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Sa.
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Ladies and gentlemen, what you are about to hear may be amazing, but it
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is not financial advice.
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It is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this discussion should be considered
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investment advice or the offering of any
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security or other investment product. Please consult your own investment and tax advisors. And now I'll hand it over to the True north team for your regularly scheduled programming.
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Whoo. Welcome back, True North. Episode 63 the Investment Grade Bitcoin Podcast man, here we are. Everything is happening again. The world is moving incredibly fast. I feel like every time I go to sleep, I wake up and it's six months past where I was previously, whether that be thought or news or everything happening in the world. And we have got a great show for you tonight. We've got a lot to talk about, obviously, a lot of news in the global macro markets and a lot of emphasis talking about digital credit and bitcoin backed financial instruments. So for those of you that are new here, we talk about Bitcoin, we talk about securitization of bitcoin, we talk about instruments, we talk about portfolio theory, macroeconomics, and we try to unpack everything that's going on and we're at the forefront of what's happening in this market. So this is episode 63. We've been doing this for quite a while. I went back and I did some research and we could talk about some of the stats in a bit. But our second episode was on October 30th and here we are 63 episodes later. So about a year and a half we've been cooking on this and a lot has changed and a lot has evolved and super happy to be here on the show today. We got Neithu Soleil, we've got Mason, we've got Grain of Salt and we've got Dan, Hillary and we're going to go through it. On the agenda, does STRC have a speed limit? We'll talk about the capital that's coming in the door on strc. We'll talk about capital structure, how that, how to think about that. We'll kind of unpack it a little bit. Capital flows, what's happening in the broader capital markets and. Yeah, and just general capital markets. So maybe I'll kick it off and kick it over to you guys and, and just see what you're thinking about and we'll go from there. Well, we'll start with Soleil. What's the main topic on your head right now?
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The.
D
The whole world outside of bitcoin is like in crippling depression. There Nobody wants to have babies. And I'm just over here like, the world is great and getting better because just the, like, the optimism that bitcoin and everything built on bitcoin does for me, I, I, it's two completely different worlds. I'm just, I'm just grateful to be on this side of the, the space.
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Hell, yeah. Absolutely optimistic. Yeah. It's a strange world we're living in and people ask me how I'm doing. I was like, yeah, I'm doing just, just fine, actually. Thank you. Over you, Dan. Obviously a lot going on. What's going on with Buck Tokenization? What are you thinking about?
B
Yeah, the stretch. Stretch price behavior has been super interesting and I've been tracking that closely. I made a little video this week. There's an exciting kind of development or exciting insights, I think, when looking at pre market, postmarket and during market trading. Volume and percentage above 100. And there's clearly some big accounts. I know you've been interacting with them, Jeff. A bunch that are starting to latch on to stretch. And the stretch of success has definitely awoken a kind of a beast on the Internet. Who's ready to declare it a Ponzi in and take it down with their, with their, whatever you call it, their banter.
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So it's funny.
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Excited to dispel that.
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Yeah, it's this too good to be true, right? It's like, oh, what's the catch? It's too good to be true. It's like, well, unpack it. Well, we've actually been talking about this for 60 episodes, so if you, if you want to know what's going on, like, we've got 60 episodes of talking about what these instruments are and, you know, how they're constructed and how they work and thinking through it. The real catch, though, is that Fiat dollars have been compounding annually against you for at 6.7% for the last 50 years in a row. The catch isn't digital credit. The catch is fiat. That's the problem. And this is an interesting alternative. Nobody's ever seen an interesting alternative before, and it's breaking people's brains. People don't like when the fabric of their reality is torn apart. It's hard. It's hard to conceptualize. You have to rethink your entire life. Nobody wants to go rethink their childhood and how they learned what they learned and rethink their entire world. And that's happening with everybody in real time with AI and these new instruments that are hitting the market. We are seeing a pace of innovation in the world and capital markets that we have literally never seen before. So it's hard, hard for people to conceptualize. Mike, over to you.
C
Hey look I, I think that, you know what you said Soleil is, is right. There's a lot of doom and gloom going on. The crazy part is the S P500 retook its all time high today. This is, this is like the quickest we talk about it as a V shaped recovery. This is like the fastest V shape recovery ever. And I'm, I'm seeing posts from people like I don't like that it recovered this fast. I'm like did. I didn't say this. Did you buy the dip? I guess not. Right. And so you know, trade the market you have, not the one you want. And so what am I thinking about? This is a couple things. Strategy will hit a million bitcoins sometime in September. Is that number important? Doesn't really matter. People Understand it's a seven digit number. 2017 Bitcoin started at a thousand dollars and Tom Lee, a fun strat said it can hit 10,000. 10x it almost hit 20,000. So what's the shelling point? A million bitcoin for strategy. Why? It's an easy number. It's an easy number narrative to remember. The other easy narrative is that on Monday by my projection Strategy will break 800,000 bitcoins 80% of the way there.
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Yep.
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Right. And strc. Awesome. We'll talk more about that. So I think that when you look at what's going on, you have this. The biggest buyer of bitcoin is strategy. And they do it publicly and they tell us, they give us a breakdown of how they buy it and the average price, right.
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SEC filings, everything.
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You could go read the AKs, you could do whatever you want. You can do analysis. So I can't wait to talk about that. So what do I see? I think the, I think that whatever's going to happen in the straight of Hormuz will get resolved. Oil prices will eventually drop and we'll get a new Fed chair. I saw the caval with, with you know, the U.S. attorneys going to the Fed to try and you know, cause problems for Powell today. But the reality is the guy's out in two months or a month, whatever it is. And, and the new guy is going to get confirmed. So what do I think? Do I think that we do I think that we're going to get a rate cut? I don't know. The odds are no. But if we get a rate Cut. What I can tell you is that the asset holders will get rich and the people that own, own assets will get screwed.
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Yeah, it's even further separation and I'm kind of seeing it with like the, these intelligence tools right now too. Like these people that are using them are moving like light speed forward and they're the people that aren't, are not. And a big, big separation at the moment. Mason, over to you.
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Yeah, I mean the obvious story this week is, is the massive volume on stretch. But I, I noticed something that I think went a little bit under the radar and that's asst. Jeff, I'm not sure how much you can talk about this, but so, so prior to this week that the M. Nav was below 1 and it ripped up to 1.2, you know, in a few trading days. And I think this is extremely bullish for bitcoin and I, I think it's bullish because I think ASST. Is going to be like a higher beta. It's going to move faster and harder, you know, even than, than mstr. And I, I think, I think kind of what's happening is the market is beginning to recognize number one, I think Bitcoin is going into a, a bullish regime going, going forward here. I think Sailor was pretty clear on the bankless interview that bitcoin is, is oversold. He didn't talk a lot, a lot about the, the kind of, the, the situation the government finds itself with refinancing. Josh Mann talked a little bit about that. Dan, maybe after this you can, you can speak on that because I think you had some great commentary there. But I think the market is, is beginning to recognize, you know, the opportunity. And I, I think it kind of reminded me from in 2023 when MSTR was trading at a discount and then it, it went up to one, kind of hovered around one dip below and then it finally got a bid. And what's even more interesting here is, is asst has a amplification ratio of over 40. I think it's 43.5. Right. So at some point you would expect that to be priced in. And for the oppor. Opportunistic traders who are kind of seeing this, this mispricing, I, I think they might be stepping in and that's why we're seeing the price action that we are seeing. So that, that was really interesting to see from a kind of forward looking bitcoin price perspective.
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Yeah, if, if you think about, you know, the way I kind of see these instruments is expressions of the underlying Bitcoin asset, right? If you've got this fixed amount of volatility within the underlying price of Bitcoin and you chop off all of the volatility on the low volatility instrument, that excess volatility has got to go somewhere, right? It sits on the common stock. That excess volatility sits on the common stock. So thinking about amplification ratio, the relative size, right. Like we're, we're a different size than Strategy. There's a few different components that I guess control that expression of the common stock. It's very interesting dynamics. Yeah, we, we've been watching them very closely. It's been very fun to, very fun to watch. Let's jump into actually some, the, some statistics because I think this is a good segue. And Dan, you guys feel free to pop in at any point, but we've got an STRC ATM tracker on our website as well. This is on the Tools true north tnorth.com Tools you could click in here. This is one of the many dashboards that we're continuously building. We will have several more of these in the near future and we are cooking at a pace that I didn't even know was humanly possible. So super excited about this. Obviously, STRC exit dividend date was today. So you had to own the instrument yesterday in order to get the dividend. The price of the instrument went from $100 down to $99.20, which is less than the actual dividend that was paid on the instrument. So I think that's a bullish signal that there's people coming in to buy the dip on the bottom of the instrument as well. But a couple things to point out. So this week we've got three different views here. You can look at the conservative, moderate or calibrated view based on the trading volume above 100 over the. Over the two days this week, Monday and Tuesday. If you took the same relative proportion of volume that Strategy was able to capitalize on last week, they're roughly around 25, 118 bitcoin to be purchased by Strategy this week as a result of the ATM on the STRC instrument over last week. Right? Last week. Huge week. Huge monumental week last week. We can look at the. This is the 8k filing here that you can see on the screen. Strategy raised $1 billion on STRC. Massive. Like this is massive volume. Like just try to wrap your head around a billion dollars, right? That's a thousand million. They raised 1,000 million dollars last week on one instrument with the click of A button. No additional employees. Their treasury team is the same size. Maybe they've got a couple more people than they had, you know, two years ago, but they need no additional people to bring this capital in the door. And they're taking the risk on this instrument, on the capital.
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One quick point with this and guess what? They don't have to build a new factory. You know, somebody asked a question about miners and what they have to do. They don't have to exert any capital infrastructure. They're not buying real estate, they're not leasing real estate. They're not buying a million square foot factory. They're not building a stadium or a building. They just bought this and they put it into storage with their custodians and, and they don't really do anything but hold them and sell str. I mean, they do STRC and MSTR and, and the prefs and the converts, but they don't have to go expend any capital purchases to go do this. I don't think people are realizing how clean this is.
