
Hosted by Ed Porter, Modo Energy · EN

The atmosphere is unpredictable, and weather forecasts are far more reliable on some days than others. For anyone trading power or gas across Europe, knowing the difference is everything. It's what separates a confident call from an expensive guess. In this conversation, Ed is joined by Matt Dobson - Head of European Energy Forecasting and Emma Patmore, Energy Meteorologist from MetDesk. They walk us through when they can trust what they're seeing and when they can't, and how they turn an uncertain forecast into something traders can actually act on. Along the way they cover wind droughts (or Dunkelflaute), a possible record El Niño, river levels that shut down power stations, and the rise of AI weather modelsThey cover- How weather forecast accuracy isn't fixed: Why a day-ahead wind forecast lands within 10–15% around 80% of the time, but a shifted low-pressure track can swing output 30–40%.- Dunkelflaute explained: How a blocking high-pressure system causes a wind drought, and why the longest recent German event ran nine days in early November 2024.- El Niño and energy markets: Why a milder autumn means lower heating demand and gives traders reason to sell Q4 gas.- AI weather models vs traditional models: why AI is pulling ahead at the 10–20 day horizon while traditional models stay sharper on fine-scale detail.- Heatwaves and nuclear power: How 40°C heat in France and low river levels force nuclear curtailment and Rhine freight limits, echoing 2022.Want to see how weather is moving European power and gas prices right now? Ask Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst: Free sign up: https://modoenergy.com/sign-up?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=podcast_apps&utm_campaign=metdesk&utm_content=ko_signupRead the companion article here.You can watch or listen to new episodes every Tuesday. Transmission is a Modo Energy production. Your host is Ed Porter - Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy.Chapters0:00 - How weather forecasting drives energy markets1:01 - What everyone gets wrong about weather forecasting1:26 - Why forecast accuracy changes with the time horizon4:03 - Saharan dust and solar power generation6:02 - How weather varies over short distances7:11 - Dunkelflaute explained: wind drought conditions8:20 - German wind power and the nine-day wind drought11:08 - Teleconnections: El Nino, ENSO and the MJO12:54 - Record El Nino forecast and what it means17:30 - Trading El Nino: gas, hydro and Alpine snow17:56 - Why traders go short Q4 gas18:58 - ECMWF data and ensemble forecasting19:35 - How weather ensembles work: 151 members21:39 - AI weather models vs traditional forecasting23:25 - Are weather forecasts getting more accurate?26:17 - Climate change and weather forecasting27:50 - French heatwaves and nuclear power curtailment31:10 - Low Rhine levels and freight restrictions33:11 - The polar vortex and sudden stratospheric warming36:15 - The Beast from the East explained

The atmosphere is unpredictable, and weather forecasts are far more reliable on some days than others. For anyone trading power or gas across Europe, knowing the difference is everything. It's what separates a confident call from an expensive guess. In this conversation, Ed is joined by Matt Dobson - Head of European Energy Forecasting and Emma Patmore, Energy Meteorologist from MetDesk. They walk us through when they can trust what they're seeing and when they can't, and how they turn an uncertain forecast into something traders can actually act on. Along the way they cover wind droughts (or Dunkelflaute), a possible record El Niño, river levels that shut down power stations, and the rise of AI weather modelsThey cover- How weather forecast accuracy isn't fixed: Why a day-ahead wind forecast lands within 10–15% around 80% of the time, but a shifted low-pressure track can swing output 30–40%.- Dunkelflaute explained: How a blocking high-pressure system causes a wind drought, and why the longest recent German event ran nine days in early November 2024.- El Niño and energy markets: Why a milder autumn means lower heating demand and gives traders reason to sell Q4 gas.- AI weather models vs traditional models: why AI is pulling ahead at the 10–20 day horizon while traditional models stay sharper on fine-scale detail.