Life Update, Iran War and British Politics

Summary

TRIGGERnometry - Life Update, Iran War and British Politics
Episode Date: May 27, 2026
Hosts: Konstantin Kisin ("Sam" in transcript) & Francis Foster

Episode Overview

This episode blends a personal life update, reflections on parenthood and teaching, a deep dive into the implications of the ongoing Iran war, and a dissection of current turmoil in British politics. The episode’s tone is candid, self-deprecating, and at times, wryly humorous, with the hosts alternating between personal anecdotes and sharp political critique.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Personal & Professional Updates

• Francis’s New Book

  • Francis Foster is now a published author. The book, described as funny and poignant, draws on his experiences as a teacher in the UK school system.
  • Key Insight: The education system is in crisis, affecting both students and teachers, and the book addresses these issues with humor and honesty.
  • Anecdote: Francis recounts a moment teaching a disruptive student where he accidentally voiced his inner thoughts:

    "Why are you such a dick?" (03:01, Francis Foster)

    • A quiet girl responded innocently, "Because he just is."
  • The importance of supporting teachers and the unique challenges—like special needs students constantly facing failure—are emphasized.

• Konstantin’s Paternity Experience

  • Konstantin ("Sam") has just returned from paternity leave after the birth of his second son.
  • Reflection on Masculinity & Fatherhood: He shares that real masculinity is about providing and protecting, not material displays or bravado.
  • Quote:

    “Being a man is not driving lime Corvettes and smoking cigars... being there to provide for other people... that is a message you don't hear very often now.” (11:26, Sam)

  • The role of fathers and two-parent homes is highlighted as crucial for child outcomes.

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2. Education, Gangs, and Societal Dysfunction

• Education System's Failures

  • The hosts draw a line from early childhood instability and absentee fathers to school misbehavior, youth gang involvement, and societal dysfunction.
  • Vulnerability to Gangs: Gangs target boys without positive male role models, especially those with special educational needs.
  • Memorable Story:

    Francis tells of “Terry,” a Year 2 student who, unable to read at all, broke down at his desk.
    “The only thing left of him at the end of the lesson was his tear-stained exam paper glinting in the June sun...” (06:38, Francis Foster)

• Levity as a Coping Mechanism

  • The need for humor in discussing these heavy topics is underscored as a way to make the message bearable and engaging.

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3. Parenthood in Contemporary Society

• Changing Cultural Narratives Around Children

  • The episode critiques modern Western narratives where children are seen more as burdens than sources of meaning.
  • Quote:

    “We need to change the way that we talk about the joy that they bring... it’s kind of the meaning of life.” (14:20, Francis Foster)

  • The hosts discuss demographic trends: urbanization and modern technology as major drivers of declining birth rates, not just individual choice or pessimism.
  • Stand-up comics and media often deride parenthood, creating an unbalanced public perception.

• Fertility Myths

  • There's an open discussion about late parenthood, IVF odds, and societal "mythmaking" about having unlimited reproductive time.
  • Statistical Reality:

    “IVF success rates... anywhere from 29% to 33%. Those aren't good odds—they're one in three odds.” (20:46, Francis Foster)

  • Both men and women are affected by fertility cliffs, and honest conversations are rare.

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4. The Iran War: Geopolitics and Consequences

• War’s Economic and Political Fallout

  • The discussion transitions to the ongoing war in Iran:
    • Lasting Economic Damage:

      “The IEA called this the biggest disruption to the global oil market in history.” (29:23, Sam)

    • Oil, gas, and fertilizer shortages are running down reserves—the impact will hit hardest in the coming years.

• Lack of Strategy from the West

  • The hosts criticize the US administration’s apparent lack of a plan:

    “There was no strategy… it was made much more of an instinctive... we did Venezuela, we got Maduro, now let's do this…” (36:21, Sam)

  • The optimism of early ceasefire proponents was misplaced—hostilities and their consequences persist.

• Regime Change Unlikely

  • The likelihood of regime change or elimination of Iran’s nuclear program is considered low given the entrenched power structures and the West’s lack of credible strategic leverage.

    “You're not going to get regime change… are they going to have a ballistic missile program after this war ends? Yes, they are.” (35:05, Sam)

• Impact on Western and Global Politics

  • Economic hardships caused by the war will reverberate through domestic politics in the US, UK, and globally, providing ammunition to various factions and increasing polarization.
  • Memorable Analogy:

    “It's kind of like a UFC match where Iran have got the opponents in a chokehold and the opponents are punching in the head but they're still in a chokehold.” (33:26, Francis Foster)

  • Only 27% of American voters favor the war; most are frustrated with foreign interventions amid domestic troubles.

• Parallel to Iraq and Afghanistan

  • The hosts fear a repeat of the post-9/11 “nation-building” disasters, but this time with possibly even broader economic fallout.

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5. British Politics in Flux

• Labour Party Intrigue ([47:14])

  • Amid political turmoil, Labour’s leader Keir Starmer faces a leadership challenge following poor local election results, internal dissent, and the controversial appointment of Peter Mandelson.
  • Andy Burnham is poised to challenge, but needs to become an MP first.

• Political Fragmentation

  • The right is fracturing, with Reform and Restore parties splitting the vote, potentially keeping Labour in power despite their weaknesses.

