Why War with Iran Was Inevitable—Economics, Oil & Eschatology Explained | Prof Jiang Pt 2 Impact Theory w. Tom Bilyeu

Summary

Podcast Summary: Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu

Episode Title: Why War with Iran Was Inevitable—Economics, Oil & Eschatology Explained | Prof Jiang Pt 2
Guests: Professor Jiang
Date: March 21, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode features a deep, multifaceted discussion between host Tom Bilyeu and Prof Jiang, a China-born, West-educated geopolitical analyst, on the inevitability of conflict with Iran. The conversation intricately weaves together perspectives on economic strategy, oil geopolitics, the U.S.-China power dynamic, and the surprising but crucial role of eschatology (end-time religious beliefs) in shaping real-world events. The aim: to challenge mainstream narratives and equip listeners with a more nuanced, realistic model of how historical cycles, economic realities, and religious narratives interact to drive today’s most pressing geopolitical moves.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Decoding U.S. Policy Moves in the Middle East

• Tom frames confusion around U.S. escalation with Iran.
  • Initially, U.S. actions (e.g. attacking Fordow) are justified by Iran's nuclear ambitions.
  • Confusion arises as military buildup continues post-attack, with shifting justifications (nuclear, civilian casualties, etc.).
  • Tom considers the “Thucydides Trap” and the broader U.S.-China rivalry as potential driving forces.
  • Notable Quote (02:26)

    "For me to make this all make sense, I was like, hold on a second. If you inject Thucydides trap and you understand we've got a rising China, a declining America, then I'm like, this all makes sense."

• Jiang’s Analysis: U.S. strategic logic is about controlling global trade and energy to pressure China, not just direct security threats from Iran.

[01:02–02:49]

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2. The U.S.-China Dynamic: Overblown Conflict?

• Jiang Unpacks U.S. Leverage on China:
  • U.S. "Ponzi scheme" dollar needs export markets—China is key.
  • U.S. aims to monopolize oil flow and trade access to "strangle" China economically (by blocking oil from Iran/Venezuela, controlling Hormuz, etc.).
• Debunks Thucydides Trap:
  • The U.S. and Chinese elites are deeply interdependent; China is not interested in hegemonic control, only self-preservation and stable trade.
  • Notable Quote (05:17)

    "China is first and foremost interested in maintaining its national sovereignty and creating trade routes that benefit the Chinese people... this China threat has always been overblown to justify a lot of bloated spending in Washington D.C."

• Cooperation More Than Conflict:
  • Chinese ships traverse Hormuz unhindered by U.S. forces; global financial stability is a shared US-China priority.
  • Russia and Iran, conversely, are seen as true disruptors.

[02:49–08:51]

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3. China’s True Global Intentions & Historical Mental Models

• Tom’s Western Lens:
  • Cites “12 of the last 16” cases (Thucydides Trap) of rising/falling powers ending in war.
  • Perceives Chinese moves (around Taiwan, Belt & Road, Gold purchases) as aggressive global ambition.
• Jiang’s Counterpoint:
  • Interprets the Middle Kingdom narrative: Chinese focus is on internal stability, not global dominance.
  • Most elite capital and children were already sent overseas—China’s power structure is not as cohesive as presumed.
  • Xi’s crackdown is an attempt at national rejuvenation, but deeply rooted corruption and internal resistance slow true expansionist moves.
  • Notable Quote (24:22)

    "China has been signaling its intention to replace the American financial order... but really, China’s main goal is internal stability and survival, not domination."

• Military Willpower Lacking:
  • Major purges of military leadership indicate limited appetite or ability for external conflicts.

[13:48–28:27]

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4. What Comes After the U.S.-Led World Order?

• Post-Globalization Trends (Jiang’s Predictions):
  • 1. De-industrialization and De-urbanization: Disruption of cheap oil supply will force populations into more self-sufficient, rural economies.
  • 2. Nationalism and Remilitarization: Collapse of U.S.-backed global order brings resurgence of national pride and protectionism.
  • 3. Mercantilism: Emergence of self-sustaining, militarily protected trade blocs.
  • Notable Quote (29:57)

    "The current global economic order is based on the premise of cheap oil... those days are gone."

• Winners & Losers:
  • Japan’s adaptability and social unity are highlighted as model for survival.
  • China’s export-reliant, internally divided system is considered fragile in new environment.
  • Western nations, like the U.S., will likely fare better if they pull inward and defend their hemisphere.

[28:27–37:52]

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5. National Identity, Diversity, and Civilizational Stability

• Questioning Diversity:
  • Jiang: Multiculturalism should not replace foundational national unity. Overreach leads to “national suicide.”
  • Cites Europe’s refugee crisis as example; warns the U.S. is not immune but better positioned.
  • Argues for the importance of shared values over superficial markers like race.
  • Notable Quote (41:57)

    "Human civilization is a coming together of people with a common bond... we've gone too far in embracing suicidal empathy."

[41:57–45:43]

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6. Eschatology: How Religious Worldviews Drive Geopolitics

• Defining Eschatology:
  • The study of “end times.” Powerful because it gives believers a script for destiny—where humans come from, their purpose, and ultimate fate.
• Religious Motivations in Policy:
  • Christian Zionism: Huge force among U.S. Evangelicals; belief that actions like rebuilding the Temple in Jerusalem will accelerate the Second Coming. These beliefs, though “minority,” strongly influence U.S. policy in Israel and the Middle East.
  • Greater Israel Theory: Some Israeli extremists similarly fulfill these scripts by stoking large-scale conflict (e.g., potentially destroying Al-Aqsa Mosque).
  • Notable Quote (49:19)

    "Eschatology answers all three questions to the satisfaction of the human heart. And so that's what galvanizes, energizes religious extremists into action."

• Why This Matters:
  • Jiang ties predictive modeling to three pillars: game theory (rational interests), historical cycles, and eschatology (deep narratives). When all align, major change—or war—becomes almost unavoidable.
• Recurrent Patterns:
  • Religious allegories often encode historical events—viewing prophecy as compressed memory of real-world power shifts, such as early Islamic conquests.
  • Notable Quote (66:53)

    "Game theory, historical patterns, and eschatology are actually aligned together, and that's why they're so powerful together."