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So clean. It's so elegantly, it's so simple and so elegant. People think it must be wrong.
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Yeah.
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Products they can't sell.
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Yeah. The other part about this is that the speed to acquire this is, I don't know. Look, they, they do the stretch. ATMs, I think they buy within 24 to 48 hours. If you want to go buy a billion dollars with real estate, you have to negotiate it, you have to do your due diligence, you have to close on it, move everything. Best case scenario, maybe 30 days. That's like if everything went right, more likely you're talking 60, 90 days out.
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How many billion, how many billion dollar properties are in the market right now?
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There's probably a lot and they're probably not worth much.
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Are there a lot like, I don't
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think there's a lot like billion dollar property. The new J.P. morgan building was like 2 billion and it's one of the biggest in Manhattan.
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So for sale, we'd have to look that up. The point that I'm getting is that the speed that they can do this is, is they can acquire a billion dollars easily in 48 hours to 72 hours, which is impossible in almost any other industry.
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Any other capital. Any other capital, industry, form of capital. Right. A billion dollars. And you wanted human capital. It's like, what are you going to do? Go higher? Like, how many people are going to go higher? Like 100,000 people?
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Like no, Jeff, I had just for my own, you Know purposes. I googled. What does billion dollars look like? Like I, I've seen it before, but I had to do it this week and it's pretty substantial if you want to throw it up. Like what does a billion dollars look like? It's.
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Yeah, yeah.
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Is it like visually it's striking.
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Is it like it's palace?
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Stack of bills, pallets of hundred dollar bills.
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Second, we got it up. Oh yeah, here we go. What does $1 billion look like? Yeah. Wait, where'd it go? This isn't right. What does a billion dollars in bills look like? Yeah, that's in a hundred dollar bills. Yes, that's in a hundred dollar bills. Yeah, it's a lot. It's like, it's something crazy. It's like stacked up to, it's like stacked up to the moon or something like that, right? I think, I think dollar, single dollar bills. It's like stacked up to the moon. Like a billion single dollar bills is. It's just crazy. It's a stupid amount of money. Let's, let's shift gears here because one of these, one of the components here, and this kind of gets us into the first topics like what is the STRC speed limit? Right? Because one big obvious thing that a lot of people pointed out here last week, STRC strategy raised a billion dollars. This was the only instrument that was active in the entire capital market on the strategy balance sheet. Very calm, very. The most common feedback was zero mstr common stock raised. Now this had the bears fired up, this had the bulls fired up. Everybody was moving in both directions like, oh, it's unsustainable. There's never going to be demand for this product and now there's demand for the product. And oh, now that the demand is going to be too high and there's going to be too much demand for the product. And the reality is these instruments are hitting different capital pools that have never been hit before. They are bringing in different capital at different points in time when different parts of the capital markets are open. So I don't know how many people caught this, but Michael Saylor actually updated his pinned tweet on Twitter. So let's go through it here. This is just, this is just last week. Bitcoin is. One global consensus is that bitcoin is digital capital. The four year cycle is dead. Price is now driven by capital flows. We'll hit on that bank and digital credit will determine bitcoin's growth trajectory. The biggest risk is bad ideas driving iatrogenic protocol changes. I had to look that word up, that was a complex one for me, but I wanted to hit on this. Price is now driven by capital flows. And we saw it last week and I pulled together some modeling here on, on capital flows. Oh, shoot. Where'd it go? Give me one second here and pull it up. I did some modeling on capital flows and one of the biggest, one of the biggest things I found this last week was it was a very low, it was a very low week in terms of demand for equity. Oh, here it is. I put it in Excel. That's why. Check it out. Okay, you guys see this? Okay, so this is trading volume last week. I've not updated it for this week at all. So obviously this week we got S&P 500 and all equities are flying. Everything's flying through the roof, but the highlighted bars on these graphs that you can see. So this is outlining S&P 500, QQQ, NASDAQ 100 Total Stock Market Index, Russell 2000, and then a software ETF. One thing that you can notice right away. So this is like some of the biggest markets, right? These are some of the biggest ETFs in the market. Very indicative of where capital is flowing and what the general capital flow feels like in the entire market, right? We're talking the total Stock market index. It's a pretty, a pretty good indicator. Now one thing that's interesting, if you look at all the highlighted bars, last week's volume was below average for the last 30 days. And it was significantly below average across every sector in the entire market. Surprisingly, this was actually one of the lowest volume weeks since like August of 2020 for, for the equity markets last week. So there was very little capital flow into the equity markets. Almost like the entire market had the clutch pushed in, right? Everything going on with Iran, everything changing in the, in the capital markets. Everybody's just trying to figure out what's what, who's who, what does all of this mean? And that's my opinion. Now the one, the one difference here is you look at this on the bottom left, IGV. This is the software ETF. The software ETF experienced above average volumes for the last 30 days. Now if you go look at what happened in the software ETF last week, the software ETF got nuked. It was down 7 or 8% in the last week. And there was big volume. So there's big sell side volume in the software ETF. MSTR makes up 2% of IGV, the software ETF. So while the rest of the market While the capital in the rest of the market was relatively low. It's just low volume, just rel. Like everybody's got the clutch pushed in. There was agnostic sell side pressure from the software etf. That's, that's people that are selling MSTR because they don't even know they hold it. They're just selling the software ETF because they're seeing how AI is just obliterating the whole world. So that, that was interesting to see to tie it all together now when I tried to pull it together. So this is showing, you know, several other ETFs and I know this is probably really hard to see on the screen, but on the left hand side maybe you could zoom in. On the left hand side there's a bunch of different funds and these represent different things. Right. So you got MAG7, US equity, fixed income, energy, different healthcare sectors, international precious metals, et cetera. So I wanted to cover all of them. Every single sector and MAG7 stock experienced below average volume last week. Every single one of them. And except STRC, STRC had 118% greater volume than average last week. So what is this showing? This is showing there's countercyclical demand in the capital markets. Sometimes there's. Credit markets may be enthusiastic in risk off regimes, equity markets may be enthusiastic in risk on regimes. There's going to be different points in time where different capital flows will come into the market and strategy has graduated. They used to be so small, almost didn't even matter. Like equity capital was coming in the door and it was flowing super fast. They're like just piling it in. Right. Sell the shares, piling the capital. But now they have graduated back to Saylor's tweet. Bitcoin is one global consensus is. Bitcoin is digital capital price is now driven by capital flows. That's what he's talking about. This is a function of capital flows. How are the capital flows flowing into the market? The instruments are there, the balance sheets are created. The infrastructure is there to catch the demand on any side of the coin when it's coming in the door.
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Can I make a quick point?
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Hop in there?
C
Yeah. So a couple of things. Would you just show and please correct me, would you show me. Was it compared to itself that compared to each instrument's 30 day average stretch was, was 118%. It's hard to read.
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Of average? Yeah, 100 average.
C
And all the other ones were less than 100% compared to themselves?
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Yes.
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Correct.
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Okay. The other interesting part is stretch has now Become big enough. And I think we're going to see, you know, next week when they, when the shares that they ATM did, I think what, let's say stretch is what, $7 billion now or six, six and
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a half, six, six billion.
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So it'll, it'll, they'll add at least another billion dollars next week. Okay. If not more. So it'll become big enough where it begins to make sense. And the fact that the daily volume is so high and it's becoming big enough is really important. The fact that these other, these other companies is Tesla number.
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What's number two?
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Tesla.
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Tesla was number two. ASX3IGV.
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And so you look at these other ones, I mean you can normalize it for the size, but eventually this is where, when Saylor talks about capital flows, stretch, I think again, what's a big round number? When Stretch is $10 billion and is trading, you know, a billion dollars plus a day, it's big enough where the big guys could come in and get involved in it. It's that simple.
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Yeah. I mean, think about today, right? Even today the volume was down ex dividend day, but the volume is still $300 million. That's $300 million of the stretch instrument today. So if you wanted to get out, like there's still liquidity and people did. Right. Like the price dropped. There were people that were selling knowing that they got the dividend on the horizon. Seems like a crazy.
C
Yeah, but, but, but this is where the, this is where the market's big enough because again, as the price goes down, the deal, the yield dynamically goes up. That's the way bond math works. I did not invent bond math. So as the price goes down, you're like, what do you mean strategy changes their yield? No, they're buying in now at a lower price to arb the difference from $99.30 and back up to 100 bucks that, that 70 cents they're arbing now. Does that make a difference in my life? No. But I don't have a billion dollars or a hundred million dollars to throw at this on a daily basis. There are other hedge funds that do that. It's not saying this doesn't exist, but that's what they're doing because they know it's going to run back up to 100. The max price is going to be a hundred dollars and one cent.
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Probably.
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Yeah. And it's a, it's a time value of money question. Right. Because obviously, you know, with fiat, it goes down in value over long periods. Of time. That's why we use discounted cash flow analysis to look at the value of future cash flows into the future. Yada, yada, yada. Well, the value of the stretch dividend paid this month is roughly 90. It's like 95 cents for your 100 strc share. And so obviously today the price of stretch fell by less than that. So it only fell to, you know, $99.30. So what you made by purchasing at 100 yesterday, the day before the ex dividend date, holding overnight and then selling on the market open today, was that 30 cent or it's technically a 25 cent delta. So if you annualize out 25 cents for 12 hours across the entire year on your share, then the APY on that trade is like very, very, very high. I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but that's the idea that these guys are doing. Since there's more buyers and sellers in the stretch market, in aggregate, you're able to create to do an overnight trade on the ex dividend date that's still highly profitable. And so as an investor, it would be.
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You gotta love AI Dan, when you said this, I ran the math. I ran it. So a what? This is for a 1% gain in one day.
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If you need to do 25.25.
