← Ukraine: The Latest
Ukraine: The Latest
Civilians killed as Trump announces ‘energy ceasefire’ ahead of resumed peace talks
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- [00:04]
Sophia Yan
The telegraph.
- [00:09]
Raj
Hey, it's Raj and Noah.
- [00:11]
Noah
And we're back with a new season of Am I Doing It Wrong? The show that explores the all too human anxieties we have about trying to get our lives right.
- [00:18]
Raj
Because we're still doing a lot of stuff wrong.
- [00:20]
Noah
But who isn't? That's why each week we're talking about the topics that we could all use a little helping hit with. Whether it's making new friends as an adult, managing our emotions, or even dreaming.
- [00:29]
Raj
We'Ll be talking to experts in their fields who are definitely doing things right, so the rest of us can be a bit wiser and a lot better equipped to handle whatever life throws at us.
- [00:38]
Noah
Subscribe now and listen to new episodes of Am I Doing It Wrong? Dropping every Thursday starting January 1st, wherever you get your podcasts.
- [00:45]
Raj
And for the first time ever, we're going to have full video episodes on YouTube. Because as long as there are things to get wrong, we're going to be right here to help you do them better.
- [00:53]
Roland Oliphant
Love y'.
- [00:54]
Dom Knowles
All.
- [00:55]
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- [01:57]
Dom Knowles
I'm Dom Nichols and this is Ukraine. The latest Today, as Donald Trump announces an energy ceasefire, we ask what it means, has it started and can it hold? Our correspondent in Turkey tells us China is supplying critical components of Russia's nuclear capable Arashnik missiles and we have our regular fortnightly update about resistance activity in the occupied areas. Plus later we hear about a new adaptation for the Theatre of A Ukrainian Story that blends folklore with with contemporary themes of power, superstition and women's struggle for equality. Bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with Victory.
- [02:42]
Dr. Jade McGlynn
The Russia does not want peace.
- [02:52]
Dom Knowles
If I'm president, I will have that war settled in one day, 24 hours. We are with you. Not just today, today or tomorrow, but for a hundred years. Nobody's going to break us. We're strong.
- [03:09]
Roland Oliphant
We are Ukrainians.
- [03:12]
Dom Knowles
It's Friday the 30th of January, three years and 342 days since the full scale invasion began. And today I'm joined by the hosts of our sister podcast, Battle Lines, Venetia Rainey and Roland Oliphant, senior foreign correspondent Sophia Yan, our executive editor. For audio, Francis Durnley and Dr. Jade McGlynn of King's College London. I started with the somewhat opaque news about an energy ceasefire. So the headline really that we need to talk about and Venetia will take us in much more depth later. Donald Trump has announced an energy ceasefire after apparently personally asking Vladimir Putin to halt attacks as Ukraine's in the grip of winter. Now, details are very sketchy. There's a lot of confusion today, as the Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said just a few hours ago that any ceasefire is only until Sunday to give the negotiators room in Abu Dhabi more that later. We had been led to believe that it was going to be for a week that Ukraine and Russia were going to cease attacks on each other's cities and critical infrastructure. Now we also just don't know if this ceasefire has actually started. There were a lot of drones and at least one ballistic missile fired at Ukraine last night. We don't know what the terms are of any ceasefire, but in and of itself, just having a ceasefire is surely good news. There is, however, danger everywhere for Ukraine. You can bet that right now Russians are trying to shape the narrative with Donald Trump saying, you asked Donald and we agreed without delay. Now it's up to those ungrateful and duplicitous Ukrainians to finally do a deal about territory that they've been ignoring. You can just imagine that's happening right now. There's danger also for Putin. He needs a ceasefire. There is good evidence that his long range missile stocks are so low that he's been using weapons manufactured this year. And also this ceasefire, if it's a week, why not two, why not a month? If the pause is due to cold weather, what level does the mercury have to rise to for it then to be fair game once more to kill civilians? So lots of questions here for Putin. Any goodwill generated by this pause could easily evaporate. Now, as I say, more details expected about it at this weekend's resumed talks in Abu Dhabi and more diplomatic news about this and other stuff from Venetia shortly. Now let's get on with the military updates. Minimal movement on the ground yesterday, although quite a big uptick in reported Russian casualties. It was 830 I think reported yesterday for Wednesday. Today, Ukraine's general staff saying 1,310 Russian casualties that's killed, wounded, missing and taken prisoner. That shows gives an idea of how active the front line is. Now Yulia Stepanyuk, a spokesperson for the 117th separate mechanized brigade speaking to Suspilne yesterday said Russian troops have stepped up aerial bomb attacks in the vicinity of Pokrovsk which could signal preparations for an offensive. Now the stats they're putting on this, they say there were two or three such attacks in that area earlier this week. But Russian forces have been carrying out 30 strikes over the last day alone. Now I have it on good authority that Pokrovsk is still not entirely in Russian hands. There are Ukrainian troops still inside the city of Pokrovsk elsewhere across the country. Last night, as I said earlier on, 111 drones and one ballistic missile were fired by Russia targeting Ukraine. 80 drones were brought down but 15 locations were hit. Six people killed, 20 injured, mostly in Kherson Oblast. Authorities in neighboring Zaporizhzhia Oblast said that the last 24 hours Russian forces have carried out 799 individual strikes on 33 settlements in the region, including the city of Zaporizhzhia and then this morning, just in the last few hours, a passenger bus in Kherson Oblast has been attacked, killing the driver, injuring five civilians. Last time I saw. This comes from Kherson Oblast prosecutor's office speaking this morning. They say the strike happened at about midday, Kyiv time. So three hours ago, Russian troops, they say carried out an artillery strike on the city of Kherson which hit the bus again. Artillery. Is that included in any kind of ceasefire? Herzon Oblast prosecutor's office said prosecutors together with police investigators are taking all necessary measures to record and document war crimes committed by Russian Federation military personnel. Now there's a story we'll link to in the episode notes. It's in Euromaidan press today saying Russia is converting personnel from its strategic missile forces and aerospace forces, basically the air forces as we would understand it, as well as the Russian navy into ground infantry. So this is written by analyst Viktor