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- [00:00]
A
Foreign. Hey everybody. Trends with friends. There was some. There was some really weird retro music playing there. We've got really great crew this week. Thank you everybody for joining. We got Michael Parek, the AI Whisperer, calling in from Houston. We've got Amirabel Spain. We've got Armando Gonzalez, founder of BigData.com announcing a big live product. Exciting. JC Peretz with the monthly charts. Hair still parted in a very bullish upward to the right pattern. Listen, you've got to learn to read the tea leaves. JC will one day part to the left, but not there yet. We have the sellout he sold out to. Where do you buy your suits at? The little man's suits. Anthony Pompliano, the last guy. Listen, I would have thought Phil would be wearing a suit for Anthony Pompliano.
- [01:02]
B
Are you running for governor? That's my question.
- [01:05]
C
Phil wears the suit and then he takes it off to put on the hoodie just to come on this show.
- [01:09]
B
Sometimes, Anthony, I go jogging in the suit and then, you know, sweatshirt.
- [01:13]
A
I've been known to go on to more zooms wearing pants and no shirt.
- [01:18]
B
I got no pants on right now. Yeah, but that's.
- [01:20]
A
Anybody could do no pants. Give us no shirt. Phil. And then Phil Pearlman, the reason we always go long. No, I'm the reason we always go long because of my terrible technical skills. I love. Look at all these nice signs. And everybody's got a thing. Phil, take it away. We got a lot to talk about.
- [01:38]
B
What's up everybody? Great to be here. As usual. As usual. We're gonna start right off the bat. First of all, just like to. We're just gonna go right into bitcoin. We're just gonna. November was an epic month for bitcoin. And we have Pomp here and we have JC here with the monthly chart, the BTC USD monthly chart. We can throw that up. And let's just talk about this candle here. Anthony, why don't you start us up and then we'll get. We'll go to JC.
- [02:12]
C
Yeah, I mean it's up 40ish percent for. For the month. And I think it's a combination of things. First you've got, you know this sideways summer that happens after a bitcoin having kind of comes to an end in November, historically during having years. And so why November? I have no clue. But just that's what we continue to see over and over again. You have Trump getting elected, which obviously is the first kind of pro bitcoin public president and his promise to protect Bitcoin, the right to self custody, bitcoin, he's going to create the bitcoin strategic reserve, et cetera. I think that in general, outside of just bitcoin, you've got people going much more risk on anytime you put a president in the White House that measures the health of the economy through the stock market, it's very good chance that the stock market's going to go up and so all assets are going to go up. And then I also think that it overlays with interest rates coming down and the printing of money. And so you get kind of the macro environment is lining up. And so I really think about this as kind of three things all in alignment. You get from a bitcoin structure standpoint, the having has occurred which has now led a lot more people to buying MicroStrategy, all the ETFs, et cetera. The second thing is you've got Trump coming into office with kind of pro bitcoin policy. And the third is you've got the monetary policy stuff lining up as well. And so 40% is obviously a big month, but if this is a repeat of 2020, we should see from November to March of next year a pretty big run in bitcoin.
- [03:44]
A
Selfishly chiming in here, Pompey, you look good. I knew you when I think I knew you pre marriage, I knew you pre tie. I think you're probably wearing nice socks even today. You've been Miami, you've gone back to New York, you're writing books. No matter which crypto, I'm in a lot of crypto funds, you know, personally and through our Emerging Manager fund. What I find so interesting is it is everybody in the same trade one way or the other? Because every no matter what fund I looked at and I'm getting early reports on November's number, I was up 40%. So it is fun. Everybody that plays this game, I think reason why, and I call it a bit of a game, is it's investing and there really is products. Here is it's very addictive when you can open a statement and see your account up 40% in a month. So part of the attraction is the wildness of the game. Yet it seems like everybody's in the same trade, whether they call it Bitcoin or whether they're saying they're in Solana pretty much across the board. It seems like most people are in the same trades. Anything JC or is this just normal because the industry's so early?
- [05:07]
D
Listen, everything Palm saying is absolutely right. I mean, all you guys are right. But I'll, I'll take, let's take a step back for a second. All the stuff, I mean, granted, cryptocurrencies increase in market capitalization by a trillion dollars last month. A trillion dollars that stick in bitcoin is off the charts. But this is $3 trillion. It may as well be zero. It's, it's a rounding error. So what I would point to is look at Amazon. Amazon looks exactly like this. Look at the Software index. The Software index looks exactly like this. Look at the S and P small set, small cap 600 index. Look at the Dow Jones Transportation average. All of them are the exact same thing. You've got that peak in 21, 22, you've got that dip, that long consolidation. Finally we get back to those highs and, and now we are finally exceeding those highs from the prior cycle. So while all this is great and bitcoin and the Trump and all that stuff is true, no question, I think it's a lot bigger than that. I think it's more the structure of the market for risk assets in general. This just being one example of those. And just that really.
- [06:25]
A
Well, I think you're insulting the purists, but well done.
- [06:29]
D
I have no problem.
- [06:30]
A
I hear what you're saying because you're right. Mag. The mag chart, the mags chart looks the same thing. It's breaking up. But we're. But on a percentage basis is.
- [06:38]
C
It's a percentage, it's a percentage difference. But it is all one trade. Like stocks, crypto, all this stuff is one big trade now. And I think what has ultimately happened is just like risk has been removed from the market. You know, here's an exercise for you. Do you think that we are allowed to have a 18 month bear market in stocks or crypto anymore?
- [07:00]
A
Not with Trump as president.
- [07:03]
C
I don't think with any president. It's the Federal Reserve.
- [07:07]
A
Good point. Since the Fed since.
- [07:10]
C
Right. So you know that if you buy an asset and you simply have to hold it for some period of time, it's going to come back. Then you just start taking more risk. And one of the things that's fascinating to me is like everyone talks about the speed of information, the speed of money moving faster. But if you go back and look at public equities, there's never been a period in US public equities where you bought a stock, bought the index and held for 20 years and you lost money. So you know, there's certain periods you can time, you know, pick whatever. But like any Pick any day, hold for 20 years. You make money in Bitcoin, that number's four years. So you've compressed from 20 to four already. And so it's like it's only going to get, you know, smaller and smaller of a gap. And I think that this next generation understands like there are no 18 month bear markets allowed anymore. If we get 12 months in which we saw in 2022 where prices were coming down, it was pretty much over by the end of 2022, early 2023. And so if that is the timeframe where if you buy an asset, you keep dollar cost averaging over an 18 month period, then you're on the way back up again. Like let's just go to the.
- [08:15]
A
Here's where I'm going to argue with you. And Michael will chime in here. Let me just throw out the bond market. Bear market, longest in history right now. Draw down and bonds dwarf jc, bonds dwarfs and then we'll get quickly to AI but bonds dwarf stocks in terms of supposedly driving the market. And we're in a 50 something month drawdown, the longest ever in bonds. So bear markets are happening, they just haven't happened in risk on assets. JC or how do you think about that? Michael, you got to chime in on this.
- [08:45]
D
I'll push back on a couple of things. What Anthony said about the bear market. I would argue that the deterioration really started in February of 21 and things didn't start to improve until summer of 22. So that's pretty long. Number one. Number two, as far as the stock market always going up over time, let's remember what The S&P 500 is. It buys more of the best companies and kicks out the worst companies. So it's literally designed to go up. While that's the S&P 500 specifically greatest momentum strategy ever. The bitcoin is one asset. So it doesn't have that functionality. You're right on the numbers in this, you know, long 13, 14 year history of the asset.
- [09:24]
A
Right?
- [09:25]
D
So you know you're right on the numbers. I'm bullish. Bitcoin, I'm not saying that, but let's just understand that there's two different things going on.
