Five Bold Predictions: Netflix and Spotify, AI-Powered Industry, The Big 3’s Future, and More

Summary

Trapital Podcast Summary

Episode Title: Five Bold Predictions: Netflix and Spotify, AI-Powered Industry, The Big 3’s Future, and More
Host: Dan Runcie
Guest: Tati Sirisano (Midia Research)
Date: November 20, 2025

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Episode Overview

In this special episode recorded live at the Trapital Summit, Dan Runcie and Tati Sirisano tackle listener-prompted bold predictions about the future of music, tech, and media over the next five years. Each prediction sparks a lively discussion that explores the durability of major record labels, the (im)probability of a Netflix-Spotify merger, the persistence (or not) of mass culture, the realities and limits of technology-driven “unprecedented growth,” and the future possibilities enabled by AI in music.

The tone is energetic, insightful, and both optimistic and realistic about where entertainment is headed.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Big 3 Major Labels Will Be “Just Fine”

Timestamps: [03:37] – [05:40]

• Prediction Discussed: Despite industry disruption, major labels (Sony, Warner, UMG) remain secure.
• Tati Sirisano: Acknowledges threats to the traditional model but points out “they’re sitting on a vast treasure trove of catalog” and could become “almost like asset managers.” The question is, do they want to merely maintain, or still drive cultural impact?

  “The question is do they want to be just fine? If not, I think there is more innovation that needs to happen.” [04:18]

• Dan Runcie: Emphasizes catalog ownership as a key moat, referencing new music’s unpredictability and noting that “they also have more money to be able to invest in the other ones… that feels like where this is heading.”
• Tati: “With listenership being as fragmented as it is, having access to legacy songs and artists that everybody knows is only going to grow in value.” [05:29]

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2. Will Netflix & Spotify Merge?

Timestamps: [05:42] – [07:36]

• Prediction Discussed: Speculation that the two streaming giants will merge in the next five years.
• Dan Runcie: Skeptical. “I just don't see Netflix trying to get into the audio business… I just don't see it.” [06:21]
• Tati Sirisano: Argues such a merger would only make sense if mutually beneficial; “It would be more transformative potentially for Spotify than it would be for Netflix... I just don’t see Netflix grabbing at.” [07:06]
• Both note that while all-in-one entertainment has appeal (as seen with Amazon or Apple), audio and video are different enough that synergies aren’t compelling for Netflix.

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3. Return of Mass Culture?

Timestamps: [08:45] – [11:58]

• Prediction Discussed: Within 5-10 years, the fragmented landscape of entertainment will “pendulum back” to shared, mainstream cultural experiences.
• Tati Sirisano: Sees consumer “yearning” for shared moments but doubts infrastructure will revert unless platforms and marketing change. “It’s always for you. It's never like for us… These are things that aren't going away.” [09:10]
• Dan Runcie: Warns against confusing one’s own digital bubble with true mainstream. Global icons vary by region and context—what’s “everywhere” in one circle can be meaningless elsewhere.

  “What we think is mainstream to us, you think is the biggest thing in the world, right? ... But that's just not the case everywhere.” [10:21]

• Tati: Suggests each “bubble” can have its own “mass culture.”
• Notable moment: Comparison of Succession’s cultural footprint versus more populist TV shows; what feels mainstream is context-dependent.

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4. “Unprecedented” Tech-Driven Growth for Creators & Industry

Timestamps: [11:58] – [13:21]

• Prediction Discussed: New technologies will “supercharge” the industry, unlocking never-before-seen growth.
• Dan Runcie: Wonders if streaming’s slowdown necessitates something truly new.
• Tati Sirisano: Sees more “optimization than innovation” at present; price hikes are tactical, but breaking new ground will require more.

  “What got us here won’t get us to the next stage.” [12:48]

• Dan: Asks if AI music generators (e.g., Suno), TikTok, and licensing deals could catalyze a new boom.
• Tati: Skeptical; “I don't know if it's enough for that unprecedented title, but we'll see.” [13:15]

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5. Artists & AI-Powered Labels—A DIY Future?