    “For Restore to be on 7%... if that Restore vote could have been added to the Reform vote... that might be something that does not happen [a Farage PM].” (49:30, Sam)

• Electoral Systems and Coalitions

  • The UK political system is ill-suited for multi-party coalitions, which could lead to instability if no party wins a clear majority.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Experience of Teacher Disillusionment (03:01, Francis Foster):

  “Why are you such a dick?” – Francis, accidentally said aloud in class. “Because he just is.” – Student’s response.

• Masculinity and Parenting (11:26, Sam):

  “Being a man is not driving lime Corvettes and smoking cigars... being there to provide for other people...”

• Fertility Caution (20:46, Francis Foster):

  “IVF success rates... 29% to 33%. Those aren't good odds.”

• Iran War as Economic Chokehold (33:26, Francis Foster):

  “It’s kind of like a UFC match where Iran have got the opponents in a chokehold and the opponents are punching in the head but they're still in a chokehold.”

• Political Fragmentation and Consequence (49:30, Sam):

  “That might be something that does not happen because of the split, which if you're on the right I would imagine would be a terrible outcome...”

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Important Timestamps and Segments

• [01:17 – 02:48] – Francis’s Book & Teaching in Crisis
• [03:01 – 08:35] – Anecdotes from Teaching; Social Causes of School Discipline Problems
• [11:26 – 15:08] – Masculinity, Fatherhood & Family
• [15:38 – 19:33] – Having Children: Cultural Narratives and Modern Challenges
• [20:46 – 28:28] – Fertility Myths & Demographic Trends
• [28:28 – 42:05] – Iran War: Geopolitical Impact, Economic Consequences, and Foreign Policy Critique
• [47:14 – 53:13] – British Politics: Labour Leadership, Electoral Math, and Right-Wing Infighting

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Final Thoughts

This episode is a densely packed, candid exploration of how personal experience, education, and parenthood intersect with global events and domestic politics. The hosts’ reflections fuse humor with frankness and give listeners a grounded sense of both the micro and macro challenges facing individuals and societies in 2026.

Listeners will come away with:

• Sobering and personal perspectives on teaching, parenting, and masculinity.
• Nuanced analysis of the underdiscussed consequences of the Iran conflict for global stability.
• A skeptical and detailed overview of the shaky state of British politics.

Books, interviews, and future deep-dive guests are teased for upcoming episodes, inviting continued engagement from the audience.

Transcript

[Francis Foster]

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[Sam]

you've got a new book out frances foster published author i know

[Francis Foster]

who would have believed that not your

[Sam]

parents there's a lot of people talking about the problems but you do it in such a funny way that it makes for a very nice pleasant enjoyable light hearted read laughing at your expense yeah this war you know the operation epic fury wonderful but this might go

[Francis Foster]

down as epic failed only twenty seven percent of american voters are actually in

[Sam]

favor of this war this is obviously not iraq but in terms of impact on the world i think this could

[Francis Foster]

be worse now for our american viewers and listeners don't switch off don't switch off just because we're talking about british politics

[Sam]

this episode is sponsored by our friends at hillsdale college right after this episode go check out the incredible online courses which are absolutely free at hillsdale edu trigger all right francis we haven't done one of these for a couple of months so welcome back to us

[Francis Foster]

yeah welcome back it's well a lot has been happening particularly in your life

[Sam]

well in both of our lives but i've taken nearly two months to go on paternity before my second son was born and after which has been great and you've got a new book out yeah absolutely which is frances foster published

[Francis Foster]

author i know who would have believed that not your parents and certainly not any not the publishing industry either but

[Sam]

actually it is a fantastic book it's got a lot of media attention already it's very funny which is obviously your thing but it's also very poignant you talk about going through teaching as a teacher and also teaching assistant like a supply teacher basically in different schools around the country and you tell stories in a very self deprecating and funny way i really enjoyed reading and i'm not surprised how well he's doing well thank

[Francis Foster]

you very much no because i felt it's really important if you think about our show we talk about a lot of what we talk about is young people why young people are the way they are and not enough people go well that's schools but also we need better quality teachers and also we need to support teachers because you can talk about decolonizing the crip and everything like that it's really difficult to do that when a kid's about to throw a chair at your head and you've spoken yourself about homeschooling and the fact that you may be thinking about it and the reason is is because our education system is in crisis and that's kind of what the book deals with yeah

[Sam]

but it's also very very funny and enjoyable to read which i think is why people you know there's a lot of people talking about the problems but you do it in such a funny way that it makes for a very nice pleasant enjoyable lighthearted read laughing at

[Francis Foster]

your expense yeah i can tell you mate like the actual experiencing that that wasn't as funny no but no but what i wanted to do with the book is because look we are in a very difficult time and we're a very difficult time societally politically economically culturally all of these things but also i feel that there are ways to talk about an issue and you can talk about an issue and you can go this is terrible this is and of course it is but unless you're able to bring a little bit of levity to it then you need a little bit of sugar to sweeten the pill otherwise it will be a book where you put down and go well that's depressed me and actually kids are funny like i remember once when i was teaching there was a boy in front of me and i hated him and i know that's not professional he was twelve years old but you can objectively hate a twelve year old trust me and he was disrupting every lesson every lesson he was a nuisance and stopping everyone from learning and i was teaching the lesson and in my head i said the words why are you such a dick except i didn't say it in my head i said it out loud and the kids all stopped and looked at me and there was this one little girl in the front row very sweet wouldn't say boo to a goose looked up at me and went because he just is

