TRIGGERnometry Podcast Summary

Episode: Keir Starmer is Finished. But What Did We Learn From Mandelson/Epstein Affair?
Host/Speaker: Konstantin Kisin
Date: February 16, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode features Konstantin Kisin offering a scathing monologue on the political fallout from Prime Minister Keir Starmer's appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the US, given Mandelson's known association with Jeffrey Epstein. Kisin analyzes Labour’s internal crisis, diminishing talent pool, reliance on bloc voting, and the evolving political landscape in the UK, culminating in a pessimistic but thought-provoking forecast for Labour and British politics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Starmer’s Premiership in Jeopardy

• Starmer's political fate: Kisin asserts that Starmer is "finished" – although he may stagger on for a few more months, he is very likely to be ousted by the end of the year.
  • “Starmer’s goose is cooked. He will likely survive the week for the very same reason he's extremely unlikely to survive the year.” (01:31)
• Why he’s on borrowed time: Labour is bracing for poor results in upcoming by-elections and local, Scottish, and Welsh elections; rivals see Starmer as the necessary scapegoat for impending defeats.
• Odds of removal: Kisin notes betting markets giving Starmer as high as a 70% chance of leaving office by year’s end.

2. Labour’s Talent Crisis and Ill-Advised Appointments

• Criticism of Labour’s front bench: Kisin delivers a biting critique, suggesting the party is suffering from a “dearth of talent.”
  • “Even a weak and damaged prime minister will linger on because his potential replacements are, hard as that may be to believe, even less impressive.” (03:01)
• The Mandelson appointment: Kisin frames Starmer’s choice of Mandelson—known for his closeness to Epstein—as evidence of Labour’s desperation.
• On David Lammy: Lampooned as someone more suited to "stacking shelves at Lidl" than diplomatic office.

3. The Labour-Epstein-Mandelson Scandal: Fallout and Revealed Fears

• Whatsapp leak and Muslim vote anxiety: A WhatsApp message from Health Secretary Wes Streeting reveals Labour’s panic over losing Muslim support after a "Gaza independent" victory in a key borough.
  • Quote from WhatsApp (shared by Kisin):
    “I fear we're in big trouble here and I am toast at the next election. We just lost our safest ward in Redbridge, 51% Muslim Ilford South, to a Gaza independent. At this rate, I don’t think we’ll hold either of the two Ilford seats. There isn’t a clear answer to the question why Labour?” (04:33)

4. Labour’s Reliance on Bloc Voting and Its Dilemmas

• Sectarian votes: Labour is portrayed as having fostered and relied upon bloc voting among Muslims, only to be abandoned when their stance on Israel and Gaza shifted.
• Quote:
  “For years they fostered, encouraged and profited from religious sectarianism. A significant number of the seats they hold were won by en bloc Muslim votes. Labour naïvely believed that these votes would stay with them no matter what...” (05:09)
• Reaction to the Israel-Hamas war: Kisin claims that after October 7th, Labour’s policy equivocation on Gaza led Muslim voters to form alternative voting blocs and elect “Gaza independents.”

5. Rise of the “Green Green Alliance”

• New coalitions: An emergent alliance between progressive activists (described as “deluded blue-haired extinction rebellion types”) and Muslim voters threatens Labour from the left.
  • “Across Britain a green Green alliance is emerging whereby deluded blue haired extinction rebellion types are joining forces with Muslim voters to defeat Labour.” (06:12)
• Implications: The short-term interests align: Greens gain concentrated support, Muslims gain a vehicle to pressure the government further left.

6. Labour’s Looming Collapse and What May Come Next

• Short-term future: Kisin predicts Labour will collapse further, Starmer will be replaced by someone “worse,” and the path is paved for an early general election.
  • “When Starmer goes, he’ll be replaced by somebody worse.” (06:42)
• Open question: Will an effective opposition be ready when the early election is called?

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Labour’s Bench:

  • “Most of Labour’s front bench should be stacking shelves at Lidl. Instead they're running the country.” — Konstantin Kisin (03:33)

• On Bloc Voting:

  • “Labour naively believed that these votes would stay with them no matter what, provided they continued to say and do nothing to offend this community.” — Konstantin Kisin (05:18)

• On Gaza Independents:

  • “Constituencies with high Muslim populations have elected a number of so-called Gaza independents, that is, candidates whose primary concern is an issue that has very little to do with Britain at all.” — Konstantin Kisin (05:45)

• On Political Irony:

  • “If this sounds scary and depressing, worry not… that things are so bad is in fact good news. When Starmer goes, he'll be replaced by somebody worse.” — Konstantin Kisin (06:42)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Keir Starmer’s position is untenable & politicking around his likely removal (01:19–02:45)
• Labour’s lack of talent and critical look at appointments (02:46–03:45)
• Whatsapp leak & Labour’s fears over Muslim vote loss (04:10–05:00)
• Analysis of Labour’s bloc voting strategy and its backfire (05:01–05:45)
• Formation and purpose of the Green Green Alliance (06:12–06:42)
• Predictions about Labour and the necessity for opposition (06:43–06:54)

Tone and Style

Konstantin Kisin delivers his analysis with acerbic wit and deep skepticism toward the modern Labour party. His tone is direct, unsparing, and at times, darkly humorous—often punctuated with pointed analogies and political sarcasm.

Conclusion

This episode provides a sharp, comprehensive critique of the Labour Party’s current crisis of legitimacy, personnel, and strategy following the Mandelson/Epstein scandal, while also mapping broader political realignments in the UK. Kisin warns of further turmoil, foreshadows Starmer’s political demise, and questions whether any plausible opposition will emerge from the current chaos. A must-listen (or read) for those tracking the shifting tides in British politics.