- [09:32]
A
Michael Parak.
- [09:34]
E
Look, every generation has to relearn lessons in history on their own, okay? So you can rock the chart. Short term, long term, institutional memory, et cetera. History is history. This is emotion driven stuff. I've said this before. Whether it's bitcoin or tulips or any other asset that we think about, these things People have to learn these lessons. We also forget, I think that the next few years are going to be more brittle than the last few years because we do have this post election new administration that is going to do things in a whole bunch of ways that we have not done historically. And there's always action, reaction. I'm intrigued by how many smart people that I know say, oh, you know what, this business of tariffs is just a negotiating ploy that oh, we're just going to threaten to raise tariffs against Canada and Mexico are too big, it's trading partners. And that's okay because it's just posturing so that we can negotiate. Yet this exact thing was done in the 1930s. Look up Smoot Hawley. And what happens is nations also get emotional and they react and they raise their own tariffs because it's all driven by a whole bunch of people in their country. And then action, reaction and all of a sudden you have Global markets down 30, 40, 50%. And that's real. Those risks are real. That is not baked into the markets today. I don't care if it's the S and P or AI or tech or whatever. It's not just today. We saw South Korea of all people places announce martial law for a whole bunch of internal political reasons. The world is doing weird things because actions have reactions. And I just want to point that out. Thank you.
- [11:23]
A
Okay, so, so let's now talk. Listen, we've got bitcoin. Phil, let's, let's go to the AI topic and introduce.
- [11:30]
B
We're going to go, we're going to go to Armando. Yeah, Armando is here from big data dot com. It's a pleasure to have you on. Why don't you tell us what you guys. I mean this is really cool. You were telling me before the, before the program. Why don't you tell us a little bit about what you got, what you guys got going on over there.
- [11:49]
F
Yeah, thanks again for, for inviting me. Look, I think what's exciting in the, in the context of the conversation you guys were having on bitcoin is that the world is getting tougher, right? In terms of dealing with all this information left, right and center, different perspectives, a little bit overwhelming. And what we built@big data.com is a way to assist any person that is looking to better understand markets, whether it's a retail investor or an institutional investor. We've been doing this for 20 years, giving the most successful hedge funds and asset managers in the world the best data to make data driven decisions. And we figured out a way to make those data sets accessible to anyone in a very simple natural language interface which looks very much like the chat experiences that we're all having now with modern gen AI tools. And what's more important is that it's all about the data, right? So we put a lot of effort ensuring there's a trustworthy set of credible sources that feed into this model. It's a curated list that means we've taken the time and care to ensure that the information that is used by the AI is actually useful and more importantly that it has a level of auditability so, so that you're able to trace every answer that it gives you back to the underlying sources.
- [13:10]
A
So explain to me one thing because Michael, this is what's interesting to me. Cause we also invested in Finchat and so Big Data is a little bit different in that I agree with the curating. The reason chatgpt will be dangerous. I don't even think they let you do financial advice is because they know, they don't know what they're scraping in many ways. And a hedge fund can't, or a retail investor probably shouldn't trust something where they don't know where the data is coming from to make investing decisions. So how do you want people to use big data.com?
- [13:43]
F
Well, the first thing is simplicity, right? It literally behaves as a conversation. You're going to be asking complex questions that might require to query or even create code, write SQL queries to a database to retrieve the data necessary to give you that answer. But it all happens in the background. So the user is exposed to a simple natural language conversation. And big data.com goes and fetches all the data from these well defined data sources. It could be pricing data, it could be estimates. It might require to summarize an audio call from an earnings call transcript and produce a summary or deliver it to you in a simple answer like that's, that's the game here, right? And what I think, you know, pushes people back from AI. You know, we, we talk about AI all the time, but if you talk to most people, it's, it's, they haven't really embraced its full potential. You know, some people don't even know how to prompt. And what we're trying to help here is people that are very curious about what the big boys, the big institutional funds have been doing for many, many years. We want to bring that to life and we want to make it easy for them to access.
- [14:54]
A
And how does the experience at Ravenpack? Because Ravenpack's the parent company and selling the hedge funds. Is that what kind of shaped this? Because Michael is our AI whisperer and obviously AI is a big part of the financial industry. Our social leverage has been making bets. Stocktwitz is thinking about how to integrate it properly for our audience. Anthony's now building wealth management firms. So he's using AI. JC uses it in his monthly charts features. Phil is using it to try and grow his hair. And it seems to only not work for Phil. But in a world where you come from, why big data and why now?
- [15:40]
F
Look, I mean, we started working in natural language processing in AI in general 20 years ago. AI is not new, it's just popular. And I remember back then there was a point where we literally took out all the references to AI from all of our marketing material. We just didn't want to talk about AI because people were so saturated with the dot com bust and saying AI is just not going to work, it's not useful. We took it out of our marketing material and the company just got better and better, focusing on solving real problems. And what we realized is that it was all about good data. Garbage in, garbage out. If we were able to source good, high quality data, we were able to generate useful, predictable trading signals for institutional clients that would literally back test and make sure that there was proper return on investment on the data. And these are the most sophisticated quant shops in the world. They don't spend hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars in data if they can't triplicate or 10x that return. So we were fighting in the most competitive space and we had to prove the point that what's great about this.
- [16:52]
A
I want Anthony's take as a media guy. And Michael, you ran research at Goldman for 60, 70 years before this. And by the way, I think we're un aging you with our podcast so Trends with friends, congrats to the team here. We've unaged Mike. He was 95 when he started this podcast. But here's what I say this what's so exciting about this, other than Anthony wearing a tie because it's fucking up the algo in my head, is that we went through this period and I've been building this with Ted Mertz and the StockTwits team and JC we went through this thing where we went Bloomberg, everybody's writing the same fucking article. Before AI, there was no you go to a ticker symbol on fucking Robinhood or Schwab or Etoro and they're literally their whole business is driven by darts, which is daily or whatever that number is. And jc, you know what that dart means? Whatever. They're all trying to drive Dart, which is transaction. But yet all the news, and we saw this with the election, we saw this with everybody who thought they knew every fucking thing you read has been commoditized, right, because it goes through one pipe. And I think he who learns how to prompt and use these products best has such an alpha advantage because it's not just an article that you read. What's the context of the article? What does the article mean in the giant scheme of things to at least point me in the right direction. Right. And that is the unlock for me here. I don't know how to describe it best, but like stocktwitch is rolling out Newswire with sentiment attached, which is our sentiment attached to every article, which gives the article meaning in how a million person audience is reading the same news. That assumes everybody's reading. Michael, how do you see this look?
- [18:44]
E
That's the holy grail that AI can help do what humans have been doing with their amazing brains for a long time. Just a thousand, ten thousand, one hundred thousand million times better. And that scaling, despite all the recent concerns, the AI scaling will happen relatively consistently over there every next, every two years or so, where it basically goes up 5x10x for the foreseeable future. Now what does that look like today? I think the closest example today we have of a service, AI service that gives us some inkling as to what this might look like is Perplexity, which we've talked about on the show before. Why do I bring it up? Because they combine, giving you traditional sourcing of data of what you want to what you're looking for. And every piece of information gives you it gives you sourcing items to it. So it's blending, creating a hybrid of both machine learning, deep learning, generative AI and traditional database stuff. And we are starting to see those kinds of things exponentially get better. ChatGPT now OpenAI has preview which does the reasoning you talked Howard about. Everyone has to become an expert on prompts. Well, the new reasoning products that are coming basically write amazing prompts for you, far better than humans can. So all of this gets better.
- [20:10]
A
I come to big data, I go to. So what would that mean in your world, Armando? How do I become a better prompter? What am I supposed to do when I come to big data.com if the next thing is I don't know what I'm supposed to ask. Just like Google search, right?
