Trading Secrets Episode 268 — Summary

Guest: Ryan Serhant (CEO & co-founder of SERHANT., star of Netflix’s “Owning Manhattan”)
Host: Jason Tartick
Release Date: December 15, 2025

Main Theme

This episode dives into the current state of the real estate market with Ryan Serhant, explores behind-the-scenes details of “Owning Manhattan” season 2 on Netflix, and unpacks what it means to live a completely public life as a business leader and reality TV personality. The conversation is a masterclass in real estate trends, reality TV production, personal brand management, and the fine line between professional opportunity and privacy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Real Estate Market Deep Dive (05:54–38:45)

• Market Stalemate: Scarcity & Immobility
  • Market isn’t “buyer” or “seller” — few people want or are able to move.
  • Homeowners reluctant to sell due to high rates; new buyers struggle to enter. (06:56–08:52)
  • “It’s nobody’s market. You have pockets of good volatility.” — Ryan Serhant (06:56)
• Delistings & Pricing Disconnect
  • Sellers are refusing to reduce prices, leading to high delisting rates.
  • 90% of U.S. mortgages are still under 5%, creating “golden handcuffs.” (12:12–12:38)
• Co-Ownership & First Time Buyers
  • New trend: friends/roommates jointly buying via LLCs.
  • Median age for first-time buyers now 40, but many transactions are parent-funded. (10:25–11:02)
• Cash Dominance in High-End Markets
  • 60% of deals in NYC are all-cash in 2025. (13:09–13:13)
  • "Which is exactly what the Fed wanted.” — Ryan Serhant (13:13)
• Policy Impact
  • Critique of stagnant $500k capital gains exemption from 1997 tax law.
  • On Trump’s 50-year mortgage proposal: "No one’s going to have a mortgage for 50 years… But it gives the bank the ability to underwrite a lower monthly payment.” (16:14)
  • "People need to stop paying attention to headlines and actually read articles… The last paragraph is where the truth is." — Ryan Serhant (16:52)
• NYC Politics & Housing Regulation
  • Rent freezes without expense/tax relief drive landlords to abandon properties, echoing 1960s NYC. (20:21–22:11)
  • Policy must incent both “interns and the C-suite”: “I’ve never seen a company work successfully where everyone is compensated exactly the same when they do different work.” — (20:45)
• Market Prediction
  • Predicts 10–15% more trades in 2026, not due to inventory, but necessary “liquidity in the system.” (13:50)
  • NYC will see price/rent increases 3–4% over the year: “The only way you bring down prices is not with rates… but with fear or by creating new inventory.” (34:49–36:20)
• Divorce Rates Tied to Interest Rates
  • Predicts “gray divorce” spike as rates fall and couples can afford to split households.
  • Divorce law and wealth management are primary referral sources for agents. (31:55–34:08)
  • “Sex is bad, but the interest rate’s too good, babe.” — Ryan Serhant (32:07)

2. Reality TV & Owning Manhattan: A New Genre (40:14–47:50)

• Inventing a New Viewing Experience
  • Designed show as a “docudrama” with narrative thread, direct-to-camera engagement.
  • “I wanted to create a TV show no one had seen before. And you have to do that each season, or you do not value the viewer’s time.” — Ryan Serhant (40:14)
  • Netflix analytics: viewers pause and rewind when Serhant breaks fourth wall (41:29).
• Earned Media Value
  • For SERHANT., the show’s earned media value exceeds $100 million.
  • “If it had flopped? 500K. But Netflix is the world’s biggest distribution funnel for quality.” (42:47–42:56)
• Family-Friendly, High-Impact TV
  • Intentionally leaned away from “sex and language” shock value.
  • “More kids watch Owning Manhattan than any other reality TV show… because they watch with their parents.” (43:30)
  • A bet on decency as differentiator: “I think there’s a big audience going the other way; what can you watch with your son?” (43:45–44:20)
• Production Inspirations
  • Drew on business thrillers like “Arbitrage” for narrative and cinematic elements.
  • Noted Easter eggs and bold story structure; high engagement — “A massive pivot this season; people rewatch it.” (46:49)

