TRIGGERnometry: Our Thoughts On The Iran War
March 31, 2026

Episode Overview

In this urgent and candid conversation, TRIGGERnometry hosts Konstantin Kisin (often credited as Francis Foster in the transcript, real name) and Francis Foster reflect on the unfolding Iran War, its far-reaching economic and political implications, and the complexity of sense-making in an era defined by information warfare and polarization. Drawing on their US trip, interviews with insiders, and their own evolving positions, they dissect the conflict’s roots, execution, and escalating effects, while challenging dominant narratives and warning of global repercussions—especially for the West. Throughout, they emphasize intellectual honesty, good-faith dialogue, and the dangers of shutting down debate.

Key Themes & Discussion Points

1. Introduction and Framing (00:02–01:34)

• Controversy and Importance:
  Francis Foster immediately frames the episode as “very controversial” and one of the most significant topics in the show's history:

  “The reality is this is one of the most important topics that we have covered in the history of trigonometry.” —Harry Foster, 00:09

• Not Experts, but Observers:
  Both hosts stress that they are sharing impressions and insights gathered from a range of insider conversations, not issuing expert analysis.

2. Shaping Their Perspective: Emotional Reaction vs. Fact-Based Analysis (01:34–05:06)

• Influence of Past Wars:
  Having come of age during the Iraq War, both confess initial skepticism towards “regime change” but aim to set emotions aside in favor of argument analysis.
• Insights from Eamon Dean:
  Via a special livestream with Eamon Dean (ex-Al Qaeda, MI6 operative), they highlight the split within Iran:
  • 25% loyal to the regime
  • 25% vehemently opposed
  • 50% just want normal life
    This points to civil war risk, not easy regime change.
• Authoritarian Regime Obstacles:
  The regime’s resilience is enforced by powerful institutions like the IRGC (200,000 strong, highly ideological).
• Comparison with Other US Interventions:
  Quick referencing of Venezuela, Libya, Syria highlights the variance in outcomes and complexities of imposing regime change.

Quote:

“What the US and its allies haven't dealt with is how do you get rid of that, how do you deal with that element of the regime?” —Harry Foster, 03:28

3. The Information Landscape and Their Approach (05:06–09:59)

• Sense-Making, Not Cheerleading:
  The hosts clarify that their project is “sense making,” not taking fixed sides:

  “We’re not pro Israel, we’re not anti Israel, we’re not pro Palestine, we’re not anti Palestine, we’re pro the truth. And that is our approach to this current conflict as well.” —Francis Foster, 08:47

• Emotional Honesty:
  They cite their previous coverage of Gaza as an example of resisting easy narratives and letting their views evolve based on arguments and facts.
• Danger of Hypocrisy:
  Refusal to judge other states more harshly than one’s own if attacked.

4. Lack of Clear Strategy from the US (09:59–13:21)

• Objectives Outlined:
  The US objectives: Prevent Iranian nuclear breakout, degrade regional influence (Hamas, Houthis, Hezbollah), degrade missile/drone capability, and regime change.

• No Coherent Strategy:
  Numerous sources (administration insiders, journalists) consistently report:

  “There is no plan and there was no strategy.” —Francis Foster, 11:18

• Achievements/Shortfalls:
  While the US military has inflicted substantial damage to Iran’s forces, Iran still controls the critical Strait of Hormuz, with no clear military path to reopen it.

5. Lessons from Venezuela vs. Iran (13:21–15:06)

• Venezuela Was “Regime Adjustment” Not Regime Change:
  The US had a prepared successor, a homogeneous population, and less ideological division. By contrast, Iran is fragmented and fiercely defended by the IRGC.

