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- [00:00]
A
Foreign. I'm Dan Runcy. Welcome to Trap Ital, where today we're going to talk about a condition, an illness, if you will. An illness that is infecting the artists who might be biting off more than they can chew when they're going on their tours. And that is called Blue Dot Fever, a term that I can't take credit for. Gotta give credit to page Six. But this is a phrase that people are using for the Ticketmaster seat maps that are full of unsold seats, which is a real reason why certain artists are canceling their tours. So if they're telling you that, oh, we have to cancel this tour or cancel these concerts because we haven't been feeling well, maybe they caught a case of Blue Dot Fever. You've seen the screenshots, you've seen the cancelled dates, and you may have seen some of the explanations that we're talking about. Depending on who you talk to, you'll hear different reasons why. Some say that ticket prices are too high. Others say that fans are tapped out and that the concert business is finally getting exposed. But personally, I don't think it's that simple, because the live music business is booming. Their record revenues year after year, quarter after quarter, and stadium tours are still selling and arena tours are still selling, and there are fans that are still paying when the artist, the price, the room and the moment that they want to see all line up. Key word there. The ones that they want to see. I think the real issue might be more specific. There are some artists that are being built for a demand, when the artist or act may only have A or B demand at best. And that gap matters. Awareness is not demand. Nostalgia is not demand. Monthly listeners is not demand. Demand is whether there are enough people in enough cities that have the urgency to act now and pay the actual price to fill actual room or amphitheater, a ballroom, a venue, you name it. Two years ago on Trapital, I had a conversation with CAA's Akeen Alou. He's a music touring agent there, and we did an episode together called the Art and Science of Sold Out Arena Tours. And now with Blue Dot Fever becoming part of the discussion, it was a great time to bring him back on. We talk about what's really happening in live music. How artists, teams, managers, promoters and others decide what when they're ready for the bigger rooms and where they all fit in. And what separates a calculated risk from an overreach. I hope you enjoy this one as much as we did. Here's my talk with Akeem this episode of Trapital is presented by Symphonic, which recently launched next, their new initiative focused on catalog acquisitions, royalty advances and indie artist financing. As the needs of independent artists and labels evolve, so does Symphonic. With Next, they're creating new pathways to capital and strategic partnerships, giving their clients the flexibility to grow, invest and scale on their terms. According to Symphonix CEO Jose Brea, Next is designed to be flexible across a wide range of opportunities, typically supporting transactions from catalogs generating around $25,000 in the last 12 months of earnings, up to larger multimillion dollar acquisitions depending on the opportunity. To learn more, click the link in our show notes to read more about next. All right, we are here with Akeen Alew from caa. So Akeem, we'd love you to set the record straight. You're on the ground. What's going on with this Blue Dot Fever?
- [03:35]
B
It's a funny catchy name for something I think is pretty common in the live business and I think encapsulates some changes that I don't think are unprecedented. In the last few months we've seen record high gas prices, the cost of living has gone up, wages have stagnated. I think a lot of those things are coming to bear and the live industry is affected by it. Some of the tours that are coming down, I think are impacted by the fact that folks have seen the artist before. I think in some instances the demand just isn't there. But I don't think that cancellations are as uncommon as we might think. In fact, I think today fans just have a little bit more insight into the business. You know, our armchair executives in a lot of ways. And social media allows people to share a lot of what's going on in real time and create these news stories that then pick up and trend across our timelines.
- [04:38]
A
You're a bit more generous than I was with regards to high prices and cost and things like that, because I initially leaned purely towards the things you mentioned. The artists themselves. When was the last time that they went on tour? Post Malone is someone that comes to mind. He clearly has proven himself as a stadium artist, but he just went on tour. Are we going to do that again? So I think that one's a bit unique and now it's just the latest wave of frankly a bit of schadenfreude of people seeing the failures or the lack of success with certain tours from household name artists and then that looping up into people having just broader issues about the live entertainment business, music specifically, and trying to have a scapegoat if you will, for a problem that may not really be a problem, as opposed to something that's specific with a few particular artists.
- [05:29]
B
Correct. You know, I think if you look at the business from a macro perspective, the live business is as healthy as it's ever been. Tours are setting record grosses. Live Nation has the largest amount of stadium inventory in stadiums probably that they've ever had. I just think consumers, because of all the other things that are going on on a macroeconomic level, have to be more selective about what they will and won't see how they're spending their money. I think that leads to some of what we're seeing. To your point, every year we see cancellations. I think this is just another example of that this year.