[48:02–67:46]

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Memorable Moments & Quotes

• “China is not interested in being a hegemon. It’s not even interested in controlling a sphere of influence in Southeast Asia.” – Prof Jiang [05:17]
• “The current global economic order is based on the premise of cheap oil… those days are gone.” – Prof Jiang [29:57]
• “Never bet against Japan. When things look darkest for the Japanese, they are a remarkably resilient and cohesive people.” – Prof Jiang [34:56]
• “Human civilization is a coming together of people with a common bond... we've gone too far in embracing suicidal empathy.” – Prof Jiang [41:57]
• “Eschatology answers all three questions burning inside our hearts... and that galvanizes religious extremists into action.” – Prof Jiang [49:19]
• “Game theory, historical patterns, and eschatology are actually aligned together, and that’s why they’re so powerful together.” – Prof Jiang [66:53]

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• [01:02–02:49]: Rethinking U.S. intent toward Iran—a lens on China
• [02:49–08:51]: U.S.-China economic strategy, Thucydides Trap debunked
• [13:48–28:27]: Prof Jiang’s biography; China’s internal focus, elite behavior, Xi’s ambitions
• [28:27–37:52]: The coming world order—deglobalization, new winners/losers
• [41:57–45:43]: On national identity, diversity, immigration, and social stability
• [49:19–54:54]: Eschatology and its real-world influence; Christian Zionism, Greater Israel
• [54:54–67:46]: Predictive modeling: how religious scripts, historical patterns, and game theory combine

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Further Resources

• Prof Jiang’s YouTube Channel: Predictive History
• Prof Jiang’s Substack: Predictive History Substack

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Takeaways

• The Ukraine war, U.S.-Iran dynamics, and U.S.-China rivalry are not distinct threads, but interwoven by deeper cycles in economics, power transitions, and even religious narratives.
• Conventional “rational actor” models (economics, military logic) are inadequate without factoring in the cultural and eschatological scripts driving elites and masses alike.
• Listeners are encouraged to develop more sophisticated mental models, incorporating history, incentives, and the deep myths/worldviews that govern the ambitions of nations.

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For Next Steps:

• Subscribe to Prof Jiang’s platforms for ongoing analysis.
• Reflect on how your mental models are built—question inherited narratives.
• Consider the role of non-economic factors (beliefs, historical cycles, group identity) in both local and global events.

Transcript

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[A]

Welcome back to part two of this incredible conversation. Without further ado, here we go. Okay, so as we look at this, when I was trying to map come up with a mental model for why Trump was pushing the issue to go to war with Iran, I was legitimately confused in the beginning because I understood the attack on Fordow. It's like, okay, they're about to get nuclear weapons. They chant, death to America. Let's just blow up their nuclear sites.

[B]

Cool.

[A]

Did it. Hey everybody, we demolished it. And then like all of a sudden he starts talking about, well, we're sending all these boats to Iran. And I was like, why? I don't understand what's happening. And so then you've got all the uprisings and just more and more and more and more ships, like we're going to help them out, all's well. But then we didn't move at the peak of them killing 30,000 plus civilians. So then I was like, what are we doing? And so then he starts talking about nuclear weapons again. And I'm just like, hold on a second. I thought that we already destroyed the nuclear capabilities, so what are we doing? For me to make this all make sense, I was like, hold on a second. If you inject Thucydides trap and you understand we've got a rising China, a declining America, then I'm like, this all makes sense. If Venezuela and Iran are a one, two punch to try to do whatever amount of quarantining or economic damage that we can do to China to make sure that they don't have access to cheap oil that's outside of our ability to sanction, I'm like, this at least makes sense I'm not saying you should do it. I'm just saying I can follow your chain of logic. One thing, you'll talk about China for sure, but you don't often mention Thucydides trap. Do you think Thucydides trap is overblown? Do you think it just doesn't apply here? What's your thinking on, could that have been the reason that Trump actually made the move?

[B]

So this is a great question. And so let us just assume that Trump is rational and that there's a logical strategy behind all this maneuvering in the Middle East. And the best explanation is that right now Trump is trying to negotiate with China. Right. Trump right now understands that the US Dollar is a Ponzi scheme. So it needs more consumers to buy into this Ponzi scheme. And China, for all its problems, the household savings rate in China is 40%. So there's this untapped market in China that Trump wants to access. But how do you force China to agree to let Chinese consumers buy US Dollars? Well, you do it by strangling the Chinese economy. Because remember, the Chinese economy is export driven. Therefore it's reliant on, on imports like oil and food. China imports about a third of its food and two thirds of its oil. China gets a lot of its food from the Western hemisphere partnering South America. Right. So that's why we saw Trump announcing the mineral doctrine, the Trump corollary to the mineral doctrine, where the Americans would control the entire Western hemisphere. So if China wanted to trade with the Western Hemisphere, the Americans have to collect a tax or a toll. And we're seeing this play out in Venezuela where the Chinese are continuing to buy Venezuelan oil, but they pay, they pay the Americans a tax or whatever. Okay? So that's the strategy in the Western hemisphere. And Iran makes sense because China imports most of its oil actually from the gcc. Right. So once you control Iran and you control the strip of Hormuz, then you basically strangle China. And now China is forced to buy more oil from the Americans, the Canadians and the Mexicans. And so that would resolve the great financial crisis America is facing. It would basically save the US Dollar. So from a rational perspective, this does hold. Okay. But there are certain issues with this thesis. Okay, the first issue is that from the economic perspective, it's very risky to use military force to resolve an economic issue. You don't actually have to go and occupy Venezuela or attack Iran. You can negotiate a grand bargain where. Or a new trade alliance, which is more like brics, you know, a more collaborative Model. Okay, that's issue number one. Issue number two is I think this facilities trap is overblown. Okay, so let me explain my reasoning. I think that China and the United States are co dependent. What I mean by that is that in 1980s America did offshore its manufacturing to China. What China did and which people don't really discuss is China offshored its elite selection and indoctrination to America. Meaning that the Chinese elite were educated in American colleges and universities. And so they have a very American mindset in many ways. China has been colonized, Sorry, America has colonized China. Okay? America. And so the Chinese elite are very pro American. And so you don't really have to strangle China. You just have to be like, make a deal with China. You just have to be nice to China because the Chinese are desperate for a deal. And there are many ways that this deal could benefits itself. Right? So Trump has talked about welcoming 600,000 Chinese students to America. Trump has talked about selling digital currency to the, to, to Chinese consumers. Right? Basically just tokens backed by US Treasuries. So there are a lot of mechanisms that he has to resolve this, this issue. I really think this US China conflict is overblown primarily because China is not interested in being a hegemon. It's not even interested in controlling a sphere of influence in Southeast Asia. China is first and foremost interested in maintaining its national sovereignty and creating trade routes that benefit the Chinese people. And I think the American policymakers understand this. And I think that these, this China threat has always, has always been overblown to justify a lot of bloated spending in Washington D.C. right. So an example is AI where you know, the Americans are like, you know, we need to spend all this money on AI because if we don't do this, then the Chinese will do this. Okay? So China is this imagined threat for many decades. And the last thing I will say is that people do not appreciate the level of cooperation between the Chinese and the Americans in this world. So the classic example is if you look at what's happening in Ship of Moose, Chinese ships are able to pass through, okay? And Americans are not doing anything to stop them. In fact, the American, Scott Besant, the Treasury Secretary, has said that we're allowing this to happen to maintain stability in the global financial order. And both the Chinese and Americans are cooperating to maintain the stability of the global financial order, the global economy. But the Russians and Iranians are interested in torpedo destroying the global economy and creating a new economic system that benefits them. Okay? So, so people don't appreciate that in terms of just pure economic interest, America and China are lied and against Iran and Russia. If that makes sense.

