TRIGGERnometry: Venezuela Update with Francis Foster & Konstantin Kisin
Date: January 5, 2026
Overview
In this impromptu live episode, hosts Konstantin Kisin and Francis Foster discuss the dramatic and unprecedented U.S. operation in Venezuela, which led to the removal of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. Drawing on Foster's Venezuelan heritage, the hosts analyze the historical, economic, and geopolitical backstory, provide updates on the current situation, and debate the implications for Venezuela, the U.S., the West, and global power dynamics.
Main Theme
The episode dissects the fall of Maduro's regime, the motivations behind U.S. intervention, and the uncertain future for Venezuela and the international order, all with characteristic wit, skepticism, and depth.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Setting the Stage: Why Now?
- Introduction and Personal Connection (00:30)
- Konstantin notes how frequently countries with personal connections to the podcast face upheaval: "It's your turn, Francis. Congratulations, mate."
- Foster, Venezuelan-British, describes waking up to the news of Maduro’s capture as “surreal.”
“Venezuelans have been praying for [this] ever since basically Maduro got elected. But also before Maduro, in the time of Chavez.” (00:57, Francis)
2. Historical Context: From Chavez to Maduro
- The Promise and Failure of Chavez (02:19–07:46)
- Chavez was democratically elected in 1999, promising a left-wing populist revolution to fight inequality and corruption.
- Venezuela became a symbol for socialism, attracting the praise of Western progressives.
- Early successes in redistribution faded as corruption and authoritarianism spread, heavily influenced by Cuban involvement.
- Mass emigration, poverty, hyperinflation, and drastic decline in living standards followed.
"What Venezuela has become is...an absolute economic basket case." (06:49, Francis)
- Transition to Maduro (07:46–10:08)
- Upon Chavez’s death in 2013, Maduro—described as loyal but intellectually unimpressive—was named successor, not elected.
- Human rights abuses, repression, and economic collapse grew even more severe.
- Francis: “There’s a word in Spanish, Esperanza, which means hope...Venezuelans have been waiting a long, long, long time.”
3. Why Did the U.S. Intervene Now?
-
Not Just About Human Rights (10:08–11:28)
- Konstantin asserts the intervention was geopolitical, not humanitarian:
“This operation had nothing to do with the things you’re talking about...the reason this happened was that Venezuela was becoming a hostile force within America’s hemisphere.” (10:08)
- Venezuela’s alliances with China, Russia, Iran, and possible Hezbollah ties were key triggers.
- Konstantin asserts the intervention was geopolitical, not humanitarian:
-
Venezuela as a Geopolitical Pawn (11:28–14:04)
- Caracas's strategic location, massive oil reserves, and role as a drug-trafficking hub ("El Puente" for cocaine routes) made the country a major concern for U.S. security.
- Sabre-rattling over Guyanese territory following oil discoveries added to tensions.
4. The Oil Question: American Motives Examined
- Is This About Oil? (18:18–19:01)
- Debating accusations of a U.S. “oil grab,” Foster notes America doesn’t need Venezuelan oil, but wants to prevent China, Russia, and Iran from dominating the resources.
- Keeping oil prices low is strategically important for undermining adversaries.
5. How the U.S. Operation Unfolded
- A New Model of Intervention (20:48–25:41)
- Kisin praises Trump’s approach: “...an intervention with zero casualties by the Americans, where they effectively go in, extract the leader who they consider a problem and then leave.” (22:04)
- Foster recounts firsthand accounts from Caracas:
“On Friday night...he heard planes flying overhead...explosions...that was it.” (23:44)
- No civilian deaths reported; shock at the surgical nature of the operation.
- The Choice of Successor (25:41–29:32)
- U.S. did not install Corina Machado, the popular opposition leader, but Delsey Rodriguez—a Maduro ally, labeled a communist and daughter of a left-wing terrorist.
- Rumors abound Rodriguez cooperated with the Americans; she pledges to obey U.S. demands.
“She will do whatever the Americans want, she will do whatever they want.” (26:51, Francis)
6. Is This Real Change? Life in Post-Maduro Venezuela
- Under New Management? (27:18–32:24)
- Trump describes Venezuela as effectively a U.S. colony (not his literal words).
- Celebratory street scenes are from Venezuelan expats abroad; in-country, there's a strict lockdown enforced by former regime thugs, the colectivos.
- Most of Maduro’s power apparatus remains in place, uncertainty is high, and there are no immediate promises of democracy or free elections.