- [06:04]
A
And I think with some of these, that's where it does become specific. Because for instance, I was sitting down with agents a couple weeks ago, not you, to be clear, but others that were talking about an artist that is a household name that we all know and being like, oh, can I add a third show in a city that was a mid tier city. And frankly, this is an artist that three years ago I didn't even think could do venues of this size. But because of just how high the demand is, people are pushing artists that are doing arenas much sooner. They're doing stadiums or finding unique packages. And with that, you're going to hit record revenues, but you're also going to have some swings that miss.
- [06:40]
B
But yeah, I would, I would still argue that overall, the business is in a. Is in a really healthy place. If you saw Olivia Rodrigo's tour go up, she just added several dates after her initial announce. Usher and Chris Brown is absolutely massive. They're adding additional nights in multiple cities. Part of it too is just about making sure that you're offering fans unique value with every package you're putting out on the road. Something that feels like it cannot be missed, even on the club level, that's something we think about. If the average cost of a ticket now has gone up, how are we making sure that folks are still extracting value from the ticket price? You've still got to pay for parking, you've got to pay for merch, you've got to pay for all these additional items. So a night out at a show, it's not just the cost of a ticket, it's all these other things you have to take into consideration. So you just got to make sure that what you're putting out on the road is going to satiate that fan.
- [07:34]
A
Right. The fan Demand may still be high, but fans also have other considerations that they still need to package and account for. And I know with you being in the role of the agent here, there are a number of promoters that you work with and by extension, a lot of the artists that you work with and their managers as well. You tend to be a bit more conservative in terms of what you're putting out there, in terms of the packages or how aggressive you might be. But in this market, the way that it is right now, do you feel like you have to put your foot on the gas a little bit more than may feel comfortable to be like, okay, let's see how far we can go with this one. Let's see if we can upgrade this artist to this size venue or add another show.
- [08:14]
B
It's an interesting question. I think if you're experiencing success in previous cycles, I think it almost behooves you to take a bigger swing, you know, but there's other ways to still get paid without putting the artists at risk. You've seen a lot of residency style models pop up, whether that's for reasons due to cost or reasons due to unsure demand. Right. Like it's cheaper to sit in one place than it is to do 30 cities. Or if you're unsure if an artist can do 25 cities, you're sitting down in 10 of the best cities and hoping that the moment spreads on social media to make it feel like it was a global tour. That's where those types of conversations come into play. I like to err on the side of being conservative just because I've always felt like, scarcity, whether it's in number of tickets or how often you're on the road, helps sort of like propel you up that ladder from club to arena level. Sometimes you got to take the swing.
- [09:09]
A
Do you find yourself then in decisions where you have to decide, okay, do we do two or three nights at Radio City or do we just go for Madison Square Garden? And if that's the case, like, how do you decide at that point? Because even though you might be, you know, a bit more conservative in that regard, it could depend on the promoter that you're working with.
- [09:28]
B
Yeah, I mean, ultimately look like, I think as the agent, we're going to try to lead that strategy, but obviously take different points of view into consideration. You know, whether or not you're taking the three Radio City swing or the MSG swing has a lot to do with how much time you have between the release of new music and your tour. If I have Time to see how my music is resonating before I pull the trigger. I can better calculate which rooms to go into. If my goal is to push my ticket price so that my fan is used to paying for higher tickets, I might go for a smaller room on a higher ticket. So I've trained my fan to be ready to experience a Madison Square Garden show where I might need to scale tickets up a little bit. You know, if my album is different than previous output and lends itself a different configuration, or I feel like I may have lost my fan a bit, I might go into Radio City instead of Madison Square Garden. Just as a way to protect the artists. Right. If I'm not certain it's a slam dunk. I'll start with one Radio City and add the additional as the demand warrants. We're trying to lead that strategy, but obviously taking like, our promoter partners into consideration alongside our managers who are really going to be driving the strategy with the artist.
- [10:47]
A
And when you're looking at that, is there particular types of data that you're seeing that helps you make that decision? Like, when you're trying to understand, okay, what the fan behavior is most likely to be like, Is there particular things based on past ticket sales or. Or streaming data or socials? Like, how do you weight the factors that you're using to make that decision?