- Heatwaves and nuclear power: How 40°C heat in France and low river levels force nuclear curtailment and Rhine freight limits, echoing 2022.Want to see how weather is moving European power and gas prices right now? Ask Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst: Free sign up: https://modoenergy.com/sign-up?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=podcast_apps&utm_campaign=metdesk&utm_content=ko_signupRead the companion article hereYou can watch or listen to new episodes every Tuesday. Transmission is a Modo Energy production. Your host is Ed Porter - Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy.Chapters0:00 - How weather forecasting drives energy markets1:01 - What everyone gets wrong about weather forecasting1:26 - Why forecast accuracy changes with the time horizon4:03 - Saharan dust and solar power generation6:02 - How weather varies over short distances7:11 - Dunkelflaute explained: wind drought conditions8:20 - German wind power and the nine-day wind drought11:08 - Teleconnections: El Nino, ENSO and the MJO12:54 - Record El Nino forecast and what it means17:30 - Trading El Nino: gas, hydro and Alpine snow17:56 - Why traders go short Q4 gas18:58 - ECMWF data and ensemble forecasting19:35 - How weather ensembles work: 151 members21:39 - AI weather models vs traditional forecasting23:25 - Are weather forecasts getting more accurate?26:17 - Climate change and weather forecasting27:50 - French heatwaves and nuclear power curtailment31:10 - Low Rhine levels and freight restrictions33:11 - The polar vortex and sudden stratospheric warming36:15 - The Beast from the East explained

Two thirds of industrial energy demand is heat, not electricity, and most of it still runs on gas. Thermal storage converts cheap electricity into heat, stores it in concrete, and dispatches it when the factory needs it, undercutting the gas bill even though gas is cheaper per unit on average. Alex Robertson, CEO of ENERGYNEST, joins Ed Porter to explain how a thermal battery works, why it competes with lithium-ion on cost, and why grid connections - not the technology - are the real constraint on industrial decarbonisation.They cover:- Why thermal storage functions like a battery on the energy markets but stores heat one-way in optimised concrete.- The medium-temperature "frying, drying and applying" range (roughly 150 to 300C) that sits above heat pumps and below cement and steel.- How decoupling thermal demand from the electricity price typically can cut the gas bill by around 50%.- Why a 20-foot-container module stores about two megawatt hours, stacks three high, and loses only around 2% of capacity per day.- Why a flexible, interruptible asset is exactly what congested grids need - and why Germany still lacks the flexible connection framework the Netherlands is rolling out.Ask Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst, any question from this conversation: https://modoenergy.com/sign-up?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=podcast_apps&utm_campaign=Alex Robertson&utm_content=ko_signupRead the companion article: https://modoenergy.com/transmission-podcast/80ce6824-59a1-495b-9e94-0a38bdb9572e?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=podcast_apps&utm_campaign=Alex Robertson&utm_content=article_pageModo Energy's solar and battery forecasts are live at modo.energy.You can watch or listen to new episodes every Tuesday. Transmission is a Modo Energy production. Your host is Ed Porter - Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy.Chapters 0:00 - Introduction0:11 - Industrial heat demand and the gas problem1:13 - One thing everyone gets wrong about thermal storage3:14 - How the concrete thermal battery works4:08 - Medium temperature heat and the customer profile6:56 - Why gas boilers still dominate German industry7:52 - Using storage to beat the gas price10:09 - Concrete versus lithium-ion: cost and supply chain13:10 - Degradation and the 25-year thermal capacity16:02 - Scaling up: module size and storage capacity16:40 - Daily cycling and storage duration economics19:50 - Seasonal variation and running gas in winter23:33 - Cost, savings and the five-year payback24:36 - The ideal customer and the grid connection test25:46 - Data centres, demand queues and grid congestion28:02 - Flexible connection agreements and the system design gap30:10 - Grid utilisation versus grid buildout33:34 - Heat as a service and unlocking investment36:04 - A contrarian view on industrial decarbonisationMusic licensed via Artlist.