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I did it for 252 days. I didn't do it for 365.
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Okay, no, no, no, no. He's talking like 12 bips. Like 12 bips for.
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Okay, well it doesn't matter. I'll rerun it. It's 12, 27%. I'll write, I'll see.
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So do. It's 25 bips for 12 hours. So it would be effectively. Yeah, 25 bips for 12 hours. So it's 50 bips for 24. So 50 bips times 365.
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Okay, 50 bips times it's 252 because
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the trading days,
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but it's annualized. It doesn't matter if it's ready day.
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So anyway, it's not much work. Like what you're pointing out is. It's like you're not putting in much work for.
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But it's not about work. Right? It's about time. It's like a time based thing. Yeah, right, exactly. It's like a free. It's an. It's a risk free arbitrage essentially.
C
Okay, so it's right because there's more
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buyers and sellers in the market.
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You know what it does? You know what, Dan? It's it's a 251 return.
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That's it.
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That's it. It's 200. And, and that's, and, and that's at, that's at like you said, that's 50 bips.
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Yeah, got it.
C
Okay, so 251 return, that's virtually almost kind of like risk free.
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Again, this is why I love these instruments so much. Because you know those people are there, right? And because you know those people that are there, there's people that are taking the other side of that. They're like, great. I know those people are going to be there. I'm going to front run my dividend that I'm going to get paid in the next month because I'm managing my cash position. You know, I want cash, I want the digital credit instruments, I want the bitcoin. I want all the stuff. And people can front run it. Right? You can front run your dividend knowing that you're going to get paid it in 15 days and you know, you could buy the dip and increase your effective yield. Like that's, that's one way to play it. Right? Another way to play it. Go ahead.
B
Exactly. The same token applies because if you enter at the, whatever the $99.30 today and you ride it to par over the course of 5 days, 6 days, 7 days, 10 trading days that it's historically been taking, then the time value of that essentially yield you just collected is very high once again. So it all comes back to this fact that the prices of STRC are showing that on every single day, even on the ex dividend day, there's still more buyers and sellers in the market because these inefficiencies exist.
E
Jeff, can I, can I hop in here on the, the capital flows topic?
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Yeah, yeah.
E
So I, I was watching Jordy Visser this weekend and, and he pointed out that the fed funds rate is about to cross below cpi. So CPI is obviously going up because the trader for Moose Oil's going up and he thinks we're in a inflationary regime and he pointed out that this, this regime where real yields are going negative is where bitcoin has its best returns. But he didn't mention anything about Stretch or, or SATA, of course, but they're, they're incredibly linked. Like if, if real yields are negative, capital is going to migrate towards anything that offers a positive real yield or at least it's, it's, it's going to be pushed out onto the risk curve. It's going to start looking for, for other homes. So And I don't, I don't think it's an accident that the past two weeks or so the, the volume has been incredibly high. I think it's, it's a layering of many things including just track record and it's, it's popularity growing. But I, I do believe there are macro dynamics like underlying some of the flows at least.
A
Yeah, you would think so, right? But again. Well, you're right. There's so many variables, right? There's, there's large capital that could be interested in, the trade that's looking to risk off. There's, you know, front running of interest rates, environment change potentially. There are so many, so many different pools of capital that would be interested in this. And you think about the TAM, right? It's a, you know, 200, 200 to 400 trillion dollar TAM. Potentially a billion dollars is like on the scale of it is just not that much relative. You're talking how much is a billion? Like how much is a trillion? A trillion is a thousand billions. Like people, like humans can't conceptualize that. That's like, and then you talk 200 trillion. Like the numbers are hard, they're hard to conceptualize, super hard to fathom. And the relativity is just so small on a relative basis.
E
Yeah, I think that's a great point. That even Bitcoin itself is a relatively tiny asset class. So having billions into stretch on the margin isn't surprising at this point. But yeah, I guess what's interesting here is, and you already said it, there's going to be many different reasons people come into this instrument. And ultimately we, we won't know, you know, what the majority of those reasons are, but we can take guesses.
A
Yeah. Continue to see cracks in the, in the credit markets, you know, in several different places. The real question is like, what is credit again? What is credit? What am I, what am I underwriting? And this concept of underwriting credit based on future cash flows makes me uncomfortable. I am pushing these AI tools to the absolute limit. And I feel like I've multiplied myself by like 6 or 7. It is insane. The productivity gain I've gotten from these things is insane. And I just, I think the fabric of the world that we know, it is going to change so much in like five to 10 years that the way that businesses work is going to be completely different. The way they interact with capital is going to be completely different. The way they interact with money is going to be completely different. Humanity is experiencing this like once in a, once in a century. I don't know, probably more than that. This productivity gain that is capable right
E
now,
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it is completely so hard to fathom. I get anxiety every night if I don't kick off, you know, a project on, on the AIs before I go to bed. You know, that's, that's kind of where we're kind of where we're at. So. Strange, strange place to be.
C
So. So, Jeff, people are having a hard time coming to grips with the money printer goes six and a half percent per year. Let's just say it's from 2000. And that, let's just say inflation is 3.5%. You add those two numbers together because there are two different things. One is monetary debasement and one is based upon the supply chain. So if, if the supply of oil gets constrained, then the price of oil shoots up. That's a supply chain problem. Straight up. Hormuz. It wasn't that the money printer. If oil was 60 bucks and it goes to 120, they didn't double the amount of money overnight. There's, there was a supply shock. And that rep, that represents first through the derivatives market. So if you take the 6.5 plus 3.5%, you don't even AI for this. That's 10%. 10% means the price of goods. The price of a house will double a hard asset in 7.2 years. You're like, what witchcraft did you just use? I'm not even talking about AI Any person go ask a boomer. I'm not a boomer, okay. I'm Gen X. You go ask a 60 or 70 year old person, what's the rule of 72? Oh, that's how long it takes for something to double in value. It works also for money, right? Your house doubled in value. Or you could say your buying power gets cut in half because it takes twice as much money to buy the same thing. And people are like, Jeff, what you're doing with AI is awesome. But I'm still trying to get people to say Bitcoin's not going up in price. It just takes you more money to buy the same bitcoin. Right? And we talk about this and like, oh, you're playing semantic games. No, we're not. That's the. You started off with this and then we start talking about some, we're going to talk about some really complex stuff. STRC and MSTR and amplification rate and bitcoin gain versus Bitcoin yield. I did a space for an hour and 15 minutes about this today.
A
Yeah, yeah.
C
And we're doing some really. If I do the complex stuff, people
A
be like, yeah, so grain. I think there's one big point and it was a, you've got monetary inflation. M2 money supply is increasing at six and a half percent. Now you've got CPI. Well, what does CPI represent? It's the consumer price index. So it's like what is the cost of goods? And that's going up at three and a half percent. So that's the headline number that the government puts out towards you. It's like, oh, the inflation is two and a half, three and a half percent to make you feel better. Well no, the reality is that there's 6.7% more dollars every single year. And there has been the last 50 years in a row. The delta between the two is technological advancements. And that's what's being taken from you. That's being taken from you. You feel okay because the consumer price index is going three and a half percent but the actual money supply is going up 6.7%.
C
I'll make a really good example about this. I am so old that in 2005 I bought a plasma TV, 42 inch plasma for a sub $1,000. Because originally they were 10 grand. Okay? So I buy this all excited to get it. Now you go buy whatever 65 inch OLED or whatever fancy LCD, TF, whatever it is, you go buy one of those for 250 bucks for 65 inches, right? You're like oh wow, that's technology is phenomenally deflationary. And then after I go to, after I go get this at this at Costco, I don't get that hot dog for a dollar fifty. I walk over to five guys and I get a frickin bacon cheeseburger with a fries and a diet Coke. And they're like, that'll be $18. I'm like like what? And I'm there with a buddy, okay, that'll be $38. And we're like, for what? For two burgers, one fries and two drinks. And they're like, yeah. I'm like, do people complain? Oh yeah. And so that one's inflation, one is technology change. You have the TV that just goes down in price. Is that awesome that you get this great TV for 250? Yeah. But you go out to dinner and you're like what the hell just happened? And it's not that I don't have a money problem. I'm just like, I remember like I don't know, three years ago, that was like $10. It doubled in price.
A
It's so crazy. I mean, my wife went to Ace Hardware this week and picked up some nuts and screws for this piece of furniture that we had to rebuild. $40 for 12 screws. I. I was. I, like, almost flipped the table. I was like, what are you talking about, $40? I thought it was gonna be like, $44. You know, go get your 12 screws for $4. I was just, like, completely blown away. It's like, it. I can't believe this is happening. Yeah, go ahead.
C
Yeah, so, I mean, look, so we can go talk. I. I think I have a whole bunch of charts like, we could talk about. Stretch, I've got some. Some great charts I can show you guys on tables, if that, if that, if that's helpful.
A
I. I want to hit the bears over the head with balance sheet math real quick.
C
Okay, go do that. And then I'll show some really cool charts that I put in the place.
