Top Traders Unplugged – GM97: Why Isn’t Anything Breaking?
Guest: Steen Jakobsen
Hosts: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, Alan Dunn
Release Date: February 18, 2026
Episode Overview
This episode of Top Traders Unplugged dives deep into the evolving global macro landscape with veteran market observer Steen Jakobsen. The conversation threads pressing macroeconomic anxieties—including regime change, the fragility of the political and financial system, the changing nature of capitalism and central banks’ role, and the increasing importance of tangible assets. Steen brings his trademark candor and provocative thinking to questions of currency, commodities, AI disruption, state intervention, and the slow grind of systemic risk. If you’re seeking clarity on why “nothing seems to be breaking”—despite all the stress signals—this episode is for you.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The Path into Finance & Steen’s Background
- Steen’s Origin Story: Influenced by his uncle, a legendary Scandinavian FX trader, Steen entered markets seduced by the energy and chaos of the trading floor.
“One day uncle invites me into this massive trading floor ... I just said to myself, I gotta be here. This, this is the place to be.” — Steen Jakobsen (03:51)
- Saxo Bank & Outrageous Predictions: His claim to fame includes founding Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions, intended to provoke critical thinking and challenge consensus.
2. Macro Regime Shift: What Should Investors Ask Now?
- Seismic Shifts: Major geopolitical fragmentation, loss of trust in institutions, rising populism, ballooning debt, and tectonic currency moves define today’s environment.
- Central Question: Should non-USD investors start hedging for the first time in years? The “regime shift” is now structural, not tactical.
“It’s a regime shift ... not a trade, whether you’re long or right. If I was writing a macro letter...this is a regime change.” — Steen Jakobsen (08:41)
- Global Capital Allocation: A slow leak out of USD/MSCI World into smaller asset markets (e.g., Scandinavia, LatAm), driven by policy and dollar weakness, could have outsized impact given thin liquidity.
Timestamp: [08:06–11:14]
3. US Growth, K-Shaped Economy, and Labor Data
- K-Shaped Recovery: US data splits: strong labor market at the top, but the bottom “leg” is nearing collapse.
“The employment data comes into the lower end of the K, the K that turns down...I’m pretty sure the lower K will play a bigger and bigger role going into the second part of the year.” — Steen Jakobsen (12:13)
- Fed Response: Expect focus on easing short-term rates to reduce burden, but this will be a brief relief due to structural lags.
Timestamp: [12:11–13:59]
4. State Capitalism, Asset Markets, and Low Volatility
- State Capitalism: Markets are increasingly managed by governments—allocation of resources/fiscal policy is the new driver.
“The first impulse or the first derivative is low volatility...not only do you have tailwind atom, but you’re also driving downhill in the early parts of this cycle.” — Steen Jakobsen (15:15)
- Advice to Allocators: Fully load risk early in the year and progressively de-risk through 2026 as state support wanes and volatility may re-emerge.
Timestamp: [14:49–16:51]
5. The Dollar’s Outlook: Is Consensus Wrong?
- Risks to Dollar: Liquidity accidents (esp. in treasuries) are the likeliest catalyst for renewed dollar strength—a scenario not in consensus.
“I believe in flow and stock. The stock is that the market maker doesn’t have the balance sheet to take all that money...liquidity will be number one. And then, of course, escalation of war...” — Steen Jakobsen (17:30)
Timestamp: [16:51–19:39]
6. Central Bank Independence and the Fed’s New Era
- Fed Leadership and Politics: The next Chair’s ability to forge consensus is more important than pure brilliance; risk of losing central bank independence looms globally.
- Models Are Outdated: The Fed’s frameworks are relics; the global economy’s structure has fundamentally shifted.
“Most of their models was built in the 1950s, 70s....today 55% of earnings in S&P 500 comes from overseas.” — Steen Jakobsen (22:12)
Timestamp: [21:03–24:40]
7. AI’s Impact: Productivity, Hype & Data Quality
- AI, Disinflation & Waste: Steen is skeptical of breathless AI promises, especially for open-ended applications—worries more about misinformation and productivity loss.
“If you have closed databases ... it’s absolutely productive ... But if you have open ended databases ... it’s probably negative productivity because you create so much waste and disinformation.” — Steen Jakobsen (25:27)
- Data Is Critical: Whoever has clean data gains productivity—AI is only as good as the information it works with.
Timestamp: [24:50–27:21]
8. Geopolitics, State Capitalism & Systemic Risk
- Towards a “Modern Soviet Union”: State-driven economic models, absent genuine price discovery, create initial stimulus but ultimately breed fragility and lower productivity.
“We live in ... a system where the market doesn’t dictate the marginal price of anything... welcome to the modern version of the Soviet Union.” — Steen Jakobsen (27:58)
- Democracy Wins Long-Term: Less democracy leads to cycles of eventual collapse; only breakdown brings renewal.
