look, I haven't looked at the kid probably racist, but, like, I haven't done a deep dive. And then he said, I love me some December 18th because big fan of Stalin and that's his birthday. I was like, peace, I'm out. Like, what do you do with that? If. If somebody wants to date my sister and they roll in and they're like, yo, Ted Bundy, big fan, big fan. I'm like, get the out. No more words. Like, we're done. You don't get to date my sister. So I don't understand how people aren't like, ooh, Mom. Donnie is saying he actually believes the things that those guys believed that ended up killing all those fucking people. You. You have to read the books. When you read them, you're like, there's a story in red. Red Famine is the only book that I ever realized, oh, I can't read this at night. Remember when I go to bed, I put in headphones and I'm reading at all times. So if people are wondering how I read so much, that's how. I do not absorb anything while I'm asleep. So please don't think that I do. But in the 10 or 15 minutes while I'm falling asleep, and then the call it 15 or 20 minutes after I wake up, like, that's a big chunk of my reading. And I had to stop reading that book at night because it was keeping me awake. Because one night I woke up at like 2 in the morning and usually the book kicks in and it lulls me back to sleep. That one kicked in and it was a story of a woman who was eating her own seven year old daughter. And I was like, yep, I'm out. So that'll keep you awake. So that's what happens when you seize the means of production. That's what happens when you say, rich people are just evil instead of going, hmm, they know how to do something I don't know how to do. Which, by the way, 70% of all billionaires are self made. So these are people, they know how to do something you don't know how to do. And you would be very wise to go, what is that thing? Because I would like to learn that skill. Now luck and timing are gonna play a part of it. So maybe adopting that skill does not ever make you a billionaire, but can it make you a couple hundred grand? Probably. So, yeah, that would be why I'm gonna keep beating that drum and why those arguments will never be persuasive to me. Because he is on that path. And I know that path only ends in one place, it. The physics of life tell you that that can only end in one place. Because skills have utility.

[B]

Brutus. Lugo. Right on time, Tom.

[A]

I guess it was in all caps.

[B]

Tom, you want us to make these wild assumptions about the direction Mamdani is going when he hasn't done anything yet.

[A]

Do I? Do I want us to make these wild assumptions? So here. Here's a base assumption I have. When somebody tells you who they are, you can believe them. Now, if Brutus is like, bro, just because somebody tells you that they are a socialist, just because somebody quotes the Communist Manifesto doesn't mean that they're a socialist. Doesn't mean that they believe in communism. Okay? But that's not the world I live in. There was a young man by the name of Yeezy. And one night before he went to bed, he said, I'm gonna go DEFCON 3. DEFCON 3. Can't remember DEFCON 3. I think on the Jews he went, ham on the Jews. So that was like. Okay. Like you could take him at his word. He was mad. He was going to do something about it. He was going to talk about it. And didn't go well for him, but he certainly did the thing. People tend to tell you what they do or what they're going to do that really does reveal something about who they are, so.

[B]

And now he's crying in the arms of rabbis.

[A]

I know. And look, maybe he really has turned around. And Lord knows that I'm open to that redemption arc. But it's like, unless Mom, Donnie is like, listen, these are why I said all those things. I now reject all of that. No free buses for you. Not because I can't get it passed with hokum, but because it's a terrible fucking idea. Because I have spent the time. What was the phrase? I educated myself. I educated myself how the economy actually works. I read the three books. Thank you to Tom Bilyeu for recommending three books. I read them and now I realize, oh, yeah, this is murderous ideology and I reject it wholeheartedly. So. But if Brutus has a different vibe.

[B]

That give us a part 2 to the super chat.

[A]

Quick break, but don't go anywhere. There's more to come after this short break from our sponsors. We'll get back to the show in a second. But first, let's talk about the hardest part of scaling any business. As a business owner, you never clock out. Your business is on your mind 24 7. So when you're hiring, you need a partner that works just as hard as you do, that partner is LinkedIn Jobs. When you clock out, LinkedIn clocks in. Bad hires kill momentum. Dead good hires accelerate everything. LinkedIn makes sure you get the good ones. Post your job for free and let LinkedIn's new feature help you write job descriptions that actually work. Then it gets your job in front of the right people with deep candidate insights. Plus you you can share with your entire network. Add a hiring frame to your profile picture and get two times more qualified candidates. Turn your network into your recruiting team. Over 2.5 million small businesses already use LinkedIn for hiring. They're finding their next great hires while their competitors are still posting on job boards that just don't work. Post your job for [e-mail] link impact theory that's LinkedIn.com impacttheory to post your job for free. Terms and conditions apply. Let's talk about getting the most out of your health data. Your Apple Watch collects an incredible amount of useful data, then does absolutely nothing with it. Bevel turns that data into intelligence. This is what your Apple Watch should have been doing from day one. Bevel consolidates everything into one platform. Sleep tracking, nutrition logging, fitness monitoring, recovery scores, habit tracking, stress levels all in one place instead of scattered across five different apps. Bevel's AI is proactive. It doesn't wait for you to ask questions. It analyzes your metrics in real time and tells you what you need to know. It holds you accountable to your goals. It remembers your lifestyle and tailors every suggestion specifically to you. And your data stays private, stored in your device, not on servers. Over 1 million people have downloaded Bevel and it has a 4.8 star rating. Head to Bevel Health Impact and use Code Impact to get your first month free. That's B E V E L Health Impact and be sure to use Code Impact. Let's talk about the one advantage that beats everything else in business. The market does not reward perfection. It rewards speed. Your competitor with a mediocre product who launches today is going to be your perfect product that launches in six months. So how do you win? Be the one who launches first with Shopify. Start with hundreds of ready to use templates that build a beautiful online store matching your brand style. Shopify's AI tools write product descriptions, page headlines and enhance your product photography instantly. Create email and social media campaigns like you have a marketing team behind you. Shopify's world class enterprise handles it automatically. No integration headaches, just start selling. Turn your big business idea into reality with Shopify on your side. Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling today at shopify.com impact. Go to shopify.com impact again shopify.com impact all right, thanks for sticking with us. Let's jump right back in.

