Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint.. I’m Nelson John and here are today’s top stories.

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Markets Hold Their Breath

“Brace for more uncertainty.” That’s the sentiment driving investor caution as US-India trade tensions flare once again. According to Mint’s quarterly market survey, 77% of investment professionals expect volatility to continue, especially if the pending trade deal throws up new tariffs or penalties.

With earnings under pressure and foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) pulling out nearly ₹18,000 crore in July alone, India’s equity rally looks fragile. Sectors like oil & gas, NBFCs, public sector banks, and pharma are expected to anchor Q1 earnings. IPOs may inject temporary optimism, but experts agree: it’ll take more than listings to restore lasting investor confidence.

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India & US Bet on Africa’s Minerals

As global demand for critical minerals heats up, India and the US are looking to Africa. The goal? Break China’s 70% dominance in refining key elements like lithium, gallium, and graphite—used in everything from EVs to solar panels.

Both nations are discussing joint investments in African projects, leveraging India’s business ties in East Africa. Meanwhile, India is stepping up at home with a ₹16,300 crore National Critical Minerals Mission and 368 new exploration projects. Despite these moves, the IEA warns diversification will be slow, with China likely to remain dominant even by 2035.

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Japanese VC Eyes Turn to India

India is emerging as a new hotspot for Japanese venture capital. With returns slowing in Japan and Southeast Asia, firms like Incubate Fund Asia, BeyondNext Ventures, and Enrission India Capital are doubling down on Indian startups.

In H1 2025, Indian IPOs raised over $6.1 billion—four times the Southeast Asia tally. Incubate Fund is closing in on a $100M India-focused fund. BeyondNext is raising $50M, while Enrission has already allocated its entire $120M corpus to Indian bets in biotech, robotics, and deeptech. Even corporate giants like Suzuki and SMBC are stepping in, backing clean energy, fintech, and semiconductor plays.

The result? Japanese VC dollars are flowing in—with patience, and long-term conviction.

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The Man Who Rejected $1.5 Billion

Andrew Tulloch, an Australian machine learning whiz and ex-Meta and OpenAI veteran, has become Silicon Valley’s latest legend—for saying no to what could’ve been a $1.5 billion job offer from Meta.

Tulloch, now at Mira Murati’s Thinking Machines Lab—a $12 billion AI startup still in stealth—reportedly turned down Mark Zuckerberg’s offer to lead Meta’s new superintelligence unit. Meta has disputed the number, but Tulloch’s viral LinkedIn profile tells the story of a man who’s betting on building the next wave of AI.

So far, no one from Thinking Machines has defected. Tulloch’s move signals a shift in Silicon Valley: not just chasing the next paycheck, but redefining what’s worth building.

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India-US Trade Deal Hits Turbulence

Despite strong ties, a comprehensive India-US trade deal remains elusive—and Trump’s return to tariff tactics has made the road even bumpier.

Experts warn India may lose up to $33 billion in exports. New Delhi, in turn, is considering reimposing digital taxes on Big Tech firms like Meta and Amazon. But the real hurdle? Philosophy. While the US demands access to India’s agri and dairy markets, India resists, citing food security and employment. Throw in geopolitical friction—over Russia, crude imports, and data sovereignty—and the mistrust only deepens.

Utsav Verma of Choice Broking says, “It’s not just about tariffs—it’s about different worldviews.” For now, hopes rest on sectors like climate tech, defence and resilient supply chains to keep the engagement alive.

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