← Ukraine: The Latest
Ukraine: The Latest
EU dismisses 'sham' offer for Putin’s 'buddy' to mediate Ukraine peace talk
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- [00:04]
Dom Nicholls
The telegraph.
- [00:10]
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- [00:29]
Joe Barnes
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Mykola Beliskov
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Joe Barnes
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Mykola Beliskov
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- [00:57]
Joe Barnes
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- [01:35]
Dom Nicholls
I'm Dom Nicholls and this is Ukraine. The latest Today as the final day draws to a close of the ceasefire supposedly brokered by the US to see Russia's victory day parade on Saturday pass unflamingoed, we ask what happened to the supposed prisoner swap that have been part of the deal. We hear what it was like to watch the parade live in Russia, albeit from the Estonian side of the international border. And we ask Estonia's Prime Minister and a Ukrainian defence analyst what the weekend's events, or lack thereof, tells us about the state of the war today. We also hear updates on the work of the Comeback Alive Charity, the organization securing battle winning technology for Ukraine and a firm favourite of this podcast creator, David Knowles.
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Mykola Beliskov
Bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with victory. The Russia does not want peace. If I'm president I will have that war settled in one day.
- [02:40]
Dom Nicholls
24 hours we are with you. Not just today or tomorrow, but for 100 years.
- [02:50]
Mykola Beliskov
On Ukraine.
- [02:51]
Joe Barnes
Nobody's going to break us. We're strong. We're Ukrainians.
- [02:57]
Dom Nicholls
It's Monday the 11th of May, four years and 76 days since the full scale invasion began. And today I'm joined by the Telegraph's Brussels correspondent Joe Barnes and defense analyst Mykola Beliskov. So after Friday's recording, it was announced that the US had brokered a three day ceasefire for Saturday, Sunday and Monday. So Russia's victory day parade went ahead on May 9 in a piece of political theatre or trolling, take your pick. President Zelenskyy issued a formal decree permitting the parade, a move that had the Russian mill blogger community fuming. Then as heavily trailed. The parade was a pretty pared down affair. Troops only, no great display of equipment. Putin later said that he had excluded military equipment to allow his forces to focus on the final defeat of Ukraine. North Koreans were on parade. Slovakia's Robert Fico was not, although he was in Moscow and had a meeting with Putin. And a veteran of the Ukraine war was placed next to Putin on the stage. Mr. Putin gave his usual speech. The whole thing was over in 45 minutes. There were no interruptions, no need for the rocket propelled grenade launchers that were being openly displayed by troops in the vicinity of Red Square. Maybe in the event of suicide car bombers or something, nobody knows. Putin then went round the back of the Kremlin to lay a wreath again, as per the usual template at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. Now, our man Joe Barnes, whilst not there exactly was able to see some reaction from inside Russia, watching from across the River Narva in Estonia. And we'll hear his reaction shortly. Then later on Saturday, responding to a question during a press conference about the war, Putin said this matter is coming to an end, although I don't think we should read any great hope into that about an imminent peace or even that the ceasefire will be extended beyond tonight. Just on that, it's worth noting, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during a visit to Italy, said on Friday U.S. efforts to broker peace in Ukraine have stagnated. He said we've tried to play a mediator role in that. So far it has not led to a fruitful outcome. For a variety of reasons, we remain prepared to play that role if it can be productive. And while we're prepared to play whatever role we can to bring it to a peaceful diplomatic resolution, unfortunately we right now those efforts have stagnated. But we always stand ready if the circumstances change. President Zelenskyy last week, if you'll remember, said he expects US envoys to visit Kyiv this summer. They've yet to go to Ukraine. They have been to Russia eight times, so, you know, one can hope. Now, there was also supposed to be a swap of a thousand prisons of war from each side, apparently brokered by the United States. That didn't happen and there has been some confusion as to why not and what's going to happen next. All weekend. President Zelensky, in somewhat punchy terms, directed at the US Perhaps reflecting an interesting shift in that relationship, said yesterday the prisoner exchange, a thousand for a thousand, is being prepared and must take place. The Americans assumed responsibility for these guarantees. Ukraine's coordination headquarters has handed over the list of 1,000 prisoners of war to the Russian side. There was American mediation in reaching this agreement on the exchange and accordingly we expect the American side to play an active role in ensuring it's fulfilled. As I said, quite interesting words there for the United States. Now a contact in Ukraine's coordinating headquarters for prisoners exchanges told me earlier today negotiations about the thousand are in progress. Putin manipulates every time to target us. It will be done soon. Also, we are continuing contacts regarding our usual non political smaller swaps. Now, as expected, there was no real move on the ground over the weekend, although Ukrainian and Russian officials reported breaches of the three day ceasefire, which as I say is due to end tonight. Over the weekend, strikes in Ukraine were down, but drones, artillery and glide bombs continued to be used. There was one person killed and 19 injured on Saturday. Three killed, 16 injured yesterday. Now to get an idea of how the parade was received in Russia, we had our man Joe Barnes on the ground just across the Narva river in in eastern Estonia. He watched the spectacle and then interviewed Estonia's Prime Minister, Christian Michal. Joe, you were there. What was it like? What did you see? How did the crowd react? Did they go mad for you and or Putin? But yeah, how was Estonia, Joe?