A
Yeah, just. Just because, you know, we hit on this every week. And I've updated this to include asst. Because I think the. The data is interesting to put them side by side. Okay, so here we go. We've got, as of today, 4 15, 20, 26 strategy. Bitcoin held 780,000 Bitcoin price 74,600 MSTR. Price 144 assets. $58 billion of assets, 2.2 and a half. 2.2 billion in USD reserve, 8.2 billion in debt, 11 billion in preferred stock. And so net capital, if you take the assets less the debt, they've got $52 billion of net capital sitting on the balance sheet. Annual dividend payment is 1.2 billion. So they've got 44 years of coverage on the net capital. On the balance sheet. They have a 10% leverage ratio. In order for the value of the assets to be less than the debt on the balance sheet, the price of Bitcoin needs to go down to $10,570, which is an 86% decline in the value of the balance sheet. I think that's an incredibly unlikely scenario. I think everybody on this screen would be selling everything they could in their house to buy bitcoin at down to that price, assuming nothing else has changed. And I put asst. Next to it, because the other digital credit issuer in the market just to show the relative balance sheets, because I think they're fascinating. One of the primary differences, obviously, we have a lot less bitcoin. We've got 13,767. But the balance sheet math is still the same. The relative difference here is we have a much lower debt number on our balance sheet. We have $10 million in debt. Our leverage ratio using these assumptions is 1%. So in order for the value of our balance sheet, in order for the value of our balance sheet to be worth less than the debt on our balance sheet, the price of Bitcoin would have to go to $726. That'd be a 99% decline from where it is today. So I think it's a relative, it's helpful to put them together because the risk profiles are different. I think that's the fundamental thing trying to convey to people is like the risk profiles of these two instruments are different, but they're not exactly the same because the construction of the balance sheet is different. There's convertible debt, there's different sizes of convertible debt with different maturity dates, different balance sheet construction. We've got cash and STRC on our balance sheet. They just have cash on their balance sheet. They're slightly different. And those attract different capital pools. Mstr, the common stock attracts large capital like equity markets. STRC is attracting a different capital pool than our instrument is attracting. They may be more like speculative investment grade. We may be more like high yields, speculative high yield investors or different types of capital pools. And our common stock is, you know, we just broke into top 2000 publicly traded equities and that's a, that's a different pool of capital that's interested in those types of instruments than mstr. So like thinking about the environment and how it's evolving, having multiple issuers in this space are tapping different capital markets at different points in time when there are different flows in the market that are happening. So yeah, it's a lot going on. And then the next thing I wanted to hit on before we could switch gears over to you, grain here is just like, where have we come? Right? So this is episode 63. Our second episode that we did was October 30, 2024. And I just wanted to walk through this because these stats are ridiculous. So looking at the MSTR balance sheet strategy in October 30th 24th held 252,000 Bitcoin. They now hold 780,000. So it's increased 210%. The Bitcoin price is relatively flat. It's only up 8%. The balance sheet value has increased 235%. It's gone from 17 billion to 58 billion. Think about that for a moment. Like think about how big a billion dollars is. Think about how big. $58 billion is. The share price. The MSDR share price is down $84. It's down 37%. If you liked it at 10:30, it looks pretty freaking interesting here on April 15th at $145, the. Yes, the share count is increased. Like I even put it on here. I'm transparent. The strategy is transparent. They're filing 8Ks. They were selling tickets to the show. There's 61% more tickets. But guess what? There's 210% more. Bitcoin strategy has accumulated 994 Bitcoin per day for the last 532 days in a row. Their balance sheet has increased in capital size by $76 million per day per day for the last 532 days in a row. That is insane. This is. This is a behemoth. This is going to be the biggest and largest balance sheet on the planet. Get your tickets to the show. This is going to break people's brains because it can scale larger as they get larger. They can issue more capital as it gets larger. It can be larger, it can hold more energy. And I'm just super freaking pumped to be here.
D
So it looks like they increased their bitcoin by triple and they only had to increase their outstanding shares by about 55%. 55, 60%.
A
That's correct.
D
That's some pretty effective leverage, in my opinion.
A
And the trading volumes have increased. The trading volumes are going higher. And that kind of comes back to one of these questions, really is, you know, what is the strc? What is the STRC speed limit? I got an email with a question this weekend walking through, like, how can, how can this be supported? Right? Like, how can we experience a day where STRC brings in a billion dollars and they don't raise any capital on MSDR atm. Is that, is that, is that likely to happen more in the future? What is the scale of that? Look, like, what if they issue $20 billion of MST STRC? Like, what, what does that speed limit look like? I mean, have you guys thought about this? What are you. What are you thinking about? I know, Dan, you've probably put a lot of effort and energy into thinking through it.
B
Yeah, happy to jump in here. I know we talked about this internally as well. I take a pretty. I think there's two factors. There's two moving pieces. They have an amplification ratio target, and that amplification ratio is a function of the collateral on their balance sheet. Their outstanding liabilities based on their Liquidation preference. They're not really liabilities. And the price of bitcoin. Right. The price of bitcoin affects their total capital assets. So the amplification ratio will go down if the price of bitcoin goes up. Because generally strategies, deleveraging and converts have fixed values. Right. So if the price of bitcoin goes up, the amplification ratio goes down, vice versa. The same thing is true. And during this whole bear market cycle, we've seen strategy actually issue common atm. And the reason being is they've been deleveraging their balance sheet so the amplification ratio didn't creep up too high and jeopardize the credit quality of their senior assets. That being the press and the converts. So what is the limit here? Well, if bitcoin starts to go up aggressively, then the amplification ratio goes down. They can issue more serc. So that's like one limit. That's the limit if they don't issue any more common. But generally, if bitcoin's going up, the common tends to trade at a premium. If the common trades at a premium, even a slight premium, they're able to expand their collateral balance sheet, providing more room for STRC issuance. So I think, the way I think about it is if there's any premium in the common equity, there's no limit to the amount of STRC issuance that they can issue once the common equity, if the common equity trades at book value or below, then there may be capital constraints sometime in the future. If the implication ratio is hit and the price of bitcoin doesn't go up because they can't expend their collateral, they can't expand their collateral balance sheet.
A
Yeah. In my mind, it's also incredibly important just thinking about the marketplace, right? Like, what does the marketplace look like if there's a period in time where strategies got the clutch pushed in because the STRC is printing and maybe equity markets just not really doing much. Well, it's okay. What does the rest of the market look like? Who else is in the market issuing? Who else in the market is buying bitcoin? No matter what, you have to underwrite the entire market. And then you think about the scale too. It's like, okay, what is the scale of the capital coming in the door? Every bitcoin that MSTR buys is like resetting the floor price of bitcoin. It's pushing the floor higher and higher and higher. These are bitcoin that are held, that are never being sold ever. If you've got these OGs that sold 100,000 Bitcoin, they're out, they're gone. They can only sell once. So as that number pushes higher and they get a larger proportion of the network, they're consistently raising the price floor. Then you think about, okay, capital coming in the door. A billion, five, $10 billion of capital. That's got to move the market cap of bitcoin higher. It has to. You've got a scarce asset with a supply that's asymptotically approaching zero.
C
Did you just say asymptotically?
A
Asymptotically, yeah.
C
Go ahead, keep on going.
A
It's asymptotically approaching zero. Sailor said it and I'm like, yeah, that's that. It's like instant math nerd. You know, like, I see it, right? I see it in my mind. It's like that's what it is. It's approaching the asymptotes, like always approaching zero, but never quite hits it.
B
So go ahead.
E
Jeff. One thing I, I've been thinking about and I started thinking about this on Monday, I believe, so Sailor had the bankless interview where he very clearly stated, bitcoin is oversold. It's going to be higher by the end of the year. And then also on Monday, we had the, they. We had their, their buys announced and it was purely stretch, no common atm. And you know, if you're in management to, to a certain extent, you are going to an expressive view through your actions. And if you do believe that, that bitcoin is, at least this is how I see it, if you do believe bitcoin is oversold, then you're going to want to crank up the amplification down here. If you think we're, we're heading back up because as, as bitcoin rises, your amplification lowers. But you would also assume that the ATM or that the M Nav floor would expand as well as maybe there's more interest, more flows. And I, I think as a manager, you want to have the a, the, the M Nav go as high as
A
possible
E
before using it because it, if it goes, you know, the higher it goes, the, it becomes increasingly efficient or the, you know, the accretive dilution becomes increasingly efficient at 2M NAV versus 1.2. So I, I think there's a really a balancing act here that does require, you know, maybe some form of timing where you, you want to build your amplification as a, A bull run starts, right? I don't think you want to be de. Amplified. I think they want to have a consistent amplification. But I, I think you also want to be wary of, of letting the M Nav grow. And I, I think they might want the M Nav to grow outside of just the efficiency side. Like, I'm sure Sailor would like to post a chart of, of his stock performance versus Nvidia and, and the rest and, and also hopefully reward the common shareholder. And I, I think that will, that will come at some point and, and maybe it'll be at a low mnav and bitcoin will just be really high.
A
It's hard to conceptualize yet. You ever go to. Go to like, a carnival and like, you. You see those games or you drop a quarter and it like goes spin, spin and spins around a thing into the middle, and that's like the singularity moment. I feel like this is a black hole and we're spinning around the drain, and then eventually there's going to be a moment. It all falls through to a bitcoin, a little bit more of a bitcoin world. And I think you raised some great points there, Mason. There's so many things to think about. It's like, well, what makes the credit investors happy? Can I sell more credit if I utilize MSTR more and build my balance sheet? And like, strategy's got a different. They've got a different. They've got a difficult task to grow. You know, a 50, $60 billion balance sheet. You think about, okay, if the price of bitcoin doubles goes to 150k, they're. They get deleveraged by 15% and they got to go sell $15 billion. I don't know the exact number, but I think it's about $15 billion in order to keep the amplification ratio the same. Well, you're looking at the performance the last couple weeks, I would say that's probably not going to be an issue now. At what point does that become a little bit more of an issue? I'm max bullish. I've got a significant portion of my personal net worth in SDR still. I'm still incredibly max bullish. But to me, I'm looking 10 years out at this thing and this corporate balance sheet and thinking about, like, how equities are priced. And I think there's going to be mispricing in the common stock, like, in both directions. It's going to. There's probably going to be high M Nav, there's going to be low M Nav periods, and capitalizing on the high M Nav periods to build the balance sheet to issue more credit like that is the, that is the game. Like, I could see a world where five, I don't know, eight to 10 years from now, there's a trillion or $2 trillion of digital credit that's issued. Like that is, that is reasonable. Like, this will be the biggest balance sheet on the planet and it will be like potentially an order of magnitude higher than any other balance sheet on the planet. Is that company worth what? Is the company with the biggest balance sheet on the planet with a new form of credit that the world's never seen before? What is that worth?
