Full-Spectrum Puppet Warfare feat. Séamus Malekafzali

Summary

TRASHFUTURE Podcast

Episode: "Full-Spectrum Puppet Warfare feat. Séamus Malekafzali"

Date: January 13, 2026
Guests: Séamus Malekafzali
Main Theme:
An in-depth, characteristically irreverent discussion of the current crisis in Iran, the bizarre and fraught geopolitics surrounding it, and the larger pattern of international mismanagement, sanctions, and imperial confusion. The hosts and Séamus analyze protest movements, foreign meddling, the strategic calculations of global and regional powers, and the "museum of ideologies" that shapes the present moment.

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Episode Overview

Trashfuture gathers its regulars and analyst/journalist Séamus Malekafzali for a sweeping and darkly comic breakdown of the political chaos sweeping Iran. From the latest round of street protests and police crackdowns to the foreign actors – and intelligence agencies – more or less openly jockeying for influence, the conversation traces how years of sanction, neoliberal “reform”, diaspora infighting, and American/Israeli opportunism set up a dangerous and unpredictable future. The team connects the current flashpoints to a broader crisis of legitimacy and competence across the so-called global "block" systems, highlighting the absurdities of puppet warfare, failed statecraft, and the persistent delusions of Western and regional actors alike.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

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Parodying the “Museum of Ideologies” (00:16–07:12)

• Opens with jokes about the idea of a Chinese "Trashfuture" podcast, riffing on Confucian philosophy and the Western obsession with calligraphy and filial piety – lampooning Western self-help Calvinism meeting “new systems.”
• Satirical speculation about Western “liberal order” nostalgia, using examples like Monocle magazine coverage of Damascus and ski resorts for progressive politicians (05:00).
  • Quote: “Europe is a museum of the various sort of beneficiary being the beneficiary of the colonial plunder of the world…The museum element of it doesn't stop in like, 1919. The museum element of it keeps going.” (B, 06:04)
• Suggests that both Europe and Iran are stuck in a historical loop, unable to adapt or reform, and always looking for the next “progressive” or “modern” veneer.

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Spec Ops Fetish and the “Spectacle of Power” (02:04–03:51)

• Ridicules the American (and now UK) infatuation with special forces, referencing Trump’s claim he could “fast-rope out of a helicopter”—the absurdity of spectacle replacing substance in elite politics.
  • Quote: “Donald Trump thinks he could fast rope out of a helicopter. And I think that's beautiful. It's a beautiful diversity in the sort of...due to elite overproduction. The sort of CIA agents of tomorrow have ended up as podcasters. And that's fucked up.” (C, 03:27)

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Brand Identity & the Western Political “Block” (04:21–12:00)

• Discusses how British/Western establishment types obsess over brand identity (e.g., Monocle) and try to reinvent diplomatic rituals, even as their regimes are “sclerotic” and only react to threats from the Left.
• Explores the “organised campaign” rhetoric around attacks on democracy, with a sarcastic take on hybrid and “puppet” warfare.
  • Notable Moment: “We've got a new version of 'can the Subaltern Speak?' I suppose the British MP is silenced by people in their mentions.” (B, 10:36)
• Draws an analogue between the UK and Iran—both unable to reform and thus vulnerable to the dumbest possible reactionaries (“the former Shah of Iran, Nigel Farage”).

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“Full Spectrum Puppet Warfare”: Iran’s Unraveling & Diaspora Schisms (18:27–30:41)

• Kicks off main segment with Séamus: anti-regime protests erupt in Iran, with external actors whipping up/channelling unrest, especially exiled monarchist Reza Pahlavi.
  • A U-Haul crashing a protest in Los Angeles sparks riffs on the chaos of diaspora infighting: “This is a man being commanded from Albania.” (B, 19:32) (Reference to MEK, an exile opposition group)
• Describes how various protest movements in Iran—in response to inflation and U.S. sanctions—have been met with severe police brutality, and now Pahlavi can actually “move people into the streets,” unlike previous years (D, 21:03–24:27).
• Notes increasing violence on both sides: “Mosques were attacked where they weren’t before. Buses were burned, ambulances were attacked.… Just a revolt against the whole system.” (D, 21:53)
• Observes Tehran regime’s inability to reform; protests are more anti-systemic than ever before, but:
  • “This is a bad draw. And then at the end of it, you get Donald Trump just to push the whole thing over.” (C, 35:06)
• Compares Iran’s internal repression with worsening state responses in the U.S. and Venezuela, highlighting hypocrisy and the global trend toward clampdowns under the guise of “defending democracy.”

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Foreign Meddling and Collapse of Pretenses (25:03–28:37)

• Israel and the U.S. now openly brag about orchestrating Iranian protests (“Congratulations to Mossad for successfully orchestrating all of these protests”—C, 25:03).
• Unlike the coyness after the 2009 “Green Movement,” officials and media now compete to claim credit, hoping to either topple Iran or discredit the opposition (“play all my cards at once” confused strategy).
• General sense that uprisings lack both “internal hands” and street organization: “No one really has a clear idea what they can do.” (C, 28:53)

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The Problem of the Monarchist (and “No Future” Under Sanctions) (30:41–41:42)

• Focus on Reza Pahlavi’s outsized influence: “It's just him. And because it's just him, he can do whatever he wants. He's not really beholden to anybody.” (D, 41:16)
• Monarchists are loud and organized abroad (tactical embassy-flag takedowns), but remain a minority opinion inside Iran. Most young people feel shut out by both the monarchy and the Islamic Republic, with sanctions and privatization destroying opportunity.
  • “If you have no future...and you’ve been told by the President of America that if you go out into the streets and are killed, we will come in with jets to protect you—that is a very tempting offer.” (D, 41:17)
• Joke about the Western fantasy: “What Iranians want is to wear bikinis… That’s the future of Iran.” (A, 28:53)

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Macro Strategy, Russia, and “Eating the Chess Pieces” (33:57–52:25)

• Nova introduces an “eating the chess pieces” theory: Iranian state tries rational “chess” moves against unpredictable opponents, who don't play by rules.
• Iran’s geopolitical bets in Syria and with Russia yield little return: “Had they not intervened so strongly in Syria, they may have gotten a more friendly post-Assad governance.” (D, 35:12)
• The killing of Soleimani marked a missed opportunity for the Republic to rebrand as anti-imperialist and popular among youth.
  • “They could’ve focused on anti-imperialism as the unifying factor, rather than Islamism.” (D, 37:23)
• Critique of the “block” system: relying on Russia or the U.S. as security patrons turns out disastrous when those leaders are “insane,” unreliable, or have other priorities (C/B, 49:24–51:19). China, meanwhile, is distant and offers platitudes.

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The Stain of Non-Nuclearization, Looming Intervention (44:24–54:18)

• Harsh assessment of Iran’s faith in rules-based international order: “America is a rabid dog... North Korea built nukes; Iran did not, and kneecapped itself.” (D, 46:35–47:20)
• Cycle of attempted rapprochement/negotiation (JCPOA) always ends in betrayal, bombing, or new demands by the U.S.
• The opposition’s tactical claims for a future monarchy echo the same ambiguous promises Khomeini made in 1978 about post-Shah “democracy”—implying the cycle is likely to repeat.

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The “Syria Model”: Bomb to Oblivion, Not Regime Change (54:18–64:59)

• Even if the Islamic Republic were toppled, foreign powers (especially Israel) would prefer “Syria 2.0”—a destroyed, fragmented Iran rather than a sovereign monarchy or republic.
  • “Even in this fantasy… they still bomb everything into oblivion and make it a weak state.” (D, 56:32)
• Monarchist leader Pahlavi is widely derided for his lack of popular support and, humorously, his bad suits and preference for tracksuits (A/D, 57:09–57:26).
• Trump and the Americans remain scornful of exiled royalty—pointing to the emptiness of the “restoration” vision (C, 58:11).