- “We don't know. There have been talks that Delsey Rodriguez is going to rule for a 90 day interim period....No one knows where this is going.” (30:40–32:24, Francis)
7. Maduro’s Fate and the Significance for Venezuela
- Where is Maduro? (32:24–35:18)
- Taken to the U.S. and charged with drug trafficking; pleaded not guilty.
- Foster: Removing the head is not the same as fixing the system.
"If you think...just because Maduro and his wife have left Venezuela that the problem has been solved, tragic as it is, that simply isn't the case." (35:18)
- Maduro’s wife—seen as “the brains of the operation”—is hated even more than him in Venezuela.
8. Can a U.S.-Approved Regime Change Hold?
- Will Rodriguez Turn? (36:23–37:56)
- Discussion of Latin American precedents where U.S.-imposed leaders later become adversaries.
- Foster points out Trump’s unpredictability is a deterrent:
“Trump’s great strength is his unpredictability...Would you want to play games? Or...want to stay alive...probably this isn't the guy to mess around with.”
9. Western Response & Global Power Shift
- Reactions in the UK, US & Beyond (37:56–43:23)
- Wide variance in media and political reactions, from hand-wringing over international law to full-throated support.
- The “international rules-based system” is declared dead; might makes right again.
- The UK and Europe are now irrelevant in global affairs:
“We have signed the declaration of our own complete irrelevance." (48:46, Francis)
10. Reflections: Realism, Power, and the Reckoning for the West
-
Philosophy of Power (43:23–48:46)
- Longstanding Western illusions about peace, international law, and irrelevance of armies are shattered.
- Kisin: “You wanted a multipolar world. Now all the great powers are going to do what they want...”
-
A Wake-Up Call (48:46–52:45)
- The hosts urge Europe and the UK to adapt to a harsher world.
- “President Trump is effectively recognizing that reality through his behavior.”
- Trump’s actions in Iran and Venezuela demonstrate a willingness to enforce U.S. interests without drawn-out wars.
-
Why Venezuela? (52:45–54:24)
- Its geography and resources make it too strategically important for the U.S. to ignore.
- The U.S. reportedly offered Maduro a safe exit; he refused, leading to forcible removal.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On the mood in Venezuela:
“Venezuelans have been waiting a long, long, long time. In fact, many of them have actually given up hope that Maduro and his ilk were actually going to be gone.”
— Francis Foster (09:43) -
On the nature of U.S. intervention:
“President Trump is single handedly showing you don’t have to...launch...costly trillion dollar wars to deal with specific problems.”
— Konstantin Kisin (22:04)“The way that Delta Force carried this operation out, it was absolutely masterful.”
— Francis Foster (23:36) -
On new leadership:
“What people actually think...is she doesn’t have the respect of the army....So he’s put in place, effectively, Maduro’s one of Maduro’s hench people....She will do whatever the Americans want.”
— Francis Foster (25:55–26:51) -
On Western hypocrisy:
“It really doesn’t matter. What we’re seeing now...is the old order has now changed. This idea of international law...That’s done, it’s gone.”
— Francis Foster (39:13) -
On the new world order:
"We are in a new world. And we've reverted back...to the pre-World War II order, where it was about strength, it was about power."
— Francis Foster (43:29) -
Summary statement:
“President Trump...has given a massive smackdown to anybody who thought that this is their time to challenge American dominance.”
— Konstantin Kisin (52:45)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Maduro’s removal: initial reactions – 00:30–01:36
- Venezuela’s history: Chavez and Maduro – 02:19–10:08
- Why the U.S. intervened – 10:08–14:04
- Oil question and American motives – 18:18–20:48
- Operation’s execution and immediate aftermath – 22:04–25:41
- Appointment of Rodriguez and transition – 25:41–30:40
- Current situation on the ground – 27:18–32:24
- Maduro & wife, significance – 32:24–35:18
- Can regime change work? – 36:23–37:56
- Western, UK, and European responses – 37:56–43:29
- Philosophical reflections on power – 43:23–50:38
- Lessons for the West – 48:46–52:45
- Why Venezuela, what next – 52:45–54:54
Conclusion
The hosts describe this episode as a reckoning—not just for Venezuela, but for the West, whose decades-long complacency has been shattered by recent global events and America's new assertiveness under Trump. While the people of Venezuela may at last see the fall of Maduro, the future is fraught with uncertainty, as U.S. intervention leaves both hope and fear in its wake.
For further updates, the hosts promised more live discussions as the situation develops, urging listeners to stay informed—and, as ever, to watch TRIGGERnometry as “the world goes down the proverbial plug hole.”