Why the U.S. Can’t Repay Its Debt, What Comes Next, and How to Prepare | Ray Dalio - PT 2 (Fan Fave)

Summary

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Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu

Why the U.S. Can’t Repay Its Debt, What Comes Next, and How to Prepare — Ray Dalio (Part 2): Detailed Summary

Podcast: Impact Theory
Host: Tom Bilyeu
Guest: Ray Dalio (Renowned investor, founder of Bridgewater Associates, author of "Principles")
Date: April 4, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode is the second half of Tom Bilyeu's in-depth conversation with Ray Dalio, diving into the realities behind America’s debt crisis, cycles of democracy, the role of worry and thoughtful disagreement, and the importance of principled thinking—both in national politics and personal life. Dalio unpacks how systemic dysfunction, historical cycles, and human psychology shape our economy, culture, and relationships, and offers strategies to navigate turbulent times with clarity, realism, and effectiveness.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Necessity of Productive Disagreement (Starts ~01:16)

• Tom Bilyeu and Ray Dalio discuss the importance of fostering a culture where disagreement is encouraged and channeled thoughtfully.
  • Dalio stresses the need to change attitudes:

    "You have to change the attitude about disagreement so that you know, if you're in disagreement, then one of you is probably wrong. How do you know the wrong person isn't you?" (05:15)

  • Dalio outlines methods such as mutually agreed mediators, repetition of others’ viewpoints, and the “two-minute rule,” ensuring every voice is truly heard (05:15–08:45).
  • Tom notes:

    "We found really effective here is rules of engagement... getting people to understand." (08:49)

2. Mindset First, Structure Second (08:49–12:02)

• Dalio emphasizes that no structure or system can work unless people genuinely want to collaborate.

  • “You first have to change the mindset of going from a 'I want to win at all cost' to wanting that. So all I'm saying is ... that we will work together to overcome our differences, that we will be good with each other.” (10:18)

  • Structural reforms like a bipartisan cabinet only succeed if there's a genuine desire for cooperation.

3. The Flaw in “Strong Leader” Solutions (12:02–16:22)

• Tom floats the idea of a unifying leader—Dalio pushes back, referencing historical cycles.
  • Dalio’s reaction:

    “It's like wishing for the tooth fairy... You're not dealing with the mechanistic determinants to say, how do you get a society that is splitting apart... to have a leader that leads and people follow properly.” (12:53, 15:57)

  • He cites that in highly divided democracies, strong leaders are often impossible, and if someone does unite people, it’s usually short-lived and sometimes tips toward autocracy.

4. The Italian Example & Plato’s Cycle (20:47–25:38)

• Dalio shares Mario Draghi’s brief unification of Italy and Plato’s warning about democracy.

  • “He said, I can't govern under that kind of a fragmented environment... So if you look at the history of democracies... what happens is the greatest risk of democracy is anarchy... then you get the dictator.” (20:47)

  • The cycle: Anarchy ⇒ Dictator ("benevolent" if lucky, "incompetent/selfish" if not) ⇒ Revolution ⇒ Democracy ⇒ repeat.

5. Facing Harsh Realities & Managing Emotion (26:11–29:22)

• Major events are the outputs of long, historical cause-effect chains.
  • Tom emphasizes the need to see things as they are, strip out emotion, and plan accordingly.
  • Dalio:

    “Meditation is a huge benefit for that. So it gives one both a calmness and a clarity ... the serenity to accept that which I can’t control … and the wisdom to tell the difference.” (27:10)

6. Understanding the U.S.-China-Taiwan Standoff (30:12–38:46)

• Dalio provides nuanced historical context for the Taiwan crisis and its contemporary stakes.
  • “If the United States or Taiwan says Taiwan should be an independent country, that would produce a war... So what will come? I don’t believe China is going to initiate a move... unless the United States crosses that line, pushes that line now.” (30:53)
  • Dalio repeatedly urges listeners to view international relations through the eyes of each side’s narrative and history (30:53–40:03).

7. The Two Selves — Logic vs Emotion in Decision-Making (40:40–44:09)

• Dalio (and the neuroscience co-host) discuss how the logical and emotional parts of the brain often conflict—aligning them is critical.
  • “There were two main things. You got an ego barrier and a blind spot barrier. If you can get past your ego barrier and you get past your blind spot barrier, you can accomplish anything.” (40:40)
  • Meditation, self-reflection, and seeking others’ perspectives help bridge the gap.

8. Radical Truthfulness and Radical Transparency (44:09–62:31)

• The concept of facing reality—internally and collectively—with brutal honesty.
  • Dalio:

    “That’s why I have the radical truthfulness and the radical transparency ... if you’re forming your company ... let’s all go above ourselves. What are your strengths and weaknesses? How do we get at what’s true and how do we do that with transparency?” (44:09)

  • “About 30% of the people cannot do radical transparency.” (58:32)
  • The necessity of agreed-upon processes for resolving disagreement in any relationship—personal or professional.

9. "It’s Just Another One of Those" — Patterns & Principles (48:50–57:58)

• Dalio’s core investment and life philosophy: everything is cyclical—success comes from recognizing repeating patterns and applying sound principles.
  • “There's practically nothing that hasn't happened before... So when you realize everything happens over and over again pretty much for the same kind of reasons... and you can almost look at who's been through it before, who knows how it works how do I best navigate that thing? What are my principles for that?” (48:59, 53:33)
  • Keep a written log of decisions and your reasoning—this becomes your personal “principles” and a roadmap for future challenges.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Ray Dalio on productive worry:

  “If you worry, you don’t have to worry. And if you don’t worry, you need to worry.” (02:13)

• On seeking the right framework:

  “Everything begins with the goal. So what’s your goal? And even just getting any group to agree on what the goal is…” — Tom Bilyeu (09:26)

• On the risk of seeking strong leadership:

  “It’s like wishing for the tooth fairy… And that’s how dictators come to power.” — Ray Dalio (12:53, 15:02)

• Historical patterns, the fate of democracies:

