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Trends with Friends
Internet Capital Markets: Kyle Samani on Solana, Prediction Markets, and the $FORD Play
00:59:10
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- [00:00]
A
Good morning, everyone. I am Howard Lindsay. I'm joined today by my Trans with Friends partner, Michael Parek in Houston today. Mike.
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B
Houston, indeed.
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A
I'm in San Diego and we're walking with an old friend of mine. He's beaming. He's freshly married, freshly groomed. And is she grooming you? You're freshly groomed.
- [00:21]
C
I appreciate that. I showered today for once.
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A
That's a very high pressure dryer you're using. Using a high tech as well. Kyle Somani joining us from Utah. Austin. Where?
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C
Austin. I'm at home in Austin, Texas.
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A
Nice.
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B
I need to change it to a T shirt. I'm not. I don't get the memo on the uniform.
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C
You're gonna get the memo. It's. Yeah, it's the anti monkey suit.
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A
He is looking good. Kyle and I go way back to 2017. I didn't know your roommate in college was Pranav, who I'm also an investor in his fund. So it's like you've got the whole thing covered. There's very low odds that two guys at what school?
- [00:57]
C
Nyu. Yeah. Pranav is a very close friend of mine, and we were roommates junior year of college.
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A
So Pranav's at Banak. Good friend of mine. So just small world that I'm an LP in both of your funds. I had to. I tried every way to get out of being in multicoin. So, Michael, just so you know the backstory here with Kyle introduced by Vinnie. I was a seller of. Didn't really understand bitcoin. I think Bitcoin was 1,000 in 2017 or 17 on its way to 19,000.
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C
That was the peak.
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A
That was peak. And I was a seller. And Vinnie goes, you gotta get. You gotta back multicorn. And I'm like, dude, I think I just sold all my crypto. So the only way I would invest in Kyle. Cause I think your fund at the time was what, 10 million? Six million?
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C
Yeah, something like that. Ten's probably about right.
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A
And I said, listen, if you can take IRA money, which was my way of saying, you know, you'll never take my money. I'll make it happen. Thinking that, like, you know, if it's IRA money, I'll do it. And he went, I don't think you would do that today, you know, in the position you. I don't. But at the time, they were, like, scrambling to raise capital. So you got it all done through Pensco and Gary, my partner and I, um, I don't think we let. Tom's pretty pissed, but I don't even think, I don't even think I wanted to tell Tom. Cause he would have just said fuck off. But at the time Kyle goes, yeah, I set it up for you at pensco. So I had to. Kyle, I don't even know if you know this, right? So, so we deposit, I don't know, 150,000 in your first fund, which turned out to be one of the best funds of all time. And I remember about two years into it, Kyle, that's a funny story. And we're out of time, so we're not even going to have any time to talk about what you want to talk about. But this story, I don't even know if you know this.
- [02:42]
C
I'm reminiscing on old, old times now.
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A
Yeah, no, but I don't know if you know stories. So Gary is an animal. He. He's. He's a risk on all the time. He didn't sell any of his crypto and put money in his retirement account in. In has crushed it with multiply is amazing and very different risk mechanic risk profile than me. Gary. So about two years in, Kyle, we're getting your statement and it's like 90k or whatever. My wife was under a full audit, a yearly full audit from my wife. And she's just paper, she's got her hat on, she's going through paper. She goes, what is this multicoin can we sell? And I'm like, why are you worried about, you know, a $60,000 loss in crypto? I'm like. And you know, so, you know, I, I called off Ellen. Just she was kind of like closing things down and taking losses. I said it doesn't help us to take a loss in our ira. Just leave it alone. I think at that time probably Solon was probably like 10 cents or something, right?
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C
And 2019, it wasn't even live yet.
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A
Yeah, okay, so, so, so, so we don't sell. Long story short, millions and millions of dollars later. So my wife almost, I mean listen, she almost crushed me on my IRA account. But you didn't. Do you remember those days and like what it was like in 19? I mean we've had some bear market, but do you remember as a small fund what it was like back then?
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C
Well, I do. I mean we were struggling to stay alive. We had to raise GP capital. No one took us seriously. Like crypto defi wasn't a thing yet. I mean it was just kind of like if you were in crypto in that and through that winter, if you were Not a bitcoin person, which I've never been a bitcoiner. Then you, you just were there to believe that like something would emerge of this and it was quite unclear what it would be.
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A
And Mike, during this time you're doing semiconductor investments, so you don't care either way. So flash forward today.
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B
I dabbled a little bit in this stuff.
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A
Flash forward today. Multicoin started a six to $10 million fund. I know David Sachs was the big investor. I think Fred Wilson I introduced you to is a big investor. And let's flash forward. How big is multicoin?
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C
I mean we have Today, we're an SEC registered investment advisor. So our filings are public. AUM is in the 3 billion range.
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A
3 billion range now. Now through this you've also had a drawdown of like 90% post. So after the great run, what. So what was harder? The first struggle like through 1819 bare market or the 90% pullback in 22. Can you compare them? Is it, is it. When did your hair. Can we have a. Do we have a picture of your hair in summer of 22?
- [05:28]
C
Sure, we can find one. Let me go dig through my, my photos app here. They were very different. I mean the first bear market for us was just kind of like one of irrelevance and it was just like we believe, but like what exactly do we believe in? And by the second one, we knew what we believed in. But you know, we were. Everyone was very mad at us and Sam and you know, just. There was just a lot. It was like it was anger. It wasn't anger.
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A
Crash. You know what? I was part of that anger. 09 in Phoenix.
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C
Yeah, I mean, look, people felt some again in 2018, 19. Like we were just so small that we were irrelevant. And like if you were, even if you were in our fund, like your percentage allocation of your net worth to our fund was sociologist. What. It just didn't matter. And that stopped being the case by the end of 21. And so, and then obviously look like, you know, FTX happened and you know, we were, we had money on there and we had a lot of investments we had done alongside FTX and whatever. We got caught up in it. And so people felt wronged and hurt and angry. The sentiment was very distinct. I think emotionally 22, 23 was much harder then.
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A
Yeah. Okay, so now here we are, it's 20, 25 October, they call it Uptober, but I don't know what that means. It's funny, I just, I think all of crypto is Both amazing, you know, because some of the smartest people I know are in it and some of the smartest people I know ignore it. So I, and then some of the smartest people I know doing the worst thing is just making fun of it. So it's like there's three categories of people I, I, I, I think ignoring it's fine. I think being long and all in is fine. I think the people that just dismiss it or it just says something more.