Timestamps: [13:21] – [15:13]

• Prediction Discussed: Artists will use AI to independently run labels—handling marketing, fan engagement, distribution, and more—bypassing big labels.
• Dan Runcie: Sees more independence, extrapolating from the SoundCloud era. But will it scale for superstars, or will partnerships with large players always matter?
• Tati Sirisano: Foresees AI tools as “a launchpad at the very least,” especially for emerging artists. But…

  “The number one response I feel like I get [from artists signing to labels] is because they believed in me… Can an AI label provide that? Maybe not. So I think there is like a human element that acts as a real motivator and that may [be] impossible to replicate, but we'll see.” [14:54]

• Dan/Tati: Note the enduring need for human champions and help “to break through the noise.”

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Notable Quotes

• Tati Sirisano [04:18]:
  “The question is do they want to be just fine? If not, I think there is more innovation that needs to happen.”
• Dan Runcie [06:21]:
  “I just don't see Netflix trying to get into the audio business… I just don't see it.”
• Tati Sirisano [09:10]:
  “It's always for you. It's never like for us. Excuse the cheesiness. But… I think that people are yearning for that.”
• Dan Runcie [10:21]:
  “What we think is mainstream to us, you think is the biggest thing in the world, right?... But that's just not the case everywhere.”
• Tati Sirisano [12:48]:
  “What got us here won’t get us to the next stage.”
• Tati Sirisano [14:54]:
  “Can an AI label provide [belief in an artist]? Maybe not. So I think there is like a human element that acts as a real motivator and that may [be] impossible to replicate, but we'll see.”

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• Major Labels’ Future: [03:37] – [05:40]
• Netflix & Spotify Merger Discussion: [05:42] – [07:36]
• Mass Culture’s Return/Persistence: [08:45] – [11:58]
• Tech-Driven “Unprecedented Growth”: [11:58] – [13:21]
• Artists Running AI-Powered Labels: [13:21] – [15:13]

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Tone & Takeaways

The conversation is a blend of data-driven skepticism and industry optimism, with both participants digging beyond surface-level hot takes to probe underlying trends. While neither fully accepts nor rejects the “bold” predictions, both emphasize the nuance and complexity of the industry’s direction. The “human element” comes up repeatedly as irreducible and important, even as technology transforms every other aspect of music and entertainment.

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For Listeners

If you’re curious about where culture, technology, and the music business intersect—and want realistic, well-argued perspectives on which industry futures are hype and which are quietly inevitable—this episode is a succinct, thought-provoking listen.

Transcript

[Tati Sirisano]

Foreign.

[Dan Runcy]

I'm Dan Runcy and you're listening to trapital and you're about to hear our bold Prediction segment from our trapital Summit. I was on stage with our friend of the pod, Tati Sirsano from Midorch and we answered a bunch of questions that came in from trapital Summit attendees on what their predictions were for where.

[Sean T. Smith]

The industry was heading.

[Dan Runcy]

Tati and I read through them all, picked the best ones, and then we shared our thoughts on stage on each of those predictions. We had plenty of strong takes on our end too, so it was a lively conversation and I hope you enjoy it as much as we did. Let's dive in. If you enjoy listening to trapital and want to stay up on the latest about how technology is shaping our culture, then make sure you tap that Star button and tap that Follow button so you can listen to us and get the latest episodes on Spotify, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. This episode of trapital is presented by Splice, the platform that empowers music creation for millions of producers worldwide. Splice has entered the virtual instrument markets with the new flagship product Splice Instrument, which features over 1200 presets at launch. Splice Instrument includes hundreds of meticulously sampled presets spanning pianos, orchestral instruments, choirs, synths, experimental textures including Philip Glass's trusted baby grand piano fix guitar and global sounds like AMA piano. Splice Instrument is available for all creators to download at no cost with over 500 free presets plus monthly limited time drops that can be kept forever. Splice Instrument is built on Spitfire Audio's award winning libraries multi sampled with MIDI playability that are professional, accessible and and already trusted by more than 2 million users. And Splice Instrument will offer accessible plans including a free tier and a full access tier instrument plan for $12.99 a month with new sounds and innovative features that are being added regularly. To learn more, visit splice.com instrument again, that's splice.com instrument or you can click the link in our show notes.

[Sean T. Smith]

So we have to come out to some Bad Bunny.

[Tati Sirisano]

Yeah, obviously a fan.

[Sean T. Smith]

Let's talk about this song. Why did you choose this song?