[Sam]

well it's funny you say that because i actually don't think that's true and it's interesting how it connects with the time i've taken off to be with my family because i just look at how much effort it takes with children and i think about you know we've talked endlessly with guests and also between us and your experiences teaching just recognizing how much societal dysfunction comes from early childhood problems that are to do with the fact there's basically not enough adults around particularly dads around to deal with the developmental challenges that kids face to be there to help instill discipline to help instill some instill some kind of respect for rules and order and all of that kind of thing and so that twelve year old is probably that that twelve year old can't be saved at the level of the school no because they've been ruined by the early childhood experiences effectively

[Francis Foster]

right oh of course and if you look at things like gangs what gangs actually do and nobody talks about this enough what gangs do is they groom the kids but how can a group of young boys groom another young boy well the reason is is that young boy doesn't have a father figure he doesn't have positive male role models in the house if you think about a young boy growing up in a place like where i taught in east london in dagenham or in south london in croydon dad's not around for a multitude of different reasons so it's mum working three or four jobs struggling to make ends meet and as a result working three or four jobs never being in the home so she's never in the home so the kid basically raises himself boys crave male approval particularly from older males male and male attention and if you think that this boy then goes into school where he's most likely to be taught statistically speaking by a female teacher with female support staff with female senior management that boy then doesn't have any contact with positive male role models so the only male role models that he sees are the gangs and he craves that and what the gangs do is they're smart they look for kids that are vulnerable and what they also do is they target special needs kids and special needs kids are particularly vulnerable because if you've got a special need let's say you've got you're very dyslexic every day of your life you go into school and you fail you fail monday tuesday wednesday thursday friday you are asked to do things that you cannot do and every time you are asked to do them it has a profound impact on your self esteem and if all you know as a kid are losses that is devastating in the book i talk about one boy i covered a lesson for a colleague who had to go off and do a meeting and it was a year two exam and year two kids are seven eight years old and i put the exam paper in front of him and by the way i don't think we should be examining seven eight year olds i think that's unimaginably cruel i just wanna make that clear he looked up at me and he said the words to me mister foster i can't wait read and i said to him terry just try and he goes i can't read and i said please try because i was told that i had to he had to take the test he had to do it the kid couldn't read so we were already setting up to failure and he literally put his head on the table and cried and i said in the book i then got a member of senior management to take him away and the only thing left of him at the end of the lesson was his tear stained exam paper glinting in the june sun and you look at what we're doing to kids outside inside and it's no wonder it's no wonder we are where we are

[Sam]

i was just gonna say i mean you forget there is a happy ending to that story he's now lamebourne p

[Francis Foster]

no he's with the green party mate and it's very good but but no but you go back to those kids and so if you could take a kid like terry who every day came in and failed and was a very sweet kid the first time he's ever had someone say well done or you're doing well will be a gang member

[Sam]

right the news doesn't just tell you what's happening it often tells you what to think is happening and these days the biggest red flag isn't what's said it's what gets left out that's why i use ground news it's the only app that compares how the same story is covered across the political spectrum and show you what whole audiences are not being told the blindspot feed is one of my favorite features every day it flags upwards of twenty stories that are being ignored either by the left or the right follow along at ground news trigonometry like this a new study from uc san diego found that climate change cost almost twice as much as we thought because earlier estimates left out damage to the oceans that's a pretty big update and yet no coverage literally zero came from right leaning outlets all this a recent gallup poll found trust in the media has hit a record low with just twenty eight percent of americans saying they trust newspapers radio and tv to report the news accurately and fairly that's a staggering result but if you only read left leaning news you likely never saw it at all go to ground news trigonometry to get forty percent off their unlimited vantage plan the same one we use and stop being managed by the media of course and you know it's for that reason it's interesting because obviously masculinity and the role of men and fatherhood and all of this has became such a big talking point in the last ten years and i think jordan peterson obviously was a crucial voice in talking about that and then you know we've talked about this before how you can track the deterioration of of what masculinity is thought of as in the type of influencer that is perceived as being for answering those questions right so you go from jordan peterson who i think just incredibly overwhelmingly positive figure you know and then you just you cascade down all the way to i don't even know what the latest retardation is in clavicular or whatever right like andrew tate is starting to seem quite reasonable compared to some of these morons right but i just feel like i've taken nearly two months off now and you know how much i love what we do and i love working i've always just spent a lot of time doing it and been fully invested in it but i feel like i only really truly became a man in the last couple of months because of being able to have the luxury it's and i acknowledge completely most people can't remotely have that luxury to do that and and i didn't do it with my first son i took two weeks off but taking more time off now to be there to look after my wife particularly before during and after the birth and to be and really connect with my older son now because obviously i'm spending most of the time with him while my wife is recovering from birth so that that to me really has been the most formative experience when it comes to what being a man is more than anything else like being a man is not driving lime corvettes and smoking cigars you know it's but but you don't know that sometimes and i think people don't a lot men don't hear that message about the formative part of what masculinity is being there to provide for other people to protect for other people to look after other people that is a message that you don't hear very often now and i've just really enjoyed this time and it and it is also an investment you know the children who have a father that is heavily involved in their lives are going to have completely different life outcomes and i can see why because i look at different sort of family setups and i just go like if if i had to i think about single moms and i just go i have no idea how they do it i have no idea how they do it it's literally an impossible job it's impossible job and i know some single moms who like they've absolutely smashed it i i couldn't do that i absolutely could not do that and so it's just been a great time for me to reflect on all of this stuff and it's weird because everyone's going like oh are you sleeping off whatever i actually come back rejuvenated to be honest