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[B]

No. No. It was very fair and common. Yes.

[A]

Okay, perfect. So now my mental map is that what's happening in the world right now is really a question of us and China. I'm looking at it very much like you, so it's interesting that we draw different conclusions. So I think for people that don't know you, which these days is a vanishingly small number of people, but you've got two issues. One, that you're looking at the world through the lens of game theory, and two, you're leveraging history to tell us what we're going to see in the future. And so when you look backwards at history, 12 of the last 16 times that a rising superpower collided with a declining Superpower, Exactly. Like the US And China, they went to war. So it's like, whatever, 75% of the time, this ends in war. And so I've been looking at much of Trump's movements. Who's somebody who's been banging the drum about China for a very long time, much longer than he's been a political figure, and saying, okay, this is a guy that's had his eye on China for a long time, who either intuitively or actually intellectually. Intellectually understands America's decline, understands China's rise, and is trying to find some sort of equilibrium. He's the art of the deal guy. So I think you're right. He's perfectly willing to cooperate to get a deal done, to not. I don't think that Trump is going to make any play whatsoever to infringe on China in its sphere of influence. But you're the first person I've heard say that China doesn't want to a sphere of influence. All they want is to be sovereign. So that is, like, the first bit of dissonance where I'm intrigued. I will certainly sit with it. My whole worldview is about, you're wrong about something, so you might as well race to figuring out what it is. And so, hey, maybe my whole frame of reference around Thucydides trap just isn't accurate, but I'm gonna have a hard time metabolizing that one. I'm not gonna lie. So, for instance, help an American audience understand right now, some percentage of us, I certainly don't think we're homogenized thinkers, but some percentage of us see us at war with Iran. China now has all these ships and planes circling Taiwan. We all look at that as, like, escalation. The people who think like this, which I am definitely one of, and go, oh, China is now circumstantially seeing us with our eye off the ball. They've said forever that by 2027, they want to reunite with Taiwan, which would be a huge blow to our perceived modern way of life because of tsmc. And so that feels like, given that and the Gold Corridor in South America and some of the moves with the Belt and Road Initiative, just feel like China's being more strategically aggressive then it sounds like you think they are. So help us understand why that's wrong.

[B]

All right, okay. So facilities trap was coined by a Harvard historian named Graham Ellison, and he did it for his reading of the Peloponnesian War. So I want to correct the understanding of the Peloponnesian War, right? Because the War started in Fucidis formulation because Sparta was a hegemon and Athens was the rising power. And Fus was wrong. Okay? And so, so let me explain why Sparta and Athens actually wanted nothing to do with each other. Sparta was an agricultural power, and Athens was a naval power. So the. The Spartans had a plantation economy where their entire system was based on exploiting slave labor. But because they did that, they were outnumbered by the slaves 10 to 1. And so they were always afraid of slave revolt. And that was a consistent problem throughout the history because the Spartans were notoriously brutal, and as such, they developed a very conservative, insular society, and they were not interested in international affairs. The Athenians were very different. The Athenians were a trading power, and so they were very expansionist. They were very ambitious. We know about the two because of the Persian wars. So the Persians invaded the Greek mainland, and the Spartans and Athenians were forced to come together to repel this invasion. But after this invasion was repelled, the Spartans were like, we're going to go home and we're going to stay in our land and don't bother bother us ever again. And then the Athenians created something called the Delian League, okay, Which was alliance very much like NATO today. But over time, the Athenians started to abuse their allies and turn them into vassals. And then these vassal states start to rebel against the Athenians. And this is what led ultimately to the Palestinian war. And then Sparta was dragged into, unwillingly into this war, and then Persia was as well. So it's not as easy as Graham Ellison and Thucydides are making out to be. And there are parallels to our Mars society where it seems as though China and America are at war. They're in conflict because these are two economic hegemons. Do you think about it? The real issue is that America is trying to exploit its allies, right? So let's go back to two months ago when Trump was saying, I'm going to take over Greenland, I'm going to take over Canada, I'm going to take over the entire Western hemisphere. And. And you Europeans, you need to pay more in n spending, you need to move to 5%. And also I'm going to charge you tariffs for trade because we're America, we're indispensable, and you have to follow along because you're vassals, right? So that's really the real conflict going on in this world where America is trying to maintain the unipolar order and its allies see that America has become arrogant and is engaged in bullying behavior. So they're trying to break away somehow. And ultimately, if we just read the Palestinian war, this will lead to open conflict between America's allies and America eventually. And then perhaps China, Russia will be dragged in. But ultimately, China and Russia don't want a conflict with America. So, so, so, so does that make sense to you?

