Our Thoughts On The Iran War

Summary

TRIGGERnometry: Our Thoughts On The Iran War
March 31, 2026

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Episode Overview

In this urgent and candid conversation, TRIGGERnometry hosts Konstantin Kisin (often credited as Francis Foster in the transcript, real name) and Francis Foster reflect on the unfolding Iran War, its far-reaching economic and political implications, and the complexity of sense-making in an era defined by information warfare and polarization. Drawing on their US trip, interviews with insiders, and their own evolving positions, they dissect the conflict’s roots, execution, and escalating effects, while challenging dominant narratives and warning of global repercussions—especially for the West. Throughout, they emphasize intellectual honesty, good-faith dialogue, and the dangers of shutting down debate.

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Key Themes & Discussion Points

1. Introduction and Framing (00:02–01:34)

• Controversy and Importance:
  Francis Foster immediately frames the episode as “very controversial” and one of the most significant topics in the show's history:

  “The reality is this is one of the most important topics that we have covered in the history of trigonometry.” —Harry Foster, 00:09

• Not Experts, but Observers:
  Both hosts stress that they are sharing impressions and insights gathered from a range of insider conversations, not issuing expert analysis.

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2. Shaping Their Perspective: Emotional Reaction vs. Fact-Based Analysis (01:34–05:06)

• Influence of Past Wars:
  Having come of age during the Iraq War, both confess initial skepticism towards “regime change” but aim to set emotions aside in favor of argument analysis.
• Insights from Eamon Dean:
  Via a special livestream with Eamon Dean (ex-Al Qaeda, MI6 operative), they highlight the split within Iran:
  • 25% loyal to the regime
  • 25% vehemently opposed
  • 50% just want normal life
    This points to civil war risk, not easy regime change.
• Authoritarian Regime Obstacles:
  The regime’s resilience is enforced by powerful institutions like the IRGC (200,000 strong, highly ideological).
• Comparison with Other US Interventions:
  Quick referencing of Venezuela, Libya, Syria highlights the variance in outcomes and complexities of imposing regime change.

Quote:

“What the US and its allies haven't dealt with is how do you get rid of that, how do you deal with that element of the regime?” —Harry Foster, 03:28

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3. The Information Landscape and Their Approach (05:06–09:59)

• Sense-Making, Not Cheerleading:
  The hosts clarify that their project is “sense making,” not taking fixed sides:

  “We’re not pro Israel, we’re not anti Israel, we’re not pro Palestine, we’re not anti Palestine, we’re pro the truth. And that is our approach to this current conflict as well.” —Francis Foster, 08:47

• Emotional Honesty:
  They cite their previous coverage of Gaza as an example of resisting easy narratives and letting their views evolve based on arguments and facts.
• Danger of Hypocrisy:
  Refusal to judge other states more harshly than one’s own if attacked.

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4. Lack of Clear Strategy from the US (09:59–13:21)

• Objectives Outlined:
  The US objectives: Prevent Iranian nuclear breakout, degrade regional influence (Hamas, Houthis, Hezbollah), degrade missile/drone capability, and regime change.

• No Coherent Strategy:
  Numerous sources (administration insiders, journalists) consistently report:

  “There is no plan and there was no strategy.” —Francis Foster, 11:18

• Achievements/Shortfalls:
  While the US military has inflicted substantial damage to Iran’s forces, Iran still controls the critical Strait of Hormuz, with no clear military path to reopen it.

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5. Lessons from Venezuela vs. Iran (13:21–15:06)

• Venezuela Was “Regime Adjustment” Not Regime Change:
  The US had a prepared successor, a homogeneous population, and less ideological division. By contrast, Iran is fragmented and fiercely defended by the IRGC.

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6. Conversations with Key Figures & Consensus on Concerns (15:06–21:04)

• Dialogue Across Spectrum:
  Guests included Ted Cruz, Mehdi Hassan, Robert Pape, Mike Baker (ex CIA).
• No Convincing “Off Ramp”:
  Cruz articulates the need for the Iranian people to decide their future, but there’s no evidence of a real insurrection. Past mass protests were brutally quashed.
• Escalation Trap (via Robert Pape):
  The US can’t destroy Iran’s nuclear material without ground troops, escalating further. Each step up is met by Iranian escalation, risking long-term regional energy, trade, and global economic stability:

  “Unless the United States is prepared to do to Iran what the Western allies did to Japan and Germany, there is actually no way of achieving the objectives.” —Francis Foster, 22:29

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7. Current Escalation and Global Economic Impact (21:04–26:19)

• Diplomatic Deadlock:
  Iran refuses US overtures via Pakistan, holding the “trump card” of Hormuz:

  “What they've done is they effectively made it a toll booth where they let in the ships that they choose and don't let in the ships that they don't choose.” —Francis Foster, 25:04

• No Win for China and Russia Theory:
  Supposed benefits to the West (hurting China/Russia) don’t hold:

  • China still buys oil
  • Russia, benefiting from oil prices, circumvents sanctions
  • Europe, especially, suffers

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8. Fractures in the West: US-Europe Strategic Tensions (26:19–29:48)

• Strained Alliances:
  The US-Europe relationship is more fraught than ever, aggravated by differing threat perceptions, economic vulnerabilities, and mutual resentment over defense burden-sharing.

  “You are looking at the way that European leaders are behaving, you're looking at the way Trump is behaving, and you are thinking to yourself…the fractures are looking ever wider, and you're really worrying, could these fractures become permanent?” —Harry Foster, 27:00

• Political Fallout:
  Rising populism on both the right and left, potential breakdown of central political consensus, and the “death of net zero” as an energy policy under economic strain.

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9. The Economic Domino: Energy, Fertilizer, Recession (31:16–37:04)

• Historical Precedent:
  Niall Ferguson’s warning: Recessions are almost always triggered by the primary energy source spiking in price.
• Strait of Hormuz Chokepoint:
  20% of global oil, 25% LNG, and much of the world’s fertilizer and plastics move through Hormuz.
• Real-World Shortages:
  Friends in Australia relay imminent fertilizer and diesel shortages, amplifying fears of food crises.
• Long-term Disruption:
  Damage to key Gulf platforms (e.g., Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas field) could take up to five years to repair, especially if the war continues.

  “Without fertilizer, one in two people would effectively starve to death in this planet.” —Harry Foster, 36:49

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10. Diverging Interests: US vs. Israel/Saudi/UAE (38:32–41:34)

• Regional Players’ Motives:
  Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Israel welcome the opportunity to weaken Iran, but that’s a long-term, generational strategic goal—not aligned with America’s immediate interests.
• Growing US Skepticism:
  Many Americans, not anti-Israel or antisemitic, now question if Israel’s interests match America’s, risking long-term diplomatic shifts.

Quote:

“If this conflict fails … this will cause is a permanent realignment of many, many, many people's view of Israel. And they will see that this conflict, which caused so many problems down the line, was done primarily for the benefit of Israel.” —Francis Foster, 40:20

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11. Shifting Attitudes Towards Israel & Generational Divide (45:33–47:20)

• Younger Generations Growing More Critical:
  People under 35—left and right—are increasingly skeptical of Israel. Prolonged conflict and mounting civilian death will stoke both anti-Israel and antisemitic sentiment.
• Terrorism Risk:
  Heightened danger for Jewish communities in the West as tensions and hatred escalate.

Quote:

“The more this carries on, the more ill will is directed to Israel. Inevitably, the more ill will be directed to Jewish people.” —Harry Foster, 46:58

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12. Antisemitism, “Name Calling,” and the Dangers of Shutting Down Debate (47:20–55:21)

• Distinguish Criticism from Hate:
  Criticizing Israeli policy is not remotely the same as antisemitism; overusing the label erodes its meaning and harms the fight against real bigotry.
• Importance of Honest Debate:
  Suppressing dissent produces resentment and stokes conspiracy theories. Good-faith, open argument is essential to democratic health.
• Backlash Risk:
  Hostility grows wherever opinions are silenced; anger and radicalization fill the vacuum.