[B]

So Tommy, want us to make these wild assumptions about the direction mom Dan is going when he hasn't done anything yet. But we have Trump doing actual communism and from you we don't get nearly the same energy.

[A]

Rightly so.

[B]

And then the, the things that he's doing now are just not dumb stupid, they're just dumb horrible.

[A]

But they're not on the same path. He's on a different dumb and bad path, but he is guided largely by profit. This is why I'm saying I'm a little. I am now having to parse through what do I think about people trying to run the government like a business. And that's where I'm like, my knee jerk reaction is that it's good, but I have unease and something tells me that I'm going to need to spend time with why I don't just go. It's an unmitigated good. So there's something there that I'm going to need to figure out. But let's talk about. This is the same conversation I was having with destiny where people need to understand amplitude of like a problem. So we need to bang the table loudly and proudly that Trump's big beautiful bill is a disaster and that he is perfectly willing to run a deficit. And that is really problematic. Now at the same time, we need to be intellectually honest and say Trump is also trying to make money for the US Government. Now you may not like the tariffs, understood. But they've generated hundreds of billions of dollars. So now you might say, but they're raising prices. Yeah, they probably are. The inevitability that that will have some inflation like effect. It is not the same. People need to stop conflating inflation with prices going up. But anyway, uh, it will have an inflation like effect because it will inevitably impact some prices. But the great news about tariffs is they are typically shared to some degree between the exporter and the importer. So it is a tax that you pay some percentage of. Is it 50%, is it 80%? Don't know. That is for economists to tell you. Uh, but it is traditionally shared in some meaningful amount which we have seen so far to be true. Okay, so you've got Trump who is buying up equity in companies. Terrible fucking idea. Straight out of China's playbook. I did a whole deep dive about it so people think I'm being quiet about it. They're just not watching enough content. Hey everybody, make sure that you're subscribed. So that is really stupid and I really hate it and that will really cause problems. And I have popped off about it a dozen times, but it isn't going to, in my estimation, it isn't going to end up being murderous. It's going to be terrible for the economy. We should absolutely not do it. But it is not going to lead to Trump shooting people for dissent. Nothing in the way that Trump is behaving makes me think that he's going to go into a room, be like, get on board with this or when I walk out, I'm going to shoot you. So technically he won't do the shooting. It'll be a guy.

[B]

And what about if he puts people in jail? He has suggested that all of that.

[A]

Stuff that he does is God awful. All the lawfare. If only we had an honorable man that and listen, maybe I need to look more closely at him. But the person to me that played this chef's kiss is Nelson Mandela. How could we don't deserve Nelson Mandela. At least as my read of the situation goes, locked in prison for 28 years, comes out and is like, no, we're not seeking retribution. We're gonna have to do truth and reconciliation. But this is not about retribution. He ends up putting white people on a security detail. Everyone's freaking out because they're like, they're gonna get you killed. But like all of that, like extension of grace and forgiveness and all that is exactly what you have to do. Trump is constitutionally incapable of doing that. That is a terrible fucking thing. So, uh huh, yeah, to, to understand me you have to understand like where do I think this goes? Like play this person's personality out all the way. And if you play Trump's personality out all the way, he does not go to Hitler. In my estimation, like again, read about Hitler.

[B]

What's the worst case scenario then? If we played out Trump leans into the communism.

[A]

Every press Trump is leaning like the communism. Trump is leaning into state controlled, more fascisty Hitlerian behaviors. So you, you did. Okay kids, I swear to God, I'm not going to say another word until you tell me back what I just fucking said.

[B]

He's going to lean into fascism. Hitlerian.

[A]

Yes, but you so yes, keep going. What was the word that I've used over and over?

[B]

Profit.

[A]

Amplitude motherfuckers. Amplitude. Like how he's not going to become Hitler. Let me tell you here's. Here's a real thing that Hitler did. He would walk into a room. Hey, Drew, I don't like the things you're saying. Are you on board? No.

[B]

Cool.

[A]

Bye. Thanks. Best of luck on everything. Hitler walks out the room, and it's like, why? Why'd the bodyguard stay? And then the bodyguard shoots you in the fucking face. And I'm saying, Trump's never going to do that. Yeah.

[B]

Never, ever, ever shoot people in cold.

[A]

If I end up being wrong, I'll be the first to admit it. Trump's never going to do that. It is not in his personality, in my opinion. So what I'm saying is you. I believe that. Mom, Donnie is either malevolent or ignorant. Either way, I don't care. And he actually believes you can freeze rent and make things better.

[B]

And you think he's going to get to that point?

[A]

He actually thinks that you can do less cops. He actually thinks that you can close Rikers Island. Like, he actually believes those things. They are so catastrophic that the amplitude of the problem is so much bigger. Okay, are we. This is not me saying, guys, what are you doing? Trump's amazing. Just fucking do everything he said. No, but you've got a guy over here doing sort of middling level stupid shit, and then you have a guy over here that. I'm like, ooh, the path that you're on. And he's not in office yet. I'm aware of that. But the path that you're on is murderous. It's murderous by nature. Now, we can all say Tom is wrong about that, but we can't say Tom is confused or Tom is inconsistent. I keep saying the same things over and over and over. Trump has authoritarian tendencies. Would you like to make a super compilation of all the fucking times I have said that? Trump has authoritarian. Authoritarian tendencies. We get a dozen examples at least. Right. So I've been banging that drum forever. So if you want to know what path he's on, he is on the path of China. Now, people are going to say, Baton China is communist. No, China is the Communist Party in name, but they used, guess what, capitalism to get out of poverty. And so what they have done is put the state inside of capitalism and said, if you ever get too out of pocket, I'm going to make you disappear.

