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Live Reaction to Makerfield By-Election with Dan Hodges and Julia Hartley-Brewer
01:02:13
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- [00:01]
Host 1
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- [03:42]
Host 2
FOREIGN. Hello, everybody, and a very warm welcome to Trigonometry, the only show on YouTube where you're going to get an underwear advert followed by an interview with an eminent historian talking about why Britain is screwed. We're joined tonight to analyze the by election make a field by election, which Andy Burnham overwhelmingly won by two brilliant broadcaster Julia Hartley Brewer and journalist Dan Hodges. Welcome to you both. Wonderful to have you on. Dan, before we go to Julia, you were on the ground during the by election, talking to people there. What did you hear? What did people say to you? And why do you think Andy Burnham secured the overwhelming result that he did?
- [04:31]
Dan Hodges
Well, I think there are a number of things. I mean, Andy Burnham won the by election because he was Andy Burnham, not because he was Andy Burnham the Labour candidate. I mean, I, as he said, I mean, I spent the best part of a month up there and if you like, the Burnham effect was. Was real. Roughly half of the people in the constituency seemed to know Andy Burnham personally and the other half thought they knew him personally. And it was noticeable yesterday, just sort of being outside polling stations. I had people saying to me, I voted Reform. I had some people saying I voted Restore. And then I'd have people saying, I voted for Andy. So, firstly, there was a very, very. It was very clear there was a very strong personal vote for him. And I think that that will be significant moving forward because I think it does raise questions about the extent the obviously incredibly successful campaign that was waged by him in Makerfield can be transported to other parts of the United Kingdom. I mean, the other obvious factor was that this was a byelection that, to all intents and purposes was primarily a referendum on Keir Starmer. And as we know, the people of Britain have made their minds up about Keir Starmer months and months ago. And you know, Andy Burnham's strategy of saying vote for me today and I'll get rid of Keir Starmer on, on Friday or basically next week was obviously very successful at the ballot box and as we can see it playing out today, seems also to be successful in terms of broader politics. But the other thing was, and I, you know, I'm sure we'll get into this, I think first I, I think there was also an element of, that this was a referendum more broadly across the constituency on Nigel Farage, his offer and Reform's offer. And I think what we've seen cemented in Makerfield is something that we've seen and I think we've seen developed, developing for a considerable period now, which is the shine is definitely coming off Nigel Farage and Reform. And coupled with that we are now starting to see quite organized, quite sophisticated, quite active anti reform coalition that is developing in constituencies across the country. And I think that has also has very significant implications for our politics moving forward.
- [07:22]
Host 2
Well, to your point, the left was almost, the left wing vote was almost entirely given to Andy Burnham in this election. The Greens got nothing. The Lib Dems basically didn't even register from what I could see on the different charts, etc. But I was going to ask you, you talk to a lot of people when you're on the ground, what surprised you the most? Hearing from people just talking to ordinary people who were voters in this constituency?
- [07:48]
Dan Hodges
Well, I'll be honest, I wasn't massively surprised because I thought, I mean I wasn't one of the people who thought, you know, this was a nip and tuck, you know, going to be a tight by election from, you know, the first few days I was there, it, it seemed to me there was a, there was a strong move behind Andy Burnham. I, I mean, I think what surprised me was to all intents and purposes at, at the beginning of the contest if, if you walked around the constituency and obviously I, I'd been walking around similar constituencies just a few weeks before in the local elections. It kind of had the feel of a, what I would call a traditional reform constituency. You know, it, with all the issues that, you know, you've obviously articulated on this program and we've all talked about before about, you know, post post industrial northern sort of working class British decline, it's all there in, in, in Makerfield, you know, you you, you walk around sections of the, the constituency and you see significant, significant areas of the constituency which have, you know, union flags hanging from flagpoles, etc. And when I first arrived there, it seemed to me this was, as I say, you know, fertile ground for reform and indeed, you know, to all intents and purposes, reform were maybe favorites for the seat. But as I said, it became clear sort of quite early that the Burnham factor, the inversion of the sort of vote for me reforms, vote for us, ditch Starmer message was very potent. But also, and it was something I did start to pick up in the local elections as well, there are now serious issues for the reform project and the Nigel Farage project.
- [09:45]
Host 1
Julia, Dan has already touched on this, but let's talk about reform because that is a very disappointing result for them, isn't it?
- [09:54]
Julia Hartley Brewer
Well, Nigel Farage issued a statement on X saying just that. But I mean, one point worth making, they got 35% of the vote. I mean, I don't think that's what most people would regard as a disappointing result in a by election. I mean, it was an extraordinary big vote for Andy Burnham. But bearing in mind that the two leading candidates, Andy Burnham and Rob Kenyon for the Reform were basically, basically standing on exactly the same platform. Vote for me, get rid of Keir Starmer. The thing about Andy Burnham was he was offering to do it rather sooner than Rob Kenyon could do. I, I think, genuinely, with all due respect to Daniel, was regular on my show as well, I know him for many years, a huge respect. I think this is classic Westminster bubble, completely over interpreting a vote which was clearly a. He talks normal, he wears a T shirt, not a tie. Not sure that's going to go down very well in number 10 for a lot of voters. He, you know, is a nice guy, he's got charisma, he's, you know, Andy Burnham, you know, he did a great job as basically sort of waving the flag for the north, for Manchester in particular, obviously during lockdown when the Westminster classes were forgetting how hard life was in all the various tears and lockdowns for people outside London and, and there's loads of appeal there. The thing everyone forgets is that he wasn't offering anything other than change. Now that's what Keir Starmer offered in 2024, in July that year and we were coming up to that two year anniversary and we didn't get much detail in his manifesto. We've got even less from Andy Burnham. People weren't voting for anything, they were voting for Andy Burnham. That doesn't mean they were rejecting Reform. The idea that Reform won, I think all nine seats that were up for grabs in the local council only in May, just a few short weeks ago. But suddenly, no, they've decided they've got no time for reform and Nigel Farage and it's all over. They've peaked. It's over. It's now back to the two party system. I think frankly there's a load of
- [11:59]
Host 1
nonsense, Julia, but it must be a concern, surely, because this is the second by election that Reform have come up short.