Two thirds of industrial energy demand is heat, not electricity, and most of it still runs on gas. Thermal storage converts cheap electricity into heat, stores it in concrete, and dispatches it when the factory needs it, undercutting the gas bill even though gas is cheaper per unit on average. Alex Robertson, CEO of ENERGYNEST, joins Ed Porter to explain how a thermal battery works, why it competes with lithium-ion on cost, and why grid connections - not the technology - are the real constraint on industrial decarbonisation.They cover:- Why thermal storage functions like a battery on the energy markets but stores heat one-way in optimised concrete.- The medium-temperature "frying, drying and applying" range (roughly 150 to 300C) that sits above heat pumps and below cement and steel.- How decoupling thermal demand from the electricity price typically can cut the gas bill by around 50%.- Why a 20-foot-container module stores about two megawatt hours, stacks three high, and loses only around 2% of capacity per day.- Why a flexible, interruptible asset is exactly what congested grids need - and why Germany still lacks the flexible connection framework the Netherlands is rolling out.Ask Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst, any question from this conversation: https://modoenergy.com/sign-up?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=podcast_apps&utm_campaign=Alex Robertson&utm_content=ko_signupRead the companion article: https://modoenergy.com/transmission-podcast/80ce6824-59a1-495b-9e94-0a38bdb9572e?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=podcast_apps&utm_campaign=Alex Robertson&utm_content=article_pageModo Energy's solar and battery forecasts are live at modo.energy.You can watch or listen to new episodes every Tuesday. Transmission is a Modo Energy production. Your host is Ed Porter - Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy.Chapters 0:00 - Introduction0:11 - Industrial heat demand and the gas problem1:13 - One thing everyone gets wrong about thermal storage3:14 - How the concrete thermal battery works4:08 - Medium temperature heat and the customer profile6:56 - Why gas boilers still dominate German industry7:52 - Using storage to beat the gas price10:09 - Concrete versus lithium-ion: cost and supply chain13:10 - Degradation and the 25-year thermal capacity16:02 - Scaling up: module size and storage capacity16:40 - Daily cycling and storage duration economics19:50 - Seasonal variation and running gas in winter23:33 - Cost, savings and the five-year payback24:36 - The ideal customer and the grid connection test25:46 - Data centres, demand queues and grid congestion28:02 - Flexible connection agreements and the system design gap30:10 - Grid utilisation versus grid buildout33:34 - Heat as a service and unlocking investment36:04 - A contrarian view on industrial decarbonisationMusic licensed via Artlist.

Germany's battery storage market is booming - but a saturation crunch is coming, and most investors aren't ready for it. The question is which revenue streams hold up, and which collapse the way they did in GB, Texas, and Australia.Ed sits down with Till Stehr, German Research Analyst, and Cosima from the Advisory Services Team at Modo Energy, to map the real structural drivers, and risks, behind German BESS returns.They cover: Why German battery saturation is closer than the market thinks - FCR is already saturated, with aFRR close behind.• Why German battery revenues near €200,000/MW/year for a two-hour system are more about timing than structure.• What makes Germany's intraday market the most liquid in Europe and the €1,000+/MWh spikes batteries feed on.• How flexible connection agreements are quietly reshaping returns, from ramp rates to export caps.• What German grid fees look like after the 2029 exemption and why dynamic fees are locational pricing through the back door.Got a question about the German BESS market? Ask Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst: https://modoenergy.com/sign-up?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=youtube&utm_campaign=till_cosima&utm_content=ko_signupChapters:00:00 – An Introduction tGermany's Battery Storage Market 00:50 – What Investors Get Wrong About Germany02:33 – Why Ancillary Services Saturate Fast03:47 – German Battery Revenues: €200k per MW05:24 – Structural Value: Solar and Intraday Trading06:30 – Redispatch Costs and Locational Pricing08:04 – FCR and aFRR Explained09:37 – Battery Saturation and the Overbuilt Ratio14:08 – Europe's Most Liquid Intraday Market18:50 – Battery Interconnection: Friend or Foe?21:52 – Negative Power Prices in Germany25:36 – Flexible Connection Agreements Explained32:19 – Battery Inertia and Grid-Forming Inverters35:53 – German Grid Fees: What's Announced40:37 – Contrarian Views: DSOs and Locational Pricing

