An Unnatural Disaster

Summary

Trumpland with Alex Wagner: Episode Summary – "An Unnatural Disaster"

Release Date: April 10, 2025
Host: Alex Wagner, MSNBC
Episode Title: An Unnatural Disaster

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1. The Onset of a Global Trade Turmoil

In the episode opening at [01:41], Alex Wagner sets the stage for a tumultuous week marked by significant economic upheaval initiated by President Donald Trump's latest trade policies. The crisis began on a Wednesday when Trump announced a sweeping executive order imposing reciprocal tariffs on numerous countries.

• Trump's Announcement:
  [01:48] Donald Trump: "In a few moments, I will sign a historic executive order instituting reciprocal tariffs on countries throughout the world."

This declaration sent immediate shockwaves through global markets, leading to drastic movements on Wall Street.

• Market Impact:
  [02:03] Roman Mars: "Day of dramatic losses and high anxiety over Donald Trump's global trade war."
  [02:09] Alex Wagner: "Last week's spill on Wall street erased nearly $6 trillion from the market."

JP Morgan's grim projections added to the apprehension, forecasting a possible economic contraction and a rise in unemployment to 5.3% due to the tariffs.

• Economist's View:
  [02:10] Roman Mars: "Recession forecasts growing. JP Morgan now expecting the economy to contract under the weight of the tariffs and that a recession will drive unemployment up to 5.3%."

2. Immediate Repercussions and Trump's Strategic Pausing

Initially, Trump's tariffs targeted a broad spectrum of American imports, aiming to rectify trade imbalances. However, the immediate backlash from international partners and the resultant market instability prompted a rapid policy shift.

• Trump's U-Turn:
  [02:43] Alex Wagner: "Then, just as abruptly as it began on Wednesday afternoon, Trump decided to hit pause. Sort of."
  [02:51] Roman Mars: "Less than a day after these tariffs went into effect, the President says he is pausing or substantially reducing most of them. A 90-day pause for most countries."
  [03:03] Alex Wagner: "President Trump has decided to impose smaller, universal 10% tariffs on every American trading partner except China."

Despite this pause, Trump's stance against China remained aggressive, with tariffs on Chinese imports soaring to 145%, met with China's retaliatory 84% tariffs on American goods. This escalation threatens sectors deeply intertwined with Sino-American trade, notably agriculture.

• Trump on Agriculture Tariffs:
  [04:32] Donald Trump: "The tariffs will go on agricultural product coming into America and our our farmers starting on April 2nd. It may be a little bit of an adjustment period. Probably have to bear with me again, and this will be even better."

3. The Heart of the Storm: North Carolina's Farmers on the Frontline

Alex Wagner delves into the tangible impact of Trump's policies by visiting Pace Family Farms in Clayton, North Carolina, a region heavily reliant on agricultural exports to China. Here, she engages with local farmers who share their apprehensions and steadfast support for Trump despite the looming economic threats.

• Farmer Insights:
  [07:10] Ryan Roberson: "You don't know which direction, what the President's really thinking at this time. If we look at how his past actions have been, it's almost like the bark's worse than the actual bite itself."

The interviewees, all Trump supporters, express a mix of optimism rooted in faith and concern over the unpredictable nature of the tariffs.

• Michelle Pace Davis on Faith and Resilience:
  [07:32] Michelle Pace Davis: "We do a lot of praying. We have a lot of faith, and our faith is in God and not in administration."

Despite their support, the farmers grapple with uncertainty regarding market access and the escalating costs of production inputs, which they cannot easily pass on to consumers.

• Economic Strain:
  [15:03] Michelle Pace Davis: "We're not going to be harvesting until the fall. And so you're having all these costs coming in and so you're having to figure out again, how are you managing that and then hoping what's that market going to be whenever it's time to sell it to get all your money back."

4. Economic Analysis with Annie Lowrey: Unpacking the Fallout

To provide a broader economic perspective, Alex converses with Annie Lowrey, a staff writer for The Atlantic, who offers a critical analysis of Trump's tariff strategy and its long-term implications.

• Lowrey on Tariff Insanity:
  [28:53] Annie Lowrey: "The tariffs were nutty to begin with. The Liberation Day rates were nutty. They implemented tariffs on countries that have a trade surplus with the U.S. right."

Lowrey underscores the chaos introduced by Trump's unilateral tariff decisions, highlighting the destabilization of both stock and bond markets, which traditionally move inversely. The unexpected decline in bond prices alongside the stock market turmoil signals deeper liquidity issues within global markets.

• Impact on Global Perception:
  [34:06] Annie Lowrey: "The United States has benefited from the fact that when global investors want to go to a safe asset, they go to an American asset... If on the margin, you start to see some major investors say, you know what, let's do some Euro bonds, let's, let's not do dollars, let's do some Euro bonds... This could lead directly to higher borrowing costs... I would really, really worry about that."

Lowrey warns of potential long-term consequences, including elevated borrowing costs for the U.S. government, households, and businesses, stemming from a possible erosion of the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency.

5. Consumers Caught in the Crossfire

The episode further explores how the tit-for-tat tariffs between the U.S. and China are poised to directly affect American consumers. Essential goods spanning from clothing to automobiles will likely see significant price hikes as companies navigate increased production costs due to tariffs.