- [07:14]
Joe Barnes
Good to be back in Brussels after traveling as close to the Russian border as I've ever been and enough for my phone to pick up. Russian phone signals are truly fascinating. I've had to go and get it checked out today to make sure I've not come home with any FSB bugs. So for some context, I traveled down to Narva from Tallinn on Friday afternoon, got up, went and checked out the the riverside because on one side of the river, the Russian side, in even g the Russian city on the border, they had set up one large television screen pointing directly into Estonia and then one stage with another screen also pointing in the direction of Estonia, but this time with some seats. So this one of the video screens was deliberately set up so people on the Estonian side of the border would be able to watch it. So after sort of spending my night in and around Narva in a sort of lovely hotel because for context it's a coastal resort, it's right next to the sea, it's a spa Town, essentially. So all the hotels have sort of beautiful spas and saunas, just the usual
- [08:24]
Dom Nicholls
Joe Barnes presidential suite, hot and cold running servants, that kind of thing.
- [08:28]
Joe Barnes
I was next, the presidential suite, but I, I wasn't, I wasn't allowed entry to it.
- [08:32]
Dom Nicholls
I'm slumming it. Do you want me to have a word with the expenses people?
- [08:35]
Joe Barnes
Don't. I know, I know.
- [08:36]
Dom Nicholls
Leave it with me, Joe.
- [08:37]
Joe Barnes
You really should.
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Dom Nicholls
Awful oversight.
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Joe Barnes
But anyway, on, on, on, on Saturday morning we went up to see Nava Castle, which is one of the original. It's. It was built by the sort of Germanic tectonic knights back hundreds of years ago. I think it was a 13th century building, one of the two major landmarks that survived the Soviet bombing of Nava during the fight between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany over the city in the Second World War. But this castle essentially faces off with another castle in Eden Grob. And from this fantastic vantage point you could see directly over onto the Russian side. And we arrived at Narva Castle just as Vladimir Putin was giving his speech, I guess about 11 o' clock ish local time. And I took a quite an amusing picture because you could literally count the number of Russian spectators on my two hands who had sort of arrived to watch Vladimir Putin's speech and then the national anthem being played. There were actually, interestingly more people on the Estonian side watching and there is lots of, there's a. So Narbo has a very complicated history. It's 96% of its population are Russian speakers. Not to say that they are all pro Russian, but there is a, a contingent that are. But actually I went and spoke to some other journalists who were floating around and they had actually, instead of watching it from Narva Castle, they had watched it from the riverbank on the Estonian side. And they said actually a lot of the people who had gathered to watch it were actually tourists who had also made a sort of similar pilgrimage to see what it's like to watch one of these Russian Victory day parades from inside Russia, a bit from the other side of the border.
- [10:25]
Dom Nicholls
Can I just, just hold you there for a moment, Joe, and we'll introduce Mykola a little bit later, but I'll be interested in your, your view on this as well. So they've gone to all the trouble of setting up these screens very obviously for the propaganda purposes of people in Estonia, NATO in the west to watch this parade, but then didn't arrange to bus in loads of people who just sort of spontaneously decided they wanted to come and watch it. That seems so disorganized or organized on one hand and disorganized on the other. I mean, do you think that was an oversight? Was there any kind of, was it just left to the public? Was there any officialdom there at all?
- [11:04]
Joe Barnes
Joe, all you could see on because we are still sort of 100 odd meters away and I didn't bring my binoculars, unfortunately, so you could see sort of little green men who I guess were soldiers in military uniform carrying guns, sort of milling around on the border. You could see border guards and FSB guys, but I guess they would be there anyway. So. Yeah. So I think, does it not tell a story about how Putin is actually struggling inside real life Russia or on the fringes in Moscow? Obviously the, the venue, Red Square, was packed with people watching, dignitaries from all of Russia's allies across the world. But actually in, I can't, won't call it the suburbs, but we'll call it the far outer reaches of Russia, its border with NATO, there was nobody there watching his speech. I will say there was a separate sort of party and festival held later on in the evening about five or six of six o'.
- [12:00]
Mykola Beliskov
Clock.
- [12:01]
Joe Barnes
Fortunately, that was when I was with the prime Minister, so I didn't get to see it myself. But I, I, I was told that there were more people there and actually a lot of people on the Estonian side actually went down to watch it as well, because as Russian speakers and people who appreciate Russian culture, that is one of their only ways that they can actually receive that. Now, while lots of Russian propaganda channels have been banned inside the EU and
- [12:25]
Dom Nicholls
especially Estonia, so you weren't able to go to the party. Sorry about that work intruded. But you then interviewed Estonia's prime minister, new prime minister after, to go from Kai Kallis. Mr. Mr. Michal, what, what do you have to say?