- [11:09]
B
Yeah, you know what's interesting is if you've had a successful first leg and you blew out your tour sold out immediately, or you were looking at ticket prices on the secondary and tickets were going for double when you went on general on sale, you can see how many people you have in queue to purchase tickets. And if my queue is way bigger than any of the rooms that I'm holding, I know that I've got excess demand there. And sometimes that's driving my strategy on the next tour. Secondary is a great metric. The size of the queue is a great metric. Streaming data is great. But it's less of a hard science than I would say past ticket history is. And then the speed of a sellout is always a great indicator of whether or not there's more meat on the bone there. I wonder if some of these tours that are back on the road, if folks had super successful first runs and just stumbled into a really tough economic time period.
- [12:02]
A
Let's take a break. For our chart metric stat of the week. One of the acts that we discussed on this episode that had a case of the quote unquote blue dot feverish are the Pussycat Dolls. The Pussycat Dolls. A 2000 girls group. There are a lot of acts right now from the 2000s that are going on very successful arena tours in stadiums. The Pussycat Dolls also have nearly 17 million monthly listeners on Spotify. Their lead singer, Nicole Scherzinger recently won a Tony Award for her performance during Sunset Boulevard. So I understand why on paper, people thought that this could be a good way to tap into the nostalgic fan base of the Pussycat Dolls. But again, all of those factors don't necessarily align with what drives tickets for a tour, especially a nationwide arena tour, especially if all the members of the Pussycat Dolls aren't part of this tour. Again, it just goes to show that there are a number of factors that go into a tour. And nostalgia and streams can only bring you so far. Let's get back to the episode, the one that always sticks out to me that makes me wonder, how do they do this? Is the artists that make the leap and that leap happens before they've went on tour recently or they've done any type of live performance. I look at someone like Olivia Dean, where she's now doing arena shows and her arena tour is largely based on a couple a few singles from her most recent album. She had been making music for years, of course, but this past 18 months really propelled her to a new level. How do you make that type of decision when you really only have the streaming data, the virality? And sure, this person may have been in the game for 10 years, but it's really this 12 to 18 month period where they're making this jump and boom, now they want to go on tour.
- [13:50]
B
Yeah. So Olivia Dean is a client here and her agent tells this story. That whole team watched what happened in Europe before they put up the North America dates. And when she was doing the theaters in North America, the singles were happening, so they were feeling it. Right. But in Europe the on sales were massive and they heard about what was in the queue and they were already routing this year's arena tour, but they were holding for potential seconds and third nights and I think fourth nights in some places. And when the on sale was as successful as it was in Europe, they knew that they had enough juice to sort of make the jump in North America. So they got a bit of a sneak peek before they really pulled the trigger. And that was great because you've got two offices working in collaboration across territories to try to build like one cohesive global strategy, which is really great.
- [14:42]
A
And I think a similar version of that is how artists can use festival appearances and shows and see how well an artist does on a particular festival circuit. Because I get the impression. Now, you mentioned Olivia Rodrigo earlier. She hasn't done a stadium tour yet, at least nationwide in the United States, but she's done the arenas. I think I just saw that she had an 11th show that they just added for O2 in London. And she's already headlined major music festivals in the US and others. So I have to assume that that is a leap. So can you tell me about that strategy? Yeah.
- [15:16]
B
So, I mean, like, Harry Styles is kind of the same thing. I don't know that festivals are an indication of your ability to go into stadiums from arenas. The reason why a lot of artists don't always make that jump right away is, you know, a stadium shows a whole different undertaking. The expenses incurred, needing to have other stadium dates back to back to bring expenses down, the type of production necessary, even the fan experience isn't the best. Right. Most people don't even like going to arenas to see concerts. And I think Olivia is still in that part of her career where she's growing. And I don't know that she needs to make the stadium move right away. For someone like Harry, it's probably less expensive to go into stadiums, and it was a deliberate move to do those types of rooms versus moving to the stadiums.
- [16:09]
A
But from a cost perspective, is there a certain number of shows at an arena level where the costs do start to equal out? When you think about all the expansion expenses related to it, Drake is someone that makes me think of this, where with one of his last tours, if he's doing four nights at MSG and four nights at Barclays, that's eight shows. Is that really cheaper than two nights at MetLife?