Kivelyuk, a military expert at the Centre for Defence Strategies, a Ukrainian based strategy think tank. Now this would mark an escalation of a pattern that we've seen before. We've seen some troops rerolled and turned into infantry, but taking them from the strategic missile forces, that's the branch responsible for Russia's land based nuclear deterrent we think has happened before, but not in the numbers that we're seeing now. If Kevliuks assessment is accurate. In September 2024 you may remember Russia formed a frigate mechanized battalion from crew members of the Admiral Kuznetsov. That was Russia's only aircraft carrier occasionally seen chugging in a massive pile of black smoke up and down the English Channel. Now that battalion first deployed to Kharkiv area, then to Pokrosp. No idea what's left of it now, military analyst Mr. Kevliuk said. They're raking up everything alive. Such strange military units arise in the event of a severe shortage of OPER reserves and then quite a concerning story here. Speaking of technical innovation but also diplomacy, Russian forces are attaching Starlink satellite dishes to their drones to avoid Ukrainian jamming and strike targets deep behind the lines. So a number of BM35 drones have been equipped with Elon Musk's Internet connected terminals to extend their range. Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said yesterday that SpaceX and the Ukrainian MOD are cooperating to prevent Russian forces from using Starlink system. Mr. Fedorov said in a social media post yesterday. Within hours of Russian drones with Starlink connectivity appearing over Ukrainian cities, the Ministry of Defense team promptly contacted SpaceX and proposed ways to resolve the problem. I'm grateful to SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell and personally to Elon Musk for their swift response. Now connected to that Serhei Flash. Bez Christov, who advises Ukraine's MOD on defense technology and drone and electronic warfare, said yesterday that Russian forces have also recently begun conducting drone strikes against vehicles along the E50. That's the road between Percross sort of heading west to Pavlorad. But they're hitting things at about 50Ks from the front lines using shorter range Molnir fixed wing first person view drones with Starlink. Russian forces have been employing fixed wing drones against targets at well operational depth. So not the immediate contact battle but the bit behind it where your reserves are and your logistics supplies. They've been doing that along the front line for quite a few months, including using Molnyas and other drones as motherships to carry one or more shortened range drones to areas that they won't be able to reach before. And this has led to a number of strikes in Zaporizhzhia City from October last year. The Institute for the Study of War, the US based think tank, says Russian forces have recently begun equipping Molnir 2 fixed wing FPV drones with Starlink terminals to significantly expand their range and the Resistance to Ukrainian EW. Be interesting to see what SpaceX and Elon Musk does about that. Now then, Venetia Diplomatic updates. I think this is the story of the day that we really need to seize on. In an absence of information, things are moving fast, as in Dmitry Peskov's statement. But what do we know about the energy ceasefire? Welcome, Venetia.
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Venetia Rainey
Thanks, Dom, and thanks for having me. So what do we know about the energy ceasefire? Well, Trump made a statement yesterday saying that Putin had agreed to a one week ceasefire. As ever, the devil is in the detail. Just going to tell you first exactly what Trump said yesterday at a televised cabinet meeting at the White House. He said, I personally asked President Putin not to fire into Kyiv and the various towns for a week and he agreed to do that. I have to tell you, it was very nice. He added, we're very happy that they did it because on top of everything else, that's not what Ukraine needs, missiles coming into their towns and cities. He said the ceasefire would protect Ukraine during an extraordinarily cold, record setting pile of bad weather. Now, from those statements, it wasn't at all clear when or how Trump made that request to Putin. Neither the White House nor the Kremlin have disclosed any kind of phone call between Trump and Putin since December. And Trump, as you heard, didn't give a start or an end date for the ceasefire. I'm just going to give you what Zelenskyy said yesterday in response and then we'll get on to what Peskov has been saying this morning. So, responding last night, Zelenskyy didn't confirm the ceasefire exactly, but he said he hopes the United States can make this happen. He called it an important statement about the possibility of providing security for Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities during this extreme winter period. He also added an important caveat that will be obvious to all of our listeners. The situation is unfolding overnight and the reality at our energy facilities and in our cities will reflect this in the coming days. So the Kremlin refused to comment yesterday, but this morning spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that a request had been made and apparently last weekend. So this is what he said. Indeed, President Trump made a personal request to President Putin to refrain from striking Kyiv for a week until February 1st. So that's this Sunday in order to create favorable conditions for negotiations. When Peskov was asked whether Putin had agreed to the request, he replied, I have nothing to add to what has already been said. So that's not exactly confirmation that it will happen. And it seems like it will only last for a few more days, not a full week, if the request was made last weekend and it's going to end on February 1st. But there is some suggestion that something is happening on the ground we had Pro Kremlin military bloggers began reporting possible orders not to strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure as of 7am yesterday and Zelenskyy has confirmed this morning that there were no Russian strikes on energy infrastructure overnight. Although as you mentioned, Dom, there have been attacks on other things. Now one more thing to add that according to reports, this energy ceasefire was first discussed between Ukrainian and American officials during the peace talks in Abu Dhabi last week. And Ukraine reportedly asked for a pause in the strikes in a meeting with Russian negotiators. And the Russian side agreed, but not in writing.
- [13:41]
Dom Knowles
Yeah, it is all a bit odd. I mean, I'm no process monkey and anyone who was the lucky recipient of my staff work in the military knows that I would adhere to the maxim of just enough, just in time. But I mean, when it comes to something like this, you really need to do the homework. Just gobbing off about a phone call with dates unspecified, the terms unspecified, it's almost more unhelpful. What do you think the chances are of it succeeding?