- [12:08]
Julia Hartley Brewer
Well, you've got to remember, I mean, again, ostensibly this is a Labour safe seat, if such exist anymore, would realistically another Labour candidate that wasn't Andy Burnham and wasn't someone who could be the Prime Minister in, who knows, you know, a few days, a week's time, a few months time, would that, would that Labour candidate, whoever they were, would they have been able to beat Reform in that seat? I think that's a very big question and this is why. This wasn't a victory for Labour, this wasn't a defeat for Reform, this was a victory for the candidate who can get rid of Keir Starmer, who in this case happens to be Andy Burnham. This is the same as, look, remember in 24, all the gushing, I mean, the oozing of joy from a lot of the mainstream broadcasters when they were reporting the election result, this amazing 403, I think it was on the day Labour MPs. There's massive majority for kids tomorrow on, you know, less than 34% of the vote. It wasn't a vote for Keir Starmer and Labour. It was a vote against the Tory governments and their failures. So again, I just think, I think people can massively over interpret what this means. On this given day, people voted to get K. Starmer out. I'd have probably voted for Andy Burnham in Makerfield if I'd had a vote.
- [13:25]
Host 1
Well, there you go.
- [13:28]
Host 2
So go ahead, Francis.
- [13:28]
Dan Hodges
Well, you know, there's obviously a lot of things to pick up there. I mean, I think, as I say, Julia is right that it wasn't necessarily an endorsement of Keir Starmer's. Keir Starmer's Labour Party. There was a very strong sense amongst the people I was speaking to that Andy Burnham represented a sort of return to a Labour Party that they personally can feel much more comfortable with. And you can argue whether or not, you know, Labour one or Andy Burnham won. I mean, I don't think you can. It's quite clearly a very significant Personal triumph for him. But the one thing that you, you, we can also be clear on is in a seat that, you know, Julia's talking about, you know, popular Westminster opinion, conventional Westminster opinion over the last month has been this, this was a by election that was on a knife edge. That, that if, if Andy Burnham was going to win, he was probably going to be because he was gifted the seat by Rupert Lowe and Restore. And the reality is Reform got a pretty big shellacking here. You know, they didn't even come, they didn't even come close. I mean, I saw, I mean, I tweeted it before. I saw Matthew Goodwin earlier saying, you know, this shows, you know, again, shows reform can, you know, run the establishment parties right to the line. I mean, as I said, I mean, you know, reform weren't even in the picture when Andy Burnham got across the line. And I think the issue is, you know, again, I talked about this before. You know, I do think reform, you know, we are starting to see a pattern developing. I mean, remember, let's just sort of invert the issue for a second. Keir Starmer is, I think, by common consent, one of the most unpopular prime ministers in British political history. I mean, his approval ratings are on such a negative level that they're off the charts. We're midterm governing. Parties never win by elections midterm. We, we came out of, of a backdrop of local elections in which, you know, labor were, were routed. And yet, as I said again, in a major parliamentary by election, reform didn't even come close. Now, I think, you know, in a moment we can get on to the, the broader structural issues that this by election threw up. Reforms, broader strategy, how Reform tried to deal with Restore reforms, candidate selection again. But the reality is, you know, and I've seen this, you know, again, with respect to Julia, I've seen lots of people from Reform trying to dismiss this. Reform can dismiss it if they want, and Reform can just say, oh, well, you know, it doesn't matter, it was Andy, but it was the Andy Burnham effect, yada, yada, yada. But as I said, there is a fundamental thing that we're starting to see happening now. I mean, you said about how the left were united against, against reform in this, in this by election. But there was also, there were also significant elements on the right that were also arranged against reform. Obviously, there's the restore issue. What struck me though, was the number of concern. Now, obviously there's not a huge Conservative vote here, but what was very clear was that there were large numbers of Conservative voters who were basically, you know, again, they said it to me on the doorstep. Look, never voted labor in my life. Don't mind Andy Burnham, dislike Keir Starmer. But I'm not going to have Reform representing me in this seat. And that's Conservative voters. That's not.
- [17:17]
Host 2
Why is it, why is it. What is it about reform that Conservatives are not going to go for in Europe?
- [17:22]
Dan Hodges
Well, I think this is, I mean, this is a much broader conversation that I hope, I hope we can get on to, but I think.
- [17:28]
Host 2
Well, let's get on to now.
- [17:29]
Julia Hartley Brewer
Well, okay, before you go along there, because I do want to come back on something there about, you know, this is like a, you know, governments don't win by elections. I mean, midterm, this much unpopularity, particularly for the leader. But I don't think this was effectively a government party candidate winning. The people who voted for Andy Burnham, the popularity has, is because he's not the government. He's the anti government Labour figure. He is. He's the mayor of Manchester. He's almost completely disassociated from this government. He can criticize their policies. He's completely safe. He's not responsible for any of the decision makings, any of the U turns, any of the abject lack of any activity to do anything. He's not being treated as a. A representative in any way of this government. He's being treated as the alternative to this government. Which is why I don't think that thesis quite holds tight.
- [18:23]
Host 2
Julia, I think you make a good point, but I think there's one thing. I'll object before you jump in, Dan, which is, I think it's fair to say, I don't know, some people are saying reform have peaked. I don't think you can tell until the whole electoral cycle has run its course, of course. But you do see them staying flat in the polls and occasionally dipping. You see them. You know, there may be people within Reform who try and put a brave face on it, but I saw a clip of Nigel Farage saying he was disappointed and then also making an appeal to restore voters saying, guys, come on, if you want a party that's on the right to win elections, vote for us. So clearly I think it's fair to say that the shine is perhaps slightly coming off. And what I'm keen to understand from both of you and Dan, jump in first is why is that?