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C
Rat poison squared I believe is the technical term you're looking for.
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A
Yeah.
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C
From our good boomer friend Warren Buffett.
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A
So here we are. October multicoins, 3 billion. We'll talk about Solana. You've taken over a public company. I don't know how we call it. It's you it's like a re imagination of their business. It's different than a spat.
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C
They're adding a new they. Ford Industries has added a new strat, you know, business strategy to the business.
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A
Yeah. So and then the third thing I want to talk about is prediction market. So maybe we'll talk a little bit about AI so Michael can tie it all together and so you pick which is first you want to talk about forward, Solana, Multicoin or prediction market.
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C
I think we should probably start with Solana. I think that's the natural segue into forward.
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A
So let's talk about Solana because I've, you've done well by me and I still don't know if I use it and I know I will be using it because stock twits, you know and I chat about wallets and stock twits and fast twitch trading and prediction markets. So tell like give me the layman's version. Even though my audience just a trends with friends. The Solana is hovering around $200. The most exciting it got was when Trump launched his coin, I guess on Solana, which I think was on Solana through some other things and solana peaked at 260. So here we are with Solana. Explain to my type of audience who rides along with me as a trend follower and it's obvious that Solana is not going away where Solana is and what excites you about it.
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C
Yeah. So I think kind of to understand vision of Solana and it's kind of encapsulated in this term that, that I and a number of others in the Solana community have been talking about for the last few months which is what we, we now call Internet capital markets. And actually I gave a presentation at the all in Summit A few weeks ago. But I encourage you to watch that presentation. It's 10 minutes long. I, I gave it at the All In Summit a couple months ago.
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A
We'll link to it. We'll link to it. Yeah.
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C
Thank you. And the, the, the core understanding of Internet capital markets, I think there are two vectors to understand it and I talk about one of those vectors in the all in presentation and I don't really address the other one.
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A
But one.
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C
Of those vectors is just getting existing assets people trade Apple, Google, Nvidia, whatever, FX, commodities onto crypto rails. Because crypto rails are 24 7, they're global, they're permissionless, they're programmable and like it's just, it just, it will make financial market infrastructure better, cheaper, faster and it will increase access for people like, especially people in, in emerging markets who really don't have access to Robinhoods and the other kind of like modern brokerages that most Americans, they will, right, because.
- [10:04]
A
Of Alpaca and you know, and you'll meet.
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C
They will, but I would actually, I actually it is my base case that the vast majority of people over the next 10 years who own an equity for the first time will own in crypto, a crypto tokenized version as opposed to via Alpaca or some other hook into the dtcc.
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A
Michael will, Michael will talk to why maybe that won't happen. But, but, but keep going, keep going.
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C
Yeah, so that, that's like one vector of understanding Internet capital markets and it's kind of, it's kind of the generic one.
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A
It's not like understanding it, but yeah.
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C
Yeah, that's a great one. And then the other, the other vector, and this is the one that I really talk about more in the all in presentation is what crypto enables is it enables a finance to become an Internet native primitive for the first time in the last 30 year history of the Internet. And what I mean by that is like today all of finance is actually very isolated on the Internet. Meaning if you want to trade a prediction market, you go to polymarket.com or go to Calm and Trade. If you want to buy an equity, you go to Robinhood or Morgan Stanley or Fidelity or whatever and you, you click that. You know, you go there, there's a search box at the top, you type in the ticker and then there's a price chart and there's a buy or sell button, right? And like every single brokerage firm in the last 30 years, like that is the UI flow that holds true not only for equities and commodities, and effects. It also holds true in crypto. Coinbase has the same user interface flow. Even Phantom and Soul Flare and the crypto wallets all have the same basic flow.
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A
Okay.
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C
And I call that like, kind of like isolated finance.
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A
Hit peak, isolated finance.
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C
I agree.
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A
Yeah.
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C
To be clear, that's never going away, but like, because people always want that. But no, we are now, we are now working because these crypto APIs are permissionless, open source, 24.7global. Intrinsically, we are now seeing people embed finance into other places in the Internet. And, and that's enabling trading and financial market applications to happen in new context. And so let me give you a few examples. The first, the first new mode, what we call a modality that emerged for trading beyond the kind of generic one that I just described, was about two years ago and it was actually these Telegram bots. And if for I didn't get into it, but I.
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A
It was huge. And they have the cash tag over there, so it was huge.
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C
Correct. So the core insight with these Telegram bots is if you are in crypto today, I would argue the substantial majority of of crypto discussion in the world happens on Telegram. In group chats, public forums, et cetera. Tens of hundreds of millions of people use Telegram for this purpose every single day. And the core insight was, hey, instead of, you know, going to your phantom wallet to trade and then reading in Telegram, what if you could just trade in Telegram? And so these bots were made and like, they're very simple to use. You type in like slash buy and you'd say head btc. Right. And it like buys these BTC for you.
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A
Sure.
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C
And there was never trading in human history that looked like that before. Like until about two years ago.
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A
Remember though, I wanted this to happen with Twitter, with stock with the cash tag in 2007.
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C
Yes, Twitter, you had the vision for it.
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A
I honestly, I'm not trying to toot my heart, but I just. Because you don't even know all the history and Michael knows the history and Fred Wilson knows the history. This is Robin Hood. Only in America could Robin Hood have happened in 2013. That should have happened in 2007, 2008. Right. But what happened was people from Silicon Valley who didn't know finance. Who. Right. Like Kumbaya, Arab Spring, you know, Jack and ever like, no, uh, you know, this isn't about finance. Right. Like, so we got pushed back 10 years, you know, Mark Zuckerberg and I. Everybody makes jokes about Twitter, but all they really missed was they were the protocol. Right. Like Fred Wilson thought that was a protocol. Like he got that fucking right. And Twitter, you know, the filling holes part. And there's so much missed, like, because Twitter was the ultimate platform for all of finance. Like capital markets will look different if. It would look different today if Twitter. Because that's, because it was so open. Telegram was like, oh my God, the cash tag, like, you know, Marc Andreessen trading on Twitter, you trading on Twitter. All those things should have led to a wallet, but keep going.