“The only way things change is because they break down. So I think this ultimately...leads to a breakdown of the system, both—and most importantly—the political one.” — Steen Jakobsen (29:50)
Timestamp: [27:21–31:23]
9. Why Isn't Anything Breaking? Signals to Watch
- Breakdowns Take Time: Systemic events happen slower than we expect; resilience is nearly “infinite.”
- Key Warning Sign: Watch the dollar—a breakdown in the USD is the clearest signal of systemic cracks.
“If you can have only one indicator for the global economy...I would choose the dollar.” — Steen Jakobsen (34:00)
Timestamp: [33:19–35:30]
10. Commodities Super Cycle & Real Economy Shift
- False Starts: True super-cycles are triggered by monetary system resets, not just geopolitical shocks.
- From Intangibles to Tangibles: For a functioning world economy, the share of tangible assets (now 10% of S&P500 value) must rise—fueling real productivity, jobs, and potentially a commodity boom.
“For the world economy to function ... the 10% [tangible] needs to grow to 25, 30% ... the bad news for us in banking ... the better paid job in the future are people who can actually deal with innovation on the ground.” — Steen Jakobsen (40:30)
Timestamp: [35:30–42:17]
11. Biggest Systemic Risks Today
- Market Concentration: The biggest vulnerability is extreme concentration in a handful of mega-cap stocks. If one major name stumbles, losses will compound.
“If it was to come to an effect where Nvidia disappointed ... the system [is] extremely fragile ... the concentration risk ... is the single biggest risk.” — Steen Jakobsen (43:42)
- Energy Shock: Shortages/price spikes (esp. processed uranium) could catalyze stress.
Timestamp: [43:42–46:11]
12. Gold, Markets, and the Message
- Gold’s Signal: Rising gold signals “huge debasement” of purchasing power—watch your family office’s balance sheet in gold, not dollars.
“It just tells you that the dollar is ... gold is telling you that the purchasing power of what is left in the US is really going down significantly.” — Steen Jakobsen (47:03)
Timestamp: [46:11–48:27]
13. Who Does Steen Jakobsen Follow?
- Key Influences: Macro sessions with global managers, investment bank research (for consensus), and whatever Stanley Druckenmiller says.
“If you want to sort of cheat something out of me, I’ll say anything that Stanley Dargan Miller says I’m listening to.” — Steen Jakobsen (49:18)
14. Closing Thoughts: Is There Any Optimism?
- System Will Resist Change: The breakdown is slow, the system is resilient, but renewal will only come from political realignment.
“This is an extremely slow moving process which the system will fight against. But we need a breakdown in the political system to reestablish good tone, good respect, good order.” — Steen Jakobsen (50:54)
- Micro Genious, Macro Challenges: Innovation and adjustment at the micro level can thrive even as policymakers remain “diplomatically challenged.”
Notable Quotes (with Timestamps)
- “I just said to myself, I gotta be here. This, this is the place to be.” — Steen Jakobsen (03:51)
- “It’s a regime shift ... not a trade, whether you’re long or right.” — Steen Jakobsen (08:41)
- “The first impulse or the first derivative is low volatility ... you’re also driving downhill in the early parts of this cycle.” — Steen Jakobsen (15:15)
- “If you can have only one indicator for the global economy ... I would choose the dollar.” — Steen Jakobsen (34:00)
- “For the world economy to function ... the 10% [tangible] needs to grow to 25, 30% ... the better paid job in the future are people who can actually deal with innovation on the ground.” — Steen Jakobsen (40:30)
- “If it was to come to an effect where Nvidia disappointed ... the system [is] extremely fragile ... the concentration risk ... is the single biggest risk.” — Steen Jakobsen (43:42)
- “Gold is telling you that the purchasing power of what is left in the US is really going down significantly.” — Steen Jakobsen (47:03)
- “Anything that Stanley Dargan Miller says I’m listening to.” — Steen Jakobsen (49:18)
- “This is an extremely slow moving process which the system will fight against.” — Steen Jakobsen (50:54)
Key Timestamps
- Steen’s entry into finance: 03:45–06:32
- “Regime shift” and investor mindset: 08:06–11:14
- K-shaped US economy & Fed policy: 12:11–13:59
- State capitalism & market advice: 14:49–16:51
- Dollar mechanics & risks: 16:51–19:39
- Central banks, models, and AI: 21:03–27:21
- Systemic fragility & the “modern Soviet Union”: 27:58–31:23
- Breakdowns, dollar as key indicator: 33:19–35:30
- Commodities & “10% economy”: 35:30–42:17
- Market concentration risk: 43:42–46:11
- Gold’s warning signal: 46:11–48:27
- Steen’s info diet: 48:51–50:25
- Closing reflections: 50:54–51:57
Tone & Language
Steen speaks with candid, sometimes provocative clarity, layering decades of experience with a willingness to call out what others ignore or sugar-coat. The conversation is deeply macro, unsentimental, and at times darkly humorous. The hosts probe without bias and engage in the same pragmatic, no-nonsense tone, making for an insightful, jargon-free discussion suitable for professional investors and the curious market observer alike.
Summary prepared for listeners seeking a comprehensive, nuanced understanding of where global macro is headed—and what might finally break.