[B]

Ok. And you think Trump is going to end up being that?

[A]

I think Trump. Worst case scenario, Trump is directionally in that place. If you said, hey, Trump locked up a big CEO because he said some shit that Trump didn't like, I'D be like, yeah, I fucking buy that. You don't have to push me hard to make me go, uh huh. That's the kind of thing that I could see Trump doing. That's terrible. That's really bad. We don't want that. No. Boo. Impeach. Get him out of office. Whatever you need. That is horrific. Trump should absolutely not marry the state to corporations. That's terrible. Immediately stop. Don't do it. Bang drums.

[B]

I feel like I got this side now. The worst case with Trump, okay, he's going to. He'll lock people up unwillfully. He'll turn into China. He'll reeducate some CEOs who dissent. But he's not gonna walk into a room and kill people. He's not gonna do mass genocides. He's not gonna set up gas chambers.

[A]

Correct.

[B]

Mamdani, you're saying because of the policies that they want. So no cops, open Rikers island, free buses, all these things. Once he plays those things out and they don't work, there's going to be a mob of people who dissent against him. And then he's gonna then be forced to kill people or get eaten alive. And that's why you think Mamdani's gonna.

[A]

Way too early. Mamdani is not going to kill people. There's no way. And if people think I'm saying he is path of an ideology that by its nature becomes that murderous. That's why I'm saying you want to ask me.

[B]

Oh, the ideology. So the no one in free prison is going to kill people. Not Mamdani himself, but he's going to usher that.

[A]

There's also that.

[B]

But I'm trying to. I'm trying to understand the murderous part.

[A]

So here. Here is my take on Mom. Dani, you once asked me directly about this. And so we have it on record from a while ago. I've called Mamdani a villain. And you said like, is he like the super villain? The end all villain, Something like that. And I said, no, the ideology is socialism, communism. That's your real problem. What I'm saying is Mamdani is the new face of that ideology gaining in popularity. Because I have an immunological response that is so extreme to that. I'm always going to freak out when I hear things about that. The right. When it goes like complete authoritarian. It's so visible, it's so obvious. Like, here's the question people need to ask. Mao and Stalin killed way more people than Hitler. I mean way more, man, way more. But Nobody thinks of them as murderers, but everyone thinks of Hitler as being, like, the worst thing ever. Now, Hitler is God awful. I mean, just unbearably evil and terrible. But the scale and the efficacy of his system when it comes to killing is chump change.

[B]

Can.

[A]

Is it Stalin? Ooh, buddy.

[B]

Okay. Is it like.

[A]

But it's. Hold on. Because the thing I want to make sure everybody's hearing me. The reason I freak out is, how have they hidden in plain sight? How?

[B]

Stalin and mouth.

[A]

Yes. How the fuck is that happening?

[B]

Just as bad as Hitler.

[A]

Because they say things that sound nice. Hitler yells into a microphone. He sounds like a sociopath. He signals I'm a sociopath. When Trump is bombing drone striking boats, and they're like, oh, we got another one. Everyone's like, the fuck is that? That is crazy.

[B]

Yay.

[A]

Super visible. Mom Donnie's like, I'm gonna make shit free. What do you mean? What the problem is, bro? I love everybody. I'm gonna make the buses free. They're gonna be fast. I'm gonna freeze rent. Come on, guys. This is all wonderful. And what I hear is, that's what fucking Mao said. So I'm just like, kids, Mao. Hidden, plain sight. Just murdering people left, right, and center. I'm not saying, mom, Donnie's gonna murder. In fact, I don't even have that. I don't think Mom Danny's gonna murder at all. Now, I. If he does, I will end up being like, whoa, I did not see that coming. Now I will say, yeah, ideology pretty much takes you down that path. But, no, I don't think that about Mom Danny. There's too many checks and balances. It's not where we're at right now. But I'm saying, play it on out long enough, swap in a couple people, generation down the road.

[B]

Yeah, so I'm getting like, Mamdani is the. At the beginning of the horror flick, Mamdani is a little kid that opens up the Ouija board and think he's just playing. And it's gonna bring up this whole. You know what I mean? Like, it's so it's not him that's doing it, but he's the ushering this, like, ideology that has a slippery slope that leads to hundreds of millions of people dying. Is that a better.

[A]

Like, you're getting closer? It's probably more like you're on a quest in a video game. And they say, all right, you need to first get the. The sword of drawing in order to call the demon forward. And it's like, Go talk to Mom Donnie and he'll give you the sword of drawing. So he's like just a part of all of this. I don't want to over like state what he is. He we called Momdani 4th Trump is a symptom. He's not the cause. Mamdani is a symptom. He's not the cause. Mom Donnie is not the cause. Nobody should go after Mom Donnie. Nobody should be wanting ill on him or anything like that. Mom Donnie should be treated with all the courtesy and respect that one would treat somebody, anybody. Your side or somebody else's side. You should want to debate the ideas. If you can't win through argumentation, then shut the fuck up and sit down. No one should visit. Like if Mom Donnie can make New York a better place, then I'll clap. I just want New York to be a better place. I have a belief that the things he's going to do will be just absolutely God awful. And I believe that you can just walk people through the cause and effect and it will be very simple. But like I'm perfectly willing if he's winning. Yeah, this is dope. Yay. I have a North Star. I have theories about what will take me there, but I don't know that they're correct. So anyway, again, if I met Mom Donnie, if I interviewed Mom Donnie, I would be courteous, I would be receptive. I would want to understand before I tried to, you know, break the arguments apart. But then I would go after the arguments to the best of my terrible debating abilities. So that's how I see this. So yeah, if people think in my head, I'm thinking, Mom Donnie must be stopped at all costs. I am not at all. So anyway, I don't mean to step.