- [14:29]
C
Anywho, so. So the first kind of new modality for trading was these telegram bots. Yeah, that emerged about two years ago. We are now seeing a lot of people. We're now going to start to see trading embedded in other new contexts. And so in my all in presentation, I provide a handful of examples. One very obvious one is I expect in the pretty near future, like probably in the next few months, you are going to be able to trade prediction markets while you're reading the Wall Street Journal or other equivalent financial media of some form. It's fairly intuitive. If you're reading an article about, you know, Jerome Powell and interest rates, shouldn't that the thing at the top be an interactive price chart, not just a screenshot of a price chart? And obviously then have a buy in a sell button like clear clearly be.
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A
There because it's a language. Incorrect. I think what people don't understand is this is news.
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C
Correct.
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A
So while Congress was worried about Facebook and Twitter and DraftKings and whatever that you can't regulate something, innovation came along.
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C
Correct.
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A
And instead of opinion, you get prices and you can bet against the price or you can bet with the price. And as I tell my daughter, who doesn't, who, who's so mad all the time, now you have a place to go, polymarket. And if you think the new, if you think it's wrong, you can make a bet. You can go argue later and waste your time on Twitter and Instagram and try and convince people, which is a stupid thing to do because you're never going to convince people. Or you can learn the language and profit and, and make change. If you believe Mandami is going to win in New York and you, you know, and you go look at the numbers, the only way to affect change is to now go effect change, go local. You're going to have to go fight. If those numbers are true, what are you arguing about on Twitter to convert people go affect change. So I think this is like one of the greatest innovations of the prediction market is not the actual betting. It's the fact that it will get people off Twitter and off Instagram and say, listen, the front page of news and information is predictions. And we will move beyond this social era. Social will move to the secondary level. Meaning look at the chart. Here's how the bet is expressed. You better get your act together. If you really are worried about this or if you think the numbers are wrong, you can bet against it. Go ahead, keep going.
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C
Yeah, I mean I think prediction markets are going to improve financial literacy dramatically.
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A
Dramatically. We've needed this. We've needed this because.
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C
Yeah. So you're going to start to see the ability to trade prediction markets on major media sites on the same by the way will be true for sports. If you're reading about whatever, you know reading on Yahoo. Sports, like there's going to be a buy and a sell button on the, you know, whatever, like who's going to win the super bowl or whatever it is, this is all going to happen I think over the next few months.
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A
Stock puts partner with polymarket again like correct. So stocks will become a prediction site.
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C
Prediction site, that's right. So I'm very excited about that. You know there's another example I highlighted in my all in presentation. I've always thought it would be the idea of, of swipe to trade for a prediction market I find to be like extremely compelling because most prediction markets are binary and so the, the modality of swipe right or swipe left to make a prediction with an embedded trade, you know, five bucks, ten bucks, whatever it is, I think is extremely compelling. And we have one portfolio company that's not yet announced that they are doing this focused on sports. And the, the interface is, is like the intended bet is will the next play be a runner pass as an investor.
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A
But my problem with all these is the cold start problem. So it's a question, is this an API driven thing or is it a cold website thing?
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C
Oh, I mean this is, this is a native app because you need that product experience has to be extremely polished for that to work. Right. So we're, there's all these kinds of new things and then the other incredible, incredible opportunity for trading is obviously private group chats. The telegram bots that I just alluded to a few minutes ago were actually very much single player experiences. But you can imagine especially with sports betting, you know, you have all these group chats with fantasy, right? Like group chats and stuff. Why can you not say, you know, bet 100 bucks on the bucks and then your friend says no, I'm going to Bet on the Bengals. Yeah. Peer to peer and they counter trade you. And like there should be a button that says copy trade and another button that should say counter trade.
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A
Yeah.
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C
And it should be in the group.
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A
I think, you know, this, this I'm so excited to talk to you and Mike will let you know. Mike's probably brewing with some stuff here. But what, what? I hate the word copy trade. I think I, I, I don't think, I think that that SC I think it's copy bet. I think it's, there's two ways to go with this. You can copy the bet, you can bet peer to peer. I don't think what people don't understand about group like you know, you had all or nothing you had to be on to open on Twitter or you had to be closed on telegram. Right. And that's because Twitter missed the idea. And Snapchat really had a chance to get young people involved by doing an API and getting people involved in investing. They had the right model with video, had the news aggregate. They really missed having a, you know, never pitched Evan. But like they had the APIs to go do this and really convert young people. They would have been the ones to convert the young people. But Robinhood got all the marbles. And we'll talk about the second derivative of Robinhood's comeback was, you know, I just want to get out there is Robinhood almost got shut down for confetti. Four years later. Four years later, the confetti gate. Four years later they can you imagine Vlad in a board meeting going, hey guys, I know confetti gate didn't go well, but we're just going to partner with this company called Kalshee and we're going to let people bet on sports. Like wait a minute, we almost just got shut down for confetti. You know, it's kind of like you, you, if you spelled tomato wrong, you couldn't be president 30 years ago. And now if you are a tomato, you can be president. Right? Like so we are now at the tomato part of, of, of prediction markets. So, So I think what really this comes down to and Solana and stable coins and all this you'll explain to me and meme coins and all kinds of is in that group chat. You can go peer to peer, you can pool. Right. You can challenge other peer to peer groups. This is the ultimate fighting, this is the ultimate bragging rights. And I think it cures spam because hey, before I block you, you fucking mutant, why don't you put $5 on this and we'll have bragging rights. So you could turn, you can finally turn an enemy into a compadre.
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C
A friend. Yes.
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A
Over a bet. And I think that could cure a lot of the spam. So these are all the things that I'm thinking about that are blowing my mind.
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C
I, I think, I think shitposting and trading are like yin and yang.
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A
Same thing.
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C
Like they, they go so well hand in hand.
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A
It's so the same. It's like our data can be used by somebody else. I hate you. But here's what we're going to do before I insult you. Well, I'm going to keep insulting you, but let me insult you after I beat you in a bet. Right. And, and, or lose. And that becomes data and that becomes people that you can bet against the moosh. Right. Like this is all going to clean up a lot of the Internet mess and create, you know, very unique market data. Okay, Michael, I know you've got some strong opinions here. Lot to digest. Where, where are we off here and what do you, what do you like about it? I was going to ask Michael what you. So, Michael, you're digesting here. What, what do you think of this crazy discussion so far?