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Prospects for Foreign Intervention (65:00–64:59)

• U.S. airstrikes against Iran now seem likely, though an Iraq or Syria-style invasion is out of reach; spectacle and destruction, rather than actual regime change, are now goals.
  • “They can easily do spectacle…to embolden protesters on the street…Because now they’ve seen that the American president will back up his words with action.” (D, 62:23)
• The taboo of “rallying around the flag” amid foreign attacks has been broken; rising protest in the face of Israeli/American escalation reflects total loss of legitimacy for the current regime.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Welcome to the Chinese Trash Feature… The podcast where the future will and always will be Chinese.” (A/B, 00:33–00:39)
• “We've got a new version of ‘can the Subaltern speak?’ I suppose the British MP is silenced by people in their mentions.” (B, 10:36)
• “You’ve heard of hybrid war? Total war? Welcome to puppet war.” (B, 13:40)
• “Monarchists are…a rabidly supportive bunch. In the diaspora, especially in the United States and Europe, they are willing to go to bat for this guy. But…domestically, no.” (D, 41:20)
• “America is a rabid dog…North Korea built nukes; Iran did not, and kneecapped itself.” (D, 46:45)
• “The block system is not working out for really anybody.” (B, 51:22)
• “It is time of monsters. Again.” (A, 65:01)
• “My thing is irrespective of any geopolitical thoughts about it, I tweeted the other day: I hope the people overthrow the regime — whichever regime. And that’s basically where I come down.” (C, 65:52)

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Structure & Timeline

• 00:16–07:12: Satirical opening; “Chinese Trashfuture”; museum/nostalgia for liberal order.
• 07:12–20:07: Jokes segue into political/cultural analysis of brand identity, British/Western response to “defending democracy,” Parliament’s ineptitude.
• 20:07–30:41: Iran protests context; analysis of internal and exile politics; monarchy as the only “option” after decades of repression.
• 30:41–41:42: U.S. sanctions, neoliberal reforms, and pervasive corruption; generational and economic despair.
• 41:42–52:25: Strategic foreign policy failures; failed “block” alliances; China and Russia’s limitations.
• 52:25–64:59: Nuclear nonproliferation as national self-sabotage; prospects of U.S. (and Israeli) military escalation.
• 65:00–End: Summary reflections; critique of the Democrats/Biden/Obama foreign policy “dominoes”; exit banter and plugs for Séamus’s work.

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Conclusion

A deep-dive episode blending bleak humor, historical context, and critical examination of the intersections between domestic unrest in Iran, diaspora politics, and vast international failures. The episode excels at exposing the absurdities, tragic cycles, and emptiness of modern regime change rhetoric, while skewering the delusions and self-aggrandizement of both Western and regional players. A must-listen for anyone wanting to make sense of an incredibly messy and dangerous geopolitical moment.

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Further Reading/Listening

• Séamus Malekafzali’s writing: seamusmalekafzali.com
• Turbulence Podcast (hosted by Séamus): turbulencepod.substack.com

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For full context and even more jokes about tracksuits, European museums, and puppet warfare, listen to the full episode.

Transcript

[A]

I do like the idea of, like, Chinese TF sort of existing and we're gonna find out about it really soon, and it's just kind of like exactly the same as this show, but. Yeah, yeah, but, but, but in Mandarin.

[B]

Hello, everybody, and welcome to.

[C]

Chinese Trash feature.

[A]

Welcome to the Chinese Trash feature.

[B]

Oh, my God. Only imagine.

[A]

Yeah, the podcast where the future will and always will be Chinese.

[B]

Oh, my God. Okay. That's when we can finally end the show. When the future.

[C]

When the future truly become Chinese.

[D]

No, they do. They do the ending of Huobic's submission, but everybody gets, like, fancy Chinese pensions.

[A]

Yeah, yeah.

[D]

God, I wish.

[A]

Yeah. Well, I mean, I do wonder what Welbeck would have thought about, like, the sort of alternate ending of Submission where Francis has become Chinese. He'd probably be really into it, right?

[D]

Yeah, yeah. He's always been into, like, new systems, things different from his old decadent lifestyle.

[A]

Yeah, and young Asian women, from what I recall. That's the main thing. It's like. Yeah, I'm into like, new systems and like Confucian philosophy. Oh, okay, so you actually are just into young Chinese women.

[B]

It's like.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, okay.

[B]

Yeah, that's right.

[C]

Guy who gets into Confucian philosophy. Philosophy as a new system is a really good bit. Like, we really need some new innovative ideas. We're not stuck in the past.

[B]

Look, it's really, really, really important that your calligraphy is perfect if you want to be foreign minister.

[C]

Oh, my calligraphy is too bad to be on Chinese Trash feature. I'm sorry, my filial piety is for shit as well.

[B]

Welcome to tf. It's Seamus. And when you hear that voice, you know we are going to be talking about some geopolitics because, God, there's a lot of geopolitics. I have a. I want to think about, like, goofy. But the geopolitics keeps intruding.

[C]

We are all held prisoner by the continued existence of the news.

[B]

Yes. And we are also, I note, living in a world where a very small number of people are enormously consequential for the future of everything from all life on earth to how things will go on a day to day basis for people very far away from them. But it also means that there are some hilarious events that could be quite consequential. For example, the content of today's episode will be entirely moot if Donald Trump convinces everyone around him to let him do his Navy feet. SEAL Fast rope plan.

[C]

Yeah, he said he could fast rope out of a helicopter. And I think we're all united in saying we want him to try it. Mr. President, sir, you would be so good at fast roping out of a helicopter and you wouldn't die. And you should do it, and you should do it on live tv, please, as soon as possible.

[D]

Okay. I do want to just, like, butt in here very briefly. There's like, I am. I am a man.

[C]

I've been a young male before, same, but you know.

[B]

Yeah, you got. You got better.

[D]

Yeah, exactly. And always you will hear American men, American boys, talking about, like, how they would do spec ops forces stuff. They would do American military stuff really well. I thought that for a long time still in a base part of my brain, I think I would do pretty well at that. But the rope thing, I never could do that. No, absolutely not. I don't think that's for me. I don't. I think people who think they can do that are like, just.

[C]

We could all. We would all, like, we all think we could be different kinds of operators, you know, like, you think you'd be really good at the, like. Like the Kill House thing from Call of Duty. Donald Trump thinks he could fast rope out of a helicopter. And I think that's beautiful. It's a beautiful diversity in the sort of, like, due to elite overproduction. Right. The sort of CIA agents of tomorrow have ended up as podcasters. And that's fucked up.

[B]

But it's kind of weird to think that, like, if there's one man where, if he decides to try fast roping, like, you know, a lot of this stuff would change. Like, if Obama tried fugu fish and, like, the chef fucked up and, like, he died, then a lot of things would have just, like, kind of carried on in much the same way. Just, we do know. We do know what happened, which is the apparatus just carried on. Things would have been largely the same. But this guy, if he. If he does the fast roping, this episode will. You can delete it. It will be moot.

[C]

It's true. It will age very poorly.

[B]

But before we go into it, I have a couple of things I want to talk about and we're going to actually come, probably we're going to come back to this first news item, which is. I've been seeing jokes for a few months about how serious brand identity is. It's like they're angling for a collaboration with Monocle magazine and.

[D]

Okay, is this magazine more popular in Britain? Monocle magazine?

[C]

No, this is.

[D]

This is.

[C]

This is a Riley special is what you're getting here.

[D]

Okay.

[A]

Sometimes I buy Monocle as a treat. Like, if I'm at, like, an airport or I'm going for a long train journey. I don't know why, because, like, I skim through it and I'm just, like, none of this is of, like, of interest to me, but also, like, it's the most unrelatable. Not to say that, like, it needs to be relatable, but it's kind. It's just. It's a very strange public. I don't know whether you read that piece in, like, the New Republic about Monocle like, kind of being out of place in the modern kind of publishing environment, because it's like, the liberal order that it sort of, like, creates an aesthetic around, like, no longer exists. But it is. It is. It is very strange. There was the last article I remember reading on, there were, like, how the argument was, like, there were new ski resorts opening up where young radical progressive politicians could sort of meet up and chart a different course for how to do diplomacy. And half of the article was about the jackets they were wearing.

[C]

See, this is the thing you say that that doesn't exist anymore, but the dream is still alive in Syria, in Damascus.

[A]

That's right. Okay.

[B]

All right.

[A]

That's right.

[B]

I mean, okay, Tyler Brule going, like, next year in Damascus.

[A]

The Monocle Guide to Damascus. I'm looking forward to that. Tyler Brule. Let me. Let me go on your staff so I can do that little booklet for you.

[B]

They so badly want to be the first magazine to ever go up to Al Sharra and ask who he's wearing. No one has wanted to do that so badly. And we're going to actually come. Probably come back to this a little bit later. There's a reason I'm sort of threading in this serious stuff up front is that just like, Europe is a museum of, you know, the various sort of beneficiary being the beneficiary of the colonial plunder of the world. Yeah, all this. It's also a museum. The museum element of it doesn't stop in, like, 1919. The museum element of it keeps going. They're the only people who are really still committed to, like, multilateralism or diplomats getting together on the slopes to hash it out.

