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- [00:00]
Francis
Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile with a message for everyone paying big wireless way too much. Please, for the love of everything good in this world, stop with Mint. You can get premium wireless for just $15 a month. Of course, if you enjoy overpaying. No judgments.
- [00:14]
Mike Baker
But that's weird.
- [00:15]
Francis
Okay, one judgment anyway. Give it a try. @mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment of $45 for
- [00:23]
Mike Baker
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- [00:25]
Francis
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- [00:26]
Mike Baker
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- [00:28]
Francis
taxes and fees extra. See full terms@mintmobile.com
- [00:32]
Mike Baker
I'm not saying they don't deserve an ass kicking. I'm just saying that I can believe that this probably wasn't well thought through. They were probably a little intoxicated from the Venezuela experience.
- [00:42]
Ryan
I don't mean to put too fine a term on it, but it's a massive F up, isn't it?
- [00:49]
Francis
There's been like incredible levels of support for the war from Trump's base.
- [00:53]
Mike Baker
Yes.
- [00:54]
Francis
Is that going to last if this drank's on?
- [00:56]
Mike Baker
No, that support even from the base is not going to last if people start to think this thing's dragging on into the early summer.
- [01:04]
Ryan
One of the issues that we haven't addressed is terrorism and global terrorism. And there's a very real threat now that Iran is going to launch a global wave of terror.
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Mike Baker
My bigger concern is all the individuals out there, the lone wolf, who get triggered by this.
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Francis
Mike Baker, welcome back to Trigonometry.
- [01:23]
Mike Baker
Thank you very much. Thank you.
- [01:24]
Francis
Great, great to have you. An interesting time to have you.
- [01:27]
Mike Baker
Obviously it's, it seems that way.
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Francis
There's a lot going on.
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Mike Baker
Yeah, there is a lot going on.
- [01:32]
Francis
Before we get into what's going to happen, what is your analysis of how we got here?
- [01:39]
Mike Baker
Well, we got here because for almost 50 years, right. The Iranian regime has kind of stuck to their guns. Right. They've been remarkably consistent. Right. Over that time, to be fair, they've only had two supreme leaders. Now maybe they've got a third, we don't know because no one's seen the new leader, Mujtaba. But after roughly 50 years of creating instability in the Middle east and refusing to negotiate in good faith about their nuclear program, continuing to ramp up their missile program and then finally slaughtering yet again, but this time in more numbers, thousands of their own citizens during the last round of demonstrations, I think that was kind of it. That was the thing that put them over the top, along with the fact that they just refused to budge off their negotiating tactic, which was we're not talking about anything other than a element, a small element of their nuclear program.
- [02:40]
Francis
Were they not willing to, like, I don't know what the technical term is, but basically to merge their uranium so that it was at a low enrichment level was, did they not say, they talked about.
- [02:52]
Mike Baker
And this is, this is where it becomes difficult, right? Because, you know, there is, there's this perception that intelligence is like the movies or the beach books. Right? It's all this or it's all that. Right. The reality is with Iran, it's been a very heavy lift over all these years to understand with clarity what is going on there within their programs, particularly their missile and their nuclear programs. What they were talking about was taking that 60% enriched uranium and there is no, no peaceful civilian purpose for 60% enriched uranium. There just isn't. Right. And so they were talking about, well, we could reduce that down to 20%. The problem is with the enrichment process getting to 60%, getting to 20% even, you've done most of the heavy lift, moving it on to 90% or thereabouts, where is considered weapons grade. That's the speediest part. So 5%, 4%. If there was intelligence that said all these years that's all they had, because they keep claiming that they've got a civilian, peaceful purpose for this, then I think things would have been different at this point. But people talk about, well, my God, the Trump administration, they, they started this conflict during the middle of negotiations. Reality was that was it was negotiations in name only. There was no real serious effort, much like they've done in the past. They were just looking to buy time.
- [04:15]
Francis
And the question is now whether regime change was ever realistic or going to happen. Right. What's your assessment of this? Because we had a bunch of people over the course of the last week on the show and, you know, some of the arguments have been put forward is like regime change isn't going to work and never was going to work, and therefore this is a big mistake.
- [04:39]
Mike Baker
Well, toppling regime, a regime, any regime, by air operations only, is that's a low percentage shot. So you can, you know, lots of things can be true at the same time. Like personally, I can think that it's about time that this regime leaves the planet.
- [04:59]
Francis
Right.
- [04:59]
Mike Baker
And gives the people of Iran a better future. You know, some, some form of government that could do that. I can believe that you're never going to get long term peace and stability in the Middle east as long as this particular regime exists. Because their stated objective constantly has been one thing the destruction of Israel. They built their proxy network for that purpose. Proxies all have the same objective. And frankly, most of the regional actors we're starting to see that now would much rather see this regime go, okay, I can believe all of that. At the same time, I can believe that this probably wasn't well thought through.
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Francis
Right, right.
- [05:36]
Mike Baker
And that if you've watched this, I had a good friend who was one of the hostages during the. When the takeover, when the Shaw fell. If you've watched this regime for all these years, it's not hard to understand where they are now.
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Francis
Right.
- [05:57]
Mike Baker
You watched them over the years build a system, Right. Between the clerical authority, the political authority, however you want to refer to it, and the military and the IRGC, that was very robust, could withstand something like this over the years. So you've got a commander in the irgc. Well, now they've got three others in line who they know will take that person's place if something happens to them. Right. This is how they've developed this over the years. So I'm just, you know, I think that perhaps. I'm not saying they don't deserve an ass kicking. I'm just saying that I think there were people who thought this was going to be easier than it was, and that's surprising. I think there were people who didn't see that the Strait of Hormuz would become the thing. Right. It's the only leverage point they've really got. Right. And so to think that somehow, straight up, Hormuz wouldn't become closed, in a sense, not officially closed, but it's closed for all intents and purposes. That to me would be. I'd like to think everyone's thought this through, I guess, is what I'm saying. It doesn't appear that way because there still seem to be some people in Washington surprised that. Oh, my God. What do you mean? We've shut down the flow of 20% of the world's oil, LNG, you know, along with everything else that goes through the strait. So that's what I mean by. I'm not sure that this was completely well thought through.
- [07:26]
Francis
And how is that possible? You're like your ex CIA. I mean, the United States has the biggest intelligence operation in the world, the biggest military in the world, the most military planners in the world.
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Mike Baker
You sound like the US President. We've got the biggest military.
- [07:40]
Francis
You do, you do. And therefore it is. This is the bit that doesn't sound like the President. United States. It's extraordinary that we might be sitting Here, weeks into a conflict going, I can't believe they didn't think it through. How, how does that happen?