[B]

On you, Mason, but I see a couple comments popping up that I think we should talk about. So this science spark, said Tom, with respect, it's not really consistent to judge the Dems by their worst case potential and MAGA by their best case intentions. It's a clear double standard.

[A]

It's not. So here's the thing I really want people to understand. So binary thinking is very useful. It will help you make decisions, but it is also very detached from reality. And if you don't take amplitude into account, you are going to be eternally confused by the world. So people should be very concerned about. Quick break, but don't go anywhere. There's more to come after this short break from our sponsors. Hang tight because if you run a business, this could be the most important 60 seconds of your week. Here is the reality. By the time you hear about a supply chain issue, a tariff change or a cash flow crunch, it's already cost you. Revenue's gone, time's wasted, and momentum is shattered. You cannot afford to run your company in the dark. That's why over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle. The AI powered business management suite built to give you real time visibility across everything that matters. Accounting, inventory, HR, financials, all in one platform, one dashboard, one truth. NetSuite does not just help you track problems, it helps you see them coming. With AI driven forecasting, automation and global visibility, you get the power to pivot fast. Right now, get your free business guide demystifying [e-mail] theory the guide is free. Just go to netsuite.com theory again. Netsuite.com theory this episode is brought to.

[B]

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[A]

That's right, it is I, the replacer. Once again, I've been called on so you can play the new Call of Duty Black Ops 7 with three expansive modes, 18 multiplayer maps, and the tastiest zombie gameplay you've ever freaking seen. Call of Duty Black Ops 7 available now.

[B]

Rated M for Mature.

[A]

All right, thanks for sticking with us. Let's jump right back in where we're headed right now, regardless of who's in power. But when the person is in power you want to look at, like how far are they likely to go? You're going to make your best assumption about that, but the amplitude of the thing matters a lot.

[B]

So in your mind, the amplitude of Mamdani is he just young guy, just got mayor of New York. Let's say he tricks a couple people for the next four years, then he becomes governor of New York, then he does the same policies, tricks a couple more people, then he can become president. And that's why it's a slippery slope that that ideology can grow because of the cultural energy has the thing that.

[A]

I am really focused on is how much energy is going into the dsa, is going into socialism, is going into communism, is going against capitalism. Like all the things at work. But this won't be a satisfying answer. So I want to get back to the direct thing that they were saying, so that I'm being unjustly kind and unfairly heavy handed to one side. Okay, so first of all, to acknowledge my biases, I as an individual person believe that humans should be far more afraid of socialism and communism than they should be of state run capitalism. Now I've given all my reasons for that, but I forgive anybody that's like, well, I disagree. I think state run capitalism is far more terrifying. Okay, well, we can debate the merits of that, but that will certainly explain why it seems like I go way harder on one side than on the other. Because I'm more afraid of one side. I believe historically, justly so, but I am far more afraid of that. There is a reason that China's done really fucking well for the last 40 years and it isn't communism because that's not the game they've been playing. They game they've been playing is state sponsored capitalism. State sponsored capitalism is terrifyingly effective in the short run. So it's like I am far less afraid of that though. I am afraid of that. So I think that you have a problem of state run surveillance on the left and the right. And I'm going to hate it from both of them in equal measure. But yeah, so that, that is my. I have my reasons. I'm not blind to it. But if anybody detects that I have a far bigger reaction to one side than the other, that would be why. I think it's completely justified. But that would be why. Um, and then if you take them as individuals, it's interesting. If you take them as individuals, I'm probably far more worried about Trump than I am momdani. I think Mamdani is too young and doesn't have the connections to pull this off, but he sits on top of something that scares me far more. So what scares me right now is the rejection of capitalism, the embrace of socialism. Some of the things like if you guys haven't watched the DSA talk directly, they say things like, we need to abolish the family. That's so foundational and so terrifying. Okay, so flip it. And the right says we need to be, let's be very uncharitable. We need to be Christian nationalists. Okay, that's terrible. But that doesn't scare me like undermining the family. So now, hey, I need someone to balance me out cosmically. And maybe that's Brutus Lugo. And maybe Brutus Lugo is like, I'm way more terrified of Christian nationalism than I am of abolishing the family. Okay, great. And so now the world has different voices that they can listen to, which is exactly what I think should happen. Which is why you don't hear me calling for Mamdani to be censored. You don't hear me calling for Nick Fuentes to be censored. Like, nope. I think all these people should be able to say their ideas. I think they're terrible. But I welcome that I have to fight them in the sphere of public opinion. So, yep, perfectly satisfied with that.

[B]

And to that point, I will concede that in the sense that in 2017. I'm sorry, when Obama won in 2008, there was a conservative party, there was a Republicans, and then there was the crazy Tea Party. And that crazy Tea Party was just this fringe people of racist who were mean and bigoted and all the bad things. And as we played that out, the Tea Party gained more esteem. The classic Republicans, the Grand Old Party, got pushed out. Then it became the conservatives versus the Tea Party versus MAGA. MAGA ate up the Tea Party, then it became conservatives versus MAGA, and now even in the Republican Party, it's 80% MAGA, 20% traditional conservatives. There's no more Mitt Romneys, there's no more John McCain. So I will at least give you that directionally, the DSA is the only thing on the left that has any energy whatsoever.

[A]

And.

[B]

And the classic Democrats, the Chuck Schumers, the Hillary Clintons, they're already getting pushed out by some of the new further left people. So I can at least give you that, that there is this wave of people that can radically shift the sides of the Democrat of the Democratic parties, as in the Republicans and the Democrats, because we have seen it on the right play out over the last 20 years. So I can at least see that valid as like a fear on the left happening.