- [12:39]
Joe Barnes
Yeah, so we, first of all, I sort of wanted to ask him, as the leader of Estonia, the leader on the front line of NATO's border with Russia, what his perceptions of NATO as an alliance Was NATO dead without the full support of Donald Trump? And he actually disagreed with me. He, he said, no, look, yes, there are political issues problems, but if you actually look at the, the sort of, the practical workings of NATO, such as when NATO was scrambled to intercept Russian MiG fighter jets that were flying through Estonian airspace carrying missiles, it worked, NATO worked. He said, basically what we've got is this sort of situation where actually the military aspect of NATO is working as well as it's ever worked. But we do have these political rifts. And then we got into the, the idea of spending and how do countries such as Britain where that spending isn't being ramped up as quickly as Estonia and some of the other countries on, on that eastern flank. For, for example, Estonia's budget has pledged 5.4% of its GDP towards defense this year. And I was like, how are you selling this to your people? Because obviously this money has to come from somewhere. Is it coming from education budgets, healthcare budgets, other welfare budgets? And he said, look, I'm not sure I'm doing a good job at selling it. But people in Estonia understand that that money is there to defend them from an enemy that they, they know all about. And then we got into the idea about Britain because Keir Starmer is struggling to come up with. He's pledged to get to three and a half percent, which is a NATO target coming up soon, but he's not actually set out how and when he's going to do it. So I said, are you not concerned that Britain, which has an enhanced forward presence inside Estonia, is part of its key defense and security architecture inside the country? That's for people who maybe aren't aware we have a load of troops armed with Challenger 2 tanks at Tapa military base, which is basically ready to assist Estonia if the unthinkable happens. But if you remember back when the coalition, the willing first promised to put British troops inside Ukraine to help assure and reassure Ukraine as part of any ceasefire arrangement, experts including Ben Wallace, the former Defense Minister and launch Ukraine ally, basically said, can Britain do that while fulfilling its commitments to homeland defence, Estonia, Cyprus and wherever else? But since that has happened, the Strait of Hormuz has become an issue and Britain has promised to sort of send assets there as part of a, a demining operation to keep the, keep or reopen and keep the straight of Hormuz open in the Middle East. So I, I posed this question to the estonian Prime Minister, Mr. Michal, what happens to the troops in Estonia? And he, he said, look, the UK are here to stay. We haven't received any news otherwise. But he did say that the eastern flank for NATO allies shouldn't be sacrificed because of commitments elsewhere outside of NATO, whether it be in Ukraine or in, in the Middle East. So I thought that was highly fascinating that he's basically telling people, look, we can't forget about the threat that exists on our own border while we're trying to not police the world. That's the wrong way of describing it. But while we're trying to handle all of these geopolitical crises elsewhere. And then we got into the. We got a little bit more into the idea of defense spending, which is incredible, because obviously Estonia is. Is one of the flag bearers when it comes to high defense spending. And one of the arguments that people are making is we have to spend more on defense to keep Donald Trump interested. And he actually disagreed with me. He said, no, who cares about Donald Trump when it comes to increasing defense spending? Because we may or may not keep him happy. But what we have to realize is defense spending is all about our own good. And he said, look, selfishly, I'm increasing defense spending because it protects the Estonian people. And that's how the UK Leaders, the French leaders, the German leaders all have to look at this. First and foremost, you're increasing defense spending to keep your folk at home safe. Then, coming away from NATO, we. We looked at a few other issues, and I think one of my favorite issues we looked at was the problem that the EU is facing at the moment with countries handing out Russian tourist visas. So I went down and I stood on the aptly named Friendship Bridge, which separates Narva and Even Gorod, and I was speaking to one of the top border guards and one of the policemen in charge of that crossing point. While the road traffic crossing is closed, people still walk across the bridge every day and cross into Estonia. He said as many as 2000 people a day, between 1600 and 2000 people a day cross into Estonia. But Estonia doesn't actually issue any tourist visas to Russians. They are coming from the likes of France, Spain, Italy. And actually, figures released last week showed that France's number of tourist visas in 2025 had increased by 23%. So what was interesting was I. I asked the Estonian prime minister, what do you have to say about this? And he's like, look, we have to absolutely stop giving our visas to Russians because essentially, if you live in Russia, you are a Russian. You might not be an active part of the war. But what we can't do is suddenly allow Russians to have a cozy life coming on holiday to the south of France, because most of them end up either crossing the poorer of the Russians who can't afford the flights into, say, Turkey or Dubai, and then into Europe will come via the land border that's still open, which is for Estonia. We can't give these people the freedoms to have holidays while one of our allies is under attack. So another way we should clamp down on Russia and sort of destabilize Putin from inside is by blocking tourist theaters
- [18:29]
Dom Nicholls
Is that in his gift or is that an EU thing? Does he have to get wider permission for that competence?
- [18:34]
Joe Barnes
Dom? So, essentially, well, not Emmanuel Macron personally, but Emmanuel Macron's government in France can choose to increase or decrease the amount of tourist visas that are handed out.
- [18:45]
Dom Nicholls
Oh, so, so sorry. So the Estonian Prime Minister can't stop it? In and of himself, no, he can't
- [18:52]
Joe Barnes
stop France from giving out tourist visas.
- [18:54]
Dom Nicholls
Yeah.
- [18:54]
Joe Barnes
And the Estonian border is still open to foot traffic. They could shut it entirely. But I think that what they have done is that there are people on that border who live with what are known as gray passports, where they're neither Russian and they're neither Estonian. They were left behind during the breakup of the Soviet Union, and that gray passport essentially affords them the right to live Estonia, but travel freely to Russia. And I think the Estonians, despite not liking the Russians, aren't so evil to say, we don't recognize your cultural ties with Russia, that you might have family members living on one side of the river, so we're not going to stop you from completely moving. But what they were saying is lots of the people coming over. This isn't the Estonian Prime Minister, this is a law enforcement contact that I was speaking to on the border. Were saying that it's not just movement of normal movement between sort of Estonia and even garage on the border, this is people coming with tourist visas that have been issued by other countries. And basically the Estonian Prime Minister was arguing that we should, or Europe should look at a way to crack down on this as a way to pressure Vladimir Putin. One more element from it is the Estonians are still pushing for this ban on ex combatants. So people who have fought for Russia from entering the EU after any ceasefire, they basically say that there is a potentially a million soldiers who Putin doesn't want to exist on Russian territory as some sort of Wagner 2.0, some potentially mutinous force. The Estonian viewpoint is that these people are going to be sent to Africa, to Asia and to Europe, essentially, to carry out Vladimir Putin and the Russian state's bidding after any ceasefire. So he is pushing the EU to basically adopt a plan to start banning these people from the EU from entering at all after the end of any hostilities.
- [20:46]
Dom Nicholls
Who controls the grey passports? Does both Estonia and Russia issue grey passports or is it just the Estonians?
- [20:52]
Joe Barnes
I believe it's a UN issued passport.