[D]

It's.

[C]

It' the museum of ideologies. Yeah. We should get some Confucianism in there, too.

[B]

Yeah. And so, like, the, like, fawning coverage of Al Sharah in Monocle has, like. It's getting so much. There's so much more of it, I.

[C]

Think not to Keep, like, doing the ADHD thing of, like, fixating on a joke, but I think we might be looking at the world's first menswear regime and I think that that could be really inspirational, that there could be somewhere that anybody who watches a lot of videos about, like, no, it's Goodyear Welted can go and just kind of like, kick it.

[B]

But, like, Al Shurra did wear a lot of double monks in the early 2010s, so it is still actually illegal to say that he's fire. Anyway, so he's written. Now, this is the most recent thing from monocles from two days ago. It says obstacles are to be expected, but signs for Syria are positive. On Tuesday, Israel and Syria agreed to set up a joint mechanism for intelligence sharing during US mediated talks, with the first extraordinary step towards normalizing relations. It's quite the turnaround. Until Assad's fall, Syria was firmly part of the Russia, China, Iran power bloc that Donald Trump now appears to have in his sights. Venezuela fell within that sphere of influence to U.S. special forces moved into Caracas. Syrians watching events in Latin America and the ongoing protests in Iran will be relieved that their company, that their country has moved firmly into Washington and Trump's sphere. I am sure. I am certain of it.

[D]

That's.

[B]

That's the thing. That's the thing that they're relieved about 100%. Like, finally, we're in Washington sphere. That's going to be great.

[C]

Look, a lot of people may have died, but now you can have openly discussed meetings between Syrian and Israeli intelligence. So in a way, wasn't that worth it? Does that make you feel good?

[B]

You can have openly discussed meetings between Syrian and Israeli intelligence in the magazine for, like, architects who want to find out what turtleneck is hot.

[D]

What do they talk about? What intelligence they need to share? One country is invading the other, like.

[C]

What we need to talk about.

[B]

Yeah, we're still invading you. That thing that your leader's named after. We're still invading it. Still got it.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

Anyway, there's a. But there's one more thing I wanted to discuss as well, and this is sort of going to be the lead in to our main discussion for the day, which is of course going to be about Iran and the why things are happening there and the prospects, again, for the US to just because it's really feeling itself now, just start fucking around. And that is a little more domestic UK stuff. This is Nick, Timothy and John Woodcock. Lord Walney is, of course, I would say, spuriously elevated to the Lords Thereby ending a House of Commons investigation against him for sexual misconduct. Yeah. Interesting how he became the anti Semitism czar after that. Anyway, don't look into it. They've launched an all party parliamentary group for defending democracy.

[C]

Oh, from. From the right. Right. Like from Elon Musk and. And Tommy Robinson.

[B]

100%. 100% right. They said. Well, let me just. I didn't actually read. I never read anything before putting it in the notes. So let me. I'm sure that's what it says. Let me just take a quick look here. Senior parliamentarian said threats abused in organized campaigns. I hate organized campaigns. Had reached new levels. And we're undermining confidence in public life. Do you know that organized campaigns are reaching new levels here and there?

[C]

All those guys dressed like crusaders, Like, I remember that.

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

That's an organized campaign that seemed to be sort of like threatening to democracy to me.

[B]

I'm looking, I'm looking, I'm looking. Those are the ones who are protecting it. The guys who they're threatening are threatening democracy. You got it backwards. Yeah.

[C]

Okay.

[B]

Lord Walney, the government's former anti extremism czar, and Nick Timothy, formerly Theresa Mays, like Svengali. Nick Timothy, the Conservative mp, said the issue had slipped down the government's agenda despite a sharp rise in the number of politicians requiring police protection. But he said the scale of the problem remained largely hidden because many victims were too frightened to speak publicly. Saying many MPs have got really horrible, horrendous experiences that they're reluctant to share. We've got a new version of can the Subaltern Speak? I suppose the British MP is silenced by people in their mentions.

[D]

Yeah, yeah.

[B]

So the threats to democratic institutions come from hostile states. Iran, China, Russia, not.

[C]

Oh, those ones.

[B]

Those are hostile states. Yeah. And Islamic extremism.

[D]

Sure, sure.

[A]

Right, yeah.

[C]

Okay.

[B]

100%. Saying this had been brought into focus by the controversy over the decision to ban the fans of Maccabi Tel Aviv from attending a match in Birmingham to do the, like.

[D]

You're still talking Japanese.

[C]

Japanese island holdout thing of, like, really going after West Midlands police for this one months later is.

[D]

Yeah. When was this game? Like, last year? More than, like. Yeah, months ago. Oh, my God.

[B]

As I recall. I think maybe we talked about it. This.

[D]

Exactly.

[C]

I'm just going down in the thing that I'm reading for the first time here. And Nick Timothy describes this as hybrid warfare. Right. And so I guess I missed the bit in the latest sort of Call of Duty campaign where it's like a shadowy alliance of Iran and China and Hezbollah and West Midlands police against the sort of noble Maccabi Tel Aviv fan. I'm not sure how that sort of fits into the sort of threats to our democracy, but here is the thing. I can put a beautiful button on this, right?

[D]

Yes.

[C]

I can do a really beautiful analogy, because here's the thing. In this country, what we have is a sclerotic regime that is only capable of perceiving and repressing threats to its left and is ultimately going to be completely bushwhacked by a previously thought not to be credible threat from its right. And much like another country, it's because it could only put in charge the most tepid incompetent reformist who could get past a sort of group designed to sort of mold the values of that, you know, which I'm going to call by the name of the popular left wing newspaper and call the Guardian Council. And so ultimately, what we have in this country is a really unstable regime that could well fall to the hands of the dumbest possible right winger, the former Shah of Iran, Nigel Farage.

[B]

Ayatollah Ali Starmer. Perfect. Awesome.

[C]

Do you like that metaphor? I spent some time.

[D]

No, that looked like it was involved. It was, it was. It was biting. It was almost like. It was like I was watching Spitting Image.

[B]

Yeah, Yeah.

[C]

I have to kill myself. I have to kill myself.

[D]

Look, all I will say about Spitting Image, I may have brought this up before. Spitting Image was really. They really did big stuff for Iranians. There are not only a spitting ver. A Spitting Image version on Iranian state tv, there was another version of Spitting Image on Iranian opposition tv. Like, they loved that shit. All right, don't, don't, don't knock yourself.

[B]

You've heard of hybrid war? Total war. Welcome to puppet war.

[A]

Well, I'm very excited for. What is it? Was it Matt Chorley?

[B]

No, it was Matt Ford.

[A]

Matt Ford. No match for the Matt Ford. Yeah.

[C]

Difference.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

One of the mats, Matt Ford.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

Matt Ford's like, next, Next. Great.

[D]

Next.

[A]

Great Splitting image will be in Iran.

[C]

Full spectrum puppet warfare.

[B]

All right, all right. Well, that's, it's. The other thing is, that's a good candidate for episode title because it will. You absolutely will not expect what it refers to when you click on the episode. Nick, Timothy said, before we sort of move on, what we're facing is not hybrid warfare. It's a postmodern version of total warfare, where our values and our systems and our way of life is challenged across pretty much every conceivable field.

[A]

Right, okay. You just sort of saying stuff now. This is very like Charlie Brown had hoes territory. It's like.

[C]

No, like.

[A]

No, no, that's not true. This is, this isn't. What, what are you talking about?

[B]

What are you talking about, Nick?

[C]

Traditional values of letting Tel Aviv fans do whatever they want are being sort of epistemologically threatened.

[A]

Well, this is also, it's like, well, okay, like, what is the. I mean, like football hooliganism as a value for sure, but like, like at least get like British football hooligans to sort of destroy Birmingham, you know, like.

[C]

Just ending up like offshoring, even that.

[A]

Yeah, exactly. Like, you know, we, you know, there aren't very many jobs going around and like, I feel, I feel, I feel like, you know, it would be a very sad thing to outsource our hooliganism to, to, to another country, you know.