Germany's battery storage market is booming - but a saturation crunch is coming, and most investors aren't ready for it. The question is which revenue streams hold up, and which collapse the way they did in GB, Texas, and Australia.Ed sits down with Till Stehr, German Research Analyst, and Cosima from the Advisory Services Team at Modo Energy, to map the real structural drivers, and risks, behind German BESS returns.They cover: Why German battery saturation is closer than the market thinks - FCR is already saturated, with aFRR close behind.• Why German battery revenues near €200,000/MW/year for a two-hour system are more about timing than structure.• What makes Germany's intraday market the most liquid in Europe and the €1,000+/MWh spikes batteries feed on.• How flexible connection agreements are quietly reshaping returns, from ramp rates to export caps.• What German grid fees look like after the 2029 exemption and why dynamic fees are locational pricing through the back door.Got a question about the German BESS market? Ask Ko, Modo Energy's AI analyst: https://modoenergy.com/sign-up?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=youtube&utm_campaign=till_cosima&utm_content=ko_signupChapters:00:00 – An Introduction tGermany's Battery Storage Market 00:50 – What Investors Get Wrong About Germany02:33 – Why Ancillary Services Saturate Fast03:47 – German Battery Revenues: €200k per MW05:24 – Structural Value: Solar and Intraday Trading06:30 – Redispatch Costs and Locational Pricing08:04 – FCR and aFRR Explained09:37 – Battery Saturation and the Overbuilt Ratio14:08 – Europe's Most Liquid Intraday Market18:50 – Battery Interconnection: Friend or Foe?21:52 – Negative Power Prices in Germany25:36 – Flexible Connection Agreements Explained32:19 – Battery Inertia and Grid-Forming Inverters35:53 – German Grid Fees: What's Announced40:37 – Contrarian Views: DSOs and Locational Pricing

Most battery revenue projections stop at the day-ahead auction. But the optimisers running multi-gigawatt BESS portfolios argue that's where the money is being left on the table - re-trading a battery through intraday, balancing, and ancillary services can add 50% or more to revenue, and battery offtake structures like floors, tolls, and swaps only make sense once you understand how that value actually gets captured.In this episode of Transmission, Ed Porter sits down with Brian Lonn, Head of UK Flexibility at Statkraft, to break down how a multi-gigawatt battery optimisation desk actually trades batteries and the offtake structures it offers on top.They cover:How battery re-trading works in practice.How Statkraft scaled its GB flex portfolio from 22MW of intraday-active battery volume to ~4.5GW under contract and why this scale is the precondition for offering offtake at all.Why the battery optimisation market could consolidate and what that means for smaller optimisers and asset owners.How battery floors, tolls, and day-ahead swaps differ in tenor and purpose, with a working £/MW ballpark for each on a 2-hour battery.Brian's contrarian view on Clean Power 2030: why the real question for the GB power system is megawatt-hours, not megawatts.Want sharper answers on battery storage markets? Ko is Modo Energy's AI analyst, built on our underlying data and research. Ask Ko anything: https://modoenergy.com/sign-up?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=youtube&utm_campaign=brian_lonn&utm_content=ko_signupRead the companion article: [COMPANION ARTICLE URL — TBC]You can watch or listen to new episodes every Tuesday. Transmission is a Modo Energy production. Your host is Ed Porter - Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy.00:00 Introduction01:06 What everyone gets wrong about battery asset optimisation05:14 Statkraft's GB flex portfolio — scaling to 4.5GW07:24 Inside a battery trading desk — the operational reality10:02 Re-trading explained — and the £100 to £150 worked example16:49 How algorithmic intraday battery trading has evolved19:50 Re-trading uplift — 50%+ over day-ahead-only battery revenue22:14 The balancing mechanism and NESO's role in battery dispatch29:58 Battery offtake structures — floors, tolls, and day-ahead swaps37:35 Co-location — solar and battery storage in the GB market45:36 How to break into battery asset optimisation and energy trading49:04 Brian's contrarian view — megawatts vs megawatt-hours50:03 Why battery augmentation matters for Clean Power 2030Music licensed via Artlist.