  “The greatest risk of democracy is anarchy … then you get the dictator—and, ideally, the benevolent dictator ... inevitably, you get the incompetent or selfish dictator. Then you have a revolution, then you go to a democracy... and these things go in cycles.” (22:33)

• On the Taiwan situation:

  “A red line for China is if the United States or Taiwan says Taiwan should be an independent country, that would produce a war. And everybody knows that.” (35:39)

• On alignment of logic and emotion:

  “You got an ego barrier and a blind spot barrier. If you can get past your ego barrier and you get past your blind spot barrier, you can accomplish anything.” (40:40)

• On radical transparency:

  “The best way to do it is you do it in an agreed-upon way... if we were to have a relationship is. And by the way, it’s non-hierarchical, you could say, ‘Hey Ray, I don’t think you’re very good at that,’ and I’m going to be the same way.” (59:34)

• On life’s repeating “species” and principles:

  “Everything is another one of those ... think of each thing as being like a type of species ... what one of those is it? And how do I deal with those? And you have your principle for dealing with those.” (53:33)

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Key Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment Description | |-------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:16 | Start of main content; Tom recaps Ray’s principles and opens with disagreement in teams | | 02:13 | Dalio’s “productive worry” concept | | 05:15 | Dalio’s techniques for structured disagreement | | 10:18 | Mindset vs. structure in cooperation | | 12:02 | Tom’s “unifying leader” hypothesis and Dalio’s rebuttal | | 20:47 | Mario Draghi, Italy’s unity collapse, Plato’s democracy cycle | | 26:11 | Facing reality, emotional management, meditation | | 30:53 | Historical and strategic deep-dive: China, Taiwan, U.S. | | 40:40 | The two parts of mind: ego/barriers to alignment | | 44:09 | Benefits of meditation, radical truthfulness, working above the self | | 48:50 | Patterns, “it’s another one of those,” Rick’s foundational principle | | 58:32 | Radical transparency, agreed-upon process for feedback | | 62:31 | Application of principles in deep disagreement (e.g., marriage, business) |

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Takeaways and Practical Applications

• Worry productively about systemic risks — then take action based on that concern.
• Facilitate thoughtful disagreement through rules, mediation, and clear protocols.
• No structure, even constitutional, will work if the will to cooperate isn’t present.
• Beware of nostalgia for “strong” leadership as a fix in fractured democracies; history shows this is a dangerous (if natural) yearning.
• Strive for hyperrealism: see things as they are, not as you wish they were. Use meditation or similar techniques to clarify thought.
• The problems and cycles we face are not new—study the past, recognize recurring patterns, and develop your “principles” for action.
• Embrace radical transparency and truthfulness, even when it’s difficult—especially in teams and relationships.
• Keep an evolving log of decisions and underlying criteria: over time, this becomes a playbook for your unique challenges.

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This episode is rich with wisdom bridging world events and personal mastery. Dalio’s core: We can’t escape the cycles of history, but we can learn to navigate them—together, and with eyes open.

Transcript

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[Podcast Host (Tom Bilyeu)]

I'm Tom Bilyeu and this is Impact Theory. We're diving right back in to part

[Interviewer (Tom Bilyeu)]

two with the legendary investor Ray Dalio. When I read Principles, it was really life changing for me. It was before you and I had ever done an interview.

[Guest Interviewer/Co-host]

Because what I liked about the book

[Interviewer (Tom Bilyeu)]

is exactly what you're talking about right now. This idea of a bipartisan cabinet. So in my own company, I'm not looking for people to agree with me. I'm looking for people that will challenge my ideas. I'm looking for disconfirming evidence. I want to get the smartest people that I can possibly attract at what we're doing and saying, okay, we need to disagree with each other well, so that we can identify the right answer to your earlier point. You're going to be wrong so often that if you go into something thinking I'm infallible, I'm going to have all the right answers. You're just headed towards disaster. So my question is, how do we set up a situation where people can disagree? Well, what is that structure?

[Ray Dalio]

I think it starts with worry. I, I have a principle. If you, if you Worry, you don't have to worry. And if you don't worry, you need to worry. Because if you worry, you'll take care of the things that you're worrying about to the best possible way. If you don't worry and you just go headlong into these things, you're going to have a real problem. So I think that you have to have people first realize, what does that picture look like if we don't do these things, if we don't. If we don't have bipartisan, if we don't solve these problems together, if we fight, you know, you have to see the clarity of those two paths and have people choose the good path. You know, okay, we will figure this out intelligently to make the best possible thing to. And challenging and together. Okay. It starts there. It's not a structure. Where does the structure come from? It comes from people. Okay. And it comes from people having a need to create a structure and a way of being.

[Guest Interviewer/Co-host]

So how do we get people to worry?

[Ray Dalio]

Well, maybe what we're doing, I mean, I think they have to worry at two levels. First, enough of us worry that we vote for it, or, you know, we use our voting and our others to say, let's vote on together and compromise and smart people doing these kinds of things.

[Guest Expert (Neuroscience/Psychology Expert)]

Or.

[Ray Dalio]

And that that's worrying about the society as a whole. And then there's worrying of, as an individual, if they don't do those things, how do I take care of myself? Those are the two types of worries or two types of impacts you can have. Right. So I think they need to think of both of those.

[Interviewer (Tom Bilyeu)]

For people that aren't familiar with Lincoln, how much have you looked into him? His idea of a team of rivals sounds like very similar to what you're saying about having a bipartisan cabinet. Is he somebody that you've looked at or.

[Ray Dalio]

I know that I know a bit about Lincoln. I wouldn't call myself an expert, and I know that about him.

[Interviewer (Tom Bilyeu)]

And.

[Ray Dalio]

Yeah. And I think that's really, really great. Yeah.

[Interviewer (Tom Bilyeu)]

So when, whether it's at Bridgewater or elsewhere, how do you facilitate people disagreeing? Well, because let's say that you have an intern going against your chief investment officer. Like, how would you. Do you take that person seriously? They have little to no experience. How do you set that up so that you don't waste time, but at the same time, you get the best ideas.