[B]

Yeah. But also. And just before we go on as well, Right, Especially because we're going to talk about something that's like, you know, a bit challenging. Right. We're talking about, you know, Iran, the protest. We're actually not talking about Shah Farage, we're talking about Shah Pahlavi, the protests. It's not a bad comparison. The protest, the response to them, etc. I also, I don't want to do that without also mentioning, of course, what's happening in the United States and its response also to domestic protests, especially the parts of it that have been highlighted by the regime as hotbeds of Somali daycare fraud that are being choked by the Gestapo. And the Fox News approach to dismissing state sanctioned killing. He was no angel or whatever. She was no angel. Now appears to just be government policy where first the state kills you, then they go to work on you.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

And, you know, while the response to Venezuela is also. The Venezuelan regime change operation is becoming clearer. The extractive imperial intention being made more and more and more obvious. I mean, it was clear to us the whole time, obviously, but I mean, clear to people who aren't really going into it with an ideology already. You know what I mean? And we can see this, know where it's going. I mean, already Donald Trump is trying to threaten oil companies into investing in Venezuela to make his regime change operation look good.

[C]

It's so, it's so confused.

[B]

Yeah. In fact, this is from the FT. Donald Trump said he might block ExxonMobil from investing in Venezuela. Venezuela after the US oil company's chief executive said the country was uninvestable during a meeting with Trump Saying I didn't like Exxon's response. I'd be inclined to keep Exxon out. I didn't like their response. They're too cute.

[C]

Just incredible. I mean, I have a sort of thesis to tie this together once we're sort of done talking about Iran in like an hour's time. But like Donald Trump is sort of like this incredible, chaotic, self contradictory presence that just really fucks up all sorts of ways of understanding this, where it's like, yeah, it's a resource grab, but the guys who are going to grab the resources say there are no resources for them to grab profitably. And he's just going to try and make them do it anyway. It's like extract the fucking profit, you know.

[B]

He's playing with his toys.

[C]

What do you mean? I thought after the Venezuelan revolution I was going to be sort of like doing McKinsey consultancy in all of their, in all of their ministries. Steal the fucking oil.

[B]

Yeah, this was about oil. You remember Iraq oil. Come on, play your part.

[C]

It's like Baron made Donald Trump listen to Rock against Bush Volume 1 in the car too many times and now he's like, got it. Wars about oil. So I should make them take the oil.

[B]

Yeah, very ab thinking. But also, you know, when we're talking about threats to democracy. You brought this up earlier, Nova. You know, this is at a time when the. Trump has explicitly threatened the UK with sanctions if Elon Musk is not allowed to interfere in our elections by forcing everybody onto pedophile radio mil.

[C]

Colleen, sort of don't do what Donny don't does there of like you are threatened with sanctions if you don't allow him to not ban the. Yeah, sure, gotcha.

[B]

Exactly. So like backsliding from democracy. This is like brutal suppression tactics at home and abroad. I mean, you know, it's, it is remiss for us to you know, not, not mention that this is carrying on and accelerating in the west.

[C]

Really. You really cannot lose on repression. It's, it's a real like just sort of do what you want viol for violence kind of world now, which is great. I love that. That's fantastic.

[B]

So I want to, I want to start with, with something with. Maybe we'll start on the lighter side, I think a little bit here, which is we're going to switch into our main topic, which is this is mostly a question for Seamus. Seamus, firstly, do you ever just see something and you're just like a switch flips in your brain and you're like, that's ME K. That's the mek. That's definitely me.

[D]

I don't do it as often, but it is. It is like an instinct. Yes.

[B]

Yeah. So when a U Haul truck drove into a crowd at a protest in Westwood, Los Angeles, where Demonstra were rallying in support of protests in Iran, police and local media say this car, you know, drove into people. People were injured, not killed. This truck displayed a no Shah, no regime banner and other anti regime slogans, but authorities have not yet confirmed a motive or any arrests. And the second I saw the banner, I was like, mek. Yeah, that's. That's the Mek shit right there.

[D]

I saw the color scheme. I saw like the. I'll be respectfully the poor English. And I was like, okay, yeah, this is an MEK truck. And he saw. He saw before him a crowd of monarchists that he run over and he just. He just went for it. Yeah.

[B]

Like, this is a man being commanded from Albania.

[D]

I just want to say I'm not laughing because I don't want. I don't want anybody to be killed, but just. Just a confluence of an insane. Two insane groups of people coming up against each other and like.

[B]

Like, Like MEK Almost second only to like, the fucking reunion, the Unification Church in terms of like, it's. It's genuine. Yeah.

[C]

Nationalist dumbest ends of sort of like exile, emigre, diaspor, banging into each other, or rather one banging into the other. You know, like, great force.

[B]

And so like, let's, let's. But let's use that as our entry point.

[D]

Right.

[B]

Like there are just to sort of give us an outline of what's going on. Right. There is a crowd of Iranian monarchist protesters protesting the mek, which is like a very confused political ideology that's sort of anti. Most of it as sort of seeing this as their moment.

[C]

I oppose the current thing.

[B]

Yeah, Very much, frankly. You know, and the previous thing.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

And the thing before that. Right. At the same time, like, a protester has climbed onto the balcony of the Iranian embassy in central London and replaced the current flag, the Islamic Republic, with the sort of the pre Islamic revolution line and sun flag, which the BBC is. Says, often used by opposition groups in the country, but often, often used by monarchists.

[C]

Opposition groups.

[B]

Yeah, I noticed that. So, like, let's. Let's like, take some of these strange spasms of nationalism and let's sort of put them into a larger story. Seamus, what's going on?

[D]

I mean, there were protests that started occurring on December 28th over the record high Inflation that has been rocking the country. I mean, something. I mean, the spiral has been affecting the country under US Sanctions for God knows how long. But it really ramped up after Trump tore up the jcpoa, Shopkeepers closed their shops and, you know, demanded action by the government. The president came and attempted to implement some sort of economic reforms. There was a new cash subsidy that got implemented. The governor of the central bank got replaced by someone who was also the governor during a time period of massive inflation. So paltry reforms in that regard really did not do a lot to hamper, if that's the right word for it, the spread of these protests. But for a while, they were not bigger than the Mahsa Amini protests up until last weekend, middle of last week, into the weekend, when Reza Pahlavi started calling for specific protests at specific times. And the numbers in the streets at night became much more numerous and much more violent. What was different at this time was that in previous protests, Reza Pahlavi did not have any real influence on any protests. He was not able to exert any kind of influence really whatsoever. Neither him nor Masih Ali Najad, who is someone that listeners might be familiar with. But now he has been able to move people into the streets through calls that circulate on Instagram and on telegram. And a lot of these violent actions by protesters have been met by an absolutely just abominable police response. Hundreds have been killed on the protesters side, and the protesters have killed, I want to say, over 30 members of the security services, but that number could be outdated by now. What has been, I think, different about this, other than the fact that Pahlavi has been able to exert influence where he wasn't able to before has been, I mean, just the really, like, wide scope of the violence that the protesters have done, to say nothing of the response by the police. Mosques were attacked where they weren't before. Buses were burned, ambulances were attacked. Fire trucks were burned. Just like a real anti. I mean, not just anti government, but really just a revolt against the whole system as a whole. And right now, the big maw hanging over everything is that Trump has promised military intervention in this regard to assist the protesters. Previously, he promised that if the police started killing protesters, he would immediately move to deliver a very severe strike. And then the police started killing people. And then he started bizarrely claiming that all of the people who have been killed so far have been killed in a stampede, which I never saw anyone else claim. And now, I guess after the most recent mass killings by police, now he is moving toward some sort of strike options. There's supposed to be a security briefing on Tuesday. That's a general overview.

[C]

Yeah, there's also this sort of side aspect of this, which is Netanyahu and a bunch of other Israeli figures claiming as loudly as possible, hey, by the way, all of this is us. Congratulations to Mossad for successfully orchestrating all of these protests. Because that's a win win for them, right? Like, you destabilize Iran if they overthrow the Islamic Republic, great. If they don't, and a bunch of people get shot, that's also great. And it sort of, like, it sort of boosts Mossad's profile, which is an insane thing to do with an intelligence agency. But, you know, it's in the sort of, like, playbook, you know.

[D]

Precisely.

[B]

They need their brand deal.

[D]

I mean, what was the case, like, in years past, where was the US And Israel were very strict about, like, not announcing that they were involved in intervening in protest movements? And I mean, the US during the Green Revolution. No, sorry, not Green Revolution. Nothing happened. Green Movement.

[C]

They.