[A]

I mean, it's certainly believable that nobody wants a war with another great power. It's just so destructive and can take so many years. I can certainly buy why Russia is creating because of what's going on in Ukraine. They would really not want to be a part of this now. I've read enough about Xi and how he's sort of the. What's the phrase? The ambition grows in the Eden. Right? They've had China's heads, I don't have to tell you, but so much incredible success over the last 40 years. I mean, it's really breathtaking. And that has to leave somebody with the feeling of, like, we can do even more now. This is so interesting, and I am so grateful to you for letting me say these series out loud to somebody who's really in the middle of it. So in my reading about China and Xi specifically, there's this idea of the Middle Kingdom. And so a big part of my mental map of why I think this is like the most perfect Thucydides trap ever is that China's gone through, you know, the century of humiliation. You guys come out of that, never again. We're not doing that anymore. We're thinking very long range, we're going to take our power back. And you've actually done it. And so just like, Trump strikes Venezuela and realizes, oh, like, I've got a really good military, I can, like, really start doing some stuff here. I look at China and I go, how do you guys not look at what you've accomplished and go, oh, okay, like, we need to be methodical, we need to be thoughtful. And maybe we've got a housing crisis right now, so maybe we need to chill for a minute. But we know how to play this game. And so we're going to keep going, keep going, keep going. And so from the Western lens, it looks like Xi's consolidating power, he's purging the military, because he wants to get everybody aligned with his future vision, where he wants to take things. And it feels like somebody who thinks, hey, this is all working, I've got ambitions. But in terms of, look at the gold corridor, right? So just, you know, China wants to get out from under the dollar they're selling their debt. They're again, this is speculation based on watching how you're moving. But the banks in China, the central banks, are buying up a ton of gold. They're talking about, hey, guys, we're going to back our currency. They're a little wishy washy about that, but they're buying so much gold and then appealing to the world to use the yuan as the reserve currency. You start putting two and two together and you go, oh, I get the play. Talking about housing gold actually in other countries. And if they can find a partner that will back them and say, hey, we vouch the gold is here, it's not controlled by China, we've got it. Like you can just. The moves are so smart that I cannot help but then project onto it that this is somebody who's not stopping now. And so that's where I bump into the looking at China as just completely sanguine and like, yeah, I don't want any conflict. I get that they don't want open conflict. I can totally buy that. But they've got the big agenda with Taiwan and they've made so many smart ally moves that if I'm China and I'm watching the US alienate all of their allies while I've been building all of mine, while they're shooting themselves in the face economically and okay, we've got a little bit of woes here, but like, we're going to get back on track. We're far more disciplined. 40% savings, all that, that just creates this mental model that I have of the ascendant China who's not going to be told what to do by a clearly dysfunctional United States.

[B]

I think that's a great analysis. And I think you're absolutely right in that China has been signaling its intention to replace the American financial order with a new BRICS system based on gold. And that's why it's creating the Shanghai Gold corridor. So I think what you say makes a lot of sense, and I think it's really part of Chinese policymaking to create as much economic diversity in the world as possible to hedge against the Americans. The way I look at the world is through game theory. And for me, what's really important is how nations have behaved in the past. So when you say the Middle Kingdom, the Middle Kingdom from a Chinese perspective, just means that we don't care about the rest of the world. We've never really cared about the rest of the world. All we care about is the internal stability of China, because historically and this is very important is that China has been poor and corrupt. And so rebellions against the government are very commonplace. And so your entire state apparatus is structured to ensure that local rebellions don't arise. And in the 1980s, there was a solution to this problem of local rebellions when basically the communist system had an agreement where we will engage in economic reform and we will allow the elite to engage in corruption. Okay? And so that incentivized the elite to promote economic reform and turn away from the old socialist model of Mao Zedong. And in 1980s this was very controversial, but because of the financial incentives, the elite engage in market reform. But then you have a tremendous corruption problem. Also, where was this money going? Right? They were engaging in this corruption. They weren't putting in China because it was not safe because they're stealing this from the government. Right? So this was being transferred overseas to America, to Canada. And look, I mean, like, I don't go into specifics, but I will tell you, like the amount of capital that was being transferred overseas was just tremendous, okay? So much so that really the Chinese economy is now suffering under a deflationary spiral, okay? But it was not just capital that went overseas, it was also the elite that went overseas. Right? The children, the families of the elite, all are now overseas. And I don't want to go into specifics, but you know, if they are overseas, where are their national interests aligned? Right. They want peace and harmony between China and America because they see China as a plantation economy where they can continue to exploit the economy and, and then take their ill gotten aims and then, and then take it over to the Western joy or Western lifestyle. Okay? And for many decades, this was just the way business was done in China and it worked to the tremendous benefit of the Chinese elite as well as the Western economies. And then when President Xi came to power, he recognized that this is not sustainable in the long term. Eventually our economy is going to collapse. Eventually we're going to have rebalance all over the place. And so he started to clamp down on corruption and he started to focus on national rejuvenation, on creating a national identity. And from him, for his, from his perspective, the way you do that is through unifying with Taiwan and establishing an independent economic system that is based on the Chinese Yuan as opposed to the US dollar. So that was his intention. But again, the reality is that China is a very corrupt place and so the elite are rebelling against him. And so these past two years, you know, and this is about information. Most of the generals in the Military have been purged for corruption issues, for other issues as well. Meaning, like the military does not have the political will to engage in a foreign conflict anywhere. So, yes, I understand there's the intention of the state, but then there's the cultural reality in which we live in. If this makes any sense.

[A]

Sorry, makes a tremendous amount of sense. It is the kind of thing that explains your absolute meteoric rise. This is a very, very useful conversation. I'm very grateful. Okay, so that's a very clear picture of China that is very different, I think, than the common person in America would view it as. I'm going to put that back on the shelf. Let it sort of sit in the background as we get back to Iran and look at what I want to talk about is we've got those two things. So we've got China's. The realities of everything. We've got US Empire acting the way that failing empires do. They're flailing, they're acting like bullies, they're overextending, they're getting themselves in trouble doing anything that they can to hold on to the vestiges of their empire. A thesis that you've put forward that I find very compelling is that the current world order, the post World War II order, the monolithic US as global hegemon, those, those world orders are done. They're already dead. And maybe you're watching the death rows or whatever, but the New World Order is coming. And I want to understand what does the new World Order look like? And as with Iran as pivot point, what does it look like? How does this play out? How deep do we go? And why is there no sort of ability to preserve the current world order?