6. Conversations with Key Figures & Consensus on Concerns (15:06–21:04)

• Dialogue Across Spectrum:
  Guests included Ted Cruz, Mehdi Hassan, Robert Pape, Mike Baker (ex CIA).
• No Convincing “Off Ramp”:
  Cruz articulates the need for the Iranian people to decide their future, but there’s no evidence of a real insurrection. Past mass protests were brutally quashed.
• Escalation Trap (via Robert Pape):
  The US can’t destroy Iran’s nuclear material without ground troops, escalating further. Each step up is met by Iranian escalation, risking long-term regional energy, trade, and global economic stability:

  “Unless the United States is prepared to do to Iran what the Western allies did to Japan and Germany, there is actually no way of achieving the objectives.” —Francis Foster, 22:29

7. Current Escalation and Global Economic Impact (21:04–26:19)

• Diplomatic Deadlock:
  Iran refuses US overtures via Pakistan, holding the “trump card” of Hormuz:

  “What they've done is they effectively made it a toll booth where they let in the ships that they choose and don't let in the ships that they don't choose.” —Francis Foster, 25:04

• No Win for China and Russia Theory:
  Supposed benefits to the West (hurting China/Russia) don’t hold:

  • China still buys oil
  • Russia, benefiting from oil prices, circumvents sanctions
  • Europe, especially, suffers

8. Fractures in the West: US-Europe Strategic Tensions (26:19–29:48)

• Strained Alliances:
  The US-Europe relationship is more fraught than ever, aggravated by differing threat perceptions, economic vulnerabilities, and mutual resentment over defense burden-sharing.

  “You are looking at the way that European leaders are behaving, you're looking at the way Trump is behaving, and you are thinking to yourself…the fractures are looking ever wider, and you're really worrying, could these fractures become permanent?” —Harry Foster, 27:00

• Political Fallout:
  Rising populism on both the right and left, potential breakdown of central political consensus, and the “death of net zero” as an energy policy under economic strain.

9. The Economic Domino: Energy, Fertilizer, Recession (31:16–37:04)

• Historical Precedent:
  Niall Ferguson’s warning: Recessions are almost always triggered by the primary energy source spiking in price.
• Strait of Hormuz Chokepoint:
  20% of global oil, 25% LNG, and much of the world’s fertilizer and plastics move through Hormuz.
• Real-World Shortages:
  Friends in Australia relay imminent fertilizer and diesel shortages, amplifying fears of food crises.
• Long-term Disruption:
  Damage to key Gulf platforms (e.g., Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas field) could take up to five years to repair, especially if the war continues.

  “Without fertilizer, one in two people would effectively starve to death in this planet.” —Harry Foster, 36:49

10. Diverging Interests: US vs. Israel/Saudi/UAE (38:32–41:34)

• Regional Players’ Motives:
  Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Israel welcome the opportunity to weaken Iran, but that’s a long-term, generational strategic goal—not aligned with America’s immediate interests.
• Growing US Skepticism:
  Many Americans, not anti-Israel or antisemitic, now question if Israel’s interests match America’s, risking long-term diplomatic shifts.

Quote:

“If this conflict fails … this will cause is a permanent realignment of many, many, many people's view of Israel. And they will see that this conflict, which caused so many problems down the line, was done primarily for the benefit of Israel.” —Francis Foster, 40:20

11. Shifting Attitudes Towards Israel & Generational Divide (45:33–47:20)

• Younger Generations Growing More Critical:
  People under 35—left and right—are increasingly skeptical of Israel. Prolonged conflict and mounting civilian death will stoke both anti-Israel and antisemitic sentiment.
• Terrorism Risk:
  Heightened danger for Jewish communities in the West as tensions and hatred escalate.

Quote:

“The more this carries on, the more ill will is directed to Israel. Inevitably, the more ill will be directed to Jewish people.” —Harry Foster, 46:58

12. Antisemitism, “Name Calling,” and the Dangers of Shutting Down Debate (47:20–55:21)

• Distinguish Criticism from Hate:
  Criticizing Israeli policy is not remotely the same as antisemitism; overusing the label erodes its meaning and harms the fight against real bigotry.
• Importance of Honest Debate:
  Suppressing dissent produces resentment and stokes conspiracy theories. Good-faith, open argument is essential to democratic health.
• Backlash Risk:
  Hostility grows wherever opinions are silenced; anger and radicalization fill the vacuum.

Quote:

“When you misapply words, what you do is you erode the word itself and then you can't actually accurately describe the phenomenon…If everyone is anti Semitic, then no one is.” —Francis Foster, 49:43

13. Political Consequences for the UK & Populist Surge (59:49–67:07)

• Populist Left vs. Right Showdown:
  Economic hardship, exacerbated by the Iran conflict, boosts the UK’s Green Party (populist left) and the Reform Party (populist right), threatening the existing political center.