- [07:56]
Mike Baker
Yeah, it's, it's, it's a great question. I think there's probably a lot of people trying to think about that. But look, if the Pentagon has a lot of smart people and a lot of mid and senior level people who came up through the Afghan experience, right? Combat operations, Afghanistan and Iraq, real world experience right now, does that mean that they are listened to? I don't know. I'm not sitting in the room. I'm just saying that I, I can't imagine that there weren't briefings where someone pointed to a big map of the street of Hormuz and said, you know, it's about 21 miles wide, but it's actually much narrower because of the depths and because of the, the corridors for the shipping lanes. Here's what they've done in the past. They've closed it before, they've threatened to close it constantly. We all knew that. How are we going to prevent that from happening? But now we're in a position where we're saying, well, geez, we sure like China to come in and help, or we're asking other countries to come in and help. That seems to be an indication that perhaps there was some surprise and maybe it was because they thought the regime was going to collapse. You know, once we had very good intelligence about that initial strike on some of the leadership, including the Supreme Leader, and maybe there was this feeling because people always think they can do it better, right? Every generation thinks they can do something better. Maybe that was part of it. And they thought that we'll get regime change. They were probably a little intoxicated from the Venezuela experience.
- [09:27]
Ryan
I mean, I don't mean to put too fine a term on it, but it's a massive up, isn't it?
- [09:35]
Mike Baker
Well, it depends on how you define it. Depends on what the word is is, as Bill Clinton said. But who, by the way, I think is a very smart individual. You know, I guess, full disclosure, I'm a centrist Republican. I like national security. Like secure borders, like smart immigration policy, like fiscal responsibility. You know, those things often don't come around very often. So it is a. If you define which is what's happening, the goalposts are moving. If you define victory as a significant degrading of their military capabilities, their missile program, for example, then it's not really a up. Because what you're looking to do is every administration's done the same thing. They've just put lipstick on this pig and hoped that somebody else would deal with it. So if you define it as okay, we have now kicked the ball further down the field than any other administration. They're still in power in some form. It's probably a much hardened administration now, run more by the IRGC than it ever has been. But if you define that as a win, which I think is what we're going to see, along with some additional damage to their nuclear program, which again, continues to be difficult in terms of assessing, then okay, it's not a complete up. But if you defined it as we are going to remove this regime, then, yeah, you're not winning.
- [11:07]
Ryan
And we're not winning in another sense because we've been talking about the straight of Hormuz and that is Iran's trump card. Just talk a little bit. What it actually means for the global economy, if it continues with the shutdown or if Iran continues with the shutdown, I should say, yeah.
- [11:22]
Mike Baker
And it doesn't take much. That's the thing, right. And they. Because what you're doing is you're impacting perception.
- [11:29]
Francis
Right.
- [11:29]
Mike Baker
If you convince the insuring businesses out there, the insurance companies, the shipping industry that it's just not worth that effort to haul that tanker through there, then they've won. Even if all they've done is hit maybe a dozen and a half vessels over all this period of time. It doesn't take much at all. So closing, what's that, 1/5 or so of oil flows through the strait. Everybody's been talking about that. Now, we're all experts on the straight. But also lng, right, Is, is an important aspect of this for Europe. Right. In particular for, for Asia.
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Ryan
Explain what LNG is.
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Mike Baker
Liquid fied natural gas.
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Ryan
Okay.
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Mike Baker
Right. So, and then all the other things that go through there, Fertilizers, right. For food production.
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Francis
50% of the world's traded fertilizer goes through there. This is me being an expert now.
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Mike Baker
Yeah, look at you.
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Francis
I've been doing the reading. And helium, which we use for cooling, microchip fabrication facilities, like there's some. This is real impact.
- [12:25]
Mike Baker
It's a, it's a real significant impact. People can feel it. In the US for example, people see it at the pump, right. That's the, that's the first place they see it, which is why suddenly the straight became so. Right. Important because they have, in the US they have midterm elections coming up in November, and there's no easier way to get your ass kicked in an election than to be responsible for spiraling gas prices at the fuel pump. So this, that's what it comes down to, you know, politics. So now the focus is on how do we prevent that. Again, you would argue that perhaps that would have been here in this playbook, that you'd pull out as soon as the bomb started dropping because you knew that's where the Iranians would go because they can't match the US And Israel toe to toe for military capabilities. So, yeah, it is likely that the US Is going to try to figure out a way to negotiate a settlement if they can figure out who to talk to, so that they don't have to begin the process of escorting tankers and ships through the strait, and so that they don't have to think about taking Karga island, which is responsible for the Iranians anyway for kicking nine out of ten barrels of oil out of the country. Right. So that's a very important site for them. They don't want to do that. If you start escorting ships through the strait, saying, oh, the straits, you know, it's open, yay. You know, now, now we want gas prices to go down. Well, for how long are you going to do that for? That's very costly. And all it takes is one drone, right, to hit one of those vessels and you're right back where you started. So that sounds a bit like an indefinite effort. And I don't think the administration wants to get engaged in that. So I think that if they can figure out who to talk to and whomever they talk to has some level of agreement from other factions within that government now that's kind of operating in a fashion that is much less top down, then they'll probably go that direction.
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Ryan
It seems to me that Iran have got a stranglehold with the Strait of Hormuz on the global economy, haven't they?
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Mike Baker
Yeah, in a sense they do. Yeah, they do. And that's, and again, that's, that's why I keep going back to the same thing, which is how you not see that when you've got recent examples where they've used it for that purpose. Right. So you, you knew this was going to happen.
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Francis
When did they use it before it was.
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Mike Baker
What are we in 20 clever. I am 2026, I want to say. 2019, I think was the last time I'm maybe.
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Francis
So they do this regularly?
- [15:11]
Mike Baker
Well, I don't want to say regularly, but they've done it before and they've also threatened to do it regularly. Again, I keep going back to that same thing. If it's all hindsight, I get that. And I'm not privy to the intelligence that the White House has. So when they talk about there was an imminent threat, I don't know. None of us here know, Right. And unless you're in those briefings and have access to it, and that information is very close held. Right. Intelligence is compartmentalized. So just because you have someone who had clearances and was in a position, they may not know about what's happening over here, you know, what you're supposed to be doing, right. If you're responsible for, you know, some operation in, you know, in former Soviet Union, for instance, you're not going to know crap about what's going on over here because you have a need to know. So I don't know what they consider to be an imminent threat, as they put it, but one scenario could have been that they worked a little bit closer with allies and they gamed out. What we're going to do when the Iranians start to create havoc in the Strait and then you got people on board, including the Gulf states. Obviously the Gulf states are, you know, they won't say it publicly, but they're probably, you know, happy as pigs and shit right over the way this could be going. I think they're getting worried because they probably also thought maybe we got a chance to change the government here.
- [16:41]
Ryan
Because the worrying thing is for me, and again, push back on this, I'm just a regular Joe, blah, blah, blah. But you look at the Strait of Hormuz shutting down and you go immediately, there is a timeline here. This can't carry on indefinitely and Iran are the one holding the cards because we need it opened. If not, we're going to be in dire straits economically. And by we, I mean the globe. And eventually pressure's going to come to bear on the Americans and then they're gonna have to capitulate. Or am I projecting?