- [16:33]
B
Drake probably still nets more money in an arena across four days than he does in a stadium across two. Because even across four days, you can probably make deals on what you would pay to rent that room. And there's other cost savings you might have over the course of four days versus cost savings across two days and higher expenses in general. Right. If you're going from club to theater level, if you're trying to play multiple nights in Radio City, but you can do the same number of tickets in T5, you stand to net more money doing T5 just because radio City is so expensive to play in, certain rooms are actually just more cost prohibitive. Even if there are cost savings by doing multiple. Like doing four is going to cost you less than doing two in that stadium.
- [17:24]
A
And I think especially when you get to New York, things Can be a bit specific because some specific venues just have so much allure and prestige about them, their price difference may not work out the same way economically.
- [17:35]
B
Correct. And I would also say the economics are going to be the same regardless of the city. Right. Just this idea that a stadium inherently is going to be a lot more expensive. Whether it's in the cost of bringing in the right types of production, what it costs to utilize that room versus the cost of an arena, it's going to be different.
- [17:53]
A
The one place where I'm curious to get your thoughts on is we talked a lot about the arena and the stadium level, but how are things going at that club level at some of those smaller venues? Because I know that the blue dot fever may not capture as much attention at that level, just given that the artist may be less of a huge household name or there's not an arena full of dots. But do you feel like the patterns are just as similar at that level?
- [18:20]
B
Yeah, I think the patterns are definitely similar. People have a lot of options and everything is expensive. So you are really trying to sell the consumer on why they should part hard earned money and time to come and spend two or three hours with you in some place outside of the home.
- [18:42]
A
Another symptom that I was considering was the ego related to an artist and how that may factor in. For instance, if there is an artist that is further along in their career and they see Olivia Dean doing an arena show, do they then feel like, okay, well this artist just broke out and they won best new artist. I won best new artist how many ever years ago? Why can't I go do an arena tour now? I sold out the last one. Why can't we level up? Are there egos that you often have to manage sometimes where even if that may be true, you still don't want to have them overextend themselves?
- [19:20]
B
Yeah, that's 100% true. I think that's when you need to make sure that there's trust in your relationship with the artist, team with the artists, so that you can have real conversations, that you've got real collaborators at the table with you that can also speak reason to the different parties when it's necessary. The hope is that we're all in this to make a career out of it. Right. So it's less about trying to beat anybody in any individual moment and just making sure we're optimizing for longevity.
- [19:52]
A
And the thing I'm eager to see is does this fever extend to other areas, at least in terms of how people Talk about it, right? I could look at a Miami Marlins game and look at the empty seats in that arena and be like, oh, look at Blue Dot fever at this July 25th baseball game when it's 110 degrees outside. Right? So I'm interested to see does this term catch on or is this just going to be a live music thing?
- [20:14]
B
One of my colleagues mentioned that part of this Blue Dot Fever is a push from like scalpers and the secondary market on micro influencers to talk about these things, to push for cancellation and cancellations and refunds so that they get their money back. Listen, I don't know that it makes its way to some of these other areas because I don't know that scalping exists in the same way there. So assuming this is true, the incentive behind this in particular would be for the people in the secondary to get some of their money back. Sports events have been not selling out for years, right? And no one's ever talked about Blue Dot Fever at a Wizards game or whatever. Like it's par for the course. So I don't know why the music world is under a microscope with this phenomenon, but it is interesting.
- [20:56]
A
It also wouldn't surprise me just knowing how much lobbying effort the secondary markets have put into just maintaining their existence and the ability to do what they do. So I would have put it past anyone. One thing I want to talk a bit more about is packaging. You and I talked about that last time and you talked about as well with Usher and Chris Brown and even the branding they did with it, right? The R and B tour, Raymond and Brown tour. And on the surface, yes, Chris Brown just did a 20th anniversary of Run it stadium tour last year. Usher just had his post super bowl concert as well. So they were already doing this. But it feels like the packaging makes sense because this is two artists that people were like, oh yes, what if they did A versus like who's better? There's been like barbershop debates about this for two decades now, right?
- [21:42]
B
Yeah, yeah, for two decades. 100%. When we talk about putting stuff on the road, you have to appeal to people in that way. Like, I think it's really about trying to create something that jumps off a poster. I've said it before, I think people want to go and see things that they know they can't miss. And this is one of those tours that literally folks have been talking about since Chris put out his self titled project. And so it's cool to see this moment play out in real life on the road. And you're seeing the financial like confirmation that that people want to go and see it.