[Ray Dalio]

First of all, you explain to people and you understand yourself how important thoughtful disagreement is. So you remove it, you minimize it from being something that people view as a fight and get upset about. You have to change the attitude about disagreement so that you know, if you're in disagreement, then one of you is probably wrong. How do you know the wrong person isn't you? And then also you still have to resolve the disagreement in some way. And so you have to have in place, first of all an understanding and an intellectualization of that so you don't get emotionally carried away and thinking. Because I disagree, that's equivalent to a fight. Okay. So you have to change that psychology. And then once you do that, then you have to have protocols in place for doing that. Now, you know, in, in my book, you know, Principles, Life at Work in the work part of Principles, I've outlined those things, those techniques that can be done repeatedly. So you have to have a system for that. And you know, and so let, let me make it very simple examples of that. If you and I are disagreeing and we sort of want to try to get at the truth, things that you can do is to mutually agree on a mediator. So, okay, you, you could step out of your argument and say, okay, this isn't working. How should we do this disagreement? And maybe like, let's mutually agree on a mediator. Like, we both agree that that person, you know, something, somebody we can trust into through. Okay, that's a good step. Then as you're doing that, carrying that through, you can also say, are you taking in the other person's thinking and replying to that or are you just blocking? And there are techniques that you can do to do to demonstrate you've taken it in, okay, like repeat the other's point and so on, and then reply to the other's point and then do certain things like not interrupt or. In other words, I have a rule, I call it the two minute rule. Somebody says, okay, can you give me the two minute rule? That means for the next two minutes I can speak uninterruptedly. So there are techniques that you can use to first understand that it's not a big fight, that there's protocols. Okay, then how do you do that in a hierarchy? Okay, there are different ways you can do that in a hierarchy. But anyway, there are many of them and you know, we're not going to have the time to go through them. But they're outlined in, you know, my book Principles, Life and Work in the work Principles.

[Interviewer (Tom Bilyeu)]

Part of it, yeah, that's something that we found really effective here is rules of engagement is how we refer to it. So whether it's the two minute rule or something else, but ultimately getting people to understand. I'm saying this in the context of somebody who's trying to figure out how we get. We know that the big cycle has a high degree of predictability. And I'm willing to accept that maybe the US can't remain the, the reserve currency forever. Maybe we're not going to be the dominant world superpower forever, but that I want to handle that transition out as well as possible. And usually phase five to six ends with literal bloodshed. And things have to get so painful before people can correct course. And so trying to give people a framework. I know you're saying that maybe I'm looking at the structure too much, but I think in frameworks. So what's that rubric by which people can go into whether it's the 2024 election, whether, I think now we're still in gridlock with the budget or the debt ceiling or whatever it is giving people ways to navigate through this? Well, and so my thing is everything begins with the goal. So what's your goal? And even just getting any group to agree on what the goal is. Now once we know what the goal is, then we can start saying, okay, what people or ideas are most likely to get us there. How do you stress test an idea? How do you know?

[Ray Dalio]

I just want to emphasize though, as you're doing that the people have got to agree how they want to be with each other first before there's a structure. I mean, I can, we can have structure. I can create ST structure and we could do all sorts of things. We can have a bipartisan cabinet. We can have the, the going off for six months and doing the project, and we can do all. There's lots of things we can do. But you first have to change the mindset of going from a I want to win at all cost to wanting that. So all I'm saying is when you say I want the structure and I'm a structured guy, I'm. I want the structure and I'm a structure guy too, but it takes people wanting something. And so what is the goal? Like you say the goal, you start with the goal, okay, that we are not going to fight with each other in a dysfunctional way, okay? That we will work together to overcome our differences, that we will be good with each other, okay? If you put those things there and then judge those things and you sort of then say, how are we going to do that? Okay, than you do to biforc and structure or whatever, you know, bipartisan cabinet, blah, blah, blah, Blah. All that other stuff, then you can come around to it. But you have to. If you're in a I will fight at all cost mode. Nothing. The structure of the Constitution is not going to work.

[Interviewer (Tom Bilyeu)]

I'll give you my hypothesis on the only way to pull that off. And let me know if you see another option. Lord knows, I hope there is one. I've thought a lot about how you sway people into doing something that is more advantageous. I'm usually thinking about it for them, so just what's more advantageous for them? And it all ultimately comes down to you have a leader or a group of people for whom you're trying to earn the respect of. And by earning their respect, you do the right things. So I'll sum it up at. At the national level, we would need a leader that can actually bring the two sides together. Somebody who has a very clear vision. You've grimaced for anybody that's just listening to this, Ray. Dalia just grimaced hard. All right, so explain the grimace, Ray.

[Ray Dalio]

It's like wishing for the tooth fairy or something. I mean, it's like not going to the root cause of why you don't have that leader. Okay. If you look at history, this is one of the great challenges of a democracy. And when it gets into everybody fighting for their own cause with populism, they, you know, and so, you know, Mussolini comes empowered to make the trains run on time because it's badly managed and so on. So somebody says, give me the dictator, give me the dictator, and then I will. And I want that dictator. So that's what we're. Okay, so how do you get that leader? Okay, it increasingly. I'm just dealing with the mechanics. So how do you get the leader, and what do you do with the opposition? Okay, it's almost like, well, you. You have this fighting of the various types, and do you accept losing, and then does the opposition remain and undermine everything you're trying to. So it's almost like it gets to mob rule. That's why the dictators come to power. Okay, so that's just history. And that's all understandable. If not desirable. It's still understandable that that's the mechanics. So to wish and say, okay, we need a strong leader who will get control and make everything go all right, sounds a little bit like wishing for the tooth fairy.

[Interviewer (Tom Bilyeu)]

That is how dictators come to power. That is very much the scenario I would want to categorically avoid. So do you see that? Just as that is an inevitability, because right now Ray, to your own point, we are not being good with each other. From what I can see, there is certainly a broadcast signal and maybe this is a distortion of social media, but I don't think so. Certainly not given the elections of recent. There is a broadcast of a signal of massive division. In a moment of massive division, you get people fighting. In a moment where people fighting, there is a winner take all scenario. That's the path to dictatorship. So while my path may be wishing for the tooth fairy to want somebody who's inspiring, that can unite people,

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[Interviewer (Tom Bilyeu)]

ask it pointedly, do you just see it as an inevitability that we head towards dictatorship?