[B]

First of all, the entire. The current global economic order is based on the premise of cheap oil, right? Because cheap oil is basis for everything. You know, like from the shape of Hormuz, you don't just have energy. You also have fertilizer, which allows you to grow food. You also have sulfuric acid, which is what allows you to process semiconductors. Okay? So cheap oil, cheap energy is the basis for the entire global economy. The reality is the shuttle moves is not going to open tomorrow. It's probably going to stay closed for the next few years. Meaning, like, the world loses access to cheap oil, okay? So we need to think ahead and see what this means for the rest of the world. And so I would say there are three major trends that we should expect in next four to five years. All right? And I think, I think these trends will be very, very Salient. So the first major trend is de industrialization and deorganization, meaning that it doesn't really make sense to have millions of people live in cities doing digital work. Why? Because the economy is unbalanced. You need people to grow food and then you need manufacturing as well. Before you have to worry about this because it was a globalized economy where you can import food. All right? And like just, just, just think about how if you're a middle class American, you basically have a higher stand of living than the Roman emperor because you could, you know, every day go to the market and eat avocados, cherries, you can have food from all around the world all the time. And again this is because of access to cheap oil, but that those days are gone. And, and basically like economies need to become a much more balanced economy. And that means moving people from the cities, especially young people, and moving them back to the rural areas so that they can grow food and be self sufficient. Okay, that's, that's going to be trend number one. Trend number two is like before globalization was the religion, was the faith of the times. But now, but now that globalization is collapsing because American power can no longer support globalization, nations need to reassert themselves. Okay, so you have the rise of nationalism, which then allows for remilitarization in order to protect their borders better, right? Because before you could just rely on American military power for protection, but now you have to defend yourself. Right? And you do that through rejuvenating people's sense of national pride and identity. Okay, so nationalism remilitarization is the second big trend. The third big trend is mercantilism. Okay? Basically self sufficient economic spheres around the world. And it's going to look, it's going to look different, differently in different places where Europe might be a trading block onto itself, but in other places, maybe Israel, maybe Japan, create their own economic zones through military power. And then in the Northern hemisphere, I think that America will come out okay, because really, I mean like, like America is a superpower regardless, right? So America retreats from the rest of the world, but, but then it builds an anarch system within the western hemisphere and then it's fine. So, so, so, so we're seeing a rupture or splintering of the world and going back basically to 1930s.

[A]

That's wild. Okay, so who are going to be the winners and who are going to be the losers in this?

[B]

Right? So basically whoever, whichever nation is most able to embrace these trends and transform the economies from one that is globally dependent to much More nationally dependent will survive. Okay? So that's why I think that Japan in Asia is actually better positioned than China because the Chinese economy is too export orientated. Okay? China, the Chinese economy just, just relies on dumping cheap goods onto the global market. And you can do that again with cheap oil and a global marketplace. But once, you know, nations start to go into war and then they no longer trade, then China is forced to become much more insular. And unfortunately, the Chinese economy is not balanced. Meaning, like it's completely dependent on exports. And consumers don't actually have any demand because consumers don't have any capital, they don't have any savings to spend money on. Consumers are afraid of the future. They lack confidence. Okay? So China is in a very tough situation because the Chinese economy and Chinese planners are not able to make the transition from one that is a global economy to one that is a much more regional economy. Okay? Japan, on the other hand, has a history and a record of making radical transformations when the existence of the nation is at stake. Okay? So you just look at Japan, you think, oh my God, Japan is completely screwed because they have an aging crisis, because they are completely dependent on resources from abroad. They don't actually have their own oil. And the Japanese economy has been in a deflationary spiral for the past 20, 30 years. You think Japan is completely screwed, but when all hope seems lost, the Japanese somehow come together and then transform their entire, their entire system. Okay? And so this goes. So I'll give some, a few examples where, you know, in the 1200s or 1300s, when the Mongolians were coming to invade Japan, and Japan at this time was, you know, like feudal system. They came together as a people and we, and we post the Mongolian nation not once, but twice. Okay, that's very impressive. Then you go, go to Meiji Reformation, right? Which is the mid 19th century when China had already been carved up by the Western powers. And Japan's like, okay, we need to industrialize now. And they did so in 20 years. All right, so much so that, yeah, so much so that Japan defeated Russia in the Russo Japanese War. And, and then you go, you go to the end of World War II when the Japanese economy was completely devastated. So what happened? The Japanese people came together and in 20 years time, they became the world's dominant manufacturing power. The Japanese are special people. Never ever bet against the Japanese. So even though the things look darkest for the Japanese, they are remarkably resilient people and cohesive people. So I think they are the most likely to make the transformations necessary in order to survive the new global order. Another thing I will say is the aging crisis where every industrial economy is suffering from the aging crisis, right? You have people living in the 90s into the hundreds and they're not working, but they are just consuming a lot of resources and every industrial nation is going to suffer from this issue. The Japanese are different. Meaning if the Japanese nation is under stress and there's a crisis and the elderly in Japan need to make the necessary sacrifices in order for their grandchildren to survive, they will do so and no other nation in the world will do this. Okay, get the baby boomers in America to make sacrifices for America. I mean you can make argument that a lot of the issues in America come from the fact that the baby boomers are a selfish, materialistic and self absorbed generation that refuse to surrender power. Right? I mean like, like look at the baby. Look how old their congress is. You've got this guy, Chuck Grassley.

[A]

How old?

[B]

He's like 94 or something. He's still, he's still there. What is he doing?