- [19:10]
Dan Hodges
Well, I mean, let's go back. I mean, firstly, just to pick up your point, there is no ambiguity here. Polls go up, polls go down. If you look at the polling averages, in September of last year, Reform broke 30% in the polls. And we all remember that because that was the moment when people were talking about, you know, a reform majority government was possible. From that moment on, Reform have been in, been into a relatively steady decline to the point they're now back down to about 25% in the polls. And I remember last September having a discussion with a number of senior Reform sort of figures and they explained to me that they had a strategy for, if you like, taking reform onto the next level. And it was essentially threefold. Firstly, it was to modernize, professionalize the party, get rid of some of the cranks, the loonies, the overt racists who had sort of gravitated towards the reform brand. The second thing was a very, very specific policy, which is Reform's internal polling showed that whilst Nigel Farage is very popular amongst men, he is much less popular amongst women. And to put it simplistically, Reform have a, have a woman problem. And the third thing was that they were going to start to need to set out a serious policy program and prospectus for government. And that was kind of what the backdrop was in the run up to their party conference. I think it was in October that year. I might be slightly wrong about the day. And I remember turning up to that conference and generally being interested, seeing how this program was going to, you know, this new sort of new reform was going to play out. And frankly, it was a bit, when I got there, it was frankly a bit of a circus. So you had. And I, I don't want to rehash sort of the old arguments, but I'm just literally saying what I observed. So you had the situation where Lucy Connolly, who had just been, you know, got out of jail for say, you know, tweeting about burning down hostels and ET etc, was literally on stage and fated like she was Mother Teresa. You had a guy up there who'd been bust over from the States who was talking, some anti vaxxer who was talking about that, you know, the. How the king had canc cancer from some sort of vax, sort of some vaccination program. You had, I think it was Sarah Poochin who, who had to be, I think almost virtually physically stopped from walking onto stage dressed in a Union Jack Burker and Andrea Jenkins came on the stage singing, singing a song or whatever. And the point was this whole sort of modernization, we're taking ourselves to the next level. We're going to be a serious party. It kind of didn't happen. And when I dug down and asked people why wasn't it happening? What became clear for me was for reasons I still don't quite understand, Nigel Farage and the people around Nigel Farage were becoming spooked by what they saw as some sort of nascent sort of threat from Rupert Lowe and whatever you call the New Right or the. Or the faction that Lowe represents, and that instead of sort of embracing moving forward and trying to embrace the country as a whole, they're instead adopting a policy of trying to neutralize that faction. And that, to an extent, is kind of what we saw replicated as well in Makerfield. So we had this initial poll that came out right at the start of the campaign, which had obviously restore on 7%. In that poll, it seemed to be like it could be the difference between Reform winning and Reform losing. But for the next three weeks of the campaign, Reform stopped trying to talk to the people of Makerfield as a whole and instead spent all their time just Talking to that 7% of Restore voters, trying to plead with them, bully them, beg them into, into, into voting for RESTORE voting. Switching from RESTORE to Reform, we saw increasingly sort of aggressive messages in relation to, obviously, the backdrop of, you know, some of the issues. So the appalling death of Henry Novak, the appalling scenes in Belfast, the riots in Belfast, Belfast. What was broadly an attempt to outflank RESTORE on the right and convince RESTORE voters, you know, Nigel Farage and Reform were as hardcore on these issues as RESTORE were. And the broader attempt to engage with the electorate, the wider electorate, an electorate, by the way, that, as we now know, was broadly lining up behind Andy Burnham went out of the window. And I think that is kind of part of the problem that we're seeing replicated nationally for Reform and Farage at the moment.
- [24:26]
Host 1
And Julia, what have you got to say to that? Do you broadly agree or.
- [24:31]
Julia Hartley Brewer
Yeah, I agree with an awful lot of that. I mean, certainly what happened at the Reform conference was utterly bizarre. I mean, some things you could never sort of unsee or unhear, you know, but it troubles me to this day. Look, there's no question at all. You know, Reform have been very focused and very rattled by restore. There's such personal animosity between Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe. Although, again, you know, this isn't unusual territory for Nigel Farage. He is a man who has made a lot of enemies over the years. And there's no question at all, Reform is a one. You know, there may be many other figures like The Robert Jenricks and the Sia Yousef's and Richard Tyson others. But fundamentally it is a one man band in the sense that what Nigel Farage says goes. It's his party and what he says goes. And a lot of people won't put up with that. He would say his instincts are better than other people's on this front. That's why he's been, let's be honest, the most successful politician, influential politician I should say, of his generation in terms of Brexit and, and what he's done. However, yeah, there are definitely rattles but one of the reasons why RESTORE has been able to win so much popularity and was winning people over in Makerfield is because, because of Nigel Farage and Reform's attempts which we've been seeing to become more, more a government in waiting, not a protest party. Here are some policies lining up people which they, you know, I think in a rather silly way call, you know, Shadow Home Secretary, pre Shadow Chancellor. Their spokespeople haven't got spokespeople. Lots of other key roles like Edu, I have got education as well Braveman, but you know, defence and other issues, they haven't yet got those spokespeople properly in place but to try and have sort of a platform of policies, some specifics for people to actually talk about. And those have been coming out pretty, you know, pretty fast and furious in recent weeks. Far quicker than we've been seeing from the Conservatives. So part of that move from reform to sort of appeal to you know, Middle England to the people who would have voted Labour voted for Boris Johnson in 2019 to get Brexit done. Those people who angry with the Tories but just want any government that isn't a Labour government or God forbid, a Labour Green coalition and they're trying to sort of professionalize themselves now with varying levels of success as we've seen. But crucially part of doing that makes them look a little bit more sort of establishment than Rupert Lowe and what he's doing and some of the, let's face it, very, very unsavoury elements who support the RESTORE party, including the likes of, you know, the Tommy Robinsons and some, as has been publicized a lot in the last few days, some, you know, blatant neo Nazis, let's call them what they are. I mean, you know, the left has been throwing the term far right out at anybody who voted for Brexit or isn't, you know, a full on climate change hysteric. So that phrase, those two words have lost their meaning, but I mean genuinely far right. And as everyone knows, elections in Britain are like in Europe, aren't won at the fringes, they aren't