[D]

The resolution, like, took steps to, like, not align themselves publicly with the protesters because there was a belief that if they did that, then it would discredit them. But now the either competing with each other to loudly announce, like, as you're saying, nova. Like, yeah, we're in there. Like, Mike Pompeo, the former Secretary of State, did a holiday message where he was like, glory to every Iranian protester and the Mossad agents beside them. The Mossad's official account on Twitter, which is the only account it has in any language, officially announced that they are in with the field with them. The Israeli Heritage Minister announced that there were Mossad agents on the ground, but not to overthrow the government, but to make sure that Iran was neutralized as a threat, which I don't. There's also this very strange thing where they are saying all these things that strongly imply that there are agents on the ground working to overthrow the government. But also they're not doing that because that would discredit the protesters. So they're saying they're there to neutralize the threat, but overthrow it. Or there was someone on channel 14 talking about how protesters are getting guns from somewhere and there are agents on the ground from other countries, but not Israel. And there are also public broadcaster talking about how Israel is not going to intervene because they want to see how things play out. Like, they're trying to play all different sides of this rhetorically.

[C]

If I play all my cards at once, then I'm Confusing my. I mean the thing is, I think.

[B]

It is a confusion. The world's first 52 card poker hand.

[C]

Yeah, well, the thing is, I think it's. Is partially they're able to do that because it's such a confused situation. Right. Like they've cut off the Internet, so it's like we're dependent for news on whoever can get to like a starlink antenna or like whoever's whatsapps get through or whatever, which is not very much. But more than that, you have a kind of like, it seems to me basically like semi organized uprising that isn't really in anyone's hands firmly.

[D]

I would go even less than that. Not even semi organized. I mean these people are being directed from abroad. Not even in like a, like in like in an agent sense in which like there's a, there's a, like a telegram channel run by Reza Pahlavi who is in Maryland, gives them a speech telling them to go take over the city centers and then they move into the city centers. But this was the, I guess the, the moment which crystallized for me that, okay, the Republic is sticking around as long as there isn't a military intervention. Mention in that, okay, Rasa Pahlavi now has the ability to move people into streets. That's bad because he is somebody who is entirely within the Israeli orbit and will do anything to achieve power. But when he tells people to start seizing city centers, he moves people into the street. But there's no one to take over. They can't establish any sorts of institutions. They can't establish forces to take control of these places. There's nothing there. There are just young people who are disillusioned with the government going out and then they set fires, they chant against the government, they clash with police, but there's nothing to happen after that point. You only have those options available to you. Yeah.

[C]

If you want to build institutions. Have I got the Syrian president for you? It just struck me of like everyone trying to ride this wave of actual popular like rage and no one really having a clear idea of what they can do.

[A]

It's very clear what the people of Iran want, which is that they all want to wear bikinis. Yes.

[C]

Yeah. They want to return with a V.

[A]

They want to return with the V to those photos where it's like this was Iran before the Ayatollahs and they're all wearing bikinis. And that's the future of Iran. That's the future of.

[B]

Yeah, you used to be able to do that, but they turned off Grok's ability to do that.

[A]

That's why the government turned off Grok, because Grok was like, like, yeah, we can't see this many people with bikinis. It's crazy. You can't do that.

[C]

When we were writing the notes for this, I was like, I don't want to premise this too much on the idea that this is necessarily the collapse of the Islamic Republic, because it could well not be. It could be like 2009, like 2019, like 2022, where it's like, yeah, the sort of bravest and angriest people under 25 in the country get shot in the face and then it all just gets crushed back down again. We have no idea. Idea. But it feels different now in the sense that with, admittedly, yes, some prompting, you can get a mob of people out on the streets to chant successfully that they want the king back. And that's frightening in the sense that, you know that a monarchy is always terrible and this particular monarchy will be terrible as well. But I think just to sort of do the setup after the punchline, right, for the thing I said earlier, it's like the Islamic Republic was always, always like one of those rabidly anti communist regimes in history, right? Like, always terrified of threats to its left. Right. And like this one guy in Virginia who, like, declared himself king in, like 1980 in Cairo, it's like, who cares? But if you repress all of that other more credible stuff enough and people are still angry, then they're going to go to answers to the last person left, you know?

[D]

Exactly, exactly. I mean, all of these communist parties that you're talking about, they exist essentially online and in PA paper only. There was a protest by the Worker Communist Party of Iran, which is based in, I think the Netherlands now. And there were like five people at this protest because all of these organizations have been effectively wiped off the map, either by military crackdowns or institutional crackdowns, police, anything. Aedes was very bad to these people. And what is left is Reza Al Pahlavi because he always had the most profile. And kind of conversely, after the crackdown on loyalists in the very early 1980s, he also doesn't have any organization around him. It's just him. And he can do basically whatever he wants. There have been other attempts to form coalitions with him. There was an attempt to form a coalition with Masih Ali Nejad, with Kurdish separatist leaders, with a bunch of different activists back in like 2023, and like actors from Homeland, I think as well, the situation is bad, all right? The opposition, and it completely fucking fell apart squarely because of Reza Pahlavi and his refusal to work with anybody else or to accept any other opinions. Like, it's just him. And because it's just him, he can do whatever he wants. He's not really beholden to anybody because his sycophants will always be there for him and are a rabidly supportive bunch. I mean, the. Like, especially in the Diaspora, especially in the United States and in Europe, where they are now doing. I mean, Pahlavi made a call, like, go up to the embassies and, like, take them over. So now what they're doing is they're not going inside the embassies because that would result in, you know, them getting shot, but they're taking down the flags like you were talking about in London. They just took down a flag, I think, at the consulate at Frankfurt and elsewhere. Like, they're willing to go to bat for this guy. But to the extent that it is a majority opinion in Iran domestically, no, of course not. That's not been the case. That's not to prove it to be the case. But a lot of these young people in Iran, they're disillusioned with the system. They see no political avenues within the Islamic Republic. Now, there is no economic future, partly because of neoliberalism and privatization, but also largely because American sanctions have blocked them off from large parts of the market. There is no economic future as well. And if you have no future, and you have been told by the President of America that if you go out into the streets and you are killed, we will come in with jets to protect you, that is a very tempting offer to people. Like, if you have no other options, you feel that you have no other options. You don't have to be paid by Israel to think this. You don't have to be a Mossad agent. I am sure that there are individuals in the Israeli intelligence service in Iran who are trying to press their thumb on this. This. We saw that during the war in June. But this is not something that needs to, like, dollars enough to be transferred into your hand to have that kind of despair. Right. That is something that can just come to you naturally because of these circumstances around you, which are still affected by America. But you don't have to be paid to have those opinions necessarily.

[C]

Sort of, sort of. They're a victim of their own success, the Islamic Republic, in sort of like, repression, right?

[D]

Yeah. Yeah.

[C]

So that's one level. There's another level that I wanted to talk about, which is the kind of like the macro scale of this, which I always talk about, the kind of eating the chess pieces theory, which is this thing that you are a sort of Iranian policymaker. You're playing this kind of shadow war with the United States and Israel, and you're doing very calibrated responses very thoughtfully, and you're making all these chess moves and then they eat the pieces in front of you. Then they act irrationally and recklessly in a way that completely defies you. But I think it has to be said at this point that geopolitically, while they have been playing chess according to the rules of chess, they have not been playing a success, successful chess game, not least because. And I think there's two ways this is kind of true. This is like downstream of Ukraine and Syria, right? Like, Iran invested a lot into assisting Russia with like, drones and stuff in exchange for getting not much back. Russia was then sort of like entirely occupied in Europe and therefore not able or willing to do much. And then you had this sort of Syrian collapse and then Hezbollah. There's a sort of consequence of that. And it's just sort of like these are all sort of. This is a bad to draw. And then at the end of it, you get Donald Trump just to push the whole thing over.

