Truth in the Barrel – "Devil’s Cut | Our New Nuclear Moment w/ Adam Scheinman"

Date: October 28, 2025
Hosts: Amy McGrath, Denver Riggleman
Guest: Adam Scheinman (Nuclear nonproliferation expert)

Episode Overview

In this episode, Amy McGrath is joined by Adam Scheinman—one of America’s leading experts in nuclear nonproliferation—to explore the urgent challenges and shifting dynamics of nuclear weapons policy today. Prompted by recent geopolitical upheavals, including heightened nuclear saber-rattling by China, increased proliferation fears in Asia and Europe, and the gutting of key US diplomatic institutions, the discussion zeroes in on why many experts view this as a "new nuclear moment"—potentially the most dangerous since the Cold War’s peak.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT): Foundation and Achievements

• Historical Roots: The Cuban Missile Crisis led the US and Soviet Union to create the NPT to curb the spread of nuclear weapons.
  • Scheinman:

    “It was the Cuban Missile Crisis…that led both the United States and the Soviet Union…to write this new treaty to prevent the further spread of nuclear weapons.” (02:55)

• Effectiveness:

  "As you say, only nine countries have the bomb today, which is about the number that had the bomb 30, 35 years ago." (04:41)

• Ongoing Challenge: Preserving the treaty's “fantastic success” as strains rise.

2. A ‘New Nuclear Moment’: Why Worry is on the Rise

• Current Risks:
  • Russian war in Ukraine is making European allies question if they need their own nukes.
  • China is "doubling its nuclear arsenal at an alarming pace." (05:58)
• Shifting Trust in Alliances:
  • If US reliability drops, allies may seek their own weapons (notably in South Korea).
  • McGrath:

    "…when you pull away from our allies and you pull away from our partners, they don’t believe that you will protect them...In places like South Korea, where the majority of the population...thinks that they should get a nuclear weapon." (08:13)

• Scheinman:

  "If those countries no longer believe in the fidelity of US nuclear guarantees...they have little course but to consider whether they would need their own nuclear weapon." (10:17)

3. Breakdown of Great-Power Cooperation

• Erosion of Trust and Dialogue:
  • China and Russia are cooperating against US interests.
  • North Korea is giving troops and possibly technology to Russia.
  • “...until that war [in Ukraine] winds down, we really have nothing to talk to the Russians about.” (13:17)
• Shared Interests, Uncertain Future:
  • Russia and China don’t want more nuclear states nearby, but competition outweighs collaboration.

4. Arms Control, The End of New START, and Calls for US Buildup

• Potential for a New Arms Race:
  • With New START possibly lapsing, the US debate is shifting toward expanding its arsenal.
  • Scheinman is skeptical more nukes will actually make the US safer:

    "The idea that nuclear wars can be fought and won...stretches rationality to some point where I can't even recognize it any longer." (17:45)

• Arms Control with China:
  • China has never been part of any arms control treaty.
  • US must work to include China in future frameworks.

5. The ‘Golden Dome’ Missile Defense Project

• Background: Trump administration’s new executive order pushes for a national missile defense system.
• Concerns Over Escalation:
  • Scheinman warns such moves could encourage adversaries to build even more warheads to overwhelm defenses.

    "A U.S. sprint toward missile defense under the guise of Golden Dome will likely trigger this nuclear arms race that we see coming down the path here." (25:20)

  • The technical challenges and costs are immense, and effectiveness is uncertain.
• Historical Precedent:
  • The ABM Treaty: Capping defenses to ensure mutual deterrence worked for decades.

6. Artificial Intelligence & New Technologies: Changing the Game?

• The ‘Dead Hand’ and Human Oversight:
  • The Soviets built automatic retaliation systems; AI could enable even more terrifying scenarios.
  • Scheinman underscores the need for "human-in-the-loop" control over nuclear launches.

    "Hopefully we would agree…that there has to be a human decision...to launch a nuclear weapon." (28:20)

• Risks of Decision Speed and Submarine Tracking:
  • AI/quantum technology might compromise submarine stealth, destabilizing deterrence.

    "Any country that has nuclear weapons ought to be thinking about how to extend the decision time, not to collapse it..." (30:33)

7. The Weakening of US Diplomacy & Nonproliferation Expertise

• Gut Check for American Power:
  • McGrath worries the State Department and diplomatic corps are gutted.
  • Scheinman: America’s diplomats were central to nonproliferation leadership—they’ve been “cleared out of people that were focused on this 100% of their time.” (35:29)

    "Without leadership and without experts, the US will just simply fall behind or the institutions that we built…those systems may fall into just utter disrepair." (36:37)

• Value for Money:
  • McGrath:

    “The diplomats, the experts, that was not breaking the bank...It's big bang for your buck.” (37:16)

• International Anxiety:
  • European and Asian allies relied on US leadership and are now worried.
  • US absence hedges against both more proliferation and disarmament:

    “There’s a lot of frustration with the absence of the United States, frustration at the absence of any kind of political direction coming from Washington outside of America first, which doesn’t sound to be too compatible with nuclear treaties.” (39:41)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Nuclear weapons are not like any other weapon. They are hugely powerful and destructive, capable of wiping out entire societies as well as nations.”
  – Adam Scheinman (03:51)

• “If the requirement is we have to be able to deter both countries in a war…then we may need more nuclear weapons to deter China from believing it can launch its nuclear weapons against the United States.”
  – Adam Scheinman (17:10)

• "We have to use every tool that we have to prevent a nuclear war from, from starting. Because no one has any idea...how a nuclear war is going to end once it starts."
  – Adam Scheinman (31:53)

• “American leadership and power isn’t just the President of the United States.… It is the Adam Scheinmans of the world who are out there every day keeping America safe in their lane that they know best.”
  – Amy McGrath (40:22)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• [01:32] — Amy McGrath sets the stage; Adam Scheinman’s introduction
• [02:50] — The Nonproliferation Treaty: history, achievements, and challenges
• [05:51] — Are we in a new nuclear moment? China and Russia’s escalations
• [08:13] — US alliances: What changes drive allied proliferation debates?
• [12:01] — Russia’s Ukraine war and collapse of great-power coordination
• [15:47] — End of New START, US response, and the arms race debate
• [19:23] — The ‘Golden Dome’ missile defense: mission, cost, and global impact
• [27:58] — Artificial intelligence, automation, and nuclear decision-making
• [32:15] — The vital role of US diplomacy and what we lose by hollowing it out
• [38:39] — European and Asian allies’ view of waning US leadership
• [41:48] — Final reflections and the importance of expertise

Conclusion & Tone

The episode is a compelling, sobering, but accessible tour through the new dangers and dilemmas of nuclear policy. Both Amy McGrath and Adam Scheinman speak candidly and with urgency, weaving expert analysis with plainspoken real-talk about what’s at stake and what it takes—especially the often-invisible work of career diplomats—to keep America and the world safe from the unthinkable.

Tone: Serious, clear, and deeply concerned, but solution-oriented and focused on the practicalities of policy and diplomacy.