[A]

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[B]

Right. So the idea is that after World War II there was a lot of discussion as to why World War II happened and the agreement was excessive nationalism. Right. These nations like Japan and Germany became fascist. And so what we need to do is dilute the national fever of people around the world and then you have eternal peace. And so a concept that came into popularity at this time is something called the open society where you have Open borders, multiculturalism, diversity, and now celebrated as a way to create common bonds among humanity. And for the longest time, this made a lot of sense. And clearly I benefited from this because I was allowed to immigrate from a poor village in China to go to Toronto, and they get a full scholarship to study at Yale. So I clearly benefit from this system. But now we've reached an extreme where to have any sense of community, to want to belong to a group, is considered racist and backward and provincial. And I think that's just wrong. I mean, like. I mean, like, I've been watching the spread of DEI in the United States, and I just think it's. It's just, like, it doesn't make any sense to me. I. I appreciate diversity, I preach, I appreciate multiculturalism. But to make it your official religion and to punish anyone who wants more balance in society, who wants to protect the American identity, I think. I think it's. It. I mean, like, it's just wrong. I think it's just fanatical. And I think that if you embrace too much multiculturalism, which is what the Europeans are doing, it will lead to eventually suicide, national suicide. Okay, so the example is in 2014, you have millions of these refugees from the Middle east fleeing war and terror created by the Americans, and they're going to Europe. And quite honestly, the Europeans did not have the capacity to absorb these millions, tens of millions of refugees. But Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, said, we can do this. Okay? And it's been a dumpster fire for Europe. Right? You're talking about, like, civil war possibly emerging in Europe over the next five to 10 years. You look at what's happened in Britain, in France, their populations are being replaced. You know, and, and, and, and I'm not saying this is. I'm not saying, you know, refugees are bad. What I'm saying is that nations need to protect their own identity and value system, because that's what gives meaning and purpose to the local population. I don't understand why people are allowed to immigrate wherever. You know, we. Like, like, like, it's. It's absurd to me. Where. You know, I'm from Canada, and there are a lot of Canadians who hate the liberal government of Canada because they're very authoritarian, and I'm one of them. Okay, but you just, like, you just shouldn't be able to, like, pack your bags and then move to America or Dubai or Singapore. You should. You should have to stay where you are and fight for your community, because that's what we've done. Throughout human history, like, if we always had the option of like this, like, if we're unhappy just moving somewhere else, we would never have human civilization. Human civilization is a coming together of people with a common bond, with a common sense of identity, and then building on top of that. Right. So, I mean, I feel we've gone too far and we've embraced. I mean, like, the very common phrase now very popular phrase is suicidal empathy. Right. Where you care too much about your neighbor and when you should really be looking after your own house.

[A]

Yeah, that's an idea that's gaining a lot of traction here in the US as we all think through how exactly do we deal with this problem? The thing that I've been trying to convince my audience of is that values matter. And so a lot of people are getting tangled up in this concept as if it were a race issue. It's not a race issue. When you find somebody that, say, shares your religion, but they're a completely different race than you, you're far more bonded over the fact that you share a religion than you are alienated that they don't look like you. And for some reason, especially here in the west, we have just told the story over and over and over that everything comes down to your skin color. But I just refuse to believe that that's the experience people are actually having. It comes down to, do you click with somebody? Do you guys view the world the same way? Do you enjoy each other's company? And if you look exactly like me, but I can't stand to be around you, I don't have any sense of affinity towards you whatsoever. So, yeah, that one's very strange to me. Now, speaking of that, as you were talking. Sorry, go ahead.

[B]

I feel I want to jump in here because this is an important point where DEI multiculturalism, it's being used to justify the bureaucratization of society. Right. So this is not so apparent in America, but if you go to Europe and Canada, it's really apparent where these nations are essentially authoritarian, where you say, anything now, the police can come knock on your door.

[A]

That's crazy.

[B]

So you go, you go to England where, you know, if you are part of these, like, grooming gangs, well, the police don't come after you, but, like, if you post about grooming gangs, they'll come knock on your door. Right. And so France Kafka writes about this in his book the Trial, where bureaucrats don't bother with criminals because it's a pain in the ass. So they go after ordinary citizens because ordinary citizens are compliant and allows them to feel good about themselves and to collect their paycheck. So that's what we're seeing throughout the Western world, not in America, but in Canada and in Europe, where you have the rise of this bureaucratic overclass that justifies its existence by virtual signaling. Right. By stopping on people who want a sense of community and identity.

[A]

Yeah, no, it's well said, and it's wild that Kafka was writing about this. It just shows you that. And some of the stuff Orwell was doing, these are just baked into the human psyche. And so they repeat over and over, because these guys are writing from 80 years ago. I mean, this is not like recent stuff. This was very predictive a long time ago. Speaking of predictive. So part of what has made you so famous is that you made these predictions a couple years ago that Trump was going to get elected. This is before 20, the 24 election, that we would go to war with Iran and that we would lose the war with Iran. Now, there's a key part of your thesis that we haven't touched on as to why all of this plays out, that we teased at the beginning. And I think we should pull into center light now, which is the religion of it all. So once you talk about eschatology, which I had never heard before, so I had to look that up. So if you would, given that it's basically religion, but in the extreme, walk people through what eschatology is, why you use that word instead of just saying religion, and then why you think that you're. We're never going to understand what's playing out right now unless we understand that.

[B]