[Tati Sirisano]

We're talking about bold predictions and Bad Bunny has always struck me as that artist that is the future model, I guess of what a superstar might look like, but also on a personal level. The two places I identify most with are Miami, where I grew up and also kind of grew up as reggaeton was growing up around me, and then New York where I've lived for Almost a decade. So yeah, and it bangs. I mean, what more can I say?

[Sean T. Smith]

Well, I'm sure we could talk a lot about that, but in this session we wanted to talk about bold predictions. You and I have done several podcasts or we've talked about some of the stronger takes of where things are going in the industry. Many of you sent in survey questions in advance of the summit and we wanted to talk through a few of those plus ones that we heard during our networking breaks as well about some bold takes for where things are going in music. And since you and I do this all the time, we can share our opinions on it. So to start things off, I'll actually go with one that I heard during the networking break. Someone said that their bold prediction is.

[Dan Runcy]

That they think the major record labels.

[Sean T. Smith]

Are actually going to be okay.

[Tati Sirisano]

Waves of relief in the room and maybe.

[Sean T. Smith]

I have plenty of thoughts on that statement, but I'll let you start.

[Tati Sirisano]

Yeah, I mean, I think that, I think that it does make sense. I think there are things that are threatening the long standing business model of major labels, like artists increasingly looking to sign distribution deals and things like that. But also they're sitting on a vast treasure trove of catalog. And I think there's sort of an option for labels to be totally fine just becoming almost like asset managers. The question is if they want to do that because labels have always been there to have an impact on culture. So I think that they will be fine. The question is do they want to be just fine? If not, I think there is more innovation that needs to happen.

[Sean T. Smith]

I think they're fine in the fact that it's not like there's going to be oh, this other company surpassed and now there's no longer the big three. That's not a knock at, you know, Hybe or any of the others that are emerged. But I think there's still a difference between those three major companies, of course, Sony, Warner and Universal Music Group. But I do think that them investing in catalog is a big piece of this because that's kind of been their moat back catalog in general. And as we've talked about, it's harder than ever to know what new music is actually going to take off and be successful. I mean we've all seen data from Midea and other places, songs since 2020 that they've been released account for 50% of streams overall. But it's harder than ever to be able to bank on more what's going to last and who owns that is so fragmented now more than Ever. But I do think the fact that they are investing in that catalog and they also have more money to be able to invest in the other ones. Right. Whether it's Warner, the partnership with Bain Capital and then being able to invest in different music rights companies, I mean that feels like where this is heading. And that's how they're able to use that and helps with market share and all their other priorities.

[Tati Sirisano]

And I think adding on that, like with listenership being as fragmented as it is having access to legacy songs and artists that everybody knows is only going to grow in value.

[Sean T. Smith]

Right. All right, what's our next one?

[Tati Sirisano]

Netflix and Spotify will merge in the next five years. I feel like this is one that comes up like once a year. Inevitably somebody, somebody puts this into the other.

[Sean T. Smith]

I think that not necessarily the people in this room, but in general, some of this stems from the love hate relationship that people have with Spotify specifically. And I understand, I'm not saying that everything is praiseworthy, but I do think there is a lot of praise there that deserves to be given. But I do think that sure, maybe in 2022 where the market cap was $14 billion, there could have been a conversation, but I think the company has been very successful financially, especially in the past three years. I just don't see Netflix trying to get into the audio business. And sure, Netflix is a bigger company that has a bigger market cap. I know they have their own trillion dollar aspirations, but I just don't see it.

[Tati Sirisano]

Yeah, I think I agree there's a lot of things that might seem to make sense on paper. Obviously every entertainment company is trying to go after any type of entertainment it doesn't have because the battle for attention is so fierce. And I think so many companies are trying to become that one stop shop. Like you look at an Amazon or an Apple with Apple TV and F1 and the songs and everything. So there's things that make sense on paper, but I also think for a merge to happen in that way, it would have to be sort of mutually beneficial. And I don't know that I see it that way. I think that it's would be more transformative potentially for Spotify than it would be for Netflix. It's not something that I see Netflix like grabbing at.

[Sean T. Smith]

Right. Because Spotify's done more video. But I haven't seen Netflix. I mean there's plenty of things that Netflix have tried to get into, like games and other things that have just dragged on a bit, but I just haven't seen the same push in audio and it's such a different product.