[Ray Dalio]

When you say have a leader, that way you're not dealing with the mechanistic determinants to say, how do you get a society that is splitting apart and operating in the way that I describe, to have a leader that leads and people follow properly. Okay, you're skipping over that. You can't skip over that.

[Interviewer (Tom Bilyeu)]

Do you see a path though, other than. Because the natural way that this plays

[Ray Dalio]

out, the only path I can see is the one that I'm referring to. If you worry about the alternative. Okay, okay, if you worry, look at that. What is it? You must not have it. If the more people worry about that, then the more likelihood you won't have that. In other words, if you want to tilt the odds in all the different ways, I don't know, take out the ads, have conversations like this, do whatever it is and say, I worry of what's going to happen. So we must not have that. And we really must have this other alternative. I really want to buy into that other alternative. And you have somebody arguing for that other alternative, like, will you follow?

[Podcast Host (Tom Bilyeu)]

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[Ray Dalio]

Let me just tell you the story very quickly of Mario Draghi in Italy. Mario Draghi used to be the head of the European Central bank, which was like being head of the Federal Reserve for a number of years. And he and I got to know each other in that he completed that. And he's highly, highly respected. He's Italian, and Italian has. Italy has crazy anarchy. Like, they've had an average of one prime minister a year. And so chaotic and so bad that all the political parties got together and said, we will be united under Mario Draghi. We will let him lead. We will turn and over to him. And he said, I will do that only as long as all the political parties remain united, because if they don't remain united, we're going to get into this dysfunctional fighting. And I know it's not going to work. So for a period of 18 months, he was prime minister of Italy and very loved. People loved him. And then one of the political parties dropped out because they disagreed on his approach for, I think it was handling Ukraine. And he said, okay, now I'm resigning, even though everybody wanted him to stay overwhelmingly. But he said, I can't govern under that kind of a fragmented environment. In other words, he knew where it was going to go. So he resigned. And in the period between him resigning and actually turning it over to the new prime minister, we had lunch and we were talking about these things and what he was describing and what exists is the issue that we're talking about, the inability of a leader to be able to lead when there's so much fragmentation. And if you look at the history of democracies and you go back to Plato, back Plato's Republic, he wrote the Plato. You know, a lot of people think Americans invented democracy. It existed way back, you know, in the Roman and Greek times and all that. And so he looked at the cycles, and what he said was there's this cycle of these different systems. One leads to another in this way where what happens is the greatest risk of democracy is an anarchy, because the fragments, it becomes uncontrolled. They all have their interests, they fight and they tear the thing apart. And then. So what happens after that is then you get the dictator and you get, ideally, the benevolent dictator, in other words, the one who really knows how to make good things happen. And he cares about the country, he doesn't care about his personal wealth and those kinds of things. And. And they create that. And okay, to create order. That comes about that. And then in that cycle, after a period of time, you inevitably get the incompetent or selfish dictator. And then you have a revolution, and then you go to a democracy and so on. And these things go in cycles. And so when you're asking the question, you know, of the leader, you know, you're saying, okay, let's create a leader and, and, and have them go lead. You can't ignore the fragmentation and the inability to, to lead in that set of circumstances.

[Interviewer (Tom Bilyeu)]

I agree with that. But if you, even in your own example, what you had in Mario is somebody that is able to garner the respect of all the different factions. Now I understand that it ultimately broke apart, but he is the tooth fairy that I'm talking about. You need somebody that people can unite under.

[Ray Dalio]

But it didn't work because of the power. People behaved with each other and it won't work. Okay.

[Interviewer (Tom Bilyeu)]

Yeah. Okay, so if, if we know that people aren't going to stay united for long, what you're saying is the duration that people can stay united is the duration that you can have that sort of peace, prosperity. And the second that you, how long

[Ray Dalio]

is that duration here? I mean, let's, let's look at the situation. I mean it doesn't exist, let alone have a duration to it.

[Interviewer (Tom Bilyeu)]

Yeah. Ray, you say very troubling things in a very calm manner, which I think is probably the only way to say them. All right? So as I then step back and I say, okay, the cycles are what the cycles are, you said something earlier which I think is really important that I want to re. Emphasize. What's happening now is a determination from something that happened earlier. And so to some extent you, you're in a better position to deal well with the way things are. The reality, I've heard you talk a lot about that. The reality is what? The reality is you need to be awake, you need to be paying attention to that reality. And then you need to base your plan of action based on the truth of that circumstance. To do that, though, one thing I think is incredibly important is people have to be able to strip their emotions out of this. I know you're a huge proponent of meditation. How do people get good at removing emotion from the equation so that they can see reality accurately?

[Ray Dalio]

Well, meditation is a huge benefit for that. So it gives one both a calmness and a clarity. It gives one an ability almost to go above everything and look down on it and say, okay, here's how things work. And, and, and an acceptance of reality. It's like this serenity prayer. God, give me the serenity to accept that which I can't control. Give me the power to control that which I can and give me the wisdom to tell the difference and you know, just to be able to approach things and open minded way like we talk about. You asked the question about disagreement. How can I approach disagreement? Do I emotionally get into a fight about it or do I handle it? Well, meditation and those types of things, calming yourself down, viewing everything more like it's, you know, it's. Think of a reality as being like a game, like a chess game. Okay, Calmly, okay, this thing happens, and what's your next move and how does it work?

[Interviewer (Tom Bilyeu)]

Okay, very fascinating. So if you take a chess grandmaster or anybody that's really proficient at chess, and you put a chess board in front of them, they look at the board and they don't have to analyze each individual piece. They know that pattern on the board very well. They know where you are in the game. And so that's a chunk of information. It feels like a very similar approach to the way that you're looking at financial markets, global movements, the big cycle. In that, oh, I can drop you into a scenario. You'd look at a few key pieces of information. You'd know where we are in the cycle. So, I mean, starting with the three forces that we talked about at the very beginning, hey, tell me where those three forces are. You expanded it to five, but tell me where we are with those five forces. That's the chunk on the chessboard that I need. Boom. Now I know how to take that next move.