- [22:01]
B
No, I'm very intrigued by it. This is all very early days. As Kyle, you said, this is all kind of evolved very quickly, especially the prediction market side over the last couple of years. You know, online, you and I were talking with this. This reminds me. I mean, I started at Goldman in 82, and I remember options and futures were just becoming understood and internalized institutionally. And I was part of that. I was, you know, I used to sit 10ft away from Fischer Black, who had joined Goldman as a partner back then in terms of the pricing models of these things. And we were just trying to get our heads around how these things worked from a trading mechanics point of view. I'm intrigued by your Internet capital markets analogy because I was again, 15ft from our capital markets group on the trading desk. And so this is, this is all very exciting. The one thing I would ask you, technically, because you're talking about Kashi or you know, there's all these separate siloed prediction markets. And you know, how are institutions looking at all this across these markets? In other words, if I wanted to do a Mamdani trade, or J.D. vance versus Newsom trade across these various prediction markets institutionally in the old days, if I wanted to do options, futures, there was a specific exchange I would go to, or New York Stock Exchange, nasdaq, whatever. Here from the beginning, these are discrete markets, all siloed. And I'm just trying to figure out how, how do the professionals kind of, or, or even, you know, investors who are active kind of cope with the silofication of these prediction markets and then compare thing across this thing technically. Are you seeing that infrastructure evolving? Does that make sense?
- [23:54]
C
Yeah, I think I understand the question. I mean, look, you know, discovery for these things. I think right now, Kalash.com is obviously separate than, let's say, you know, drift, which is a perpetual exchange on Solana. I, I think in practice, what's amazing about these crypto systems is all of the backends are all open, permissionless systems and so you can hook up any back end to any front end. And I expect, what I expect you're going to see is you're going to see front ends that if, look, if there's a power user that wants to be trading prediction markets side by side with Bitcoin perps, let's say, and if that user profile really exists, someone is going to build a front end that hooks into Drift on the back end for the perp trading and hooks into Kalsheet on the back end for prediction markets. There's already, if you're deep into crypto circles, there's a number of protocols, things like Axiom and Phantom and others, they do this today where they basically just have two tabs at the top. One is like a meme coin trading tab, one's a perp trading tab as an example. And, and those two tabs hook in the different back ends. So this kind of design pattern already exists. I think it'll become more, more common. I also think that the other thing you're going to see happen contemporaneously is you're going to see margining systems built that margin across all of these things. Obviously this is how the world works.
- [25:16]
A
Becomes important because of the yield and lending or no.
- [25:19]
C
Well, so, so I mean like today, right? J.P. morgan and Goldman and Morgan and these guys use their balance sheets and they make those available to hedge funds and they can trade across CBOE and CME and NYSE and whatever, right? And in a similar way, that construct of a prime in that configuration does not really exist in crypto markets today. There's a bunch of people who've been trying over the years and we've looked at a bunch of those teams. We are an investor in one protocol that's called zero, actually and it's built on natively on Solana, going well, it is a It is a prime. It is basically a mechanism to have a prime where anyone can lend into the prime. That's amazing. And then they allocate capital across all these different venues. They manage risk. And then hedge funds or other sophisticated traders, instead of going to each venue directly, they would obviously go through zero. And zero will provide, you know, better rates, more collateral efficiency, because they can hedge everything.
- [26:19]
A
What's amazing here? And get me if I'm Wrong, Mike, the 80s and 90s, which was your world and you deserved all the riches you got. The world was different. The world wasn't developed. We didn't have networks. There was no liquidity. Right. So to the victors go the spoils in the 80s and 90s. And I look at options and futures, I still don't want to learn them. Like Tom Sosnoff who's thinkorswim and now the hell's the name of his new company. That's crushing it. But basically for futures trades. Dude, I'm 60 years old. I'm washed up. Those languages never made sense to me because they were institutional first. I think one of the most beautiful things about prediction markets and obviously stablecoins before that and crypto before that. It was retail first.
- [26:57]
C
Correct.
- [26:58]
A
We are moving to a retail first world. And I think the. And I'm jumping over. So I apologize because it's just, just an exciting convo for me. Cause I never get to talk to Kyle and Mike, you guys at the same time. But like we have moved. There's so many things about this that are interesting because the futures and options still never explain the language well enough. Right. They still are an institutional product that retail has adopted because it's available and fun and Robinhood made the ui. Right. But in an ultimate world, prediction markets are better than options and they're actually a much better education tool. Meaning my son and I tell this to Kyle will never trade stocks. Okay, I'm at peace with that. But he needs to learn this language. And the idea of being able to pull out. Tesla's going to beat earnings or Nvidia is going to beat earnings from the direction that happens from. That is such a terrifying concept to beginning investors because it just blows their mind that they, they, they got something right and lost money combined with time value of money versus hey, man, my smart friends and I, we believe that Optimus is going to have a great quarter. They're going to crush their numbers. They don't have to have an opinion about what happens to the stock at a certain amount of time. They Just have to have an opinion on like how reading Elon Musk and, and all the news is. So I think that's exciting. That's a very retail first language first combination that's going to be epic for, for the prediction market. Yeah.
- [28:26]
C
I mean it allows you to express true pure play perspectives.
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A
Yeah.
- [28:31]
C
On so many of these things. Is is Tesla going to turn on without leverage? Without leverage. Yeah. Is. Is Tesla going to turn on nationwide FSD by this date X or Y? Like it's so clear and you're right, it's very frustrating to own TSLA and like the Fed cuts industry it raises rates and like the price collapses and you're like what? Like you know, I'm sure they're rolling out fsd. It's very frustrating.
- [28:56]
A
Yeah. So I think I don't know if it's going to increase volatility. I don't want to argue about what is good for what is bad for. What it's good for is onboarding. We need the greatest game in the world is the markets. There's four or five people that have gotten thing rights in my lifetime Michael. I'm lucky I get to talk to you. Everybody but Fred Wilson, Chris Dixon, a few people that have just been fundamentally correct more than wrong around enough things financial that are important. The hardest thing has always been language Robinhood. I wouldn't say Coinbase but I would say you know Coinbase. God bless. But Robin Hood really flipped the language right. With all their hacks. But again like I think we're now at, at peak whatever we called that before. Right. Like the next innovation will come from something you don't see why Robinhood.