  “You're basically getting the populist right versus the populist left at the next election. And that will probably be replicated across the European continent. And then you are kind of in the 1920s, 1930s territory.” —Francis Foster, 62:36

• Brain Drain & Economic Decline:
  Higher taxes and left-populist policies risk an exodus of entrepreneurs and a return to the stagnation of the 1970s; the UK becomes unattractive to business and innovation.

14. Summing Up: Necessity of Good Faith & Real Fixes (68:36–74:13)

• Need for De-escalation:
  The hosts hope for renewed negotiations, warning that “the longer we carry on down this path, the worse it’s going to be for everyone,” especially Europeans.
• Rhetoric Won’t Cool While Conditions Worsen:
  As social, economic, and political stress rises, polarizing rhetoric is inevitable without solving foundational issues.
• Ongoing Commitment to Honest Discussion:
  The hosts promise continued “sense-making” coverage, embracing disagreement within their audience.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “We're not experts, but what I think we can do is share some of our impressions, including of a number of conversations we had with people who do have access to the administration's thinking on these issues.” —Francis Foster, 00:17
• “Sense making is when you're not just expressing an opinion, but you actually explain how you arrived at that opinion and, and you're willing to change your opinion when you're presented with better arguments or with more information.” —Francis Foster, 08:04
• “There is no plan and there was no strategy.” —Francis Foster, 11:18
• “If you look at the rest of Venezuela, everybody else is still in place. Everything. The colectivos… the military… they're still there.” —Harry Foster, 13:42
• “This escalation trap is there… unless the United States is prepared to do to Iran what the Western allies did to Japan and Germany, there is actually no way of achieving the objectives.” —Francis Foster, 22:29
• “What they've done is they effectively made [the Strait of Hormuz] a toll booth where they let in the ships that they choose and don't let in the ships that they don't choose.” —Francis Foster, 25:04
• “Strikes on Gulf oil and gas mean that the current spike in oil Prices, which, if it lasts for a few months, will cause a global recession, could actually last a year or more.” —Francis Foster, 22:53
• “Without fertilizer, one in two people would effectively starve to death in this planet.” —Harry Foster, 36:49
• “If this conflict is successful, President Trump will get all the credit. If this conflict fails…this will cause is a permanent realignment of many, many, many people's view of Israel.” —Francis Foster, 40:20
• “The more this carries on, the more ill will is directed to Israel. Inevitably, the more ill will be directed to Jewish people. And the more Jewish people in the west will be at risk from Islamic terrorism, that Islamist terrorism.” —Harry Foster, 46:58
• “Criticizing Israeli policy doesn’t make you antisemitic…overusing the term weakens the fight against real antisemitism.” —Francis Foster, 47:43
• “You're basically getting the populist right versus the populist left at the next election. And that will probably be replicated across the European continent.” —Francis Foster, 62:36
• “The only thing we can do is speak the truth as we see it at the time. And that's what we're going to carry on doing.” —Francis Foster, 73:18

Final Takeaways

• The Iran War is not only a profound regional conflict, but a global economic and political crisis in waiting, with the risk of energy shocks, food shortages, political realignments, and increased social unrest across the West.
• The US, despite military success, lacks a coherent strategy for a viable outcome—raising the specter of an unwinnable, escalating quagmire reminiscent of past failed interventions.
• The war is already realigning global alliances, further fracturing transatlantic relations and potentially souring US-Israel ties for years to come.
• Suppressing debate, overusing labels like “antisemitism,” and refusing honest dialogue—whether about Israel or the broader conflict—only fuels anger, conspiracy thinking, and division.
• Western societies should brace for both economic and political upheaval if energy and commodity shocks worsen, with fringe populist movements set to gain at the center’s expense.
• For the hosts, sense-making, good-faith engagement with divergent viewpoints, and clarity about how they reach opinions remains at the core of their method—even if it angers some of their audience.

For Listeners:

This episode is a dense, rigorously honest exploration of the sweeping stakes of the Iran conflict, brimming with insider insight, humility about expertise, and a consistent plea for nuance over tribalism. If you want genuine sense-making and aren’t afraid of discomfort, it’s essential listening.