• Consumer Price Surge:
  [36:28] Annie Lowrey: "A lot of clothing, textiles, right, made in China. Those are going to mechanically become more expensive... American manufacturers tend to produce goods with foreign parts... every time you cross the border, you hit a tariff... things will just be twice the cost, I guess."

This scenario threatens to exacerbate the existing cost of living challenges, including inflation in everyday items like eggs and clothing, leading to widespread economic discomfort among the populace.

• Lowrey’s Concerns on Inflation:
  [38:18] Annie Lowrey: "We're in for a rough... farmers are going to go out of business... you cannot pass price increases onto consumers because you produce commodities where the price is set externally... this is going to make it worse."

6. The Dichotomy of Political and Economic Realities

The episode poignantly captures the disconnect between political allegiance and economic reality. While farmers steadfastly support Trump, betting on his business acumen to navigate the trade war, the unfolding economic strain presents an existential dilemma.

• Farmer's Predicament:
  [24:06] Alex Wagner: "You're talking about something that is completely beyond your control versus, like, someone who's... a person in the White House making decisions. Does that frustrate you at all that it's as unpredictable as the weather?"

• Lowrey on Partisanship and Economic Fallout:
  [38:18] Annie Lowrey: "We now have a group of partisans on the right and on the left in this country who will support a party no matter what it does... without a bailout, farms are going to go out of business... prices are set externally."

Lowrey emphasizes that the unwavering partisan support for Trump may hinder constructive dialogue and necessary economic adjustments, potentially leading to further financial instability and erosion of public trust in economic policies.

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Conclusion: Navigating the Uncharted Waters Ahead

As the episode wraps up, both Alex Wagner and Annie Lowrey anticipate ongoing turbulence in the economic landscape, driven by Trump's unpredictable trade maneuvers. The interplay between political dogma and economic pragmatism remains fraught with challenges, leaving both farmers and consumers in a precarious position.

• Looking Forward:
  [40:43] Alex Wagner: "We'll have another podcast on that when that happens."

The episode underscores the critical need for coherent and sustainable economic policies, highlighting the precarious balance between political objectives and the tangible realities faced by individuals and industries across America.

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This summary encapsulates the key discussions, insights, and conclusions from the "An Unnatural Disaster" episode of "Trumpland with Alex Wagner." Notable quotes have been included with timestamps for reference, providing a comprehensive overview for those who have yet to listen.

Transcript

[Alex Wagner]

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[Roman Mars]

Hi, I'm Roman Mars, host of the podcast 99% Invisible. Design is everywhere in our lives, but it's easy to not notice or take it for granted. 99% Invisible is a weekly exploration of the process and power of design and architecture. It's stories of who we are through the lens of the things we build. Like have you ever wondered why we use the 1kHz bleep sound to cover up inappropriate words on radio and TV? Or what ASP of Infrastructure allow 5 year olds in Japan to run errands by themselves while kids in the US are completely dependent on their parents or their parents cars? Or why the historic flag of South Vietnam shows up at right wing protests all the time? Or why people are obsessed with houseplants? And when did we start bringing plants from halfway around the world into our homes to begin with? 99% invisible we'll explore all of that and more every Tuesday. Follow and listen to 99% invisible wherever you get your podcasts.

[Alex Wagner]

It has been a week that shook the world. Literally. This is how it all started mostly last Wednesday.

[Donald Trump]

In a few moments, I will sign a historic executive order instituting reciprocal tariffs on countries throughout the world.

[Alex Wagner]

And this is what happened pretty much immediately on Wall street today, a second.

[Roman Mars]

Day of dramatic losses and high anxiety over Donald Trump's global trade war.

[Alex Wagner]

Last week's spill on Wall street erased.

[Roman Mars]

Nearly $6 trillion from the market. Recession forecasts growing. JP Morgan now expecting the economy to contract under the weight of the tariffs and that a recession will drive unemployment up to 5.3%.

[Alex Wagner]

The ripple effects of President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs concerning for shoppers the cost.

[Annie Lowrey]

Of toys, phones, cars, all expected to.

[Roman Mars]

Spike, the President of the European Commission said in a statement. The global economy will massively suffer, adding that the consequences will be dire for.

[Donald Trump]

Millions of people around the globe.

[Alex Wagner]

And then, just as abruptly as it began on Wednesday afternoon, Trump decided to hit pause. Sort of.

[Roman Mars]

It's an extraordinary bit of governing by social media posts. Less than a day after these tariffs went into effect, the President says he is pausing or substantially reducing most of them. A 90 day pause for most countries.

[Alex Wagner]

Instead of a total reorientation of Global trade. President Trump has decided to impose smaller, universal 10% tariffs on every American trading partner except China.

[Annie Lowrey]

The new rate that President Trump has added in tariffs against China so far this term is 145% on Chinese imports.

[Alex Wagner]

And China has stated it will impose an 84% tariff on all American exports. And that is a huge deal. For context, China and the US traded an estimated $585 billion in goods last year, according to data from the US government. The vast majority of that $440 billion was America importing Chinese goods. So despite the fact that the market celebrated Trump's, I guess we'll call it u turn on Wednesday, despite the fact that the Dow soared by nearly 3,000 points at the end of trading, despite all of that, the reality is that this trade war is not over yet, not by a long shot. If America and China hold firm on these announced tariffs, it will touch nearly every sector of our economy. And we have some idea about what that might look like. Although admittedly smaller in scale, the last time the US And China clashed on trade, there was one group hit particularly hard. American farmers. And in his second term, President Trump is asking them to bear with him again.