- [17:15]
Mike Baker
No, no, I don't think you're projecting. I think they'll capitulate because of politics, because of the midterm election then. Because then they don't want it down. Looking down the road, you know, I will say that in, in the US People don't tend to have a long term vision in politics. Right? They're looking at whatever election is right in front of them, but there will be Some looking at 2028 and the white House. So this, you know, this is being played out from that lens. And I don't think you're going to see again, I don't think you're going to See, a prolonged effort here. I think all this talk you're hearing from the White House about having these negotiations, part of that is kind of the stuff that Trump does. I don't think, anyway, you should never take the President literally, but people do, and it drives them crazy because they take him literally. They think, no, no, no, no. He's just throwing at the wall sometimes to see what sticks, right? His origins is a tri State property developer, right? That's what he does. You punch somebody in the nose, you back, you throw at the wall, you see what sticks. You go that route, come up with a deal. Very transactional. So I think they're trying to figure out, but again, this problem is that the irgc, the Revolutionary Guard Corps, has found themselves where they want to be, which is in a more direct command role. I think the clerics have realized that perhaps that they're taking a backseat, but they'll continue the optic of, of running the show, you know, and, and the politicians, you know that. Who knows, right? I mean, now they're talking about the speaker of the Parliament being the guy that maybe they're talking to, and he's saying, nobody's talking to me. We're not having any of these discussions, which shouldn't be a surprise. If you're having discussions, maybe you, you know, you prefer people not to think you are, right? So I get that if there's something going on behind the scenes, I don't know, but I do think they're going to be desperate to try to make that happen. Because you're right. Otherwise down the road, right? The only, so far, the only country that's really not worried about this in a big way is China. They're the only ones getting oil out of the Strait. Almost all those tankers that are going through with Iranian oil are going to China. So, you know, and once again, they're fairly delighted that this is preoccupied. The US Gives them a really good look at our military capabilities and the hardware and where they're lacking in terms of their modernization. So nothing happens in a bubble, right? Everything's connected. So that's why I appear to be rambling.
- [19:51]
Francis
Most people think they're informed. In reality, they're selectively informed. Modern media doesn't just tell stories. It quietly decides which ones you never hear about at all. That's why I use Ground News. It's the only app that compares how the same story is covered across a political spectrum and show you what whole audiences are not being told. The Blindspot feed is one of my favorite features. Every Day it flags upwards of 20 stories that are being ignored either by the left or the right. Follow along at Ground News Trigonometry. Take this story. A major US poll found that Republican voters confidence in Trump's economic leadership has dropped sharply during his second term. That is not a minor data point. If you only read right leaning publications you would have missed this completely. On the other hand, look at this. The UAE drops UK from scholarship list over radicalization concerns on university campuses. That's a significant story. Yet coverage from left leaning outlets was almost non existent. Ground News puts all of this in one place. Headlines, bias, breakdowns, ownership and context. So you can actually understand what's going on, not just react to what you're told. Go to Ground News trigonometry to get 40% off their unlimited vantage plan, the same one we use, and stop being
- [21:03]
Ryan
managed by the media, which is, you're not rambling at all. And because what we're dealing with here effectively is unknowns. And then you see how America bombed, not America, sorry, Iran bombed the gas field of Ras Lafan. And you go, they're responsible, I think for around 15% of all the world's gas. And you're going, I mean if it wants to, Iran can literally plunge us into a global economy if it just decides, sorry, global recession, apologies. It can plunge us into a global recession if it just wants to go all in.
- [21:41]
Mike Baker
If it, you know, and who knows, maybe, I guess I would hope that's one of the scenarios they've mapped out, which is that what if they consider this an existential threat? Then maybe they just say let's see what happens. And they, and they, you know, I mean, they've already kind of in a way done that. Right. Look, you have to remember a lot of those regional actors were on Iraq side during the Iran Iraq war. So you know, Iran, the, the Islamic Republic hasn't forgotten that. You know, they, they're not under the impression that those countries are, are on their side in some fashion. Most of them tried over the past handful of years, right, to try to have some level of detente or diplomacy or something to see whether that would work. I think most of them feel like that didn' work out. And so there is this, this notion that, look, if they, if they really feel as if this is it and their backs against the wall, then, you know, what, what are they going to try to do? Well, look, you know, what's their capabilities at this point? They've been well, degraded, right, but it doesn't take much to blow up Some power plants blow up, some desalination plants blow up, you know, some energy infrastructure. And they've got all that mapped out. Amazing thing is they've been getting targeting data from both the Russians and the Chinese, which is, which is kind of fascinating. And the White House has been a little dismissive of the reporting that says the Russians have been assisting not just in targeting data, but also in how to make those drone attacks more lethal, more efficient, more effective, because they've obviously had a fair amount of experience now over the past four years of Putin's invasion. So that again, you know what I'm, what I'm trying to say, I'm always trying to point out that it's not just here, you know.
- [23:26]
Ryan
Sure, yeah.
- [23:27]
Mike Baker
You know, it's happening all over.
- [23:28]
Francis
Well, and look, as someone who's very pro Ukraine, I nonetheless will say this. I mean, the Russians will say, look at America, how much they're helping Ukraine. You're giving them all the satellite information, you're giving them weapons, you're giving them money, you're giving them. So, like, why wouldn't we help Iran in the situation? And this is the concern. I mean, you talk about what would happen if they just. The escalation threat is what I think a lot of people are rightly worried about. Because if the administration goes harder, Iran is forced to go harder. And then when we had Robert Papon, that's kind of one of the things he explained is if, say, you have a Marine attempt at a landing on Khaag island or to try and take control of the strait, that forces Iran to take this more seriously. They then destroy all kinds of stuff around the Middle east and also in their own country because they're like, well, what do we have to lose?
- [24:18]
Mike Baker
Yeah, I think this idea, look, they've got, I believe, a second Marine Expeditionary unit heading out there. Each of those mews carry about, what, 2,500 Marines and then another couple thousand sailors or so to support those operations. They're really a self contained assault force. Right. And much like we had two carrier strike groups on, on target, you don't do that just to posture. Right. You're not doing this just because you want to show what you can do. Right. So that was an indication along with the fact that they had gotten so many tankers out there. Right. Which obviously are key to all this aerosol operations. Got to be able to refuel the, the fact that you're getting those Marines on, on target. You have to imagine, you know, there's a contingency plan likely for an assault on Clark Island. Now, again, I think they're going to do everything possible to try to avoid that and declare a big win. Right. And then. And then back out of this thing. And whether that happens or not, Iran may have a say in whether that happens or not. But if you put boots on the ground in Cargill island, doesn't take much. The Iranian regime may decide, okay, well, we're not going after the Saudis. We're not going after uae, because those players, not just them, but the other players also, they're very close to pushing their chips into the center of the table and saying, that's it. We're going from a defensive posture to an offensive posture. So they may stop short of that, but they will definitely target US Military on Carg Island. And you could almost piss on Carg island from the shoreline. Right. I mean, you're not talking about a massive, complex issue. They just have to be successful a handful of times. And then you've got the issue of the US and the population, which is already still. A lot of people have forgotten it, but there's still a lot of folks fatigued from the global war on terror. So you start losing more personnel, because now we're in something that doesn't look anything like what they were told it was going to be at the outset. Yeah. Now you got a problem. And the Iranian regime, they're not stupid.