- [14:07]
Venetia Rainey
I'm sure Rowland will speak more about this. He's done an excellent analysis which is up on the Tele website right now. But I think expectations will be pretty low given the two failed previous attempts that we had last year to broker temporary ceasefires. In March, we had Ukraine and Russia reaching an agreement for a temporary halt to strikes on energy infrastructure. The same thing during US mediated talks in Saudi Arabia. At the time, both Kyiv and Moscow said the ceasefire would start on different days and then Russian forces continued strikes. Anyway, a couple of months later we had Putin announcing, do you Remember? A unilateral three day ceasefire to mark the May 9th celebrations, the Soviet Union's victory in the Second World War. But again, that was never observed. One thing that is different this time is that Russian and Ukrainian officials are speaking directly with each other. So last year it was all shuttle diplomacy. This ceasefire will obviously be a key test of that approach by Trump.
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Dom Knowles
It will be. And of course it's worth reminding our listeners how bad Things are in Ukraine at the moment in terms of the cold weather. What? Have you got an update on that?
- [15:01]
Venetia Rainey
Yeah, so we had two recent Russian missile and drone strikes left more than 1 million people in Kyiv without power and more than 6,000 buildings without heating. The country is enduring a really brutally cold winter. Ukraine's state weather agency yesterday forecast that temperatures could go as low as -30 degrees Celsius in the coming days. Authorities are racing to restore power services. I'm just going to read a few paragraphs from some reporting that Antonia Langford has been doing for us from Kyiv. Until January, the power cuts in Kyiv followed fixed schedules. But this month, that fragile order has collapsed into complete uncertainty. Electricity arrives in apartments sporadically, often only for a few hours per day as temperatures outside dip as low as -20 degrees Celsius. Inside homes where temperatures hover at around 8 degrees, residents have described pitching tents and sleeping swaddled in layers of thermal clothing. Some have gone up to 30 hours without power at a time, while hundreds still have no heat whatsoever. With the situation most dire on the city's left bank on the east side of the Frozenova Dnipro River. Outside, the streets are hardly lit and raw, with the sound of outdoor generators powering every other cafe, restaurant and bar. They fail frequently, plunging customers into darkness for a few seconds at a time before snapping back on. Schools have been closed until February after authorities concluded that classrooms cannot be kept warm enough for children to attend safely. In response to the crisis, the city has opened 1,300 so called invincibility points with heated tents, rail carriages and the like. And curfews have been relaxed to allow travel to the refuge points during the freezing nights. Vitali Klitschko, Kyiv's mayor, has actually told residents to just leave if they're able to. And he said 600,000 people have already left this month, which I think is a pretty extraordinary number. The energy Minister has described the situation as the most severe energy crisis since the winter of 20. And outside of Ukraine, the EU is also trying to help. The European Commission announced yesterday that it will allocate 145 million euros. So that's 125 million pounds in emergency humanitarian aid to help people suffering. They're also delivering emergency generators. Nearly 500 delivered this week to help restore electricity at critical facilities, and a further 500 set to be deployed in the coming days.
- [17:08]
Dom Knowles
Yeah, crikey. Terrible, terrible. Now connected to all this, Venetia, Marco Rubio. Let's just have a look at him for a moment. He Said, I'm not sure yesterday or the night before. But he said, quote, it could be argued that the United States and Ukraine have finalized security guarantees. Right? Could be argued. I'd like to know if they have or they haven't. He also said the US Will play a key role in security guarantees for Ukraine. To which I say, well, you know, you either are the guarantor or you're not. I don't know what a key role means. And Marco Rubio also noted that there is a general consensus on the possible deployment of a small contingent of European troops to Ukraine with US Support. So, look, hardly the cast iron security guarantees I think Ukraine was hoping for with the Americans. What on earth is going on?
- [17:56]
Venetia Rainey
Yeah, I mean, you're quite right to pull these comments out. This was Rubio speaking during a Senate hearing on Wednesday. I think it's the usual chestnut of Russia mudging the waters, or it's just a case of that nothing's agreed until everything's agreed. Rubio also said during that Senate hearing that there was one remaining item at issue in the talks, which was Russia's demand for control of all of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, including the part now controlled obviously by Ukraine. He said, it's still a bridge we haven't crossed. It's still a gap, but at least we've been able to narrow down the issue set to one central one, and it will probably be a very difficult one. As you previously heard on this pod, Zelenskyy has described the negotiations over security guarantees as 100% done. He said Kyiv is just waiting to sign an agreement with his partners. But then all of that starts to unravel. When the Kremlin's foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov, was asked about those comments yesterday, he said in an inter interview with Russian state channel 1 that while the territory issue was the main question, there were others that were still unresolved. And when he was asked about the security guarantees the west had pledged to Ukraine, Ashakov said, no one agreed on this. So we still don't know?
- [18:55]
Dom Knowles
No, we still don't know. But as I say, with these talks coming up at the weekend, I can absolutely see Russia framing this as saying to the Americans, look, we've done everything you've asked of us. Now's the time to get them to shift on the territory question. And the others, as you say, Mr. Uszhakov, hinting out there, but what are you expecting out of these talks at the weekend?
- [19:14]
Venetia Rainey
I think hard to know what to expect. I think a lot will depend over whether this energy ceasefire really holds. I mean, how do you hold talks with someone if they're supposed to be not bombing your energy infrastructure? And they are, as temperatures dip to minus 30 degrees Celsius and you're having to empty your own capital city to keep people safe. So it's the second round of trilateral negotiations. Us, Ukraine, Russia, back in Abu Dhabi, we had some comments from Steve Witkoff, the US peace envoy speaking yesterday. He said he was hopeful and expecting that we're going to deliver a peace deal sometime soon. Apparently the talks are going to focus specifically on military contacts and efforts to monitor potential ceasefire. Again, Kremlin's Yuri Ushkov was asked about this yesterday and he was very guarded when he was asked when the talks were. He was asked whether the talks were at an advanced stage. And his response was, we held the first round of negotiations within the framework of the Security Working Groups. That's where we are. Wouldn't be drawn any further. So let's see. I think hopes are probably fairly low at this stage.
