Hey friends 👋

You know the pattern: founder has a big idea, founder protects the idea, founder keeps polishing the idea until it becomes too precious to test.

It feels productive. It also feels safe.

Which is exactly the problem.

This week, Cameron and JDM kick off the Startup Pseudoscience Series by taking aim at one of the most comforting founder myths: that the great idea is the hardest part. We steelman the claim first, then put it through the same evidence-based lens we use on startup pitches.

Ideas are starting points. Hypotheses. Directions to walk in a messy process where the destination probably does not exist yet.

From survivorship bias and founder mythology to the very real temptation to brainstorm forever with Claude instead of talking to customers, we dig into why founders overvalue the thing that cannot hurt them yet. The stronger idea is not the one you have thought about longest. It is the one with evidence behind it.

Plus: Mezcal Old Fashioneds, Michelin Guide pizza in Sacramento, and a homework assignment you will absolutely try to avoid.

As always, thanks for listening.

—Cameron and JDM

Timestamps

00:00 - Introduction

02:15 - Steelmanning the “great idea” myth

05:30 - Evidence, survivorship bias, and founder mythology

12:45 - Time to customer and the safety of ideation

17:45 - Falsification: turning bad ideas into good businesses

23:45 - Frivolous Thoughts

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit zerototraction.substack.com