Quote:

“When you misapply words, what you do is you erode the word itself and then you can't actually accurately describe the phenomenon…If everyone is anti Semitic, then no one is.” —Francis Foster, 49:43

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13. Political Consequences for the UK & Populist Surge (59:49–67:07)

• Populist Left vs. Right Showdown:
  Economic hardship, exacerbated by the Iran conflict, boosts the UK’s Green Party (populist left) and the Reform Party (populist right), threatening the existing political center.

  “You're basically getting the populist right versus the populist left at the next election. And that will probably be replicated across the European continent. And then you are kind of in the 1920s, 1930s territory.” —Francis Foster, 62:36

• Brain Drain & Economic Decline:
  Higher taxes and left-populist policies risk an exodus of entrepreneurs and a return to the stagnation of the 1970s; the UK becomes unattractive to business and innovation.

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14. Summing Up: Necessity of Good Faith & Real Fixes (68:36–74:13)

• Need for De-escalation:
  The hosts hope for renewed negotiations, warning that “the longer we carry on down this path, the worse it’s going to be for everyone,” especially Europeans.
• Rhetoric Won’t Cool While Conditions Worsen:
  As social, economic, and political stress rises, polarizing rhetoric is inevitable without solving foundational issues.
• Ongoing Commitment to Honest Discussion:
  The hosts promise continued “sense-making” coverage, embracing disagreement within their audience.

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “We're not experts, but what I think we can do is share some of our impressions, including of a number of conversations we had with people who do have access to the administration's thinking on these issues.” —Francis Foster, 00:17
• “Sense making is when you're not just expressing an opinion, but you actually explain how you arrived at that opinion and, and you're willing to change your opinion when you're presented with better arguments or with more information.” —Francis Foster, 08:04
• “There is no plan and there was no strategy.” —Francis Foster, 11:18
• “If you look at the rest of Venezuela, everybody else is still in place. Everything. The colectivos… the military… they're still there.” —Harry Foster, 13:42
• “This escalation trap is there… unless the United States is prepared to do to Iran what the Western allies did to Japan and Germany, there is actually no way of achieving the objectives.” —Francis Foster, 22:29
• “What they've done is they effectively made [the Strait of Hormuz] a toll booth where they let in the ships that they choose and don't let in the ships that they don't choose.” —Francis Foster, 25:04
• “Strikes on Gulf oil and gas mean that the current spike in oil Prices, which, if it lasts for a few months, will cause a global recession, could actually last a year or more.” —Francis Foster, 22:53
• “Without fertilizer, one in two people would effectively starve to death in this planet.” —Harry Foster, 36:49
• “If this conflict is successful, President Trump will get all the credit. If this conflict fails…this will cause is a permanent realignment of many, many, many people's view of Israel.” —Francis Foster, 40:20
• “The more this carries on, the more ill will is directed to Israel. Inevitably, the more ill will be directed to Jewish people. And the more Jewish people in the west will be at risk from Islamic terrorism, that Islamist terrorism.” —Harry Foster, 46:58
• “Criticizing Israeli policy doesn’t make you antisemitic…overusing the term weakens the fight against real antisemitism.” —Francis Foster, 47:43
• “You're basically getting the populist right versus the populist left at the next election. And that will probably be replicated across the European continent.” —Francis Foster, 62:36
• “The only thing we can do is speak the truth as we see it at the time. And that's what we're going to carry on doing.” —Francis Foster, 73:18

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Final Takeaways

• The Iran War is not only a profound regional conflict, but a global economic and political crisis in waiting, with the risk of energy shocks, food shortages, political realignments, and increased social unrest across the West.
• The US, despite military success, lacks a coherent strategy for a viable outcome—raising the specter of an unwinnable, escalating quagmire reminiscent of past failed interventions.
• The war is already realigning global alliances, further fracturing transatlantic relations and potentially souring US-Israel ties for years to come.
• Suppressing debate, overusing labels like “antisemitism,” and refusing honest dialogue—whether about Israel or the broader conflict—only fuels anger, conspiracy thinking, and division.
• Western societies should brace for both economic and political upheaval if energy and commodity shocks worsen, with fringe populist movements set to gain at the center’s expense.
• For the hosts, sense-making, good-faith engagement with divergent viewpoints, and clarity about how they reach opinions remains at the core of their method—even if it angers some of their audience.

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For Listeners:

This episode is a dense, rigorously honest exploration of the sweeping stakes of the Iran conflict, brimming with insider insight, humility about expertise, and a consistent plea for nuance over tribalism. If you want genuine sense-making and aren’t afraid of discomfort, it’s essential listening.

Transcript

[Francis Foster]

I'll be honest, I think this is going to be a very controversial episode and a lot of people are not going to like what we have to say.

[Harry Foster]

The reality is this is one of the most important topics that we have covered in the history of trigonometry.

[Francis Foster]

We are not experts, but what I think we can do is share some of our impressions, including of a number of conversations we had with people who do have access to the administration's thinking on these issues. Not saying they're right, I'm just saying this is what we have heard and you take it or leave it as you want. Almost every recession in history is caused by the primary form of energy dominant at that time, spiking in price.

[Harry Foster]

If we look closer to home, this war in Iran could have very, very real political consequences.

[Francis Foster]

So, Francis, another US Trip. Summing up, we haven't released most of the episodes we've recorded, but we wanted to record this to catch everybody up to where we are and what we've learned and what we've seen here, which is quite a lot and a lot of it is to do with the war in Iran. And I'll be honest, I think this is going to be a very controversial episode and a lot of people are not going to like what we have to say, which is why I think it's really important that we explain how we've arrived at the views that we've come to. So first of all, I think it's worth setting out how we've covered this war from the beginning and how we've, we've began to shape our views on it.

[Harry Foster]

It's a great point. So first of all, I want to talk about how we came to this war even before it started. So we were broadly in support of the 12 Day War because we thought that was the most effective way of dealing with Iran's nuclear weapons. It's really important that Iran doesn't develop a nuclear weapon for the stability of the Middle east more broadly and for the globe as well. We are also products of the Iraq War. We came of age during the Iraq War. So whenever someone mentions the words regime change, immediately we get an almost, I would say, visceral reaction because we saw what happened when the invasion of Iraq happened. We saw what the long term consequences, spikes in terrorism, all of that.

[Francis Foster]

And by the way, what about Libya, what about Syria, et cetera?

[Harry Foster]

So when this war was initially being spoken about and then the bombing started, I initially had quite a negative reaction to it. But one of the things that we have both learned in trigonometry is it's important to realize that those are emotional reactions, to put them to one side and then to analyze the arguments as they are and decide independently and come to our own conclusions of what the best arguments are and therefore the best possible course of action to take. And one of the things that really shaped my framing was the fantastic livestream we did with Eamon Dean and Richard Mineter. And Eamon Dean is a former Al Qaeda MI6 double operative. And Eamonn explained to us the makeup of Iran. 25% in favor of the regime, 25% vehemently against it. So those are the two polars and 50% in the middle who essentially just want to live their lives immediately. That set alarm bells ringing in my head because I think, I thought to myself, well, that's surely the potential for a civil war there. If 98% were against a regime, that would make regime change not easier, but more easy. And then you have factored on top of it, as you well know, coming from the Soviet Union, as I would know from my mother's from Venezuela, everyone can now drink. What authoritarian regimes do is once they install themselves, they then put in secret police, they then put in their own army, so remain fiercely loyal to them. And what the Iranian regime has is the IRGC, who are 200,000 strong, military trained soldiers, many of whom are highly ideological, if not fanatical. And what the US and its allies haven't dealt with is how do you get rid of that, how do you deal with that element of the regime?