- [20:07]
Dom Knowles
And now for our regular segment with Dr. Jade McGlynn. For the latest updates on the occupied territories, over to Francis.
- [20:15]
Francis Durnley
Well, this is a first. Rather than us speaking, Jade, with you over in Kyiv or elsewhere in Europe, this time we're opposite each other in telegraph showers. It's such a privilege and a pleasure to have you here. Obviously, though, you have just come back from Kyiv and the last time that we were doing this segment together, you were talking about the just terrible, terrible conditions that, that ordinary civilians are experiencing daily there. Perhaps you can just give us a sense of the situation that you left behind a few days ago.
- [20:43]
Venetia Rainey
Sure.
- [20:44]
Dr. Jade McGlynn
And obviously very happy to be here in the studio. The conditions when I left were bad. Very cold in Kyiv, not much heating. The situation on the Left bank was considerably worse. The situation has not improved. There was even a death of an old lady, I believe a Holocaust survivor in Podil. And this weekend it's supposed to be -23 in Kyiv. So it's about to get, get even colder. I think touchwood, I'm wrong, but I think it may not be the last such death that we see. And I mean, it's a real humanitarian catastrophe unfolding and it does seem particularly acute in Kyiv. I was speaking to friends in Kharkiv last night and they have, I suppose, like, massive transportable boilers that are near the house that they often worry about because they think, oh, they're going to send a shahed. And again, touchwood, that doesn't happen. But the situation does seem especially acute in Kyiv. There have been numbers, some of which seem quite incredible, though I'm not in a position to really queer theory them of people leaving the city. And it's easy to understand why, because, you know, of course, if you're sort of youngish and healthy, that's one thing, but if you're older or if you have young children, it's really not possible to live in such conditions.
- [21:51]
Francis Durnley
Before we get to business as usual, perhaps you could just tell us what you're doing in London and some of the other trips you're making around Europe at the moment.
- [21:57]
Dr. Jade McGlynn
So I've been in London just for a few days and pretty much back to back policy meetings, briefings, things like this. And most of my focus has been on some of the policy implications, or even just some of the real world implications of the fact that the temporarily occupied territories are often discussed almost as a throwaway line in negotiations discussions, as if, dare I say it, as if real estate moguls running the negotiations. These aren't territories, you know, with people with human stories that are part of them. And so some of the aspects I've been trying to get across are first of all just the need to understand the occupation governance model and that it's not just that these lands are conquered and there are no people there. You know, in Crimea there are around three point something million. And then in the rest of the occupied territories, we estimate that there are about 3.6 million people still left there, many of whom also provide incredible insights and what in other contexts might be called intelligence onto what Russia is doing and indeed what Russian elites. I mean, the Russian elites lost a lot of money and they tried to make up for that on the occupied territory. So there's incredible insights that come from studying it. And the fear is that if America were to insist and Ukraine were to agree to just the handover of this is about talking about the unoccupied parts of Donbass, but the temporarily occupied territory, it may then also insist on having no engagement with those territories, which would lead, I think, to very dangerous intelligence loss. Particularly, let's say for us as a seafaring nation, there are a lot of ports and we might want to pay attention to that. And I'm sure that we do. The other aspect is the civilian detainees.
- [23:30]
Venetia Rainey
Which we've spoken about before on the pod.
- [23:32]
Dr. Jade McGlynn
So the minimum number is 15,250 people that her coordination HQ have been able to trace. There are many, many more than that. That's the minimum number, if we can't trace these people before, and in some hypothetical deal, the occupied territories were handed over to Russia. The chances are that those people then just disappear forever. And we're talking about possibly an additional tens of thousands of people who really can't know the numbers. And then finally, the other aspect is if Ukraine is in a position where it has to accept an unfair deal, Russia's aim is still the same, to destroy Ukraine's ability to act as a truly sovereign nation. And there are going to be some social tensions like there would be in any country if Ukraine is forced into this deal, because I'm not sure that all of the Ukrainian population have been adequately prepared for such a deal. The occupied territories play into that social tension. And certainly a great deal more effort needs to be made by, and I would say here by Ukraine's partners, because really, Ukraine has quite enough on its plate, but by Ukraine's partners to make sure every effort has been made to provide people with a clear or to help the Ukrainian MFA to provide a clear roadmap up to individuals to leave the occupied territories and to give them every single opportunity to do so, including access to funds. It's not a huge amount of money to leave, but it is if you live on the occupied territories. To me or you, it may not seem that much, but if you're pretty much unemployed in Mariupol, this is an incredible sum of money. Let's say a thousand euros or even €500.
- [25:00]
Francis Durnley
Well, thank you and obviously good luck in all of your work on this. I know that these conversations, like the ones that we have off air with, whether it be politicians or other people involved in this, these are challenging conversations to have because of the knowledge gap. Gap and sometimes the political complications. As we've talked about before together on the podcast, it's sometimes simpler to dismiss the occupied territories when you're talking about peace. Once you get into the. The reality of the humanitarian suffering, you then have a moral obligation to do certain things. So it's easier not to have a conversation if you're a politician involved in peace talks.
- [25:32]
Dr. Jade McGlynn
I agree, and I think that's why it's a very painful topic, because it is very miserable there. And I suppose if there's one thing, actually I could also add, it's that that on the basis of everything that I can see, Russia is most likely both incapable and unwilling to provide even a modicum of basic standards of living in the occupied territory, whether that's access to water, whether or not that's, you know, we're speaking about the energy blackouts in Kyiv, but you have those all of the time. I mean, in occupied Zaporizhzhia and in many other parts, the medical staffing, according to official occupation figures, is 30% in Mariupol and around 47% in Donetsk. And these again are official figures, so we can assume that they're a bit inflated. It is unable to provide even a basic standard of living. I don't think it's particularly inclined to provide one either. It's clearly incapable of actually governing these territories. And I really hope that people will look at the conditions in the occupied territories before they start to suggest that other parts, even beyond moral or humanitarian concerns, which certainly should, I would hope, would be high up, Russia is just not capable of governing this territory that it's managed to seize.