- [26:39]
Francis
Right.
- [26:40]
Mike Baker
A lot of them are dead, but the ones that are living are not stupid. They will have thought this through.
- [26:45]
Francis
Right. One thing I want to talk about, Mike, which we haven't addressed here, is you talked about the US Allies in the region. One of them is Israel. And just for people who. Who may be coming to this fresh, who don't know our backstory with it, after October 7th, we really didn't comment very much on. On. On Israel and that situation for about a year. The only thing we've ever really said, we've interviewed people who are very pro Israel, very pro Palestine, somewhere in the middle, everybody. And where we came down on it among, you know, among other things, is kind of the one thing we've always said about Israel. We don't want to be hypocrites and be like, oh, look how terrible what they're doing in Gaza is, because I know if our country had been attacked in the way that they were on October 7, we would have bombed the shit out of anyone who stood next to anyone who walked the dog of anyone who has had anything to do with it. That's a fact.
- [27:33]
Mike Baker
And the dog.
- [27:34]
Francis
And the dog. Right. And we wouldn't have given a. About any of it. So I'm not going to sit here in comfort and safety, isolated from Hamas and Hezbollah and all of that, and tell Israelis how they should do this. You know, we would have done the same. But even we are starting to look at this and we kind of going, I mean, Israel has got its own, you know, Bibi Netanyahu as the leader of Israel. You talk to Israelis now. A lot of Israelis are like, Netanyahu is kind of, you know, he's off the rails a little bit here. And it's becoming very clear, by the way, that Israel and the United States have different agendas here. And it looks to me, I may be completely wrong, but I'm just saying what I'm thinking in the moment. Francis and I talk about this a lot because it's a thing that we think about. It looks like to many people now. And when we talk to people in America, like normal people, not people who are like anti Israel, anti Semitic, people who are balanced and reasonable are kind of going well in this conflict. It looks to us like the US has drawn into something that's bad for the US While Israel is getting kind of a lot of what it wanted here. Is that a fair assessment?
- [28:41]
Mike Baker
It's an assessment. I don't know.
- [28:43]
Francis
You can say it's.
- [28:44]
Mike Baker
I don't know. Well, no, I don't know that I'm qualified to say whether it's a fair. A fair assessment or not. Right. Because again, not being privy to the conversations that took place leading up to this. Yes. You've got a lot of folks that say, oh, my God, Israel dragged them into this war.
- [28:58]
Francis
Yeah, I don't think that's true because I don't imagine Israel can, like, small country drag a big country. It doesn't make any sense. But what I'm saying is something else, which is from an Israeli perspective. Just thinking rationally, I may be totally wrong. I'm not an expert. Bombing the out of Iran is always a good thing. Iran is a regional rival. It funds Hamas, it funds Hezbollah, it funds the Houthis. So you're degrading their ability. The ballistic missile program, the drones. Wonderful. Irrespective of nuclear weapons, irrespective of regime change, you just mow the lawn. But the United States is put itself and the global economy now at risk in some ways for an objective that matters a lot less, I would argue, to the United States.
- [29:42]
Mike Baker
Yeah, I think. Yeah. Just proximity. Right. I mean, look, you know, Israel' Dealing with an existential threat. Right. They're surrounded by, by this problem.
- [29:52]
Francis
Yeah.
- [29:52]
Mike Baker
Right. And so, yeah, you're right in a sense. Right. The U.S. so, but, but U.S. administrations, they tend to, sometimes they, they will act in a way that you look and you think, well, what. Why are they doing this? Right. Why do they feel as if they need to do this? There's some moral obligation or there's some desire to spread democracy or whatever the reason may be. And so, again, staying away from this whole idea of Israel and what their, their intention, I think here is, is not to. Not to bring this to a close in the same way that. That the US Is looking to do. Right. They're not facing the same or calculating this the same way. Right. And so I think what we're seeing is Netanyahu and he's always had his. Distract his detractors inside Israel. Right. So that's nothing new. Right. There's. There's a large contingent there in Israel that thinks like, you know, if we could just get rid of Netanyahu, we'll all live in peace somehow. And, you know, so I. Putting Israeli politics aside, because I'm definitely not qualified to talk about it from a military perspective, from an operational perspective. Right. They seem to have done this. They've pushed their chips and said, we are using this as an opportunity because if we don't, if we don't get to a point, again, I don't know that they're thinking regime change. I think they're a little bit too pragmatic for that, you know, But I think they're thinking we have to be comfortable with the, with the amount of damage we've done to the Iranian military capabilities, particularly the missile program. They've been more worried about the missile program for years than they have been about the nuclear program then. And also with their proxies, particularly Hezbollah. Right. I think that's, that's where they want to be. They want to be comfortable enough. And they've got. Their intelligence in that region tends to be better than U.S. intelligence. Right. I mean, again, because of proximity and years of having to do this and their abilities of working within that environment. So they. You're right. And you can see these different agendas now, you know, and they're diverging. And then you've got the other part of it, which is what do the Gulf states think? What do the Saudis think? And there's some interesting reporting, whether it's accurate or not. Again, you have to kind of balance it out and say, well, let's see if it gets corroborated here somehow. But with mbs, with the head of Saudi talking about staying in the fight, he's urging supposedly the White House to, to not stop. Right. Because most of those folks out there know that if you leave the regime in place, at some point they're gonna have to do this over again. Someone's gonna have to do this over again. Right. Because it's not as if they're going to give up. If the theocracy stays in place, it's not like they're going to have a. I was about to say come to Jesus moment, but guess that's not happening.
- [32:52]
Francis
That seems unlikely.
- [32:53]
Mike Baker
That seems unlikely, but. So they're going to maintain their objectives. It's just going to be much harder for them. And like I said, the can's been kicked much further down the road. So maybe now instead of a couple years of a window, now they're looking at 10 years, 15 years to rebuild and get to a point where then it has to happen again. But it will have to happen again. I don't think they're changing their stripes if they stay in place.
- [33:17]
Francis
And in fact, some would argue they now have a much stronger incentive to get a nuke, an actual nuke. Before this, they were enriching uranium. Now they actually have an incentive to build the bomb and test it. So we know they have a bomb as quickly as possible. So this can't happen again.
- [33:32]
Mike Baker
Right. Right.
- [33:33]
Francis
Can we stop that?
- [33:35]
Mike Baker
Is it, it's possible to stop it. Do we have the will or the, the. I mean, we have the ability, I
- [33:43]
Francis
think short of invading the whole country with 2 million men.
- [33:46]
Mike Baker
Exactly.
- [33:47]
Francis
Can we stop it in another way?
- [33:49]
Mike Baker
I think yes. I think they did not, they definitely didn't obliterate the president again. Don't take the president literally when he says obliterated it. You think, no, you didn't. But of course it came back to bite him in the ass. Right.