[Francis Foster]

Well, we'll get to that. It's interesting for me because I didn't have the negative reaction you did, because if you looked at things that had been happening prior to that, Venezuela, I mean, we don't know exactly. We've done an interview on this trip with somebody, Daniel DiMartino actually, who predicted it was about to happen, to talk about what is happening in Venezuela today. And so far, you know, it's been a success. But, you know, there's, there's some questions about the long term, obviously, and Cuba being another. But, you know, the idea that we, that America under President Trump is reshaping the world to the benefit of the United States and the west, to me, was a good thing. So my initial reaction was what we said when we first arrived here three weeks ago on Joe Rogan's show, which is, the coin is in the air, nobody knows how it's going to land, and let's wait and see. And the one thing that I think is worth Also saying is we are not experts. We're not claiming to be experts. We're not saying anyone should listen to our opinion about this, and they really shouldn't listen to our opinion in isolation. But what I think we can do is share some of our impressions, including of a number of conversations we had with people who do have access to information and who do have access to the administration's thinking on these issues that we had privately and publicly. So we interviewed Ted Cruz, for example, but we also spoke to a lot of people. Every time we come to the U.S. what we do is we meet lots and lots of people from different walks of life, different backgrounds, and we try and gather different sets of perspectives. And if you go back even further to before this conflict and before the 12 Day War, and really, if you look at our entire coverage of this issue of the Middle east, it wasn't an issue that we ever really talked about. The only time I think we talked about it was with Melanie Phillips, I would say 2018 or 2019. And as I said to her in a subsequent interview, I didn't buy a lot of the things she was saying at the time. And I don't think you did either. No, to be honest, then I think nom dwoman raised it as an issue. Like I think in the final question in the interview we did with him, which would have been 2023. 2023. And then October 7th happened. And when October 7th happened, we actually did the very thing that we're doing at the moment, which is we talk to people from different perspectives. When it came to the Gaza issue, we had Ben Shapiro and Natasha Hausdorf and other people who are very pro Israel. We also had Bassem Yousef and Norman Finkenstein and others, and Dave Smith since, obviously, as well, who have a different perspective. We talked to people from all different sides. And for about a year, we didn't express any opinion on it at all. Then eventually, and it was my video, but actually it was very much informed by conversations you and I have been having the entire time after listening to people from different sides, we did a video. I did a video called why I'm off the Fence about Israel's War in Gaza, specifically, in which basically I kind of broke down why the arguments of the people who are vehemently pro Palestine didn't make a lot of sense to me. And really, the main thing I was saying there is that I refuse to be a hypocrite. I know for a fact that if Britain or America or any other country, frankly, was attacked in the way that Israel was on October 7th. We would do to the people who did that exactly what Israel has done to Hamas and unfortunately a lot of the civilians that Hamas is using as human shield in Gaza. So I refuse to sit in the comfort of my home or air conditioned studio and have all of these opinions about how Israel is doing things that they shouldn't be doing, even though I know that that is exactly what we would do. Right. So my point being is what we try and do about all of these issues is actually something that someone came up to us in New York last time we were there and said, you know what I love about your show is you guys do sense making. And I was like, what does that even mean? And basically when we had the conversation with him, we came to the point where we understood sense making is when you're not just expressing an opinion, but you actually explain how you arrived at that opinion and, and you're willing to change your opinion when you're presented with better arguments or with more information. And that is exactly where we are today. And so a lot of people who hate us have tried to position us as pro Israel. We're not pro Israel, we're not anti Israel, we're not pro Palestine, we're not anti Palestine, we're pro the truth. And that is our approach to this current conflict as well.

[Harry Foster]

Absolutely. And what's really important when you're dealing with these kind of conflicts is you try and be objective about it. Because what we talk about on the show, they're important topics and they're important subjects. But the reality is this is one of the most important topics that we have covered in the history of trigonometry. Not just because it's a war and because people are dying, which is obviously awful, but also because the implications from this war economically could be disastrous and politically as well. Yes. And could have knock on effects not only for the politics in America or the politics of Iran, but politics. Right, the way through the globe. Because if the global economy crashes, then that is going to mean upheavals socially, economically and politically. Right the way through Europe. Right the way through Asia and in countries like Australia as well.

[Francis Foster]

And I think it's important to say that when you say the global economy crashes or I think a better way to frame would probably be there's a global recession, that's not just like something we heard someone say. We will talk in a bit about the rationale for seeing that coming down the pipe, but first let's start with, like I said, where we started three weeks ago, we were on Joe Rogan's show. We said, the coins in the air, nobody knows how it's going to land. And what I said is, I'd love to know what the strategy is. What is the thinking of how you achieve your, your end goals, your stated objectives, and let's just restate those for the purposes of the discussion. The United States has, has set out its objective as preventing Iran from nuclear breakout, which means enriching uranium to weapons grade and building a nuclear weapon to degrade their ability to terrorize the region with Hamas and the Houthis and Hezbollah to degrade their ballistic and drone missile program. And regime change. I mean, they did say this, right? They wanted to change the regime, which is why they killed a hell of a lot of people at the top of the regime. And so you have to assess success or failure against those criteria. Now I say I'd love to know what the strategy is. Unfortunately, one of the things that became apparent to us pretty quickly, and I mean from talking to people within the administration, journalists who are in the know, other people who, you know, I don't want to get into the details of who they are and what they do, but nonetheless, these are people who have insider information. Not saying they're right. I'm just saying this is what we have heard, and you take it or leave it as you want. There is no plan and there was no strategy. And what they all say pretty much in the same terms is they thought after Venezuela that they, they're basically like unstoppable. And they can just, oh, we did this, we did this, we did this, we did this. And there is no plan, there is no strategy for how you get there. And as we sit here today recording this, I think the facts on the ground bear that out. You see that the US Military has been extraordinarily successful in destroying Iranian military assets, sinking the navy, taking out the leaders and whatever. But Iran retains the main thing, which is control of the Strait of Hummus. And we'll talk about why that's so significant in a moment. And there is, from what we understand in the conversations that we have, particularly the discussion with Hand with Robert Page, which I hope more people go and watch, there is no military option that allowed you to reopen it, short of putting Marines on the airborne, which are already moving to the Gulf, on the ground on Khang island and the coastline of the Gulf. But that will lead to more escalation. And it's very, very clear that that is what's Already happening. Every time Israel strikes an Iranian asset that they're not supposed to, let's say, or that might lead to escalation, the Iranians immediately respond by bombing the equivalent thing in the Gulf Arab countries. So the first thing to say is for all our desire for there to be a plan, all the signs are there was no plan.

[Harry Foster]

And that's the concern, because people compare it to Venezuela and go look, well, this happened in Venezuela. Number one, Venezuela wasn't regime change. Delsey Rodriguez, who is now president or de facto president of Venezuela, was part of the regime. She was a very senior part of the regime. What they did, and their plan was very clear and very simple. They're going to effectively arrest Chavez on foreign soil and his wife and take them back to the United States. They had already had in mind a successor who was Delsey Rodriguez, who I think it's fair to say knew about it. I would be highly skeptical that she just woke up one day and went, what me precedente? What a surprise. No, that had been planned in advance, and it was almost seamless and smooth the way that she was just put into power. But if you look at the rest of Venezuela, everybody else is still in place. Everything. The colectivos, which is essentially the armed thugs who keep the Venezuelan people, they're still there. The military, they're still there. In fact, Trump said that the reason he didn't want Machado in power, Corinna Machado, who is widely recognized in Venezuela to be the rightful leader, is because the military didn't respect her, which were Trump's words. The military didn't want to. So he didn't want to destabilize the country. And also, what you have in Venezuela is it's a pretty homogenous Christian country, conservative Christian country, where the majority of the people there are sick of the regime. They didn't want it. They're not religiously ideological in the same way people in Iran are. And as a result of that, it's a much, much easier fix.