- [26:37]
Francis Durnley
That's very interesting. Well, we'll definitely return to that theme, I think, in a future episode together. But let's turn now then to the latest updates in the last couple of weeks or so.
- [26:46]
Dr. Jade McGlynn
Jade, thank you. So this is for the period between the 14th and 28th January this year, and we have 16 confirmed operations. A number took place across occupied parts of Kherson region. We also saw events in Donetsk region, in particular in Mariupol and in Crimea, in the Simferopol district. And some of the actors are Srok, who I've mentioned before. Mariupol resistance, of course, free Kherson region, who are relatively new, or at least a far rarer grouping, and anti smash. The tactics, I think, understandably, given the sheer levels of surveillance, remain pretty low signature, but also pretty reproducible and repeatable. So IEDs against vehicles and facilities, and in some cases closer to the frontline, short raids against observation posts and small units. So, for example, on 14 January, in Nova Kakhovka, near where of course the dam was located, there was an arson at a vehicle lot for a business that was run by collaborators. On 22 January, again on the left bank of Kherson region, there was a raid on a Russian observation post that led to injuries, potentially deaths, but I can't confirm that. So we're starting to see a few more of these kind of hit and go actions, which are interesting and clearly linked into the broader war effort, because it's about degrading local surveillance and also consuming certain manpower into Donetsk region, as nobody from Mariupol would like me to say it. On 15 January, in Mariupol, an unknown person, and long may they stay unknown, set fire to a new mortgage building. So Just as a reminder for listeners in Mariupol, you have housing that is compensation for housing that was lost during the siege. There's not very much of that. And more often you have mortgage housing which is either newly built or sometimes housing that's just been confiscated from residents. And the price is actually a really extortionate high. I was talking about it earlier. It's $114,000 is the average price for a one bedroom flat in Mariupol, which you can imagine is ridiculously high. But the mortgages are very favorable. So 2% interest and a 10% deposit, which compared to your 30, sometimes even almost 40% interest rates in Russia, is obviously designed to attract newcomers in Crimea. On the 20th of January, in a place called Hvardisque, around Simferopolis, the city of Simferopol, Antismerge set fire to a communications tower. This in particular was related to critical communications. And Crimea plays a very important role in terms of the rerouting of Internet traffic so that it all fits into the various Russian systems so that the FSB can monitor everything easier. But this also in particular complicated certain aspects of Russian command and control and of course delayed response to, to other incidents, as well as the kind of the visible outage that shakes, I think the normalization that Russia tries to impose on all of the occupied territories, but in particular because Crimea has been occupied for so very long, is often able to impose in Crimea and that the Ukrainians habitually punctuate.
- [29:55]
Francis Durnley
Well, thank you, Jade, as ever and Ilya, you're never forgotten. Ilya, Jade, it's always a pleasure to talk to you. I know how valued it is by listeners around the world and so on their behalf, since we're in person today, thank you as ever, for all of your efforts in this area. And I would point listeners to your brilliant report that we talked about last week looking on this subject. And so thank you again.
- [30:15]
Dr. Jade McGlynn
Thank you, thank you to you and thank you to everyone at the Telegraph and of course, thank you to the listeners.
- [30:21]
Dom Knowles
But let's talk now to Sophia. Sophia, Yan, haven't chatted for a while. Delighted to have you back. You've written an article about how China is helping Putin build his deadliest new weapon. Talk about that in a moment. But just very keen on your view, if I'm able to. You're in Istanbul, I think, right now, so a bit keen on the mood in Turkey right now about the war in Ukraine and the quote unquote, the peace process. Sophia, any noses put out of place in Turkey as Abu Dhabi now seems to be the venue for peace talks these days. Welcome back.
- [30:53]
Sophia Yan
Hi, Dom. Thanks for having me on. Well, you know, Turkey did host a number of rounds of these peace talks, talks, but they didn't go anywhere. It was in some ways a little bit embarrassing for Ankara to have extended this invitation to hold and to host the talks and the negotiations. But again, of course, they didn't go anywhere. But then of course, you've got Trump coming in, bigfooting everybody over this, trying to have his way, other regional players getting into the mix. You know, in terms of Turkey, they've got a lot of, outside of what's going on with Russia and Ukraine on their plate. They're dealing right now with Kurdish issues in Syria, for instance, something that we can speak about another time. So they've got a lot on the agenda right now and in a way it's almost better that this is being now handled elsewhere.
- [31:42]
Dom Knowles
Yeah, indeed. But also they do have Russia's shadow fleet tankers hugging the coastline as they sort of try and creep out of the Black Sea without getting whacked. But some, some of them have been hit very, very close to Turkey's shore. Has that caused any ripples in the, in the sort of common terror in Istanbul?
- [31:57]
Sophia Yan
You know, it's interesting because Turkey has found even Russian drones, suspected Russian drones, there were at least three incidents like this in December. And so they are right in the middle of it. And as you say, if they have this Black Sea coastline for Turkey, really in their mind, it would just be bright if everything could calm down. Because like I said, they have a lot that they're dealing with right now, themselves in the Middle east, other issues, countries that they have had a stronger hand in. And so if there could just be one less thing that Ankara needs to be thinking about, that would just be, you know, it would be fantastic news.
- [32:31]
Dom Knowles
I think we all share those concerns. Now onto the story that we've got running today and we'll put a link in the episode notes. So this is the Areeshnik and you say that China is critical in the production of this nuclear capable hypersonic missile that Putin keeps using to try and threaten the West. What is China up to here? So for fear?