Right. So eschatology comes from the Greek word eschaton, which means the end. So eschatology literally means the study of the end times. But what it really means is your understanding of how the world ends or how humans can become unified with God. And different religions have different eschatologies. So that's the word eschatology. And as you point out, it's usually extremists who embrace eschatology. But the problem with eschatology is that it's very, very powerful because as humans, there's always three questions burning inside our hearts. The first question is, where do we come from? Second question is, what are we doing here? The third question is, where are we going? And eschatology answers all three questions to the satisfaction of the human heart. And so that's what galvanizes, energizes religious extremists into action. If you look at eschatology the most passionate people right now in America are people called Christian Zionists, right? So evangelicals are about a quarter of the American population. And then among the evangelicals, there are these very passionate people who are only minority, okay? But they're Christian Zionists. And the technical term for them is premillennial dispensationalists. And so what they believe is that the world is theological, meaning that God has a divine plan that he voiced in the Bible. So if you read the Bible properly, it will tell you where the world is going and how it will end. And so what they believe is that God has a divine plan. If you have faith in God, what you do is you accelerate the plan, okay? You cannot defy the will of God, but what you can do is accelerate his plan. And so these Christian Zionists believe that Jesus will return, but certain conditions have to be met before Jesus can return. So the first condition that needs to be met is that Israel needs to be reconstituted as a nation. Why? Because the Jews are God's chosen people. And God has a covenant with the Jews, which is the land of Israel that God promised Abraham, their ancestor. Okay? So that's the first condition that needs to be met. Second condition that needs to be met is the Jews need to build Solomon's temple, the Third Temple, and then the Jewish Diaspora have to return to Israel. They all have to return. Okay? You can't be living in the United States. You have to go back to Israel. And then there has to be a war of Gog and Magog, and then the Antichrist will emerge to lead the. The Jews to threaten the Jews. Sorry, I was going to say. Wait, hold on. Sorry, sorry. Yeah, sorry, sorry. It's very confusing because these eschatologists have different details. Okay, but then when the Antichrist is most threatening the existence of Israel, then Jesus will return to save the Jews. And when he returns, Christians will be raptured up into heaven. Okay, so you're Christian, you really believe in Jesus. When he returns, you're going directly to heaven. But if you're not a Christian, then you're going to suffer. Then Jesus will institute something called the millennium. A thousand years of eternal peace where Jesus rules the world. And at the end of the millennium is the Day of Judgment, where he will judge you a good person or a bad person. If you're a good person, you live forever. You're a bad person, you'll burn in hell forever. Okay, so that's what these Christian Zionists believe. It's a very simplified version, but as you can see, it's a very compelling story of what you should be doing, of how you can accelerate the coming of heaven onto earth. And unfortunately, these Christian Zionists are embedded in the very fabric of American political life. So I'll give an example where Peter Hexagon is recruiting a Zionist. If you just. He has these crusader tattoos on his body. He's talked about rebuilding the third Temple. Okay, well, that's an issue. Is the site where they want to build the third Temple is where the Al Axiq Mosque is. So you would need to destroy the Al Axiq mosque first in order to build the third Temple. So the Al Axiq Mosque is the third holiest site in the Islamic world. Only Mecca and Medina are more holy. And the Isaac Mosque is apparently where Muhammad ascend to heaven. And. And for the longest time is mosque was actually controlled by Jordan. And so only Muslims are allowed actually in the Alexic Mosque. But what's been happening these past few days is that the Israelis have shut off access to the Isaac Mosque. And there are rumors that the Israelis might do a controlled demolition of Isaac Mosque and blame it on the Iranians.

[A]

Yeah, and that strikes me as a terrible idea in that it will be one, immediately people will just assume that they did it, and then two, that that will galvanize the Muslim world against Israel in a way that has never happened before. What do you think will happen if they destroy the mosque?

[B]

It's all been planned out where destroying the mosque is very important because as you point out, it will galvanize the entire Muslim world against the Israelis. And two, and this is really important is that you will see a surge of anti Semitism throughout the world where everyone sees the Israelis as crazy fanatics and the Jews as enabling the. The Israelis. Okay. But it's all part of their plan because remember, for their plan to work out, first of all, all Jews need to return to Jerusalem and there has to be a war of Gog and Magog where the entire world unifies and attacks Israel. Okay, so there's certainly Azic mosque accomplishes both objectives. And yeah, I mean, I know it sounds crazy. So, so I'll so, so. So go ahead and ask some questions.

[A]

Well, so the big thing is how much credibility do you put in that this is really a driver that these different eschatologies. And there's more to talk about. But I think rather than detail out each of the different eschatologies just to know this idea you've got. Christian Zionists believe one thing that's driving them to make decisions at the nation state level that may have had some influence in us going into the area, may have some influence in whether we are allies with Israel or not. Then you've got extremists within Israel that believe in things like the Greater Israel theory, and they want to take over more land and they want to actually piss people off and they want this war of Gog and Magog, which would be great if you. Because there's a theory about what current nation states are. Gog, Magog, and they're both in play right now. And so understanding that would be useful. And then people will at least have the package from which to understand where we'll go from here. But understanding whether you think this is a primary driver, whether you think this is just a fringe theory, and how much of this you actually think has predictive validity.

[B]

When I do predictive modeling, I'm looking at different theories. And when these different theories converge together, I can make a pretty accurate prediction. Okay? So there are three major theories that I look at when I make predictions. The first theory is game theory, which is I just look at the different interests of the different nation states. That's game theory. And I look at historical patterns, which is like, how do empires behave as they decline? And so I look at Rome, I look at the British Empire. I look at different historical instances of empires in decline. The third thing is I look at eschatology, I look at religion. And why eschatology is important is that it's a script for people to follow over the centuries and they can slowly build towards this script. Okay? So when I do these three things, when I look at eschatology, when I look at game theory, and when I look at historical patterns, then I'm forced to conclude that they will eventually destroy the Alexic Mosque and force the war of Gog and Magog. Okay? So first of all, what I'm going to do is explain to you how in your minds, how historical events should unfold. Okay. How these current events should unfold. And then I'll explain to you the religious rationale for why this should happen. Okay? All right. So in the mind of these religious extremists, and they're Jewish and Christian, they want this war in the Middle east to destroy both Iran and the United States. Okay. Basically, they want the United States running ground troops to Iran. It becomes another Vietnam. It is extremely unpopular in America. There's a natural draft. There's a civil war in America, and now America is forced to retreat from the Middle East. This is important because America is not actually part of this eschatology. And so how do you get rid of the American empire? Well, you cause civil war back in America. Okay, that's number one. Number two is that once Iran is destroyed, the Israel is able to achieve the Greater Israel Project because there's no, there's no longer any local opposition towards Israel. So remember, like by this time, the GCC nations are also destroyed, right, because of this war. So Israel is now very quickly able to achieve the Greater Israel project and build something called the Pax Judaica, which is basically an AI surveillance state. And so it's basically what they did in Gaza these past 10 years and then scaling out across the Middle East. And so what they're going to do is they're going to allow transnational capital to come in and build up their AI infrastructure and they're going to import millions of laborers from India, China and the Philippines to work their system. And Paka will become the main trading block for the world. Because if you are Russian, if you're Russian, you want to access African, the African market, you have to go. You have to go through Paka, the Greater Israel, just because of how trade routes are established. And then Greater Israel is then able to export its surveillance technology throughout the world and help other nations build up their surveillance networks. Okay, but then because Israel has destroyed the Isaac Mosque and built their Solomon's Temple, the Third Temple, this galvanizes the Muslim populations to rebel against the governments because the government's actually very pro Western, right? So this creates this religious jihad fever among Muslim extremists. And so you see a reordering of the Muslim world where governments overthrown very much like the Arab Spring. And, and so, and now what's gonna happen is like the Muslim world is going to unify eventually again and join an alliance of Russia and Iran. Okay? So by this time Iran will have rebuilt itself, and then Russia will. Of the Orthodox world will form alliance with the Islamic world and they will march against Israel and it's called the War of Gog and Magog. And then of course, this will lead to the end of the world where nuclear weapons might be used. So that's how they perceive historical events playing out. Does that make sense?