Most battery revenue projections stop at the day-ahead auction. But the optimisers running multi-gigawatt BESS portfolios argue that's where the money is being left on the table - re-trading a battery through intraday, balancing, and ancillary services can add 50% or more to revenue, and battery offtake structures like floors, tolls, and swaps only make sense once you understand how that value actually gets captured.In this episode of Transmission, Ed Porter sits down with Brian Lonn, Head of UK Flexibility at Statkraft, to break down how a multi-gigawatt battery optimisation desk actually trades batteries and the offtake structures it offers on top.They cover:How battery re-trading works in practice.How Statkraft scaled its GB flex portfolio from 22MW of intraday-active battery volume to ~4.5GW under contract and why this scale is the precondition for offering offtake at all.Why the battery optimisation market could consolidate and what that means for smaller optimisers and asset owners.How battery floors, tolls, and day-ahead swaps differ in tenor and purpose, with a working £/MW ballpark for each on a 2-hour battery.Brian's contrarian view on Clean Power 2030: why the real question for the GB power system is megawatt-hours, not megawatts.Want sharper answers on battery storage markets? Ko is Modo Energy's AI analyst, built on our underlying data and research. Ask Ko anything: https://modoenergy.com/sign-up?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=youtube&utm_campaign=brian_lonn&utm_content=ko_signupRead the companion article: [COMPANION ARTICLE URL — TBC]You can watch or listen to new episodes every Tuesday. Transmission is a Modo Energy production. Your host is Ed Porter - Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy.00:00 Introduction01:06 What everyone gets wrong about battery asset optimisation05:14 Statkraft's GB flex portfolio — scaling to 4.5GW07:24 Inside a battery trading desk — the operational reality10:02 Re-trading explained — and the £100 to £150 worked example16:49 How algorithmic intraday battery trading has evolved19:50 Re-trading uplift — 50%+ over day-ahead-only battery revenue22:14 The balancing mechanism and NESO's role in battery dispatch29:58 Battery offtake structures — floors, tolls, and day-ahead swaps37:35 Co-location — solar and battery storage in the GB market45:36 How to break into battery asset optimisation and energy trading49:04 Brian's contrarian view — megawatts vs megawatt-hours50:03 Why battery augmentation matters for Clean Power 2030Music licensed via Artlist.

