Trapital Podcast Episode Summary

Music is a $47 Billion Industry. Why Isn’t It Bigger?

Host: Dan Runcie
Guest: Will Page, former Spotify chief economist and author of "Pivot"
Date: December 23, 2025

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode dives into the true global value of the music industry, currently estimated at $47.2 billion, and investigates why the industry isn’t bigger—especially given global macroeconomic growth and the proliferation of streaming. Dan Runcy and Will Page break down why music revenue trails both GDP growth and the performance of other sectors like video streaming. They examine why certain markets (US, Japan, China, India, Africa, Brazil, Mexico, Poland, Indonesia, Turkey) have failed to realize their music industry potential and discuss what it will take to close these persistent gaps.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Measuring the True Value of the Music Industry

• Will Page’s research aggregates not just recorded music but also publishing, performance royalties, and more to give a holistic industry value.
  • “When a lot of people talk about how much music is actually worth, they tend to focus on one area, recorded music. But you also have to include publishing revenue from radio, performance, royalties and more.” (Dan, 00:12)
• The industry has nearly doubled from $25B in 2014 to $47.2B in 2024.
  • “It took 10 years for $25 [billion] to double to $50. Is it going to take another 10 for it to double to $100?” (Will, 05:10)

2. The Great GDP vs. Music Revenue Disconnect

• While emerging markets’ economies grow rapidly, music revenues don’t keep pace.
  • Case: India’s GDP just overtook Japan’s, but Indian music revenue lags far behind Japan’s (“Japanese music industry is seven, seven and a half times the size of India’s,” Will, 08:33).
• US share of global music revenue grew disproportionately in recent years, defying macroeconomic predictions.
  • “Back then, the pie was a lot smaller, and America’s share was...smaller...today, the pie is...bigger, and America’s share of that pie is an awful lot bigger indeed.” (Will, 07:10)

3. Subscription Pricing & Consumer Willingness to Pay

• Streaming music is seen as undervalued compared to video streaming.
  • “The eyeballs are making serious coin. The ear holes are making shackles.” (Will, 09:47)
• Consumers will pay for multiple video services but rarely for more than one music service.

4. Country and Region Deep Dives

• India: Music revenue stalling despite booming GDP; growth in music revenue isn’t mirroring economic advancement.
• Japan: Potential for $2B in “found money” if international standards are adopted.
• China: Rapid growth; measurement and categorization of publishing and sync revenues is incomplete, undercounting the market's true size.
  • “The more that we calculate, the more that I can capture.” (Will, 11:34)
  • Even if measured correctly, music revenue would still vastly lag China’s economic might.
• Africa: Growth deeply hampered by lack of copyright infrastructure and collective management organizations.
  • “Africa makes up 18% of the world’s population, around about 3% of the world’s GDP, about half a percent of the world’s value of music copyright.” (Will, 16:16)
  • Importance of building “train tracks” (copyright, infrastructure) before running the trains (activating industry revenue).
• Brazil: Success in growing local streaming, yet mostly insular—almost no foreign artists in top charts.
  • “The top 100 [YouTube] is entirely Brazilian artists all performing in Portuguese…That’s bonkers.” (Will, 20:54)
  • Globalization via exports (“taking popular Brazilian songs and having them being re-recorded in Spanish”), aided by AI-powered translation (23:31).
• Mexico, Indonesia, Poland: Despite rising GDP per capita, label ARPU is flat, showing the “crocodile smile” phenomenon—wealth races ahead, but music spending doesn’t follow (24:11).
• Turkey: Currency turmoil makes music cheap but unattractive to global investors; discrepancy between music and video service pricing.

5. Monetization Gaps—The "Crocodile Smile"

• Term describes countries where GDP per capita surges (“upper jaw” of the crocodile) but music revenue (especially subscription pricing) stagnates (“lower jaw”).
  • “Consumers are getting wealthier thanks to macroeconomics, but the music industry is not capturing that increasing wealth.” (Will, 25:41)
• Advertising won’t close the gap; only meaningful price growth in subscription services can make an impact.