[Francis Foster]

yeah and i can see that with you you know it's been a while since i've seen you but you look so happy you look rested i didn't expect that i'm gonna be honest to you mate i thought you were gonna

[Sam]

yeah i never i actually dean our social media guy he posted a clip of me talking to john anderson that elon retweeted so it's done and i looked at myself there i was like that guy looks sick i'm just pale and whatever the sun has helped as

[Francis Foster]

well yeah but you know you do you look rejuvenated it's been a wonderful time for you which has been great for you know all of us to see just how happy you are and whatever else but and for me it's always a salutary lesson because so often in our society we've framed children as being a burden we frame children as being this thing of like oh once you have kids the fun stops once you have kids you know it's all over and i make the point in the book i much prefer doing this than teaching i want to make that absolutely clear but when i think about i don't think there is a more important job than being a teacher i

[Sam]

genuinely well there is being a parent

[Francis Foster]

but yeah yeah but if you think about the impact a good teacher has literally transforms lives every single person in this room whether it's you and me talking the production team or if it's the back of people watching everybody can name that teacher who changed their life for the better however it was and i really do think we need to actually change the way we talk about kids and we need to change the way that we talk about the joy that they bring because it's not the only reason it's a multifaceted complex problem but part of it as well is kind of seen as this joy killer of the oh you've had a kid that's boring it's like well that's kind of the meaning of life look the

[Sam]

thing is as well is not like it's easy at all but i think what often happens is people who don't have kids in particular i hear them talking about this and they go oh you know i talk to parents you know when i talk to my parent friends or whatever all i hear about is how difficult it is and this and that which is true which is kind of like parents will vent about the difficulties that they face because kids kids are not easy no like my son's favorite word is no you know

[Francis Foster]

i wonder where he got that from

[Sam]

and actually it's kind of funny one of the great things about having kids is you kind of look at it and you you think about like you know we i think it's quite natural to think about the way you are as the kind of the sum total of all your work and achievements and whatever i look at my four year old i'm just like he's an asshole just like me i wonder where i got that from you know very stubborn very independent which is great this is what you want you know your kids you want them to be like that i can't even remember where i was going with this oh yeah yeah so it's not easy and people will vent their frustrations but it's also a joy like you've never felt yeah totally and i also think look it's interesting my mom is staying with us at the moment and her and i were having this conversation because she was sort of stress testing my arguments cause this is what we do in the kiesen family basically just argue with each other about kids and she was saying well you know you've got a fair bit of public influence i'd be very careful about promoting the idea of kids to people because she works with kids and she's like i see all sorts of different environments and whatever but i think the thing i'm certainly never encouraging people who are if you've made your mind up that you don't want children i don't think you should have children no i think that would be a terrible idea right but if you are sort of through the inertia of modern life and the technological changes people forget about this right but one of the main reasons that people are having kids in far fewer numbers now is urbanization i remember i took my father to we did like a father and son trip to uzbekistan last year you talk to people in uzbekistan uzbekistan is not exactly the most like super developed country beautiful place wonderful people but it's poor it's country in central asia whatever you talk to the people there they basically say the moment somebody moves from a village to the city they they go from having seven kids to having two or three yeah you know and that's you know i i think i've talked about this before on the show that there's a guy called desmond morris who wrote a book called the human zoo and he basically talked about the fact that when people live in cities they behave in very similar ways to the way that animals behave in zoos where they stop having as much offspring they get depressed there's a lot of interpersonal violence all of this other stuff so the reason that people are having fewer kids today is very largely to do with technology it's the urbanization it's the pill it's other forms of contraceptives so what i'm saying is the inertia of current society now is for people not to have children whereas one hundred years ago was the exact opposite there were it was almost inevitable that you'd have children even if it was totally the wrong decision for you so when i talk about it i'm never encouraging people who really don't want to do it to do it i'm not saying it's the right thing for everybody but what i do think is a lot of people are now by default their default setting is having kids is difficult and expensive and blah blah blah blah blah and all of those things are completely true and yet it's also if you could feel what it's like to have a child if you're on that fence i'm just trying to balance out the perspectives that you are getting through the informational space that you're exposed to by also telling you the other part which is sort of unfashionable to talk about you know it's very unfashionable for people to talk about having kids from a positive perspective you go and watch stand up comedians talk about their kids most of them will will be very negative about it you know and and likewise with everything else that you're likely to be exposed to and i just i don't think that's a balanced perspective on the issue i think it's helpful to remind people what a joy and a pleasure it is while also being difficult and expensive

[Francis Foster]

and all the rest of it i have people in my life who depend on me most of you listening do too and if you're honest with yourself you've probably had that moment where you think what happens to them if i'm not here tomorrow it is not a fun question but ignoring it does not make it go away this is why i think today's sponsor ethos life insurance is worth paying attention to through ethos you apply in minutes receive a quote instantly and get same day coverage no medical exam you just answer a few simple health questions the whole process is one hundred percent online and you can get up to three million dollars in coverage with some policies starting as low as thirty bucks a month ethos has four point eight out of five stars on trustpilot with over four thousand reviews take ten minutes to get covered today with life insurance through ethos get your free quote at ethos dot com trigger or click the link in the description of this episode that's et t dash o s dot com trigger application times may vary rates may vary it's a great point and then there's another part of this conversation that we have touched on many times actually in the history of trigonometry which is we've lied to women about kids and we've lied about the nature of fertility the idea that you can just freeze your eggs and then have a baby whenever you want i mean if you look at the stats from ivf treatments success rates vary depending on what study you look at anywhere from twenty nine percent to thirty three percent those aren't good odds they're one in three odds and what we're effectively doing as a society is fertility wise we're drinking in the last chance saloon which is all well and good but not everyone's going to get served because they just ain't time no and