[Donald Trump]

The tariffs will go on agricultural product coming into America and our our farmers starting on April 2nd. It may be a little bit of an adjustment period. Probably have to bear with me again, and this will be even better. That was great.

[Alex Wagner]

Trump has tried to suggest America's farmers were the beneficiaries of his trade war with China in his first term when he put a 20% tariff on 60% of trade between the two countries. The USDA reports that farmers lost 27 billion billion due to these foreign trade actions. Trump and Biden sparred over this in a 2020 presidential debate.

[Donald Trump]

First of all, China is paying. They're paying billions and billions of dollars. I just gave $28 billion. I just gave $28 billion to our farmers. Taxpayers money. It's what? Taxpayers money didn't come. No, the taxpayer is. It's called China. China paid 28 billion. And you know what they did to pay it, Joe? They devalued their currency, and they also paid up. And you know who got the money? Our farmers. Because they were targeted.

[Alex Wagner]

And yes, American farmers did receive money as a result of that trade war, but it wasn't China who paid them. It was the US government. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, 92% of the revenue that the first Trump administration generated from its trade war with China was funneled right back into subsidies for America's. Farmers to help them stay afloat because they were drowning as a result of of Trump's trade war. But back then, Trump's success, at least in the agricultural sector, was measured in his ability to break even. This time around, though, it is unclear whether Trump will be able to solve this fairly massive problem of his own creation. North Carolina, for example, is a state that grows, among many things, a lot of tobacco. And one of the largest buyers of that tobacco is China. Beyond the market for American produce, there are the supplies and farming equipment which depend on manufacturing from places including China. And all of that may now get exponentially more expensive given Trump's latest tariffs. 77% of farming dependent counties voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 election. So farmers are a significant base of the president's support, but they also happen to be in potentially significant financial peril because of his actions. So we sat down with some of them to hear how they are thinking about their futures at the start of a second trade war.

[Ryan Roberson]

You don't know which direction, what the President's really thinking at this time. If we look at how his past actions have been, it's almost like the bark's worse than the actual bite itself.

[Alex Wagner]

On this episode of Trump Land with Alex Wagner or going to Johnston County, North Carolina, to speak with some of the farmers who helped put Donald Trump back in the White House.

[Kim Lacquire]

We do a lot of praying. We have a lot of faith, and our faith is in God and not in administration.

[Ryan Roberson]

I would rather face this trade war than a category 4 or 5 storm coming off the coast of Wilmington and.

[Alex Wagner]

Hear what Trump's tariffs mean, not just for them, but for the entire country.

[Annie Lowrey]

They were willing to put the American economy in a recession to do what? To magically transform us back into the economy of the 1870s. It didn't even make any sense.

[Roman Mars]

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[Alex Wagner]

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[Annie Lowrey]

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[Alex Wagner]

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[Annie Lowrey]

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[Roman Mars]

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[Alex Wagner]

It's Tuesday afternoon and we are in the car driving to Pace Family Farms, which is in Clayton, North Carolina. And it's green. It's April and it's the beginning of planting season and we're going to be speaking with a number of farmers, many if not all of whom voted for Donald Trump and now are in the crosshairs of his tariff war. These are the people who are most immediately and directly affected by China not buying as many soybeans from the United States or looking elsewhere for agricultural exports. Every hour brings a kind of new development in this saga, but we're here because, you know, there's a real practical human impact to all of this, and these are the people that are going to feel it the most. And they also happen to be Trump supporters. North Carolina is an interesting place to see how farmers are feeling about Trump's tariff strategy. In terms of agricultural production, the state ranks first for tobacco and sweet potatoes. It's number two for turkey and hog production and for sales of Christmas trees. The 2022 census reported over 42,000 farms in the state, but the amount of land used for agricultural production has been declining since 2017. What hasn't wavered, however, is support for Donald Trump in the state's rural counties. Data from the 2024 election shows that some of North Carolina's already red counties turned an even deeper shade of red. About a 45 minute drive from the Raleigh Durham airport, we turn onto a dirt road with a big sign that reads Pace Family Farms. Michelle Pace Davis is a sixth generation farmer who runs this 120 acre farm.

[Michelle Pace Davis]

Our family has been farming for over 100 years.

[Alex Wagner]

She walks me out into a nearby field of strawberries, one of their main cash crops.

[Michelle Pace Davis]

This field right here was tobacco. 2017 was our first year with strawberries and opening our whole farm up to the public.

[Alex Wagner]

Look at this is perfect.

[Donald Trump]

Yeah.

[Annie Lowrey]

So you can go ahead and pick It Really? Yeah.

[Alex Wagner]

Oh, my God. This is so awesome.

[Michelle Pace Davis]

You can't beat a farm fresh strawberry.

[Alex Wagner]

Pace is a public facing farm. People can buy produce directly on site or pick their own berries. On Tuesday, before Trump's latest tariff maneuver was announced, Pace Farms hosted us, along with a few other local farmers.