- [20:24]
F
So there, I think there's a, there's a certain level of, of expectations that, you know, every system, whether it's, you know, Chad beat or perplexity. In this case, big data.com is going to do something special in the background, right. So that my prompting skills are, are, are, are enough to get the system inspired to do some job for me that I wouldn't be able to do on my own. And one of the best ways to prompt is to be concise, right? You're saying if you want, give me the price and sentiment of Nvidia. Right. More specifically, over the last 12 months, you're giving the AI a very clear instruction and bigdata.com will take that and literally break it up into a series of queries. So on one hand, if it's going to go get pricing data, it's not going to go and run a web search or a Google search for pricing data. It's going to go hit a database that contains ticker information and contains quotes and very recent pricing information about the stock you want. Right? And then if it's going to look for, specifically for sentiment data, you're going to go and hit a Ravenpack database. We've been doing this for 20 years, generating sentiment analysis on a hundred thousand publicly traded securities. It's the most trusted source of sentiment. Hit that database for the sentiment score and then combine it and then deliver it to the user.
- [21:42]
A
So the kind of a front end like StockTwits is doing with AI, it's a front end for our data. You're doing that as a front end for a lot of rave impact data.
- [21:50]
E
And what Armando is describing is this hybrid system that I was describing for perplexity, which is horizontal. Armando, yours, from what you're describing, you're doing it for the financial services industry in a very specialized with great data from a number of proven databases going back decades.
- [22:09]
F
Exactly. And that's the key thing, right, that for AI to be successful, I think it has to become very specialized. And we had to make a decision that if we're going to be good at something, we're going to be good at finance and we're going to get all the right data sets that people that trade and invest, whether it's short term, long term, crypto, equities, doesn't matter, that you can go to one place and get all the data that matters.
- [22:33]
E
Right.
- [22:33]
F
And more.
- [22:34]
E
And the key, key advantage of this is basically addressing one of the key issues of AI that still is with us, which is hallucinations, because these are probabilistic systems, they. They're wrong 20, 30% of the time. By taking the approach that Armando's talking about, you're. You're dramatically reducing the error rates because you're combining actual data with the probabilistic calculations of the. Of the AI side of the equation.
- [23:03]
F
Yeah, exactly. So if I want information about what does like let's say the management team from the top 10 automotive companies in the world, right. What do they think about the economy? I could just say let's look at earnings calls. Why? Because they're expressing views about the economy in a very natural way, and that's a great sample set. Like in the same way as if you would have contacted an expert network to get views on a particular topic. I choose. I have the. The ability to choose that I want earnings calls as the source and I want to grab their opinions from those particular transcripts. Or if I want to get deep into research, I can go to regulatory filings as the primary source and look for anything abnormal. Or compare this 10Q with a previous one and look at any anomalies and let the AI do that work for me. And that's where it Excel.
- [23:54]
A
This is all cat. I mean, for me, in an era of stock, listen, we are indexed to death. I have. I'm mostly indexed. I become who I never thought I would become. And I'm very thrilled about being, you know, direct indexer and using frack in these products. But at the same time, I've never loved the idea of being able to do what JC and Phil is even starting to do, which is the art of doing research and just feeling like you're part of a game where you have some sort of edge. You know, enough to say you don't have an edge, but you want to play the game. And now there's finally tools that allow me to play. If I know how to prompt and use my social network and read the tea leaves. I actually do have an advantage over the institutions. Why? Because I don't have to move the same size as the institutions. Right. And that's where we're seeing with meme coins. Like, the whole thing's a flippening, right? We talk about flippening, Anthony, but the whole fucking thing's a flippening. Meme coins. Flip institutional first to literally someone in Korea being first or someone in. In China being first. So we. We are seeing flippenings everywhere. This is just speed of flipping, Phil. Okay, so that's. That's cool.
- [25:05]
B
The verticalization. The verticalization of a AI is awesome.
- [25:10]
A
Awesome.
- [25:13]
B
All over the financial data aspect. And I think even, like a simpleton like myself can begin to use it, which is really exciting for me to be able to do research.
- [25:22]
A
Everybody on this call is interested in two verticals. Anthony's got his brother Joe, who does sports. It's the world comes down to sports and finance, right? This is what made Yahoo big. This is what makes Twitter big today. They think it's politics. They're wrong. They're going to be very sorry. Elon. That the one thing he's going to be sorry about is that he's not truly into sports and finance, because those are the verticals that have made. What's that?
- [25:47]
F
It's sports and finance.
- [25:48]
A
Sports and finance, right. And that's where real time data matters. That's where fucking everybody gets to play the game. Not just, you know, I want to be president. And everybody on this call is fascinated by both. And those are the verticals that matter. Whether it's crypto, AI, whether it's real time, Twitter, whether it's Spotify. Look at Netflix. What Got their biggest fucking show. Sports. Two fucking old farts fighting in their underpants. Got people to watch Netflix. And real. They broke the model. That's what. That's their. That's their Steve Jobs moment. Netflix, where they said, we're not going to build this, but now Netflix is going to go real time. And what does real time mean? Netflix is going to have Anthony. They're going to have a squawk box, and they're going to have sports shows all fucking day long on Netflix.
- [26:35]
B
All right, Bill, let's go back to Anthony. He had a great quote the other day. And I just want to, like, I. I want to understand what you're saying here, man. Dollars for dollars for transactions and Bitcoin for savings. Like, what are you talking? Like, this is like my. My head went. My head went like this when I read that. What. What are you talking. Explain that to me.
- [26:57]
C
Yeah, I think the promise of bitcoin early on was like, hey, we're going to create a digital currency that people are going to use as electronic peer to peer cash. I mean, you know, literally in the white paper, what the market has ultimately determined is that bitcoin is an amazing store of value, but for a variety of reasons, it's not great to buy things. And some of those things are technical, but many of them are actually outside of the bitcoin system. For example, the regulatory treatment from a tax standpoint of using Bitcoin to buy dinner in the United States, you get hit with capital gains tax. No one's going to spend the bitcoin if you get hit with capital gains tax. But also it's just from a structural standpoint, if you think bitcoin's going to be worth more in the future, you don't spend it today. But everyone thinks the dollars are going to be worth less in the future, so they spend their dollars. And you can see this happening today. People are using stable coins in kind of the digital native world for transactions and they're saving their bitcoin.
- [27:47]
A
Right.
- [27:47]
C
So you, the best framework I have is in the traditional financial system you have three accounts. You have a checking account for your day to day kind of spending. You have a savings account where you basically don't touch it. Then you have a brokerage account where you speculate. And so if you think of in this new digital world, your digital checking account are stable coins, there's dollars, same thing, new technology, form factor, your digital savings account is bitcoin. You just sit there, hold it, don't touch it. And then you've got a ton of speculation that's happening in meme coins and stocks and all the normal stuff that people are doing. And so all we've really done is just say, hey, rather than saving bonds, which are a perennial loser for the foreseeable future and have been for the last, you know, four or five years, we're going to save in bitcoin. So it's, people thought that bitcoin was going to be a threat to the dollar. Instead bitcoin is a threat to bonds. And you see this with micro strategy and others, you know, figuring out, hey, all these bond investors got a lot of money but they don't actually want to buy bonds, they want to get exposure to bitcoin. You see, no young person I know is buying bonds, you know, in size. And so it's just like what we thought was a bitcoin versus dollar is actually turning to bitcoin n dollars and instead it's bitcoin versus bonds. And I wouldn't want to be on team bonds in that comparison over the next, you know, five years. Well, hold on.
- [29:06]
E
Every generation has to. Sorry, go ahead.
- [29:10]
A
There we go.
