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Gold prices hit a new record overnight. The gold rally has its foundations in central bank accumulation. Central banks that hold gold still hold a dollar reserve asset (just one that is independent of US Treasury control). That foundation has been built on with expectations of US rate cuts.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on the most important market drivers in the week ahead, along with opportunities beyond the consensus. This week – the August employment report, AVGO’s earnings, plus, thoughts on current equity valuations.
US July personal income and spending data is due. The middle income consumers’ relatively strong starting point for the year has helped to sustain consumption, although political polarization has created some distortions in spending. Consumption remains the key focus for overall economic activity in the US this year.

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on and share takeaways from his UBS summits on longevity, and shares perspective around the connection between longer lives and rising markets. Plus, a look at where to find opportunity in the current environment.
The US provides another official estimate of second-quarter GDP. These numbers will be revised further in the future. Policy expectations distorted demand patterns for domestic consumers, but the relative strength of the middle-income US household balance sheet late last year provides a foundation for some consumer spending. Weekly continuing claims for unemployment insurance are a modest market focus.

Apollo Lupescu is a Vice President at Dimensional Fund Advisors. We cover a wide range of top of mind topics for investors, including a look at the US macroeconomic environment, the road ahead for monetary policy, the impacts of US trade policy to economic activity, asset allocation views, and more. Host: Daniel Cassidy
US taxes on Indian imports doubled to 50%. US importers should pay the old tax rate on goods already en route to the US, delaying the effect. With full pass-through and no demand switching, the tax increase would add less than 0.1 percentage point to US consumer price inflation. However, the unpredictability of US trade policy affects global corporations as they manipulate their supply chains.

Jason reflects on last week’s Jackson Hole Symposium, and speech delivered by Fed Chair Powell - we discuss what the speech suggests about the road ahead for monetary policy, and the market response. Plus, thoughts on overall market pricing as of late, and what investors have been focused on, along with a look at the latest asset allocation recommendations from CIO, per the latest UBS House View. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
US President Trump issued a letter purporting to fire Federal Reserve Governor Cook—an unprecedented action. After recent comments, investors will inevitably view this as an assault on Fed independence. There are obstacles—Trump already appointed a majority of Fed governors, without changing policy independence. If the dismissal survives the courts, the Senate must confirm any successor. Fed presidents still have policy votes. Faith in these checks may limit the negative market reaction.
Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole last week was classic Powell. That is not a terribly good thing. Powell signaled an increased probability of a September rate cut to counter the damage of trade taxes on the US economy. Markets liked that. But this was essentially the “data dependent” mantra padded with additional rhetoric.