[Tati Sirisano]

Exactly. And it's interesting because Netflix would have the infrastructure to support that kind of additional content streaming and there's synergies that could happen. But yeah, I just, I just don't see it.

[Dan Runcy]

Let's take a break for our chart metric stat of the week. Last week we talked about the hockey stick of growth that best new artist nominee Olivia Dean has had in her career in recent years. Well, the same is true for Leon Thomas. If we date back to August 2024, he had less than 1 million Spotify monthly listeners and 856,000 in the middle of August of 2024. But fast forward to today. Leon Thomas has over 14 million Spotify monthly listeners. And in May he had over 16 million Spotify monthly listeners. A lot of that is because of the success of his hit single Mutt. But he truly had a breakout year this year. But again, this isn't someone who just started making music in 2024. Leon Thomas is a songwriter, producer, overall music creative that has been in the game for over a decade. Well before that he was a child star in Victorious and other TV shows. He's been in the industry for quite some time. So it's really great to see someone like that. These 10 year overnight success stories get their flowers and get the appreciation that they deserve.

[Sean T. Smith]

Next question here. I feel like this one was tailor made for you to answer. We will return back to mass culture within the next five to 10 years.

[Tati Sirisano]

Yeah, this is one of my favorite topics. Topics. As you know, I've done a lot of work looking at just how fragmented things have gotten. And it's interesting because I think that the way that listenership and just entertainment consumption is so fragmented is something that is here to stay and that we're just gonna have to continue to learn how to deal with. Because it's not just a preference thing, it's like an infrastructure thing. It's because of the Internet, it's because of social media, it's because of algorithms. Like these are things that aren't going away. At the same time though, I do sense a sort of yearning among people for more shared experiences, more shared moments. I think part of that is still the after effects of the pandemic. Kids who did their final year of high school in the pandemic or college and are sort of wanting more, more of that shared experience. I think it's also, you think about our experiences on digital platforms these days and they're so hyper personalized, which is great in so many ways. Like I use that kind of stuff all the time, every day. But it also means that it's always for you. It's never like for us. Excuse the cheesiness. But you know, it's. I think that people are yearning for that. The thing is for that mass culture, those more shared mainstream moments, water cooler moments to come back. It's not enough for people to just want them. I think that the way that we market and break things has to change. The platforms themselves have to change because they are driving that fragmentation, which in a lot of ways is beneficial for them. So I guess I could see us moving the pendulum swinging back a bit in that direction, but I think it's complicated.

[Sean T. Smith]

I think this topic, this concept of mainstream, to me, we all have our bubbles and we all have the people that are in our circle. So what we think is mainstream to us, you think is the biggest thing in the world, right? So for instance, when Taylor Swift announced her album, she got engaged to Travis Kelce and a lot of people felt like everyone was talking about it, right? If you're in certain circles, that's all you saw when you opened your feedback. When I put out that newsletter about that mainstream to me and talking about Taylor Swift, I got an email from a reader that works in music lives in Nigeria, and he was like, I'm outside in these places. I don't think most of the people around us can name a single song. I think a lot of you all in your world, especially living on the coast, working the industry, she's everywhere. But that's just not the case everywhere. And especially if you're comparing it to Michael Jackson from like the 80s or like eras like that, it's so different. So in some ways I feel like it goes back to that, right? This mainstream, to me feeling will always be there. But there's just so much value in personalized information and so much value that these platforms have had that maybe from a feeling perspective, we have it like people may think that everyone listens to Sabrina Carpenter, but most people probably couldn't name a song from Sabrina Carpenter. And people may think that's a crazy statement to say, but I do not think that's a crazy thing to say.

[Tati Sirisano]

And if it's. If you're in a situation where something is mainstream to you and that's the real. That's like the bubble or reality you're living in, it doesn't really matter that much that it's not mainstream everywhere else. So that is your version almost of mass culture, right?

[Sean T. Smith]

In my circle, succession felt Mainstream, but there are more people that probably watched Dancing with the Stars or the Masked Singer that night.

[Tati Sirisano]

All right, next topic. Unprecedented growth. New technologies will act as superchargers for creators, distributors and monetizers.

[Sean T. Smith]

So if people are thinking about Spotify in this era of streaming, clearly slowing down from a streaming revenue growth perspective, there will be something else that continues to push forward, or maybe multiple things that continue to push music and the value of music forward. I feel like that's definitely a given, just seeing how music continue to adapt.