E
The company with all the money is the richest company, right?
A
It's the most valuable. Like, we can't conceptualize it because it's never happened before. Like the, the maybe the best like, parallel is like Dutch East India Trading Company like the very first stock ever created in Amsterdam. Like that, that may be a, like the only potential parallel at some point. But that's not even.
E
Jeff, can I.
A
Go ahead.
E
Can I suggest pivoting? Hey, Dan, you were, you were pretty excited about Josh Mann's tweet. Do you want to, do you want to walk us through the scenario that, that, that he suggested? And, and this really got me thinking. And, and I think Josh is right. But do you want to do that?
B
Sure. Mason?
A
Yeah.
B
You know, I'm the biggest Josh fan pretty much in this entire group. I love Josh. I think he's the absolute man and his insights are very, very keen. And he's seen, you know, market cycles the way he was a trader at Solomon Brothers. He's seen market cycles in the way most of us haven't in our lifetimes, other than grain of salt.
E
But
B
his tweet today was specifically one. He was talking about the likelihood that Walsh comes in and lowers rates because puppet master Trump effectively forces his hand and he does that. That goes back to what Mason was saying about CPI being above the fed funds rate and that likely continuing. This is what is known as financial repression. And it was how the US grew themselves out of the debt after World War II. For the next 20, 30 year period of time, real rates would actually destroy your purchasing power if you just held short term bonds or even long term bonds. This is kind of the premise of QE as well. But so what Josh is saying is if rates come down, then the cash reserve that's held on MSTR's balance sheet. So rates come down. STRC, let's say the credit spread stays the same. Rates get cut in half. SDRC now yields 9% or 8%. Then there's now more than two years of dividend payments sitting in the cash reserve on Strategy's balance sheet. And so they could use theoretically a portion of the cash reserve to buy more Bitcoin in this environment, which likely Bitcoin would be running because they don't need as much cash to service the annualized dividend payments because the rates have all compressed. I thought it was an interesting, I don't think this actually makes a material difference in terms of Bitcoin per share, but it's an interesting thought experiment moving forward. And it goes to show you that having a variable interest rate instrument on your balance sheet as the outstanding type of liability, it's like having a floating rate mortgage on your home. In a falling interest rate environment, you don't want to have a fixed rate mortgage. In a falling interest rate environment, you want to have a variable rate mortgage. That's exactly what STRC is for these Bitcoin treasury companies.
A
Yeah, I mean this is, this is institutional grade capital management. Like this is, this is what, this is what all like my brain instantly goes to insurance, of course, but this is like what all insurance companies do. Like depending on interest rate environments. If interest rate environments are low, they're taking out different capital, they're moving cash reserves, they're buying different assets. It's all a function of how capital flow. Everything's cyclical. Everything is cyclical. They go in way like capital goes in waves and it goes in different directions at different points in time and different interest rate environments and there's like political regimes and everything's moving in different directions. But I mean there's the two biggest things is you could drop your cost of capital potentially if the interest rates drop or, or demand goes through the roof. Like they don't necessarily have to reduce the, reduce the interest rate. It's like, well it's, they'll probably wait and see what happens. Like if, if fed funds drops 25 bips, I don't know that they're going to drop the STRC interest rate 25 bips right away.
E
That's, that's true. And I, I think that's a great point because it, I think, I think when you listen to Saylor like he, he wants to provide a product that's going to be inflation. I, I, I think he's explicitly said that. Right. And, and if he believes inflation is 7 to 10, 10% and it's not necessarily like they don't, they don't, you know, the, the difference between eleven and A half and let's say eight. Like, sure, it, it's something. But if bitcoin is doubling in that time period and it's continuing, you know, the, the higher rate is, is adding more demand and is, is able to fuel the, the amplification in a period in which bitcoin is running. I think that's probably the most important thing is, is keeping the gas on the pedal as bitcoin is, is continuing to run. So they, they might like.
A
It could go off, dude. It could be electric. It could just be like a capital explosion to the upside. The, the thing I'm trying to wrap my head around just in this, in this circumstance is like what do the other press do? They're all fixed, right? So like the other preps are going to be the signal of the risk, like the like strife and stride and like they're, they're going to be the risk signal. But then you can have this like really odd scenario, right? If, if, if the price of strife rips and the effective yield drops, you can have this, this period of time where like the strife effective Yield could be seven. Stretch could be like 11 and a half and stride could be. Stride could theoretically be. It wouldn't be lower than stretch. It shouldn't trade lower than stretch. But theoretically that's probably when demand would come in for like stride and strike and you know, all these other instruments when, when that capital regime changes.
C
So, so, so Jeff, what you're saying right there, and, and, and we learned a lot about this, Dan and I learned this in the option market is that for each expiration date and each strike price, and Soleil knows this also, each expiration date and strike price is its own little pricing ecosystem, but they're all priced on the same asset. So when you go look to buy something, right, if you think that you're buying an out of the money call, you want to buy it on a price where the stock price went down, but that may be reflected differently by the market maker for different dates, expiration dates, and at different strikes. And you're like, oh no, it should all be symmetrical. It should all be proportional. No, it isn't. And what we're saying here, what you're saying here about stretch versus stride versus strike, it's like, well, if you look at these, you know where they are on the capital stack, you know what the fixed percentages that they're paying, but they trade at different prices in different dynamic yields, right? And the dynamic yield is there's a fixed dividend percent that he pays but if the price drops, the dynamic yield goes up. And so you have some of these weird pricings where people keep on saying, why is it like that? I'm like, because it's supply and demand for each of these individual instruments. And it's a little. The markets can be irrational sometimes. There could be mispricings and it could look like that. And you know, so with that said, I, I think that we, people just have to look at that. Everything is not proportional or symmetrical or it should be this way. It just happens. S P500 retook its all time high. Dow Jones did not retake its all time high.
A
That's because Mag7. Mag7 rips.
C
Mag7 ripped higher makes up 32 of it. It's like, why buy the other 493 if Mag7 makes up all the ones that rip higher? Forget the other 493 stocks. I'm not saying that they're bad. I'm just saying that that's what ripped higher. So that's where we are. And the market could be like this in short term and long term. Yeah, but I want to go. Can I go through some of the metrics that I had on STRC or
A
real, real quick, real quick. Intermission sharing my screen. The bitcoin conference is happening in a couple weeks. April 28th. We are having a True north event in Vegas. Go check it out. Is on our website under events. It is the True north networking event. We have sold 50 tickets so far. There are 50 tickets remaining. If you want to nerd out about this stuff and come hang out and talk about digital credit and where all this stuff is going and talk with the other people that are at the forefront of what's the analytics and people thinking about this industry. Come join us in Vegas. You don't even need to go to the bitcoin event. You could just come to our event if you wanted to and yeah, come hang out. Look forward to seeing everybody there. We also are having an event in Oregon for anybody that may be located in the Pacific Northwest or California wants to come join this. We're doing a bitcoin for business event. The tickets are $20. It's just let us know that you're going to be there and we are going to talk about just bitcoin. We're going to talk about just like what's happening in the bitcoin market, what companies are doing with bitcoin and we're going to talk about digital credit and how corporations, any type of company can start to Rethink money. And I think it'll be a great event and look forward to having people there. If you've got people that are maybe on the fence about bitcoin and want to think about these new credit instruments, I think this is exactly the audience we're trying to hit. It's at an elevated space and we'll have some networking. It'll be a good time. So tell your friends and look forward to seeing anybody else there. But now back over to you, Grant. Go ahead. Let's jump into it.
C
Okay. By the way, if you pay for that event, you get free drinks, right?
A
Yeah.
C
What about. Are we also serving food?
A
I don't think there will be any food there, I think.
C
But at least, at least for the 100 bucks that, you know, that's equivalent of like four drinks in Vegas. Unless you.
B
Yes, yeah.
C
Unless you want to lose 500 at the crap table and then get one drink for free. So anyway, I'm gonna go through some quick things here. Let me see if I could share this correctly. Share. Select tab to share. Cancel now. I want to share desktop.
A
In the meantime. Dan, did you see that? There's 1380 call options open interest outstanding on STRC at 105. Shout out to the guy with $13 million of STRC that sold 1380 call options at 105 to juice the yield of your. Your portfolio. It's a savage move.
B
Yes, savage move. But I think the people buying them, it's kind of an interesting trade. Right, because you can create a put with them. You can gamma trade them. You can like buying the 105 call.
A
Buying the 105 call.
B
Yeah. I mean someone's. I mean the dealer probably sold it to them and then hedged it out. Yeah, but I mean hedging it out is effectively like gamma trading it. But I just still think there's going to be like a market for calls above 100. I know people like. It's very contrarian, but like let's say, let's say a 101 strike STRC call costs one penny. You probably buy that because like, because there's a. There's a world in which strategy for some reason doesn't. Can't hit the demand with enough ATM because they hit their amplification ratio. Like the scenario I would think of is like bitcoin nukes, but stretch demand goes up so they hit their amplification ratio like intraday or something like that, and they just like can't go beyond that and, or intra month. Excuse me. And so Then the price of STRC ratchets up to 102. And if you bought the 101 strike at a penny, in that scenario, if the stretch price went to 102, I mean, you made 100x so. So I think it's kind of cool thinking about it. Like there are kind of, there are trades there.
A
Yeah. Yeah, go ahead.
D
Yeah, I was thinking about two scenarios like that as well. Like could they let it go above 101 to justify lowering the dividend number one, or could they let it run up to 101 ahead of ex dividend date? So if it does drop a dollar, they're still smashing the ATM at a hundred because it never drops below par. So two of those reasons I think we might see. You know, they could just put up a cell wallet at 100 like they've been doing, or maybe let the thing run up a little bit.