[Sam]

i think you know i always try and be very careful talking about this issue because these are very sensitive things for people but those are not good odds no if you were to say we're gonna gamble a very important decision in our lives on something and there's a thirty three percent chance of success you wouldn't think that's a good bet

[Francis Foster]

really no and i think we need to be sensitive about this of course we do but i think it's also important that we talk openly about it because i think there's a lot of myths that are being spread around the technology and i've seen my own friends go through it and you see that the impact that it has on them these aren't easy decisions and look life sometimes happens you don't meet the right person until later on in life of course and it's not about blaming or saying people should do things at a point when it's not right for them but we just do need to have the conversation go look later on it might be possible but these are the odds and this is what could happen or could occur and i think that's

[Sam]

really vital i completely agree with you i think we should have someone on to talk about the reality of fertility partly because i think certainly when we talk to people privately we meet a lot of people now who are our age or a bit younger who or a bit older frankly who either are kind of in a desperate situation or who've missed the boat yeah and it's it's it's something that a lot of women in particular find very difficult to talk about because once it's no longer going to happen that's i mean it's got to be an awful place to be and then so and so i think i guess what i would say is there's just not a lot of conversation to reflect a much larger underlying reality i was thinking about this the other day with politics like you know it's funny the impression you would get about the range of acceptable political opinions in the country is totally not what it is based on what you see in the media for example is it really possible that literally nobody in the world of football in this country has come out and expressed the sort of concerns that we've shared on the show is it really possible that a bunch of millionaires are massively in favor of like a wealth tax and are all left wing and all the rest of it i just don't think that's true in fact we both know that's not true right from direct personal experience there are many people in the world of football who don't feel that way or other sports professional sports but if you open your newspaper or if you go on you watch tv you will never see anybody simon jordan's the only person from the world of football and he's not a football player right who will express anything remotely approaching a contrarian perspective on these things yet there are people from almost every major professional sport in this country that contact us privately or follow our show and we know what they think about it boxing football rugby you know other other sports and that's also true of this conversation in that because there's just some for whatever reason we don't even need to get into it something is not talked about enough the reality that exists on the ground is not reflected in the talking point conversation stuff that you see on tv and in the newspapers and that's kind of where we've always seen our role really is to pierce those bubbles and to connect the reality on the ground with what's actually being talked about out

[Francis Foster]

loud and i think also it's very eloquently put but also what we do here is we challenge and debunk myths and there's been a lot of myths that we have debunked from the time that we started this to where we are now everything from defund the police to mask wearing and all the rest of it we weren't the only ones of course not but we were we like we played a small but significant part i would like to think and i'm sure you do as well and i think this is a very powerful but also very damaging myth as a lot of myths are which is you can have it all and you can you can leave it right until the end of your fertility window and then you can have your kids and i really think that that we need to sit down some people can some people

[Sam]

i mean in fairness that is exactly what my wife and i did we had our first one at thirty nine we had our second one at forty three yeah right but we are very very unrepresentative of and very unusual so people don't believe me when i tell this story my wife's grandfather was the eighteenth of eighteen kids in a peasant ukrainian family yeah he was born when his mother nobody believes when i say this but this is a true thing his mother was sixty three when he was born wow yeah she was the eighteenth of eighteen and his mother was sixty three so like you know genetics is a part of this and you might come just from a lineage where that's more possible than it is for other people but statistically speaking what we've

[Francis Foster]

done is you are the outlier yeah you're the outlier and we need to we need to be honest about that and we also there's a lot of women who pass a relatively early age can't have children and also as well like men it's not just women it's also guys and just go look the quality of your sperm my sperm's brilliant i've seen it yeah pretty good you

[Sam]

know the offspring francis is my wife

[Francis Foster]

no i wouldn't well anyway i am now i am now we sleep in separate beds anyway so that was weird but if you look at like male with particularly male sperm and correlation with autism rates particularly as sperm gets older it becomes more correlated with producing kids who have autism you go well we all need and people look at me and go francis what about you yeah you're right you're right i'm not saying i'm on i'm not part of this particular issue because i obviously am but i do think we actually need to be honest about this and one of the things we need to do is get a fertility expert to sit down and not from a position of you know you do this and you should do this and wake up but just go look you live your life as you want you made the decisions that you want that's the beauty of the west that's one of the best things about our culture is that you can go and live the life that you desire within within certain parameters but this is the truth and then you are now more informed and then you're able to make your choice with the information