- [29:11]
E
Hang on, you're coming after bonds.
- [29:14]
C
You're going to have to get a.
- [29:15]
A
Response as a threat to my name is James Bonds.
- [29:19]
D
Hilarious. Bond market is $130 trillion.
- [29:24]
B
Thank you.
- [29:26]
C
But hold on, hold on, hold on. Let's go with that, let's go with that.
- [29:33]
D
It reiterates just how small and tiny Bitcoin is significant. I think I was a bullish catalyst. But market, right? 110 trillion. Bitcoin is 2, by the way.
- [29:45]
E
Every generation is going to have to discover and learn bonds.
- [29:48]
C
Do you, do you guys want to make a bet? Do you guys want to make a bet that the bitcoin market will be bigger than the bond market over time?
- [29:55]
E
Oh my God. I'll take all of this trade.
- [29:59]
C
Okay, so hold on. Just so we're clear.
- [30:02]
D
I think that increases the bond market.
- [30:04]
E
Anthony, with all due respect, there's 21 or 23 million Bitcoin. I mean, come on. Why would you even suggest that?
- [30:10]
A
That.
- [30:11]
E
Because it's going to just does not make sense. It's irrational.
- [30:14]
B
It doesn't.
- [30:15]
D
Unless it's bullish for bitcoin.
- [30:17]
A
Like no, but it's also irrational. He's wearing a T. No, no, hold on a second.
- [30:22]
C
It's. Let me explain some logic.
- [30:23]
B
So there is no logic when you.
- [30:25]
E
Say this thing is a thing 21 or 20. But I just want to please. In your logic explanation, please explain the supply constrained aspect of bitcoin.
- [30:38]
D
I have a real question for bonds.
- [30:40]
C
Are bonds becoming more or less popular in the world today?
- [30:44]
E
More wrong. It's an evergreen.
- [30:46]
D
I have the math, I have the data. The market, the bond market's ever been bigger.
- [30:49]
A
The biggest data, what do we think? No, no, no, no.
- [30:51]
C
Hold on, hold on a second.
- [30:52]
A
No, no, no, no.
- [30:53]
C
The, the bonds, the bonds are actually becoming less popular because the biggest buyer, let's take Treasuries as an example. China And Japan, the two biggest buyers, used to buy 22% of U.S. treasuries. They today buy 7%. Why does it appear that the bond market is getting bigger? It's because stablecoins, bitcoiners are storing their money in those Treasuries. They're now the 15th largest buyer of Treasuries and they're probably going to be top 10. They're literally saving the U.S. treasury market.
- [31:20]
D
Wouldn't the bigger the crypto market, the bigger the bond market? Therefore, using that math.
- [31:24]
C
But the difference is the growth rate of bitcoin is way faster than the growth of the stablecoin market. And so if bitcoin only grows at 20% a year for the next 15 or 20 years only. Well, hold on. It's been growing at 60%. So that'd be a significant decline in growth. It will surpass the current bond market. Because if you think we. There's 21 million Bitcoin.
- [31:51]
A
Right?
- [31:52]
C
And so what would that Put bitcoin's price at. To cross over 130 trillion, it would have to be under $10 million.
- [32:00]
E
That is. That is one of the most simplistic math algebraic equations ever. Oh, I love it.
- [32:07]
D
Come on.
- [32:07]
F
That would be great.
- [32:08]
C
Here's the question.
- [32:10]
A
Do you.
- [32:10]
C
Do you guys think that bitcoin will be worth millions of dollars one day?
- [32:14]
A
I hope so. Low probability on the trade that's underway right now by MicroStrategy and his. The way the trade is working today, it could be infinity. But I can't believe there was a.
- [32:28]
E
$10 million forecast for tulips. That's documented.
- [32:32]
D
Yeah, but tulips had one cycle.
- [32:34]
A
Tulips were great.
- [32:34]
E
Oh, come on. Always with the one cycle.
- [32:38]
C
Bitcoin is 100k and none of the largest pools of capital have even bought it yet.
- [32:43]
D
He's right.
- [32:44]
E
Yeah, because they're smart.
- [32:45]
D
He's nailed.
- [32:47]
C
They're all going to buy it.
- [32:49]
E
They're smart.
- [32:49]
A
All right, Armando, give us a little bit of different take.
- [32:52]
D
Anthony, I'm rooting for you, brother.
- [32:53]
A
I'm with you, by the way. Armando, please, next time you. Come on, shave. So you look like Mark Andreessen. A little more Andreessen on the show.
- [33:06]
B
He's the Spanish. And reason.
- [33:11]
F
I was following up on Anthony's comment, right. And I actually looked up on big data and it says, look, there's declining investor sentiment towards bonds. Right. So there has been a declining. Or it's been declining significantly, which is about 3%. But I think we're confusing two things. One is whether the popularity of the assets is growing or falling.
- [33:32]
A
Right.
- [33:33]
F
Which I think is true. But the mechanism that bonds serve in the market is just unreplaceable. Thank you.
- [33:40]
E
Thank you.
- [33:41]
F
And so I think we just need to ensure that we're talking about attention or we're talking about practicality and what they're meant to do.
- [33:49]
E
And we're not just talking about US Bonds, we're talking about global bonds.
- [33:52]
C
That bonds serve is a guaranteed way to lose money. That's the only thing bonds do. Bonds have not outpaced true inflation, which is just the.
- [34:00]
A
That doesn't mean it's broken. That doesn't mean it does.
- [34:03]
D
Of course, the institutional buyers of those bonds have different objectives and different intentions.
- [34:08]
A
They'll get. They. They worry about getting fired more than they worry about being.
- [34:12]
C
And they're going to. And guess what's happening right now? They're all starting to get fired because they have unfunded liabilities, because they've been buying fixed Income that hasn't outpaced inflation. They're screwed. And so now what's starting to happen is it started with one. Remember we managed the first fund where public pension funds gave us money to go buy bitcoin. They're up 20x, like 8 to 18, 20x, whatever. Some huge number, literally. Guess what happened? More started to buy.
- [34:36]
A
More started to buy it. Michael. Stroking.
- [34:38]
C
I talk to these people all the time and guess what they're saying to themselves. We cannot continue to invest 40% of our portfolio in fixed income because the fixed income is not driving a higher return than true inflation. And what has happened over the last five years is the world woke up and they realized we're being lied to. CPI is wrong. It's calculated like by idiots. And instead the true inflation rate is the change in money supply, which is averaging about 7 or 8%, which is exactly what the S and P has been going up. And if you take away the change in the money supply, the stock market's flat.
- [35:12]
E
Anthony, please.
- [35:13]
C
Bitcoin is the only asset that is outpacing inflation professionally.
- [35:18]
E
You cannot say something like CPI is done by idiots. We've got to have respect. Guys, guys, you can, you can disagree with the methodology.
- [35:27]
D
They know we know.
- [35:29]
E
No, guys, guys, respect every institution, good or bad, every entity, every human being deserves respect.
- [35:38]
B
Okay?
- [35:38]
E
If you don't agree with the methodology.
- [35:42]
C
If you send people into the grocery store with a tablet and you manually input prices when there's prices available on the Internet in real time, you're an idiot. You should be called out and we should do something better. And that's the problem, is everyone wants to just say, oh, we have to listen to what they say. The Internet is proving.
- [36:01]
A
Hang on, hang on. Two things can be true. Two things can be true. There. The. I truly believe that the c, the CPI index can't get better because they're not going to be able to hire good people in the world that we live in today.
- [36:14]
D
We're going to make our own. We're making our own.