A
Yeah, let it run. If you let it run, you still have this scenario of like selling and cutting people at their knees. Like if they think they're going to get 101 for it and you get, you give them 100, 100 for it. Like it's, it's just a difficult dynamic. It's easier to keep it as simple as possible and like pegged around 100. But just, there's so many dynamics. I encourage anybody to just like think about them. The. And if, if you really care, reach out to whoever your options provider is and ask for different strikes. Because I, I think there should be $1 strikes between 95 and 100 and 100 and 105 and it would, it would be the most electric options market on the most boring instrument of all time. Like I think the 99 strike would be. And eventually it'd probably be 9950 strike and 9925 strike. But that $99 strike would probably be the most traded instrument in the entire market. Like everybody's going to be betting around how much stretch drops after the dividend dates. And there's arbitrage with how many days left are on the contract and how many days after or before the ex dividend date. There's just like infinite number of games that you could play. And then you could do them relative to other instruments too. Like you could do strc, SATA, options market. Not only do you have these options market arbs, but you have the R between the price and the dividend. And when they get paid out, just like a whole new playing field of games can be created and designed in this just like relatively simple little ecosystem.
B
Any daily explorations about the volume surface.
A
What's that?
B
If I was Jeff Park, I'd say something about the volume surface.
A
I would be curious to get his ideas. Maybe I'll reach out to him, see what he does.
C
He'll be in Vegas. Yeah, he'll be there. So look, I think that. I think you're right, Jeff. I think that you have predicted what will happen in the option market six months from now or one year from now. I mean, the time frame is debatable, but this will become available. Why wouldn't we want to trade something that moves one penny on a hundred dollars and, and will. Can they make a market for it? It's not a $1 stock. It's one penny on $100 stock. It's one bit. Do I think our market maker will figure out can we make money at this?
A
Probably. Absolutely. Absolutely.
C
I think so.
A
There is absolutely money to be made in both directions and we're going to learn, we are going to learn so much so fast with these things. It is going to be insane. And again, just thinking about where we were when we started this strategy wasn't even reporting bitcoin buys every week. They were reporting bitcoin buys every quarter. When we started this, they were reporting bitcoin buys every quarter. And now they're doing it every week. So many things have changed. The perpetual preferred equities didn't exist. We were just flabbergasted with convertible bonds. We were wrapping our heads around it. Now we're in this really unique moment of time where it's kind of quiet. This storm is brewing. Bitcoin seems like it's found a bottom.
E
Isn't bitcoin the same price though it is October 2024 till now?
A
Yeah, it's about the same price. Yeah.
C
Yeah. So let me, let me, let me show you some. Yeah. Now that I figured how to make this work. So this is. I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this. So one of the things that we do here is we. This is structured data. We take a look at and I'll zoom in on this to make it easier to read this. So if you look here on this table and I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this. This is done in chronological order. Q3, 2020 strategy buys, 38, 300 bitcoins. The price of bitcoin is here and so forth. What's important to understand is that they really did not tell us the basic shares out. They only told this to us yearly prior to 2024. So you're like, how come I don't have the quarterly numbers? They just didn't don't have that information. It's not. And I've asked about nothing nefarious, it's just that things changed. So this chart, if you look here, it goes all the way over. So not only do I look at bitcoin quarter over, quarter over quarter gain, bitcoin per share, so forth. Then I look at the green section is basic shares outstanding, share growth. And then on the very end over here we have the different M Navs that it trades at what the calculated M Nav is. And then when I go down to the bottom, I made all these different scenarios. I wrote an article on this. I don't want to spend a lot of time with this. So this is not done with AI. This is old fashioned, you know, Mike putting this all into a spreadsheet, rows and columns, thinking about how to do it. And then I do my scenarios and after this then I paste this into AI and say, am I correct? Am I wrong? Is a scenario cool. So then what I thought would be interesting is I did this. So then I thought, okay, so now let's make, let's make the information simpler. So then I did, I looked at quarter over quarter. So then I did this. Originally I did this. What was the net gain of bitcoin? And I was like, okay, great, I did this. But what, what resonates with people, it's not about me having a zillion spreadsheets. You know, what do I think people are going to get? And I'm like, oh, they're gonna get rank. And what's rank? I'll blow this up a little bit more so it's easier to see green. Why don't you just go to the,
A
why don't you go, go to the T North website that's got this on the T North website.
C
I should go to the T North website and it's there. And, and well, because I'm going to show more detailed stuff that's not there. But I, I can go. So all this information, the other Dan built this and it was awesome. So this information is there and I want you guys to see the genesis of how I created something, ran through AI and we got it. So now what do you think is going to happen is Q2 20, 26 is a quarter, quarter to date. And if strategy comes out with, with 21000 bitcoins this quarter, which we're only really two weeks into it, with two ATMs, it's going to be the sixth best quarter ever. And it's only two ATMs into it of the first month of the quarter. Holy crap.
A
That.
C
That's kind of crazy. So that's the rank. And I was like, okay, this is kind of cool. So then looked at this. So then we said, hey, let's look at strc. And people are like, how is this changing the amplification? So then I. I do the information different ways. And this is showing whether it's. Initially it was 100% strc back in November, but these were really, really small. This was whatever, 26 million and 130 million. But then what happened in Q2, it went to 75 strc and only 24. And then 100 strc and 0 mstr. And then the blended average, the. The weight, sorry, the weighted average is 41. So that's showing it as a table. And then I graphed it. Okay, but let's keep on going. So then, where are we today? So then Sailor makes this comment and he says, oh, Sailor says, let's talk about BTC gain. Now, BTC yield is the increase of bitcoin per share. But he didn't say that. He said BTC gain. And I'm like, oh, crap. Based upon the rankings, what he just said, and I posted this, I'm like, well, we should rank all the quarters based upon best BTC gain. And so what happened is, is the fourth quarter, 2024 was the best quarter in terms of buying Bitcoin. 195,000. And this I needed to get the share count, which is no problem to get. And the BTC gain was 116,000 bitcoin that were gained, accounting for all the shares, all the dilution and everything. It had not acquired any cash. And I was like, okay, that. That's pretty cool. Now if you look at what's in sixth place is Q4, 2025, it was negative bitcoin. And you're like, wait a second. Negative bitcoin? That's freaking horrible. Why was it negative? Because they didn't buy bitcoin. They used. They did buy some Bitcoin, but $2.25 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 was held in cash. So the BTC gain there was actually negative. Now where we are today is Q2, 2026 in terms of buying Bitcoin. It's now the 12th highest out of 20 out of 25 quarters. It's the 12th highest. And we're only really two ATMs into it. Okay. The crazy part is if you look at it on BTC gain, it's in sixth place. And we know we're going to have a monster quarter, sorry, a monster announcement on Monday. So the BTC gain, it's probably going to jump up, I would say it's going to jump up somewhere like in second place. So why do I, why do we do this analysis? Because when somebody says when the price of bitcoin drops by 50% and strategy will not be able to access the capital markets, not only is he able to, to go to the capital markets, okay, he's able to do it very efficiently when the, when the price is low. He's able to acquire the most bitcoin most efficiently when the M Nav is the highest. Right? Right. And the price is the highest for common shares. But overall, if you look at the company, this is when they had the best BTC gain is fourth quarter, 2024. So that's the benchmark that I compare against. The last thing is we get this question all the time, is the recipe. And this is, this is the hardest part. I'll make it bigger and then I'll wrap up on my, my little discussion here. If you, if you look at it, they don't control the price of bitcoin, but what do they do? Control? How much is strc, how much is mstr? They control those two. That's what we're saying. How much, how much STRC are they going to use versus MSTR in the next atm? I think it's probably going to be a hundred percent because they want that amplification ratio. They, it can go up now. Right. And as the price of bitcoin goes, goes up, the amplification ratio drops. That's why the BTC price is in there. Then the other thing is how much cash are they going to, how much cash do they need? Well, they got whatever 21 months worth of cash here. So the question is, is they have all these levers to pull. They're going to decide how much STRC to issue, how much MSTR to issue, how much cash do they need. Right. Because they have to pay out the dividend yield. And so with that, and the other variable is the price of bitcoin. If the price of bitcoin goes up, the amplification ratio goes down. If the price of bitcoin goes down, the amplification amplification ratio goes up. And as Dan Hillary said, in that scenario they'd probably want to issue more MSTR So I'm trying to make this as simple as possible, but there's a lot of moving parts. And it's not that we can't analyze it. It's not that I, I can make any chart or any graph and I can do this, but what Saylor is trying to do is they're trying to look at all these pieces and not, they're not always proportional and they're not always symmetrical. And so I'll take any questions on this, but I think when you look at the ranking, I think the ranking for me was the most interesting part because I think it's one of the easiest things to understand.
A
It's a big quarter.
C
It is.
A
It's a big quarter. The relativity is way larger, but the, the capital on the balance sheet is significantly larger. It's a, it was a big quarter. Big on BTC gain because it was 100 with the STRC ATM so far. Yeah, yeah.
C
And, and so the other crazy part is the top five quarters made up 62 and a half percent of all of strategies acquisitions of bitcoin. And if you look here, this is the end price of bitcoin in that quarter. And people are like, well, if the price of bitcoin goes up strategy, it's harder for them to buy bitcoin. That is counterintuitive and completely incorrect with the data. And they're like grain. You're some loudmouth boomer. First of all, I'm not a boomer. I'm a gen X. And the data does not back up what people say.
A
But it's just, it's just so like, it's honestly, it's so simple. As they get bigger, their ability to acquire more bitcoin becomes easier. That's as simple as that. Water is wet. Water is wet. As they get bigger, they can acquire more.
D
What I heard you say is that stretch is helping them acquire bitcoin with the efficiency of a Chick Fil a drive thru. It's just next. Next.
A
Roll them through. Yeah.
D
Even in a bear market, like, the efficiency is insane right now.