[Cody Waters]

I'm Ryan Roberson. We grow row crops, corn, soybeans, sweet potatoes.

[Ryan Roberson]

My name is Cody Waters. My wife and I grow watermelons and row crops.

[Brandon Batten]

I'm Brandon Batten from Four Oaks, North Carolina. We grow fluker tobacco, corn, wheat, soybeans, grass, hay, cereal, rye, and beef cattle.

[Kim Lacquire]

Kim Lacquire, Princeton, North Carolina. We grow tobacco, soybeans, cotton, wheat, corn, sweet potatoes, and watermelons.

[Michelle Pace Davis]

I'm Michelle Pace Davis right here in Clayton. So we have you pick strawberries, corn, tomatoes, all your fresh local produce that we're able to grow here in North Carolina.

[Annie Lowrey]

We grow.

[Alex Wagner]

For context, who do you guys vote for in the 2024 election?

[Ryan Roberson]

I'm proud to say I voted for President Trump.

[Cody Waters]

Same here. Both times.

[Alex Wagner]

Both times I voted for Trump.

[Ryan Roberson]

Yeah, both times.

[Kim Lacquire]

Both times.

[Michelle Pace Davis]

Both times.

[Alex Wagner]

Both times. Did you vote both times for Trump?

[Brandon Batten]

I voted for him this time.

[Alex Wagner]

So everybody here voted for him in 2024. How has the last week been for you?

[Ryan Roberson]

There's a lot of uncertainty.

[Michelle Pace Davis]

Yeah, I was going to say uncertainty.

[Ryan Roberson]

Yeah, there's a lot of uncertainty. It's just the direction. You don't know which direction. What the President's really thinking at this time, because you'd like to think in the past, if we look at how his past actions have been, it's almost like the bark's worse than the actual bite itself. And with a lot of things around the world today, you know, people get, they get in their normal routine and they never really, you know, it's easy to put something off or pushed under the table and just flow and avoid it. But then this really gets people's attention and it has, it's got the whole world.

[Alex Wagner]

It's got the world.

[Annie Lowrey]

It just has.

[Ryan Roberson]

So he has, I mean, he's, he's, that's what I feel like he's trying to accomplish with this.

[Alex Wagner]

So how do you guys make calls? How do you make, how do you prepare? China said it would fight to the bitter end. So, you know, part of it is under the President's discretion and controls. Some of it isn't. You guys are working on real margins. So how does that make an impact on your day to day?

[Cody Waters]

I'd say a lot of our decisions really are made in January And February. So kind of we've already gone down a path and we're kind of committed right now. So we have to just pray and hope that everything works well because we're kind of locked in. There's only so many things you can do. And at this point, it's late in the game for farmers.

[Alex Wagner]

What does that practically look like?

[Brandon Batten]

We've signed our tobacco contracts in January and February, a lot of which is exported to China. We've already got our guest workers applications in. They're arriving next week. So our plants are growing ready to go to the field in a week or two. So the season started. It started in January, really, for us.

[Alex Wagner]

What concerns you? Like, what's the biggest X factor for you? When you think about this, the American.

[Brandon Batten]

Farmers are very good at what we do and we need trade partners to market our surplus. The loss of any trade partner or the threatening of a new trade partner potentially because of tariffs or other issues is a problem for American farmers irregardless of the commodity that you produce.

[Alex Wagner]

Right.

[Cody Waters]

I'd say another big concern is we export a lot of our soybeans to China. And so this fall when we're harvesting beans, is there going to be a home for those beans?

[Michelle Pace Davis]

We don't know yet with agriculture and maybe some of the other industries is we're having all of these costs up front. So I mean, just like, you know, you've got to buy your seed, you've got to buy your fertilizer, our labor, all these inputs are going in right now. And so we're not going to be harvesting until the fall. And so you're having all these costs coming in and so you're having to figure out again, how are you managing that and then hoping what's that market going to be whenever it's time to sell it to get all your money back. And so I think that's one thing that's different than from so many other industries is they're able to put that cost already on the consumer.

[Alex Wagner]

Yeah.

[Michelle Pace Davis]

So whenever that TV or that furniture or your clothes, that's already marked up at Walmart.

[Annie Lowrey]

Right.

[Michelle Pace Davis]

Whereas we really can't mark our. I mean, we can't go to the grain elevator and say, I need $5 a bushel right now. That's not how it works.

[Alex Wagner]

Do you think all the farms that are around today are going to be there by the end of the year?

[Cody Waters]

No, they're going out left and right. Yeah. We losing farmers around our area constantly. And it's sad. Good farmers too.

[Donald Trump]

Yeah.

[Alex Wagner]

All of this is intended to give America a stronger hand. Right. And to shore up these industries that have been in decline or been so volatile. Right. To help you guys. And I think it's, at least on the outside, seems tragic that the sort of, all of these factors may conspire to shutter more farms instead of strengthening the hand of the farmers. If you guys could communicate anything, what would you say about the, you know, the position you're in and, you know, how you're looking at the future?

[Ryan Roberson]

I mean, we live in a world economy now. I mean, yes, we want to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States, but there's certain industries to where it's just not feasible for us to manufacture those products here. I don't see the United States being able to go in there and make blue jeans and shirts and socks, because we can't. If they do, there's nothing what it would cost to buy a pair of socks.