- [36:16]
A
Make it up yourself. It's like, it's like truth. Is there inflation. Inflation's in the eye of the beholders. And what your net worth is worth, that's true right now. The richer you are, the lower the inflation seems to be. And people just. This is my problem with economics in general. It's fun to have these conversations and get heated because it's all fake. Because let's be honest, we went to fucking school in the 70s and learned economics and it was like guns and Butters. And it was elastic and inelastic supply. And guess what? All that stuff is true. But it's still in the eyes of who's reading the data and then what you do with the data when you read it. And this is what makes markets that were just so infuriated over these points. Like comparing the bond market to the potential of bitcoin wiping out bonds. So it was a fun discussion. I got to move it on to something else.
- [37:06]
B
We're going to move on.
- [37:07]
A
Great role there. You owe Mike.
- [37:10]
C
In my job.
- [37:11]
A
You owe Mike. You owe Mike. 12 Xanax. Can we have that transferred on the blockchain? Can you move Xanax on the blockchain? I'm sure he just moved him. He just. He. I saw. I think Venmo. You just venmoed him. 12 Xanax. All right, Phil, what's next? That is a great.
- [37:27]
B
We're going to move on. I'm going to get the last word here. I'm the dumbest guy in the room. And the only thing I understand is that all you have to do to get bitcoin right is treat it like a Vanguard fund. Hodl. That's what the kids used to say back in the day. You just buy some and you hold it. You don't go crazy and you just buy it and you hold it for a really long time. And it will get killed and then it will come back and it will make a new high. That's a past behavior. There's no guarantee it's going to happen again. But it's been a great strategy. Just like the VTI or the voo, Vanguard sb. We're gonna move on, Michael. Okay. No, I know the next.
- [38:06]
A
Okay, we got.
- [38:07]
B
We gotta move on. We got. We're so far behind. We got like 10 other things to talk about.
- [38:11]
E
Just Warren Buffett a credit as the ultimate Hodler.
- [38:14]
A
Okay. He's great.
- [38:16]
B
Warren Buffett is a genius building. We're building on top of Warren Buffett.
- [38:22]
E
Young kids invent hodling. That's what my point is.
- [38:25]
B
Munger. Munger had some of the most bad mouthing of crypto ever. Like we. We could get into that one day. But let's move on. Monthly charts, we have so many great. We're going to skip a couple things. But monthly charts, we got J.C. here. It's a third of the month. The month ended last week at the end of last week. And we have some incredible monthlies because the market, like you were saying earlier, J.C. it's not just bitcoin. That has these crazy November candles. We have this all over the market. Why don't you walk us through some of your favorites that we have up here?
- [39:03]
D
Yeah. And again, it's not necessarily just the November candles, but where specifically they are. When people are like, well, JC candlesticks and candlesticks, it's where are these candlesticks located? That's why when I see something like Bitcoin, of course I'm bullish. I mean, that's a bullish pattern, that's a bullish development. But the bigger pick, the bigger thing here is that you're seeing this across markets. It's just a common theme. So look at small caps, look at Amazon, by the way, the small cap 600 index making new all time highs and the Russell 2000 index making new all time highs. One of them requires companies to be earning money. So the S P600 has a prerequisite where you have to be earning money. The Russell 2000 will let anybody in. No discrimination at all. You can lose as much money as you want as a company. You're included and they look the same because the market doesn't give a about your fundamentals. This is an asset allocation situation. These indexes look exactly like Bitcoin. Look at the Dow Jones Transportation Average. Look at Amazon, look at the software index igv. They all look exactly the same.
- [40:09]
A
Meta Today.
- [40:13]
D
Anthony, I want to ask you this question. So 10 years ago when I was orange pilled, I looked at Bitcoin like another currency, like dollars, Euro, British pounds. Because I was dumb, I didn't know any better. I just assumed, I just included it with my currency work, right? And then Ethereum came and Litecoin and others, and then we had a few cycles and now you have a zillion coins. So over the years we transitioned from viewing cryptocurrencies as actual currencies and started treating them more just like stocks. So we look at cryptocurrencies, a $3 trillion asset, 3.3 as just another industry group within tech. So within tech you've got semiconductors and software and hardware and cryptocurrencies. And if, if we view it that way, cryptos are not the largest industry group and certainly not the smallest. But somewhere in the middle you've got bitcoin as the bellwether of that particular industry, like Nvidia is to semiconductors, for example. And then the altcoins are really just other stocks in that group like AMD or ASML or whatever.
- [41:17]
E
Right.
- [41:18]
D
That's how we treat it. And thinking of it that way. It's really been beneficial for us, not just from an execution standpoint in crypto, but thinking about it from a more macro perspective. Curious to hear your thoughts. Stepping aside from bitcoin taking over bonds, more in the, in the today sort of sphere.
- [41:36]
C
So let's separate out bitcoin and then the rest of crypto. I agree with you that the rest of crypto is basically like a new version of tech bets, you know, stocks, etc, and that's how people are treating them. And I could even make the argument that although most people in the traditional market think public markets are less popular because we went from 8, 000 public companies to 4,000 and more go private than go public each year, I would argue that public markets are more exciting and popular today. It's just that all these kids went and they're playing in the public market of crypto and they don't care about your legacy assets. And so there's been an explosion in the public market. It just isn't in your traditional market. But speaking about bitcoin particularly, the best way that I can describe what's happening is boomers had housing, millennials have bitcoin. Let me, let me explain this. Something like 80% of millionaires in America made their money in real estate and most of those people made it in their primary home. So what they were able to do is they were able to buy their home and then they had a 30 year mortgage on it and they slowly over time went and they paid off that mortgage. Today, 40 to 43% of all homes in America don't have a mortgage.
- [42:38]
E
And then those boomers lived, lived in those homes and the kids are living in their parents homes.
- [42:43]
C
Hold on a second.
- [42:44]
D
So they paid and they paid double what they tell you they paid for because they're not climbing that interest.
- [42:48]
F
Thank you.
- [42:49]
C
True that they, that that was how. That was their wealth generating thing.
- [42:53]
A
Right. We're telling me I got to worry about Max and Rachel. Is this a hidden, is this a.
- [42:56]
C
Well, here's the thing is a bunch of these millennials are now priced out of the housing market.
- [43:01]
A
They literally can't afford a home, probably the biggest problem.
- [43:04]
C
And so what do they do? They're generating asset. Their wealth generating asset is to slowly buy $5, $100, $1,000, $10,000 of Bitcoin dollar cost average into it and hold it for a long period of time. And the real estate of their primary home, yes, they can't live in the bitcoin, but that's not what they're solving for, what they're solving for is I'm getting smacked with the devaluation of the currency. Historically, my primary home was my insulation from that, and that's where I generated all my wealth. If I can't buy a home, well, what other asset can I buy? And so bitcoin is a huge portion. The whole, like, buy 1, 2% that everyone talks about. They're just saying that to cover their ass. Most young people, very high percentage in bitcoin.
- [43:47]
F
But Anthony, like, I mean, and to JC's point, like, if, if you consider crypto just another industry in the equity market, right. I think it's perhaps an oversimplification, right? Because stocks have so many different factors that drive them, right? It could. It's fundamentals, it's sentiment, it's their products, it's how the market is changing. And crypto doesn't have the same characteristics, Right. There's a very macro kind of geopolitical, to some extent, set of factors that everyone tends to follow. So there aren't that many opportunities to really find that alpha, right?
- [44:21]
C
There's more, there's way more alpha in crypto than in public markets because you have way more volatility.
- [44:26]
D
Yeah, of course.
- [44:27]
F
But it's all one dimension, right? That's, that's the main problem.