- [20:55]
Dom Nicholls
Okay. I'm just thinking if Russia wanted to play mischief with these combatants, no.
- [21:02]
Joe Barnes
So he couldn't. For the combatants, that's separately. That basically The Estonians and other countries in favor of this policy are basically trying to collect using intelligence to collect names and identities of people is known to be fighting for the Russian armed forces inside Ukraine. So Etc. But the, the gray passports, sort of fascinating area that we could do a deep dive into. But essentially I was speaking to an Estonian civil servant who looks at this kind of thing and he said there is a correlation where the gray passport numbers are decreasing. So essentially people are dying. They were issued at one time or another after the breakup of the Soviet Union where sort of a pocket of because one when essentially lots of Russians were bused into Navajo after the end of the Second World War to rebuild sort of the destruction that had been wrought on it. And then they ended up staying there and then those who ended up staying there but not being Russian or something, it's very complicated. Also not Estonian. So Russia basically stopped recognizing them. Estonia says well you're not Estonian so you can't have an Estonian passport. Russia basically said well you're not having a Russian passports. They were given these gray passports but that number will steadily decline over, over time. There's about 70,000 in Estonia at the moment.
- [22:13]
Dom Nicholls
Well thanks Joe. We will obviously link to your article in the episode notes. Do hang around if you're able to for final thoughts a little bit later but I'll just get on with some other diplomatic updates for now. So Andrei Sibya, Ukraine's Foreign Minister, said he's spoken to his Latvian opposite number by Bebrasia about the recent drone incidents in Latvia where a number of drones have landed in in the country. And Russia has also claimed that Latvia, along with the other Baltic states, Estonia and Lithuania, have been deliberately permitting Ukraine to use their airspace to target Russia, although Moscow has provided no evidence for that claim whatsoever and the allegation has been denied. Now Mr. Shubia said the investigations proved that this was the result of Russian electronic warfare deliberately diverting Ukrainian drones from their targets in Russia. I reaffirmed Ukraine's willingness to work together with with Baltic nations and Finland to prevent such incidents, including with the direct involvement of our specialists. Now he was responding after Latvian Defence Minister Andrei Spruz resigned yesterday after two Ukrainian drones diverted from their targets in Russia and entered Latvian airspace and hit oil facilities. Earlier last week, Prime Minister Avika Selina said that she had requested Mr. Sprudes resignation, saying that he had lost her trust and that of the public. The drone incident she said that occurred this week clearly demonstrated that the political leadership of the defence sector has failed to fulfill its promise of safe skies over our countries. Responding Mr. Spruz yesterday said today I've made the decision to step down from the position of Minister of Defence in order to protect the Latvian army from being dragged into a political campaign. I think there's probably something more domestic politics wise going on in the background. If you know, please do let us know now. The issue of Ukrainian drones landing in Baltic states is generating a bit of heat right now. Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevka has said the easiest way for the Ukrainians to keep their drones away from our territory is to better control their activities. That's obviously very hard to do in an environment saturated with electronic warfare, and that's before one considers whether or not Russia is actively trying to divert these drones into NATO airspace anyway. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Zakner has expressed concern that Russia could exploit jammed Ukrainian drones to carry out attacks on NATO territory. He said it is dangerous that Russia could take control of Ukrainian drones and send them toward us somewhere where there could also be civilian casualties. Not the last we're going to hear on that, I don't think. Now all that comes as Polish authorities on Saturday said they discovered a reconnaissance drone and near a town approximately 20 km from the border with Russia's Kaliningrad oblast. In a statement, Polish military police said preliminary findings at the scene suggest it was likely a military reconnaissance drone with no combat capabilities. Now on the theme of drones ending up in odd places, Greek authorities are investigating how a suspected Ukrainian made naval drone ended up in a cave on an island south of Corfu. Fishermen found the Magura V3 drone, reportedly with its engine still running it, in a sea cavern off the coast of Lifkada on Thursday. Ordnance disposal officers were deployed on Friday as the vessel was thought to be packed with hundreds of kilograms of explosives, but authorities later said it was only carrying detonators which were removed. The Magura 3, it's a Ukrainian designed seaborne drone, can be used for reconnaissance and strike missions, can go up to about 50 miles an hour and has a range of 500 miles. It can operate autonomously for up to 60 hours and is equipped with with satellite communication systems and real time video transmission. I mention that because it's been suggested the drone could be part of Ukraine's efforts to strike Russia's shadow fleet of tankers. You may remember in March the Arctic Metigaz, a Russian tanker, was left adrift in the Mediterranean Sea after an attack by a suspected Ukrainian seaborne drone forced the crew to abandon ship. Moscow alleged that the vessel, which was sailing under the Russian flag and carrying on over 60,000 tons of liquefied natural gas and 700 tons of diesel fuel at the time was attacked by a Ukrainian sea drone launched they say from the coast of Libya. Now a couple more for me. Today German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has arrived in Kyiv for talks on expanding defense industrial cooperation with Ukraine. Telling the DPA news agency the focus is on the joint development of state of the art unmanned systems across all ranges, particularly in in the area of deep strike. Just a couple of hours ago they've announced a new program is going to be called Brave Germany that's going to be based off and supported by Ukraine's Brave One initiative. Now Mr. Pistorius arrives. A day after Vladimir Putin suggested former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder could serve as a European mediator in peace talks. A German official told Reuters that the proposal was not credible because Russia had not changed its conditions for ending the war. According to that official, an initial test would be whether Moscow was willing to extend the three day ceasefire. We will know this time tomorrow. Now, 82 year old Gerhard Schroeder is a divisive character. He served as German Chancellor from 1998 to 2005. He's known for his work with Russian state owned companies where he reportedly earned hundreds of thousands of dollars a year for roles including serving as chairman of the board and he said German of the board, but anyway chairman of the board of Nord Stream AG and as a director of the board of Russian oil producer Rosneft. He has a very friendly relationship with Putin. Now today responding to that, the EU's foreign policy chief Kai Kallas has said first, if we give the right to Russia to appoint a negotiator on our behalf, that is the EU's behalf, that would not be very wise. And second, I think Gerhard Schroder has been a high level lobbyist for Russian state owned companies. So it's clear why Putin wants him to be the person that actually he would be sitting on both sides of the table. Now speaking to my colleague Jorg in Berlin, German officials were cool on the whole idea. They've said we've taken note of the statement, a German government source told the Telegraph, before describing it as one of a series of sham offers from the Kremlin. The source said this is part of Russia's well known hybrid strategy. However, Germany and Europe will not allow themselves to be divided. Now then, let's turn to our guests. I'm delighted to welcome back to the podcast Mykhailo Beliskov from the well number of places. National Institute for Strategic Studies. Also work with the Come Back Alive Foundation. We'll speak about those in a moment. Welcome back, Makura. Thanks for, for sitting with us and listening to Joe. Not that it's a chore, I don't mean that, don't mean it in that way. But what did you take of what he was saying about how poorly supported or attended the showing was on on Saturday in a. Is it evangerod the opposite of N in Russia?