[Ray Dalio]

That's what I want to try to give to people. Okay? That's why I have the animated video on YouTube. That's why I have the book. Because it's like watching the same movie happen over and over again. You can see it and you understand the cause, effect, relations. So you can understand. So when you ask questions like, you know, how do you get better? And then we go. Dealt with the mechanics of that, like, okay, how do you get financially better off? And how do you be good with each other and not be threatened? I mean, it's just if you look at it that way and you understand the mechanics, it is what it is. That's how reality works. And then how do you deal with

[Interviewer (Tom Bilyeu)]

it makes a lot of sense. Okay, so in terms of chunking, in terms of understanding where we are in the cycle, one thing that I'm thinking a lot about is as we go into the 2024 election, I've heard credible people say that they think China is going to make a move on Taiwan in the sort of chaos of the division that we have here and the current global superpower, do you see that as a logical move on the chessboard for China? Is that something that seems plausible to you?

[Ray Dalio]

I have very good contact, so I have close contacts of on both sides and, and, and so I'm just wanting to say it rather than just throwing out an opinion. I, My opinion is that there's a political situation in the United States that, that it's really the issue of how much the United States pushes the issue in Taiwan that makes it risky because there's a, a move for, of, let's say, hawks or some. To defend Taiwan or. So let me just give you the facts. If there is a. I'm going to give you a little history, okay? Please. Taiwan was part of China. And around 1840, foreign powers came into China and they wanted to trade and do things with, with China, and China didn't want to do that. And so around that time they had the Opium wars, you might have heard that in history, in which the, the Chinese at the time said, I don't want trade. You don't have anything that I want. And then they brought in opium that the Chinese wanted so that they would have this trade and whatever. And then militarily won and took over large parts of China, took control of that. And in 1895, it was many foreign powers. And in 1895, Japan takes Taiwan. Okay, fast forward. You go into World War II. And after World War II, the winners of the war get to divide up the world and said, who. Who gets what? And Taiwan was given back to China. That's 1945. Then they have a civil war. As usual, the left and the right, they fight each other. And so the capitalists get kicked out by the Communists and they go to Taiwan and they control Taiwan. Okay, so everybody agrees that China is part of Taiwan, is part of China. But they argue who controls China. The ones in Taiwan say, oh, we control China. And the ones in Beijing say we control China. But everybody agrees with that 50 years ago. So that's a big issue in their mind because it's part of China and it's been told to them that it's part of China, Taiwan's part of China. But they, the capitalists, which is called the Guomindang, they are living in Taiwan and, and they're not controlling it. So Henry Kissinger first makes the. Gets together, goes to China and deals with reunification. And then Nixon follows and, and there's this argument and they reiterate that Taiwan is part of China. Everybody agrees on that and that there should be peaceful unification of China. And that goes on 50 years now and brings it up, up to where we are today. Okay, so a red line for China is if the United States or Taiwan says Taiwan should be an independent country, that would produce a war. And everybody knows that. All those in government would know that would produce a war. This is a big thing for them. You know, in other words, they call that period of time 100 years of humiliation. It was taken, it's promised back. And whatever it's. It's in, in their mind, an indisputable reality. Now we're in a situation in which the United States, and particularly some congressmen who are more hawkish, say, good chance they will say we will militarily defend Taiwan and then go on and sell them more military equipment. So it's very, very close to saying, I will. It's a separate state, so we're very, very close to that particular issue. So what will come. I don't believe China is going to initiate a move to, to take control of China, of Taiwan, unless the United States crosses that line, pushes that line now. So the way that it is understood and just by different part parties is it's understood by the Chinese to be the way I describe it. Look, it's been promised. It's here. You know, I mean, don't. No, that's an uncompromisable thing. And Americans, I think, think about this communist dictatorial bully that is trying to take a free country, a free people, and in a, You know, aggressive way, take over them and that we need to defend liberty and protect them from that. Okay. I just want to emphasize it's more complicated than that in the way that I said. And also it's like, from the Chinese point of view, it's part of the American containment strategy, which means China has grown and it's become a higher percentage of world economy and so on, and it's expanding and it's like, Taiwan is the lid on this boiling pot.

[Podcast Host (Tom Bilyeu)]

Hold tight. We're going to take a quick break.

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[Podcast Host (Tom Bilyeu)]

And we're back.

[Ray Dalio]

If you want to know what really happens, watch it. The way I describe it, in other words, is it unprovoked or is. Or is it provoked in the way I just described it? Now again, I'm a very realistic person. I'm not an ideological person. I'm not trying to, okay, I'm just like, how does the. How does reality work and what's the move and what's the next move? And I'm just trying to describe that reality. I'm not taking a side in it. Just like two sides in a chessboard. And I'm just looking down at the chessboard.

[Guest Expert (Neuroscience/Psychology Expert)]

In your mind, we think, what do you want? And the reality is, when you look at the neuroscience and psychology, that there are different parts of your brain that want different things. And so in the simplest sense, there is the logical part of the brain that you're conscious of. It's called the conscious. And you think you're being logical and you want to make those decisions. And then there's the subliminal below the limbic system part of the brain, which is the emotional. And it's not as conscious to you, but it has more of an influence on you than really the logical one. And so they're not aligned. And so when you're experiencing that pain, or let's say the ego, right, There were two main things. You got an ego barrier and a blind spot barrier. If you can get past your ego barrier and you get past your blind spot barrier, you can accomplish anything. Because you also know that you don't have to do everything. You don't have to figure it out yourself. You can take in from other people the different ways to approach things in the best possible way. And so the realization that we all are really struggling with ourselves and to think which is in control. Meditation helps to deal with the alignment of those two things because both are valuable. In other words, intuition, imagination, the things we really love come from our subliminal us's right, our needs, whatever they may be, they come from here. That's subliminal. They may be valuable, they may be damaging. You don't know the difference. And so when they come up and you're looking at those with your logical mind and you can align those things, you're probably in good shape. If you can do that, that alignment between the subliminal and the logical. And you can do that with other people so that you can triangulate with other people and say, does that make sense? And get alignment. That alignment is the path to the future. Because you only have to know what the best things to do are. You don't have to have them all come up from your head. And for God's sakes, don't be overly opinionated, because just because you have that opinion, it doesn't mean it's true. So that's where the two U's and the alignment really is so important.