- [34:00]
Francis
Well, if you'd obliterated, we wouldn't be having this war now.
- [34:03]
Mike Baker
Right. I mean, go after the missile program maybe, but we wouldn't be still talking about Natanz and the other facilities, so. But I do think that they, they could. But it, you know, never say never. Right. You never get to a zero risk in any of this. Right. So there's, there's always that slight chance that, I mean, nobody really has solid intel on where the enriched uranium is. Maybe it's buried well underground at this point. Maybe some of it was moved. Maybe the North Koreans decide After looking at this, they think, hey, we made the right move. We raced to get that nuke weapon. Now look at us, we're safe. Like you said, the Iranians, you know, the regime will take that lesson. Maybe the North Koreans step in and help, right? I mean, the Russians have been helping them with technology transfer for the past four years in exchange, you know, it wasn't pro bono on the part of the Iranian government to help them with drone technology. So yeah, there's there, there is that fact that if the regime stays in place, it's, it's more hardline, probably the IRGC has more say in things likely. And I don't think they're going to change their stripes and give up. There was a little bit of talk, there was talk the other day about, well, you know, this conversation that supposedly is taking place off the radar with somebody in the Iranian regime. They floated the idea that we'll give up our nuclear ambitions, thinking like, no, they're not.
- [35:27]
Francis
Why would they do that?
- [35:28]
Mike Baker
Yeah, exactly. But you know, again, I think they read American politics pretty well and they probably saying, look, maybe the White House just wants something to grasp onto and claim victory and say, look what we did, you know, Try to get back to normal.
- [35:44]
Ryan
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- [37:30]
Mike Baker
You know, I think it's within the realm of possibility. It's like, do aliens exist? Sure. Yeah. And don't. How. You know, don't say no. Well, that would seem silly and preposterous and a little bit arrogant. But I think with, with that idea of nukes, I think, would they use it? I think a, I think a regime like theirs is, is the possibility is increased somewhat because of the, the zealous nature of a theocracy. And again, because of this. Look, people have done, you know, incredible things in the name of religion over the life of this planet. And so I wouldn't. It kind of comes back around when again, the White House came out with this. We had an imminent threat. I don't know. Was it imminent? Who knows? And then the president comes out and says, you know, if we hadn't done what we did on the 20th of February, what did he say within two weeks, you know, they would have had a nuclear weapon. I don't know. I don't know that he got that intel.
- [38:34]
Ryan
Right.
- [38:35]
Mike Baker
And I don't know that the intel was credible and I don't know if he had the intel that he should actually say it in a press conference. But do I think that there's a possibility that if they had reached that, that stage that now you're a little bit more angst ridden because they've got it and they have stated many, many times that, you know, they're primary objective is the destruction of Israel. Get them off the map. There's that possibility, I guess. And nukes come in all shapes and sizes. Right. You don't necessarily have to drop the big one. Right. But anyway, I don't think anybody in the region wants them to have that. We're not. So the US and Israel are not alone in this, in a sense. Right.
- [39:18]
Francis
Well, hold on, Mike. See, sorry to buy into your line of question, for instance, but this is the really important distinction that we've explored with all kinds of guests. We've had experts on Islamism on the show, we've had Iranian dissidents on the show. We've had all kinds of people on the show and whenever we bring up, you know, well, why does Iran want nuclear weapons? Why should we fear Iran having nuclear weapons? They always go, oh yeah, you know, they practice this 12 Shia Islam, which means that they're waiting for the Messiah and blah, blah, blah. So therefore, you know, you can't trust them because religion and blah, blah, blah, whenever we push those people on that issue, they always kind of back away. And so then I go, okay, well, what if Iran, I mean, much more likely scenarios, Iran wants nuclear weapons for the same reason everybody wants nuclear weapons, which means you get to dominate your region, you can't be invaded, you can do whatever the hell you want, you can fund your proxies to attack Israel and nobody's going to bomb the out of you, et cetera, et cetera. And that seems to me like the much more likely explanation.
- [40:17]
Mike Baker
Well, I think it's the more, I don't want to say safe, it's the more logical explanation because nobody knows if they would use a nuclear weapon or not. Right. I mean, that's just a reality. I don't have a clue. But I would, would I be a little more concerned if they have it? Would I be more concerned that because you just said they would do whatever they want? Well, we've already seen when they do what they want how bad it is. It's not good. And it's, and it's not good for the stability and long term, you know, success of the region.
- [40:44]
Francis
I don't want to run to have a nuclear weapon. But the point I'm trying to make is it seems to me that people are very cavalier with the claim that the moment they get a nuke, they're going to drop it on television.
- [40:56]
Mike Baker
I don't agree with that.
- [40:57]
Francis
Right.
- [40:57]
Mike Baker
Yeah.
- [40:57]
Francis
And that, and so, so when we talk about that, that worries me that people, because if we actually believe that if we actually saw that they've got nuclear material, they're going to build a bomb and they're going to drop it on Tel Aviv the day that they do, you'd be going, well, then in that case, we literally have to like
- [41:16]
Mike Baker
do to them, do anything possible to
- [41:17]
Francis
what we did to Germany and Japan. Right. That's what we got to do. But no one's talking about doing any of that, which tells me that this is probably bs with all respect.
- [41:26]
Mike Baker
Well, I don't know whether it's bs. I think it's, it's, it is, it's a way to justify, you know, what you're doing. I do think that. And again, I go back to the same thing. I'm clue if they would drop the bomb on Tel Aviv as soon as they get it right. They have stated what they'd like to do to Tel Aviv. We have seen what they've done in the past. We know that they're a destabilizing factor in the region. And that's not just the US saying that, that's the Saudis and the Qataris and everybody else out there. But yeah, I don't disagree with the fact that it is used. Right. As justification when in fact, you don't know that because I don't disagree. They want it for leverage. Right? For sure. Right. And that leverage would allow them then to do kind of what they want to do, certainly in the region.
- [42:20]
Francis
And we don't want that. That's a problem and that's bad. But it's so different from the claim that's being made. And that kind of bothers me. I mean, it's, you know, maybe I'm being naive, but like I don't like it when people are lying about like that. Because it matters. Right?
- [42:33]
Mike Baker
Yeah, I don't know that. I mean, I guess some people, I'm sure, straight up lying. Some people are, who knows, maybe they're couching it in terms of, you know, well, this is just the geopolitical realities that we face. So we have to do this. You know, someone's got to step forward. I don't know, but I don't disagree with the idea that it is used as justification.
- [42:52]
Francis
Right.
- [42:52]
Mike Baker
Without 100% certainty. But you're not gonna get 100% certainty on in this world. Yeah, that's all.
- [42:59]
Francis
Sorry, Francis.
- [43:00]
Ryan
No, no, it's. But moving on now, one of the issues that we haven't addressed is terrorism and global terrorism. And there's a very real threat now that Iran is going to launch a global wave of terror against the uk, The US how big of a concern is that and what do you think the likely impact of that will be?