won on left and right, not by socialists, not by the fascists, they're one in, in the middle. And, and that has its own problems because then you're too like the Tories. You're not, you're not radical enough, you're not, you know, progressive in the true sense, the word enough. And I can see that happening, but I don't think that reform have peaked as such. I think we are in, we are in the middle. Midterm doldrums of. For the love of God, what is going on? When is this going to end? When are we going to not have to see or hear this awful man Starmer ever again? Why don't you guys get on with it? I hear people all the time on, on the right wing with the Tories or reform saying why isn't there a general election? Why didn't, why isn't he forced out? Not understanding clearly, you know, how parliament works. But I think that just as with by elections and with local elections, we've seen that voters minds get focused at that time and yes, you'll get tactical voting from the left. Absolutely. And you'll also get tactical voting on the right. And the main issue that comes up, I think on the right now is will there be a coalition of some sort? Will there be some sort of either just a, you know, you stand in that seat, we won't really make much effort in that seat, but leave us this seat over here kind of just quiet, behind the scenes unofficial deal between the Tories and Reform. Are they in a position, both of them, to make that deal quietly, you know, even if it's not even stated, you know, in actual words or on paper and that there is likely to be many think a coalition from the Tories and Reform after any general election. I think that I've been in, I've been in this world for a very long time watching this very closely as Dan has as well. And I remember in 2010 when we had the announcements, when we had the coalition government between the libs and the Tories, it's the end of two party politics in 2015. David Cameron won a majority and then, you know, it was all over and it's all going to change. And then, and then we had Boris Johnson in 2019. Well, massive majority. He's going to be in two terms by the way. Another very charismatic, successful mayor, only lasted two years Imagine that. And then again, you know, it was the end of, it was the end of the, you know, all these different coalitions. It was back to two party politics. And it changes again. I think that voters and our country are in, and political parties are in so much flux right now. I think that there is no, I don't think you can predict what happens in a week's time, let alone the idea we can picture what's going to happen in two years time. I think that is, I think that's a fool's error. I really did.
- [30:29]
Host 2
Speaking of predicting things, Juliet Francis. Sorry, let me just jump in on this one point because something I wanted to say. You talk about predicting, I actually looked at the prediction markets. Kalshi is the partner that we use. And talking about what all of this means for the country. I mean, looking at the odds of Keir Starmer still being Prime Minister by August and September, I mean we're looking at the high 90s here. You can see that 89% he goes before August 1 and 86 before the 1st of September, Keir Starmet departure being announced. And the other one I looked at as well is if we can pull that up, is the probability of who is going to be the next Prime Minister. And Andy Burnham is on 92%. So it seems that prediction markets wise are effectively convinced that Keir Starmer will be forced to leave and he will be replaced by Andy Burnham. Now the question is, what do we know about Andy Burnham and what will his premiership do to the country?
- [31:35]
Julia Hartley Brewer
Well, that's the crucial thing, isn't it? I mean, again, harking back because there are so many echoes of the 24 general election because Starmer, him on the front cover the word change. And we never really found out really what that change was going to be too. I mean, I'm still two years in, I'm still not quite sure what their plan was. It would transpire after he sacked his chief of staff, Sue Gray, because her job was to come up with a plan for the first 100 days that there wasn't a plan. Now, one of the things that is to a certain extent holding the Burnham camp back right now there's a lot of talk. They don't want cabinet ministers to be resigning. They want the Prime Minister to sort of come to his own realization. This incredibly resilient man who's actually just pigheaded and stubborn and arrogant that actually, you know, you're going to have to go with some dignity for the love of God. Right? So the key thing Is, though, if he goes very quickly, Burnham then has to take over very quickly and Burnham doesn't have a plan. If you watched his speech that he gave after winning last night at 3:00 in the morning, the speech he gave this morning on the stump, thanking everybody, there was zero substance. I mean, nothing, Dinada, zilch, nothing there at all. I mean, you'd be chasing down policies in the wind for him. He doesn't have any policies. And this is the problem with him. He has. Although he. Again, he's got a T shirt, he's got good head of hair, he's got pretty eyelashes and he's. And he's a. He's a nice bloke. I mean, he's genuinely. He talks human, he's someone you're quite happy to go to the pub with. Whereas the thought of spending five minutes in Keir Starmer's company fills anyone normal with horror. Imagine getting stuck in a lift with him. And that is a. That is a big factor of his popularity. But he's very, very similar to Keir Starmer in that he doesn't, as far as we can tell, other than a wishy washy, you know, we're told soft left. He's. He's fairly hard left, actually, but a wishy washy social justice. Wouldn't it be nice if people weren't poor? Tax the rich a bit blah, blah. I mean, there's lower bus fares. Yes, we all want those. Other than that, genuinely, I don't think he. I don't think he believes in anything. I don't think he has a plan. I don't think he exactly, like Keir Starmer, knows why he wants to be Prime Minister, what he wants to be Prime Minister to do. He talks about change the same way Keir Starmer did two years ago, but at no point are we hearing what that change is going to be. Bearing in mind he's going to have not only, as he said, signing up to the same fiscal rules as Rachel Reeves, even though not entirely sure, give that Newsnight interview the other day, that he actually knows what they are, but. But also he's going to have exactly the same backbenchers that Keir Starmer has, the same backbenches. You haven't got a clue how the real world works, how to run a business, who think that you should put taxes up on businesses and this mythical group of very wealthy people who aren't paying any tax and won't leave the country if they can, if they put those taxes up, who think that we should spend more on welfare, not less and who frankly don't feel too sure about us either borrowing more, taxing more or less doing any, any version of any cuts in any departmental spending to fund what vital, vital money on defense. He's, he's going to, he's just going to be in a, he's going to have a bounce in the polls, I've no doubt at all about that and he's going to be able to communicate better but fundamentally a few months down the line he's going to be in exactly the same predicament as Keir Starmer is where he's going to be and we already seen him flip flop Andy as he was in the first two Labour leadership contests he ran in, in 2010 and 2015. He does U turn after u turn. I'll help the Waspy women. 10 billion pounds of taxpayers money should go to these women who had to retire a bit later. Oh no, I've changed my mind. We can't afford that. That took I think two days for him to u turn on. We are literally into Keir Starmer Mark 2 in a T shirt.