- [22:16]
A
If Usher Chris Brown is the North Star of okay, yes, this is how it looks like when it works the best. Are there examples or trends that you've seen where times it doesn't work out? What are the common reasons why? Specifically with packaging, I would tell you
- [22:32]
B
that I think the instances where it doesn't work are where the agent or the manager or the team that's putting the package together maybe tries to be a little bit too esoteric in the groups they put together. Right. I would tell you that the most successful ones are different, but they are not too different. Where people scratch their heads, you're still catering to your core, but not in a way that feels strange. It's a little less obvious, but it shouldn't feel like it's a stretch, if that makes sense.
- [23:05]
A
It gets back to this aspect of trying to be aggressive, trying to make something work because you want to feed the demand that you expect to be there, but there's just not enough there for it to click.
- [23:15]
B
For packaging to be successful, the package has to make sense to the core audience. They're playing to the core, but they can draw slightly from the fringes without feeling like the fringe is the center.
- [23:28]
A
Another aspect of touring, I think has gotten even more and more attention are the ancillary revenue streams that are popular. Part of it, whether it's merchandise sales or sponsorships more broadly for the venue or business, has that played a role more so in your particular job? I know that your job is primarily focused on ticket sales, venues, artist relationships, but I feel like these other streams do seem to be growing in importance more than ever.
- [23:53]
B
Yes, in the amps. It's the reason why artists can get stronger guarantees. That plays out when artists think about giving their hard ticket business to festivals versus playing their own shows in market. If you're an artist who does incredible merch sales, think somebody like a Playboi Carti or Ken Carson think twice about going and playing some of these festivals because they can walk away with a little bit more money when they do shows on their own. So when we talk about ancillary revenues, that's kind of how it plays itself out on the artist side and then also on the promoter side.
- [24:28]
A
Do the economics work out similarly for you all on the agent side for both ticket sales and for merchandise or ancillary revenue sales?
- [24:36]
B
I mean, we're not participating in ancillary revenue, we're not participating in merch. Our revenue is really generated from Ticket sales, whether that's GA tickets or platinum ticketing or VIP ticketing, that's sort of where we're earning our money.
- [24:52]
A
It also seems like there's been a broader push, whether it's at festivals or with some of these arena and stadium shows for more VIP experiences or just ways to be able to cater to that top end of the market. Has that been a growing factor for you too?
- [25:09]
B
Yeah, I think that trend is resonating across industries. Right. Like I was reading something about Delta360 the other day and how even as an airline they're offering their top consumers additional perks. Folks, talk about a K shaped economy where the highest net worth individuals or the wealthiest individuals in our economy are continuing to grow their wealth and continuing to spend and have discretionary income. And I think that segment of consumers are being catered to by different businesses and because they're spending money. So I think it's not surprising that you would see promoters also try to cash in on the same trends 100%
- [25:53]
A
since we're talking so much about supply, demand and what we expect on those ones that haven't quite gotten where you thought that they could have. What have been the reasons why?
- [26:03]
B
Yeah, so I think it's a couple of things. Sometimes the artist is on the road too early. They haven't fully created any urgency for fans to come and see them live. Maybe a song isn't quite catching. Maybe they haven't figured out how to connect with their fans on social yet. Some of it too is just my own expectations around things blowing out versus things following a more typical sales pattern. Things might sell out, day of show, a week of show, which again is a great problem to have, but a different outcome than a show blowing out at the on sale. That's probably my own recognition or dealings.
- [26:43]
A
That makes sense. Well, Akeen, I appreciate you coming on. This was fun.
- [26:47]
B
Thanks, Dan.
- [26:51]
A
And that is a wrap. Thank you to Akeem for joining us on this one. Glad we could keep it real. Thank you to our audio and video producers G and Eric for everything that you do to help make Trapital possible. Thank you to Rwanda for everything you do behind the scenes and most importantly, thank you for listening. If there's one person you know that would also enjoy Trapital and get a lot out of this episode about Blue Dot fever and live music trends or any of the conversations that we have, send them a link to the show. Word of mouth is still the best way to grow. And if you have a few minutes, please follow Trapital on wherever you get your podcast if you're not already doing so and leave a comment, leave a review that helps the algorithm do the right thing and make sure that Trapital gets in front of the right people. Thanks again. Talk to you next time.