- [29:46]
C
I mean the, the, the, the next 10x in retail trading comes from embedding trading in these other contexts APIs what.
- [29:54]
A
Twitter could have done 15 years ago. And it comes from the fact that I've been saying and Robin had two vlogs credits to what I got wrong. Right. Because I terminal escape velocity on me to that would be like a $50 billion, $60 billion company. What he got right and why the stock's at $140 is Wall street call. She wasn't even even I don't think Robinhood would have believed the call she would have been that big a bet for the you know a bigger product for them. So they completely caught everybody by surprise. Now everybody's years behind Robin Hood from Coinbase on the reason Robin Hood flipped Coinbase and market cap was because of call sheet. Right. Like the analysts just didn't have it on their books and that's how you become $100 billion company. Uber wouldn't have been a hundred billion dollar company without Uber eats right like so, so we're in this. The hints are there and Robinhood has a massive head start. But the good news about prediction markets, like you just said, they will become embedded. It's, it's Robinhood's got the early advantage but if it becomes embedded companies like stock twits, Twitter, any, anybody can be big who has, who has scale around group chats, chats, et cetera. I think it's why Robinhood launched social is not for copy trading but for copy betting. I think when, when you know, we could argue whether they're going to be good at social or bad at social. You and I have talked about this Kyle, but the point is either way it's good because it, it's they copy betting and peer to peer betting are going to be massive.
- [31:28]
C
I mean so talking and trading go hand in hand. Your intuition about your commentary about Twitter and then obviously stock twits is that people want to talk about what they're trading.
- [31:38]
A
Yes.
- [31:39]
C
Which is very natural. And what is tell all these telegram chats, what is Twitter? I mean it's people talking about capital markets.
- [31:45]
A
And so where does Solana fit in this, in Stablecoin, where do you see like what's other bets on multicoin? Where, where. Let's go back to Solana where we know where is, where does Solana fit into all this?
- [31:54]
C
Yeah, I mean we, we think Solana is by far the best positioned foundational infrastructure to power basically everything we've been describing. Spot trading of, of meme coins, of Tesla stock, of whatever powering trading of perpetuals and options and other derivative contracts powering prediction markets. You know, Kalshi hasn't announced anything but like you can probably assume Kalshi is doing some crypto stuff. They've obviously been making some very public crypto hires in the last couple months. So you should expect to see Kalshi rolling out some stuff pretty soon on that front. And all of this we think the, is going to be the bulk of it's going to be powered on Solana. Solana today is by far the most widely used blockchain in the world. It has the highest trading volumes, it has the highest application revenue, it has the highest revenue flowing to solo stakers. It's if you look at all of the metrics of vitality and of organic usage, Solana is far and away number one on all those metrics and we're very excited about.
- [32:51]
A
Michael, you're an Internet analyst. So Solana, right today is based at $100 billion. Let's walk through how it becomes a $500 billion company. What is it a company? Is it an entity? Is it a, it's not a company.
- [33:02]
C
I mean it's an, it's an asset, it's a commodity. And actually I wrote a blog post a few months ago on the multicoin blog called the Solana Thesis Internet Capital Markets. And in that thesis I walk through kind of how do you get. If you're buying Seoul at a hundred billion, call it a hundred billion plus or minus, how do you get like what's the case for it to be a trillion? And like, I can tell you I'm holding soul because I think it gets to a trillion. And so in that blog post I kind of walk through, walk through the thesis of how we get there. It's not like a dcf. I think the, the growth rates on, on inputs are just, it's too noisy. But I, when I think about the total TAM availability and the ability of Solana to capture that value, I think you can get to a trillion.
- [33:47]
A
And where do stablecoins fit in all this? Meaning are they the highways between what people use as JP Morgan uses this chain? Like where does the stable coins fit into this? Freddie Fred Wilson was early bullish on stable coins. I'm super bullish on, on stable coins. Where does that.
- [34:02]
C
Yeah, I mean stable coins are obviously the, the pri. Look, the primary asset people want in the world is US dollars and that's not going to change anytime soon. And the vast majority of, of assets in the world are quoted in USD. And so the growth of stable coins is, is, is, is a necessary prerequisite to also facilitate the growth of all of this trading that we've been talking about. Because whenever you're trading whatever the Fed interest rates on, on Kalshi on Solana, or you're trading a sports bet or you're doing this, whatever, like all of those things are going to be settled in stablecoins on open global 24. Seven permissionless systems like salon.
- [34:41]
B
Just to be clear, the reason I was talking about institution, you know, the 80s and 90s is not for historical lessons. I was just pointing that that was the nascent period of those types of securities and it was the beginning of the institutionalization and the building of liquidity. Which ties to your question, Howard, whether it's Solana as In a utility 100 billion going to trillions of dollars Stablecoin, which already is seeing trillions of dollars of institutional flows now with all the recent regulatory changes. And so yes, it is very important to watch the meme, coin trading, retail aspects of this. But ultimately the markets I'm looking at right now on call, et cetera. It's just math. It's just math and liquidity and how much money institutionally. You know, if I see a price on the Mamdani trade, 100 to 106, I want to know what sizes are on both sides. And in the 80s and 90s, the Goldmans of the world provided huge amounts of liquidity. Today the markets are much more robust on a lot of fronts. And that's what I'm curious about because these things, they kind of, you know, history rhymes. This echoes to me. This is the beginning of some of these, this, this plumbing and, and infrastructure being built, which is what Kyle's talking about. It's very exciting. And, and, and, and I'm just curious as to how fast all of this stuff is getting institutionalized in terms of capable, sophisticated institutions being able to do arbitrage. You know, where is the, when, when is the quant fund stuff happening here? When is the rent?
- [36:15]
A
I don't think yet. What are you seeing? What are you see here? It's here already.
- [36:19]
C
Oh yeah. I mean Sig and Citadel and Jane street and Jump, all these guys, they're all active on Kali, I'm not less sure on Poly Market because it's not regulated, but they're all active on, on Kalsi. You have tons of prop trading firms today market making across KAL and, and polymarket and these other, other venues. That's only going to grow more, more robust over time. Obviously on the sports side, I mean there's already a number of very large sports market makers, especially in Europe, but all the major, you know, Two Sigma and, and all these guys are all getting into sports market making on these open platforms like Kalshi because they can for the first time because Fanduels and DraftKings were not open exchanges. Right. They set the odds. And for anyone who understands, they also.