- [43:21]
Mike Baker
Yeah, you know, here's. I think just from an operational perspective, I think my bigger concern is all the individuals out there, the lone wolf individuals, the copycats, whatever, who get triggered by this and decide not. They don't get a phone call from, you know, or somebody saying, yeah, I want you to go do this now. You know, you're asleep yourself. So now wake up. It's more the people who think this is my justification for going out and doing something. Right. And those in part sometimes because of the disjointed nature of something like that and the inability to see it coming or pick up communications intercepts on something like that. They are very difficult, right, to, to, you know, identify and then to mitigate that risk. So that's the part. The state sponsored issue.
- [44:14]
Ryan
Well, sure.
- [44:15]
Mike Baker
I mean, if I was the Iranian regime over the past handful of years, would I want support assets in the uk Would I want support assets in the US you know, Absolutely. Right. And what would I want them doing? Well, I'd want them, you know, pulling a recce on an interesting site that maybe we would consider to be a soft target. Right. So. So yeah, the, the, the counterterrorism people in the US are stretched then, right? They're, they're working their asses off all the time. But you could argue they've been doing that, you know, for years now. I mean, everybody's tired from the war on terror, but the terrorists aren't tired from it. You know, elements of it. And, and the people that are trying to fight it on the other side on the counterterrorism operations, they, they haven't given up. It's not like they got tired of the whole effort. And so the past few years, they just let it go. So in a sense, there's nothing new there. It's just, yeah, okay, fine, you got a heightened threat alert because of this. But like I said, I think the bigger issue is those people out there that for whatever reason, right, they're, they, they're true believers. They, or they're, you know, they've got mental issues. They're going to look at this and go, this is my, this is my justification.
- [45:27]
Ryan
But that must be a genuine worry for America because once we, since we've been here, which is a comparatively short period of time, we've seen, I think already three Islamist terrorist attacks in the U.S. i mean, you must be worried.
- [45:41]
Mike Baker
Yeah. Oh, everybody. Yeah, everybody's fa. You're worried, but at the same time, you know, you can't sit in your foxhole, right? So you gotta, yeah, you gotta get out and get busy. And I, what I do know is that since 9, 11, all those years ago, which seems like ancient history, right, I've got teenagers and they, I talk to them about it and they kind of look at me like, really? It's like when I talk to my middle boy who's a basketball player, talk to him about the old guys, right? Bob Cousy, Pete Marovitz, they're like, oh, come on. You know, seriously, unk.
- [46:13]
Ryan
Right?
- [46:13]
Mike Baker
Those guys So I think you get to a certain point when you work counterterrorism operations, whether at the local or the state or the federal level or overseas, where you become very pragmatic about it because, you know, the threat's always there. The methodology doesn't tend to change much. Technology can change kind of how you gather intelligence to some degree, but you just kind of keep ticking along. So I'm not saying I'm not worried, I'm just saying, yeah, you just raised the alert, but it's the same problem.
- [46:52]
Ryan
But there's gotta be a renewed focus because from an outsider's point of view, I'm looking at going, so there was one in Michigan with a truckload of explosives trying to drive into a synagogue. Then you had a potential nail bomb attack in New York. Then you had the shooting in Austin.
- [47:10]
Mike Baker
Yeah, I mean, and this comes on the heels of, and this is another thing that I would have been doing if I was the Iranian regime. I would have been taking advantage of what essentially was a very porous border for several years under the previous administration. Vetting just wasn't there. Right. And because they weren't focusing on it, they didn't have the resources down there. And so the customs and border patrol, you know, they did what they could do, but there was really no vetting. And so the idea of how many people came across that border with nefarious intent, right. Whatever it may be, for narcotics trafficking or for terrorism purposes, we don't really know. Right. And so that's a problem. And so it compounded this already, you know, significant issue of, of terrorism on the home front. And you're right, obviously the conflict, anytime you have a conflict, right. You got a problem. I mean, obviously the 7th of October, the heightened, the alert, you know, was, was raised. And it just happens whenever there's something like this, the target can change. Right. And, and who you're looking at. And, but on the other side, again, this idea of the, the, the individual who's triggered into a lone wolf attack, you know, they're, they're always out there. Right. So it, it sometimes, I guess what I'm saying is sometimes with the state sponsored, it can be a, I don't want to say it's easy, but it can be a little less complicated and not quite as much based on luck. You know, with a lone wolf, maybe you get lucky and the individual's cousin sees something and actually says something. Right. That's kind of what you have to hope for is that somebody within that orbit is willing to speak up. If that doesn't happen, you know, it
- [48:53]
Ryan
can be very difficult because senior security officials in the UK have said that they're highly worried that what the Iranians are gonna do is pay petty criminals nominal sums of money like 500 pound, 1000 pound to create small acts of terror in order to destabilize security, to destabilize society. And we saw an incident in the UK a few weeks ago where ambulances were set on fire.
- [49:22]
Mike Baker
Yeah, right.
- [49:23]
Ryan
And Islamist group came out and said, we claim responsibility for this. Now, we don't know, is that a ploy, is that a game, is that a mind game or is it actually true? And what happens is that as that continues, it destabilizes society.
- [49:41]
Mike Baker
It's like shutting down the straddle Hormuz. Right. It doesn't take much, right, to do something that has this outsized impact, right? So a handful of incidents and what have you done? Suddenly, you know, everybody's losing their right. And it becomes a real. After 9 11, you know, that was, that was a major, a major event obviously. I just, that was a statement of rocket science. But people, people kind of pulled together, right? And so you developed a mindset within a population that said. And that was a very helpful thing for a period of time. But then again, like I said, everyone's gotten tired. We kind of got out of that. Everybody's back to listening to their AirPods and staring at their phone when they're walking around. Nobody's operationally aware. Not that they, you know, should be, but pay some attention, I guess is what I'm saying. So this is when you, when you look at the potential for just a handful of things to create an outsized impact on a population, you know, a handful of lone wolf terrorist incidents. I mean Bin Laden talked about this, you know, well before 911 he was going to bankrupt America, right. Through using our own civil liberties. And you know, the freedoms caused us to kind of retract and do what we did, which was this, you know, multi decade effort against the war, the war on terror. So yeah, and again, the IRGC and the good sports and you know, all their proxies, they're not stupid, right? They know how to do this. But whether there's, you know, I don't have access to that intelligence, but I will say the, the FBI and other authorities in the States spend a massive amount of time focused on this very issue and they have gotten much better over the years. Right. We had some problems with siloed information leading up to 911 and some other Issues in terms of lack of human sources and different places. But they have gotten much better at the process of sharing intelligence from across the board. The state, the local, the federal authorities working with liaison partners overseas. So that part of it's the good news. But they just need to have success, you know, once or twice, a handful of times, to change the entire dynamic of a country.
- [52:06]
Ryan
And also, radicalization is a major problem, particularly within the Muslim community, because you're thinking there will be a lot of potentially young men who are looking to this and some young women who will get radicalized by certain preachers. We've seen it happen time and time in the uk and all of a sudden you have a portion of the population who are American born who suddenly become a threat to the country.
