Why the American Dream of Homeownership Is Dying and What You Can Do About It

Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu
December 8, 2025 | “Tom’s Deepdive” Episode
Host: Tom Bilyeu

Episode Overview

In this Tom’s Deepdive episode, Tom Bilyeu dissects the roots of America’s collapsing housing affordability, why the “American Dream” of homeownership is fading for younger generations, and what individuals can do to navigate—and even thrive—in this uncertain landscape. Tom delivers a data-driven, no-nonsense exploration of how decades-long policy failures, generational wealth incentives, and corporate consolidation have pushed homeownership out of reach for most Americans under 40. He then outlines tactics for listeners to take agency and adapt, rather than be left behind.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Unprecedented Housing Crisis (00:31–13:42)

• Home Prices Have Soared, Wages Have Not
  • The median US home price hit $420,000 in 2024, doubling since 2009, while real wages have been stagnant.
  • “We now have the lowest home affordability since 1984, even worse than at the peak of the 2006 housing bubble.” (00:36)
  • It now takes 13.5 years for a first-time buyer to save a 20% down payment—nearly triple from the 1980s.
• Wealth Is Locked Up and Home Supply Is Scarce
  • Boomers hold $12 trillion in home equity, much trapped behind ultra-low mortgages (sub-3%).
  • Institutional investors have bought over $60 billion in homes, often blocking families from even seeing them listed.
  • New construction can’t fill the gap—single-family building is down 39% compared to the 1970s, despite a much larger population.
• It’s “A Collapse of Opportunity”
  • “This isn’t a collapse of prices, it’s a collapse of opportunity. A society where 70% of future adults will never own property is not a stable society.” (01:06)

2. How We Got Here: Structural Forces and Bad Incentives (04:41–13:42)

• Cheap Money, Broken Policies, Corporate Consolidation
  • Policy failures—money printing, low interest rates, restrictive zoning, and global wage stagnation—built this crisis.
  • Owning a home, once a bonus, became compulsory as homes became a hedge against inflation.
  • “Printing money causes inflation. Inflation causes prices to rise. And to keep up, you either need to get a raise every year that's at least as big as inflation, or you need to own assets…” (10:38)
• Asset Ownership Now Determines Your Future
  • 93% of assets are held by the top 10% of Americans.
  • “If you want to know who to blame, I’ve got you covered in part two. … But if you don’t understand part one, you’re not going to do what’s necessary.” (02:13)

3. Who’s to Blame? (Part 2) (17:20–34:08)

Tom identifies three main groups whose incentives created the crisis:

a. Politicians

• Voted for Scarcity
  • “They will do and say whatever is necessary to gain and retain power.” (18:02)
  • Local zoning boards made it almost impossible to build multi-family or even new single-family homes.
  • Politicians prioritized protecting property values (for votes), not affordability.
  • Quote: “Politicians may not have set out to intentionally break the housing market, but that was the end result nonetheless.” (22:04)
  • Houston as a Positive Example: Allowed building, kept home prices stable.

b. Baby Boomers

• Benefited Most, Voted for Self-Interest
  • Boomers bought homes when prices were low and wages rose, then voted for policies keeping values rising and supply restricted.
  • Much equity will pass to their (already wealthy) kids—worsening inequality.
  • “They have unintentionally helped to lock younger generations out of the very mechanism that created their own wealth.” (27:51)

c. Institutional Investors (Wall Street & Corporations)

• Corporate Landlords Reshape Neighborhoods
  • Bought up entire neighborhoods, outbidding families with cash, fueled by cheap leverage and guaranteed appreciation.
  • “Neighborhoods stopped being communities and became rental portfolios.” (30:38)
  • Institutional buying worsened scarcity and made it nearly impossible for young families to compete.

Conclusion: Not a Conspiracy, but Incentives Working Together

• “What we’re seeing is … a system malfunctioning exactly as it’s designed to.” (12:19)
• System now rewards those who already own assets and punishes everyone else.

4. How to Win Anyway: Playing the “Rigged” Game (Part 3) (34:09–end)

Tom’s four-step strategy for individuals:

1. Think Like a Capital Allocator

• Focus less on if you can afford the monthly payment; instead, ask if your money is beating inflation.
• “Cash sitting in a savings account is not safe. That is the melting ice cube.” (36:00)
• You don’t HAVE to buy a house, but you MUST own assets (stocks, real estate, gold, Bitcoin, etc.).

2. Get into Entry-Level Assets

• Don’t wait for the perfect house—get ANY reasonable asset to start.
• House hacking: Buy a duplex/triplex, live in one unit, rent the others.
• Co-own with friends/family, or start with fractional ownership (like REITs).
• “Waiting until you can afford the perfect place is exactly how you wake up 45 years old having watched the entire run up from the sidelines.” (38:50)

3. Be Ready for Distressed Opportunities

• Every market cycle has panic moments and corrections; be prepared.
• Know your target markets and what “a real deal” looks like in advance.

4. Lobby to End NIMBYism

• Push local politicians for pro-building, pro-supply policies.
• “Inflation should be zero. … People should just be able to save their money. … I cannot believe that that’s controversial.” (41:40)
• But policy change is slow and unlikely before more pain—focus on personal strategy.

Empowerment Over Victimhood

• “You don’t control Washington, … Wall Street or zoning boards, but you control you. … You just need to know your options and get creative.” (43:40)
• Understanding the system and moving early—even in a “rigged” game—can still create upward mobility.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "This isn't a housing bubble that's going to pop … It's a financial chokehold created by money printing, policy failure, boomer era incentives, and corporate consolidation." (02:00)
• "A society where 70% of future adults will never own property is not a stable society." (01:10)
• "High prices are not always a signal of market strength. They can also be a signal of a system malfunctioning exactly as it's designed to." (12:19)
• "The unavoidable truth is if you own assets, you're loving life right now. 2025 was awesome, but if you don't, it is a bloodbath." (33:50)
• "Cash sitting in a savings account is not safe. That is the melting ice cube." (36:00)
• "Waiting until you can afford the perfect place … is exactly how you wake up 45 years old having watched the entire run up from the sidelines." (38:50)
• "The more you understand about it, all, the more likely you are to be able to capitalize on opportunities and avoid being slaughtered by bad government policy." (44:11)
• "You’re not going to end up financially well off by accident … but you absolutely can get there by understanding how the game is rigged … and how you can still play it well despite the fact that it's rigged." (45:00)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:31–04:40 – The depth of the current crisis: affordability & statistics
• 04:41–13:42 – The collapse of opportunity and how policy, money printing, and corporate greed intersected
• 17:20–34:08 – Assigning blame: politicians, boomers, institutions; how their incentives align
• 34:09–44:50 – Tom’s step-by-step action plan for listeners to escape the squeeze
• 44:51–End – Final empowerment message and call to action

Recap and Takeaway

Tom Bilyeu’s deep dive strips away sensational headlines and walks listeners through the intertwined causes of America’s housing malaise. He makes clear: no one group purposely engineered this crisis, but entrenched incentives produced a system where ownership begets more ownership, and everyone else falls behind. Although policy reform is needed, Tom urges listeners not to wait for rescue. By understanding the rules of the (rigged) game and taking creative, pragmatic action, individuals can still secure a path to financial security, asset growth, and ultimately, freedom—even in the face of daunting odds.

For those feeling stuck, Tom’s advice is clear: Own something—anything—and learn to think like an investor, not a renter. The game may be rigged, but you can still win.