[Francis Foster]

Right. And so this is the thing is, if in Iran, if what we were talking about is what I like to call regime adjustment, which is what you had in Venezuela, that would be one thing. Or frankly, if you were talking about a military operation simply to degrade their ballistic missile and drone program, try and get some of the nuclear material destroyed as well, that makes perfect sense, whether you're going to achieve it successfully. You know, there's maybe some questions about that. But once you start taking out the regime and then now potentially putting Boots on the ground. That's different. And also, Venezuela didn't have control over 20% of the world's oil, 25% of the world's LNG and 50% of the world's trade. Fertilizer, to say nothing of plastics, helium, et cetera, which, these are very important things for the global economy. So the first sign for us is, was talking to people inside the administration and other people who understand these things. And these are not people who are Trump haters. These are not people who are Israel haters who expressed real concern that there was no plan and there is no strategy. Now, look, sometimes you don't have a plan, but you can still style it out. That can happen. Then we talked to people from across the and we will continue to talk to people from across the political spectrum and across the spectrum of opinions on this conflict. First we had Ted Cruz on, we had Mehdi Hassan on, and we had Robert Pape on, we had Mike Baker, who's an ex CIA guy. And we'll probably continue to have conversations from different perspectives about this. And you have to say, our interview with Ted Cruz is very special. It's a very special interview for us. It was a great honor to meet him, to interview him in his office in the Senate. I thought he was incredibly articulate about the evils of communism. I thought he was, he was very good at reminding us and our audience about the power of leadership with the example of Ronald Reagan. But when we talked about the off ramp for this conflict, I didn't hear anything that made any sense to me. You know, what he said is, well, the people of Iran have to decide their own future. I don't see how that happens here. There is no evidence that the people of Iran are going to rise up and overthrow the regime. At this point, I hope to God I'm wrong. But at this point, what we've seen is there were mass protests were encouraged by people in the West. The leaders of those protests were all slaughtered. And now you can take out one commander and another Navy admiral and this and this and that, but nothing is happening. And I don't think it will because I always say to people like, imagine, like we're not fans of the current British government, but if France did a targeted strike on 10 Downing Street. I don't think we'd all rise up and overthrow the Labour Party. We'd think about defending our country from the French. When your country's attacked, what you do is rally around the flag and also the people who were prepared to really overthrow the regime. Unfortunately, they've all been killed.

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[Francis Foster]

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[Harry Foster]

And that's the real concern because you go, if there is no plan, which there doesn't seem to be, then effectively what are we doing is we're moving towards chaos. Because you need a plan. If you think about Vietnam, we. What was the objective of Vietnam? To win hearts and minds. Well, of course we failed because there was no clear strategic plan in place. And then what you have is then you have the Americans who have got one objective and then you've got Israel who have got another objective and you've

[Francis Foster]

got the Gulf states who also, they're much more like Israel. We'll talk about this later as well. For sure.

[Harry Foster]

Yeah. So you're just going, if the objectives are not aligned, if we don't have a clear focus and a clear strategy, if we don't have the same objective, then how are we going to be successful? It's like think about this show. If you had one objective, I had another objective. Even with a company as small as trigonometry and a YouTube channel, your objectives are misaligned. Therefore you are not going to be working in tandem. Therefore you are not going to be working in alignment. And what will naturally happen is that there will be conflict not only with Iran, but also with each other. And you look at, for instance, what happened with Israel bombing the oil plantation. Not the oil plantation, the oil factory. What's the word?

[Francis Foster]

I think it was gas, actually.

[Harry Foster]

It was a gas apologies in Iran. And you look at that and you think to yourself, well, the Americans, Trump was obviously very angry and very upset about this, and quite rightly so, because it couldn't be interpreted as anything other than, than an escalatory move, an escalatory tactic.

[Francis Foster]

Now, look, there is some debate about this because there are people who say, well, actually, Trump is pretending to pursue negotiations while actually secretly allowing Israel to bomb because it puts Iran in a pickle. We'll talk about Israel in a second. But let's just come back to the conversations that we had. We had Ted Cruz, we had Mehdi Hassan. And look, I didn't find Mehdi's arguments particularly persuasive either. But it's important to have people from his perspective, perspective on the show. And I'm very glad he came on. But then we had Robert Papon, and that's where I think both of us felt that this was the first time we were presented with arguments where we couldn't really find a gap or a hole in them. There are some concerns about what he's saying, but it's probably worth restating for people who didn't watch that interview. I mean, he is a guy who's been studying air campaigns for over 30 years. He predicted the 12 day war. He predicted that it would lead to a regime change war later. And his arguments are basically this. First of all, the nuclear material was not destroyed in the 12th day. Well, we know that for a fact, because otherwise why would this war be happening? Right? So the nuclear materials are still there and they're now dispersed around Iran. They are not going to be secured through air strikes. And people are openly saying this, whether it's Bibi Netanyahu or Mark Levin on Twitter. I saw him today saying, you can't get nuclear material without going into the tunnels where it's stored and getting it out, which means boots on the ground, right? So you're not going to get the nuclear materials without far, far, far more escalation. And even that is a risk. And his argument is the US Is now in an escalation trap where every step they take to escalate will be met by Iran with more escalation that creates now permanent damage. So rather than temporarily closing the strata from us, what you end up with is destruction of Gulf Arab and Iranian oil facilities, which means that the current spike in oil Prices, which, if it lasts for a few months, will cause a global recession, could actually last a year or more if that happens. So this escalation trap is there. And so in other words, unless the United States is prepared to do to Iran what the Western allies did to Japan and Germany, there is actually no way of achieving the objectives of getting rid of the nuclear weapons and of reopening the Shia from us. And I haven't heard, and we've tried to find people who offer a counter perspective to that. I haven't heard a persuasive argument about why he's wrong.

[Harry Foster]

Well, this is the worry because then you also, what the Americans are trying to do now is have talks in Pakistan with the Iranian officials, but Iran doesn't seem to be wanting to play ball. And if you look at it from an Iranian perspective, why would they? Why would they? You have started a war. You have killed their leader, you have killed many of the highest ranking officials. The Iranians have come out and said, look, Trump has tricked us twice. Why would we believe him? Why would we actually go and try and negotiate with him? And if you look at it another way, look, they can continue going down this path. But the reality is Iran holds the major trump card, which is the Strait of Hormuz. Eventually we are going to have to sit down and have a negotiation with the Iranians. And what Robert Papel is saying is that it would have been far better to do this and accept the original deal that was on the table than to go bomb, start a war when the reality is that Iran are now, to put it bluntly, a little bit annoyed about what's happened and are very much going to be less likely to want to agree a deal.

[Francis Foster]

Well, and forget about annoyed. There's also the real politic of this, which is they hold the trump card, as you said, and they know that America is in the escalation trap. So it's perfectly within reason that they don't have to reopen the Strait of Hormuz because it's not closed. The Strait of Hormuz is not closed. This is what people need to understand. What they've done is they effectively made it a toll booth where they let in the ships that they choose and don't let in the ships that they don't choose. And this is where the problem is. Because a lot of people say, well, you know, there's a secret plan, there's a strategy. You know what this is really about? This is about screwing China and Russia because Iran can no longer send drones to Russia. And China gets so much oil from Iran.

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[Francis Foster]

There are two problems with this. In terms of China, China is still getting the oil. And in terms of Russia, okay, Russia is not getting Iranian drones, but they're making them themselves and have been for a long time using Iranian designs. And also because of the pressure on the oil price, Russia, the United States has lifted sanctions on Russia, and Russia is now selling its oil in a way that it couldn't before. So this is actually helping Russia, and it's not hurting China, who it's really, really, really hurting is Europe less so America, but Europe in particular.

[Harry Foster]

And that's another concern, because when you look at, for instance, the war in Ukraine, more money is now flowing into Russia, which means Russia will be able to buy better armaments. It will be able to ramp up its efforts on the war in Ukraine. It will also mean as well that Europe is now torn. Because, I mean, look, the alliances between the US And Europe, they've always, they've been turbulent at times, karma at others. But for looking back over my lifetime, I think these. This alliance between the US And Europe has been its most fraught in my lifetime, certainly. So you are looking at the way that European leaders are behaving, you're looking at the way Trump is behaving, and you are thinking to yourself, I mean, the fractures are looking ever wider, and you're really worrying, could these fractures become permanent? And that would mean a massive, massive problem, particularly when it comes to a China which is becoming ever stronger, ever richer, and we are becoming weaker because our alliances are becoming more and more frayed, which is a very real concern, because take Britain, for example. I mean, if we got invaded by Liechtenstein now with our armed forces, I'm not sure how good a fight we'd be able to give. We are severely weakened. And you're looking at Europe, practically everyone, particularly, you know, Spain, Italy, England, France, or the UK we're in real debt. We can't even muster the resources to defend ourselves, let alone go and defend other countries. And we saw that with attacking bases in Cyprus, where it was like, well, we can't defend you. And the Cypriots were like, well, then what's the point in you having bases here if you literally can't defend us?