- [32:49]
Sophia Yan
Well, China is critical in helping Russia build a lot of its military might. Some of the stories I've done before looked at specific parts and components that China was sending over to Russia that Russia would then assemble. What I've done now is to look at the machine tools that China's sending. And this is important because These are specialized manufacturing machine tools that Russia can use to make missiles like the Ereshnik, which can and has hit Europe within minutes. Now, in the first three years of war, China sent more than $3 billion worth of such machine tools. In total, there's A list of 50 kinds of items that dozens of countries have signed up to bar the export of to Russia. And that monetary figure of all those items that China sent over is $10.3 billion. So these are things that Russia most desperately needs to maintain and even to expand its war machine, to expand its defense prediction. And this is everything. Armored tank tanks, ballistic missiles, the list goes on and on. Long term, what China is doing is essentially supporting Russia to boost its self sufficiency. It helps Russia to insulate from global sanctions and it ensures that Moscow can maintain and to continue its defense production. And again, to build out and to build up defense production. This potentially means that they could fight in Ukraine for a much longer period of time than it already has. It also raises questions about what this means for Russia's ability to fight future wars. And this is damaging to think about in the long term. And what China is doing is very different than, say, other partners like Iran sending artillery shells. I keep saying this as a way to talk about a story, which is to think about it as of China sending fertilizer or farming equipment to help grow orange grows, while partners like Iran are saying crates of oranges. Things and items that can be quickly depleted on the battlefield. But in real life warfare, we're talking about, about deadly weapon systems rather than just ammunition.
- [34:48]
Francis Durnley
Yeah.
- [34:49]
Dom Knowles
Now, there was a time a couple of years ago, I think, when there was a consideration that China had got a little bit bored of Russia, that this was not what they signed up for. They thought it was going to be over in three weeks. That's what they were sold by Putin. Plus, Putin then kept rattling the nuclear saber. And the occasionally sober Dmitry Medvedev will be wheeled out every now and again to threaten nuclear army. And we were told that China actually had to have a little word and say, look, just dial it down a bit, lads. You know, this is not what we're after. Seems as if they've gone 180 degrees from that again. They now seem to be back supporting and encouraging the chaos. Is that a fair assumption?
- [35:25]
Sophia Yan
What's interesting about this is that China's support for Russia, it is strong support. I mean, we see this in just what we're discussing now, that they're sending them tools to make more military kin, to build its military Might, but this is actually in Beijing self interest, because they share a very long land border, China and Russia. So if Russia falls into chaos for any reason because of what's happening in Ukraine, because of internal economic pressures, whatever that might be, if Russia is in turmoil, China is worried because they share that border, they are neighbors. So it is actually in China's interest. And this is what Beijing is after, to try to keep the status quo, whatever that is. And right now that status quo seems to be allowing Russia to keep doing what it's been doing for nearly four years with its invasion of Ukraine.
- [36:10]
Dom Knowles
Yes, but they may also, China may also be calculating, Xi Jinping might be thinking, amid all this chaos, who knows what Donald Trump's going to come up with next. But we do know that he's not going to be there in three years time unless there's a massive constitutional change. So, you know, I'm properly parking my tanks on the lawn of Battle Lines here, so thank God nobody from the Battle Lines team is listed listening. But, you know, what do you think the chances of Xi Jinping pulling forward, plans to have a go at Taiwan whilst there is this chaos? And whilst there's the disruptor in chief in the White House, is it more likely that something's going to happen in Taiwan or less, because of all the chaos that's going on with Trump in.
- [36:47]
Sophia Yan
The White House, there have been a lot of precedents broken in terms of what he's been willing to do that does, in a way lay the groundwork for China to act. It gives them more space by which to make excuses for what it might do. If you look at what Chinese media has been reporting lately, they've been using terms like the Taiwan held islands, you know, things like this. So it's like clearly language that they're setting up to give the specter of an invasion to take back land that's theirs. And that is again, Beijing's perspective. Not at all, of course, Taiwan's perspective. But I would underscore that, as I said about Beijing with its self interest when it comes to Russia, the same, same goes for Taiwan. China and Xi Jinping will act when it feels that it is best for Beijing, when it's best for Xi, what the parameters are for that decision, what sort of situation would be considered ideal for Xi, that's something that's very unclear. But again, it will only happen when Xi Jinping thinks that this is going to be beneficial to him and to China. So the timeline may be maybe, maybe not. In terms of asking the question of whether it's sped up. But I would say that in the long run because of all the bombastic things that we've seen from the US and across the world, a lot of, you know, the international rules based world order is changing and that gives China and other states like China more room to run.
- [38:13]
Dom Knowles
And of course, if folks want to have a real deep dive into the psychology of Xi Jinping and where he comes from and possibly how his worldview is, is, is shaped, they should check out your brilliant series. Is it how to Make a Dictator or the Making of a Dictator? Forgive me, what name of your series please, Sofia?
- [38:29]
Sophia Yan
How to Become a Dictator, which I'm sure Xi Jinping does not like. I'm sure it's not his favorite choice of title, but it is apt to describe what it's about.
- [38:39]
Dom Knowles
Absolutely. Well, we will put a link to that in our episode notes as well because that was an absolutely brilliant four part series, wasn't it? It was absolutely terrific. Yeah. How to Become a Dictator later. Thanks, Sophia. Again, do stick around if you're able to stick around. For final thoughts, let's now turn to Roland Oliphant. Roland, thanks for hanging around. Tell me about the Witch of Conertop.
- [38:57]
Roland Oliphant
Yes, it's good to be back, Dom. I very luckily got to go to the theater the other day. I was invited very short notice to the Hackney Empire in London where I saw a play called the Witch of Connotop, a Ukrainian play by the Ivan Franco National Academic Drama Theater. And it was, was frankly wonderful.
- [39:14]
Dom Knowles
Well, why don't you then tell us guys a bit more about it, Roland?