- [44:30]
C
Oh, no, no, no. Because, because the thing that most people. So let me give you a good example. Everyone's like, bitcoin doesn't have cash flow, right? So if you look at it from a traditional sense, yes, it doesn't have a centralized cash flow. But if you look at it from the perspective of the miners who are running the network, they're getting the transaction fees, et cetera. It's a decentralized thing. If you take all their revenue and put it together, you can then start to back into what is the value of Bitcoin, right? That's the transactions that a Visa or whoever would get as normal revenue. It's just the decentralization makes it look different, but there's still revenue going through the system. It's just being captured by a disparate group.
- [45:03]
F
That's very different, right? That's revenue. I'm talking about alpha, right. If there is a proper, like, excess return available, right. To be found, or if there is really an idiotic factor that is driving that particular stock to lead it to underperform or outperform, like that's what we're looking when we invest in equities and we have so much variety and diversity to pick and choose and come up with a strategy that can even hedge to some extent across different industries. That's the role that crypto plays.
- [45:30]
A
And that's just not going to change. That's not going to change. Crypto just becomes another asset class. It's another asset.
- [45:37]
D
Yeah. But you can be creative. Like, for example, Anthony, I think you'll like this. We have a sector rotation model where it's 11 sectors in the S&P 500. Right. So it's 11 ETFs, and we added a 12th, which is iBIT.
- [45:49]
F
Right.
- [45:50]
D
And then so, based on momentum and relative strength, we own the best three sectors. If bitcoin is one of the best three sectors, then we own the best four sectors.
- [46:00]
B
Right.
- [46:00]
D
That's just a creative way that we basically built in bitcoin into our sector rotation model to add some extra juice. And then people are like, well, that doesn't count because you outperform me because of bitcoin. Yeah.
- [46:12]
B
So, hey, jc, in terms of sectors, what market cap is bitcoin? Is it like. I mean, is it larger than any. Is it larger than utilities or whatever?
- [46:22]
D
It's 2 trillion. No. Right.
- [46:25]
B
But I mean, I mean, in terms of the sector. In terms of the size of the.
- [46:29]
A
Sector, it's bigger than. It's almost up there at Facebook.
- [46:35]
D
Utilities, materials, Phil, they can never scale. Like marine shippers. Like there's. Right.
- [46:41]
B
So it's larger. It's larger than the total market cap of all publicly traded utilities presently.
- [46:47]
D
Yeah.
- [46:48]
A
Which brings me. Which brings me to a complete question that Michael and Amanda were gathered that run companies, and now Anthony, you. Your own media businesses. I got to flip this because I want to talk about more stuff and trends. Is this trend of venture capital. I got to bring it back to the job that I do every day and how fucked this industry looks. I'll just be quickly here and explain how everybody's now got this mindset of having. You got to have a $5 billion outcome, and we have to get back in the mindset. Not everything that happened in 2006 in this network effects world has network effects, right? We had this miracle moment of network effects, and bitcoin was part of that. 2010 was still part of the social media explosion, right? And now we've got those companies in orbit, which are the Magnificent Seven. They're in orbit, right? It took all this money, all this energy. There's, you know, as Elon Musk would talk about orbit, all this energy to get these seven fucking magnificent companies in orbit. They're fucking interplanetary they're having wars that we'll never understand. You think they're dead because they're not. Even the government can't hurt them. The US government is literally going after Microsoft and Google and yeah, it slowed them down a bit but it's not like gapping the company in any real way, right? They have just so much orbital power. So underneath this is where I saw JC's chart that was so interesting to me and how it applies to VC is the small cap fundamental and the small cap non fundamental. They're both working. So in a world there is never. I've never seen a market that has more working. And we can have Riley on to talk about trends with no friends, companies you've never heard of that have tripled. Mmyt, which we talked about.
- [48:35]
B
He's got a great one coming today.
- [48:37]
A
Which we talked about for months, which is India's version of priceline or booking.com is up 400, is up 300% since we talked about it and still no one knows what the fucking company is. So there is alpha, even though Bitcoin is this weird thing where it's like Coca Cola and still has this incredible alpha and that just could become from the volatility and everybody watching it. Whereas there's all this other alpha Anthony that impresses me and Trends with Friends where has no followers, right? And I think we have to as investors and Trends with Friends talk about things that are. They may not have the fucking spectacular. And this is A Tribute to MicroStrategy and Michael Strategy as the Ben and the Mill guys column instead of MicroStrategy because it really is just Michael Saylor's strategy is the garnishing of attention in a world of network effects that Michael has pulled off is fucking unreal, right? The fact that in a world where he doesn't probably have to use social media, he is now his own media entity because of this one trade. And that's still the fascination of this market. We can have these arguments about bonds being bigger than this and whatever than that, but we now have a world too that doesn't have network effects. And that's an interesting world too, right? And that's the world of stuff that we talk about the trends with no friends and we're seeing it in the VC world. So for example, nuclear power, there is no network effects tied to a product and the TAM and the whatever because the network, the market hasn't even been built yet and there's no real way to get network effects until products are built. Et Cetera, et cetera. And will network effects be the same when these next new companies come to market? Because you can't grow something the same way anymore. That happened in a free money network effect era. So we really live at this interesting time. And that's JC's chart, which is small caps without earnings, small caps with fundamentals both working. This is really a fascinating moment. And then, of course, Bitcoin.
- [50:48]
F
Howard, is it perhaps that attention is the new currency, Right?
- [50:52]
A
Well, meme coins is part of that. Right? So let me give you another anecdote from Thanksgiving. My son will be the last person to ever trade a stock. Now, I say that hoping that I'm wrong. And that's the bottom. But I sat with him this weekend, Max. We were talking about meme Coins. He's not interested in. Right. He's interested in sports. He's interested in golf. He's interested in his girlfriend. He's interested in, you know, red Zone. He's interested in vaping products. He's fascinated, but he's fascinated by her, not the market. Then when, then we get started talking about meme coins immediately was like, what are you? He knew all the memes and he knew what we were talking about for the first time. Right. Like a hippo and peanut. And he literally was in an investing conversation without knowing anything about investing because he knew the products and he didn't have an appointed opinion on if they're going to go higher or lower. But it's dragging another generation in. And so attention is a huge part of this. We had to get on board at Armando and Michael. We know this. We had to go to the newspaper, get it once a day with stale price quotes. And that took a lot of heavy lifting for you to get interested in the market. There are now these hooks because the market is a game. The hooks are everywhere from memes to Michael Saylor to Anthony in a tie to Riley Rosenbi talking trends with no friends. So I think that is the most exciting thing about trends with friends is that there are millions of entry points and millions of hooks that have been set up. So, I mean, that's really why I think the market's doing what it's doing. We've never had this perfect storm of degeneracy and a wall of worry happening at the same time. So markets climb a wall of worry. That's an old statement. Jc, how far does that statement go back? The beginning of the market?
- [52:43]
D
Yeah, I mean, that's something that. It's a characteristic of a bull market, is people saying that.
- [52:47]
A
Okay.
- [52:47]
E
At least as old as the bond market, which was invented in Mesopotamia in 2400 BC.
- [52:53]
B
What do they know?
- [52:55]
A
Michael, let's be honest. Mesopotamian is no different than the CPI people of today.
- [53:00]
E
Just the order of people.
- [53:02]
A
All right?
- [53:04]
B
Nothing will ever kill debt. There's always going to be people who are spending.
- [53:09]
E
Thank you.
- [53:10]
B
More than they make. Okay. I want to go to something really important. Anthony. This is another type of investment. And, you know, I was just thinking about this. I mean, your book is brilliant, dude. Great respect to you. The greatest investment that we can ever make is parenting. And you wrote a beautiful book that is a brilliant idea. It's called how to Live an Extraordinary Life. It just came out.
- [53:37]
A
What?
- [53:37]
B
It came out a couple months ago, right?
- [53:39]
A
Yeah.