The scope of the National Energy System Operator - or NESO - has expanded from running the electricity system to planning Britain's whole energy system across electricity, gas and hydrogen, all while delivering connections reform and steering toward Clean Power 2030. That transformation is reshaping everything from how Britain plans its grid 20 years out to how it keeps the lights on tonight. Ed Porter is joined by Kayte O'Neill, Chief Operating Officer at the National Energy System Operator (NESO), for a wide-ranging conversation on the biggest changes in the GB power market: grid connections reform, the battery storage queue, zero-carbon grid operation, and the next wave of electricity market design.They cover:Connections reform and the UK grid queue — how NESO has cut the 800GW queue down to a deliverable pipeline and what Gate 2 means for developers over the next 12 months.The battery storage connections queue and how NESO is thinking about attrition, bay sharing and co-location.Zero-carbon operation of the GB grid and why gas plants still run on windy, sunny days (stability services, inertia, grid-forming inverters)NESO's expanded whole-system role - strategic planning across electricity, gas and hydrogen, and the Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP)Reformed National Pricing, data centre demand connections, AI in the control room, and the £40bn/year investment unlock at stake.Ask Ko, Modo Energy's AI energy analyst, your questions on UK grid operations and BESS markets: Sign up hereTranscript available hereHosted by Ed Porter, Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy.Chapters:00:00 - Intro: what people get wrong about NESO04:15 - NESO's new role in gas security of supply05:49 - The summer outlook and GB's low-demand operability problem07:48 - Why gas still runs on the GB grid on windy, sunny days09:49 - Stability services and the path to zero-carbon grid operation11:03 - The 97.7% zero-carbon record on 1 April 202512:40 - Stability pathfinders, inertia markets and grid-forming inverters17:04 - The winter challenge: gigawatts vs terawatt-hours21:33 - Connections reform: from 800GW to a deliverable grid23:54 - What connections reform means for developers next26:01 - The skilled-labour bottleneck behind grid build-out30:32 - Battery queue attrition and the BESS oversupply problem33:51 - The Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP)38:59 - Co-location and bay sharing: the unfinished reform44:35 - Reformed National Pricing and GB electricity market reform49:13 - Data, digital and AI in the NESO control room51:44 - The 2026 Operability Strategy Report and Markets Roadmap52:24 - A contrarian case for connections reformMusic licensed via Artlist.

The scope of the National Energy System Operator - or NESO - has expanded from running the electricity system to planning Britain's whole energy system across electricity, gas and hydrogen, all while delivering connections reform and steering toward Clean Power 2030. That transformation is reshaping everything from how Britain plans its grid 20 years out to how it keeps the lights on tonight. Ed Porter is joined by Kayte O'Neill, Chief Operating Officer at the National Energy System Operator (NESO), for a wide-ranging conversation on the biggest changes in the GB power market: grid connections reform, the battery storage queue, zero-carbon grid operation, and the next wave of electricity market design.They cover:Connections reform and the UK grid queue — how NESO has cut the 800GW queue down to a deliverable pipeline and what Gate 2 means for developers over the next 12 months.The battery storage connections queue and how NESO is thinking about attrition, bay sharing and co-location.Zero-carbon operation of the GB grid and why gas plants still run on windy, sunny days (stability services, inertia, grid-forming inverters)NESO's expanded whole-system role - strategic planning across electricity, gas and hydrogen, and the Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP)Reformed National Pricing, data centre demand connections, AI in the control room, and the £40bn/year investment unlock at stake.Ask Ko, Modo Energy's AI energy analyst, your questions on UK grid operations and BESS markets: Sign up hereTranscript available hereHosted by Ed Porter, Director EMEA & APAC at Modo Energy.Chapters:00:00 - Intro: what people get wrong about NESO04:15 - NESO's new role in gas security of supply05:49 - The summer outlook and GB's low-demand operability problem07:48 - Why gas still runs on the GB grid on windy, sunny days09:49 - Stability services and the path to zero-carbon grid operation11:03 - The 97.7% zero-carbon record on 1 April 202512:40 - Stability pathfinders, inertia markets and grid-forming inverters17:04 - The winter challenge: gigawatts vs terawatt-hours21:33 - Connections reform: from 800GW to a deliverable grid23:54 - What connections reform means for developers next26:01 - The skilled-labour bottleneck behind grid build-out30:32 - Battery queue attrition and the BESS oversupply problem33:51 - The Strategic Spatial Energy Plan (SSEP)38:59 - Co-location and bay sharing: the unfinished reform44:35 - Reformed National Pricing and GB electricity market reform49:13 - Data, digital and AI in the NESO control room51:44 - The 2026 Operability Strategy Report and Markets Roadmap52:24 - A contrarian case for connections reformMusic licensed via Artlist.