3. Building the SERHANT. Brand Differently (51:29–55:14)

• No Signing Bonuses, No “Buying Talent”
  • “We don’t buy anybody… If I have to buy revenue, then I don’t want to do it.”
  • Some brokerages offer $1M+ to retain star agents, but “if people come for the money, they’ll leave for the money.” (52:28)
  • “I choose freedom over golden handcuffs.” — SERHANT. agent (53:20)
• Commission Breakdown
  • Example: 3% on $60M deal = $1.8M, split varies (50/50 to 90/10) by marketplace. (54:09)
• Brokerage Margins
  • Real estate companies’ revenue is big, but low margin; most money made by agents. (54:48)

4. Living Publicly: The Business of Transparency (55:14–57:18)

• Full Transparency vs. Privacy
  • Advocates “burning the boats” — choosing either full privacy or all-in public persona.
  • “I chose public. All in. From the moment I wake up to the end of the day, you can hate, it doesn’t matter, I don’t care.” (55:54)
  • Friend Dave Portnoy cited as another example: market expects brutal honesty, which increases resilience and brand value when missteps happen.
  • “Predictability, like we talked about before, makes sense.” (57:18)

5. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Market:
  • “If you’re not even in the game, you’re not even on the field, you’re not in the minor leagues… It’s hard.” — Ryan Serhant (06:56)
• On U.S. Housing Policy:
  • “No one has saved enough to be able to live their later years of life with supervision. So all these things are happening at the same point.” — Ryan Serhant (08:52)
• On Reality TV & Content:
  • “Content is a meritocracy now. You’re only as good as your last episode or season.” — Ryan Serhant (41:34)
• On Industry Imitators:
  • “I think we’ve created a new genre. It’s a heightened docu-occupational series… they better thank me.” (42:32)
• On Recruitment:
  • “If you marry for the money, then you’re going to stay for the money… Same thing in a company.” (52:28)
• On Handling Criticism:
  • “Never interrupt your enemy when they’re making a mistake.” (47:50)
• On Leadership & Hiring:
  • “Great people are uncomfortably expensive, but bad people will cost you a fortune.” (62:28)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• State of the Real Estate Market: 05:54–38:45
• Effect of Political Policy on Real Estate: 20:21–26:50
• Federal Reserve Rate Cuts & Impact: 29:56–31:40
• ‘Gray Divorce’ & Real Estate: 31:43–34:08
• Market Predictions & Historic Perspective: 34:42–38:45
• Reality TV Production Choices: 40:14–47:50
• Recruitment & Compensation Practice in Real Estate: 51:29–55:14
• A Public vs. Private Life: 55:14–57:18
• Rapid-fire, Memorable Quotes: Throughout; see above.

Trading Secrets & Final Takeaways

• New paths to homeownership (co-buying, parent-funded), alternative real estate structures, and widespread cash purchases are reshaping urban markets.
• Real value in branding and earned media for real estate business comes from innovative, widely appealing content, not just shock value.
• Transparent, all-in personal branding enables resilience and growth, even amidst scrutiny and industry rumor.
• Strong hires are worth the (often uncomfortable) cost; “bad people” are far costlier in the end.
• “Diversify referrals” — divorce attorneys and wealth managers drive high-value real estate deal flow.

Memorable Final Thoughts

• “You have to burn your boats; you’re either private or you’re public. You can’t have it both ways.” (55:54)
• “Great people are uncomfortably expensive, but bad people will cost you a fortune.” (62:28)

For Further Viewing & Connection

• Owning Manhattan, Season 2 — Netflix
• SERHANT. — ryanserhant.com & social media

For those eager for insights on real estate trends, how reality TV can serve a business strategy, or what it's like to live entirely in public as a modern CEO—this episode delivers candor, tactical knowledge, and fresh perspective in equal measure.