Alan Dunne welcomes Paul Donovan, Chief Economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, to this episode for a thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Together, they explore the structural challenges facing Europe and whether the current wave of pessimism is overstated. Paul highlights how data mismeasurement contributes to the gap between perception and reality while acknowledging the hurdles for productivity growth in Europe. They also consider whether comparisons between Europe’s economic trajectory and Japan’s stagnation are valid and discuss the prospects for U.S. growth under President Trump. The conversation also examines the recent inflation cycle, the potential effects of new U.S. tariffs on inflation, and the implications for Federal Reserve policy.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:28 - Introduction to Paul Donovan

06:02 - The state of the European economy

09:19 - The notion of fairness is changing

13:55 - Can a new economic model emerge?

18:54 - Has Europe become Japanified?

22:21 - Should Europe worry about lagging behind on tech?

29:04 - An economic plague in the UK

34:02 - How can economists address the happiness of the people

38:15 - What have the cost of things stayed high?

44:32 - The potential for supply side economics

49:48 - Why tariffs are inflationary

52:21 - How bad can the tariffs war get?

56:18 - How tariffs could impact interest rates

59:00 - How will the rest of the decade look in terms of growth and inflation?

01:01:30 - Advice for other economists

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GM76: Are We Being Deceived by Economic Data? ft. Paul Donovan