- [35:36]
Dan Hodges
I mean I think,
- [35:39]
Host 2
I thought what
- [35:39]
Dan Hodges
was interesting is I thought you can't. We kind of just saw there with Julia, Julia's criticism of Andy Burnham a sort of a replication of the problem reform have just had in Makerfield which is Andy Burnham's opponents at the moment don't really know what the best line of attack is on Andy Burnham. So we had there simultaneously. He's basically exactly the same as Keir Starmer. He doesn't know what he believes in but he's actually somehow a creature of the hard left and the last time I heard I, I saw and I'm by no means going to broaden this comparison but the last time I saw sort of people struggling to sort of get a handle on how to criticize a politician was when the Tories were trying to deal with, deal with Blair and couldn't work out whether or not to say he's this slick, slimy sort of deceitful operator who doesn't really believe in anything or he's actually, he's actually secretly as hard left and dangerous as the hard left and if you remember the whole demonize thing that was going on and there's a bit of that, there's a bit of a sort of a demon Andy sort of sort of confusion I think just
- [37:00]
Julia Hartley Brewer
come on.
- [37:01]
Dan Hodges
No, but, but, I mean no but, but do you know what I mean? I mean literally people are running up. People are telling me, but people, people are simultaneously saying to me, Andy Burnham doesn't believe anything. He's always flip flopping, he doesn't believe in anything. And then simultaneously saying he's actually almost as hard left as Jeremy Corbyn. Now, the two cannot be the two, the two can't be right. But, but just, just, just a step back onto a couple things in terms of the broader conversation we've been having and the conversation we'll be having moving forward. There is one thing that we know for certain about Andy Burnham, right, which is he is not Keir Starmer. And before we get into any discussion about, you know, have reform peaked, what's going to happen with Labour? Can chemibad not bring the Tories back to life? The one thing we're going to have to wait for for is Keir Starmer's removal. Now, you were talking about the, you know, the predictions, everything I'm hearing this evening, if Keir Starmer doesn't announce on Monday stepping down or Tuesday or Wednesday stepping down, I'd be amazed. But, so I think that's the sort of time frame we're looking at, we're looking at now. But the key thing is Keir Starmer is such a unique, distorting prison within British politics because he is so unpopular, he is so despised. We will all have had the experience. Julie will have had this. You, I'm sure, have had this. You go around the country, you go anywhere, north, south, east, west, red wall, you know, metropolitan, wherever Keir Starmer's name come, come comes up and it is met with ridicule, boring on hostility and hatred that I personally haven't seen before. I haven't seen it at this level and I frankly can't properly, quite, quite rationalize. So it's only when Keir Starmer goes that in a sense the picture will clear. Now, the other thing is, I completely understand the criticism there's been of Andy Burnham flip flopping. But the point is, Andy Burnham did exactly what Andy Burnham needed to do in that by election. So if you remember when the bar election started off and I remember having this debate at the time, the initial thing was the bar election has been going 24 hours. It's already been framed through the prism of Brexit and his support for Brexit, that's a disaster for him. Makerfield, Brexit seat, it's a disaster. And I remember saying at the time, no, it's not, because he is not going to get sucked up into a national sort of campaign in what is basically going to be a very, very localized campaign in terms of it's Andy, he's from here, his kids go to school here, etc, etc, etc. He was very skillful in my view, in ensuring that he didn't get sucked into a huge debate on Brexit or a debate about his economic policies or his debate about his foreign policy or a debate about welfare policy. He basically just wandered around saying, you know, and I'm, as Julia said, I'm Andy, I'm a nice guy, I'm from here. You like me, don't me? And people said, yes. Now that does not mean that that is the Andy Burnham we're going to get in government. Because the other thing is, and this is where I, I completely disagree with Judah about that. He's just like Keir Starmer for good or for real. I mean, I, I, I know because I used to work with him. Andy Burnham has been in politics his entire life. Andy Burnham was an advisor. He was a Labour mp, he was Chief Secretary of the treasury, he was a health secretary. He's been a successful Labour mayor of Manchester. He's just won, you know, the most important by election in British political history. Right. He is not Keir Starmer. He is not a political dilettant. He is not someone who doesn't understand politics and what is necessary to succeed in politics. And he does have something, to use that terrible phrase, something of a political hinterland. Now he's been on a political journey. Certainly when we were working together, I was saying this somebody the other day, he was even more New labor than I was. But the reality is Andy Burnham is astute enough to understand that what worked for Tony Blair in 1997 is not going to work for Andy Burnham and labour in 2027 or whenever. And he has enough political experience, I think, over the next few weeks and months to put forward something that will resemble, certainly when set against, you know, what Keir Starmer presented, something that is a coherent political program and political narrative. Now this is also where I agree with Julia. That however, does not mean that any of the myriad problems that we're all aware of and that you've articulated obviously on this program and will continue to articulate suddenly, magically go when Keir Starmer goes and Andy Burnham, if it is Andy Burnham comes in. But all I'm saying is I don't think it is right to say, look, he didn't say anything about what he was going to do in government in the makefield by election search because he hasn't got a clue what he's going to do. I think that's too simplistic a criticism.