[Tati Sirisano]

Unprecedented.

[Sean T. Smith]

But that's the thing. Unprecedented. Could I not like believe that? I don't know. What are your thoughts?

[Tati Sirisano]

Yeah, I think that there's a lot of growth left to be had if we're talking about the platforms. I think with this statement it feels very much about using technology to innovate. And I think that we're in a stage right now where personally I sense a lot more optimization than innovation in the music space, where there's a lot of near term tactics which makes sense, which we need to be clear, like price raises and things like that. But I think that what this person's talking about is more about innovation and unprecedented growth. But it's going to take work. Like what got us here won't get us to the next stage.

[Sean T. Smith]

So if the licensing deals happen with Suno, TikTok, future AI platforms and things like that, could that be the type of thing that leads to said unprecedented growth?

[Tati Sirisano]

I don't know if it's enough for that unprecedented title, but we'll see.

[Sean T. Smith]

All right, I think we have time for one more.

[Tati Sirisano]

Let's do this one. Because you mentioned AI, I think the future of music and entertainment is moving towards artists running their own AI powered labels. That's really interesting. Instead of relying on big companies, creators will use AI tools to handle marketing, fan engagement, distribution and things like that. Do you see that happening?

[Sean T. Smith]

I think we're obviously pushing more towards a level of independence for sure, which is good. Anyone that's vibe coded, anything has seen what these tools can create. The ability for what they allow you to do is great. I think it's will it happen at a scale that is enough to either rival these artists, like doing their own thing. Is the next SZA able to do this? And then by that definition they would forego doing a partnership with tde? Maybe the economics would look a little bit different, but I still feel like there would be something there.

[Dan Runcy]

But I think it would be cool.

[Sean T. Smith]

To see if anything it's going to go that way because we already saw the SoundCloud DIY era do things that weren't even possible 10, 15 years before that in that type of way. So naturally you would see them being able to do that. And whether it's them or a music distribution company that leans more into that, I could see it.

[Tati Sirisano]

I could see it as a launchpad at the very least. We already are seeing tools come out that are like a manager in your pocket type tool where, you know, for newer emerging artists that doesn't yet have a team around them, it can help support that. So I think I could definitely see it in that, in that perspective. This also brings to mind for me the many conversations I've had. Like as part of my job, we do lots of qual interviews, right. With artists about their careers and stuff. And asking them, why did you sign with this label? The number one response I feel like I get is because they believed in me. And I do think that artists want a champion. They want to work with people that believe in them and will really believe in the art that they're doing. Can an AI label provide that? Maybe not. So I think there is like a human element that acts as a real motivator and that may impossible to replicate, but we'll see.

[Sean T. Smith]

And people still need help to break through the noise.

[Tati Sirisano]

Exactly.

[Sean T. Smith]

I'm sure we could continue and do a much longer session, but we'll save that for the podcast.

[Tati Sirisano]

Yeah, let's do it. And if you wrote any of these and you disagree vehemently with what we just said, find us after because I would love to chat.

[Sean T. Smith]

Tati, thank you.

[Tati Sirisano]

Thanks for having me, Dan.

[Dan Runcy]

And that is a wrap for our bold prediction segment of the Trapital Summit. Thanks again to Tati Sirisano for joining me on this one. Thank you again to Sean T. Smith, our audio and video producer for everything that you did to help capture the Trapital Summit. Thank you to G and Eric, our audio and video producers on this podcast, for everything that you do. Thank you again to our Trapital Summit sponsors who helped make it possible. The Rain Group, Splice, Warner Music Group, Beat Bread, Live Nation, Urban 2 Lost, SoundCloud, Linktree, Luminate. Thank you. And most importantly, thank you for listening. If there's one person you know that would really enjoy Trapital and get a lot out of the podcast, then send them a link to the episode. Whether it's this one on Bold Predictions or any of the topics that we've covered on the show, word of mouth is still the best way to grow.

[Tati Sirisano]

And.

[Dan Runcy]

And if you haven't already tap that star button. Make sure you give us a follow on Apple Podcasts, Spotify. Wherever you get your podcasts, leave a comment Leave a review that helps make sure the algorithm does the right thing and trapital reaches the right people. Thanks again. Talk to you next time.