Ukraine: The Latest – "Gen Z will fight" - Conscription divides Europe & the view from Ukrainian trenches

Podcast from The Telegraph | Episode date: February 20, 2025

Overview

This episode delves into the sharp political debates facing Ukraine, Europe, and the West as the war enters its third year. The panel confronts Donald Trump's inflammatory rhetoric about President Zelensky and US support, heated European conversations around conscription and military readiness, shifting alliances, and hard realities from Ukraine’s front lines. Listeners get both high-level analysis of strategic options and on-the-ground insights from soldiers, all against the backdrop of what may be a pivotal turning point in the war.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Rhetoric and Western Response

• Trump’s Critique: Trump called President Zelenskyy a “dictator” and accused him of grifting, reigniting concerns about the future of American support for Ukraine.
  • (03:17) Francis Darnley quotes Trump in full, including:
    • “A dictator without elections. Zelenskyy better move fast. He is not going to have a country left… we are successfully negotiating an end to the war with Russia, something all admit only Trump… can do. Biden never tried.”
• Backlash Among Allies: European leaders and even some US Republicans condemned Trump’s remarks.
  • (04:33) Keir Starmer’s spokesperson: “The prime minister expressed his support for President Zelensky as Ukraine’s democratically elected leader…”
  • (05:15) Vice President J.D. Vance claimed Zelenskyy’s public disagreement with Trump is “not a good way to deal with President Trump… he’s attacking the only reason this country exists publicly right now, and it’s disgraceful... going to have the opposite effect.”
• Dilemma for European Leaders:
  • Jessica Berlin (06:32): “Moral outrage is not a strategy… Only two things matter in this White House: power and a win for the boss.”
• US Reputation & Alliance Concerns:
  • Shashank Yoshi (08:41): “Does anyone think that this president would actually honour Article 5?... Its deterrent value is significantly reduced and falling.”
  • Professor Elliot Cohen (09:37): “As a vision, it is, in some reasonable sense of the word, evil. It is also appallingly dumb… these policies will give aid and comfort to America's enemies, shatter the alliances that have made us strong…"

2. Seizing Russian Assets & European Agency

• Urgency for Europe to Act:
  • Francis Darnley (07:27): “It’s curious that more isn’t being talked about the most obvious thing that can be done—to actually seize the $300 billion in Russian sovereign assets that the West has frozen, perhaps before Trump tries to surrender them.”
• ECB Resistance and Risks: The European Central Bank reportedly opposes the asset seizure due to market disruption fears. Yet, many argue Moscow would seize Western assets if ever expedient.

3. Military Readiness, Conscription, and Boots on the Ground

• British/European Troop Deployment Discussion:
  • Hamish de Bretton Gordon (15:18): Discusses Kremlin reactions, the role of Article 5, and the rationale for European troops to act as a credible deterrent.
  • (17:42) Emphasizes the need for an enduring, sizable force (“if you have 50,000 troops, you actually need 150,000 due to rotation and rest cycles”).
• UK Capabilities and Conscription Debate:
  • British capabilities likely center around “a brigade framework… about 15,000 troops is probably sustainable” (23:32).
  • On conscription:
    • Hamish (22:16): “Conscription is a bit of clickbait at the moment… only 11% of Gen Z would actually fight for Britain… I think that is completely wrong.”
    • Asserts that national service is not likely, but Britain has 100,000 reservists.
    • (33:16) “The military have always opposed [national service] because if you’ve got lots of unwilling volunteers… it chews up so much military manpower that it negates the reason for sort of doing it.”
• Coalition Structure & US Role:
  • UK, France, Nordics cited as main backbone for a Ukraine force; readiness and interoperability described as high.
  • (26:19) Hamish: “We’ve been doing these NATO exercises for a long, long time… everything I’m hearing, I’d be relatively confident that this force could be effective in place in a couple of months.”
• Air Support & Strategic Risks:
  • The force must be backed by “significant intelligence assets” and “significant air power”—the latter only the US can provide at scale (24:56).
  • Potential for non-NATO European coalitions if the US blocks NATO action—allied nuclear deterrents in France/UK discussed as backstop.

4. Strategic Options, European Division, and Timing

• Precarious Moment:
  • Francis Farrell (41:20): “The real question, now… are we ready to do something outside that framework? …ambiguity about the conditions in which troops could be deployed still seems to reign supreme.”
• Warning on Timing:
  • Francis Darnley (43:38): “If a ceasefire is agreed on Russian and American terms, the prospect of Europe being able to act decisively after that point—it’s too late.”