- [37:05]
A
Kick off the winners. So it's not a true market.
- [37:08]
C
It's not a true market. But it's just absurd that one group just sets the price and says, you know, take it or leave it. Markets should be markets. And so to have all of the most sophisticated and for that matter, mom and pop shops and two guys in the garage being able to quote on a market is wonderful.
- [37:24]
A
Yeah, no, we all agree there. I think the Other thing that's different about this way versus Web 2.0, we think about wealth front, we think about betterment. The ones, you know, that's what Walt, that's what Silicon Valley thought was going to be the thing. They were like assets under management is what venture capital should be backing trading because trading was taboo, right? Because after 08 09, so Robinhood came out with no interest, you know, did the round at 8 million valuation. Think about what gets valued at 8 million valuation today. It wasn't because they mispriced. It is because no one believed in trading. And that's as late as 2013, 14, seven years after the App Store, six years after. Think about the mispricing that was happening. What's fascinating about Polymarket and K, you didn't have a split second to make that decision, right? Like the, the institutions were not going to be left behind this time, right? So the institutions never got behind Robin Hood, other than Citadel, let's say. The institution never really got behind Coinbase. They never really got behind stablecoins. Right. You know, they went from rat poison to kind of believing to now with, with prediction markets. They're in the seed. Like, I mean ICE just put in 2 billion in the polymarket. Wall street and retail have never been more connected so fast. And this is again why Robin Robinhood's the proxy for this, because of the Couchy partnership, right? So Robinhood is telling you, screaming, that whether you believe Robinhood's overvalued, there is so much money on the table here, you know, to the first mover, obviously in Robinhood, but to the second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth movers. There's so much chess to be played. But what Wal has committed to here is not being left behind in this race. They missed Web two, Goldman went down their own path with consumer products and gave up on all of it and shut everything down. And Apple, Apple even got the better of them with the credit card. So there, like, with ICE moving in and with like Venture being in Ki, like, and, and who's the big Susquehanna behind Ki? Like this is the real one. And I think. Well, and so how do you think about that? How do you stay ahead of this now?
- [39:34]
C
I mean, crypto has always been a retail first thing in this. This stems from the fact of like, you know, you generate a private key using enterprise. I mean, how does your phone generate a private key? It literally measures like how electrons are moving around inside the silicon in the processor and that that is the core source of entropy that you use to produce a Private key. And then you can obviously store that private key in your silicon that, that maps very directly to this idea of individual sovereignty and obviously that to Bitcoin and. Right. And like all of those kind of core ideas, that concept does not map to a foundation or an endowment or a pension fund or any of these other abstracted financial constructs that we have today. And so it took a long time to get custody and multi party computation and all these other things to, you know, to get there. And so crypto has always been retail first and that's always spoken to me certainly at a very personal level. Because in crypto the history of crypto is guy launches new product and like you go play with new product and if you play with your product first, you can probably make money. And so it encourages exploration. And like the people in crypto, they call themselves trenchers and like it's, it's kind of a joke but like they're the people who new product launches and they go put their money in it in a matter of minutes and they're taking on incredible amounts of risk and they can be rewarded for that. And I love that kind of like pioneering mentality that comes with that. What you see happening now on the institutional side, yeah, look, the blackrocks and the Franklin Templetons and those guys and the banks are slowly making their way into crypto. But actually the groups that are really in crypto in size that you would call traditional institutions are the trading firms. And at this point all of them are more or less in crypto. Not necessarily market making on Defi, but certainly all of them are trading at this point on Coinbase at least. And they're all, every single one of them has, you know, like a crypto plan and a strategy and they're all executing against Jane Street. Sig Jump is by far the most public about what they do and they are by far the deepest into it. Citadel, all these guys, because what they understand is crypto enables anyone in the world to trade anything. And the, the big market making firms want to obviously provide liquidity. That, that's their, their mandate. So it's very natural that you see those guys being at, at the, at the kind of forefront of it. And what's awesome is that the, you know, those guys showing up does not preclude the two guys in a garage from doing the same thing. There are a ton of, I mean there probably thousands of individual groups that are two to six guys or gals and who are prop, trading, market making, whatever, some relative value, some are Stat arb stuff, you know, some just straight up providing bids and asks on the order book across all of these various venues. And the world is 8 billion people in the world. The world's a big heterogeneous place. And it's pretty incredible that two guys in their garage in India can compete with Jumping Jane Street. Now they're never going to beat Jumping Jane street, but they can at least provide liquidity on the same book on a level playing field. And that was not possible before. And that, that's just awesome to see.
- [42:48]
A
And my. It's an Internet. Early Internet Capital Guy. What do you. I, I'm just so think this is so much more interesting than kids building apps and begging people to use it versus people at least creating liquidity in a system. Whether you like it or not, liquidity is what matters. So where, where's your head on this, Mike?
- [43:06]
B
No, I.
- [43:06]
A
Look, I.
- [43:07]
B
These are separate things. Like software is one thing over there and, and all the technologies and AI and so this is another thing which is we're talking about marketplaces and, and look, these things we're talking about are the pork bellies of a hundred years ago. It's just a commodity that, you know, it's just that commodities are going from scarce to abundant. There were for the 150, 200 years, there were a dozen, 202 dozen, you know, a few dozen commodities that everyone traded and everything became tradable in those in. And it's very sophisticated, et cetera here. It's infinite.
- [43:44]
A
As.
- [43:45]
B
As Kyle's talking about you, you can, you can create markets and everything, which is why it totally makes a lot of sense that the smartest people in. On the trading side, the Jane streets, the ISIS of the world are totally all in on this stuff. And now with some of the regulatory uncertainties are being clarified a little bit. You know, it's. It's a, it's a bit of an open market and a bit of a wild west. So, you know, it is, you know, eyes wide open kind of a thing for everybody in this. In this, in this realm.
- [44:20]
A
Yeah. So. All right, so we've covered some prediction markets. We've covered. Solana. Let's. I want to talk about AI. We're going to go long because this is really fun to have the. Let's talk about forward industries in this next step. You did like you and I used to talk about SPACs. I did a SPAC, and when you were about to do a SPAC, I said don't do it right. Like, I don't feel and I listened.