- [42:27]
Julia Hartley Brewer
I'm not saying that. There's just no evidence that he has thought about a lot of these issues and there are, there are things that, you know, I mean, and obviously he touched on, very interesting in his speech this morning, that one bit hint, a hint of a policy that he touched on was that it was unfair on people of Makerfield to have migrants being sort of, you know, dumped. You know, these, these mass contracts where Serco turns up and pays double the same, double the rent anyone else can pay and therefore they get all the local properties and you get streets of HMOs. There was a hint. Well, that was wrong and it was unfair. He didn't actually offer a solution to that. I don't think that. I think he ran a blinder of a campaign, no doubt at all about that. But the trouble is, and he's got this long history as a successful mayor, as a cabinet minister, but he was a cabinet minister under Tony Blair when there was loads of money, when he had a very, very astute leader and he wasn't held to account personally as he had being. Being a mayor, being a backbench mp, being a cabinet minister are all completely different from being the prime minister to governors. To choose you have to make choices. There are a heck of a lot of very, very tough choices that are about to be made. And he said he's going to bring change, but he's also going to stick to the Starmer manifesto offering change, but we don't know what kind of change that was supposed to be either. And he's doing it, as I say, with the same backbenches and with the same fiscal constraints. And realistically, what can he get done when the things that most need to be done, the things that the majority of people who frankly paying any attention at all know need to be done, spending on defence, cutting welfare, dropping net zero, are things that I think we can be very, very sure he's not going to be able or willing to do. The fact that Ed Miliband has been touted as a likely candidate for, for being Andy Bonham's Chancellor, I think is a bit of a giveaway there. Andy Miliband is a climate hysteric zealot. He makes Greta look moderate and normal on this issue. He is one of the main reasons why we are, you know, we are heading, you know, into oblivion when it comes to our energy policy, industrial policy, our inability to pay for defense It's a massive national security issue now, the net zero issue. Anyone paying attention knows that that was always an insane policy. It's a particularly insane policy given the current global situation that we're in right now. Threats.
- [44:58]
Dan Hodges
But can I just pick up on that? I mean, again, I think that's an example of what I'm talking about. So we've already got, you know, Andy Burnham has been an mp, I think, for like, what, five hours now? Five or six hours now. Julia is already criticizing him for, for, for the fact that he's appointing Ed Milan as his Chancellor.
- [45:20]
Host 1
Julie's right.
- [45:21]
Dan Hodges
I've seen it. I've seen Ed Miliband touted as, as his Chancellor. I've also, and I've written it myself, I've also seen it touted that he may, and I think this, this chills, this terrifies me even more frankly that he, he may well retain Rachel Reeves as his Chancellor to, to, to, to. To reassure the market. I've seen people talk. I've seen reports that Yvette Cooper might be his Chancellor. I've seen, I saw a report that Lou Hay was going to be his chancellor. As I'm saying now, I am not saying for a moment that if Ed Miliband is brought in as Chancellor, all of Britain's problems will be solved. But what I am saying is, once again, the criticism of Andy Burnham is a criticism that is not at the moment rooted in anything that Andy Burnham has actually said or done or even close become. Even, even, even close.
- [46:14]
Host 2
Sorry, let me jump in here because there's one thing I want to address. We're getting very Westminster here, and I want to come back to the country a little bit. And I think one of the most important things is, Dan, you were very eloquent about what Andy Burnham is not. But I think the issue Julia raises, which is an issue I think, for all of us, and I look at this conversation and it's stands out to me is I don't know what Andy Burnham stands for, and I don't think anybody does. So I'm not saying, look, I'm in
- [46:45]
Dan Hodges
danger of slipping into sort of becoming Andy spokesman on this program, but let me try as somebody.
- [46:50]
Host 1
Well, that's, that's why we brought you on.
- [46:52]
Dan Hodges
Let me articulate it in a sort of a broader, in, in a broader context and one that I think we will all, we will all grasp, it seems to me. And, you know, I, you know, watch a lot of what you, you both talk about. I think we would all probably agree that One of the fundamental sort of fissures in British politics, in British society is the fact, and you know, we were talking about the. Julie was talking about the success of Nigel Farage and reform is that over the last 10, 20, 30 years we have had a politics that has been shaped by a small. I'm going to be slightly simplistic here, but let's roll with it. A small sort of Westminster clique, elite, whatever what have you, that is governed in a way that a significant section of the British electorate primarily, if you want to call white working class, lives outside of the big traditional metropolitan heartlands, particularly in the north of England. What has become badged primarily as Red Wall Britain was basically cast aside and was viewed by both of the main political parties as at best as expendable and at worst as an obstacle to the great liberal sort of progressive Britain that these, that the two parties wanted, wanted to build. Now, if you're looking for Andy Burnham's identity, whatever criticisms you have of him, Andy Burnham is someone, and we saw this in Makerfield, we've just seen this in Makerfield is someone whose, if you like, political identity over the past five, six, seven years has been shaped firstly by engaging with a constituency outside of that metropolitan elite and more broadly as someone who is rooted and, and you know, it will become, we'll all get bored with it in, in a year's or a couple of years time, you know, Northern Andy, all that sort of stuff. But he is somebody who does understand and engage with the broader problems of what I would broadly call Red Wall Britain. And I was at his sort of victory rally thing today and he came up with something which if he follows through on it, I actually think could potentially have some significance which he said is everything that we now need to do as a party has to pass the make a field test, which is, is what a Labour government is doing, is it going to directly, not indirectly through some sort of Blairite or sort of Thatcherite sort of trickle down thing, is it directly going to benefit people here in Makerfield? Now I'll be honest, I haven't heard, heard that from a Labor leader before. Boris obviously tried to articulate something along these lines and obviously was in the short term was actually very successful in trying to articulate a vision. So that is where I would give. If you want to look for Andy Burnham's political identity, that's where you start. However, again, this is where I agree with Julia and I'm sure yourselves it's one thing to sort of have these things like the Makefield test and Manchesterism, etc. Etc. But to overlay that template onto the political reality of a country that has no defense, has no borders, has a welfare crisis, has a pensions crisis, is obviously some on of a completely different order. But equally, those are the issues that will be confronting the country whoever replaced Keir Starmer, not just Andy Byrne.