- [28:55]
Mykola Beliskov
Yeah. Yeah. Well, I like it. I mean it's a good testament of the developments inside Russia. A good evidence that most of the people in Russia, they simply don't care about all this propaganda edifice built by Putin. And the very idea of this victory in World War II doesn't resonate anymore with Russians, basically. So the fact that two screens were installed but no one show up to see it's good evidence that people are just ignoring official propaganda. They don't care about it.
- [29:24]
Dom Nicholls
So where are we then? In your work, watching, looking, analyzing this war, where are we in spring May 2026? How do you characterize the war? Right now?
- [29:32]
Mykola Beliskov
We are in ongoing boxing match with unlimited amount of rounds and whomever would stand on his feet in the last round would eventually win. Well, overall I would say that situation stopped to deteriorate from Ukrainian side because since October, November 2023 we mostly discussed negative scenarios for Ukraine that Russia is building momentum, advancing despite paying a steep price. Right now we can say that we've seen the plateau of Russian military strategy as they devised it, relying on infiltration, relying on battlefield interdiction. And Ukraine is entering this most intense period of fight in which from May till October, more confidence than it was in 2024, 2025, given a number of technological advancements and developments.
- [30:17]
Dom Nicholls
Now, two things that have stuck out for me this year. I appreciate your view on this. Certainly last year, a little bit the year before. But certainly last year President Zelenskyy and the administration and senior military more broadly were under huge pressure on the manpower front. There was huge political pressure to lower the mobilization age below the age of 25. President Zelenskyy resisted that pressure. He wanted to to maintain that generation, to fix the country afterwards. And the idea was that technology was going to come and fill that gap so you wouldn't need such a dense human battlefield at the front that aerial drones, ground drones would be able to make up for that. Where do you feel that political pressure is now? It seems to me it's lessened slightly as drones have really shown their worth at the front line. But how much pressure do you think President Zelenskyy is still under on that front?
- [31:05]
Mykola Beliskov
Well, first of all, thanks for starting from this demographic dimension, because I think a lot of people don't understand this challenge for Ukraine. The fact that we need both to fight, exist and preserve as much people as we can. And do not scare basically people overall. The development of technologies indeed help us to compensate for the deficit of manpower. And the way battlefield changed actually work in Ukrainian favor. Because a lot of people in 2024, even 2025, written off Ukraine precisely calculating the ratio of manpower proportionate to the kilometer of the front line. And then with this saturation of strike means, with reconnaissance means people understand that you simply can't place people on a density of manpower as it was in World War I, World War II. So in certain sense, robotics rescued Ukraine and gave us a chance to fight a different war. But despite this pressure being east, you still need to have a people who do maintenance, who do guidance, who do checks. So the role of the human evolve. And thus when Zelenskyy appointed new Minister of Defense, he was tasked with a direction to recharge mobilization process. And he need to find a formula how to engage people despite the changes in tactics. And there is one idea that we may engage people, given the fact that you can guide right now UAV sitting in Kyiv or even outside of Ukraine. So yes, it's a kind of a gamification of war, but simultaneously it allow to compensate for the deficit of manpower and involving people who work from distance. If it's possible to say so the story is a bit more complicated. Yes, we try to find a way how to fight with a deficit of manpower. But simultaneously our war demonstrates that war is still human intensive. And you need to balance. Basically the major challenge for Ukraine in this case is to balance democracy and the war of attrition. And it's really a difficult task to do. It's not because of Ukrainian government, but somehow we're trying to find our own unique Ukrainian formula.
- [33:00]
Dom Nicholls
So not so much pressure on him now, or is it still a very live domestic issues, you think?
- [33:06]
Mykola Beliskov
It's still debated in Ukraine. And it's a kind of, I would say a Gordian knot. You can simply cut it because it's a democracy and you can't apply just forceful measures because you won't be legitimate. But you need to address simultaneously people concern. And there are certain people concerned and it's a feather of Tusk. There were some glimpses of the new reforms that should be presented maybe at the late of May, beginning of June. But the major problem is not again this was a surname in the office, but how you reconcile war and democracy. Because the way democracy is arranged right now is about the human being and the life of a human being. But the war is about the threat to be targeted and the associated threat of the war. So that's a major problem. There is still pressure, I would say and we still have a debate inside Ukraine how to reconcile this. And at the Comeback Alive, the charity, we believe that we can ease this process and address certain people concerns, especially when we are talking about the training. Thus we invest so much in training. So even when person is mobilized, then at least his concerns that I receive proper training and can operate proper technology and increase my chances for survival are addressed.