- [52:30]
Mike Baker
Yeah. Yeah. Well, again, yeah, When. When you have an incident. And it's. It's a really interesting dynamic, right? The way that social media has changed how we. How we process information. As soon as there's an incident, whether it's the. The Michigan synagogue attack or anything, suddenly everybody's a reporter, right? Everybody's a journalist. So they're on their phone and then you've got this segment of society that they'll see a. They'll see a name, right? Oh, look, that sounds. Sounds Middle Eastern. You know, I knew it. I just knew it. Right? And then they'll look and they'll say, oh, wait a minute, he was in the National Guard here in the U.S. wait a minute, he was born wherever in the States. What? And so it's a confusing dynamic, but it speaks to exactly what you're saying, which is you trying to identify these individuals is you need an element of luck. I never had a single operation in, in. In the agency that didn't have some element of luck when there was. There was success involved, right. At the point where you think, you know, you're just really good at it and you don't, you know, and you don't need luck, then you're kind of.
- [53:39]
Ryan
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- [55:04]
Francis
mike, one of the other things I want to ask you about is it seems inevitable to me that this will change very much the dynamic of the relationship between European countries, including our country, the UK and America. Because I'll be honest with you, I think from the European perspective, this kind of looks at this point, as we sit here talking a little bit like America and Israel went and did a thing and now they expect us to pay the price of that. And that's going to piss a lot of people off.
- [55:34]
Mike Baker
Yeah, well, it already has. So I was in London when President Trump was making those comments about Keir Starmer. You know, he's, he's not Winston Churchill. And, you know, we don't need anybody to come into the fight after we've already won. And, you know, as a, as a dual citizen in the US and uk, I found it offensive. And I, I didn't like that because I don't like, we shouldn't be talking that way about close allies, right, where we've got so much history. Right. And there's been disagreements in the past. That's true. So I thought not, not the best move. But then you step back and you go, well, what else do you expect? You know, you know what you're going to get from President Trump, which is in part why his base just loves him. Right. Because in a sense, he kind of talks like that.
- [56:26]
Francis
Right.
- [56:26]
Mike Baker
He feels like the guy next door. Right. In a way. And I think they, they like that. But it also leads to these messaging issues.
- [56:35]
Francis
And so my point is something else, though, which is while he was slagging off Keir Starmer, I was very happy with that because Keir Starmer.
- [56:44]
Mike Baker
Well, yeah, it depends on your politics.
- [56:46]
Francis
Keir Starmer is not Winston Churchill. And it's not really even about politics, actually. It's about reality. So both labor and conservative governments in our country, they've run down the military, they've run down our industrial base, they've run down our intelligence opera, they've run down almost everything that, that we need to make ourselves safe. And so when Marco Rubio or when President Trump comes over to Davos or to Munich and they tell Europeans, you need to up your game, I'm rooting for them when they say that. I think that's important. The point I'm making here is this isn't about talk anymore. This is about you went and caused Australia Hormuz to get closed. And we are the ones that suffer from that because we are the ones that import the gas, the oil, the fertilizer, etc. In a way that actually the United States is quite insulated from. I mean, you produce almost all your own energy, etc. We don't. And so having taken this action now, we in Europe and in the UK are supposed to suffer the economic consequences of the action. It's not about talk, it's about reality.
- [57:50]
Mike Baker
Well, the talk also is when, I guess my point being is when you slag somebody off and then you have to turn around and ask for their help. Yeah, that's, that's a messaging problem. Yeah, but, but the logistics side of it, you know, the actual, you know, real world impact is. Yeah, you're right. I mean, now, and I think that there's a lot of, there's a lot of Gulf states that feel that way. You know, what the hell, right. And we weren't happy with the Iranian regime, but you know, we kind of had this, this thing going, right. And now it's, it's appears to be somewhat up. So, and that kind of goes back to something we were talking about earlier. A scenario that you could have argued might have produced somewhat different results would have been to include some of your allies in the pre planning. Now, you know, there are some in the states who will say, well, that's that. You know, then you take away the element of surprise and they go, well, you're not talking to them about a specific targeting operation on a specific date and specific time. You're saying, look, we have to have these conversations because here's what we believe, here's what we think. Can we get some agreement? People don't agree, fine, you still have the same result, you go out and do it on your own. Right, But I think there probably could have been a way to do this. Right. And you know, there'll be again, I'm Always amazed at, you know, there's, there's a lot of folks who think, well, that's bullshit. We don't need anybody else. And President Trump has enunciated that pretty clearly you know, lately. But that's not true. We do need other people. Right. You can't draw the curtains around the US and say that we're isolationists. Right. I love that sort of thing. I would love to be in a world where you could be libertarian and isolationist and the wouldn't hit the fan. Right. On a regular basis. I think that'd be lovely. But that's not my experience anyway, from being overseas for a long period of time and some shit.
- [59:45]
Francis
Can you elaborate on this, Mike? Because there are a lot of people who have that view. Dave Smith is prominent proponent.
- [59:51]
Mike Baker
Dave, very smart guy.
- [59:52]
Francis
We've had him on the show. We had a great debate. You know, we don't agree with Dave, but he puts his arguments well. Why is that worldview not accurate in your opinion?
- [60:00]
Mike Baker
Because I guess it has to be based on your life experiences, right? My life experiences have been a lot of it. Being overseas in some fairly hostile environments where you see how people treat each other and sort of the worst sides of humanity. And I don't live in a world where I think we're so disconnected that we can just ignore everything else that happens around the world and somehow we're not going to be impacted. I'm a big believer in the fact that you do something over here, it's going to impact over here. The world's too goddamn small anymore. Right. And it worked one time, but a couple hundred years ago, Right. And now that's not how we're all so tied together. So that's, that's what I mean by that. I don't. My personal experience has been. It tells me that while it'd be lovely, you know, this is not a community of nations where everyone's got everybody else's best interests at heart. Right. And so that's.
- [61:08]
Ryan
That's.
- [61:09]
Mike Baker
But again, I get it. I get Dave and others who think that way. And, you know, if. If I felt that was the way the world worked, then I'd probably think that too. Right. Hey, great. But anyway, that's. That's where I. That's all I have to say about that.
- [61:23]
Francis
Well, that's not your experience. I get it. I mean, one of the points you make about the impact this happens here and then there's an impact over there is in terms of European and countries in the U.K. i mean, I don't know what's going to happen. Nobody does. But logically speaking, if the United States is not effectively acting like your ally anymore, talking about you, causing you problems, I mean, a logical solution for a lot of European countries would be to do a separate deal with Iran.