- [50:44]
Host 1
But that's the problem, isn't it, Julia? We are going to need a leader to come in and for want of a better comparison, be a Margaret Thatcher. Be a Margaret Thatcher of the center, of the right or of the left. And you're looking at Burnham. And maybe this is just a surface level analysis, but I don't think he's got the spine in order to tackle that and go against his own party, which is what he's going to need to do. And risk a whole load of his MPs and supporters hemorrhaging to the Greens?
- [51:15]
Julia Hartley Brewer
Yeah, I mean, that's the thing. And look, I want to make it very clear, I like Andy Burnham. I mean, he's a really nice bloke. He's someone you can actually spend time with. And I think his heart is probably in the right place. All politicians are ambitious, aren't they? But as you say, I don't think, and I'm not 100% sure right now we have anyone in any party that has both the view, the beliefs and the drive and the ability to push those through, but also to create the coalition, the wider coalition to make that happen in our very sort of, you know, His Majesty's government, the opposition dynamic we've got in Parliament, because I think that is very, very difficult. We do need, I mean, almost, you know, a national unity government to deal with all the big stuff to say. Look, we all know, and frankly, a lot of the sensible people in all of the political parties, there are some that don't have many sensible people accept that these are all the things that need to be done, but they won't do them. Now, if he is, if he is as popular as Dan believes he is, if he really does have this charisma and this ability and that that can be enough and he's got this vision, he does have a plan. If that is all the case, then he will do some of the things that you were just mentioning and I've been mentioning earlier in the podcast, and he'll be able to do them by saying to his backbenchers, look, I know we care about people on wealth. We don't want to take anyone off wealth. I know that we want to spend more on the nhs. I know we want to do this and that, but. And I know we care about the environment, but we need to do X, Y and Z because this is what the country needs and it may not be what we feel like we like now, but we can do it now. A strong leader could do that, could drive that through, would be able to push that through, have the powers of persuasion. I don't think there's any evidence that he does have that. And one of the things that I think really did it for Keir Starmer was this. U turn after U turn after U turn. Not only did he not believe anything he said, even speeches, he gave the island of Strangers speeches. Apparently he didn't even believe, hadn't read it. You know, he didn't believe anything he said, he didn't have a plan. But also, crucially, whenever he came up against pretty much any opposition at all, he did nothing about it. He just went, oh, okay, he slunk back into his corner and he gave in. Now, the first moment when Andy Burnham tries to do anything that is vitally, economically or security wise, necessary, and he gets pushed back from a large number of more left, the backbenchers largely being more on the left, those backbenchers who thought he was their great white hope, the moment he buckles that first time that he buckles, he's finished. Because all of his backbenchers will know, great, we've got another pushover. We can prevent this stuff from happening. And there are an awful lot of people, Labour Party members, not so much the voters, they're much wiser Labour Party members and many on the backbenches of that party, and quite a few, frankly, in the government bench as well, who genuinely think that this stuff doesn't need to be done. And you know, they are going to be. They are going to be, realistically, they're the ones who are going to be Andy Burnham's enemy, not kemi Badenok at PMQ's, asking her six questions, not reform in local by elections in the Red Wall. The real enemy that Andy Burnham is going to have to face down is his own backbenchers.
- [54:38]
Dan Hodges
But just to pick up on what Judy said, and also the point you made, because you framed the question as Andy Burnham is going to be seen by Labour backbenchers as the man who can neutralize Polanski and the Greens. Obviously, there's an element of that. That's not why Andy Burnham is about to become elected leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister. We saw it Yesterday we saw it. This morning at the rally, we saw it in Makers Field. Andy Burnham is the reason why Keir Starmer is being thrown out of the balloon two years after winning a 400 majority is because. And replaced by Andy Burnham is because in the eyes of Labour MPs, Andy Burnham has one job, and it's not to save them from the Greens, although there's a component of that. His primary job is to save them from reform. And Nigel Farage, Andy Burnham, rightly or wrongly, this morning across the Labour movement, is seen as the Farage slayer. Now, whether he is or he isn't, we're going to find out, obviously, in the next few months and years. But that's what, to the extent he's going to have a mandate from anyone, and I personally have written about this today, I mean, I think there should be a contest within the Labour Party rather than the Coronation. But either way, the extent to which Andy Burnham is going to have a mandate from his party to do anything, it's going to do one thing, and that's to defeat Nigel Farage. Now, obviously, he's going to have a lot of. A lot of problems, to put it mildly, dealing with that. But the majority of Labour MPs understand you do not defeat Nigel Farage by articulating an incredibly liberal view on open borders or by reopening the Brexit argument. Now, it's not to say there aren't people within the Labour Party who do want to see those, those arguments articulated, but certainly for the first six to 12 months of a Burnham premiership, those people will find themselves put, pushed to the background. If Burnham can present himself as, as I said, someone who can be an antidote to reform and what I think part of what he will do, there will definitely be some, in some sort of areas, a shift to the left. But as we've seen within reform, there are elements of reforms policies, particularly on the economic side, which themselves are quite left wing. And Kemi Badenok has obviously done a good job in articulating, critiquing that. So this idea that Andy Burnham comes in and he's just going to be another Starmer, Liberal lefty, that's not going to be his job at the beginning. His job is going to be save us from Farage. And there is an appreciation, firstly, Andy Burnham appreciates this. This himself and the people around him do. And also a number of labor mps, they may not like it, but they understand that if they. If they do want Andy Burnham to see off Nigel Farage, there are certain things that Andy Burnamy is going to have to do and say that maybe they wouldn't normally feel that comfortable with. And certainly they weren't going to let Keir Starmer get away with when Keir Starmer had a popularity of -44. If Andy Burnham can retain any sort of national popularity and can demonstrate any sort of bounce in the polls at the moment and can in any way narrow the gap between labor and Reform, then he will get a bit of breathing space from his party. If he messes it up, they'll take his head off. But in the short term, they'll give him, in the short term, they'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
- [58:20]
Julia Hartley Brewer
He'll get the breathing space. But as soon as he has to make a decision, he's going to upset one side or the other and any decision.