[A]

Yeah. So going back to Mamdani as an individual versus Trump as an individual, Trump has, A, a lot of money and B, an insane amount of influence. He's so plugged in, and he spent whatever, 50 years building a network. So in terms of, like, who's going to be more effective now talking amplitude, Trump is going to be way more effective than Mandani. So in terms of which of the individuals, I think could end up wreaking more havoc in the next 10 years, clearly Trump. Clearly Trump. But if you want to know the ideology, that scares me a lot more from an amplitude to go very, very wrong perspective, I've made that point over and over. We Got two super chats. So why is it that you think mom Donnie will lead us to Mao and Stalin type socialism and not Nordic country style socialism like he's actually proposing. Hold on. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. The Nordic countries are not socialist. And so anybody who thinks they are, please go research them. They are not socialist. They have huge social programs, but it's all democratically voted in. It's all socialism is. We are going to take over industries, do everything top down. The workers own the means of production. Essentially it's a very different ball game than what they're doing in the Nordic countries, which is all private markets all the time, but just everyone is taxed to death. And the thing that I don't think people realize about the Nordic countries is that the middle class is to axed, low class taxed. Everybody gets taxed. In America the top 50% of earners pay like 90% of the taxes. Maybe more. It might be 97%. I mean it's like really insane. So it's a very different ball game. A very different ball game. But they are not socialist, which is why they don't call themselves socialist. Gotcha. Chad is saying that that's what Mamdani is proposing is democratic. So no, you need. It's. He is a part of the democratic socialists of America. They are. God, they have some other name, social democracy or something like that. It's very different. People need to start watching the DSA talk directly. Watch the DSA talk directly if you're not freaked out. Right. I, I was clutching my pearls like in the extreme. I could. They said the words, we need to abolish the family. What kids? We need to abolish the family. Do people not hear that? That, that is, hey, let's take that pillar that all of society stands on. Let's break that. And you do that because you want total control of the way that people think. That is so insane. So anyway, there are certain things that just are absolutely disqualifying and that would be one of them. And I heard it directly from their own mouths. So they put it on the Internet. They're not like shy about this shit. So you can go watch it. Go watch it.

[B]

The DSA is what? Project 2025 is on the right. Project 25 is this ominous. Like we're going to take everything away and make everybody Christian nationalists. And it's the worst case right leaning manifesto like issue.

[A]

At this point though, I think if you read Project 2025 and you hate it, that's what's happening? Whatever Trump tells you, that's what's happening.

[B]

That's what's happening. So that's the whole DSA argument of he's not really dsa, he just likes when they vote for him.

[A]

No, no, no. Admits he's a part of the dsa. Like there. No one's arguing that. Right.

[B]

I haven't seen that.

[A]

But he calls himself a democratic socialist. He like this. He's not hiding. He says who he is and I just don't think people are believing him, which is crazy. Oh, hold on. Our tuition people have done it before in history. He's saying that abolishing the family is impossible. No, it's not. So.

[B]

And also, if you like, if you really think about it, what's abolishing your family, making marriage not cool, saying it's okay not to have kids. Now you have a whole generation that's not married and don't have kids. What is that not a family?

[A]

Kids are the responsibility of the state. Hey, California, I'm looking at you. If the school, for instance, can work with the kid to do something against the parents wish you are undermining the family. So, yeah, it is excruciatingly dangerous. What's your response to John Doe saying families do need to be abolished, most of them are dysfunctional and the state is probably a more caring parent. It. Oh, my God. So listen, there are certainly individual cases where you would say, okay, this, this is bad. And by the way, I'm. Every theory is autobiographical, so I am sorry if you grew up in a way where you did not get something positive from a family. There's nothing I hate more than how much our childhood matters. And childhood is a roll of the dice, man. So you do not do anything to deserve bad childhood. But it sounds like perhaps you had one. So truly with the most empathy in the world. I am very sad to hear that. But nonetheless, the state, like, look at what happened. I think it was in Romania where during the war they took a bunch of kids from their family and they raised them in these large orphanages, which were supposed to be better for the kids. And it just ended up absolutely decimating an entire generation. Unfortunately, Australia has some blood on their hands. America has some blood on their hands where they took kids away from the natives and try to Australianize them or Americanize them. Like, it's just God awful what ends up happening.

[B]

So, yeah, I got the video of the DSA claiming mom Danny. He has distanced himself, but they're claiming him. This is what I Found Also, didn't.

[A]

Somebody just said that his chief of staff is a DSA member? No, I don't have that verified.

[B]

But, yeah, I don't have that verified.

[A]

Play your clip. See state power that we can be in because we're like this, right?

[B]

DSA has regular meetings with him, let alone his team.

[A]

His policy director is my friend.

[B]

I've been working with his campaign manager for well over a year.

[A]

People come to DSA by way of zoron. That's awesome. But then we can help them become more radical. Zoron is his first step. And then all of a sudden, you're doing all kinds of awesome organizing.

[B]

But to be fair, he has distanced himself during the campaign from the dsa, but they're claiming him. So this is why his. He can't beat those allegations.

[A]

Yeah, this is like Trump saying, oh, Project 2025. What is it again, like?

[B]

And then meanwhile, he just. His checklist is scratching off every. Yeah, all right, we got to talk about this because this hit Twitter like a boulder over the weekend. Trump proposed 50 year mortgages, comparing himself to President Roosevelt, who ushered in a 30 year mortgage.

