TRIGGERnometry – LIVE Iran Update with Mahyar Tousi

Date: January 8, 2026
Guests: Mahyar Tousi (Iranian commentator, YouTuber), Hosts – Amir, Francis Foster

Episode Overview

This live episode of TRIGGERnometry addresses the ongoing, underreported mass uprising in Iran. Mahyar Tousi, an Iranian commentator with deep personal and family ties to the country, joins hosts Amir and Francis to present up-to-the-minute insights about the situation on the ground, the regime’s response, the psychology of the protests, international dynamics, and media failures. The conversation is unfiltered, urgent, and pushes back against the mainstream media’s notable silence.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Scale and Nature of Iran’s Uprising

• Background & Trigger (00:28)

  • Protests erupted 12 days prior due to mounting economic woes and long-brewing resentment against the Islamic Republic.
  • Notably, this is not isolated to one or two cities, but over 100 cities now have active uprisings.
  • Previous uprisings were manageable for the regime; this time, the regime appears to be collapsing under the pressure.

• Regime’s Response Escalates (01:49)

  • Early crackdowns were relatively “restrained” compared to the past, possibly because of Donald Trump’s public warnings.
  • Official death toll is ~40 (regime figures) but real casualties could be higher.
  • Security forces have withdrawn, with the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – military-level) brought in. Gunfire and open warfare reported.

• “Tonight is huge” (02:43)

  • Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, main opposition leader, called for mass nationwide protests at 8pm. Millions reportedly participated.
  • Emergence of national unity among protesters, with chants for the monarchy’s restoration.

2. Regime Brutality, Hospitals & Crimes Against Humanity

• Hospital Raids (04:06)
  • Regime targets hospitals to arrest injured protesters, to avoid visible street killings and suppress evidence.
  • In one case, locals raided a makeshift prison to free the detained.
  • Innocent patients get caught up in these brutal raids, turning even regime supporters against the government.
  • “This is literally right now crime against humanity. And we’re not really seeing anything from the United Nations.” — Mahyar Tousi [05:08]

3. Motives behind the Uprising

• Not Just Economics (05:48)

  • While economic hardship is real, protesters are not chanting about inflation or taxes. From day one, calls have been for the end of the Islamic Republic and the return of the monarchy.
  • The regime’s corruption, repression, and funding of foreign militias (Hezbollah, Hamas) have all fueled resentment.

• Coordination & Learning (07:00)

  • Protest leaders, the diaspora, and royalist networks have learned from past failures.
  • “People in reality have been just waiting for an opportunity… this is coordinated.” — Mahyar Tousi [06:58]

4. International Response: The Trump Factor

• Trump’s Warnings (08:23)

  • Trump has warned the regime not to kill protesters en masse; further escalation (“we will hit them very hard”) is promised.
  • Debate on what would trigger US intervention—widespread massacres, not small-scale killings.

• Possible US/Israeli Actions (08:40, 09:32)

  • Suggestions include targeted strikes on regime headquarters or capturing top leadership.
  • Mahyar voices Iranian desires for leadership to be captured, rather than allowed exile, but notes practical complications.

5. The “No Way Out” for Regime Leaders

• Existential Crisis for Regime (09:57)

  • Leadership has few options; exile is risky as they face prosecution if extradited. Only Russia remains as a plausible safe haven.

• Likely Outcomes (12:12)

  • Possibility of prolonged civil war if neither side collapses soon.
  • Reports of some IRGC families seeking asylum abroad; cracks starting to show.

6. The On-the-Ground Situation

• Communication Blackout (12:34)
  • Regime has shut down internet and phone lines; updates are lagging.
  • Despite danger, morale among protesters remains high—“they believe Trump is behind them and the Crown Prince gave them instruction…” — Mahyar Tousi [13:19]
  • Some Iranians use Starlink to share footage; live gunfire and clashes being reported.

7. Legitimacy of Reza Pahlavi as Opposition Leader

• Shift in Popular Sentiment (15:28)
  • Past royalist support was marginal; now, unity around Reza Pahlavi is unprecedented and youth-driven.
  • “Everybody is saying Reza Pahlavi… there is a massive unity behind one name.”
  • Plan is for the Crown Prince to head a transitional government, then hold a referendum.