[D]

I think it's been a really depressing for the Islamic Republic, I think, of several sets of years. Had they not, I do believe on some level, had Iran not intervened so strongly in the way that they did in Syria, for instance, that they may have gotten a more friendly post Assad governance after the fact. That because all of those years of investment into Hezbollah, into other militias in Syria, what did that give it? A travel ban on anyone from Iran. And a complete severance of relationship means that all of that stuff goes to waste. And an entire generation of Syrians who grew up during that war are against Iran for the rest of their lives, to say nothing of the death toll that was caused by that war. But I'm so bewildered and almost like appalled by some of the statement that I've seen from certain Iranian politicians about the groups that they funded over the years after October 7, like Zarif in particular, he was on Al Arabi, which is the Qatari TV network, and he was telling the interviewer, like, about how upset he was that Hamas and Hezbollah didn't intervene on their behalf when Israel attacked them in June. Like, after they had been militarily decimated. Yeah, they're busy. And you didn't intervene for them either. Like you did the strikes in October, like in Retal of Rasulullah. But that was also because you were attacked previously. You had to. You delayed, you delayed and delayed and you lost that, you lost that position. And it's this insistence, this insistence that they're being wronged somehow by their allies that really bothers me because they truly don't understand what is to be done in order to preserve the Islamic Republic's long term survival, if that's something you want to be invested in. I mean, after Soleimani's assassination, there was a chance there for Iran to reinvent the Islamic Republic for a younger generation, one in which it was much more focused on anti imperialism as the unifying factor, rather than Islamism, which was a much more popular political ideology back in the, in the 70s. But once that Ukrainian Airlines plane was shot down and the IRGC had to quickly try to cover it up and then had to apologize for the nation, they lost all of that momentum. And there are consistent attempts to remake and cement Soleimani as a martyr in that way is evidence of that failure.

[B]

I think I was gonna.

[A]

This kind of.

[B]

It also goes back to a little bit to what you were saying earlier Nova, about like the inability to reform is they keep on trying to nominate a series of president starmers essentially who are not able to tackle the actual problems.

[C]

Well, yeah, because this is the thing. I don't want to take the kind of pat thing of being like, these people are fanatics.

[B]

Right.

[C]

But I think you have to accept a certain level of sincerity that they mean what they say, that they believe that when, like, if you adapt the Islamic Republic, if you adapt the regime in a way that is maybe more survivable, then it is not to them meaningfully Islamic anymore. And they would rather shoot everyone. Like that's born of like sort of past experience that they've had.

[A]

Yeah, we need Ayatollah to steal. I wrote that down. I was very proud of it and.

[B]

I was trying to come up with.

[A]

A bit for it. I was going to be. I welcome the 12th Imam and I encourage him to go further.

[C]

I think he could do worse as a way of understanding this than this is a sort of like contempt by the old for the young. Right.

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

And it's just like we understand what it requires to run a country like this, this. And they don't and they never will. And we're just going to stay in power forever. And that's the same kind of hubris that has fucked up any number of countries.

[A]

That is actually A really good point. I didn't think about it like this, but actually because one of the things I obviously find quite interesting, this isn't like, it's not a new point, but it's like the impression I get is that they have seemingly pissed, as in the Iranian government, they seem to have just pissed everyone off. They've pissed off, they've pissed off the young people, they've pissed off the people who want to wear bikinis, they've pissed off the monarchists, they've pissed off the royalists, they've pissed off the religious scholars who are really sort of going ham in a way that they haven't done for some time. Right. They seem to have just really, really pissed everyone off. And if that isn't starmerism, I don't know what is.

[D]

I mean, the fundamental issue of the Islamic Republic since the war with Iraq, which is going back decades, is that it's been caught between this conflict, constant vicious cycle in which American sanctions impoverish the country. And then the solution to try to ease the burden on Iranian families and Iranian citizens is neoliberal reform and privatization in order to generate revenue. And then because it's caught in that loop, then when the sanctions get relieved, then they sell off more assets and then they privatize more and they give more of the economy to quasi state institutions or IRGC owned construction companies which then get involved in corruption. And it just kind of builds and it builds and it builds and it's not able to be a unifying force in the same way that for example, Yemen is at the current moment with its own population. I mean, they are in Islamic country, you know, I mean their placard should say that, which I can't repeat on this, on this podcast. But they are a, I mean the President has said this. They're a non ideological, anti imperialist state in that they have incorporated, you know, socialists and communists into that, into that power structure. And they are very dedicated to self sufficiency and building up ways that the country can be solved sovereign. But it still contains avenues for which the population can look forward to. And it is not exclusively limited to a very narrow band of right wing Islamic fundamentalist, for lack of a better term, because a lot of these people aren't necessarily fundamentalist. Yeah.

[C]

And also the corruption, like it strikes me that the sort of level of corruption like baked in, in Iran at this point is such that like, even if you are sort of like regardless of how you feel about Islamism, like you can tell when people are robbing You. Right. And that money is going to like out of the country to Switzerland. It's going into the dark rooms at Berghain.

[D]

Right.

[C]

Like it's sort of like it's going into the sort of museum of ideologies.

[B]

Yeah. When we talk about Europe as well. Right. Europe is also the, it is forever the place that will take your look if you're robbing, if you're someone, you're, you know, you have a say, robbing a state owned industry or whatever. Europe is very happy to talk about like, you know, rules based international order, very happy to host various kind of courts that are supposed to enforce international law. But also it really does need you there at the gift shop.

[C]

Yeah. And Europe is like, we won't just take your money, but we will also, we will educate your children, we will take your horrible Nepo babies and then when they're in their 20s, they'll be able to go to the club here and party here.

[B]

Right.

[C]

And so that's the kind of asterisk you should append to anything that, you know, the EU says or the UK says about how we're sort of concerned about human rights.

[B]

Yeah, it's like that because that's also, that's also part of the museum, by the way.

[C]

Yes.

[B]

The museum doesn't end, I said earlier, it doesn't end at 19:19. It ends. It's still going. It's got exhibits of the 1990s. It's like, no, that exhibits. How about how bad you are. But you really do need to come to the gift shop also.

[C]

I do have one thing, one sort of direction I want to take this in, which is, is I'm sort of a little bit loath to give Donald Trump any credit for this. Right. Because as much as him sort of like withdrawing from the JCPOA is something that's sort of like been an approximate cause of this. Much like with sort of how this is downstream of Ukraine and sort of like Russia sort of like refocusing into Europe. Much of this is down to the hard work, the honest work of the Biden era military and CIA. Right. And State Department.

[D]

Right.

[C]

Like this is all downstream of Obama's Iran policy, Biden's Iran policy of you negotiate, but you have this kind of option of pressure through sanctions. And we are happy with sort of like starving Iranians until this happens. Right. And it's just the kind of like typical cyclical dumb luck Reagan again thing where it's like all of the really like evil shit. That was a bit more thoughtful, was done by Democrats. And then the windfall for that happens under a Republican administration that then gets to take credit for it.

[D]

Right.

[C]

Like as soon as Biden decided he was going to bleed Russia in Ukraine, once that was possible, then this was something that became more likely to happen. And it's just like, I don't know, it's sort of frustrating. This was meant in sort of air quotes to happen under a Kamala presidency.

[D]

Yeah. I mean, they fucking trained for the event. Eventual strikes on nuclear facilities that happened in June under Biden's administration. And when Kamala was running against Trump, she ran from the right on Iranian policy, specifically, constantly pointing to the fact in her program about how when Iran bombed American bases in Iraq after Soleiman assassination, that Trump did not retaliate, even though we did the assassination. Like we started that, that fire. I don't know what this. I don't know, this nonsense. And on the topic of negotiations in particular, Biden really hung the idea of getting back into the JCPOA over Iran and negotiators heads for years, and it never fucking happened. And then when Trump inevitably gets Iranian negotiators to come in and promises some sort of breakthrough, what does it eventually become? It's a trap. It's to say, hey, you actually are going to not enrich any of the uranium ever, for any reason on your own soil. That's going to be in foreign hands or more accurately, in American hands forever, and we'll parcel it out to you if you wanted to. And the Iranians say no to this, obviously, and then they get bombed. And now what's happening is Trump is talking about negotiating with the Iranians again with apparently the foreign minister, talking about how apparently has given a message to the Trump team that he wants to negotiate about the nuclear, nuclear deal. And it's just happening over and over again, even though, and this goes, I think, to the heart of why the Islamic Republic is in the position that it's in, why it is so unreformable and unable to change, and that it keeps falling for it. It keeps believing that there are institutions, that there is international law, and that there are ways in which America can be predicted in some manner or another, or that it has to, more accurately, that it commits to a certain belief system, system that is consistent. And they haven't gotten, like, the idea, just to speak plainly, that America is a rabid dog, like how they would describe America in the 80s. It is a rabid dog. Israel is a rabid dog. And the only actor that I think got this was Yemen, North Korea. North Korea and Yemen. North Korea and Yemen. And what did North Korea do? They built nukes. And regardless of what you think about the dprk, I have many opinions. I'm sure other people have some. That is a. Undeniably. That is a sovereign state. That is a state that was going to go on for a while. Libya, what happened when they gave up their nuclear program? They got regime change within several years, even though Tony Blair came down and said it was all okay. And when Iran, during the war, they were doing this. When they were getting bombed, they had an IRGC general who was 74 years old coming in on TV, TV and saying, no, we're not going to build a nuclear bomb. That's not in our doctrine. And then you. And it led to a situation where people were literally on the street shouting for an atomic bomb. Like, where does that happen? Like, that is the. That is the fucking situation that Iran has placed itself in. And these things, like out of all the things that America can place its finger on can really affect. Iran always had the capability to build a nuclear weapon if was it wanted to. It has that enrichment capability. And the fact that it didn't, that it told its nuclear scientists no even when they wanted to, is going to remain, I think. I think a stain on its record in that it willingly kneecapped itself from maintaining its sovereignty and immunizing itself from a potential war.

