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- [00:01]
A
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- [01:43]
B
Over recent days, there's been much debate in British politics about the future of Nigel Farage's Reform Party, cemented by the defection of Robert Jenerick, the Conservative Shadow Secretary of State for justice and Shadow Lord Chancellor. The who was pushed by Tory leader Kemi Badenok as he was about to jump ship. Reform is developing a reputation for moving to the centre. Jenrick followed in the footsteps of a number of senior or formerly senior Conservatives, including Nadeem Zahawi, Nadine Dorris, Jake Berry and others. As a curious aside, the last time I saw Jake Barry was on Question Time when he challenged me on my criticism of Net Zero to explain that net zero is the solution, not the problem. We have to let go some of our obsessions like Net zero and so on, and we will find out if the government's prepared to do that. Okay, man there in the glasses.
- [02:29]
C
Just to pick up on what Constantine said, you are so wrong. We do not deliver a growing northern economy by turning our back on Net zero. The north of England this county, this region is a global leader in green technology. We deliver a better levelled up north of England by having green collar, highly paid, secure jobs for people who live in this region. Net zero is the solution, not the problem.
- [02:57]
B
I think it's good for your voters to hear that. I'm sure Servitor Party voters will be pleased but the program was recorded as Nadeem Zahavi was in the process of being sacked as Conservative Party chairman because he'd failed to declare that HMRC was in the middle of an investigation into his personal tax affairs and when he was appointed to various ministerial positions. This anecdote alone gives you a flavour of the sort of concerns many have raised about the increasing torrification of reform. Last night it was confirmed that another mp, Andrew Rosendel, had defected to Reform, bringing the number of Reform MPs to seven, of whom more than half are now Tory defectors Lee Anderson, Danny Kruger, Robert Jenrick and Andrew Rosendale himself. The worry for many is is that as Conservative refugees become more numerous than native reformers within the party, the center of gravity will shift away from reform's radical agenda towards the very policies and personalities they so thoroughly rejected at the last election. Reform's defiant position against the failed status quo was what won them their legion of supporters. Now some feel they're cozying up to it. Personnel is policy, after all. And having forced out tough talking right wingers like Rupert Lowe and Ben Habib, Reform appears to be going slightly vegan. It's rare for me to be accused of naive optimism, but in this instance I do not actually share these concerns for a number of reasons, which we'll come to shortly. But first, and much more importantly, we have to recognize that reform has no choice but to continue salvaging what they can from the rotting carcass of the Conservative Party. Why? Because Britain is not America. Our electoral system does not allow a charismatic leader with a small band of acolytes to to storm to power in the way that President Trump did with just J.D. vance, RFK Jr. Elon Musk, Tulsi Gabbard and Vivek Ramaswamy at his side to become Prime Minister. Nigel Farage has to have 650 men and women stand as candidates in constituencies across the country and more than half of them to actually be elected. Even now, when much of the public is fed up with the status quo and Keir Starmer enjoying the lowest favorability ratings in history, having a reform rosette pinned on you will not guarantee victory in a specific constituency, especially to an Unknown, politically inexperienced candidate. Once elected, that MP will be faced with the reality that standing as an MP is almost the exact opposite of being an mp. A political campaign is about making speeches, knocking on doors and selling yourself to the public. But once the sale is made, your constituents need you to solve their problems. Making witty comebacks on TV requires an entirely different skill set to filling potholes. And metaphorical potholes are no small matter, nor one to worry about once the election is in the bag. The only way reform can succeed as a political project is to win the war of the next election and then win the peace by actually delivering both locally and nationally. Which brings us to the final reason why reform has no choice. If elected, the biggest challenge they face is turning the sinking oil tanker that is Britain around. This will require an understanding of how the machinery of government works, something that can only come from experience of being in government. Many recent defectors are being described as Tory failures. And in a sense, this is fair and correct. The Tories failed. But what the public do not know is that the Tories failed despite many of their ministers being talented and brilliant people. This is not a joke, it's a tragedy. Having met a number of the people who would be at the very top of your list of incompetent, self serving, unprincipled, slithering creatures, I can tell you the tragedy is that most of them are none of those things. Many were good, capable people trying their best within a party that had lost its way, dealing with an openly rebellious civil service and operating within the suffocating straitjacket of powerful Blairite legislation which curbed their ability to actually govern the country. Put simply, you need Tory failures to avoid reform failing in the same way. This was, of course, what President Trump and his team learned from his first term in office. They spent four years trying to do things and being obstructed at every turn. It was only on his triumphant return to office that the Trump administration has been able to actually implement their agenda. This explains part of my lack of acute concern about this trend within reform. This was always going to happen. Indeed, by the time of the next election, I expect the entire Tory right to have switched to reform, with up to 60 Reform candidates being current Conservative MPs. But the other reason for my optimism is that ultimately, the direction of a political party is set at the top. Nigel Farage, his immensely impressive great Cardinal James Orr and the rest of the leadership cadre are no wet. As long as they're in charge, reform will remain radical in the healthy sense of the word. They're not extremists, which is a strength, not a weakness. The very online world rewards the hotness of one's takes, but electoral politics in Britain rewards a strong, clear eyed focus on the silent majority who are tired of economic stagnation, illegal immigration, rising crime and crumbling infrastructure. The public are angry and they are frustrated, but they aren't extremists, nor will they tolerate extremism. For every vote won by posting unworkable demands on Twitter, there are five to be lost in the country at large. Many activists and commentators feel that the next election is the last opportunity to turn things around. I agree. However, urgency requires more pragmatism, not less. Whether you're a centrist like me or an ardent right winger, the recognition of this reality more must force you towards realism. Reform is the only party capable of winning the next election. Purity spiraling about how they are not right wing enough will only make the outcomes you want less likely. We're drinking at the Last Chance Saloon. Drink responsibly. If you enjoy these videos, remember they're available in his articles on my substack days. Weeks, sometimes months ahead of time. So head on over there now and subscribe. The news doesn't just tell you what's happening you it so often tells you what to think is happening. And these days the biggest red flag isn't what's said, it's what gets left out. That's why I use Ground News. It's the only site and app that compares coverage from across the political spectrum and highlights which stories are being ignored entirely. See for yourself at Ground News. Trigonometry, the Blind Spot feed is one of my favorite features. It surfaces around 20 stories a day that are being overlooked by either the left or the right. It's a simple but powerful way to track media bias in real time. Like this NIH scientists recently published a declaration criticizing Trump's cuts to public health research. That's a major move and yet only 2% of the coverage came from right leaning outlets. A new study found that 2024 saw the most armed conflicts globally since 1946. A staggering statistics, but you would have missed it if you'd only read left wing news sources. Ground News gives you the full picture headlines, ownership, bias, ratings and context so you can actually understand what's going on, not just react to what you're told. Head to Ground News trigonometry for 40% off their unlimited Vantage plan, the same one we use, and start thinking for yourself.