8. Regional and Global Players

• Gulf States, Israel, Regional Dynamics (18:23)

  • Saudi Arabia, UAE oppose Iranian regime but unlikely to intervene directly; Israel is more openly aggressive due to direct threats.
  • Mahyar clarifies that “the Americans… it’s the world police, whether you like it or not.”
  • Potential for a more stable Middle East if a new Iran emerges.

• Russian & Chinese Stance (32:45)

  • Russia and China provide quiet support (equipment, possible flights), but are pragmatic—not likely to intervene militarily for Iran.
  • Mahyar: “They can’t afford to risk the world order over one tiny friend like the Islamic Republic.”

9. Media Silence and New Media’s Role

• Failure of Mainstream Media (23:01)
  • Hosts criticize mainstream outlets (BBC, CNN) for ignoring the story, reporting only regime statements.
  • “Intellectual laziness” and rigid adherence to official sources among mainstream journalists.
  • New media networks (including Mahyar’s own TCTV) are verifying and disseminating real, on-the-ground information.
  • “Don’t wait for the Islamic Republic official sources to tell you what’s going on in Iran.” — Mahyar Tousi [25:24]

10. Speculation on the Fall of the Regime

• Will There Be a Coup or Targeted Strike? (29:38)
  • Mahyar notes that replacing individual leaders (like the head of the IRGC) is not enough—regime is cult-like, not easily toppled.
  • Regime’s top leadership (Khamenei and family) reportedly has an escape plan for Moscow if their own forces falter.

Notable Quotes & Moments (With Timestamps)

• On regime collapse:
  “The regime, 12 days in a row, 12 battles. The Iranian people have been having, taken control of over 100 cities around the country.” — Mahyar Tousi [00:49]

• On hospital brutality:
  “They raid the hospital and start kidnapping [the injured]… this is literally right now crime against humanity. And we're not really seeing anything from the United Nations.” — Mahyar Tousi [04:14, 05:08]

• On protesters' demands:
  “Did they talk about high taxes or lack of jobs? No, none of those things were mentioned… From day one: two chants—one is chanting against the Islamic Republic to go away, and secondly for the Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi to come back to his country.” — Mahyar Tousi [06:10]

• On Western media silence:
  “We’ve got over 10,000 people watching... because they're not getting this information on the mainstream media.” — Amir [22:00]
  “It's just intellectual laziness that's been created by the media class in general.” — Mahyar Tousi [23:39]

• On American intervention:
  “President Trump has gone all out. So he's gone too deep. Now if, for example, there's a massacre tonight... he's going to have to do something. And President Trump doesn't like to lose.” — Mahyar Tousi [10:12]

Important Timestamps

• Protests’ Scale & Regime Response — [00:28–01:49]
• Hospital Raids & Crimes Against Humanity — [04:06]
• Root Causes of the Uprising — [05:48–07:53]
• Trump’s Stand and Options — [08:23–09:57]
• Existential Dilemma for the Regime — [10:23–12:04]
• On-the-Ground Updates and Morale — [12:34–14:45]
• Is Reza Pahlavi a Credible Future Leader? — [15:28–18:02]
• Media Critique & Journalism Discussion — [22:00–25:59]
• Regional Players & International Stakes — [18:23, 32:45]

Tone & Language

The episode is urgent, passionate, and unfiltered, reflecting both the gravity of the unfolding events and frustration with global media silence. The language is candid, combining on-the-ground realism, sharp political analysis, and a degree of skepticism towards institutions.

Summary

This timely episode dissects the extraordinary grassroots revolt in Iran, highlighting not only the extent and intensity of popular resistance but also the cracks appearing within the regime. Mahyar Tousi offers rare direct insights into developments, regime brutality, and the power of popular unity rallying around the formerly-exiled Crown Prince.

The episode is distinct for its criticism of mainstream journalism’s inertia, its nuanced discussion of international power dynamics, and heartfelt solidarity for those risking everything on the streets. With major implications for the region and global geopolitics, it offers a vital window into a developing revolution—one that, as the hosts stress, you’re unlikely to hear about on any mainstream news outlet.