[Francis Foster]

Right? And look, whether you are someone who is super pro Trump or you're super anti Trump, actually, it works both ways because you could say, well, you know, Trump, Trump is a. Is. Is a stupid asshole. He's doing all this stuff. And this is really, you know, it's all his fault. Okay, but the problem is, if you are someone who thinks European countries shouldn't be involved in this conflict, which personally, I think makes a lot of sense, if I'm being honest. The problem is Europeans are going, well, this is not our war. And Americans are going, okay, well, Ukraine is not our war. And we've, we've been the country that's contributed the most to that, to Ukraine's defense. So if European countries expect America to defend Europe's border, you can see why that would come with some cross obligations the other way. Right? So this fracturing is bad for everyone, in my opinion. And it doesn't. And that's true, irrespective of where you place the blame. Personally, I thought, for example, what both Trump and Marco Rubio said earlier in the year at Davos and at Munich was actually, broadly speaking, true, which is European countries have been taking the piss, as we say in the uk. They've been taking advantage of America. They've not funded their own defense properly. They've destroyed their own economies. Purely luxury beliefs like net zero, which means they actually can't defend themselves anymore. And I think that's all very true. But I also think this conflict, plus the hostile rhetoric from the US has pushed Europe away and it's just a fraught situation for the entire Western world as a result.

[Harry Foster]

It is a fraught situation for the Western world. There is one positive that I would like to actually, I know it's not on brand, but there is one positive.

[Francis Foster]

Go for a mate.

[Harry Foster]

Which is, I do think, and I hope this could be the death of net zero, because you can have luxury beliefs. For instance, we're recording this in West Hollywood. It's a beautiful place. You walk around, why can't trans women be women? It's wonderful. Who cares? I've got a. I've got a $12 coffee in my hand. The sun's shining. The sun is going to shine tomorrow. But if you literally can't afford to heat your house, and that might very well be the income for a large portion of people in the uk if energy becomes so expensive, the businesses will eventually go out of business or struggle to function and struggle to do the basics, eventually the bubble might pop on net zero. And we think to ourselves, well, look what's happening around the world. Look what's happening with the Strait of Hormuz. The reality is we have the potential to frack gas in our country. We can move to become more energy independent. And as a result of that, we are going to be More insulated from shockwaves like the war in Iran. So. So there is the potential, if we're looking at this through a positive light, which I'm always trying to do, of actually this might be an instance where the UK will wake up. It may not be the case, but there is hopefully that potential.

[Francis Foster]

I hope that happens. I also see a lot of the pro net zero lunatics now saying the war in Iran shows that we must make ourselves independent of fossil fuels. I mean, you physically can't do it, but lunatics don't care about things like that. Look, let's talk about the economic side of it because it's something that I think the overwhelming majority of people haven't appreciated. The reality is, I mean, Neil Ferguson, frequent guest of the show, who I think, I think I'm being fair to Neil in saying he was broadly favorable about this conflict at the beginning. He has now written an article in the Free Press in which he basically breaks down why a global recession is pretty much inevitable at this point. And his argument is almost every recession in history is caused by the primary form of energy dominant at that time, spiking in price. So when coal was the dominant form of energy that we used, a coal price spike, mainly due to coal, coal miner strikes led to recessions. Most of the recessions were caused by that. Likewise in our times when oil has been the primary energy that we use, oil spike, oil price spikes have caused recessions. And his argument is we are now already at the point where that's going to happen. Now let's talk about why Iran doesn't produce 20% of the world's oil. But if you again, people should go back and watch the Robert Paper interview. The Strait of Hormuz is the place through which 20% of the world's oil is transported to the rest of the world from various Gulf countries. That's also true of, I think, 25% of the world's liquefied natural gas. Half of the world's traded fertilizer. I was talking to a friend of mine who's a farmer in Australia. He was saying they can't get enough fertilizer just to cover the planting they need to do now. And we're not talking about the price has gone up. We're not talking about this temporary delivery issues. They literally, the country of Australia cannot get enough fertilizer to plant the crops that they want to plant. They're also having diesel shortages. He was saying. And this guy, very reasonable guy, is not some kind of prepper. He was saying I'm getting more guns because at some point I worry I'm going to have to protect my diesel stocks because people will try and steal some of them because that's the situation we're headed to. And you know, a good friend of the show, John Anderson, who's former deputy Prime Minister of Australia, I mean, he is livid about net zero, which has basically created these problems that they now have. Even though Australia has a, a, an immense amount of its own energy resources, they just refuse to use them as we do in the uk. I talked to a friend of mine who's a gas trader. You know, the people who are involved in all these different markets, they see this coming already. And it's important to understand, a, we're not anywhere near resolution, and B, even when there is a resolution, it will take a very long time, probably weeks, if not months, for the situation to go back to normal. Which means the current oil prices, which are, as we record this, just around $100 a barrel, which is a significant increase in what they were before the war. If this carries on for a few months, you're guaranteed a world recession. But there's no guarantee that it won't get worse either. So economically, we are in a very bad place. And the fertilizer point doesn't get talked about enough. I mean, fertilizer, you might eat organic, which means no fertilizer, but to feed 8 billion people, you need the fertilizer. And if you don't have the fertilizer, what happens to the people?

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[Francis Foster]

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[Francis Foster]

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[Harry Foster]

Well, I was reading an article in the Times of London that said without fertilizer, one in two people would effectively starve to death in this planet.

[Francis Foster]

I mean, without the fertilizer from the Gulf.

[Harry Foster]

Oh, no, just fertilizer. We're just talking about how important fertilizer is.

[Francis Foster]

So just to say, right, we produce half the food.

[Harry Foster]

Yeah. And how important that is. And it's, it's essential. Without it, we wouldn't be able to sustain the population that we currently have. I was also in the same article reading about very senior person when it came to Helium and dealing Helium, a Helium trader, and he compared the current economic situation to being on the beach. He said, the sun is shining, not a cloud in the sky, but there's a tsunami coming, but you can't see it, but it's coming. You just don't feel it at the moment. But when it does arrive, boy will we feel it. And if you look at, for instance, Iran bombing the gas fields of Ras Lafan in Qatar, that is responsible for around 15% of the world's gas production, liquid gas production. And you think to yourself, what is effect is that going to have on gas prices? That is going to have a major significant effect. And then they were also interviewing in this article the people who are working there who were saying it's going to take about three to five years for it to be up and running. And he went, that is the best case scenario, three to five years, because we can't repair anything until the war stops. A ceasefire is agreed because there is literally no point in us repairing something if tomorrow it can get bombed again.

[Francis Foster]

And Robert Pape's argument is if the United States escalates what will happen is Iran will naturally then be forced to do more of that, which actually it doesn't want to do at this point. They will be forced to destroy more oil facilities in the Gulf Arab countries, more gas facilities in all countries. And this is where I think it's important that we address the conversation about the, that you raised earlier, which is the difference between the objectives of the United States and the objectives of the allies of the United States in the region. Not just Israel, but also the Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia, the uae, Israel, they're all behind continuing this bombing. And the reason is that their objectives, quite understandably, are different to the United States, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Israel would be very happy for Iran to be pummeled into the ground, even if it doesn't address the nuclear issue, because Iran is a regional threat to their interests. Iran is an enemy of both Saudi Arabia and the UAE and of Israel in the region. And so using the help of the United States to bomb the out of all of their military facilities, destroy their military industrial complex, whittle down their rocket program, their ballistic program, get rid of their drone manufacturing, weaken them economically. That's all wonderful from a Saudi, uae, less so Qatari, but definitely Israeli perspective. And this is where I've got some very bad news for our pro Israel friends, of whom we have many.

[Harry Foster]

Not anymore.