- [34:16]
Dom Nicholls
The second thing that's really stuck out for me in the last few months, just the months of this year, is how Ukraine is able to kind of get through this crust, if you like, of air defense at the sort of 50-200km behind the front line area. They've been able to get through that in the last few months such that they're now hitting with greater regularity Crimea. They're now. Well, we saw reports last week, we reported on about Azov saying that they are flying or showing footage that they are flying drones through Mariupol. And so that whole, that whole logistic line for Russia, the land corridor across the, across the southern coast of Ukraine, such that they don't have to rely on the Kirch Bridge to reinforce Crimea, for example, that is now in range. That is now in range and being accurately hit. How significant do you think that is?
- [35:06]
Mykola Beliskov
It's one of the explanations why we are now more confident. Yes, we made a huge progress in so called middle strike. It's a range of 20 plus kilometers to 300 kilometers and it complicates Russian logistics. It rely on Starlink because when you're using Starlink you can fly below the so called radio horizon and for classic raiders it's very difficult to detect you. So we are quite successful in attacking air defense and then created more openings for strikes which target logistics, command and control. So it's part and parcel of Ukrainian current military strategy to complicate the function of Zora and to decrease pressure on the front lines. So that's one of the major elements of our military strategy and is going to create a lot of headaches for Russia, a lot of dilemmas for Russia because it's a kind of Sin, okay, you can address it by like diverting resources, but it means that you have less resources, classic air defense for the front line. So it's a part of Ukrainian approach
- [36:00]
Dom Nicholls
To what purpose though? To reduce the pressure of the front or to open up an avenue for, I don't know, counterattack through the south or an amphibious assault onto Crimea or what's the purpose of this particular campaign?
- [36:13]
Mykola Beliskov
Right now it's more about decreasing Russian pressure on Ukrainian frontlines. Yes, in ideal situation we need to advance, we need to recover our territories to strengthen Ukrainian hands. But right now it's more modest goal to deny Russia ability to move freely to reinforce their grouping of forces. But who knows what would happen next. Right now it's more about decreasing pressure and creating more dilemmas for Russian air defense.
- [36:36]
Dom Nicholls
Now overall, what do you think Ukraine's theory of victory is at the moment? How are they going to solve this problem and do you think it's realistic what they're proposing?
- [36:47]
Mykola Beliskov
Well, first of all, we need to arrest Russian advances on the front line. And everything we discussed before this robotic revolution's advances in middle strike, in unmanned ground vehicles, in air defense by means of UAVs is very instrumental in this. Plus strategic strike, so called. We see the string of sustained strikes that affect oil processing, oil export, military industrial complex, plus actions against shadow fleet. Basically. So everything combined intense pressure plus signals out of Europe, sustained commitment toward Ukraine because it's not only kinetic dimension, it's also political dimension. And when Putin sees that Ukraine has long term European support despite us switching to a kind of a mediator, it's a good signal. And then maybe sustaining this pressure to the moment where Putin understand that trying to advance is futile. So I think we need to be cautious in this regard because Putin is living his own wonderland and thinking that in this contest of willpower, the time is on the Russian side. The democracies are inherently weak, fragmented, and that's a problem. Despite all the negative developments for Russia right now, both on the front line and in terms of defense of the rare areas and problems with the shadow fleet, he might still think that if he is just pressuring Ukraine, eventually he would be able to impose this will. So that's a major problem both for Ukrainian leadership and for leadership of the countries which support Ukraine.
- [38:10]
Dom Nicholls
You mentioned the shadow fleet a couple of times there. I'd say the European response has been inconsistent regarding the shadow fleet. We've seen France and Sweden boarding tankers. We've seen Britain not taking huge action. When such things go up and down the English Channel, albeit they are now escorted by Russian military means. They might take the view that it's. That it could escalate in an unhelpful manner. But I mean, what's the view from Ukraine about Europe's response to some action taken against Shadow fleet some places and action not being taken in other areas?
- [38:43]
Mykola Beliskov
Well, the major problem is that you need to build a legal case for this because we have this freedom of navigation and thus Ukraine tried to address this problem on its own. So when we attack Primorskust Luga in Baltic, it means that no matter the action of our partners, this mixed response, we increase pressure on Russia on our own because again, we understand the limits. We'd like our partners to do much more than they are doing right now, but we try to do on our own what our partners can do.
- [39:11]
Dom Nicholls
Do you think Ukraine is going after those land sites, Oslogo Primorsk, as you say? We see what happened at Tarapsi over the last few weeks more because they've taken the view they can't rely on European action ships underway, or would they have done it anyway?
- [39:28]
Mykola Beliskov
I think indirectly it's the proof that we understand the limits of our partners and we try to do on our own what we can. And yes, the oil export infrastructure is a kind of a bottleneck. So it's limited, it's easy to locate geographically and it's about limiting whatever revenue, additional revenue Russia can get out of this situation in the Middle East. So to a certain extent, yes, we try to address it on our own as our partners. Still debating the response and trying to have an agreement.
- [39:56]
Dom Nicholls
Now shifting tacks slightly, if I may. I said at the start, you also work for the Come Back Alive charity. That was a charity that was very much supported by David, can you reintroduce the charity, please, for those of our listeners and viewers who might not have heard of Come Back Alive before, Just explain a little bit about the charity and what the current priorities are.
