Trends with Friends – “The Boom is Back”
Date: November 13, 2024
Host: Howard Lindzon (with JC Parets, Phil Pearlman, and guest hosts Mike Dudas & Josh Isner)
Episode Overview
This lively episode celebrates the resurgence of major market trends, particularly focusing on the explosive return of crypto and the evolving public safety technology sector. Howard and the regular crew are joined by two special guests: Mike Dudas (crypto investor, founder of 6th Man Ventures) and Josh Isner (President of Axon, maker of Taser and law enforcement tech). The conversation flows from crypto’s “silly season” and the psychology driving the latest bull run, to real-world tech innovation at Axon, and then shifts to AI, chips, and the state of the broader tech landscape. The team keeps the tone fun, irreverent, and insightful.
Key Discussion Segments
1. Crypto’s “Silly Season” & The Next Market Phase
Guest: Mike Dudas
Timestamps: 01:27 – 26:38
Market Psychology & How Bull Runs Tip Into Mania
- Crypto’s Massive Resurgence: Recent weeks saw Bitcoin and altcoins spike, with retail interest (as measured by Coinbase App Store rankings) still ramping but not at fever pitch yet.
- Mike Dudas: “It’s still buy time… until Coinbase hits number one in the App Store. That usually happens after a big round number. It’s psychology, it’s reflexivity. The higher it goes, the more enticing these assets seem to people.” (02:25)
- Indicators of Broader Adoption: ETF inflows are at record highs ($4B+ in BTC inflows), with Ethereum even rallying strongly for the first time in a while.
Contrasts & Signals
- Traditional Finance vs. Crypto: While Warren Buffett hoards cash (~$300B), crypto surges—a contrast in signals.
- Phil Pearlman: “Warren Buffett’s cash levels are not only not a negative for the market…it’s actually the exact opposite or has nothing to do with the market.” (06:37)
- Howard: “It’s not how much cash you have, it’s what you do with your investments. There’s this mantra that you have to be fully invested all the time and you should be shamed if you don’t. People need to look at Warren Buffett and say, ‘How did he do this?’” (07:20)
Institutional and Geopolitical Tailwinds
- Post-Election Crypto Momentum: Trump’s recent endorsement is seen as a potent, positive signal, as is Republican interest in forming a Bitcoin strategic reserve.
- Mike Dudas: “Trump specifically and deeply embracing [crypto]... Bitcoin since his victory is up 30%, gold is down 5%.” (04:56)
- Mike Dudas: “Cynthia Lummis, sitting Senator, talking about a bitcoin reserve… with a Senate majority. That’s big news.” (05:53)
Real Business in Crypto: Beyond Speculation
- Institutionalization: Serious capital is pouring in—unlike the wild ICO days, now true companies are being built in payments, stablecoins, decentralized infrastructure (like Hive Mapper for maps and Helium for mobile networks), and real-world assets on-chain.
- Mike Dudas: “We view the crypto markets now as very real… Some of the best firms in the world… are investing in real companies across serious segments.” (09:12)
- Fun and Speculation are Essential: Memecoins’ explosive appeal is emphasized—crypto needs both its “business in the front” and “party in the back.”
- Howard: “Meme coins is the future.” (12:31)
- Mike Dudas: “Any economy needs a mixture of the serious stuff and the fun. This cycle we have sort of a better form… meme coins.” (12:46)
- JC Parets: “Why do I like meme coins? That’s where the relative strength is.” (19:46)
Accessibility and Inclusivity
- Memecoins, Inclusivity, and Ease of Use: Memecoins free trading from the walled gardens of Discord/Telegram and make speculation widely accessible, especially on Solana.
- Mike Dudas: “Meme coins are about abundance… not exclusive, but inclusive. Infinitely divisible, small numbers—total mental change.” (18:34)
- Howard: “I’m 60 years old and this is the first thing I get… It’s all technical for the most part.” (19:21)
Structural Evolution & Where It’s Heading
- Altcoins Waking Up: Chart analysis suggests “market breadth thrust”—a broadening rally, historically a start, not the end, of big moves.
- JC Parets: “Breadth thrusts historically do not come at the end of cycles… they happen consistently at the beginning.” (22:04, 23:10)
Solana’s Dominance
- Ecosystem Growth: Solana is outpacing peers in fees, application revenue, and number of breakout apps—memecoins and infrastructure play a huge role.
- Mike Dudas: “Solana is growing at a faster rate but is one-third the price of Ethereum. Many believe it’s the best way to play everything outside of Bitcoin.” (23:51)
2025 Outlook
- Continued Optimism:
- Mike Dudas: “Retail hasn’t really come yet… We just hit all-time high market cap. I’m pretty optimistic this isn’t going to be a cycle that ends in the next three to six months.” (26:44)
- Apps, Gaming and Consumer Layer: Crypto gaming is the next frontier, and proven models are leading to more developer confidence & VC investment.
- Mike Dudas: “Now you can build real applications that will keep people interested… rapid iteration and apps in weeks, not months—bullish, and going to prolong the cycle.” (26:44)
2. Axon/Taser – The Public Safety Tech Renaissance
Guest: Josh Isner
Timestamps: 33:36 – 57:24
Axon’s Evolution: From Tasers to Live Data & AI
- Origins & Innovations: Started as Taser (iconic nonlethal police weapon), then innovated to include cameras (first on Tasers, then body cams), and now runs evidence.com, the world’s largest police data set (30X Netflix’s library).
- Josh Isner: “Axon is the preeminent technology company in public safety… Started in 1993 with the Taser business… Then put a camera on the Taser, then on the police officer, then realized content management was key.” (33:58)
AI for the Real World
- Practical AI, Not Hype: Focus on automating real problems, like police report writing through their Draft One product—saving officers up to 50% of their time.