- [44:42]
C
For once and I think you listen.
- [44:43]
A
I mean it's a trader's a trader. You made the right move, thank goodness. But here we are in 2025 and now you're chairman of Forward Industries. How is, is it different than a spac? Just explain to people. I own F O R D, but let's just, let's just talk about how you came off the bench for something like this versus a spac.
- [45:05]
C
Yeah. So Ford Industries is a public traded company. I'm the chairman of it. As of a few weeks ago. It's NASDAQ listed. The ticker is Ford F O R D. And the way I came became, the way I came to be chairman is we, we being the sponsor group, meaning Multicoin, Jump and Galaxy, which are really three of the largest and kind of most well known firms in crypto, came together and sponsored a $1.65 billion pipe that invested into Ford Industries. The transaction itself was actually very simple. The company over the weekend, the weekend being like September 10th or 9th, something like that. That weekend the company issued whatever, 80 million new shares, something like that, at a price of $18 and $0.50 plus or minus at the time going into the weekend. The stock, I think the closing trade was like 16 bucks or 16 and a half bucks or something. So we came in at a premium to the stock price for 1.65 billion. And you know, by Monday morning, like we, you know, that was, that was it, obviously the CEO and the board had authorized, you know, basically adding this new line of business of being a salon treasury company. And so Mike Pruitt, the CEO and the board said, hey, we think there's an interesting opportunity here to, to make this big crypto play. And we want to do so with the right partners and those partners being, you know, Multicoin, Jump and Galaxy. I'm now chairman of Ford Industries. And we've, we've kind of already started our execution on what we said we were going to do. We, we bought a bunch of Solana tokens. Forward industries own 6.8 million Solana tokens and that number is increasing every single day.
- [46:36]
A
And then is there a trade desk like last week when Trump announced the tariffs? Were you in there buying under 200 or is there, is that stuff all.
- [46:44]
C
Being built as we speak? Is that stuff for Forward Industries is not trying to play hedge fund on the sole USD price? We don't think that's in, that's in our mandate. What we are doing now that we've kind of done Our core accumulation is we're now putting together a strategy to deploy our soul and dollars on chain into defi and to earn incremental yield that way. So I've talked about this on a number of other podcasts and I can't say a lot yet, but I pretty soon will be able to talk about kind of everything that we're doing on that front. But we believe we're going to be able to earn pretty substantial yields for our shareholders, both with the sole side of our balance sheet as well as the dollar side.
- [47:25]
A
Make any thoughts on that, how they've structured it? No.
- [47:27]
B
It sounds you've thought through all of this and again, nascent, early and in size.
- [47:34]
C
Yeah, it's been a wild ride and journey. This is really my first time kind of interacting with Wall street traditionally and obviously I'm very crypto native and so I think my vantage point is particularly funny given kind of how everything I understand about crypto and then I'm going and interacting with, you know, the system that is this path dependent evolution over the last hundred years. Crypto is what you get with finance with zero regulations reinvented from the ground up. And it has had plenty of its own problems. Obviously those are very well publicized. And then the flip side is, you know, tradfi systems which have this kind of evolved cruft over the last hundred years of financial regulation. And I'd say for most people who interact with both systems and really appreciate the strengths and weaknesses of both systems, almost 100% of them will tell you they prefer crypto.
- [48:22]
A
Okay, two more things. So we're going way over, but I don't care AI. Like I know you're into AI, Michael's into AI. Where does this all connect?
- [48:30]
C
I mean, AI connecting.
- [48:32]
A
Is it interesting to you? And how are you, how are you thinking about it?
- [48:35]
C
Yeah, look, AI. AI is objectively the most important technology in, in the world. And I'm a, I'm a AI utopia, meaning kind of the opposite of an AI doomer. And I generally think that there's going to be massive scale job displacement because of utopia of AI. And I think one of the only things in the world that will not be disrupted by AI is the fundamental premise of capital markets. And, and so like being long the barbell of AI and crypto is, is I think actually like kind of the only thing I'm interested in in my portfolio and that that's how I perform. It's mostly crypto, not so much a high, but, but yeah, it's, it's Funny, I believe you're actually extremely complimentary.
- [49:26]
A
I believe in Barbell very early Seed doesn't need to be a billion dollar company that social leverages and very liquid tech. So I'm barbell that way just because I. But crypto is now becoming more native to me because of stablecoins because. Because it just makes so much sense to me as just financial products. Crypto, not so much. I don't know the lingo, but like the idea of stablecoins and the idea of prediction markets and the idea of peer to peer is just so. I wish I was younger, as I tell you all the time, because, you know, Robinhood was 2013, right? And by 2018 every single VC had switched to becoming a FinTech VC. And I was just like, oh my God, this can't be good right now they're all gone because they chased, right? But you know, the world doesn't need another Robinhood at this point because Robinhood's not a bad product. It's just like you almost don't need another Tesla. Tesla's a fantastic product. Like forgetting financials for a minute. Like the product's great, people love it. So. So this misallocation of resources that happen in Web two seems to be. Is going to be so much less misallocation of capital in this new world. So I'm excited about that because AI will make the smart people smart and keep the dumb people. You know, it's just going to be way more efficient. And I love seeing investments that blow my mind versus another app or, you know, another delivery service like Web2 really was a misdirection, I think, by the mistakes of the founders and the venture capitalists giving too much capital to the early winners. And I think this new generation, especially in hard tech, like with defense and hardware, is so much more exciting that VCs are allocating to that stuff and that Wall street has embraced retail. So you have these two phenomenons going on. You have venture capital doing venture capital things. They sound stupid, but at least they're fucking interesting. And then you have Wall street saying, wait a minute, retail could be 50% of the market. We better not screw this up this time. And like even you at Ford, you have to be on stock twits. You have to be thinking about PR and how to tell a narrative in your first day. You can't just be worried about fundamentals anymore. You have to tell a story, right? And so. So that's going to be different.
- [51:46]
C
People just want to review an Excel model. They want to, they want to understand what are the, you know, the future of what they're investing in at.
- [51:51]
A
Yeah, so I think we're very early in that. So AI. So what is. So how do you think about AI in prediction markets and everything else and in, in crypto?