[Alex Wagner]

This is a global economy.

[Ryan Roberson]

This is a global economy.

[Cody Waters]

We don't want to have to ask for aid or, you know, we want to be able to make a profit and provide for our families. But I think last time Trump was in office, he did help out with a financial aid package to try to help bridge the gap from what we lost with the tariffs. So I would say one of the things is consider that, you know, to help us out to bridge that gap. We're probably going to need it if this continues to drag out.

[Alex Wagner]

The assistance that the President put in place after the last tariff increase basically erased the financial gains from that tariff increase, which I think left a lot of people scratching their heads like, well, why are we doing this to begin with? How do you think about all that?

[Brandon Batten]

What I would say is to the President is stand with us. Agriculture is always on the front lines of tariff and trade wars because of how much we export. You keep hearing short term pain for long term gain. I would just tell them to stand with us and make sure we get to that long term gain. I feel like in the last trade war we kind of went through the short term pain and I'm wondering where the gain was. Maybe we kind of came out and a little bit of turmoil and then administration changed and we had a couple of bad years with weather events and I would just say stay the course and stand with us.

[Alex Wagner]

I think that some people have not forgotten that and they're saying, well, you know what, the people that voted to put this president in office, this is your guy. And if this is your guy, you gotta roll with the policies. He enacts. And like, why should the rest of the country that didn't vote for him be bailing out farmers? I mean, there are people in this country that are like, you guys voted him in. You have to live with the consequences.

[Brandon Batten]

That's right. And they're also those same people oftentimes demand that farmers address climate change and farmers adapt different technologies. And we have responded in spades with soil health initiatives. Cover crops using less inputs to produce more on less land with less water and higher labor costs. But those same people that make those demands are not willing to pay the cost for the American products in the store they will buy. The cheaper imported products that have much lower their daily wage rate are less than what we have to pay an hour for our H2A workers that are coming in. And the disparity when you're having somebody tell you how to do what you do best for a living and then not be willing to pay for the demands that they're making is laughable. And that's what we face. We're fighting with one hand tied behind our backs because we're having to meet the regulations that are imposed to produce the quality food and address all of these other social issues we may or may not be responsible for. But at the same time, we're not seeing a return in the marketplace because American products are too expensive.

[Michelle Pace Davis]

What's different with this presidency versus some of the ones in the past is as a candidate, he came out as a businessman. And so, I mean, whereas some of the people in the past, they've only been senators or, you know, they came from the political side on up, whereas he came from a business. He didn't have any political experience before he did.

[Alex Wagner]

I mean, he did file for bankruptcy multiple times. Does that part bother you?

[Michelle Pace Davis]

Yeah, but I think he understands businesses, and I think that he sees this as a negotiation, as a business deal. And so just hoping that all that business sense is going to be able to come out and help the American consumer.

[Alex Wagner]

They're the largest tariffs in a century. They're larger than the Smoot Hawley tariffs, which many people say directly contributed to the Great Depression. Does that worry you?

[Kim Lacquire]

You know, of course those concerns are in the back of my mind. But we, you know, we're optimistic. We do a lot of praying. We have a lot of faith, and our faith is in God and not in administration. It's kind of a wait and see game. I mean, I think the main thing is it's not to overreact and get too nervous. I mean, Stay the course.

[Ryan Roberson]

Those of us that have weathered the storms and gotten through the tough times in the past in North Carolina, every year we prepare for a major hurricane. You know, every three or four years, something drastic is going to happen. You know, we're in North Carolina. You can go from being extremely dry and losing crops because you're afraid to death that you're going to burn up from the heat and the drought. Three weeks later, you'll have 8 or 10 inches of rain. So we're used, and we're accustomed to that now. It's just that much more challenging, that we've got to get through it and know how to weather this economic storm.

[Alex Wagner]

This is the thing, I think, that confounds people. You're talking about acts of God, acts of nature, hurricanes, rainstorms. This isn't that. This is a person in the White House making decisions. Does that frustrate you at all that it's as unpredictable as the weather in the world now?

[Ryan Roberson]

We need certainty and we need consistency.

[Alex Wagner]

Yeah.

[Ryan Roberson]

And you look at trade and demand and market prices, and people say, well, you know, cotton prices are the slowest they've been in 30 or 40 years. And a lot can be said the same way with soybeans and corn. All of our markets are depressed right now, and the only way to really succumb to that is we've got to be sending stuff on boats going across the seas, and we've got to create demand. We need to be working to create trade and create demand and build relationships and not tearing them down.

[Michelle Pace Davis]

But I think that's also where part of not just, you know, the president comes into play, but I think that's where also a lot of the cabinets of staff and all your other department agencies come into play and making sure we have those relationships.

[Alex Wagner]

Do you think the President has that?

[Michelle Pace Davis]

I mean, I think he knows he's got people in place, and I'm hoping that that's what he can rely on. Crops are growing, they're going in the ground. And as Ryan said, we're committed. And so just being able to also make sure that hopefully by the time it's time to harvest in July, August, September, something's maybe coming into play, and we're actually maybe able to see those benefits.

[Ryan Roberson]

I would rather face this trade war than a category 4, 5 storm coming off the coast of Wilmington straight towards us.