[Guest Interviewer/Co-host]

All right, I want to talk about the process of getting those two things aligned, tying this into meditation. So in my own experience, meditation is a stillness. It's a quiet from the chatter of the mind. And more maybe profoundly than that, I can feel my brain shifts into a different gear. So maybe it's less linear thinking, it's more lateral. I'm making connections that I might not otherwise make. So is it in that still, in that quiet where you're able to look at your. What's bubbling up from beneath the limbic system, your emotional life, you're able to look at that without judgment and then able to say, okay, but this is what I'm trying to do sort of consciously. These are my plans and all of that. And now how do I. Are you altering either of them, or are you beginning to say, I need to understand if this is a useful emotional driver or a destructive emotional driver? Like, what is that?

[Guest Expert (Neuroscience/Psychology Expert)]

I think you describe it very well. And when you go deeper, by the way, you go literally into your subconscious. So you're creating a connection when you transcend. I do Transcendental meditation. When you transcend, I'm not conscious and I'm not unconscious. I am in the subconscious. I'm not aware. But if somebody make a little noise like that, boom. So it's not like being asleep. And that's also, by the way, where creativity comes from. It's like you go take a hot shower and a great idea comes, not because you're muscling it. So when you're having that, then you're calm and your natural state. And then these things bubble up and it helps that alignment. So you say, okay, let me go above myself. Let me go above myself and look at myself within the context of my circumstances. What is around me, how does that work? How does reality work? Okay, if I do this, what are the consequences? And so the going above it and just saying I'm responsible for my decisions, my life, and how do I navigate the things. The things there that I can pull the levers of to who do I get? How do I do? How do I deal with those? And going above it in that calm way is really what it's about. And when you do it well with others, so you triangulate. That's why I have the radical truthfulness and the radical transparency. When you have that radical truthfulness and the radical transparency, you're triangulating with others, you're going above it with them. And you're just looking at that circumstance and you say, okay, well, we're in the same goal, or are we? And then how do I navigate those so that we get to where we want to go? Because if you're forming your company, you've got your company. We're on the same mission together, right? So now let's all go above ourselves. What are your strengths and weaknesses? How do we get at what's true and how do we do that with transparency? And that's it. Yeah.

[Guest Interviewer/Co-host]

Oh, man. So powerful. And putting it into action, I'm really seeing exactly how it begins to allow. And I think truth is probably what you call hyperrealism. The getting to such an objective look at what is true and going back to sort of an objective look at that emotional state, which I think is where a lot of people struggle. One of the biggest and most profound, probably the only lightning rod moment in my life where it's like, whoa, my life can be divided into before for that literal, instantaneous recognition. And after, everything is completely different. And that was the first time where I realized that I was being driven by something that I had not yet recognized, which was I was telling everybody that I wanted to generate wealth in my life, but I was acting like I just wanted people to tell me that I was smart. And so the friction between those hit this collision. And so at the time, I was just a copywriter. And the guys who would later become my partners at the time were my employers. And we got this huge fight over something stupid. And I was arguing and arguing and arguing for my idea. I needed my idea to win because they were just so much farther ahead than me. They were smarter than me in that they can process data faster. And that's just true. They could think through things more rapidly than I could. So I was like, I have an inferiority Complex over how fast they think. And they're, like, 15 years ahead of me as entrepreneurs, so I just always feel like a buffoon. And so I'm starting to really feel badly about myself. And so I'm arguing for this dumb idea, Arguing, arguing, arguing. And then finally I wear them down and they agree. And I was like, shit, I know it's the wrong idea. Like, there's a voice in my head screaming, you know, this is a stupid idea. Stop arguing for it. But I needed to win. And so when they left, I thought, okay, whoa, what's real? I just need to know what's real. No judgment on me. If what you want is to get rich, you have to change the way that you're acting immediately. But if what you really want is to just feel smart, you need to leave this company. Because butting heads with them every day and feeling inferior is never gonna get you there. And so in that, I realized, wait, there's actually a third option where I could value myself entirely for learning. And if I switched my identity over from being smart, being right, being good, being worthy, to just, I learned. That's what I do. Then everything will change. And it did. Literally like that. Like, I remember that day so clearly.

[Guest Expert (Neuroscience/Psychology Expert)]

So to me, what you're describing is just another one of those, right?

[Guest Interviewer/Co-host]

Go deeper on that concept, the notion that everything loops, that history repeats, because I think people get it from, like, a US History class, but they don't necessarily understand it in their own life.

[Guest Expert (Neuroscience/Psychology Expert)]

There's practically nothing that hasn't happened before, really, if you look at the theme. So when I take your particular case, I can digress into it, but I won't. I'll come back to that in a second. Almost everything that happens has happened many, many times before. And just like I described, there's the hero's journey, and there's this and that. There's that particular path, and the whole thing happens over and over again. So my reaction to what you're saying is, yeah, that's absolutely right. That's a winning strategy. So if you step back from that and you write, okay, what happened to you? What happened to you is what we're talking about. You went above yourself.

[Ray Dalio]

Okay?

