Top Traders Unplugged — SI384: Building an Inflation-Proof Portfolio ft. Yoav Git

Host: Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
Guest: Yoav Git
Date: January 24, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the challenges of building portfolios resilient to inflation, with a focus on systematic investing and the interplay between trend following, commodities, fixed income, and macroeconomic forces. Yoav Git, a seasoned portfolio manager at Gresham Investment Management, joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to dissect how investors can develop “inflation-proof” or “all-weather” strategies and why commodity trend and fixed income can be the cornerstone of robust allocations in uncertain times. The conversation weaves through timely market events, insights from recent research, and practical considerations for allocators.

Key Discussion Points

1. State of the Markets & Inflation in the Spotlight

[00:30–03:44]

• Yoav’s personal & professional update: A busy start to 2026, with trend strategies performing well, intensive work at Gresham.
• Inflation on Yoav’s radar: Recent podcast episodes featuring Mark Blyth and Bill White (via Alan’s interviews) sparked fresh thinking about inflation's social impacts and monetary policy implications.
• Quote:

  "Following them, these are two beautiful podcasts...Mark [Blyth] is a much more social, what is the social impact of inflation...Bill White, a much more conservative sort of Fed type of outlook on inflation." (Yoav, [01:40])

• Cultural moment: Yoav jokes about adopting a Scottish accent, referencing his daughter’s feedback.

2. Global Political Risks & Portfolio Robustness

[03:44–06:56]

• Geopolitical instability: Niels laments the political fallout over Greenland, eroding trust among allied nations.
• Portfolio implications:

  "We as investors, we need to imagine the unimaginable...focusing on building robust portfolios that may not give you the highest returns but will get you through the next five, seven years safely will be the key thing to focus on." (Niels, [06:10])

• Core message: Robustness over return maximization; uncorrelated strategies and assets are crucial in an era of trust breakdowns and unpredictable macro shocks.

3. Market Roundup & Volatility in Commodities and Bonds

[06:58–11:30]

• Recent market turbulence: Geopolitical noise triggered roller-coaster moves, especially in commodities.
• Examples:
  • US natural gas futures up 71% in a week, driven by weather—not geopolitics.
  • Sharp moves in Japanese government bonds (JGBs) and yen.
  • Carbon emissions markets highly volatile.
  • Gold’s strength as “breakdown of trust in fiat currencies.”

    "Ray Dalio...says you've got to have gold in your portfolio. It's really quite impressive." (Yoav, [09:20])

• Performance snapshot:
  • Soc Gen and BTop50 trend indices up 3–4% for the year.
  • MSCI World up 1.5%, S&P 500 TR up 0.5%, bonds flat.
• Regional & asset class trends:
  • FX, especially EMFX (emerging markets), has solid trends (Yoav’s angle: carry trades).
  • Credit choppy, bond markets volatile due to debt and policy divergence (US vs. Japan).
  • De-globalization and energy transition—secular drivers supporting higher inflation.

4. The Inflation-Proof Portfolio

[17:21–22:40]

Yoav’s "ERAS Tour" Blog & Research Collaboration

• Yoav outlines his paper co-authored with Adam Pedal (senior commodity researcher at Gresham), focusing on inflation-proof asset allocation.
• Main question: How can an allocator construct a portfolio robust across different inflation regimes (high, rising, falling, low)?
• Equities:
  • Excellent in low inflation (CPI + 10-15%), but only deliver “CPI + 0%” in high inflation.
• Bonds:
  • Perform well when rates are low/falling, but underperform (CPI minus returns) and become correlated to equities in rising inflation.
  • Key risk: Bonds no longer offer diversification during inflation spikes.
• Commodities:
  • Mirror image of bonds: outperformance in inflation, poor in low inflation.
  • Commodity trend strategies provide positive returns in both environments.
• Core finding:

  "If you put like a portfolio like simply a 50% commodities, 50% bonds, you get something which is truly all weather...CPI plus 4% in all environments regardless of whether it's high or low inflation." (Yoav, [21:18])

5. Understanding Inflation Regimes & Commodity Trends

[22:40–27:02]

• Historical symmetry: Yoav notes, by constructing inflation boundaries, that markets have spent just as much time in rising as in falling inflation over the past 70 years.
• Commodity moves can signal future CPI:

  "So if you talked about natural gas, if you have less storage...when there is a cold spell...start seeing big trends in natural gas, for example." (Yoav, [26:16])

• Commodity trends are driven by supply shocks, not merely demand/inflation prints.
• Caution: Don’t rely on forecasts; build for resilience.