[Brandon Batten]

Yeah.

[Alex Wagner]

I just can't get over the fact, though, that you're talking about, like, something that is completely beyond your control versus, like, someone who's.

[Ryan Roberson]

That's what we do.

[Alex Wagner]

Very existential conversation.

[Kim Lacquire]

My papa lived to be. My grandfather lived to be 90 years old. And a farmer came to our office probably several months before he died and was just reminiscing about some of the wisdom that my papa had told him. And this particular farmer had had a terrible year farming. I mean, he didn't know if he was gonna make it or not. And my papa casually said, it's gonna be all right. I mean, it's not always gonna be fun, but it's gonna be all right. And that's kind of what gets us through.

[Brandon Batten]

I think farmers are eternal optimists. You know, everyone at this table is from a generational farm. Yeah, you don't hear about that in other industries. You don't hear people say, I'm a third generation dentist. Our ties to the land and to producing, and we've been through hard times. Yes, it's not fun. Yes, it costs equity and money. And sometimes farms go out of business. But agriculture is the one or one of the only industries in America that hasn't outsourced abroad. 85% of what happens on my farm, that is completely out of my control. So I have to do the very best I can at managing that 15% of inputs and cost and labor and marketing and signing the best contract and doing the best job that I can and leave the other 85% up to the good Lord. And that's all we can do. Whether it's weather or disease or a hailstorm or a pandemic or an administration or an administration, and we just weather the storm.

[Alex Wagner]

I'm trying to understand, as a political journalist, whether you think the people who support this president are going to have the same attitude that you guys do. I guess more broadly in the farming section.

[Cody Waters]

He got elected to shake things up and to change. You know what? A lot of Americans consider the status quo. So at some point, you have to trust the American people made a decision. And, hey, it may work out. Well, it may not, but we'll get to decide again in four years.

[Alex Wagner]

We'll have more Trumpland in just a second, right after a quick break.

[Roman Mars]

Hi, I'm Roman Mars, host of the podcast 99% invisible. Design is everywhere in our lives, but it's easy to not notice or take it for granted. 99% invisible is a weekly exploration of the process and power of design and architecture. It's stories of who we are through the lens of the things we build. Like, have you ever, ever wondered why we use the 1kHz bleep sound to cover up inappropriate words on radio and TV. Or what aspects of infrastructure allow 5 year olds in Japan to run errands by themselves while kids in the US are completely dependent on their parents or their parents cars. Or why the historic flag of South Vietnam shows up at right wing protests all the time. Or why people are obsessed with houseplants. And when did we start bringing plants from halfway around the world into our homes to begin with? 99% invisible we'll explore all of that and more every Tuesday. Follow and listen to 99% invisible wherever you get your podcasts.

[Alex Wagner]

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[Donald Trump]

Watching the Bond Market the bond market is very tricky. I was watching it, but if you look at it now, it's. It's beautiful. The bond market right now is beautiful. But yeah, I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy. I think everything had well, the big move wasn't what I did today. The big move was what I did on Liberation Day.

[Alex Wagner]

That assertion is certainly up for debate. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant denied that a mass sell off of US Government bonds forced President Trump to unwind some of his global tariffs. And who's to say really? But no matter the motivation, Trump's decision to institute a 90 day pause on his so called reciprocal tariffs does not bring all of the economic chaos to a halt. To understand what could still happen, I spoke with Annie Lowery, who's a staff Writer for the Atlantic and covers the economy and politics. She has been keeping very close tabs on all of this. We spoke shortly after Trump's announcement on Wednesday. We started today believing that we were in the middle of a global economic recession. We may still be on Truth Social. The President is starting to say be cool. That's how he started the day everything is gonna work out well and ended his Truth Social post saying, you have to be flexible. The Dow's up over, I think, 3,000 points. What the hell just happened?

[Annie Lowrey]

So, you know, the trade war started basically as soon as he got into office. Right. So we had these early tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and then steel and aluminum. And then a week ago, there was this quote, unquote Liberation Day announcement of much larger tariffs than the markets were expecting. And it wasn't out of line with what Trump had been saying that he wanted to do for a really long time. But the tariffs were enormous. So it was a 10% base rate on all countries.

[Alex Wagner]

Yeah.

[Annie Lowrey]

And then additionally high, quote, unquote, reciprocal rates. They weren't actually reciprocal on 60 countries. Territories, trading blocks. These numbers were like the most Calvin Bald thing I have ever seen. They implemented tariffs on countries that have a trade surplus with the U.S. right.

[Alex Wagner]

Right.

[Annie Lowrey]

They implemented tariffs on countries that do not export anything to the United States on a territory, Diego Garcia, that is occupied by American and British troops, by a territory that is occup entirely by penguins. This led to a lot of disturbances in the market and a really big market route. And then in the past couple days, it wasn't just equities that were involved, it was bonds. So we saw a lot of volatility in bond markets that are normally pretty stable. And then all of a sudden, as we saw a decline in the price of stocks, we saw a decline in the price of bonds, which is weird, right? Normally we expect bonds to go up when stocks go down, but it seemed like there were some actual liquidity problems in some markets. And in response, Trump announced a reduction in tariffs to a slightly less boneheaded, but nevertheless still really high level. So that's where we are. These are huge tariffs. These are going to cost American consumers hundreds of billions of dollars a year in the thousands of dollars per family. And it's a really bad situation still. I would not over interpret the market reaction. We're in for a rough.