[A]

Bro. Like, first of all, Roosevelt, I'm reading a book right now called 1929 about the crash. I have a feeling I haven't finished it yet, so I could be totally wrong. But from things that I've heard, things that I've read and then this new book, I have a feeling that Roosevelt is a villain. So, yeah, we'll see. We'll see. I'll reserve my final judgment. So anyway, any president tying themselves to like, more socialized, not socialism, but socialized stuff. Ack ack. Especially right now, like, God damn. But anyway, I get the 50 year mortgage. I understand, like, what he's trying to do because technically it's like you can pay off, you can pay it off early, but by dragging it out to 50 years, you keep the interest rate lower. So for somebody that's like, oh, listen, I could afford a 30 year mortgage, but I'm going to get into this 50, keep my rate low, gives me more flexibility, and then I'll pay it off in an accelerated rate as my lifestyle allows for it, it's not a terrible idea in that way. It is a sign of sickness. That's what makes me sad is like, no, no, no, you. This is like insulin injections. So, okay, if somebody's a type 2 diabetic, I'm glad insulin exists because I don't believe that person deserves to die or just to be left to rot. But at the same time, it is entirely controllable through their diet. Not mostly controllable. It is entirely controllable through their diet. So I would want to see us solve that problem rather than inject people with insulin and just as a speedrun. Make more houses. Make more houses. Put some limits on corporations buying them up. If you even want to block foreign people from coming in and buying up houses, yay, no problem. There was also a very distressing graph that I saw yesterday that was like in the last 10 years or something, the number of immigrants that have been able to secure federal loans. And I don't know if it was undocumented immigrants, I'll reserve and say no, just immigrants. But like the number of loans going to immigrants is like literally skyrocketing. And it went from like 1 1/2% to 6%.

[B]

No way a legal alien can secure a mortgage.

[A]

Well, you've seen those. They can and do.

[B]

But you know, paperwork that is.

[A]

Yeah, I know.

[B]

Grueling was. I had to do background checks. Somebody gave me a graduation gift. I had to write letters. No way. Yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm calling BS on that. Yeah, that's.

[A]

There, there was a video that went around like a month ago that was like this couple, they were undocumented, so they could have been asylum seekers. This is where it gets messy. If you consider an asylum seeker just a normal immigrant, okay, then it's going to look very different on paper. But if somebody who came across the border illegally but then goes, I'm here for asylum, they suddenly magically, they're now in a totally different camp. And given that we changed the definition of asylum to anybody that is fleeing a worse economic condition, it's basically everybody. So it becomes, this is a big part of the government shutdown was like, they're not illegals. And it's like, well, if they came here illegally and then just said, but it's worse off back home, and then you magically made them legal, like, do we really care? Admittedly, I think the right is beating that drum unnecessarily where it's like they're always just saying illegals, illegals, illegals. And I know they don't actually always mean illegals. And so anyway, that one feels sort of as bad faith as everybody pretending. No. What do you mean? Like, there's no problem. These are just foreign born Americans. It's like, all right, easy, chief. We've got to be a little bit more discerning than that. So anyway, a few things you could clear up. Housing prices would start coming down. The problem is, remember, gain and retain. Why are housing prices so high? Because homeowners don't want their home values to go down. And I get it, I get it. But nonetheless, that is the problem. And so they go bang on the door of their congressman. They're like, how dare you don't like let that new house or apartment complex or whatever be built in my neighborhood. Here's what I would say. Build all that shit and then police the living fuck out of it. Now if you do that, you're not going to have to worry about crime and all of that because they are going to get hammered down. And then you can get like all the lovely. It's more people for sure. And I get, not everybody's going to like that. But if it's safe, I'm here for it.

[B]

I went down a rabbit hole and stumbled across Adam Livingston, who had a very spicy take about the 50 year mortgage.

[A]

You like spice nuclear bitcoin warhead while the rest of your neighbors are getting fleeced by 30 year fiat contracts and safe boomer math. That should be a crime. I made two posts on X that went extremely viral. Literally over 2 million views total talking about the new 50 year mortgage. Okay? Now, I don't advocate for societal debt slavery. All I'm saying is that if they ex, you can ride the wave of societal collapse. I'm seeing every single geriatric who loves cnb. Okay? I have an interview coming out with Robert Breedlove in the very near future. I love Robert. Be love. He's a good person. We are friendly. I wouldn't expect him to call me if he was locked in a Thai prison. But we are friendly. I hate the way that he looks at societal collapse. He would not use those words. But I will, where it's like, well, Tom, what's the problem? There's. There's a life raft. I know the water's 12 degrees, but yes, the vast majority of people on the boat are going to drown. They'll freeze to death probably before they drown. But anyway, they're all going to die. But anybody wants in the life raft can jump in. And I'm like, yeah, but there's like this weird combo on the life raft and the vast majority of people just aren't going to be able to do that combo. Not while they're freezing to death anyway. And they're just perfectly fine because they're in the life raft. And I'm just like, I really hate that. So look, maybe I'M just a chump. That really is entirely possible. And I got a weird fucking roll of the dice and I just cannot just ride off into the fuck sunset while the Titanic gets somewhere where no mosquitoes at. I can't do it. My poor wife. So that is both true and grotesque. And so it's like, all right, listen, as a psa, boys and girls, get an investing strategy. No, nobody knows what's going to happen, least of all me. So anybody that gives you an answer, like, just go buy a bunch of Bitcoin, who the fuck knows? But do the research. Figure out cause and effect. Get a thesis that you're willing to bet against. I'll point you. I did this in the episode that just released. Yeah, I think it was the one that came out on Monday. A deep dive where I cover sort of the three all weather strategy people. You can do a Buffett, like, fundamentals approach, you can do a Ray Dalio all weather strategy, or you can do a Lyn Alden sort of modified all weather strategy. Um, I think all three of those are great. Learn about them. Decide for yourself what you want to do. Please do something. But can we all collectively agree that it's gross that we just go, well, as long as I'm safe? I just really don't like that, so. But I don't have. I don't have a great answer. I don't know how to simplify these topics enough to make sure that we save everybody. It's why I bang the drum. You. You. You have to stop the Titanic from sinking, period. That is the thing I come back to every time. There. There are enough life rafts for everybody. And it's sort of a weak analogy, but it's close that, yes, there's enough life rafts for everybody, but there is a weird fucking code. It's like a puzzle in a video game. They can be solved, but, like, sometimes they're just confusing. And you're so busy and you're fucking freezing to death. And so your brain is like, sort of offline. And the freezing to death in this example is you're already having a hard time making ends meet. You're trying to raise kids, you're working a job that you hate, AI's coming for everything that you hold, and you're just, like, panicking. And so. And also, I hate to say it out loud, intellect matters. And so some people just did not get a good roll of the dice there. And so they're on the boat and they can't figure out the fucking puzzle. To get into the life raft. And so if. When I get in the life raft with you and you're sipping cognac and smoking a cigar, you will forgive me if I want to headbutt the bridge of your nose. So it. That's only emotion. It's only emotion. But anyway, we need to open the door and say, hey, motherfucker in the boat, plug the goddamn hole. And the hole is deficit spending. So we're back to why I get angry at the big beautiful bill. I really want to call it the BBC. True. I may have, like, sold myself on it. The big beautiful catastrophe BBC for short. Yeah. So that's horrible. The DSA is horrible. All of them just want to spend money. Modern monetary theory. Can we play my favorite clip? Can we keep that on hand? It's been a while. I've really been sober, and I've not asked this to be played in, like, four months. I need to play it one more time. I want to remind everybody, the clip that we are about to watch is from one of Biden's senior economic advisors explaining modern monetary theory. It. It is. This is gallows humor. I want to be very clear it. There he is. This is one. Okay, hold on. I need. I need to pause. I need it from the very beginning. I need the volume all the way up. This is my indulgent moment. I need to. Oh, I'm going to stare into the abyss for a minute. Okay, here it comes. This is Biden's senior economic advisor explaining modern monetary theory. If you want to understand why you are where you are, this video sums it up. Here we go. The US Government can't go bankrupt because we can print our own money. It obviously begs the question, why exactly.