6. Implementation: "Commodity Trend" Explained

[30:05–32:39]

• Definition: For their research, “commodity trend” means trend following only on commodities, not mixed with financials.
• Allocator perspective: Some allocators specifically want real asset exposure for inflation-hedging, preferring pure commodity trend vehicles over blended CTAs.

7. Structural Pushbacks & Philosophical Headwinds

[32:39–36:21]

• German institutional reluctance: Niels notes how many German investors avoid commodities for philosophical or policy reasons, despite the diversification benefits.
• Commodities as true diversifiers:

  "Commodities are a beautiful diversifying asset class...it would be a shame not to allocate to it." (Yoav, [34:03])

• Green transition investments: Discussion of ESG mandates vs. pension fund return obligations.

8. Trend Followers & Impact on Markets

[36:21–40:25]

• CTAs as liquidity providers: Example of trend funds facilitating liquidity in the new lithium contract market as EV demand rose.
• Price manipulation myths: Trend followers are often unfairly blamed for spikes (example: cocoa); in reality, they provide early liquidity and risk management.
• Market size perspective: The total CTA industry is not large enough to corner or “cause” moves in major commodity markets.

9. Deep Dive: Fixed Income Trend, Autocorrelation, and Carry

[41:01–57:46]

Recap of Rob Carver’s Research

• Carry vs. Spot in Trend Following: Review of Carver's findings—carry (and the underlying asset's “Sharpe”) better predicts trend following returns than spot moves alone.

  "If you look at the Sharpe of the underlying market, bonds and FX and metals seem to be actually producing [strong returns], whereas equities are unable to essentially to harvest the underlying trend." (Yoav, [45:57])

• Equities’ muted trendability: Negative autocorrelation over certain horizons reduces trend strategies’ efficacy on equities vs. fixed income/FX/metals.
• Mathematics of trend:

  "The autocorrelation of the underlying price is really important. Trend is about positive autocorrelation. And...in equities, it's actually negative." (Yoav, [48:43])

• Manager specialization: Performance in fixed income trend is possible with domain-specific expertise and risk models.
• Timing strategies is challenging for allocators; stability is key:

  "It's very difficult for allocators to [time strategies]...I think stability and offering something which is, you know, CPI plus 4%...covering all historical situations...is a very valuable thing." (Yoav, [43:53])

10. Thematic Wrap-Up & Importance of Japan

[57:46–59:36]

• The Japan story: Japanese monetary shifts and the end of the yen “carry trade” have significant, underappreciated global implications.
• Quote:

  "Japan and what's happening there...is actually much more important than people may realize." (Niels, [57:49])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "We as investors, we need to imagine the unimaginable..." — Niels ([06:08])
• "If you put...50% commodities, 50% bonds, you get something which is truly all weather...CPI plus 4% in all environments." — Yoav ([21:18])
• "Commodities are a beautiful diversifying asset class...it would be a shame not to allocate to it." — Yoav ([34:03])
• "The autocorrelation of the underlying price is really important. Trend is about positive autocorrelation." — Yoav ([48:43])
• "Japan and what's happening there...is actually much more important than people may realize." — Niels ([57:49])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Inflation as the key theme & podcast influences: [01:30–03:06]
• Breakdown of geopolitical trust & investor implications: [03:44–06:56]
• Commodity volatility & trend following snapshot: [08:52–11:30]
• All-weather portfolio research (ERAS tour): [17:21–22:40]
• Inflation regime analysis & commodity signals: [22:40–27:02]
• Commodity trend vs. multi-asset CTA discussion: [30:05–32:39]
• Debate on commodity investing in traditional allocators: [32:39–36:21]
• Trader impact vs. market myths (cocoa & lithium): [36:21–40:25]
• Carver’s research on autocorrelation & asset class trendability: [45:25–54:37]
• Japan as a structural macro risk: [57:46–59:36]

Concluding Thoughts

This episode provides a rich, nuanced exploration of portfolio construction in an inflation-prone world. Key actionable takeaways for investors:

• Combine bonds with commodity trend as an all-weather, inflation-resilient core.
• Seek true diversification beyond equities and traditional asset mixes.
• Understand structural market dynamics—carry, autocorrelation, and cross-asset behavior.
• Recognize that market regimes repeat and that resilience, not forecasting prowess, is key to long-run success.

Listen if you want an expert-level toolkit for building (and justifying) robust portfolio allocations in a world where the old playbook is obsolete.