[Francis Foster]

We've talked to many, many people in the United States on camera and off. And I have to report honestly, there are many, many people now in America who are not anti Israel and they're definitely not anti Semitic, who feel that Israel's interests are not the same as those of the United States and who I don't even necessarily agree with their analysis because I don't think Israel tricked America or manipulated Trump. I mean, it's ridiculous, right? Tiny country manipulating. I don't think that's true. But what I think is becoming very clear to me is if this conflict is successful, President Trump will get all the credit. If this conflict fails, yes, there will be repercussions domestically. The Republicans will probably lose the Senate and the House and probably the presidency if this causes a global recession. But I think ultimately what this will cause is a permanent realignment of many, many, many people's view of Israel. And they will see that this conflict, which caused so many problems down the line, was done primarily for the benefit of Israel. And they won't think about Saudi and the uae and they won't think about the fact that the President of the United States is ultimately responsible. This will change people's opinions permanently. And we already see that from otherwise very reasonable and moderate people.

[Harry Foster]

And it is understandable why they would think that. Because if you think from Israel's point of view, let's look at October 7th, happens in 2023. It was a devastating, horrific terrorist attack. I don't think enough people in the west actually understand how awful it was. And also the deep levels of trauma that were inflicted upon Israel and the Israeli psyche. And they then went to war, which is a war that we both understood and about why it happened and why they carried it out in the way they did in Gaza and also with Hezbollah as well. And what I think the Israelis are thinking at this moment is this is a once in a generation opportunity to get rid of the government that funded not only Hezbollah, but Hamas and October 7th. And so for them, it makes sense to do their very best right now, while striking whilst the iron is hot, going after the Ayatollah and the regime and nullifying it. And also as well, it makes sense from a uae, from a Saudi perspective, because Iran is basically like a neighbor that is mental. And every day you wake up and you think to yourself, what's he gone and done now? Has he set fire to the fence? Has he attacked someone? Has he. Eventually you go, I can't live like this anymore.

[Francis Foster]

Let's call the police.

[Harry Foster]

Exactly. And let's get this dealt with. But the reality is that is not as much in America's interest, nor in the American people's interest. And there's going to be a lot of people who are saying to themselves, look, 12 day war, fine. Nuclear weapons, that has the potential to destabilize a region, that has the potential to give the Iranian government far more power than I'm comfortable with. Totally get it. But when we're talking about boots on the ground, maybe we don't know that automatically changes everything. And then there's going to be a lot of people thinking to themselves, is this going to be Iraq 2.0 or potentially even worse.

[Francis Foster]

Well, Iraq didn't have the leverage that Iran has.

[Harry Foster]

Yeah.

[Francis Foster]

Iraq didn't have the Strait of Hormuz. So that's a critical difference. And so if you put boots on the ground, it's hard to imagine it being less bad than Iraq at the very least. But even short of putting boots on the ground, I mean, Trump is clearly trying to end this and get an off ramp, which is what Robert Pape said he should do, which is what Mike Baker said he would do on our show, which is what Ted Cruz said I mean, Ted Cruz said, and you know, I wonder how, how prudent it was of him to say this, given where this might be headed. He said, well, if this conflict is still going on by, by November, when the midterms happen, we failed. I think we'll say it's exact. Something's gone terribly wrong. I hope it doesn't go to that. But either way, whether if it's a global recession or whether if it escalates further, that is not going to be a good outcome. And Israel will get a lot of the blame. And I can see from Bibi's perspective, he's been dreaming about destroying the regime for 40 years. I don't blame him. If I was the prime minister of Israel, I would want to deal with the people who did October 7th with extreme prejudice, let's say, to quote Apocalypse Now. But in the long term, this has the potential, I suspect, over time, over generations, to reset the relationship between the United States and Israel in a way that will not be beneficial to Israel at all. And that I think should be a real worry. If you are actually pro Israel, if you are interested in the long term survival of the state of Israel, that is a concern you actually ought to be thinking about.

[Harry Foster]

And when you. Again, this isn't data, this is anecdotal evidence. But we talk to one of the great things about doing the show. One of the things I love the most about it is the connections that we make with people. Not just people on the right, but people on the left, people on the center, libertarians, young, old, male, female, black, white, whatever. And I, I really treasure the conversations that I have.

[Francis Foster]

I'm very offended you didn't mention trans.

[Harry Foster]

The three trans people who watch our show. But when I talk to people about it, there is a generational divide that is ever widening between the way that young people. So I'm Talking about people 35 and under view Israel and how people 35 and older view Israel. And it's not just left and right. People on the right who are 35 and under are highly skeptical of Israel, to put it mildly, and its policies. And my concern is the more this carries on, the more ill will is directed to Israel. Inevitably, the more ill will be directed to Jewish people. And the more Jewish people and the west will be at risk from Islamic terrorism, that Islamist terrorism. That is a very real concern for me because we've been in this country a matter of weeks and we've already seen, just before we arrived and there's Islamist terrorists in Austin, we saw what could have been a horrific terrorist attack happen in Michigan where a man drove a truck loaded with explosives and tried to ram a synagogue with it. And we also saw a thwarted nail bomb attack in New York. And the more this carries on, the more people die, the more that we see the Middle east become destabilized. We are going to see Islamist terrorist spikes and particular antisemitic attacks.

[Francis Foster]

And I'm glad you brought up the word antisemitism, because I think this is really worth saying as well. And I hope that people can hear it in the spirit in which it's intended. But it's important to distinguish between different things. Antisemitism is a real thing. And I think it's undoubtedly the case that we see more of it than we've seen at any point in my lifetime.

[Harry Foster]

Agree.

[Francis Foster]

And it's horrific. And at the same time, if you criticize the foreign policy of Britain, that doesn't make you anti British. If you criticize the foreign policy of the United States, that doesn't make you anti American. And if you criticize the foreign policy of Israel, doesn't make you necessarily anti Israel or anti Semitic. Now, there are many anti Semitic and anti Israel people who criticize Israel's foreign policy, but that does not mean that if you don't agree with everything Israel has done, you are anti Semitic. And my worry is I see a lot of people now who just, they don't bother having the argument anymore. They just say, this person is a bad person. I mean, right as we recorded this, Joe Rogan has just had Dave Smith on. And our disagreements with Dave on this issue are pretty much on the record. I've debated him on Ukraine. I've debated him on the 12 day war, on Piers Morgan's show. We've had him on this show to debate him. I don't agree with everything Dave says about the Middle east, but I do believe his arguments have to be taken on, on the merits of the argument. And all that happens now. Every time I open Twitter, I see people who I otherwise like and respect just calling those two people names. And I don't see what that achieves. And there are people, you know, I don't like to go after people by name individually, but when I see some of the American sort of pro Israel commentators, some of them, the way they behave and the way they just insult and attack anyone that doesn't agree with them and don't actually take on any of their arguments, I don't think that's helping. And calling everyone antisemitic that simply disagrees with you about foreign policy. I don't think that makes the problem of antisemitism better. I would argue from an outsider perspective, watching this, it makes it worse. And we just lived through 10 years where the label of racist and transphobic and homophobic and misogynist was thrown around with such a. I nearly said gay.

[Harry Foster]

Abandoned lgbtqia, abandoned Constantine. Thank you.

[Francis Foster]

Exactly. That. No one actually believes those words have any meaning anymore. And so when I say, for example, that someone like Daryl Cooper, this. I nearly said historian, this guy who has all these theories about how Hitler was provoked by Churchill and Churchill is the greatest villain of World War II, et cetera, when I say he's a Nazi apologist, because I know what the word Nazi apologist means, the term Nazi apologist means people can't hear that anymore because they just think I'm just insulting him. I'm just having a go at him and attacking him. And this is what will happen to the term anti Semitic if people keep using it in this way. And I'm really worried about it, because when you misapply words, what you do is you erode the word itself and then you can't actually accurately describe the phenomenon. And then you can't say Nick Fuentes is anti Semitic because people go, well, you just called Joe Rogan anti semitic, or you just called Dave Smith anti Semitic, or you just called someone who criticized Israel attacking a gas facility anti Semitic. Well, if everyone is anti Semitic, then no one is.