[B]

Are we borrowing in a currency that we print ourselves?

[A]

I'm waiting for someone to stand up and say, why do we borrow our own currency in the first place? Like you said, they print the dollar. So why does the government even borrow. Well, the. So the. I mean, again, some of this stuff gets. Some of the language that the. Mm. Some of the language and concepts are just confusing. I mean, the government definitely prints money and it definitely lends that money, which is why the government definitely prints money and then it lends that money by selling bonds.

[B]

They.

[A]

They. He doesn't know. They. Yeah, they. No, no, no, stop. They sell bonds. Yeah, they sell bonds. Right. Since they sell bonds and people buy them the money.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

So a lot of times. A lot of times, at least to my year with mmt, the. The language and the concepts can be Kind of unnecessarily confusing, but there is no question that the government prints money and then it uses that money. Is it real to. You're in a simulation. So this is the worst NPC dialogue. And I don't. I don't get it. I don't know what they're talking about. He literally doesn't get it. This is so wild. This video radicalized me when I watched this, I was like, oh, wait, what? This is so wild. This is so wild. But he's a senior economic advisor. What the.

[B]

Somebody said, this is an SNL skit. No, that was real. For a real documentary. That actually.

[A]

I cannot believe. That was like, I started using that in so many of my deep dives. Finally, I was like, I gotta stop using this it. But, oh, my God, I can't believe this is real. I don't know. I'm actually sweating. I am legitimately perspirating right now because that video fills me with laughter, massive amounts of anxiety. I just cannot believe that that's real. I can't believe that's real. But that's real. That is real, dude.

[B]

What? Like, how. How does that happen, though? Because, like, I guess, yes, the economy is very complicated, but, like, shouldn't. Like, shouldn't. Isn't there one adult in the room? Shouldn't somebody be like, hey, guys.

[A]

Okay, okay. People want to know why I voted for Trump. That video and Kamala Harris going, we're going to cap grocery prices. I was like. And do an unrealized gains tax. I was like, nope, I'm out. Like, it. No, you. That is somebody who's like, the Titanic is sinking. I would like to make this hole bigger. And I'm not letting anyone on the life raft. Fuck all of you. And so I was just like, we just can't. No hard pass. So. Man, it is. Dude, listen. Every time I think I understand the economy, I listen to Scott Bessant and realize, oh, shit. Like, as the island of my knowledge grows, so grows the shore of my ignorance. So I realize, ooh, there's more and more things that I don't know. I would not have known how to break the back of the British pound. So. Oh, my God, Scott Adams. I don't know enough about him to know if I should be like, is he evil or is he amazing? I don't know. But admittedly, he comes across my feed from time to time, and yesterday I should have saved it. It's one of those where I'm like, is this going to stick to my ribs? He Said, what do you. Who do you fear more? In fact. Yeah, yeah, go. It's worth reading. It's Scott Adams Thought Experiment. Scroll down. Let's see if we can find it really fast. It's all text. Was that it? No, it's like he lists. Wait, wait, wait. You can't go this fast. It's.

[B]

I got you. I got you.

[A]

Do you know where it is?

[B]

No, I'm just scrolling through. He says, yesterday, So I was going to go through the last day.