- [58:27]
Dan Hodges
Yeah, but as I said, that's what happens. But that's what having the breathing space is. He will have that. He will be given the opportunity initially, if he wants to take it, to deal with some, to take some difficult decisions. And in the short term, Labour MPs will suck it up and see how it works out. Now, obviously, if subsequently, if we're sitting here in 12 months time and Andy Burnham is at minus 44 personal rating in the polls and Nigel Farage is on 40%, we're going to be having the conversation about who replaces Andy and Andy Burnham. But the idea that, you know, Labor MP is going to pounce on him immediately and say, right, you've got to do this, you've got to, you've got to do that. If, if he, he does secure the labor leadership, he will have a honeymoon period. It won't be a long one, but he will.
- [59:22]
Julia Hartley Brewer
That's one thing. The honeymoon period will be different from labor back ventures, from the voters. I mean, voters don't expect things to change immediately. A lot of people, you know, may not know much about him, you know, as we follow him closely, don't know much about what his policies are. But again, I simply don't accept that actually that honeymoon can last very long because there needs to be action and when there isn't action, he will be blamed for that. And when there is action, he cannot please everybody all the time. And it's very easy when you're the mayor of Manchester to sort of please all these people all the time. And, you know, it's, you're not being held to account for, you know, what money's being spent on defense, what money is being spent on health, what you know whether the trains run on time. You're literally not being held responsible for every single thing that happens in the country, which was what happens to a Prime Minister. And I don't think he's going. I just don't see anything from all the things I think are good about him. I don't see anything in there that suggests he is going to be able to withstand that. He will do it.
- [60:19]
Dan Hodges
Just trust me on one thing. And Andy Burnham has been around politics long enough to know the difference between Mayor and Manchester and being Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. No, Dan, he knows that difference.
- [60:29]
Host 2
That's a totally fair point. But I think we've got one minute left. I think the point that I agree with Julia on is this the reason you. You mentioned that it's inexplicable to you the hatred and animosity that exists in this country towards Keir Starmer, who, let's be honest, I don't think most of the public know what he's done. He hasn't done anything that they would regard as terrible, actually. There's not. If you said to the ordinary person,
- [60:51]
Dan Hodges
what is quite a few things they think are terrible.
- [60:54]
Host 2
I don't know about that.
- [60:56]
Julia Hartley Brewer
Allowance for elderly people. Come on. A lot of people still talk about that two years on.
- [61:02]
Host 2
My point is bigger than this, which is I think the country is in a very bad way, in the way that you've actually both articulated. And that is where people's frustrations come in. Keir Starmer has borne the brunt of that because he has been in power during the time that that situation has continued to get worse. All the previous Tory Prime Ministers before him were also deeply unpopular. Boris Johnson had a very brief period that ended during COVID and thereafter. And so my point is, Andy Burnham may be a very nice chap who may develop some policies, who may get a honeymoon from the Labour Party, but ultimately, Dan, final word to you for literally 30 seconds. Don't you think he will become Keir Starmer? Not because she's like Keir Starmer, but because any Labour Prime Minister currently is going to become deeply unpopular because of the situation the country is in. 30 seconds.
- [61:52]
Dan Hodges
No, I don't think he'll become Keir Starmer. If Andy Burnham fails, he'll become even less popular than Keir Starmer. That is not. That failure is not currently preordained.
- [62:05]
Host 2
There we go. Julia Hartley, Brewer, Dan Hodges, thank you so much for a great conversation. Really appreciate you joining us on this Friday evening. I'm sure our audience have loved this. Thank you so much for being here.
- [62:16]
Julia Hartley Brewer
Thank you.
- [62:24]
Host 2
Guys. Let us take a minute to recommend another podcast.
- [62:27]
Host 1
Did you know the average podcast listener has six shows in rotation, so you're most likely not just listening to trigonometry. Wait, so we know you're cheating on us? This is a disgrace.
- [62:39]
Host 2
Francis, it's okay. The Jordan Harbinger show is a perfect complement to trigonometry.
- [62:44]
Host 1
Really?
- [62:44]
Host 2
Absolutely. Just like trigonometry, Jordan hosts weekly mind broadening conversations with some of the most fascinating people in the world. But a key difference that I'm a big fan of is that Jordan is focused on pulling actionable, growth orientated advice from his guests.
- [62:58]
Host 1
I'm looking at his episode list now. There's an episode here where Jordan talks to a hostage negotiator from the FBI who lays out his techniques on how to get people to do what you you want them to do by making them like and trust you. Sounds just like me, except I'm more sas.
- [63:15]
Host 2
You can't go wrong with adding the Jordan Harbinger show to your podcast rotation. Search for the Jordan Harbinger Show. That's H A R B I n G E R on Apple podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.