[Sam]

at hand speaking of you know difficult conversations i mean one of the things that happened while we were doing our separate things is the war in iran continued it was interesting because we gave that issue a lot of coverage when it first started and when we were in america that was a developing story and i would guess i would say you know we interviewed senator ted cruz we interviewed mehdi hassan and had the discussion with him we interviewed robert pape and there was i don't remember a few weeks ago there was a ceasefire that was agreed and at that point i got sort of like told you so messages from a bunch of former guests and other people going i told you this would be over quickly i told you this wouldn't be such a big i told you look at robert pape he was so wrong about that and as i look at the news now it's still going on not only that i mean they're talking about a deal but i don't know that a deal is going to be done quickly and if it is i don't think there's any evidence to suggest where we sit today that that deal is going to be any better than the deal might have been done before this war ever occurred i mean don't forget global brent crude oil prices are now sixty percent higher than they were a year ago inflate and by the way the reason a lot of people have stopped talking about this issue is everyone gets tired of talking about the same thing and so like it was like the war in ukraine it was everywhere for a year and then everyone just kind of moved on the war didn't stop but the thing with iran is like i think most people don't realize that the economic impact directly and i'm not talking about a three percent increase in the price of whatever i'm talking about real economic impact will will last for years from this the iea called this the biggest disruption to the global oil market in history what's happened and that's not just it's not just oil it's gas it's fertilizer it's all this stuff and most of the impact hasn't been felt so what's happening at the moment is it's like there's no more food in the supermarket but your fridge is still mostly stocked so you are still able to eat for now and what we're doing now is we're running down our gas supplies we're running down our oil supplies around the west and by the way this no one talks about this but i think it's worth raising is an issue is a direct result of the war in iran both the united states and britain and many other countries have lifted sanctions on russia yeah like that has impact i don't know if you saw this the united states just said that they would not be providing interceptors to taiwan to be able to defend itself in the quantity that they were going to because they need them for the straight of hormuz they need them for the middle east they need them for the this is a thing that's not over and it's going to continue to have an impact to say nothing about the fact that you missed one planting season with fertilizer issues that means less food next year and that's where we are today ted cruz who we had on our show who said this would be over very quickly blah blah blah you know if this is still going on by the time of the midterms we've clearly failed he's now warning that president trump may be from what i read kind of caving too early on these negotiations and so trump is now extending it and whatever but my point is all those people who were delighted about the ceasefire several weeks ago i don't hear from them now and the longer this goes the less convinced i am that the people who cheered this war on from the beginning were right i don't see it that way if i'm honest spring is

[Francis Foster]

coming which sounds great in theory more going on more to do less time to actually eat properly story of my life this is where huel comes in h u e l sponsor of the show and genuinely something we've been using at trigonometry i am absolutely the person who gets to midday and realizes i've had coffee just coffee not even a good coffee so i've been keeping huel black edition around to stop myself from doing that on the days i'm out the door fast i grab a black edition ready to drink it's a complete meal not a snack not a supplement and an actual complete meal thirty five grams of protein twenty seven essential vitamins and minerals no artificial sweeteners gluten free and it's under five pounds cheaper than a meal deal and it actually keeps me full chocolate peanut butter is the one by the way genuinely good then when i'm home and i've got a bit more time i use the black edition powder blend it with milk and ice if i'm being fancy shake it with water if i'm not same complete nutrition forty grams of protein just a different format depending on how the day's going between the two i've basically stopped skipping meals which if you know me is an achievement shut your face i'm not that fat here's a limited time offer get heuel today with my exclusive offer of fifteen percent off online with my code trigger fifteen at huel dot com trigger fifteen new customers only thank you to huel for supporting trigonometry well let's look at what we've learned from this wall what have we actually learned that if you attack iran you can kill a leader you can kill the top brass but the reality is iran have a stranglehold on the world's economy because of the strait of hormuz they can close it down like that just through one drone attack so the reality is unless you are going to commit to putting boots on the ground in order to try and get rid of the leadership you are not going to get rid of them through airstrikes they're too entrenched it's not gonna happen and by the way the moment you do that that doesn't only affect iran that doesn't only affect the middle east it affects every single country in the world and also as well you look at those middle eastern countries they're now more fearful of iran because the uae and other countries are looking at iran and going well if we antagonize them in any way they're going to lash out like they lashed out before iran you could argue in some ways have come out of this stronger than they went in because they've got some very powerful cards to play they have played them and they have played them in a very effective manner and there's been a lot of bluster from trump and the republican party in america flexing of the muscles but it's like i was talking to you it's kind of like a ufc match where iran have got the opponents in a chokehold and the opponents are punching in the head but they're still in a chokehold and there's no

[Sam]

letting go yeah that's the way it looks at the moment obviously it can change day to day but i just see you know i think there came a point when i just stopped listening to what the administration was saying to be honest cause every day it was like a new thing and clearly it's designed for misdirection and you know rah rah rah cheering the war on i just as i look at it as we sit here today end of may it's been three months i don't think as we sit here today there's any evidence at all that you're i mean clearly you're not going to get regime change which is one of the things that people talked about right i mean ted cruz wanted that he talked about this on our show that's not going to happen let's be honest is the ballistic missile program going to be okay some of it's been destroyed but are they going to have a ballistic missile program after this war ends yes they are yeah are they gonna have a nuclear program we don't know that's what's been negotiated but i don't see why they'd let it go because one of the things you gotta remember right yes the us is also blockading the strait yes that's hurting iran yes that's hurting china blah blah blah but iran have every incentive to hold on for dear life because the longer this goes the more desperate the americans become that's just a fact that is the fact of this process and so they're not rushing into anything and of course they want to come away from this with some elements of their nuclear program intact and now they also have at least in their own mind but also in the minds of other neutral countries the legitimacy to take more control over the strait of hormuz and as you say to keep a chokehold or to threaten to have a chokehold on the global economy through that and so you know we one of the things that was very clear to us from our us trip and we can't talk about the conversations we had because they were had in private but it became very clear to us that the administration made these decisions not as part of a big vision and strategy but as a much more of an instinctive you know we did venezuela we got maduro now let's do this we'll you know we're on a roll here that literally is the way people in the administration told us it was made that's what we know it's not something we've just made up there was no strategy and i'm afraid i want america to come out of this and the rest of the west to come out of this with a great result and iran should not be allowed to get nuclear weapons it should not but at the same time i think if you look at where we are today it seems to me very unlikely that any of those objectives are going to be fulfilled and the damage that will have been done to the world economy is going to be significant it already is significant well i was looking

