Richard Urwin, Chair of the Investment Committee at Saranac Partners, the $6bn UK wealth manager, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss how he is approaching asset allocation at the current juncture. They discuss how long term valuations and asset class return forecast help inform Saranac’s strategic asset allocation and delve into some of the structural forces that may influence the economic outlook and asset class returns in the coming decade. While shifting demographics, climate change, high deficits and rising debt levels all have the potential to contribute to higher inflation and higher bond yields, Richard is cautious about being too pessimistic about the outlook and sees good opportunity in credit and alternative assets and strategies. They also discuss how Saranac think about selecting and sizing hedge funds in their portfolios and how this has changed in a higher interest rate environment.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:45 - Introduction to Richard Urwin

06:31 - A noticeable shift?

08:49 - What is Saranac's investment philosophy?

13:06 - Dealing with structural shifts as an asset allocator

18:07 - How confident are they in forecasts?

24:24 - Balancing competing forces

30:08 - How Saranac builds balanced portfolios

33:55 - Do they consider supply shocks in their portfolios?

40:00 - The dangers of pessimism

44:27 - Their approach to alternative assets and strategies

48:38 - Their perspective on high-risk managers

51:15 - Their manager selection process

55:06 - How does the current environment dictate investing?

58:13 - About Urwin's PhD on option pricing

01:02:40 - Advice for other allocators

01:05:16 - Thanks for listening

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ALO24: Managing Money Through Structural Shifts ft. Richard Urwin