5. On the Ukrainian Front: Frontline Realities and Morale

• Direct Report from Donetsk:
  • Francis Farrell spent two weeks embedded with Ukrainian brigades, “from company commanders… to heavy bomber drones, to medics.” (45:05)
• Russian Tactics:
  • Russian advances center on “small infantry assault groups… if you send six men, maybe one or two… survive and dig in, but that’s enough for them to send the next six. That’s how it works all the way across.” (50:14)
• Attrition and Ukrainian Defense:
  • Russians rely on quantity, with contract soldiers a “conveyor belt,” not wanting to risk mobilization.
  • Some sectors saw notable Ukrainian stabilization (e.g., Pokrovsk), though others face ongoing pressure and “chaotic retreats.”
  • “The conditions that infantrymen are in on the very zero line… is something on another level entirely.” (47:03)
• Morale and Dignity:
  • Despite hardship, “people have definitely been in support of Zelensky drawing a line. There's a reason that Ukraine's Maidan revolution is called the revolution of dignity.” (55:51)
• Fears of Abandonment:
  • Increasing sense in Ukraine that American political disunity could lead to abandonment, with “hopeful thinking” about Trump now ending:
    • “It’s time for that wishful thinking to be over on this continent here in Europe and action to be taken understanding what kind of period awaits us.” (58:09)

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s Approach:
  • Francis Darnley (09:37):
    “As a vision, it is, in some reasonable sense of the word, evil. It is also appallingly dumb…these policies will give aid and comfort to America’s enemies…shatter the alliances that have made us strong.”
• On Conscription and Gen Z:
  • Hamish de Bretton Gordon (22:43): “Conscription is a bit of clickbait at the moment…if the requirement is there, [Gen Z] will turn up. But I say conscription is a bit of clickbait at the moment.”
• On Coalition Readiness:
  • Hamish de Bretton Gordon (26:19): “We've been doing these NATO exercises for a long, long time. Admittedly, you have to go back to Bosnia and Kosovo...when we last had a sort of peace enforcement mission on this sort of scale. It worked pretty well then.”
• On Frontline Realities:
  • Francis Farrell (47:00):
    “There was one wounded soldier…in a surprisingly fighting mood for someone who’d just been on position for four days after being wounded in the face by a Russian FPV drone and tragically losing all of his comrades…he was actually even still killing more Russians just through the entrance to his dugout. Just an incredible tale of survival…could easily be a Hollywood movie.”
• On Ukrainian Morale and Peace:
  • Francis Farrell (55:51):
    “If we just have a peace now and we have to fight again or our children will have to fight and we have to give up territory…I just won't accept it because so many—so many—of my friends died for this.”
  • “There’s a reason that Ukraine’s Maidan revolution is called the revolution of dignity. And I think how Zelensky has handled this...that's the kind of language that we need, and Ukraine broadly supports it.”
• On European Agency:
  • Francis Darnley (43:38):
    “It’s too late [to act] once a deal is struck over their heads…they have to get troops on the ground in before, or they have to put in their own stance before that…”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:17]–[12:35]: Trump’s comments, impact on US/EU diplomacy, Ukraine’s elections debate
• [14:57]–[34:55]: UK/European troop deployment scenarios; analysis by Hamish de Bretton Gordon; in-depth on force sizes, conscription, reservists, and coalition options
• [36:01]–[59:29]: Conversation with Francis Farrell (Kyiv Independent): strategy outlook, European debate, realities from Donetsk front, Russian tactics, Ukrainian morale
• [59:34]–[61:41]: Final thoughts and reflection on the episode

Tone & Language

The episode carries a measured, urgent tone—serious, reflective, and driven by the sense of a historical crossroads. Debate is analytic and frank: no sugar-coating of political, military, or human dilemmas. On the ground, reports from the Ukrainian front emphasize both exhaustion and resolve.

Conclusion

This episode underscores a decisive, anxious moment for Europe and Ukraine: will Europe step up, militarily and financially, if US support wavers? Is it willing and able to act independently if needed? And can Ukraine sustain morale and defense under shifting international winds? As both high politics and gritty soldier stories make clear, the answers—coming sooner rather than later—will shape the future of Europe and the world.