C
Yeah. So by the way, Chick Fil A or five guys when you go there. So how do they make it faster through the drive thru? They stick two people out there in a uniform with a little iPad and little stylus and they take your order and they walk from car to car because they don't wait for you to even get to the little microphone. It's efficiency. And Jeff, you showed the comparison between strategy and strive just before this. You showed. I didn't show it. And you used all the same metrics. And it comes down to efficiency. And people are like, how do I make a car more efficient? Do I make the gas engine better and better and better? No diminishing return sets in. What do I do? I stick electric motor and I make it a hybrid. Oh, wow. And that started 25. And that's what Saylor did with the rocket ship with the three different buckets.
A
It's just, it's just simple. It's elegant. It's like, this is a very elegant capital structure. And it's so simple, it hurts people's brains. Like, how the, the craziest thing is, like, you think about the balance sheet in the construction of the balance sheet. 10 leverage ratio, 11 leverage ratio, whatever it is, the only obligation that they're focused on, like, right. Like at the moment, is that monthly dividend payment. It's like, okay, well, we've got 40 years of liquidity on this monthly dividend payment that we owe. Like, yeah, we're going to be okay. So they're in the market going to identify, like, how can we raise more capital to, you know, go buy more Bitcoin and keep these, this elegant capital structure moving? It's just, it's such an elegant and simple structure. It's. It's hard to conceptualize for most people. Right. Like, we've, we've wrapped our heads around it. We've quit. Quit everything we were doing previously to go work on this stuff.
C
Yeah, I got some fight. Can we pump some. I'm going to do my final thoughts.
A
Final thoughts. Let's wrap it around.
C
And I'm going to be super bullish. So let me just, let me show you why I'm super bullish. And, and we'll do this.
A
Is it because Coffeezilla is, you know, saying to 600, 000 people that he doesn't get it and it's a Ponzi scheme adjacent.
C
So.
A
So I hope you bring me on. I would love to talk. I would love to talk about risk because I, I've done more.
E
I think Sailor. Why shouldn't Sailor go on Coffee Zeller?
A
He could absolutely go for it.
E
I, I think he should.
D
I was shocked that, that he, he.
B
I mean, the collective.
D
I insta clicked that video. I was like, oh, my God. I have, I have to hear this.
C
By the way, you notice that I listened to what he said. And I will tell you that. I don't know, 80 of his points were true, but everything was like. And, you know, strategy is selling STRC to buy Bitcoin. I'm like, right?
A
Yeah, yeah. The whole thing was just ridiculous. I, I can't even. The, the Bankless podcast. I, I had to turn it off. How can you go into an interview with a guy that runs a company worth $60 billion and not do any research? Like, how stupid are you? I just can't conceptualize it. Like, what I. Why would you do that? It's just insane.
E
Margin.
C
I don't know how. I don't know. These people, they always ask the same question over and over again.
E
Sailor has a brokerage account and he's just like, he has $60 billion in a brokerage account and he's on margin.
C
Wait a second. I'll see if I, I will try.
A
They run a podcast called Bankless. Like, are we, are we sure? Like, my God, the first
E
guys, inherently, they have lower IQs. But I, we just need to keep that in mind.
A
But they're the mid curve. Oh God. Okay, final thoughts. Let's pass it around. Maybe Soleil, we'll start with you.
D
Yeah. So there's some new developments in bitcoin. I think there's a, there's a catalyst for end of year that once we get the spam war resolved, I think bitcoin can, can really take off. Once we get some certainty in that, it doesn't really matter which side of the issue you're on, it will get resolved towards the end of the year, this year. But the new development is that if you were considering mining or wanted to contribute some hash power to bip110, you can actually use your node and rent hash and you can build your own templates and you can signal for BIP110. I was considering getting a couple of miners, but I don't want to deal with what my electrical bills are going to be. Having loud ass miners in the basement. And it's, it's, it's a, it's a pretty new thing. I think it's through brains. Matt Crowder's got some cool videos on how to get it set up. So if you were interested in contributing some security to the network, you will pay a little bit of a surcharge. But back in the day I was paying like 4% surcharge buying freaking bitcoin on Coinbase through my credit card. So it's kyc or excuse me, Non kyc, Bitcoin. So if that's something that interests you, you're always going to pay a little bit of a surcharge for that anyway. It's a good way to support the network and to voice your opinion on how you think bitcoin should go into the future. Whether it should be, you know, spam on the chain or not. Obviously running a node is something that you can do, but now you can actually rent hash power and, you know, make your voic your vote count.
A
Brilliant. I just got a node this weekend. I am so pumped to get it plugged in and get it started. I got to start nine Labs. This is a recommendation from Ben. I know you could get one like materially cheaper. I just wanted a good one that I could plug in and start working with. So Soleil, I will probably reach out and talk to you about it. One of the things I'm most pumped about, pulling on chain data into my AI. I am fired up about it. And yeah, so the analytics that we can build off of that and connect it, I think True north could be a platform for all of these things. So pretty pumped. Maybe. Over to you, Mason. Yeah, thanks Soleil. Over to you, Mason. What do you final thoughts?
E
Yeah, I just have one quick comment. You know, I, I listen to a lot of, a lot of bitcoin podcasts and there's a lot of great macro analysts out there and I, it's gotten to the point where, you know, there's a few macro analysts out there or just people in the bitcoin space who are talking about price or, or talking about the bitcoin market and they just haven't mentioned Stretch once. And it's so frustrating because it's, it's like the most, it's the most important innovative, like capital structure in the space. And if, if you're looking at the, the bitcoin market through a framework that doesn't include Stretch, I, I think your framework has a gap. So I, I would, I would just say if you're listening to those people, also consider the fact that they haven't been paying attention to Stretch, which is, is probably the biggest story in, in, in the bitcoin space right now. So it is, that's, that's just been on my mind.
A
Absolutely. Hands down, the largest buyer.
E
Yeah.
A
At least the largest transparent buyer.
E
Yeah. And, and that, that transparency affects, affects the entire market. And it's actually really interesting to see. You know, I follow a bunch of like short term gamblers, you know, who are just doing perps and stuff. And, and, and they are recognizing the impact that Stretch is having on, on the, on the price action, specifically around the dividend dates because that's a clear cut off of buying stopping. Right. So they're going to short that. Super interesting.
A
Yeah. I mean, clearing a billion dollars of bitcoin, like you could do it. You could do it in a day. I would suspect they kind of spread it out over a couple of days. But you're talking about a really significant pace, $25 million of buy per hour. Hour or something like that. It's like a pretty. That's a pretty significant pace of accumulation, Bitcoin accumulation. Yeah. I look forward to seeing kind of how it plays out, average price and things like that. But, yeah, I mean, a lot of people have. No, it's just crazy or that. I think they're very frustrated. I think there are a lot of people that are very frustrated with this because it's doing something different that they didn't anticipate. Right. They didn't anticipate that there was going to be a publicly traded corporation that was going to be issuing a credit instrument against this. And it kind of like, again, breaks the fabric of, you know, a lot of people that built these business plans over the last four years or six years, eight years, that are built on this not existing, and they have to pivot. Like, a lot of companies are going to have to pivot, recognizing that, like, the market has changed. And that's uncomfortable. Right. Like, you've got a business and your business is a function of how this works. Like, you may. You may be better off pivoting and doing something else. And I think that's an uncomfortable reality to. To face. And the other reality is like, bitcoin is decentralized. You don't own it. Like, you can't tell anybody to go do it. Like you don't like it. Who cares? You can't, you can't change that. People are going to do with bitcoin what they do with bitcoin. And ultimately this is bringing new, fresh capital into the market that has historically never bought bitcoin and they would never buy bitcoin. This is necessary to move the entire bitcoin network forward. This is the bridge of capital to bring traditional capital into digital capital. These digital credit instruments are the bridge. Digital equities are the bridge. Digital credit is the bridge. The entire ecosystem needs to evolve and grow. But yeah, completely agree, completely agree. It's crazy. The bitcoin conference, they came out with one of those agenda. It looks like a music festival with all the artists on it. Yeah. And nobody from Strive is on it. It's like, oh, well, we've got the second digital credit instrument in the market. I think it's pretty important.
E
Yeah,
A
so it's.
E
I wasn't on it either. So,
A
yeah, I don't know, there's some games. But anyway, over. Over to you. Over to you, Mike. Final thoughts.
C
So I want to be a little bit exciting when I wrap up here. So we'll talk about bitcoin for a second. Okay. S P 500. And you can see on here in this chart, I, I don't change any of the settings that are on this, whether for MACD moving average, convergence, divergence or rsi. And so if you look on this, you can see down here the MACD 12 and 26, those are the date frames. And so what happened was this date when it changed over what I'm trying to say here. Now we can see on March, April 6th was the bottom. And then basically within 12 days, S P 500 completely recovered. Okay, so what does this mean? It's like you got to buy the dip to buy the dip to get in. And people always say when it goes, when's the dip coming again? Probably when some crappy news comes out. How does that relate to us? Who cares about the S P500? Let's look at bitcoin. Right? So bitcoin, if we look on a daily chart, well, it's above the, the 50 day. It's above the 100 day moving average, which is purple. So it's above that. The 100 day moving average is 74, 800 on a daily chart. Let's flip it real fast and go to a weekly chart. If we go on a weekly chart and we look at this, you're like, huh? It kind of looks okay, but I want to show you something interesting. The MACD on the weekly has just, has just crossed over where this blue is Crossed. Crossed over the red. You're like, okay, that's interesting. That's for bitcoin on a weekly. So this is not looking at it intraday. It's not four hour, two hour. This is on a weekly chart. Now let's go to MSTR. On MSTR, it's still trading below the 200 day moving average. But if you look, the MACD occurred on February 23rd. So if you want to buy the dip, you got to buy it when it's dipped. You can't wait. You know, if strategy goes back to 200 a share, you're like, oh, when's it going to dip again? Well, we just had, you know, a brief crypto winter that existed from October 10th to whatever date and it runs back up and bitcoin moves Faster in theory than the S P500. But what I think is going to happen is that, you know, this group True north, you were talking about capital flows and stretches buying bitcoin. I think the price rebounds relatively quick, quickly. The MACD has already crossed over on a weekly chart. The RSI on the bottom, you can see the purple. The purple line down here is looking really good. It's trended up, so the price is low. People are like, well, I'm waiting for 60k. 60k is not coming back again.