- [52:00]
C
I mean, I think, I don't think there's a ton of crossover between AI and prediction markets other than like, look, people will use AIs to trade prediction markets. I mean this is a very common thing people do now is they just look up a poly market or a Kali market and then they just go kind of like ask the question to GROK or chatgpt and like you think it's priced too high or too low. There's already people who just do that and like make money, you know.
- [52:21]
A
But that's cool. That's using language. That's great.
- [52:24]
C
Other, other variations of the same basic idea to start trading and making money. Obviously you can imagine automating that and getting a lot more intelligent about how you do that.
- [52:32]
A
Mike, we have been agreeing more on the.
- [52:35]
B
That intersection is, is an important one because that fundamentally AI is about a 70 year shift in software from deterministic software to probabilistic software. And what we've been talking about all morning so far is probabilistic activity on trading, going from scarce commodities to infinite commodities in prediction markets. So there's a peanut butter and jelly mix of AI technologies and prediction markets. And as Kyle said, we're just at the beginning of, the beginning of how the stuff gets melded together and we're going to see some pretty crazy radical things that are very interesting. Not, you know, not, not too far from here.
- [53:21]
A
So very quick iteration. Where are we on leverage? Like I don't understand what, what the fascination here, Kyle. Everybody has exactly all the toys they want. So. So why the fascination with perps and all this stuff? And TW Coinbase offering 20 to 50 time leverage, is that, is that an area that interests you in terms of like what's the value? I don't get it. You know, get it.
- [53:43]
C
Earlier we were talking about like one of the key unlocks of prediction markets is they allow you to kind of express pure play views on like, you know, easy to understand questions like will Tesla roll out their cybertruck by whatever date? And perps kind of take that same idea and apply them to just liquid assets. Options quite frankly as an instrument suck. They're very hard to understand. Obviously understanding the Greeks from first principles is very difficult.
- [54:11]
A
Hate them.
- [54:12]
C
And I believe the only reason zero day options are Popular today is because perps don't exist. And I believe that perps are going to become a thing in US markets, equity markets, in the fairly near future.
- [54:24]
A
Can you explain it in English to an idiot like me? A perp. When you hear that word, a perp.
- [54:29]
C
I mean just imagine it's, it's, you're just levering up and just going long the asset with whether it's, it's 50% or 100% or 300% or 800%, but you're just, you're just getting, you know, levered, levered exposure. And it's like, well okay, if the price goes up 1%, then I make 8%. Okay, price goes down 1%, I lose 8%. And that's like very intuitive right, to.
- [54:53]
A
Understand that's how so many wallets got wiped out on Hype Hype this weekend.
- [54:57]
C
Yeah, people. I mean look, obviously trading with leverage, like recourse leverage, like there's always a chance that's going to happen. The, the, the kind of backward things about U.S. securities markets today is the reason options are basically permitted and perps are not is there's no recourse. Right. On options, it's like yes, you pay the premium and you know that money's gone and that's it. And so, so like max loss is easier to understand in options than it is in, in perps. And so because of that, we just like designed the entirety of US securities markets around understanding max loss. What we didn't forecast is well, well turns out options as an instrument actually give you way more implied leverage which just creates more like leads to more degeneracy anyways. And so being able to go long, something 130% or 180% is, is like for a lot of people that's actually what they want. But, but they can't get it without just like these short dated options. And the short dated options are not giving you 130%, they're giving you implied leverage of fucking 4,000%. Yeah. And, and so like we, we created this weird situation where you have like max, max leverage and kind of spot nothing and there's all this room for gray in the middle. And I would actually argue that most of the people who want some leverage want that gray in the middle. It requires a little bit of, of thinking about, you know, what is my max loss and, and collateral management. But like again this notion that like, oh, If I go 2x levered and if I go down 50% that means I get wiped out. Like that's Intuitive like that. This is not complicated.
- [56:30]
A
You know, really up to the house to manage that so they don't blow up.
- [56:33]
C
Correct, correct. And look like you should extend leverage in different ways. And there's obviously tons of sophistication that goes into those collateral engines. But like the idea of if I lever up to X and I got a 50% and I get wiped out, I don't know, it seems pretty straightforward.
- [56:45]
A
Yeah, good point. So, so now it's 20, 25, you're almost 40. I think you're almost 40. Right. So you know, forgetting about do overs like what, what you know, from, from starting to having 90% drawdown to being back on top, you know, near whatever, all time highs. What, what, how do you think about the world now in a risk scenario? Like what would you do? Like how are you prepared? Or are you just prepared for, hey, I live in a high risk world and 90% drawdowns happen? Or like what can you do differently?
- [57:16]
C
Yeah, I mean look, we, we think more about cross correlation and I mean the big thing we missed in 22 as, as asset managers was we did not antic, certainly not anticipate a, a large scale fraud and implosion and that that fraud and implosion would not just in and of itself hurt us, but then would have correlated effect, correlated effects that were particularly pointed at our portfolio given our portfolio construction at the time. So we did not anticipate that fortunately survived. We obviously now think a lot more about what are those correlated failures. Look like that's our biggest learning lesson. Look, I'm a believer the world is getting to be a better place. I think AI is part of that. I think crypto is part of that. And like don't think too hard, be long. The things that you believe are like growing in the world. So I generally try and be as long as I can be, you know, to that effect, both, both personally and via the fund. Pretty straightforward.
- [58:08]
A
All right, well, this has been great. Mike, anything that you wanted to ask before we head out?
- [58:13]
B
No, no, this has been very helpful to understand the scale, how fast it's moving, getting institutionalized.
- [58:20]
A
So it's just unbelievable how slow Web2 was to institutionalize trading of stocks. Right. And, and how fast this is moving. I am staggering. Is there is. And so how do people, how are people pitching you now? Like what is, what is the thing that you're looking for right now? What would excite you if you got pitched?
- [58:40]
C
Yeah, I wrote a blog post a couple months ago. It's on the multicoin blog. It's called New Modalities for Issuance and Trading. And it kind of covers this core concept that we talked about earlier about, like, these new modalities and new ways to trade. I am particularly drawn to new product experiences that facilitate trading in new contexts. I think that is incredibly exciting and one of. One of my. Yeah, particular.
- [59:04]
A
All right, well, we'll link to those gents. That was a fascinating conversation, Kyle. Thanks.