[Francis Foster]

at the polling from american voters only twenty seven percent of american voters are actually in favor of this war the vast majority of them are quite annoyed by this war and they say why are you focusing on wars abroad when a you promised that you wouldn't do that and b there are very real significant economic problems in this in the country and then you've got to look at so the strait of hormuz and the crisis in the strait of hormuz is going to affect the whole world economically but as a result of affecting the whole world economically it's going to affect the whole world politically what's that going to do to politics in our country for example if i was zach polanski i would be saying well you know do you really want to go with the right do you really want to go with the right that has aligned itself with donald trump who has fought a war which has meant that life is already incredibly difficult for you they've made your life more difficult the very little money that you've got in your pocket you've got nothing you've got even less now simply because they decided to fight a war and that would be the smart ploy it would be

[Sam]

and look the fair counter argument is what i said earlier which is iran can't be allowed to have nuclear weapons and maybe the argument is well how do you get them to not have them except for bombing them i don't know but i think it just seems like this war has been it was ill thought through and look epic fury as a military operation massive success well done you know you bombed out of what you wanted to bomb you destroyed this you destroyed that but this war look i don't know how this is going to end i hope that trump can pull out some kind of magic trick out of a hat and of the deal and all of this other great stuff right now this war you know the operation epic fury wonderful but this might go down as epic fail this war in the total sum of what it achieves that obviously depends on the deal we don't know what that's gonna look like at the moment but right now it's not looking good no

[Francis Foster]

and one thing that i've always been baffled by and i haven't understood there's a lot of very intelligent people who are working in the white house there's a lot of very intelligent advisors military strategists so on and so forth but the straight of hormuz i mean that's pretty obvious what would happen why did they not predict this and if they did predict this why didn't they have a strategy for it did they not foresee that this was going to happen because everybody that i've spoken to with any type of military background or middle eastern geopolitical expertise when i asked them about it they went oh yeah guts that's pretty much everyone knew this was gonna happen and you think what if that's the case why did nobody create a strategy in order to deal with

[Sam]

it and this is where you have to say that the questions some people are asking of the trump administration the administration prioritized loyalty in the second term because they had to because their first term was spent dealing with leakers dealing with people who were dishonest dealing with people who were borderline traitors in some cases right so they had to prioritize people who would be loyal over other things and so perhaps one of the things that caused this is there was an over focus on loyalty and therefore there's nobody who's prepared to speak truth to power in that white house or not enough people or the questions aren't i don't know i'm not there and so i can't judge but given the conversations that we had in private in the us and also what we've seen since i mean let's be honest our conversation with robert pape i think is approaching a million views now and there's a reason for that which is everything he said turned out to be correct yeah basically right i don't remember a single thing he said that has not transpired in the two months since we

[Francis Foster]

sat down with him i went to my dry cleaner the other day to pick up some suits there's a turn there's a turn and he went i goes oh i watched your podcast i'm so oh yeah which one did you watch and he the robert pate and he basically said i didn't understand this war and how it was gonna turn out he goes i listened to that and now i do yeah and that's

[Sam]

pretty worrying yeah because what he was saying if for people who didn't watch it or don't remember is basically america's put itself in a trap and this will either get worse or america will have to capitulate effectively that's what he was saying that's because of the geography and the economic realities those are the only options or he talked about the fact that america could try and escalate by putting boots on the ground which would be even worse than both of those two things that's kind of where we are i'm afraid it's just where we are and i take no pleasure in this because as i say i think iran is a regional threat them having nukes is not something the world should accept and i applaud president trump for trying to do something about it but i just never thought that this was the thing to do given the lack of a clear strategy for how to achieve the objectives and i also i have to be honest man i empathize with a lot of the pro iranian activists and the iranian protesters in iran let's call it what it is man they were sold a lie they were told rise up and your freedom is at hand but that was never actually on the table it was never

[Francis Foster]

going to happen the american founding is one of the most consequential political experiments in human history and it nearly didn't happen a group of people who had everything to lose decided that some things were worth more than safety and the world has never been the same since hillsdale college have made a film about exactly that it's called revolutionary america it's narrated by tom selleck and it brings the founding to life through the people who actually lived it alongside historians who understand what was genuinely at stake what struck me watching the trailer is how seriously it treats the audience no editorializing no revisionism just the story told properly with the weight it deserves this is a theatrical release not a streaming drop and it only runs for three days may thirty first to june second go to hillsdale edu revolution find a theater near you and buy your tickets that address again hillsdale edu revolution and i learned this when we were interviewing richard min dean yeah and eamon said there's roughly two hundred thousand soldiers in the irgc not all of them are highly ideological but the majority of them are and that's discounting the secret police that's discounting the military and then you think to yourself well these people they're going to rise up but i mean that's certain death and then you think to yourself what we actually did is well these people were promised a lie and as a result of that some of them lost their lives and what my worry was when the whole conflict started is i just remembered iraq and afghanistan and i thought to myself please not again please we cannot make the same mistakes we made twenty odd years ago we cannot go down that path i don't want to see that i don't want to see the people dying on either side and then the effect it had on our psyche which is still being felt nowadays no the people of