[Harry Foster]

And there's another component to this, which is when. Let's go back to woke times immediately when you said something that was against the prevailing narrative, criticizing blm, that automatically meant you were racist. So the vast majority of people, quite rightly, don't want to be called racist because they're not racist. And it's a very upsetting thing to have a label put on you that is not accurate and is also as damaging reputationally as being called a racist. So what do you do? You simply don't voice your opinions. But that doesn't mean your opinions go anywhere.

[Francis Foster]

And in fact, you're probably somewhat aggravated by not being able to express them.

[Harry Foster]

And what happens is you become resentful, and resentment rapidly turns into anger, which turns into bitterness, which turns into something far more cancerous and dangerous. The reality is, is that we all have opinions which are sometimes wrong, sometimes stupid, sometimes ill thought out. The only way we get better opinions is by being able to have honest conversations with people. And we do it all the time. It's one of the things I treasure about our friendship, where I go, well, what do you think about this? And you go, well, what about this and what about that? And I'm like, I never thought of that. And what about. But that's how you get better. That's how you get better opinions. That's how you become more informed. And the reality is that process never stops and nor should it, because that's how you become better as a human being. You get better opinions. And not only that, you get, you are able to think better and more effectively. Your process becomes streamlined and sharpened. But when you start shutting people down, as we saw with wokeness, then eventually what you will get is, is a backlash, which is what you are seeing right the way through social media and in the politics in our country, which we'll come to a little bit later on. And that's a very real concern for you.

[Francis Foster]

And by the way, we shouldn't separate what we've just said from the fact that there are clearly people who lie about Israel for a living and there are people who say things about Israel that aren't true for whatever their agenda is. Joe Kent, for example, this counterterrorism guy who resigned from Trump's administration, by all accounts, this is a guy who served 11 tours for. So I, you know, me, I am pro military people all the way. And even when I'm not in my own country, if I find out someone served in the armed forces of their country, I always say thank you for your service. It's just, it's just how I think about if you're willing to put your body on the line for your country, irrespective of my agreement or disagreement with your views. That to me is like my level of respect for you goes up tremendously. Of course, he's also saying things about Charlie Kirk and Israel or insinuating things about Charlie. They're just factually incorrect or just lies, right?

[Harry Foster]

Yeah.

[Francis Foster]

He's insinuating that somehow the investigation into Charlie Kirk's murder wasn't properly looked into because there's an Israeli connection. And he would know, even though he had nothing to do with the investigation or the FBI, which whose job it is anyway. He's just making things up, as far as I can tell. And there are other people in the media commentary space who are so frothing at the mouth anti Israel that they are now, I think some of them anti Semitic. That is also true. But you cannot take the label that is appropriate to apply to them and then apply it to whole swathes of other People who just have a question about something, or they maybe don't understand something, or maybe they've heard a narrative that seems reasonable to them. And when you actually talk to them and you say, well, have you considered this aspect of it? They might change their mind. You know, the one thing is not going to change their mind is being called names. People do not change their mind when you call them names. That's not to say you shouldn't accurately describe people who fit the description. But these labels are now being so badly misapplied, I really worry that it's actually creating more antisemitism.

[Harry Foster]

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[Francis Foster]

Yes.

[Harry Foster]

And as a way to punish Israel for what they're doing, even though Jewish people who, I don't know, who live in Michigan, who are simply going to a synagogue, many of whom I suspect have very little, if no connection at all with Israel itself. And what that creates is every Jewish person becomes a target. And we really, really need to be careful in order to dial down this rhetoric. And that comes from one side, but it also comes from the pro Israeli side. And if people come to you with a concern or a worry or a criticism of Israel, what you need of Israel's policy, you need to think to yourself, right, how can I engage with it in good faith? But number two, is it a valid criticism?

[Francis Foster]

And also, if it's not a valid criticism, how do you engage with it in a productive way? For example, people say Israel tricked Trump into this war. I'd like them to explain the mechanism by which they think that happened. And I haven't heard it persuaded. There's always a bit missing, Right? So when we interviewed Mehdi Hasan, for example, he said, well, you know, the Israel lobby is so powerful, you can see that Democrat politicians, they are pro Israel on the whole, and Democrat voters are anti Israel on the whole. How do you explain that? Actually, that gap between what the elites of a party think and what the voters think exists on many, many other issues, right, that have nothing to do with lobbying necessarily, because people who are in charge of a party and the voter base often have different perspectives on things for all sorts of reasons. Now, lobbying is definitely part of that, but that doesn't mean that that's the entire explanation of that. Or, for example, people say, well, Israel dragged America into this conflict. How? Explain it to me. What power does Bibi Netanyahu have over President Trump? Does he have a picture of him with prostitutes somewhere? What is it? And this is where you get this conspiratorial retard nonsense that you get from some people on the kind of online right. Where they don't actively say, but what they imply is that actually Trump is being blackmailed, or Joe Ken, I think, implies even that Trump is afraid of being assassinated by Mossad. Right? Because no one ever explains the mechanism by which this tiny, relatively poor country, Israel, manipulates the most powerful country in the world. And the question is, well, if it's the money that they spend, there are countries in the world that spend way, way, way more money lobbying the American government. They don't seem to have the same effect. I mean, Qatar spends a ton of money here. China spends a Ton of money here. The Ukrainians obviously are trying to get America to do what they want. The Russians are trying to get. Everyone in the world wants America to do their thing, and yet this one tiny country miraculously, somehow is able to do it. Just I. There's not a good explanation and that's where you can poke and prodded it. We're just calling people names. I just don't think this is helpful at all.

[Harry Foster]

And you touched on it. Shutting down a conversation, what it effectively does is it creates a vacuum. And we all know nature aboards a vacuum. And what fills the vacuum is people theorizing. And quite naturally what happens is that will lend itself towards conspiracy because conspiracies are glamorous, they're exciting, they're sexy. That's why conspiracy theory content is one of the most viewed types of content on YouTube because it triggers the amygdala. You're like, oh, this is exciting, this is dangerous. It doesn't mean that it's right or it's correct, but that's all you are doing when you shut down conversations. You are allowing conspiracy theories to flourish. And I don't need to be the most perceptive person in the world to go conspiracy theories. Jewish people tend to go together and we need to be very, very, very careful because if we don't handle this correctly, if we don't, if we start shutting people down, if we continue down this path of smearing people, the conspiracy theories will only rise and they will become more prevalent and they will become more anti Semitic in their nature. And that again will lead to dangerous outcomes in the real world. Look, we're British. If we look closer to home, this war in Iran could have very, very real political consequences. We see in the uk, the conversation now tends to be, look, life has become more unaffordable for the vast majority of people, which is true. We're in a cost of living crisis, a housing crisis. All these things are true. What the hard left does is go, we need a wealth tax. The reason we can't afford things is because the billionaires and the millionaires are not paying their fair share. Therefore we need higher taxes because that's the only way we can redistribute wealth in order to make society fairer for all. Now the reality is that simply won't work, quite simply, because if you decide to tax these people and tax these people incredibly hard, they will leave. And you can agree or disagree with that, but that is a reality. But what worries me is that more and more people will become persuaded to this line of thinking, the more unaffordable their lives become, partly due to the war in Iran and rising oil, energy and food prices crisis. And that is a very real concern. And then we have political parties like the Green Party who will make hay with this particular argument, and a lot of people will be persuaded about it. And we're going to see more and more people go over to the populist left, and that is a very real worry, because if they become more powerful, then what we're going to see, in my opinion, is an economic catastrophe.

[Francis Foster]

Well, right. I mean, if the recession happens, then I mean, the Greens people don't want to hear this, particularly people on the right. But the party with the biggest momentum in British politics as we sit here now is the Green Party. There's no denying it. Reform are leading the polls, but the Greens are second from very low numbers. If you look at the last election, which was only a year and a bit ago, so if there's the economic impact that we suspect there will be, you're basically getting the populist right versus the populist left at the next election. And that will probably be replicated across the European continent. And then you are kind of in the 1920s, 1930s territory. And I'm not saying it's the rise of fascism or the rise of Stalin, exactly, but you are in a point where the entirety of the center is broken down and everybody wants a fake, simple solution to very complex problems. And people in Britain will absolutely vote for the lunatic fringe far left as long as the lunatic fringe far left points the fingers at the people they don't like and blames them for the consequences of this conflict.