- [61:51]
Mike Baker
Yeah, yeah. Or logical deal is to, you know, kind of tighten that, that alliance, you know, within the EU and, and you know, say, okay, fine. And I think that was, you know, I agree. When, when, when Trump was talking about the lack of spending for NATO. Yeah, great, absolutely. You know, get on board. Right. Have a little more skin in the game. But again, I suppose, right. You, you could make an argument for, could the EU cut a deal with Iran? I don't know. I don't know that that would work. I'm just, I'm thinking through this out loud, but I would see where you could eventually get to that point if you get, you know, your ass kicked enough by what you thought was a tight ally. And, you know, so now look
- [62:50]
Francis
it,
- [62:50]
Mike Baker
you don't need to go any further than saying here we don't need you, we don't need anyone. And then over here, well, you know, we're going to need your support in opening the straight because look, you guys have a lot of skin in the game because this, you know, it's more important to you than it is to us. Well, we're the ones who created this problem. Right. The U.S. military. So I just think that that's where I come back around to saying sometimes, and it gets a bad name sometimes in the US among certain folks. Again, a lot of times people who think that, you know, it's, it's, it's the U.S. it's our way or no way. In the real world, you do need to think about coalition building. Right. You do need to think about marshaling your resources along with your allies for force multiplier purposes. That has more impact. I do think if we had thought this through and if we had worked a little harder on that idea that we probably wouldn't have had this issue. They still would have tried to blockade the strait, but we would have been on top of it. It wouldn't have been a reactive moment. Right. We would have been proactively dealing with it, not just us.
- [63:53]
Francis
Well, the attitude to Iran and you know, they're not thinking through what they are likely to do seems to me to be kind of replicated in Europe where you go, well, whatever you think about Keir Starmer or Macron or whoever, you have to understand their situation from their point of view. If you are the leader of a European country, you're looking down the barrel of a recession. People don't generally get reelected in the middle of a recession. If something goes bad in your country economically, you tend to get the blame and you tend to get voted out. So you're putting these people who are already in quite a weak position into a bind, then you're talking about them, then you're trying to pin the blame on them for something you did. You put all that together. I mean, you could be talking about a permanent fracturing of the alliance.
- [64:42]
Mike Baker
Yeah, I don't think it's going to go that far because again, I think the White House will do what they can to get out of this here relatively soon because they, they. Not because of that, but because of internal U. S. Political concerns. But there's also this thought that, okay, well, right now, you know, our EU Allies are saying, ah, they're not going to, you know, they're not going to take part. Maybe they'll do something appropriate, which I think was the phrase they used the other day, you know, take appropriate measures. Who knows what that means? But then I think there was some thinking in D.C. in Washington D.C. that, well, they'll come around once they realize how bad economically this could be for them, you know, and from the energy supply they'll come around. Right. And to the point of self preservation. Maybe they will because they look and go, all right, well better we go all in and help open the strait than face this problem with on the global energy markets and suddenly we're in a recession and now we're going to get kicked out. So they may do a calculation that says, all right, we don't like it and yes, we're, you know, we feel insulted, but maybe out of self preservation so that we don't completely get our ass handed to us in the next election, we'll go all in and help with the effort. Maybe that. So that may play a role in this. Again, coming back around to the idea that politics influences everything.
- [66:09]
Francis
And speaking of politics, one of the things we've seen obviously in this country, in the United States is there's been like incredible levels of support for the war from Trump's base.
- [66:19]
Mike Baker
Yes.
- [66:20]
Francis
Is that going to last if this drags on?
- [66:22]
Mike Baker
No, no, I won't. Because while his base is very supportive, there's you maybe take a knife and cut half of that out and say if this thing is a protracted conflict, you're going to lose half that base because they're not all in on that. And I don't, I just don't see the White House going all in on that. I think they, they, they're really looking at this stage of the game for some way out and they're gonna have to be careful because what does that do that gives the Iranians leverage, right? Then suddenly they read the, the, you know, the tea leaves and they say, okay, and here's our list of concessions that we want. And I think that's already happening. Whomever they're talking to, if they're talking to somebody, and that's a big question, right, because who's got the ability to cut a deal at this stage of the game? Again, Mushaba Khameneides, he hasn't been seen ever since he was named his successor. There's no evidence that he's copacetic. So who is it? I would argue it's not the, the speaker of the Parliament, Mohammed Khalifa, you know, he's, and he's not a, he's not a reformist. Right. So who are you trying to cut a deal with? The irgc. Right. They've got a new commander of the, of the IRGC after the whack, the last two head of the Quds Force. Maybe it's, there's not a lot of people out there that you could argue can carry out a deal that the various elements now of the Iranian leadership that exists would agree to. And maybe now they're at odds with each other right? Over. Do you have discussions? No, we don't want discussions. Do you cut a deal? Do you find some concessions? What are those concessions look like? So this is going to be very complicated, but I do think the White House is very keen to make that happen. For your. What you've described that support even from the base is not going to last if people start to think this thing's dragging on into the early summer.
- [68:35]
Ryan
Mike, pleasure as always to have you on the show. Final question. Really?
- [68:38]
Mike Baker
Do you mean that?
- [68:39]
Ryan
Yeah, of course. Yeah, of course. It's always great to chat. Final question is always the same. What's the one thing we're not talking about that we really should be?
- [68:48]
Mike Baker
I'll tell you what I think is, is going to sound odd, but I think it's Ukraine because for the past several weeks there's almost no headline right in the US it's particularly noticeable where we do seem to have adhd, right. So we can't focus on more than one thing. So you're hard pressed to know that there's something happening in that conflict and the ground's thawing, moving into the spring fighting season. And it looks like so far over the, you know, recent week, few days, that you're getting a start of what looks like a spring, maybe early summer offensive. It's still a major conflict causing major suffering and with the potential to really create problems for NATO, for the eu. Putin's showing no signs of backing off his demands. I don't think he sees any downside to continuing the effort. And yet because of the way information flows and how we're all like raccoons chasing the next shiny tinfoil ball, we've taken our eye off it and it's like it's not even happening. And so I think that's the one thing people need to kind of touch back in and say, oh, that's going on, Mike.
- [70:09]
Francis
And why is this still going on? Because President Trump repeatedly, you talk about not taking them literally. I mean, he said he'd end the war on day one. It's been a lot of days.
- [70:18]
Mike Baker
Yeah. And spend more than one day. I will say that, yeah, if I knew that, you know, I'd get myself one of those Nobel Peace Prizes, you know, if someone would just give me one. But I think that the, probably the problem there is Putin, again, doesn't see a downside to doing this. He still believes that. I think he can outlast the west, he can outlast Ukraine, he's got the manpower advantage. Right. But when you look at it, you think it's been all these years and you know, he's in a World War I scenario where they're trench fighting. It's remarkable. And it's remarkable also from a technology standpoint, how drone warfare has just completely changed the battlefield. We're seeing that played out now, obviously in the Iran conflict. But that is an absolutely fascinating part of that whole sad story.
- [71:10]
Francis
Mike, thanks for coming on. Head on over to triggerpod.co.uk where Mike is going to answer your questions.
- [71:17]
Ryan
Who do you see if there is anyone as a viable opposition leader replacement for the current regime that would be acceptable to the non radicalized populace?
- [71:51]
Mike Baker
Quick break. This surprised me. The most useful advice I get now doesn't come from experts, it comes from regular people on TikTok. What works, what doesn't. No filters. Download TikTok and see for yourself.