- [40:15]
Mykola Beliskov
Well, Come Back Alive exists for 12 years. Actually just recently, it's 10th of May, we celebrated the 12th anniversary of establishment of Comeback Alive. So we exist the same duration of time aggression against Ukraine, Russian aggression is going on and the idea is to support Ukraine defense forces with tangible and intangible support. So we raise money both inside and outside Ukraine. And last year we made a huge leap forward in engaging foreign government money. And then we procure different kind of hardware like UAVs, like pickups, like radio stations. So everything that is missing in terms of government to government aid. So These bigger items supplied by our partner governments work properly. And we also support like number of training centers within Ukrainian armed forces. Because it's one thing to provide hardware, but it's also necessary to ensure that hardware provided is used properly. So we preach a kind of a like comprehensive approach, both tangible support plus training. And we are the biggest one. We are not the only one, but we are the biggest one. We raise more than $1 billion overall since 21st of February 2022.
- [41:25]
Dom Nicholls
Now how does that fit in to the model of the likes of Brave One? And this announcement today by as I said, Boris Pistorius is in Kyiv today and they've announced a joint mash up Ukraine Germany, this new entity called Brave Germany which is, I mean how would you characterize that? Because that's not you. A lot of charities doing great things, providing stuff, buying vehicles, providing kit and equipment. But Brave 1 is a level above that and it didn't always exist. That's why the charity sector sort of exploded in the first couple of years. And now you've got Brave Germany. So how do you see the likes of come back alive fitting into that much more organized and supported, financially and politically supported entity of Brave 1, Brave Germany, that kind of thing?
- [42:08]
Mykola Beliskov
Well, that's a bit different role because Brave One, Brave Germany, it's a defense accelerator. There is a period between like an idea and some mature technology you need to support. So called Death Valley basically. And that was the rational when Brave One was created in 2023. And now it's about involving German money basically and involving German entities in R and D project. And it's good because we need to look for industrial partners, international partners, because there are always limit beyond which even like Germany and other states that support UKRA defense forces Ukraine military industrial complex with their own money, they can't support it any further. So we need to look for different models, how to make it suitable and of major interest, both for Ukraine, for our partners, so they can spend more of their money. So Kambak Alayv is procuring the stuff that already proved its capability. In certain sense, yes. We also indirectly support the work of Ukraine military industrial complex. But usually we procure the stuff that demonstrated its capability, demonstrated performance. We can't risk the money of those people who support us, individuals, entities, foreign governments for the technologies that have some promise but didn't prove itself. So that's a difference. It's good to have defense accelerator field reinforced with German infusion of money. But we're in a different league. So we are Ready to support these items when they prove themselves when like Bray one did its job.
- [43:28]
Dom Nicholls
Yeah, I mean I remember that from my time in the military. The so called Valley of Death whereby you can have a brilliant idea and you can build a concept demonstrator and you can fly it around on range and you get a load of politicians and military come down and see this amazing whizzy thing go, fantastic. But then actually getting it into production and scaling it into the thousands and the millions and finding money behind that and training regimes and infrastructure and all the rest of it, that's very, very hard. And getting from the small concept demonstrator into an actual supported capability at the front line that that Valley of Death there has seen many projects and programs fail in, in the British, in my experience with the British, British military. So do you think Brave One has been able to leap that value of death and is it now easier to do that? They're more better understood so it's more able to attract investment and investment that's not going to be wasted and fall into the valley, but will actually turn into capability on the far side.
- [44:23]
Mykola Beliskov
Well, being honest, I'm not that very familiar with your work. I mean I know the basics. So it's very good overall to have this entity because before 2023 we didn't have this kind of entity. It's good to have Ukrainian entity, it's good to have partnership with Germany because first additional money can be brought and there is a major problem that actually Ukraine military industrial complex engage only like millions of direct investments. It's not enough. It should be billions of investment to properly support different projects. So that's good that they involve foreign partners, but otherwise again we're in a bit different league and come back alive. So we are ready to support an item when it proved its capability at the training range, at a testing range, because before that we simply can't waste the money of people who support us. So when for instance the idea of FPV first emerged, it was 2023. So when we've seen that it's working so we were the first one who procured like back at the time, quite a meaningful package. It was like 10, 15,000 of FPV drones. Now it's laughable because Ukraine entities produce 4 million of FPVs a but back at the time it was quite meaningful. So we supported specific technology when it become obvious that it performs and it
- [45:39]
Dom Nicholls
has its role at the battlefield and just funny what. So what's the next thing then? Because I hear that the number of Fiber optic controlled FPV drones are starting to tail off. So still using their thousands every day, but just starting to tail off. And I wonder firstly why. I wonder if that's. I don't know. I don't know why. But better countermeasures to the wire perhaps, and what's coming next?
- [46:02]
Mykola Beliskov
Well, the major reason why fiber optics is reaching the peak of its efficiency is the price of guidance. So it's constantly increasing the price of
- [46:11]
Dom Nicholls
the actual fiber optic cable. Yeah, I hear that's gone up like fivefold over the last couple of years.
- [46:15]
Mykola Beliskov
That's a major problem. And now you have a situation when it's easier to procure Starlink mini and install it and it can be jammed and again it's more suitable for long range attacks. So we have a situation when some other technology appear. And now a lot of people invest and bet on this satellite communication, satellite guidance. It gives you bigger range, it gives you advantage and it's not as pricey as fiber optics.
- [46:40]
Dom Nicholls
Fascinating stuff. Thanks, Mik.
- [46:56]
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- [47:25]
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- [48:45]
Dom Nicholls
Joe, got any final thoughts for us? Joe?