[Sam]

iran are perfectly entitled to rise up and try and have the government that they want that's their right but for other people outside to effectively say to them rise up and we will come and help you and then not help them yeah that's a whole different conversation yeah and that is what happened yeah that's what happened that's my issue the people of iran you know i get it no totally totally and also i think your comparison is very very apt about iraq in particular but i think we should be honest in terms of loss of life on the western side this is obviously not iraq at all at the moment thank god but in terms of impact on the world i think this could be worse i really do i really i mean the iraq had call impact on the global economy really yeah iran is having one and will have one over time so i hope it gets resolved quickly and we'll obviously monitor it and we'll we'll get back to what we used to do before we took the time off which is do live streams regularly with people who can comment on these things in a much more knowledgeable way so we'll keep tracking this issue and then of course we've had the domestic politics side of things while i've been away which i have not been paying much attention to and i have to say my mental health has improved massively so maybe

[Francis Foster]

you can update us so this is effectively what happened keir starmer is our beloved prime minister indeed wes streeting said that he no longer had faith well

[Sam]

hold on a second you're skipping over some bits first of all there was the peter mandelson thing yes right so he was appointed despite everybody knowing that he was anansa's best friend yes basically is that fair yeah so that put pressure on starmer then there was the local elections in which labour performed terribly so did the tories yeah reform did very well and there's now pressure on starmer to go from his own ministers and backbenchers and that's where we're treating

[Francis Foster]

yeah and then we're treating said that he no longer has faith on keir starmer to be able to lead labour to victory in the next election everyone just looked him and went i mean yeah i mean of course which then precipitated a challenge to keir starmer's leadership which came from andy burnham who is the mayor of manchester of greater manchester now for our american viewers and listeners don't switch off don't switch off just because we're talking about british politics andy burnham can't challenge keir starmer because andy burnham is not a minister a member of parliament so andy burnham needs to become a member of parliament so the labour mp for a place called makerfield which is where my father's from actually stood down and they have what is called a by election which is a small election in that particular membership in that particular constituency to see who will be a member of parliament to replace him and at the moment andy burnham is slightly in the lead we have reform just behind and we have restore on seven percent greens put in a candidate then they took out a candidate because it was like well it's mainly white people ninety six percent white so and they're working class so this really isn't our you know we're not going to do a lot here conservatives look like they're going to lose their deposit so it's very very interesting to see where this will go and my favorite part of all of this is keir starmer said he's going to help andy burnham canvas for votes which is the biggest cock block i've ever heard well

[Sam]

we will see what happens with it obviously we don't know exactly i mean i don't think starmer is going to last a year it's hard to see how he would but maybe i don't know we'll see and obviously this the the fracturing of the right is another ongoing thing that we'll keep monitoring as time goes on for restore to be on seven percent is from a you know from a low start is obviously significant and if they if if labor if burnham squeaks in and that restore vote could have been added to the reform vote you can obviously see that playing out in the general election where the thing that was almost i would argue inevitably going to happen which is a reform win maybe not reform majority but a farage as prime minister that might be something that does not happen because of the split which if you if you're on the right i would imagine would be a terrible outcome but that may be what happens it may

[Francis Foster]

be a terrible outcome because it may be in a general election let's say greens take a significant chunk from labor labor do okay the greens are not

[Sam]

if it's if it's a choice between reform and or restore and the left the left will unite yeah maybe we'll

[Francis Foster]

see we will see we will see but my point is something else and

[Sam]

andy burnham will put on the burqa

[Francis Foster]

say the magic words and you know what we're gonna get a safer country mate of course the laws will be rigorously enforced there'll be a lot less theft yeah there will be and living in london that might be a good thing no that will anyway so but what may happen is that we're going to be faced with a coalition no matter what and it might be very difficult for people to form coalitions because nobody's in any clear majority and the

[Sam]

political system is not designed for it yeah so we will see what happens but in the meantime we'll watch labor stab each other in the front and we'll keep covering that issue as well over time now that we're back and we've got by the way people don't know this we still haven't released some of our incredible interviews from the america trip we've got dwarkesh patel we've got an amazing interview about the fact that depression isn't caused by a chemical imbalance that we recorded here we've got a great interview with s anthony beaver about russia and russian history loads of other we've got an interview coming up with a a teacher who went viral during his testimony in in in congress talking about the impact of screens on kids just like loads of amazing stuff some of it which i haven't even mentioned yet to come out and also we're getting stuck back into recording some amazing interviews that people will if they are supporters of ours on substack they're going to get a chance to ask their questions and to know who those people

[Francis Foster]

are and get all of that brilliant extra content as well and also we've got one of my favorite interviews that we did in america that we haven't spoken about that you haven't mentioned which is the wonderful interview with ed hussein and the history of the muslim brotherhood and islamism and islamism and if you are in any way interested as to why to truly understand why islamic fundamentalism took a stranglehold in certain countries why is it that we're seeing the very real effects of that here with terrorism the anti semitic attacks you have to watch that interview it explains everything and editing that interview is utterly magnificent yeah

[Sam]

and it gets a little spicy at

[Francis Foster]

times as well it does it does

[Sam]

so with that everybody should get your book uneducated educated appropriately titled by francis foster it's fantastic it's already doing really well and by the way francis if you buy the book this week it really helps francis to get on the sunday times bestseller list so make sure to do it when you hear this when you watch this straightaway don't put it off do it now give them your money

[Francis Foster]

sam