[Guest Expert (Neuroscience/Psychology Expert)]

So you exemplify it, okay? Here are the things. You went above yourself. Now, you could have had the ego thing, the big O barrier, okay? The ego barrier is going to be the thing that's sort of going to kill you. Then by reconciling what your subliminal desires were, okay? I want to be judged as smart and Then connecting that with your intellect and saying, okay, now intellect, what is really going on here? Okay? And then to be able to step out of that now you just did it alone, but you could do it with others and it's even better. And so you figure out, oh, okay, this is that here's what the choices are, here's how reality works. And so I'm just saying you did what we were talking about, right? And if everybody gets that and really understands how to go do that, the two big things is how do you get your alignment of your lower level you with your upper level you? How do you get past your ego and your blind spot? We know what the ego barrier is. Like I gotta be right or whatever it is, or I'm not good at this. The blind spot barrier is the realization that people actually see things different. They see different things. Like somebody will see the big picture, somebody will see the detail. They'll focus on different things, almost like a color spectrum type of thing. And if you realize that, you will see a part of that spectrum and other people will see the other part of the spectrum. And so that you really need to, when you go above yourself, you really need to orchestrate all those ways of seeing, because you are not just one of those people that's got to do it yourself. Your way of being the success is to go above it and be the orchestrator and know what you're good at and what you're not good at. So it's almost like if you want your life to be successful, you will not let yourself do certain things because you're just no good at them. Once you get that picture down, then you can find the paths wherever the paths are. You're open minded because now you've given up your ego barrier and your blind spot barrier. So your particular case just was another one of those.

[Guest Interviewer/Co-host]

Yeah, the concept of just another one of those, I think, is. It's bizarrely easy to miss in your book. And so I want to linger on this point for a second. And it's funny because people ask you this question all the time and you give the same answer. You're so consistent. And yet people don't spend the time that you spend. So let me encapsulate. You've done so well as an investor, it's consistent, kind of crazy. And so needless to say, people are like, all right, what's the strategy? And your answer is actually usually not specific. Your answer is, understand the historical context. Understand the historical context and get smart people around you. So you're not making decisions by yourself. So the notion of it's another one of those is looking at investing, looking at the human condition, looking at your own life as this thing that has these repeating elements.

[Guest Expert (Neuroscience/Psychology Expert)]

Every dimension of everything the way is another one of those. And so that's how you could. If I can get people to think, I want to convey what that means. And then I want to then understand how to think at the principal level. Because then life becomes so much easier. Because if you have the principle, and what I mean by that is like you could look at all the things that are coming at you, and they're just the things coming at you. If you instead think of each thing as being like a type of species, think of that as like an animal species or something. Okay, what one of those is it? And how do I deal with those? And you have your principle for dealing with those.

[Guest Interviewer/Co-host]

So you have the species coming in. You have a principle that lines up with the species. So now there's no guesswork or refiguring it out.

[Guest Expert (Neuroscience/Psychology Expert)]

Figure it's like, I don't know, it's a type of snake that's coming at you. But everything is another one of those. So when you start to think about how do I deal with that, how does reality work and how do I deal with those? So the way it looks to me, I'll speak figuratively to help to convey the image of what I mean by that. Maybe there is something like 50 different personality types. I don't know what the exact number is. And they are all living out the same scripts. Maybe they're just 50 different scripts. And then through those, you know, maybe there's a certain X hundred things through time and it seems all confusing because we're looking at them bit by bit. You know, it's like you're in a blizzard, a snowstorm, and each of these bits come at you and so on. If you can kind of step back and just say, okay, okay, what one of those is it? And it's happened before and it's happened to different people. So let's say, for example, you have a kid and you think, okay, now I'm a kid. And you could just sort of say, okay, now you're parenting. But whatever it is, you can sort of say, hey, it's happened before a million times. And in that particular circumstances. So when you realize everything happens over and over again pretty much for the same kind of reasons, okay, and you understand that, and you can almost look at who's been through it before, who knows how it works how do I best navigate that thing? What are my principles for that? Then it's great. The reason I discovered it accidentally, I discovered this accidentally is because I got in the habit that I suggest you get into and other people get into. And that is whenever you're in a situation where you're making a decision, important decision, just pause and write down, what type of decision was it and why did I make that decision that way? That's writing down your principles. It's kind of your recipe for success. And we could talk about it. And then every time I'm in a situation, I'll write down, why did I make that decision? And we could look at those criteria. Did that make sense to do that decision that way? Would you have different criteria and so on. And you do that over a period of time. Okay. And then you have your principles, and then. So they're just your reasons for making your decisions and what matters to you right when you do that. So that's why I'm encouraging you, because you're going through these. And then you have found a path in life. I viewed your story, what you just told me is just another one of those. Now you keep doing it, it'll become apparent to you how everything's another one of those. Because what will happen is the next time around you're gonna find, I don't know, let's say you're firing somebody. Use that as an example. You would say, okay, now I'm firing somebody again. Okay, now let me just kind of reflect. Would I modify that principle? And how would I do that? And then, okay, now maybe you're firing somebody who's been with you for 10 years and you love. And that's not the same as firing the son of a bitch who you wanna get rid of. So then you refine that. How should I deal with that one? And that. And why does it make sense? Because that reflection. Why does it make sense? Why does it make sense? And really wanting truthfulness, you know, not worried about being embarrassed, making mistakes. We're going on. The struggle with all of you together is a good thing.

[Guest Interviewer/Co-host]

Yeah. So the. How do you define a species? Like, how do you begin to codify all this stuff and go. Because I think it's all too easy to get lost in the. Well, this isn't another one of those. This isn't just firing somebody. This is firing somebody that I love. And so, no, there's, you know, this is simple. So different.

[Guest Expert (Neuroscience/Psychology Expert)]

It's simple because all you have to do really, is to sort. To say, if you start to think everyone's another one. And I was making a decision, I just got to write down why I made the decision. I don't care how you title it. Okay? Just write down. Okay. Okay. What are your criteria? Write it down. Well, you'll see that they're close cousins. You know, let's say, if you're saying, is it a different one because it's a close relationship that you've had for a long time or somebody is new. Okay. Well, you'll see those two things are close together. Okay. But it's another one of those things, and it changes your way of seeing things.

[Ray Dalio]

Okay.

[Guest Expert (Neuroscience/Psychology Expert)]

It changes your perspective. Again, I want to repeat. Because then life becomes easier because it's not all these bits and pieces. Okay? It's okay. It's another one of those. It gives you an equanimity, like a ninja. Okay. It's another one of these coming at me. Okay. And how do I approach this? And then you can have a conversation. It's just reality. How should you deal with that reality? And if you do that, then you think in a whole different way. Okay. You just want to get to the best way to deal with your realities.