[Alex Wagner]

It bears discussing the 90 day pause. Like what's your expectation there? Because there was so much turmoil, literally nobody but President Trump seemed to think any of this was a good idea. Is he Just buying time to sort of save face or do you think that we're actually going to be revisiting all this in 90 days?

[Annie Lowrey]

I wish that I had a great answer for you, but the tariffs were nutty to begin with. The Liberation Day rates were nutty. We still have really high tariff rates. With this new paused policy, we have this threat of big nutty tariffs to be implemented on all of our trading partners. Whenever he decides the rationale for the tariffs makes no sense. He is not going to reshore manufacturing back to the United States with this policy. He is not going to eliminate our bilateral trade deficits which have nothing to do, or close to nothing to do with trade barriers anyway. And he's apparently decision making by the seat of his pants. The rates that were announced last Wednesday, he basically picked a couple hours before the announcement. Apparently USTR had created a couple tariff schedules and he chose like the most nonsensical one. It made no sense. And then today, you know, apparently the bond market convinced him, but what's to stop him from just doing this at random, you know, and it's, it's even the justification. Is this about fentanyl? There's no fentanyl coming in from Canada. Right. Is this about bilateral deficits? What is this actually about? He insists all these countries are ripping us off, but what are they doing?

[Alex Wagner]

Yeah. Scott Besant, the Treasury Secretary, came out after Trump made his announcement on the tariffs and said that all of the countries except China will be brought down to a universal 10% tariff, which we talked about in these next three months. And then every single one of these tariffs is going to be a quote, unquote, separate, bespoke negotiation like that. Seems fully bonkers that he's going to be negotiating a separate tariff rate with every single country as if to just warn them, hey, hey, hey, if you think you're getting off with this 10% tariff, which in and of itself is highly dubious, there could be more pain down the line.

[Annie Lowrey]

I mean, we've had foreign trade officials, foreign prime ministers say that they've tried calling the White House and that they can't get through to them. Yeah, Trump unilaterally blew up 14 free trade agreements. Right. Like, how are you going to negotiate with this many countries? How are you going to do it? What do you even want from a bunch of these countries? You're going to go one by one. Right. And we had a bunch of long standing free trade agreements that he's in violation of. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of this goes to the World Trade Organization. You know, it's like a minor point, but one thing I keep on thinking about is that trade agreements are notoriously hard to negotiate. For the tpp, which was the Trans Pacific Partnership that Obama negotiated, it took years. They did 18 formal rounds. Every business lobby, every union in multiple countries went to negotiate these tariff amounts. What are they going to be negotiating? What's the point? Does Trump even have a sense of exactly what policy concessions he wants from every single one of these countries? Does he even know that some of these countries exist?

[Alex Wagner]

I'm not convinced you make a point in your piece today for the Atlantic about how the American political system and its failure is effectively causing people to really rethink investing in America being part of the American market. It's just upending. Like the intersection between politics and the global economy and the way in which Trump has made a mockery of our democracy is going to have real, both immediate and long term consequences for this country. Can you talk a little bit more about that in terms of the economic impact of this, not just today and 90 days from now, but just in terms of how, how other countries on the global stage see America?

[Annie Lowrey]

Absolutely. So fundamentally, the United States has benefited from the fact that when global investors want to go to a safe asset, they go to an American asset. They go at their core to American bonds, to treasury bonds. And there's kind of two things that I think about this. If on the margin, you start to see some major investors say, you know what, let's do some Euro bonds, let's, let's not do dollars, let's do some Euro bonds, or when we're buying American bonds, we actually want a higher yield on these. Right? We want more money for giving the United States an investment. I think you could see both of those things, and those will lead directly to higher borrowing costs, not just for the American government, but every American household and every American business. And it doesn't have to be this kind of dramatic. Oh, you know, the United States is no longer the reserve currency type of thing. You can have, like, scales and degrees of difference that can translate into billions of dollars. Because the global market is so huge, I would really, really worry about that. And when you talk to investors right now, a lot of what they're saying is right, like, are they going to default on the debt? Are they going to, like, just stop paying contracts out? Are they going to do other weird, unexpected stuff with absolutely no appreciation of the consequences for people's lives? They were willing to put the American economy in A recession to do what? To magically transform us back into the economy of the 1870s. It didn't even make any sense. So I really, really think that the effect could be long term. Here I am thinking more seriously about the risk of default and the risk of just insane policy having terrible effects over the course of the next three years and possibly longer.

[Alex Wagner]

It sort of bears spending a little bit more time on China. Like 125% tariff increases on Chinese imports and China announcing retaliatory tariffs of 84% on U.S. goods. I mean, talk to me a little bit about the practical implications of that for the American consumer, who, by the way, presumably voted Donald Trump into office in 2024 because the economy felt not good to them, inflation felt not good to them, the price of eggs felt not good to them, the price of goods felt not good to them. And now we have this with China.