[A]

Oh, well, it came across my feed yesterday. It doesn't mean that it was yesterday. Scott Adams Thought Experiment. You may want to add iq. Yeah, add IQ and see if it pops up. Here it is. Okay, let me read this. Scroll. Yep. All right. Scott Adams Thought Experiment. You walk into a room to compete in an IQ test. Which group scares you more? Room one, Victor Davis Hansen. Ben Shapiro. Scott Besson. Jordan Peterson. Thomas Massie. Mike Benz. David Sachs. Elon Musk. Room 2, AOC Jasmine Crockett. Eric Swalwell. Adam Schiff. Jamie Raskin, Chuck Schumer, Bernie Sanders. Mayor Brandon Johnson. Be honest. Which room are you begging to leave? And I will tell you, if we're talking about the economy, any room that Scott Besson is in, I am begging to leave. Like, this guy is. He's like, s tier economically. Doesn't mean he's moral. I don't know. I'm not saying he's not. I'm just saying I'm not saying he's a good person. I've not looked closely enough. I am saying this motherfucker understands the economy. And so going from Biden, who had. Who already was Weekend at Bernie's, and then his senior economic advisor literally did not understand the economy. And remember, I think economy is like, problem number one, and then now we get Besant. You're in a much better position. So there are people that understand the economy. They just weren't running the government for the last four years. So it is now, how do you get the average voter to understand the economy? That's the part that I'm like, every time now, remember, I know that, like, compared to Scott Besson, I don't even understand what the fuck is going on. But the amount that I do understand is robust, and it is getting more robust by the day. And every time I go to explain the economy, like, as simply as I can, you trip over these moments where you're like, okay, I either oversimplify to the point of lying or I lose this person. It's just. It's all so Interconnected, that it is really tough. It's really tough. But modern monetary theory is, I won't say easy to understand, but it's easy enough to understand that that guy should absolutely retire immediately in shame. Because if you've ever accepted a dollar to talk to anybody about the economy and that's your explanation of modern monetary theory, you can't, you can't do it, man.

[B]

All right.

[A]

It's been interesting to hear Bessant clap.

[B]

Back on people, people coming at him and then keeping on Scott Bessant after Trump announced it over the weekend as well about a possible tariff dividend. Scott Bessant confirmed that or announced that the 2000 tariff stimulus checks will most likely be going out to all Americans who make less than 100k a year, similar to what they did over Covid. I think 80k was like the threshold there or something like that. So it's one of those things where it sounds good, but to my inflation expert next to me, it seems like all free money ain't good money Is this. If they do one for one with the tariff revenue that they do, some estimates have it around, they'll need 3 to 600 billion in order to make these payments work, depending on where they cut the income lines and kids and things like that. Is that something that then goes, okay, if they just do the tariff revenue one for one, it's balanced, you're cool with it, or is it still. This is money being injected into the system and that can have some second order consequences we're not thinking about.

[A]

It will definitely have second and third order consequences. Not that we're not thinking about. I mean, I can tell you exactly what's going to happen. Stock market's going to pump because what happens is people get the money. Some people just spend it. If you spend it, whatever you're spending it on, people watch that and go, ooh, that's hot. So they go buy the stock. Some people look at it and go, I just got extra money and I know that I have to hide from the inflation that that's going to cause. So they're going to go into assets. So the stock market will pump. You'll get a rally in Pokemon cards. You'll also get a rally in one piece cards. Shout out to one piece. Hopefully Gundam as well, because those are the two I collect. And I literally couldn't care less about the amount of money. But anyway, that's exactly what's going to happen. Assets are going to pump everywhere. It won't be real wealth because we will we're still just gaining so much debt. But I heard today that the Trump administration actually has slowed our debt to GDP growth. They claim it actually came down so. But by like a tenth of a point or something. But still, hey, that's, we're certainly moving in the right direction. So if these guys were really making big wins with the debt to GDP ratio and that 122 was suddenly 121 was suddenly 1, uh, then I'd be like, okay, well if you guys need to put a little bit in the pocket of people so that you don't have a political vulnerability. Because let's all be clear, for all of my beefs right now, if you said I've got a left leaning candidate that can win with the aoc, Mamdani, Bernie, wing of the party and somebody on the right, I'm going to go with the person on the right almost certainly. I mean I need to look at their policies and all that. It's possible that they put a lunatic up, but I'm going to guess they're going to be pushing forward more things like what they're doing. So if they're getting debt to GDP going down, I'm, I'm not a one issue voter but I'm very close. And so if they've got that number going down and they say, listen, the number's going down, it's going to keep going down and we're going to do a bad thing and we're going to send out some stimmy checks just so that we bribe the American people to keep doing the right thing. I'd be like, okay, I get it. But yes, like that's just, it's, it's going to create more bubbles. So I mean here's part of the problem is you'll prolong the bubble and that there is some good to that, but. Oh God. So here's what you're doing. You're doing a couple stools, a couple legs of the beautiful deleveraging stool. So you have to be careful because if you don't do them all well, then you just get yourself back in trouble. But anyway, if I saw debt to GDP going down, which is your big indicator and they were putting the money directly in the hands of the people, then it's like, okay, like that buys you a little bit something. But it is that sort of beautiful deleveraging where you're doing a bad thing. But like you're, you're doing the politically expedient thing. Most healthy habits are hard. Meal prep takes hours gym routines get derailed all the time. Complicated supplement regimens fall apart, often within weeks. But AG1 Next Gen is different. AG1 Next Gen delivers what your body actually needs, 75 plus vitamins and minerals, 5 clinically studied probiotic strains plus prebiotics and superfoods. It replaces your multivitamin probiotics and more in one Simple Daily Drink. AG1 Next Gen comes in three new flavors, Tropical citrus and berry. All plant based flavoring with 0 added sugar, 0 artificial sweeteners, 0 erythritol. Every flavor maintains NSF certification for sport, so you know you're getting the strictest quality standards. Subscribe today to try the next gen of AG1 and if you use my link, you'll also get a free bottle of AG D3K2, an AG1 Welcome Kit and F5 of the upgraded travel packs. With your first order, click the link in the show notes or just head to drinkag1.comimpact to get started again. That's drinkag1.com impact.