- [39:18]
Roland Oliphant
So the Witch of Konotop, it was a very, very Ukrainian story. In fact, the Witch of Konotop is a story about a witch from Konotop, which is a town in the Sumy region. So that's the northeastern region. It is one of the regions that borders Russia. It was written down by Grigory kvitka Osnavianko in 1833. Now he's one of the pioneers years. They're one of the first writers who really used Ukrainian as a literary language. He, like many Ukrainian writers who's from Kharkiv, he started off writing in Russian, but he was one of the first people to start saying, well, hold on, actually I'm going to try writing in Ukrainian. And he wrote down this story which he may have made up or it may have been a folktale that he recorded. It's very much a comedy. It's about Cossacks in Konotop. There's Two rather bumbling main characters. One's the head of the local brigade of Cossacks, the other one his secretary. And they are summoned to Chernihiv, actually, which followers of the podcast probably know well for a military drill, possibly for a war. They decide they don't want to go, so they, they make up an excuse and they. They send a letter saying, no, we've got much more important things to do. We have to run a witch hunt. So promptly they run a witch hunt and they drown several young women until they find a woman who floats, who admits she is the witch. And then they begin to ask her for favors instead of doing away with her. And as you might expect, everything for them goes terribly wrong. And everybody who actually accepts the witch's health ends up suffering terribly. It's written in the kind of slapstick comedy style of some kind of 18th century comedies. I mean, if people have read Nikolai Gogol's Government Inspector, you can see a similar kind of kind of thing. But this production is really wonderful. It's funny, it's musical, it's got some wonderful Ukrainian coral singing in it. It's also very frightening at times, actually. And the. The actress who plays the witch was really mercurial, kind of schizophrenic. She was incredibly good at going from being reasonable and nice to being really, really evil at times. Kind of challenging. You know those scenes from the Exorcist with that. That absolutely horrible, scary voice and all of that. So it was. I highly recommend it. There was only one night in London. They went to Dublin the next night. I don't actually have to hand the list of the next international touring dates, but there are some more around Europe. So if you're able to give it a quick Google. The Witch of Konotop, produced by the Van Franco Theatre, I think. And you should find their dates around Europe very much worth a watch. It is all in Ukrainian. They did have some subtitles in English. I definitely think my rather shaky grasp of Ukrainian helped me a little bit there. I'm not sure if you were just relying on the subtitles, whether you'd get everything, but the performances were. Is so striking. I really, really recommend going to have a watch. It was an absolute full house in London. Almost all of the audience, Ukrainians. There was a big, big auction at the end to raise money for drones for the Ukrainian armed.
- [42:26]
Raj
Hey, it's Raj and Noah.
- [42:28]
Noah
And we're back with a new season of Am I Doing It Wrong? The show that explores the all too human anxieties we have about trying to get our lives right because we're still.
- [42:35]
Raj
Doing a lot of stuff wrong.
- [42:37]
Noah
But who isn't? That's why each week we're talking about the topics that we could all use a little helping hand with. Whether it's making new friends as an adult, managing our emotions, or even dreaming.
- [42:45]
Raj
We'll be talking to experts in their fields who are definitely doing things right so the rest of us can be a bit wiser and a lot better equipped to handle whatever life throws at us.
- [42:54]
Noah
Subscribe now and listen to new episodes of Am I Doing It Wrong? Dropping every Thursday starting January 1st, wherever you get your podcasts.
- [43:02]
Raj
And for the first time ever, we're gonna have full video episodes on YouTube because as long as there are things to get wrong, we're gonna be right here to help you do em better.
- [43:10]
Roland Oliphant
Love y'.
- [43:11]
Dom Knowles
All.
- [43:12]
Noah
Lunch was great, but this traffic is awful.
- [43:15]
Dom Knowles
Um, can we stop at a bathroom?
- [43:16]
Dr. Jade McGlynn
Are you alright?
- [43:17]
Sophia Yan
I keep having stomach issues after eating, like diarrhea, gas and bloating, abdominal pain, and sometimes oily stools.
- [43:24]
Venetia Rainey
Sound familiar? Those stomach issues may actually be a pancreas issue called exocrine pancreatic insufficiency, or epi. Creon pancrelipase may help manage epi. Creon is a prescription medicine used to treat people who can't digest food normally because their pancreas doesn't make enough enzymes.
- [43:41]
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- [44:10]
Sophia Yan
Epi and if Creon could help.
- [44:12]
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- [44:55]
Dom Knowles
Let's go to Final Thoughts Venetia, do you want to kick us off? Got any final thoughts?
- [44:58]
Venetia Rainey
Yeah, I've got some final thoughts. But first, just something a bit more newsy. I wanted to flag some interesting comments from Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban, which I just spotted while I was scouring the blogs while we've been recording. So you guys will have been aware that Zelenskyy has been touting 2027 as a potential year for Ukraine to join the EU. Orban appears to have confirmed that. He said that during the last EU summit, European leaders were given a document describing Brussels plans to ad Ukraine in 2027. But as listeners all know, he's long been solidly opposed to Ukraine joining the eu. So there is a sting in the tail. He's claimed that the EU wants to get Ukraine in before the next seven year budget in 2028 so they can give the country money and he adds this means it will be taken away from us Central Europeans. He's reiterated his opposition to Ukraine's EU membership. He said Ukraine cannot protect Europe from Russia and would not be strengthening Europe but dragging us into war. The money that we give or want to give to Ukraine should be used to develop the armies and equipment of European countries. Our line of defence against Russia is not the Ukrainian Russian border, but where the NATO border ends, said Orban. He says Ukraine should be kept in between the two blocks for safety instead. Francis has obviously reported on this in depth, but just to remind you guys, Orban is currently in the fight for his political life as his Fidesh party is trailing in the polls ahead of elections in April. So that's definitely one to keep an eye on and I'm sure we'll be hearing lots more from him in the weeks and months to come.