[Annie Lowrey]

So think about it in two ways. So one is that you and me and everybody else here purchases a bunch of stuff that's made in China. So a lot of clothing, textiles, right, made in China. Those are going to mechanically become more expensive. So just straight up consumer goods, they'll become more expensive. In fact, the price increase might be so much that companies will take goods from China, send them to another country like Vietnam, and ship them in from Vietnam to avoid the tariff, which is also going to raise prices because that's an additional layer of cost. It means that they need to hire boats and warehouses and set these systems up and work with the Vietnamese authorities and change things. There's that. Then American manufacturers tend to produce goods with foreign parts. So cars are like a famous example of this, that a car assembled in the United States is probably made from parts from all around the world. And every time you cross the border, you would hit a tariff. So, you know, just having manufacturing and assembly in the United States is going to get more expensive because of these tariffs. And again, a lot of companies will try to evade the tariff, but still, you know, some things will come in and they'll just be twice the cost, I guess.

[Alex Wagner]

You know, I was down in North Carolina yesterday speaking with a bunch of farmers who were Trump supporters. And admittedly, this is before Trump changed his course this afternoon. But what struck me was the degree to which these folks who brought him back into office felt like a they could and would weather the storm, and that their support for Trump's overall sort of mandate or his agenda to reset the trade imbalances and to make America great again, quite literally, they were still 100% behind that. And they believed in him. They believed in his business acumen. Do you worry that there's a cleave between the sort of economic reality and the political reality on something that should be fairly uniform across both sectors?

[Annie Lowrey]

I do. I think that we now have a group of partisans on the right and on the left in this country who will support a party no matter what it does. And I think that this is probably particularly true for Trump supporters. I think that you see a tremendous amount of rationalization. That said, he's taken his own poll numbers, and we're only two and a half months into this administration, and without a bailout, farmers are going to go out of business. They don't have a lot of capacity to pass price increases onto their consumers because they tend to produce commodities where the price is set externally. Right. So you produce grain, you produce milk, you sell it on. It's not like you can say, oh, it's $5, not $4 now. You have no capacity to do that. So without a bailout, farms are going to go out of business, especially small farms. Small businesses are more vulnerable to this because they don't have the financial resources of big companies that might, you know, be on a stock exchange, that kind of thing. And I think that this stuff will really matter when it comes into a rece, when you start to have business bankruptcies, when you start to see rising prices. Right. Think about just how mad people were about the price of eggs. Now we're talking about everything. You go to buy your kid a pair of soccer cleats, and they're like $70, and you thought they would be 25. This is not going to go well. And I think you're so right to point out that people were really mad about inflation and the cost of living crisis, and this is going to make it worse.

[Alex Wagner]

Yeah. Or maybe it's enough for him to announce 125% tariffs on China, back off three months later, and say he did what he was gonna do and that he gets credit for that. It's just in Trump land, everything is upside down.

[Annie Lowrey]

Yeah. And it's like, what is coming next? I'm really worried about the debt ceiling, I'm really worried about the spending bill. I'm really worried about all of these things. And I do think that it's true that with Trump, he's like this bulldozer, and just the number of piles of sand that he's crashing into makes it impossible to kind of hold on to anything. But this is big, and you know, it's pretty clear that this is going to be like one of the signal policies of his administration. And I think, you know, this isn't over. We're going to get a bunch more crazy stuff down the line when one morning he wakes up and he decides like, up, we're not trading with the EU anymore or whatever else it is. Great.

[Alex Wagner]

We'll have a another podcast on that when that happens.

[Annie Lowrey]

Exciting.

[Alex Wagner]

We'll be back next Thursday with a new episode of Trumpland with Alex Wagner. To get this show and other MSNBC podcasts ad free, be sure to subscribe to MSNBC Premium on Apple Podcasts as a subscriber. You'll also get exclusive bonus content. And if you like what you've been listening to so far on Trumpland, please, please don't forget to rate and review the show. Also, we have some exciting POD news for us at msnbc. Three of our podcasts are nominated for Webby Awards Into America, why Is this Happening? And Prosecuting Donald Trump, now known as Main justice, are all up for awards. Check out our show notes to see how you can vote for each show and help MSNBC take home some hardware. Trumpland with Alex Wagner is produced by Max Jacobs along with Julia D'Angelo and Kay Guerrero. Our associate producer is Jamaris Perez. Our crew included Bill Hennessey on audio and Liam lee and Katie McNamara on camera. Our audio engineers are Bob Mallory and Mark Yoshizumi and Bryson Barnes is head of audio production. Matthew Alexander is our executive producer and Aisha Turner is the executive producer of Ms. And I'm your host, Alex Wagner. We'll see you next week.

[Roman Mars]

What is the secret to making great toast?

[Cody Waters]

Oh, you're just gonna go in with.

[Michelle Pace Davis]

The hard hitting questions.

[Roman Mars]

I'm Dan Pashman from the Sporkful.

[Alex Wagner]

We like to say it's not for foodies, it's for eaters. We use food to learn about culture, history and science. There was the time we looked into allegations of discrimination at Bon Appetit or when I spent three years inventing a new pasta shape.

[Roman Mars]

It's a complex noodle that you've put together every episode of the Sporkful.

[Annie Lowrey]

You're going to learn something, feel something and laugh.

[Roman Mars]

The Sporkful from Stitcher.

[Alex Wagner]

Get it Wherever you get your podcasts.