- [53:39]
C
I should come on here all the time. You guys are, like, way too nice. This is like, just.
- [53:43]
B
Dude, I'm a nice guy. That's the thing. I'm the nice guy.
- [53:49]
E
My favorite is. My favorite bullet in his book is our. Your intuition is your algorithm because he's bringing in AI as far as I'm concerned. I love it.
- [53:58]
A
Yeah. Yeah.
- [53:59]
B
This is only the second half of the chapters of the book. There's a whole other part of it. It's so beautiful, man, what you did and your explanation behind it. Here's my one. We're only going to cover it for, like, a couple minutes because we have other stuff we're going to go over. We're going to talk a little bit more about AI and energy, and then we're going to do trends with no friends. Wiley has an awesome one.
- [54:16]
A
Okay.
- [54:16]
B
But we're going to. I just want to ask you this question, and so go out and buy this book, by the way. And I don't just recommend anything. I only recommend great books. Go out.
- [54:26]
D
Buy it.
- [54:26]
B
But let me ask you this question. What is the unifying theme of this? What is the one idea that sort of runs through the whole book or sort of binds the whole thing together?
- [54:38]
C
Yeah.
- [54:40]
A
You know, rule number one, to live an extraordinary life. You don't chew gum in an interview. What do you fucking.
- [54:44]
B
What do you have?
- [54:44]
A
Monster. You put that under the desk. We're dealing with Michael.
- [54:51]
B
Also, don't go into politics, bro. I see how you dress. Just don't. Just don't do it.
- [54:56]
A
What's your number one thing?
- [54:58]
C
So if you think of. Whenever you write a book like this, you can't give advice to everyone. It's no one size fits all. So it's like, you know, first of all, an extraordinary life Is like, whatever your version is may be different than mine. And remembering that's important. But I think there's. We live in this world where everyone is told constantly, all the time. You have no agency. You are a victim. The world happens on you. Your decisions don't matter. It's just kind of like wherever you're born, however you live your life, that is going to dictate everything around you. And I think the common theme in the book is, like, that's wrong, right? Is you do have agency. Everything that you get in life comes from your decisions. And one of my favorite letters that is also probably the one that people hate the most who want to critique the book is that luck is not real. And it comes down to this idea of, like, you know, me and Howard can walk across the street. We both can get hit by a bus and lose our legs. And if you come into the hospital and you ask Howard, like, hey, what happened? He's like, man, I was so unlucky. I was walking across the street. I lost my leg. But if you then come to my bedside and you say, what happened? I say, I'm so lucky to be alive. Same event, same outcome, but it's all how you perceive those events. And so it really just reminds you that people use luck a lot of times to describe things that they're uncomfortable talking about or that they can't explain. But at the end of the day, it's like your outcome in life is solely determined by the decisions that you make. And so if you have agency, then it puts all the responsibility on you to go and get what. What you want out of life.
- [56:17]
A
Just one quick example of agency is, you know, young kid in Phoenix last week was hit. You know, I ride. I'm very careful about how I ride. I. I take full agency every day. I hear stories. I hear horror stories because riding is dangerous. Now you got waymos on the street. I've been known to text. I'm ashamed to say it, but, like, you've got. We've all got to be more careful on both ends of the wheel here. But you have a friend who's driving on Osborne. Not a friend, sorry. A friend. All the young guys in town knew this kid, and he was hit by a guy who had a stroke. He's riding his bike in a bike lane, but the guy stroked out in a car and hit that kid. It's the same thing. You're telling the story. I make these decisions to ride, thinking that it's for health and everything else, but the risks are Insane. And so every decision you make, you have to think through these things. Whether it's, we call it the degeneration economy bill with vaping, with gambling, with all this stuff, you do have agency. And to live these extraordinary lives you got to run these scenarios out in your head and you don't have to be get caught up in the obsession of every decision. Anthony. But yeah, there's, there's, it's a good title. I'll fucking give him that.
- [57:30]
B
This guy, you're a dad. Go out and buy the book. If you're not a dad, go out by the book for somebody who's a dad and give it to him as a present. Okay, let's move on because we're going to cover, we're going to go over and we might lose a couple of people off of here. But Riley, hold on. We're going to get to you. Michael, great quote from Barron's that I wanted to ask you about. And from to my mind, one of the most interesting investable aspects of AI is the energy sector and what we're seeing there in nuclear. And then also great article in Barron's this weekend. You just wrote about it. You pulled this quote out, which is the money quote. Over the past decade the US pumped out 60% more more oil a day with 40% fewer workers. Go.
- [58:23]
E
This article is a great example and I would recommend everyone who's interested in markets and AI read it in full. There's a lot of detail here. That quote, it basically tells us that AI, just like other technology over the last 60, 70 years, increases efficiencies of every industry and that's the whole economy. There are a lot of forecasts. Goldman Sachs has a forecast that in the next 10 years AI will add another 7,8% to the global GDP which is about 110 billion. We look at it horizontally. This article says just in the oil and energy industry, specifically in the U.S. companies are leveraging not just technology but AI using data, et cetera, to find oil a lot more efficiently and do it with far less people. Which doesn't mean that we're going to hire less people. It means more people, we'll hire more people for doing other things, but the efficiency through the technology is just mind boggling. There's another article, a quote in this article which is also very interesting that they expect that in the next few years AI technology being used to find gas and oil is going to add another Kuwait, which is one of the biggest oil countries in the world, just in the US and not to mention these technologies being applied everywhere else. So basically it's saying that it talks about what I think about as enterprise surplus for the economy, that we are doing more with less and as a result we do far more. We're doing it in this vertical of energy. We're going to do it in so many other verticals. Education, healthcare, everything in the s and P500. And that's how we're going to see these five 10% growth numbers on top of today's GDP on a global basis. It'll take time, but this is an example. This is not flashy. It's very, very boring things. You'll read the article. There's a guy with 15 screens and he controls over a thousand oil terminals just from his terminal because of all the computers and the sensors. It just explains how technology and now with AI probabilistic analysis on data gives you so much more ability to do things far more efficiently. We're going to see it time and time again and these are things that are not going to be popping up on our screens like ChatGPT, et cetera. These are things that'll just work in the background and all of a sudden we'll look at, oh my God, S and P is a lot better. Oh my God. The bond market is actually a good place to invest because, you know, these things are financed with leverage and debt and so on. And these are real productive assets. And I want to keep that in mind relative to whether you're hodling bitcoins or gold or anything. There's a place for that in your portfolio, but it's not the whole portfolio. That's the thing I wanted to analyze and I wanted to highlight this energy article as just an example of one big vertical that we're in the US just in the Permian basin. We've got great data on how AI is helping move the needle from a productivity point of view.
- [61:17]
A
And the data center stuff, I don't know, we probably don't have time, but we have to get it next week to the data center stuff like the NEO stuff like stock that's now deploy AI with their own data and ravenpack using big data.
- [61:34]
E
Correct.
- [61:35]
A
How this stuff happens quickly and where everything's hosted and the energy. I don't know.
- [61:41]
E
Correct. I just wrote about the new clouds yesterday. It's a great.
- [61:44]
A
I was just reading it, Mike, and I think we got to cover it, but go ahead.
- [61:48]
F
Yeah, no, I really like, Michael, that you bring up like these real practical examples, right. Of where AI is truly adding value because I think that's what we need to see. Right. We need to see exactly where. When we say, oh, it's about cost efficiency and productivity. Exactly where. Tell me where it's really changing things.
- [62:05]
E
Right.
- [62:05]
F
And the more data comes out across industries, it's not just the oil industry.
- [62:10]
E
But it's across in the finance industry, what you're doing.
- [62:13]
F
Yeah, exactly.
