Steven Bell has seen the macro machine from every angle - Treasury insider, hedge fund manager, and chief economist. In this wide-ranging conversation with Alan Dunne, he traces the quiet erosion of economic orthodoxy and why AI, not tariffs, may prove the more destabilizing force. Bell explains how Fed independence is fraying, why wage dynamics matter more than headline inflation, and what investors miss when they over-index on models. With stories from trading floors and policy rooms alike, this episode captures a rare perspective: someone who’s watched markets evolve, not just from charts, but from inside the decisions that moved them.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Steven on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:20 - Introduction to Steven Bell

05:37 - Has the challenge of forecasting economics changed?

10:27 - Was it easier to be a money manager back in the days?

13:11 - Is emotion and hysteria taking over markets?

16:48 - Tariffs disappearing? Forget it

21:41 - The economic impact of the recent CPI data

24:38 - How tariffs will impact workers and productivity

28:54 - Bell's outlook for inflation

32:15 - Do deficits even matter?

36:51 - How messy will the Fed's handling of inflation be?

44:16 - Who is a likely replacement for Powell?

45:11 - An AI productivity boom

49:14 - Bell's outlook for the economy

56:32 - Navigating the consensus view on the dollar as an economist

01:01:06 - Macro advise for other investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM85: What If the Real Risk Isn’t Recession — But Reinvention? ft. Steven Bell

Powered by Wave AI