- Josh Isner: “[AI] is best at automating mundane processes… Our poster child is police reporting. Officers spend 50% of time writing reports… Our product Draft One analyzes the body camera, writes the report for the officer.” (38:38, 39:29)
Business Success and Challenges
- Growth & Structure: Axon has grown from a $300M company (2009) to $40B+—through relentless product/customer focus and organizational discipline.
- Josh Isner: “We’re relentless about finding the best people… Founder Rick Smith is a genius… The returns for investors speak to that.” (37:16)
- Public Company Frustrations: Managing quarterly Wall Street expectations is tough when value creation happens over years, not months.
- Josh Isner: “We got a lot of good ideas from Rick [Smith]; it’s about prioritizing them and running the machine.” (43:28)
- On being public: “We’ve had quarters where we’re really excited but it doesn’t meet the issue of the day for investors. We look at the full year.” (44:52)
Product Safety, Pop Culture & The Human Side
- Pop Culture: The Taser’s role in “The Hangover” and viral moments like “Don’t Tase Me Bro”—Axon embraces cultural relevance with a sense of humor but grounded mission.
- Taser Experiences: Yes, Josh has been tased (“One week into the job—gotta do it.” – 46:15). And no, you shouldn’t tase people in a pool (“Bad idea. That’s like trading leveraged meme coins.” – 48:02)
Social Impact and Training Innovation
- Protecting Life & Training: Focus on reducing gun violence, offering nonlethal alternatives, and advanced VR training for police.
- Josh Isner: “We think VR is a major part of preparing police officers… seeing about 30–40% better retention when training in VR vs. legacy types.” (50:31)
- On guns & NRA: “If we can create something… that has the same incapacitating effect without taking a life, we feel like everybody should support that.” (49:00)
Manufacturing & Supply Chain
- Made in America: Taser devices are made in Arizona; the latest models use a US-based supply chain. Axon is proactively preparing for global chip supply issues. (55:07)
3. Tech Market Trends: AI, Chips, and Shopify
Timestamps: 58:23 – 70:21
The Chip Wars: Taiwan Semiconductor & AI
- TSMC as a Linchpin: Nearly all advanced chips (including those for Nvidia and, by extension, AI/consumer tech) are made by TSMC.
- Michael Parakh: “Without chips from Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor, AI are just two letters in the English language.” (58:56)
- US-China Tensions: Heightening export controls on advanced chips and manufacturing nodes to China impacts TSMC and the whole global tech supply chain.
- Michael Parakh: “TSMC got additional instructions not to sell… advanced nodes to China. US is putting pressure through the governments of Netherlands and Taiwan.” (58:56–62:47)
- Market Signal: Technology stocks, especially semis, are underperforming for now as the market looks for new leadership.
- JC Parets: “Momentum is rolling over… semiconductors have lost momentum, now underperforming other stocks. None of those things are bullish.” (63:33)
Shopify and the Digital Commerce Recovery
- E-commerce Cycle: Shopify (Canada’s finest) survived the 2021 crash and is now benefiting from more sophisticated, margin-driven merchants in a new, healthier cycle (unlike the froth of the last decade).
- Howard: “Shopify was the poster child… The companies that survived have learned, as has Shopify. Any new bull market will be fantastic for this company because it’ll be a much richer bull market.” (66:48)
- Ad & AI Revenue: Major e-commerce aggregators, like Shopify, are pushing higher-margin AI-powered advertising, following Amazon’s lead.
- Michael Parakh: “Shopify is aggressively using AI ad targeting… much higher margin revenues through the regular e-commerce parts of the business.” (69:45)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- Mike Dudas on Mania: “If you’re not hearing about it from your Uber driver, your dentist, then we haven’t really permeated new people.” (03:41)
- Howard on Fun in Markets: “The Internet was supposed to be fun and Twitter was the funnest place on earth… meme coins, I cannot believe how easy it is to just have fun again.” (14:14)
- Howard, irreverently: “Meme coins is the future.” (12:31)
- JC Parets, on breadth thrusts: “Breadth thrusts…do not come at the end of cycles… they happen… at the beginning.” (23:10)
- Josh Isner, on mission: “I don’t know that any individual has contributed to more lives being saved in policing than Rick Smith, our CEO and founder.” (37:16)
- Howard, on Shopify: “Shopify is kind of like the front page for e‑commerce… this recovery is stronger and faster than the last one because people get smarter.” (66:48)
Key Takeaways
- Crypto’s Boom Is (Still) Early: The mania that marks tops isn’t here yet. Institutional adoption, new regulatory clarity (post-election), and truly mainstream user experiences are only just starting to blossom.
- Real Utility Is Blooming: The crypto sector is maturing; businesses are being built across payments, infrastructure, and consumer fun (memecoins) at scale.
- Memecoin Mania as a Cultural Shift: Memecoins express the essential fun, inclusivity, and speculative DNA of the new internet—easy, open, and “retail ahead of the institutions.”
- Axon as a Tech Quiet Giant: Consistent innovation and a clear mission have made Axon a defining company in public safety tech and AI for the real world.
- Chip Supply = Market Power: TSMC and supply chains remain linchpins for all things technology, with geopolitical risks front and center.
- E-Commerce: Leaner, Smarter: Shopify stands to benefit from a healthier, post-wipeout cycle, as e-commerce becomes both more essential and more sustainable.
For listeners looking to spot where “the boom” is—and isn’t—this episode fizzes with analysis, debate, and plenty of laughs.
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