A
Maybe it's just crazy. It's crazy that the RSI is similar to where it was in like bear market in 2022. If, like, if we're right and this is like really bottom of the bear market that like. And it just never comes back. I mean this thing could absolutely rip. It's going to be shot out of a cannon and good luck getting a good price to buy at a certain point in time. I mean, this could reprice, I think, pretty quickly. Yeah.
C
So I'll sum up. Strategy is going to announce they have more than 800,000 bitcoins on Monday. Numbers are probably going to be 810 or higher. Strategy is going to hit a million bitcoins sometime in September. We have a counter that has the exact date for it. We also have a, a bear case, a base case and a bull case. So it could be sooner, it could be later, but it'll hit a million bitcoins. Then it's going to hit 2 million bitcoins sometime in 2027 if it doesn't hit 2 million bitcoins because the price went so fast, so high that it couldn't do it. Am I pumping things up? Sure. But I believe in bitcoin, so I think that's going to happen. What else I think is going to happen? I think that STRC is a major success. I think they're going to probably do 100% strc. I think they're going to. They want the stock price to go up. I think now they have a lever to pull that's successful. The other prefs, they tried to do it. So I'm bullish and I think that these are pretty simple terms. So I think this looks good. If somebody has better data than me or better analysis, I'd love to see it, just post it.
A
You know, the other thing we know that we. The other thing we know is that you're going to be on spaces.
C
I want to tell you something. I'm probably not going to be on a lot, you know, what happened today on Spaces, I'm not going to rehash it here. I'm not going to say any names, but I'm going to do. I did my own space today and I had almost 200 people simultaneous. I'm going to run my own spaces and talk. I was on a space for hour 15 minutes and I had, I don't know, 600 people.
A
I was making fun of you for talking about being on spaces.
C
Like, I know you're making fun of me, but. No, but it's crazy what took place over the past space. I totally get it. I'm going to run my own spaces. I'm going to record my own videos. I think you guys are awesome. Everybody have a good night. Let's hear the last one. And.
A
Dan, what do you got?
B
Crane, I'm as excited as you are about the price action. I think Stretch is a big deal and excited for the future.
A
Absolutely. There you go.
B
I will also be running my own spaces simultaneously.
E
I also wanted to say I was on Spaces today. I did one with bitcoin for corporate creations.
A
We're all.
E
Check it out.
A
Spaces are crazy. Okay. I guess spaces are a thing. Let's do that. More content, long spaces. I think short form content is, is going to hit here in the near future. If you want to do those little videos, Dan, you do them all the time. I love, I love when you do those and they're little snippets that I pop and I catch it. So I love that. Keep doing it.
B
Yeah, I'm gonna take channel and do that.
A
Tick tock. Yeah, hit. Hit them all. I think we're live on Twitch now. We're live potentially on Instagram and Kick and we're hitting other platforms with true north as well. So if you know somebody that's on those things and I have been looks
B
maxing, maybe we can
A
search terms.
B
We can put looks maxing and grow our distribution.
A
Looks maxing. Strc. We'll just sneak straight.
B
Has been too.
A
We've all been looks masking, looks maxing. Just getting huge too. Okay, my final thoughts. I got to hit it. Bitcoin is One global consensus is bitcoin is digital capital. Four year cycle is dead. Price is now driven by capital flows. We've got new capital, fresh capital that's coming into the market that has never been interested in bitcoin. And now the spigot has been turned on. There's been a lot of hatred from the bitcoiners that are like, oh, you're fiatizing all of these bitcoiners. It's like, no, I'm bitcoinizing a lot of fiat people and I'm taking simple capital that was losing money and thinking about converting it into something where they can actually store their money and store their energy for the future. I think Saylor's been hitting on this. The biggest idea is having a savings account that could pay you 8% and store your money and be protected against inflation and that like, that would fundamentally change how society works. And like, these products are going to fundamentally change the fabric of society and it is super exciting to be part of it. And that's all I've got. Thank you like and subscribe. That helps us a lot. Hopefully. You know, we want the energy to get louder here and we think that bewilderment is intensifying. So, you know, let's drive people to the source of information. We want to be a hub for everything. Digital credit, everything, you know, digital capital, digital risk platforms, dashboards, etc. Check out tnorth.com and appreciate everybody for the time. We will catch you next week. Cheers.
D
Deal.
Date: April 16, 2026
Episode Focus: The forefront of Bitcoin-backed financial innovation, macroeconomic capital flows, and the rise and mechanics of digital credit instruments like STRC (“Stretch”) in an evolving marketplace.
This episode dives into the explosive growth of Bitcoin-backed credit structures and the rapidly changing capital environment surrounding them. The True North Podcast team—the core voices being Jeff (A), Soleil (D), Dan (B), Mason (E), and “Grain of Salt”/Mike (C)—unpack the technical mechanics, capital flows, risk dynamics, and the psychological shift that new Bitcoin-linked financial instruments (like STRC, digital credit, and collateralized finance) are forcing upon both institutional and retail investors. They also compare market behaviors, discuss current and future trends, and reflect on the magnitude and implications of these financial innovations for the entire macro landscape.
“The real catch, though, is that Fiat dollars have been compounding annually against you for at 6.7% for the last 50 years in a row. ... Nobody’s ever seen an interesting alternative before, and it’s breaking people's brains.”
Quote:
“The biggest buyer of bitcoin is Strategy. And they do it publicly… you could go read the [SEC filings]…There’s 80% of the way there, right." — Mike/Grain of Salt [07:10]
Quote:
“They don't have to build a new factory ... they just bought this and they put it into storage with their custodians…they don't really do anything but hold them and sell str[etch].” — Mike/Grain of Salt [13:53]
Memorable Explanation:
“As the price goes down, the deal, the yield dynamically goes up. That’s the way bond math works ... they [hedge funds] are arbing now ... the APY on that trade is very, very, very high.” — Dan [26:13]
Quote:
“Bitcoin’s not going up in price. It just takes you more money to buy the same bitcoin. ... We’re going to talk about some really complex stuff ... STRC and MSTR and amplification rate and bitcoin gain versus bitcoin yield.” — Mike/Grain of Salt [36:33]
Quote:
“If there’s any premium in the common equity, there’s no limit to the amount of STRC issuance …” — Dan [46:24]
On the changing paradigm:
“The real catch ... is not digital credit. The catch is fiat.” — Jeff [04:41]
On capital flows vs. cycles:
“Four year cycle is dead. Price is now driven by capital flows. … Bank and digital credit will determine bitcoin’s growth trajectory.” — Quoting Saylor [16:26]
On capital efficiency:
“They can acquire a billion dollars easily in 48 to 72 hours, which is impossible in almost any other industry.” — Mike/Grain of Salt [15:33]
On risk and robustness:
“The price of Bitcoin would have to go to $726. That’d be a 99% decline. … the risk profiles of these two [Strategy and ASST] instruments are different …” — Jeff [39:47–45:16]
On behavioral/psychological change:
“People don’t like when the fabric of their reality is torn apart. ... That’s happening with everybody in real time with AI and these new instruments.” — Jeff [04:41]
On who benefits from innovation:
“The innovation is simple: Water is wet. As they get bigger, they can acquire more [Bitcoin].” — Jeff [80:08]
On peer reactions:
“It is so elegantly simple, people think it must be wrong.” — Jeff [14:32] “Bitcoin is not going up in price. It just takes you more money to buy the same bitcoin.” — Mike/Grain of Salt [36:33]
| Time | Topic | |-----------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:14–04:37 | Macro outlook, optimism, and Bitcoin as “lifeboat” | | 05:58–08:22 | Market sentiment, S&P recovery, and party lines around Bitcoin & rates | | 08:41–10:56 | ASST dynamics, amplification, and M.Nav | | 10:56–16:13 | STRC ATM tracking; $1B+ capital raise; new speed paradigm | | 16:26–26:13 | Market comparison: STRC outperforms equities; yield arbs and flows | | 30:26–34:31 | Macro: Fed, CPI, yields, STRC links | | 39:47–45:16 | Balance sheets: Strategy vs. ASST, risk, net capital, leverage | | 45:34–54:39 | STRC scaling, speed limit, amplification ratios | | 55:24–57:29 | Josh Mann’s scenario: rate cuts, floating vs. fixed instrument dynamics | | 62:55–82:32 | Data deep-dive: ranking Strategy’s quarters, efficiency, scaling | | 84:36–87:59 | Final roundtable: network upgrades, ASST/Stretch, macro analysis |
“If you’re looking at the bitcoin market through a framework that doesn’t include Stretch, your framework has a gap.”
“Bitcoin is One global consensus is bitcoin is digital capital. Four year cycle is dead. Price is now driven by capital flows.”
“These products are going to fundamentally change the fabric of society and it is super exciting to be part of it.”
| Instrument | BTC Held | Assets | Debt | Leverage | Key Feature | |--------------------|--------------|--------------------|---------------|--------------|-----------------------------------| | Strategy/MSTR | 780,000 | $58B | $8.2B | 10% | Public, transparent, largest BTC | | ASST | 13,767 | (smaller) | $10M | 1% | “High-beta” play, lower leverage | | STRC (Stretch) | N/A | BTC-backed credit | N/A | N/A | High volume, innovative issuance |
If you’re new to this space or to digital credit, this episode is an essential primer on how and why Bitcoin-backed financial products are reshaping both market infrastructure and investor psychology. The hosts bring data-driven clarity, real-world experience, and a refreshingly direct tone to a complex topic—making the bewilderment and excitement both understandable and contagious.