- [62:14]
A
Look at cboe, cme, ice, nasdaq. They're just old data companies and they're going up because we're going to be able to extract things from these companies. Or they are. They own more than they think they own as well.
- [62:26]
F
It's like Reddit.
- [62:27]
A
Reddit's at 27 billion. Why? Because every second of the day millions of people for free and same with stock twits and Twitter are inputting of their own free will. Mostly stuff that no one else.
- [62:41]
E
River of data goes on for long time, forever. River of data.
- [62:46]
F
Content is king. Still content.
- [62:48]
B
Armando, great point, because everybody is still only talking. I mean we're having this conversation now and to their credit, Barron's wrote that article. But 95% of the conversation that's going on still about AI is ChatGPT and Microsoft and Apple and their new intelligence, whatever they're calling it, and Google, it's still that circle and it's going to take a long time and that just spells opportunity.
- [63:18]
A
You'd be surprised. What I'm saying is if you read the tape and I've been talking about this on my, on my newsletter and I call it real. I'm learning in real time. I mean, and smart people do read me, is is Real Time 2.0 is like Netflix and Spotify were thought of as subscription companies, right? Over Netflix dead body were they going to do live events just like Apple used to say, over my dead body are we going to do a certain type of phone? And then shit happens that even Steve Jobs couldn't understand, which is now. And you see you're wrong. Phil only. But one thing is that people aren't pricing this in Netflix went from trading at a certain model to trading at a different model. We can all be saying it hasn't happened, but the market priced in a new multiple for Netflix overnight or over. And now everybody, they're using an old way to describe Netflix and they don't understand that Netflix now has 24 hour ability to do live programming. Right?
- [64:17]
B
You are still so early Spotify.
- [64:21]
A
Spotify and Netflix are training below its IPO price.
- [64:25]
B
Spotify ready. Those are 8, 9 and 10. We're not at 2. I mean, there's 2, 000 companies in Russell.
- [64:33]
A
I hope you're right.
- [64:33]
B
And there's 500 companies in the S&P. 500. Those are 8, 9, and 10. So there's still 11 through 500. That where it's that priced in. Okay, let's move on to Riley. But we do agree. And by the way, I hate to compliment you, but you're so. Your writing is so far ahead of the curve that it's ridiculous. You're talking about things that, like, we're going to look back a year or two years from now and it's going to be obvious, but it's not obvious to most.
- [65:00]
A
It is obvious. I'm.
- [65:01]
B
I appreciate it.
- [65:03]
A
If you look at stock prices, meaning Reddit was training. We were making fun of it because, oh, they dumped it on the public. It's trading below its IPO price. Guess what? Probably even the core investors sold off their Reddit stock because they finally could do it. Just like, you know what I'm saying?
- [65:19]
B
And then you remind me of the time that when Facebook underperformed and then they got mobile and all of a sudden the stock shot up and everybody was like, okay, it had its move. And now you look at it now. So, you know, Reddit, Spotify, these companies have, you know, according to my theory, way more room to run. Okay, let's get Riley in because we're 10 after the hour. Riley, you have a great one.
- [65:47]
A
Oh, yeah, Transfer.
- [65:49]
C
No, friends, we do have a good one today.
- [65:50]
G
We're actually going to do a little bit of a slam dunk, you know, tip our own hat.
- [65:56]
B
But take a victory lap, bro. You earned it.
- [65:59]
G
We're looking at CREDO Technology Group here, and Credo is an AI data infrastructure equipment provider with a thousand followers on StockTwits. We first mentioned this company back in May when it reported its Q4 2024 earnings report. You can kind of see it's the. It's the earnings candle there next to June. At that time, the Stock had about 500 followers on Stocktwits. Today, the stock is up 50% after last night's earnings. They reported 64% revenue growth. And the street is absolutely loving it. I do want to ask Michael on this one, though. Are you familiar with this company? Kind of within the AI infrastructure industry.
- [66:45]
E
This is not one I've spent a lot of time on, but it's amazing what they did. Yeah, it sounds like, what with their results.
- [66:51]
A
It's a Taiwanese fact. I mean, what's amazing about this Ghost Armando what we were talking about what everybody in Bitcoin's missing out, not maybe because they can afford to miss out on this, right? The people that are getting crypto right now, they don't care about 100% move in something that would take three minutes in the meme market. But you know, this is a tribute to the fact that what JC was saying, there's a whole market of stuff that's working for, you know, this wall of worry meets technology advance meets new political movements meets liquidity meets. I mean fuck, there's so much breadth like an inch below the surface of the. But yet, the but yet magnificent seven broke to all time fucking highs today.
- [67:44]
E
No, I agree on your point. This is absolutely part of the AI infrastructure move. There's dozens and actually hundreds of companies around the world that are building or bringing all components and this is one of them. And because you got the big meg seven that Howard's talking about is spending, you know, collectively 40, 50 billion dollars a quarter. Everyone gets a piece and they're getting a piece.
- [68:10]
A
I think what's interesting about this data, Armando and you guys, we should talk about this sidebar after Armando with ravenpack. But this is kind of using stock twitch data, but like in a negative fashion saying by looking at our data, what shows up. And so we match all time highs and price with companies that have very few social followers which no one else can do because we follow tickers and, and occasionally it just stands out like it's in the right sector, AI earnings momentum, yada yada yada, it breaks out up to 30 bucks, enters our trends with no friends portfolio. Now it's doubled, still has no friends. So you still have to do your work because now it may just be that it's maxed out in terms of its thing, but this could be beginning of a company like Nvidia that no one's ever heard of because at one point no one had really talked about Nvidia other than as a gaming company. So I think people need to start looking below the surface of these trends with no friends as well. That's, that's kind of our point here.
- [69:11]
F
It's pretty neat that you can, I mean if you can tap into a community like yours, right, where you've got, you know, folks that have been looking at all these different companies for a long time, they have opinions that in aggregate, right. Can be quite useful. So. Absolutely.
- [69:24]
A
I see what's interesting about this list that we put together. It's in aggregate, what they still are missing, right? Yes, it's It's. They're not dumb. They're not wrong. It's just the data just needs to be read in a way that's unique, and then you feed it back to your community. And even though we fed it back to our community, there's only a thousand people following this stock. So if we ran a list of all the top 100 AI companies and their followers, this would probably be in, like, the lowest, be in the lower. You know what I'm saying? For sure. So we have to do a better job of helping our community than, you know, we have to take that next step, but that's how early we are in, like, stock picking.
- [70:06]
B
Third time Riley's written about this one or mentioned this one. And there's only one message up on the CREDO board today, and that's Howie's message.
- [70:18]
A
Yeah.
- [70:18]
B
So he's got the only message, you.
- [70:20]
A
Can lead a lead to water. I mean, the lesson here will end with Trends is you can lead a horse to water, but you got to do the work, and you got to. There's all these data sets that are. That are available and small and small products. Like Trends of no Friends, I think is like, under 5,000 subscribers, and it's free. Right. And so signal, everybody's looking and talking to what's his name, who's having his bitcoin prediction of this month. And last month, it was a small cap prediction that wheel them out on cnbc. And everybody's staring at one screen and. But if you take a step back from the one screen, there's much more going on in the market than Michael Saylor, etc. So, anyway.
- [71:01]
B
Beautiful.
- [71:02]
A
All right, boys.
- [71:02]
B
All right. Great program today. Armando. Thank you so much for joining us. Appreciated.
- [71:08]
A
It's. He's playing multiple roles. We're all being punked. I think it's. We're. We're being punk. All right, everybody.
- [71:15]
F
Thank you.
- [71:16]
B
Adios, guys.
- [71:16]
G
See you, guys.
- [71:17]
A
See you, Mike.
- [71:23]
B
It.