[Guest Interviewer/Co-host]

You've talked about how about 30% of the people cannot do radical candor. It'd be great for you to.

[Guest Expert (Neuroscience/Psychology Expert)]

I call it radical transparency, but whatever. Perfect.

[Guest Interviewer/Co-host]

So radical transparency, define what that is. Exactly. And then what is it about that 30%, like, are they. They can't get rid of the ego or what. What is that?

[Guest Expert (Neuroscience/Psychology Expert)]

It's just what you're talking about. The struggle is between themselves. As you go into a conversation and you're looking at that, they find.

[Guest Interviewer/Co-host]

So the radical transparency is saying super hard shit, really direct, nice and clear. They're not good at this.

[Guest Expert (Neuroscience/Psychology Expert)]

Yes. While simultaneously saying, I don't know if that's true. In other words, if I say that I don't think you're good at that. I'm being honest. But also, who knows whether you're good at that. So how do we then go from, you think you're good at it, I don't think you're good at it. And how do we go through a process to find out together whether you're good at it or not?

[Guest Interviewer/Co-host]

How do we go through a process? That would be one of my key questions.

[Guest Expert (Neuroscience/Psychology Expert)]

Okay. The best way to do it is you do it in an agreed upon way. Okay. The idea is, okay, we say, okay, Tom, you're not so good at that.

[Ray Dalio]

I don't think.

[Guest Expert (Neuroscience/Psychology Expert)]

Okay. And then we go through the. How would we judge? Can we ask other people, do we go through this test or that test? How do we find out what's true? Because if you can find out what's true, your life will be better. Like, do you want to know what you're not good at? If you know what you're not good at, life's no problem because you don't even have to get good at it. You just have to work with somebody who's good at what you're not good at. Right? So there's a path forward when you get out of your head that you got to do that. So the only basic notion is if we were to have a relationship is. And by the way, it's non hierarchical, you could say, hey Ray, I don't think you're very good at that and I'm going to be the same way. I put it in because I needed it, because I'm worried that I'm going to be wrong. So then you come to me and you say, I don't think it's very good. Well, how do we find out in a non ego constrained, objective way whether I'm good at that or not?

[Guest Interviewer/Co-host]

Do you actually lay out criteria like

[Guest Expert (Neuroscience/Psychology Expert)]

we will do? Yeah, absolutely.

[Guest Interviewer/Co-host]

How do you come upon that criteria? Would you do this as a one on one? Would you do this in a group? How do you begin to tease that stuff out?

[Guest Expert (Neuroscience/Psychology Expert)]

First of all, in terms of the group, I like to make everything transparent so everybody could watch the same thing happening with anybody. So I mean, you would do this

[Guest Interviewer/Co-host]

in front of a large group of people?

[Guest Expert (Neuroscience/Psychology Expert)]

No, no, I would say taping, we do a lot of that radical transparency because that way people see, is it fair, is it a good process? Right? So I like to do that discussion. But anybody can do it with anybody, right? And so, but I would like to have that conversation if it's like, if I don't think you are good at something and I am relevant to your life or vice versa, we gotta work it out, we gotta figure that out together. Did you do this with your wife? In all relationships in one way or another, you have to find out how you're going to make decisions. There are going to be agreements and disagreements and you have to have the art of thoughtful disagreement. Now people find their domains differently. Maybe somebody says, okay, I'll take care of these things and you take care of that. I don't know, some people, you know, the traditional household might say, okay, I'll take care of making the money out. And the man goes out and he makes money in the world. And then one woman says, I'll take

[Ray Dalio]

care of the kids.

[Guest Expert (Neuroscience/Psychology Expert)]

We're not there anymore. But each role, I'm trying to say, in some way, you have to find out how to do the art of thoughtful disagreement. And it makes sense. And then also knowing what's good, what you're good at, and what you're not good at, it's a good thing to know what you're good at and what you're not good at. Right.

[Guest Interviewer/Co-host]

What do you do, though? Like, when you. Let's say you and your wife realize, ooh, we actually have something that we disagree with how to do with the kids. And that's high stakes. If you do something wrong, you could have a material impact on their psyche and the way that they approach the world. So there's sort of elevated stakes and there's just two of you. Unless you guys had a way of appealing to other people, would it come down? Because you said, don't worry so much about what the person's saying. Think about the process by which they got there.

[Guest Expert (Neuroscience/Psychology Expert)]

Yeah. So I'm saying whenever there's a disagreement between two people that they can't get along on that, they should pause and they should go above it and they should say, how should we deal with each other when that happens? In other words, what are our protocols for working ourselves through that so that we can then move beyond that to make a decision?

[Guest Interviewer/Co-host]

And would a specific protocol in a marriage be something like, if it has to do with the kids, you have more believability than I do. So therefore, if we can't come to an agreement, we'll go with your decision.

[Guest Expert (Neuroscience/Psychology Expert)]

That could be one of the protocols. The main thing I'm trying to convey is when people are ordinarily in an argument, they just argue and they don't know the ground rules. They don't have a process in place. So if you look above it and you come up with whatever your rules are, it may be you could have domain. It may be that you have a mutually agreed party that, that you would say, okay, let's plead our cases to and have them mediate it. It could be a lot of different paths could exist to say, ah, I think that's a good path when we have a disagreement on how we plead our cases and then move beyond it. But you need to have the path. And that's what I mean by principled level thinking. Go above it.

[Ray Dalio]

How should it be?

[Guest Expert (Neuroscience/Psychology Expert)]

Instead of, you know, this type of thing. Right. We all need that in order to have successful relationships. It's fundamental, right? When you got this and you're not going above it and saying why do you have this? Or how should this occur? Then you got trouble.

[Podcast Host (Tom Bilyeu)]

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[Guest Interviewer/Co-host]

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[Podcast Host (Tom Bilyeu)]

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