6. AI’s Present & Future Impact

• AI could either complement or cannibalize music industry value.
  • Could disproportionately hurt publishers (e.g., production music, lo-fi/focus music) more than record labels.
  • Raises questions of “fair division” in how streaming revenues are split (labels vs. publishers, radio payments).
  • “Is it fair that a streaming service pays a record label a dollar and pays the publisher 31 cents?...There are reasons because was the way that it was. To quote Chuck D…” (Will, 28:13)
  • Disruption to “focus music” (lofi girl, study music) is likely, but will major labels or artists advocate for these sectors?

7. Fairness & Stakeholder Perspectives

• Must consider fairness not just from the industry, but for creators, platforms, and consumers.
  • Quote: “For heaven’s sake, people, we haven’t even decided who we’re defining fairness for. Is it the creator, the platform, or the consumer?” (David Safir, quoted by Will, 31:48)

8. Reporting, Measurement, and What’s Next

• More inclusive and accurate measurement is key: expanding to more countries, refining data for regions like MENA and Africa, improved collections data.
• Looking forward: Next year’s report may finally see music copyright cross $50B; focus will be on improved global data and infrastructure growth.
  • “The more that we measure, the more that we calculate.” (Will, 33:17)
  • Potential for a Trapital Summit in Los Angeles in 2026 to present and discuss further.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “It took 10 years for $25 [billion] to double to $50. Is it going to take another 10 for it to double to $100?” (Will, 05:10)
• “The eyeballs are making serious coin. The ear holes are making shackles.” (Will, 09:47)
• “Africa needs train tracks before it can run trains. It needs copyright infrastructure before the copyright can truly be monetizable.” (Will, 15:33)
• “If you remember last year...the value of Colombian artist streams in America...was worth more than the entire Colombian music industry because of the higher per stream being captured in that richer country.” (Will, 18:33)
• “Consumers are getting wealthier thanks to macroeconomics, but the music industry is not capturing that increasing wealth.” (Will, 25:41)
• “Is it fair that a streaming service pays a record label a dollar and pays the publisher 31 cents?...There are reasons because was the way that it was. To quote Chuck D, you know…” (Will, 28:13)
• “For heaven’s sake, people, we haven’t even decided who we’re defining fairness for. Is it the creator, the platform, or the consumer?” (David Safir, quoted by Will, 31:48)
• “The more that we measure, the more that we calculate.” (Will, 33:17)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|-----------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:04 | Setting the stage: The global value of music | | 03:36 | Will Page joins; reflections on a decade of tracking industry | | 05:06 | Why hasn’t the industry grown more? | | 08:10 | Disconnect between GDP growth and music revenue (India/Japan) | | 09:29 | Valuing music vs. video subscriptions; “eyeballs vs. ear holes” | | 10:45 | The challenge of measuring and monetizing China | | 13:00 | Debating how/if the GDP vs. music revenue gap can close | | 14:42 | Africa’s music market struggles; need for structural fixes | | 16:45 | Export dynamics (e.g., Nigeria, Colombian artists) | | 20:49 | Brazil: local stars, insular market, globalization via exports | | 24:11 | The Crocodile Smile defined in Mexico, Indonesia, Poland | | 26:47 | ARPU vs. ad revenue; Turkey’s unique economics | | 27:51 | AI: Complement or cannibal? Distributional fairness | | 31:48 | Defining fairness in music business (creator/platform/consumer) | | 33:03 | Report outlook for next year, improved measurement |

Closing Thoughts

This episode highlights how the music industry’s growth is hampered not just by pricing, but by regional, infrastructural, and structural challenges—including underdeveloped copyright enforcement and incomplete data. While technology has driven enormous gains, true global alignment (and industry expansion) will require smarter monetization, improved measurement, and the courage to address persistent “crocodile smiles” in emerging markets.

For deeper dives, see Will Page’s full report (linked in show notes).