- [48:47]
Joe Barnes
Yeah, so one story that seems to be progressing and it's a little bit twofold. So the new Hungarian government has been formed, and over the weekend Hungary's foreign minister basically said, look, we're not going to abuse our EU veto anymore. So it's not to say we're not going to use it, because every country reserves the right to veto EU policy when it's a unanimous decision needed. But basically Viktor Orban, the former Hungarian Prime Minister and the Kremlin's closest ally inside Europe, used the veto to get his own way and mainly to hamstring Ukraine. So hopefully that is gone. Which should, as the enlargement Commissioner mentioned today, enable Ukraine's accession talks to actually start progressing. She wants the first cluster of negotiations to begin and be signed off by June, and then she wants the remaining five clusters to be agreed to be opened for negotiation in July. So she wants basically the Cypriot presidency of the EU to take, get the first one over the line, get it, get it moving, and then asking Ireland, which takes over the EU's rotating presidency in July, to then take over. And I'll quickly run through the clusters that need to be opened. There is one called fundamentals, which I presume is going to be the one that's open first, because that's the biggest one. That is your justice, judiciary, public procurement, basically corruption. That's what most people are concerned about when it comes to Ukraine. Then you have internal market, which is sort of all of a free movement of goods, workers, services, capital, legal stuff, then competitiveness, inclusive growth, the green agenda, resources, agriculture and cohesion, and then external relations. That's your foreign policy. So we should have news by the end of this month, in early next month that Ukraine is allowed to open those negotiating clusters, the first one, which is a really positive step for Ukraine.
- [50:48]
Dom Nicholls
And what kind of any idea of the time frame this would take when the kind of the latest round, a group of countries ceded or entered the eu. What kind of time frame does it take to go through all these clusters?
- [51:02]
Joe Barnes
In theory, it can be done very quickly because Ukraine has known its destiny lies in the EU for a fair while now. And we're told constantly by the Ukrainians that the government has been implementing various different reforms despite the negotiations not moving forward. So if technically Ukraine has its house in order, in line with EU rules, it won't take that long. But there are precedents where it has taken a decade or so. Albania is still not a member of the EU despite being officially recognized as an accession candidate country 26 years ago.
- [51:37]
Dom Nicholls
Right.
- [51:37]
Joe Barnes
It only opened negotiation clusters in November 2025.
- [51:43]
Dom Nicholls
Okay. Oh, well that's, that's pretty recent then.
- [51:45]
Joe Barnes
Yeah. So 25 years it took from being given candidate status to opening all of the clusters. But we are no further forward as it stands when it comes to Albania. So in theory it could be very quick, but in reality it could take a while.
- [52:01]
Dom Nicholls
Brilliant. Thanks, Joe. Thanks for today. Great reporting for Estonia. As I said, we'll put a link in the episode notes for that, for your article there. And Mikola, have you got any final thoughts for our listeners and viewers?
- [52:13]
Mykola Beliskov
Well, first of all, it's nice to be here for the third time and thanks for keep doing it. You know, we are entering this phase, I would say, of the war. Quite optimistic because before we discussed only the risk, only negative scenarios. Right now I can say that we might finally see some kind of horizon in front of us, basically. And if we just keep pushing and applying the pressure both along the front line and also deep strikes plus sanctions, we might bring this war to the conclusion. It doesn't mean that it happened overnight, but in 2026, I would say that Ukraine Defense Forces are on a solid footing, on more solid footing as they were in 2024, 2025.
- [52:55]
Dom Nicholls
Thanks Makona. Thanks for joining us today. Joe, thank you for joining us as well from Brussels. That's us folks. That's it for today. We'll be back again tomorrow, same time, same place, where we will discover whether or not Putin has decided to extend the three day ceasefire. I think we might know the answer to that, but please do if you can join us. Anyway, we'll see you tomorrow. Thanks.
- [53:21]
David Knowles
Ukraine the latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph created by David Knowles. Every episode featuring us in the studio maps and battlefield footage is now available to watch on our YouTube channel. Subscribe at www.YouTube.com Crainethelatest. There's a link in the description. You can also sign up to the Ukraine the Latest newsletter each week we answer your questions, provide recommended reading and give exclusive analysis and behind the scenes insights plus diagrams of the front lines and weaponry to complement our reporting. It's free for everyone including non subscribers. You can find the link to sign up in the episode description. If you appreciate our work, please consider following Ukraine the Latest on your preferred podcast app and leave us a review as it helps others find the show. Please also share it with those who may not be aware we exist. You can also get in touch directly to ask questions or give comments by emailing ukrainepodelegraph.co.uk we continue to read every message. You can also contact us directly on X. You'll find our handles in the description. As ever, we're especially interested to hear where you're listening from around the world. And finally, to support our work and stay on top of all of our Ukraine news, analysis and dispatches from the ground, please subscribe to the Telegraph. You can get one month for free, then two months for just one pound at www.telegraph.co.uk Ukraine the latest Ukraine the Latest was Today, produced by Rachel Porter. Executive producers are Francis Dernley, Louisa Wells and David Knowles.
- [55:00]
Joe Barnes
My name is David Knowles. Thank you all for listening.
- [55:03]
Dom Nicholls
Goodbye.
- [55:10]
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Mykola Beliskov
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Joe Barnes
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Mykola Beliskov
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Joe Barnes
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Mykola Beliskov
Whether you have a casual interest in
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Joe Barnes
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Mykola Beliskov
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Joe Barnes
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Mykola Beliskov
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Joe Barnes
Let's Talk About Myths Baby has something for everyone.
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Mykola Beliskov
Listen to let's Talk About Myths Baby wherever you get your podcasts, new episodes every Tuesday and Friday or find more information@mythsbaby.com Acast helps creators launch, grow and monetize their podcasts everywhere. Acast.com.