[Harry Foster]

And also, Zach Polanski is very critical of Trump, and he's very, very anti Israel. And so what that will see is a. Is an increased fracture in alliances between the UK And America. And again, we, as a country, economically, we're degrading at a rate which I find profoundly worrying as a British person.

[Francis Foster]

Well, we recorded an interview with Dwarkesh Patel, who is, they call them Silicon Valley's favorite podcaster. And one of the questions that our supporters asked in the substack section was about Britain and AI. And when you said to him, you know, how. How well is Britain doing on AI? He literally laughed, because, of course, you can't involve yourself in this new growing industry if you've got very, very high energy prices as we do. And even though we have one AI company in the UK Their competitive disadvantage is so huge and will become even Worse, if this economic situation deteriorates, that we're just not going to be able to have a functioning economy. And look, we should be honest with people. You know, I don't see Britain as a viable place to live for anyone who wants to run any kind of business, including a small business like ours, if you've got a Zach Polanski premiership. I just. I don't. I think. I think at that point, even people like us who are desperate to stay and want to make Britain better, we would have to look at that and say, there is no future for us here.

[Harry Foster]

And that's a very real concern, because it's not just. And there'll be people making jokes in the comments. Fair enough. But it's not as if we'll be an isolated case. There will be huge swathes of entrepreneurs, people who create jobs, who create wealth to create opportunities for others, who will look at the economic situation in the UK and go, this is no longer viable.

[Francis Foster]

Well, hold on. You say we won't be an isolated case, we're an isolated case now. We're an isolated case now. Everyone who does a big podcast in the uk, when they get to not even the size we have now, smaller, what do they do?

[Harry Foster]

They leave.

[Francis Foster]

They leave. So we are already an isolated case in that we are desperate to stay and try and make Britain better so that our families can live there and enjoy themselves there. I mean, when I was on Stephen Bartlett show the last time Dara CEO, we talked about this, I said to him, we've never talked about this, Stephen, but I bet you can name 50 people off the top of your head who've left the UK in the last few years who are entrepreneurs, business owners, and was like, yeah, of course. So if you've got an economic problem of the kind that we've described, followed by the election of the populist left, you will lose everyone, everyone who creates jobs and can take their business somewhere else.

[Harry Foster]

Agreed. And when you think about it, our economy is essentially dependent on financial services. How many of them are going to stick around if that happens? If we get these kind of taxation, if we get this kind of politics come in, we're essentially going to return to the 1970s, where the top rate of tax was 90% for the, for the highest earners.

[Francis Foster]

And we should say this man, like, look, we've. In the last couple of years, we've become fairly successful. We pay a lot of tax. I don't mind. I don't mind effectively paying, you know, I don't know what the Effect of tax rate. Exactly. But it's probably something like 40%, let's say. Let's say it's 50% even. I actually don't mind paying 50% tax to live in a country with good infrastructure, with safety, with good schools, with good health care, with a functioning government, et cetera. But we don't have any of those things anymore, and we're getting poorer all the time. And now you want to bring in people who are going to make things a lot worse. On top of that,

[Sponsor/Advertisement Voice]

if you are

[Francis Foster]

the head of a household, you would not be responsible in keeping your family in that situation if you had the option to have them somewhere else. To say nothing about the fact that obviously, as you've just discussed, the problem of Islamist terrorism, but just integration more broadly is very acute in Britain in a way that it's not remotely like this in the US and in many other parts of the world. So you put all that together. This has the potential, this conflict, if it goes badly, has the potential to make worse things that are already very bad for people in Britain and for the country itself.

[Harry Foster]

Agreed, Agreed. And that's why, when I look at this conflict, I'm not hopeful. But I really do hope that over the next weeks and months, they can sit down in Pakistan or another country if the talks in Pakistan don't come to anything, don't come to fruition, and actually get this sorted out. Because the longer we carry on down this path, the worse it's going to be for everyone involved, but particularly Europe, particularly the UK and particularly our economies and our politics. Because what we need right now is a lurch away from these types of extremist policies and get back to something more calm and reasonable and stable and sane. And that means an economic policy that actually works for the majority of people, not appealing to people's worst and base instincts and point the finger at others and going. The reason that this country is screwed economically is because of this person or this billionaire, when the reality is the world and life is far more complicated than that. We need to have people who are of the elite, whether it's media or politics, who are actually able to dial down the rhetoric and begin to have better conversations about geopolitics.

[Francis Foster]

You can't dial down the rhetoric. You can't dial down the rhetoric. If things are getting worse, it's not going to happen. Why would people dial down the rhetoric if the situation in the country is getting worse, not better? The reason the rhetoric is dialed up is people are desperate. The reason the right is as vocal about immigration as it is, is that people feel that the situation has become desperate. And they're right. They're right. I mean, we had, in the course of this trip, Robert Greene, who I think in terms of his politics, particularly on immigration, is like, I don't know if he's pro open borders, exactly, but he's as close to that as you can get without being actually pro open borders. And he said when he went to France, he looked around in Paris and said, this country is losing its national identity. People in Britain, a lot of them, particularly those on the right, feel like the country is losing its national identity because of the scale of mass immigration that we had. And people on the left, and frankly, across the political spectrum who are not billionaires and who didn't have huge assets that have inflated over the last 20 or 30 years, feel that the economic situation is desperate. And they're right, because we have got poorer since 2008, and we certainly haven't got richer since 2008, on average. And you can perfectly understand people's sense of frustration and the fact that their living standards haven't risen in basically 20 years. And now you've got this potential economic disaster looming as well. You put all that together, no one's going to dial down the red checkmate. That's why you have to fix the actual problems.

[Harry Foster]

Yeah, but I was talking also about the way we talk about geopolitics in Israel and all of the rest of it. What we've tried to do on our show is provide an antidote to that and go, look, these are contentious subjects and these are contentious issues, but there is a way to do this and actually have a conversation like we do with Dave Smith or like we did with Mehdi, about who we disagree with on many different things, but ultimately assume good faith in the person who you're talking to and actually try and see if you can come to some kind of agreement or if not, maybe you can learn or change or alter or,

[Francis Foster]

you know, sometimes you have someone on. And Mehdi is a good example. Our job is not to challenge every single thing that he says, even if we don't agree, but it's to show you what his perspective is. And you can like it, you can hate it, whatever, but we have to address people's actual arguments instead of just this mudslinging that you see. And even, you know, I've obviously been very critical of Tucker Carlson for a long time, but even there, I criticize the things that he says and the actions that he takes. I Don't call them names. And I don't think that works at all. I don't think people, you know, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe in criticizing some of his arguments, I probably also call them names. I don't. Have I ever called them names. I don't think so. Maybe I have. We'll find out. The Internet will fact check me on this. But my broader point is you have to address people's arguments, of course, and not enough of that is happening. So look, we'll continue to cover this. I suspect, unfortunately, this conflict will run. I hope it doesn't. But if it does, we will continue to speak to different people with different perspectives in order to come to someone better understanding of where we are. Just like we did with the war in Gaza where we took a full year, really, before commenting on it at all. This, I think, is more immediate and the consequences are much more impactful on the rest of the world and us. So we'll keep covering it and we'll, you know, I appreciate that not everyone who is a fan of our show will agree with what we've laid out here. And that is the right. We've done this many times. You know, I remember when we criticized BLM in the summer of 2020. Some people didn't like it when we criticized January 6th. After that, the people who loved us criticizing BLM didn't like it. And we go through this over time, but the only thing we can do is speak the truth as we see it at the time. And that's what we're going to carry on doing.

[Harry Foster]

Absolutely. And hopefully everything will calm down and the rest of 2026 will be smooth sailing.

[Francis Foster]

It's only, it's only March, believe it or not.