[C]

Yeah. And it's one of the things as well where in the sort of subsequent strikes, like whether or not Iran did end up getting its nuclear program slapped out of its hands. Right. Enough people believed that it did to like, permanently, like, fuck its credibility.

[D]

Exactly. I mean, this is. This is why Pahlavi has been able to start being influential, at least part of it in that all for decades, as long as I've been alive, the specter of foreign intervention has hung over Iranian heads. The idea that if Israel were to bomb Iran, if America would bomb Iran, that would be the worst thing that could ever befall the country. It would be uncharted to territory. And then it happens, and now you're in that territory. And now there seems to be no social cost to supporting Pahlevi, who has supported Israel despite the fact that he previously promised he would never support military intervention of any kind. Now he's begging for it. Yeah. All of these things have blown past. Yeah.

[B]

Nova, you talked about this is just playing game of chess, just not very well. They've thought precisely one move ahead.

[C]

Which this is. The thing is you make the Kind of guarantor of your security to Russia because China's not going to do it. They don't give a fuck. There's nothing you can do for them, right? There is stuff you can do for Russia until the moment that their sort of like, you know, guy in his 70s goes insane and starts giving unprompted hour long lectures about how a Ukrainian is actually closer to a goblin than a human. Right? And then all of a sudden you're kind of like, you're not getting the like export air defense that didn't really work that well in the first place. And you're not getting.

[D]

Does Venezuela have those things, air defense systems? What happened with those.

[C]

What happened with those was that they didn't have the money or the expertise or the time to keep half of them connected.

[B]

This axis of resistance is not very resistant.

[C]

Now you can sort of speculate a bit about to what extent that was on prior knowledge. But yeah, basically like.

[D]

You bought them, they're in the country. I don't divert literally any money to connect them to the grid.

[C]

I'm spending that money on repressing more protests. No, I mean, genuinely part of it was they would not disperse their air defense because that made it more of a sort of a coup threat. And it's also like, back in the day, the Soviet Union wouldn't just have sent you the air defense, they would have sent you the guys to operate the air defense. Right? And all of those guys get a vacation in Venezuela. Russia's not doing that because they need those guys in, in Russia or in the Donbass.

[B]

You make the guarantor of your security, you know, this state that's not very good at guaranteeing your security much. Like, again, you make the US the guarantor of your security. They're like, all right, we're taking Greenland though. You know, we will just, oh, you can't ban our pedophile president's best friend's social media app. We will sanction you. We're also the guarantor of your security.

[C]

To say that the US is in any way more rare.

[B]

The block system is not working out for really anybody.

[C]

It's more like, yeah, you get in this kind of block system and then if you're, if you're sort of like going to the US or Russia, then the leader of that country is now insane and is not helping you on that basis. And if you go to China, then you're texting them and they're sending you like, react. Only you're not getting like an Actual text back, you know, you are not.

[B]

What you're getting back is an encouragement for everybody to follow international law and to refrain from violence.

[A]

Beautiful calligraphy, I must say.

[D]

Yeah.

[C]

I mean, this is the thing. I bet Chinese diplomats are lovely, and I bet that if you have a kind of strategic relationship with China, every couple of years, you get to go to Beijing, have a fantastic meal in front of the biggest centerpiece you've ever seen of red roses, and then. Do they actually help you? Not really, because there's nothing you can do for them. So why would they get involved? What possible benefit would it serve? So it's just this. This. This bricks thing is for the birds.

[D]

Bricks, News accounts.

[B]

You know what it is? It's like there was always going to be this. Bricks, but then it turns out there's just. That's really all there is. It's a little bit like that, maybe apocryphal statement by Enver Hoxha. Between Albania and China, there are a billion Communists in the world. You know, like, between. Between all these other states in China, there is a sort of meaningful counterbalance to U.S. power. And it's like, yeah, you could take a lot of those out. The counterbalance is exactly as meaningful.

[D]

There was a painting that I saw just the other day of Enver Hawkes, Hoha, or whatever the fuck is. How do you pronounce his name?

[C]

Hoxha. Hoxha.

[D]

Hoxha, sorry. Albania. And Mao Zedong. And they're, like, beating. And they're like gigantic figures over the horizon. And I'm like, awesome. But I feel like one of these people. I don't know if they're on the same plane, frankly.

[B]

The whole thing is falling apart because a lot of world systems are falling apart right now.

[C]

I mean, the thing that kind of.

[B]

Makes me crazy, people.

[C]

Yeah. And the thing that makes me feel kind of weirdest and sickest about this whole thing, right, Is the current kind of argument that sort of Iranian monarchists are deploying is this regime is obviously untenable. It's like, it's inexcusable. It's gotta go. Right? And then once it has, then it's for all sort of like people of goodwill to come together and figure out democratically what the transition is going to be. Right? And if you go back in the archives, that's the same thing that Khomeini was saying in 1978, you got to get the Shah out. And then, you know, it's going to be, I'm going to go to. I'm going to go to common. I'm going to, it's going to be like governed like France, right Not so did not turn out that way. And if you believe that monarchy will be any different than I have, I don't know, I haven't as to savvy like it's, it's I, I, I would.

[D]

Even say, I mean two things. One, I mean you're correct and you can see that in how Pahlavi is calling on people to do the exact same tactics that overthrew his dad. For people to start doing now like oil strikes, police, you gotta start defecting and then what happens? There are no oil strikes. The, the gas fueled workers who have been trying who have been striking are anti imperial imperialist and do not like him and there's been no defections. In fact it's been so bad that the army has talked about intervening in the protests if they get more violent. And the army very rarely intervenes in that fashion. No, it just doesn't. I mean the IRGC usually does the intervening I should say just in case there's any confusion. But like I would even say that a potential Pahlavi state, God forbid if that even happens or any like post saga public state is going to be probably worth worse than the current one. Not just because Pahlavi is allergic to any sort of democratic allyship even with people who want to work with him, but because Israel is going to take advantage of the situation to make Iran into another Syria if it can. Just before we started recording on the far right channel 14 in Israel, which is a big Netanyahu supporting channel, big Ben GVIR supporting channel, they had a panel discussion where they were talking about what their predictions were for after the Islamic Republic. And their military correspondent goes on and says, I'll tell you, a year and two months ago there was Operation Era of Bashan in Syria. And the operation he's referencing is when 80% of Syria's military capabilities were wiped out in airstrikes in like 48 hours. He says, okay, the Assad regime had fallen. Do you remember what happened 20 minutes after he took off on the plane to Russia? The state of Israel turned Syria into one big shooting range. I really hope that the United States will do this. And that means that Iran's story, as far as I'm concerned, becomes hopeful. A significant strategic threat to the state of Israel will very soon become history. Like even in this fantasy soccer public is gone, right? Khamenei is out, but they still bomb everything into oblivion and make it a incredibly Weak state.

[B]

Yeah.

[D]

That cannot fight any enemies.

[A]

Yeah. This is like, if it's genuine, only so frustrating to sort of see people, I think, even if it's sort of men with best intentions in terms of supporting the protests and stuff, to be like, what do you think is going to happen when the regime falls? It's very, very obvious, not least because we're now at this stage of international relations and news where it just sort of feels like they're just sort of saying the thing. And at no point have the Israelis or the Americans been like, yeah, we're going to restore this very bad dressed monarch into, like, back into his role. His suits are so bad, man. I just want to say that just from the outset, if I can briefly interrupt.

[D]

If I can briefly interrupt. Who's saying. I do want to add on to that in that I knew somebody in university who used to serve Mr. Pahlevi at a kebab shop in the D.C. metro area.

[A]

Oh, wow.

[D]

That man wears tracksuits 247 when he's not wearing that suit.