[A]

It's all very clear. There's an internal logic. The only thing that I'm trying to pin down is you've got three things. Are they sort of of equal value or do you think that one is bigger than the other? Because the eschatology part is where certainly my mental map is. Yeah, These guys are on the fringes. Yes, there's like, they can get their own base riled up, but in a world that is governed far more by economics than it is by religious purity or enthusiasm, I don't expect that to be the primary driver. And a very weird set of events would have to trigger to get enough people to believe that. I'm really trying, like, I'm actually trying to bring back God. That. It just seems like that part has the. It gives a nice flavor to the whole thing, but it would be the lowest in predictive validity. So I'm very curious if you think that has equal predictive validity to the other two things you walked us through. Game theory, historical precedent. Is this like an equal third player, or is this like a. Well, just by way of mentioning everything. Let me throw it in.

[B]

So let me try to explain this slowly, because it's actually very complicated. Okay. All right. We first have to ask where does this eschatology actually come from? And what I think is that whenever you have prophecy, it's probably a lost historical memory. Meaning, like the prophecy that they have is something that historically happened before in the past, but we've lost the memory of it. And if you look at history and you try to reconstruct history, this prophecy, this eschatology, where would it come from? And the. And I think it would come from the rise of Islam. And this happened in the seventh century. All right, so what's happening is like, Persia and Rome are at war with each other. The Romans are called the Byzantine Empire. Okay, so you have two major powers. The Persians and the Byzantine Empire are at war with each other, and they're fighting over Jerusalem. Why are they fighting over Jerusalem? Because Jerusalem is a major trading nexus. If you control Jerusalem, you're able to control Egypt. And Egypt historically has been the main agricultural nation in the Middle East. And at this time, the Jews were very much trying to reestablish themselves back in Jerusalem because they've been expelled from Jerusalem by the Romans. And so they went to the Persians for help, and they convinced the Persians to come in. And at first it succeeded, but then the Byzantine struck back and retook Jerusalem and slaughtered a lot of Jews. So under threat, they escaped into the Arabian desert. And Jews have been in the Arabian desert for a long time. And then they anointed their messiah, a man named Muhammad. Okay? And then Muhammad created something called the Constitution of Medina, which is this grand alliance among believers. Okay? So his father's words, and they call believers, and then they march to march against Both the Persians and the Byzantines, and they were very quickly able to overwhelm both the person and the bison. Why? Because by this time, both of these empires have been exhausted through years and years of war. In fact, there was civil conflict within their nations as well. And so they really didn't offer that much resistance against a galvanized army of religious fanatics. Okay. And so they were able then to establish the caliphate, all right. Which was this grand alliance between Christians, Jews, and Muslims. And we've lost this memory because those who succeeded this caliphate had invested interest in discussing the fact that there's a revolution happening. Right. Because now they're the empire, so they want to disguise the revolution. Okay, so. So. So is this making any sense to you so far? Are you following along?

[A]

It does. And I'm reading between the lines, though, because really, what I'm trying to establish, as I'm sure you're aware, this is the part of your thesis that people are going to lean on and say, that's all crazy. That's conspiracy theory. You're applying way too much to this. So I'm just trying. I think you think this is a pretty major part of the predictive recipe, and that if you fail to understand that this religious eschatology is actually tied to historical events, so it's historical events said in a religious, allegorical way, then you're really missing something important. So that answered my question in terms of, I think you believe that it has predictive validity and that people are getting lost in the religion of it all instead of realizing that this is just another way of saying this is how things have played out historically. So, yeah, it answers my question. Assuming that that was an accurate representation of what you just said.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, sure. Something to keep in mind is like, for most of the human history, we've kept history, the lesson from history, using allegories. Right. Using stories, because we didn't have writing. You didn't actually write stuff down. You actually told stories. And by telling stories, you have to make them much more imaginative. So I think eschatology is actually just lost historical memories of patterns that emerge through time. The reason why these religions are so powerful is that they have access to thousands and thousands, thousands of years of human history. Right. Which then they condense into patterns that then they relay onto their followers. Yeah. So another of saying this is that, like game theory, historical patterns and eschatology are actually aligned together, and that's why they're so powerful together.

[A]

Dr. Jiang, this time has been absolutely incredible. I cannot thank you enough for taking the time to do it. And then also just your meteoric rise I think is extraordinarily justified. You've got such a unique take on this, obviously very deep, very broad in terms of your background and poetry and things that just give you such a different lens on this. Where can people follow along with you online?

[B]

Yeah, so there are two ways to follow me online. The first, the best way is from my YouTube channel, Predictive History. And then I have a substack which actually goes deep and analyzes geopolitical events to give you insight into how things should progress. And it's a pretty of history.substack.com I love it.

[A]

Awesome man. Thank you again for taking the time and everybody at home, if you have not already, be sure to subscribe and I will see you next time my friends. Take care. Be legendary. Peace. Let's talk about a pattern that is guaranteed to be killing your progress. You know what you need to do. You need consistent nutrition. We all do. You need vitamins, probiotics, greens. We all know that we should be doing more of it. When your morning gets chaotic, you skip it. When you travel, you skip it. When your routine breaks, everything tends to break and that inconsistency compounds against you every single day. AG1 is designed to solve the execution problem. One scoop 8 ounces of water and you're done. You're getting 75 plus ingredients, vitamins and minerals, pre and probiotics, nutrient dense superfoods. Everything that used to require six, seven different supplements and perfect planning now happens in one drink that takes about 30 seconds to make. Right now, AG1 is giving you $87 worth of free gifts with your first subscription. You get a welcome kit, travel packs, vitamin D3 plus, K2 and flavor samples. Click the link in the show notes or visit drinkag1.comimpact to claim this offer. Lifelock how can I help? The IRS said I filed my return, but I haven't.

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