- [46:16]
Dom Knowles
Thanks Venetia. I did a quick search whilst you were chatting. Now this, this is unverified. This was just a quick, you know, AI driven answer, but I asked after Victor Orban's comments there about the money being taken away from us if Ukraine enters the eu. I just asked is Hungary a net contributor to the EU in terms of cash? And the answer came back that actually until late 2025 Hungary was a net importer of cash from the EU. It is now as of today, a net contributor. But that's only because a lot of the cash, cash has been turned off being sent from the EU to Hungary because of various legal mechanisms that they've not been splashing the cash on Hungary. So Hungary is now finally a net contributor to the eu, but in terms of they've taken the money away from us. Well, old Victor, sounds like you were taking money away from the rest of the EU for a very, very long time. Anyway, Roland, got any final thoughts?
- [47:07]
Roland Oliphant
Final thoughts. So that witch I was talking about, one of the reasons I really think people should go and watch it, one of the things that's been really great about this podcast since it started is that it's not just about the war. It's been been an opportunity to learn more about that part of the world, about the culture, about what people think, and just really rich discussions I've definitely been part of over the past four years on this space about, you know, things as varied as the landscape and the language and the literature and so on. I remember, you know, know, the old David Knowles was really interested in that kind of thing. This is a big part of Ukrainian literature in a way. Just a couple of. A couple of little anecdotes to make it relevant. So each chapter of the book begins with the phrase sad and gloomy smoothie. I apologize for my pronunciation. It's become a bit of a famous saying in Ukraine. But also she's kind of been. This witch has been resurrected since the war began. So There was a 2024 horror film about the witch returning and using her powers to take revenge on. On the Russian invaders. But perhaps more famously, there is a video from the first months of the war, from March or April, when the Russians briefly occupied Conotop as an old woman saying to a Russian soldier on top of a tank, don't you know where you are? This is Konotop. Every second woman here is a witch. Starting from tomorrow, you'll never have an erection again. Which got a lot of play at the time. But once again, you know, it's been a real opportunity, this podcast and also going to that play to learn more about Ukraine and Ukrainian culture. And if I could just leave you with a slightly less positive thing, Dom, I know you've covered this really, really well on the podcast daily. I hadn't really been keeping up to date with Ukraine. I've been, you know, working on all those other things going on around the world. But I did manage to speak to a couple of friends in Kiev just the day he told me just how horrible this winter campaign has been. I just wanted to read what one of one of my friends said said it's not just a physical tone, it's a psychological one. I stayed for 40 hours in my place. She lives in a high rise apartment block, so several floors up where it was minus 15. I didn't have electricity or water. You cannot flush the toilet, you cannot take a shower, you cannot make warm food. Everything is dark outside so it feels like the end of the world when you look out your window. So you have to put a lot of effort into not going mad. So it really has been a horrible period of time this winter in Kiev and I am conscious that it has perhaps fallen from the headlines a little. So I just wanted to flag that and to note that that's all from me. Dom thank you.
- [49:53]
Dom Knowles
Ukraine the Latest is an original podcast from the Television Telegraph created by David Knowles to support our work and stay on top of all of our Ukraine news, analysis and dispatches from the ground. Please subscribe to the Telegraph. You can get one month free then two months for just one pound at www.telegraph.co.uk the latest deploying cutting edge technology, we also release Ukrainian and Russian versions of this podcast. These translations retain our voices and delivery so that it can reach listeners in every region of Ukraine and those parts of Eastern Europe where Russian is still widely spoken. Links to those can be found in the podcast description to this episode. You can also now sign up to the New Ukraine, the latest weekly newsletter. Each week Francis and I answer your questions, provide recommended reading and give exclusive analysis and behind the scenes insights plus maps of the front lines and diagrams of weapons weapons to complement our daily reporting. It's free for everyone including non subscribers. You can find the link to sign up in the descriptions for this episode. We regularly have a Ukraine Lifeblood on our website where you can follow updates as they come in throughout the day, including insights from regular contributors to this podcast. We also do the same for other breaking international stories. If you appreciate our work, please consider following Ukraine the latest on your preferred podcast app and leave us a review as it really helps others find the show. Please also share it with those who may not be aware we exist. You can also get in touch directly to ask questions or give comments by emailing ukrainepodelegraph.co.uk we continue to read every message. You can also contact us directly on X. You'll find our handles in the description for this episode. As ever, we're especially interested to hear where where you're listening from around the World Ukraine. The latest was today, produced by Rachel Porter. Executive producers are Francis Durnley, Louisa Wells, and David Knowles.
- [51:51]
Roland Oliphant
My name is David Knowles.
- [51:53]
Dom Knowles
Thank you all for listening.
- [51:54]
Ad Voice (Creon/LifeLock Ads)
Goodbye.
- [52:04]
Noah
Hey, it's Raj and Noah, and we're back with a new season of Am I Doing It Wrong? The show that explores the all too human anxieties we have about trying to get our lives right.
- [52:13]
Raj
Because we're still doing a lot of stuff wrong.
- [52:15]
Noah
But who isn't? That's why each week we're talking about the topics that we could all use a little helping hit with. Whether it's making new friends as an adult, managing our emotions, or even dreaming.
- [52:24]
Raj
We'Ll be talking to experts in their fields who are definitely doing things right. So the rest of us can be a bit wiser and a lot better equipped to handle whatever life throws at us.
- [52:32]
Noah
Subscribe now and listen to new episodes of Am I Doing It Wrong? Dropping every Thursday starting January 1st, wherever you get your podcasts.
- [52:40]
Raj
And for the first time ever, we're going to have full video episodes on YouTube. Because as long as there are things to get wrong, we're going to be right here to help you do them better.
- [52:48]
Roland Oliphant
Love y'.
- [52:49]
Francis Durnley
All.
- [52:50]
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