[A]

Yeah, he does seem like. He does seem like the type. He's just like slob core. And, and yeah, no, but my thing, I made this joke last year which was like, they're not going to restore him to the throne or whatever because look, he's wearing fucking polyester suits. Be serious. And I still think that's true. But the more true point is that at no point have the actual kingmakers in this particular and very specific situation ever said, yeah, we're going to restore the monarchy back to their throne.

[C]

And I have no idea where even Trump doesn't. Yeah. This is one of the only ads, admirable qualities Donald Trump has is his contempt for a kind of emigre. Right. Like he, he can't stand Machado, he can't stand. He can't stand Pahli.

[D]

Right.

[A]

Well, he likes winners. And it's just like, well, if you lost, like, if you had like a monarchy and you lost it, you're like the ultimate loser, right?

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

And this one, this genuinely might be the thing that just sort of like where it just pieces out because of this. Like if, if you were a sort of like Iranian general, you know, you might be thinking about your kind of job position if you were under the age of 70, which none of them them are and you haven't been killed by Israel six months ago, which all of the ones who weren't were then. So I don't know. No one knows.

[A]

Look, all I'm going to say was if I was someone who used AI. I would make an AI image of Khamenei and Pahlavi and I'd put them in the Mangle II kebab shop wearing trackies, but just being like, wow, what a week.

[C]

Ayatollah, it's Monday.

[B]

Holding up the one finger. It's only the first day of the week. So, look, there's something else I want to go back to as well, before we end here, which is one of the things you mentioned early on, Seamus, is that the form that a lot of this is taking is that people are looking at. And again, because this is so disorganized, right, this is the form one bit of it is taking, other bits of it are taking different forms. Maybe there are some, like the spring chicken. Youngest general in Iran, a mere 68, is thinking, hey, Maduro was removed. Pretty orderly. I wonder if I could benefit from that. Like, who the fuck knows, right? But right now it seems like, like, like Pahlavi is, you know, basically just starting, like mini January 6th everywhere, just saying, hey, everybody, go into the town and, you know, mill around. But we're not going to create institute, we're not going to seize anything. It's going to create institutions, but we are going to move places en masse. And you know, that really, I think the unspoken thing here, the spoken thing in some respects, is the thing that will cause that to actually create and a different political system. Is the United States beginning to intervene or the United States or Israel beginning to intervene on their behalf? Right, in the sense of, well, but that. What would turn it from popular discontent into a changed government? Is the United States coming and basically using that as its pretext to do it? United States or its regional allies, Israel, weirdly not Saudi Arabia, is just sitting this one entirely out.

[A]

Who?

[D]

Houthis. They don't want that smoke anymore. They saw it, they didn't want any of it. Honestly, I kind of respect it.

[B]

Yeah. Source and the press is quoted saying since protests began in Iran, Saudi Arabia officials have mostly imposed silence on themselves, with the Saudi crown prince being primarily preoccupied with fixing Vision 2030.

[C]

Listen, it takes a lot of work to bring wrestling promotions and esports to the kingdom. Okay, like, like, he's busy. He's busy. Leave him alone.

[B]

He's busy doing fun stuff. But, like, what are the prospects for a foreign military not just posting about it, but actually deciding to saying, okay, that's it. We're feeling ourselves after the Maduro thing. We're going to all those aircraft carriers that we pulled from the Mediterranean to go into Caracas. We're sending them back to the Mediterranean. We're sending them back to the Strip Trades and Formos. What is the, what are the actual prospects for something like that happening? Because Iran's not Venezuela. It's much further away and it's very, very hard to get to.

[D]

This is a very good question. I think there is a very good chance that America will launch strikes. I think at this point it really seems to be going in that direction by all accounts. And Trump has already bombed Iran, so it's not like it's an unknown variable. You are correct in that, you know, we pulled all our aircraft carriers out and they're not in the Middle east at the moment. So that would mean that a long term military assault in the kind of way that Israel is able to conduct theirs is not possible at the moment. Many more military resources would need to be moved into the reach in order to affect that. But the United States can still bomb Iran very easily and cause a lot of destruction with the kind of technology that it has. Those Stealth bombers, you know, they flew from American shores all the way way to Iran and they went back without being detected. That's still something that is available to the Iranian, to the American government, I should say, if they wanted to say bomb the Ministry of Defense, let's say if they wanted a target like that, or the, the residents of Khamenei, if they wanted to make a statement like that. What they seem to be focused on more than anything during this administration is spectacle, more than any actual, like, physical effect they could have on the government. So, and they can, they can do spectacle. They can easily do spectacle. They can find things to blow up that are especially heinous or notable. Maybe they could try bombing if in prison again like Israel did, and kill 100 people. They can do a lot of things. And even if it might not bring the Islamic Republic to its knees, it can still kill a lot of people, it can still cause a lot of chaos. And it can also embolden protesters on the streets more than anything to stop start burning more things to go out in greater numbers. Because now they've seen that the American president will back up his words with action, which every American before him did not, was not willing to do.

[B]

And I think that actually takes us back to like what the Israeli talk show is saying, the Channel 14 show, which is what the US is most likely to do based on the distribution of their forces throughout the world, is bomb a bunch of things and then more and more. And so their Vision is kind of the same as the Israeli one, which is, well, we can sort of remove it as a society and it's just going to be serious. But with three times the population.

[D]

Yeah, they don't need to throw the stone.

[C]

Hasn't happened yet. Yeah, it's. And it doesn't. It doesn't even have to fall in that way for them to, you know, get something out of it.

[D]

Civil war is ideal. That. That'd be a godsend for the Israelis if they were to do that societal upheaval. The Iran. I mean, one of the things that was such a boon to the Iranian state was that Netanyahu went on television during the war and said, we are bombing all these locations so that we can pave the way for you to seize your freedom. And not a single protest happened because there was this wave of patriotism around to rally around the Iranian flag. Iran was under foreign attack for the first time in decades. And the fact that there are protests ongoing now represents a much bigger threat because now that taboo has been broken, there is no longer a sense you need to rally around the flag. If you are already out on the street, nobody is going back into their homes who is already out doing all these things just because Israel is going to attack or America is going to attack. If they are going out with the expectation that America will support them, that's going to make them keep going back out. So that, that is. That is the threat. If there is a military intervention, which I think we may be going to.

[B]

Well, I suppose it's time of monsters.

[A]

What, again?

[B]

Yeah. Still.

[A]

Sorry.

[B]

Anyway, I do think as well that is probably as good as any of a place to end it. Nova, anything else that we touched on that you want to bring in before we end?

[C]

We living in the nightmare of Joe Biden's dying brain, which is. Which is a bad place to live.

[B]

Yeah, he felt like all of this stuff really should have been happening under him. And, you know, that's, you know, he.

[C]

Set up all the dominoes for it, as did Obama, and. And so now they've all fallen in the dumbest possible way onto the dumbest possible person. Which means it could all be much worse.

[B]

Yep. It's. They're Democrats. They're like the Bene Gesserit. Our plans are measured in centuries. Also like the Bene Gesserit, none of the plans work. That's right. They back backfire in the dumbest way possible. So congratulations. Yet another swing and a miss.

[C]

Yeah, I mean, my sort of like thing is irrespective of any geopolitical sort of broader thoughts about it. I tweeted the other day that I was just like, yeah, you know, I hope the people overthrow the regime, whichever regime. And that's kind of basically where I come down, you know.

[B]

Yeah. Which you know anyone?

[C]

Yeah, just all of them.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

So, Seamus, once again, thank you very much for passing up the opportunity to be on Chinese TV to talk to us today.

[D]

Always a pleasure.

[B]

Always a pleasure to pass it the opportunity via Chinese TV to talk to us today. So we are barring any unexpected. Anything unexpected. We're going to be talking with Ed Zitron again about his experiences at the Consumer Electronics show on Thursday for the bonus episode.

[C]

So do people want more Seamus? Where can they find more Seamus?

[D]

They can go to Seamus malikafsolite.com I write a lot of things there. And they can also listen to Turbulence podcast that is at a website that will be in the description because I can't remember what the exact address is. I believe it's turbulencepod.substack.com that is right.

[B]

So do check out Turbulence for I'd say a lot of more in depth examinations of some of the things we talked about today. Reed Seamus is writing again. I certainly do. That's one of the reasons that I frequently call him whenever I want to talk about the geopolitics politics in the Middle East. And yeah, we will see you in a few short days on the Premium. Bye, everyone.

[D]

Bye. Bye.