Ukraine: The Latest – February 27, 2026

Kremlin insider: ‘we don't plan to win the war’ & FSB claims 150,000 Russians used special ‘helplines’ to denounce fellow citizens

Hosts & Contributors:

• Francis Dernley (host, London)
• Dominic Nicholls (Mykolaiv/Bashtanka)
• Adeli Pojoin Ponce (Kyiv)
• Dr. Jade McGlynn (near Kharkiv, formerly occupied territory)
• James Kilner (Russia analyst, London)

Episode Overview

This episode marks the four-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The team provides dispatches from multiple Ukrainian fronts, details the impact of the war on ordinary civilians, especially children, and offers an in-depth look at how the Russian state and public are dealing with the ongoing conflict, including economic hardships and heightened repression. Special attention is given to shifts in Russian propaganda, extraordinary levels of citizen surveillance, the banning of Telegram, and strategies to recruit and control their population in support of the war.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Latest Military and Civil Updates from Ukraine

[03:17] – [07:43]

• Southern Front (Bashtanka, Mykolaiv):
  Dominic Nicholls reports from Bashtanka, a pivotal village during the early invasion. Local villagers and troops managed to repel a Russian armored column using limited weaponry, significantly altering Russia’s initial advance and potentially preventing Odessa’s capture.

  • “If it hadn’t been for the stand of the people in the village of Bashtanka, it could have been a very, very different picture at the start of the full scale invasion...” – Dom Nicholls [07:26]

• Eastern Front (Kharkiv Region):
  Dr. Jade McGlynn, on the ground, describes the ongoing destruction in a formerly occupied village. There, she gathers personal stories of abductions, forced displacement, and loss caused by repeated cycles of occupation and liberation.

  • “What happened four years ago is still happening… it’s like the 24th of February never ended.” – Dr. Jade McGlynn [11:02]
  • Civilians, especially older generations, choose to stay despite dire conditions, anchored by attachment to home and place even amid high danger.

• Resistance Activities in Occupied Territories:
  Dr. McGlynn reports at least 15 confirmed resistance operations from 12th–25th February, focusing on sabotage of vehicles, transportation logistics, and arson attacks, particularly in Kherson, Mariupol, Crimea, and Melitopol.

  • “The efforts to reduce local mobility to assist the Ukrainian armed forces… destroying logistics that could be used against them.” – Dr. Jade McGlynn [15:39]

2. The Trauma of War on Children

[17:28] – [19:07]

• Francis Dernley highlights a haunting statistic:
  • “According to the UN, one in three children in Ukraine has witnessed someone being killed or injured during the last four years of war.” [17:43]
• A harrowing portrait emerges from studies and on-the-ground accounts of widespread emotional distress, self-harm, and developmental delays among children, who are rarely given consideration in high-level diplomatic or territorial discussions.

3. Diplomacy and US Involvement

[20:14] – [23:09]

• Ukrainian delegates meet US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Geneva, aiming to synchronize positions ahead of trilateral negotiations with Russia and Iran—increasing questions about Russian willingness for peace, as leaked intercepts show Kremlin insiders mocking Trump’s naiveté about Putin.

4. Russian State: Denial, Repression, and Economic Strain

a. Kremlin’s Anniversary Silence & Shift in Propaganda

[23:09] – [26:32]

• The invasion’s fourth anniversary is ignored in Russian media and by Putin, who keeps up the rhetoric of “demilitarization” and “denazification.”
  • “The Kremlin’s ignored this fourth anniversary… pretending it’s business as usual, the banality of evil.” – James Kilner [24:20]
• Only fringe figures, like nationalist writer Zakhar Prilepin, openly admit a lack of true Russian war aims:
  • “It's not even that Russia can't win yet… The point is that we don't even have such a goal.” – Zakhar Prilepin (quoted by James Kilner) [25:36]

b. Ban on Telegram and Internal Repression

[27:10] – [32:46]

• Anticipated Kremlin ban on Telegram (from April 1st) signals deep regime insecurity about information control.
  • “It’s equivalent to the UK government turning off WhatsApp and forcing everyone onto a government-made snooping app…” – James Kilner [27:20]
• Dissent is growing as economic conditions worsen and losses mount; forced migration to government apps expected to breed even more resentment.
• Notable up-tick in repression: high-profile anti-war journalist Yekaterina Duntsova detained for her activism.

c. Economy: Inflation, Deficits, Food Prices

[32:46] – [36:50]

• Symbolic focus: cucumbers at record prices (up to 2,000 rubles/$20 per cucumber in remote regions), an “index” for general price hikes affecting everyday Russians.
  • “Apparently a gig number has been sold for just over 2,000 rubles… you order it by the gram.” – James Kilner [33:48]
• Other signs:
  • Hazardous jobs now open to teenagers due to manpower shortages.
  • Russian regions’ budget deficits up 360% year-over-year.
  • Wage arrears up 500%.
  • Meat consumption, especially steaks (a luxury), sharply down, indicating general impoverishment.

d. Sanctions and Oil Export Dynamics

[36:50] – [39:04]

• Despite postponed US sanctions on Lukoil assets, secondary sanctions and global benchmarks hit Russian crude profits: more oil sold, but at losses up to 18% due to forced discounting to China and others.

e. Use of Mercenaries and Recruitment Laws

[39:04] – [41:38]

• Russia's new law protects foreign mercenaries from extradition, incentivizes criminals from abroad to fight for Moscow in exchange for freedom – described as an extension of the Wagner model.
• African country “bans” are likely performative, not substantive: “The Kremlin is not interested in banning people recruiting on its behalf.” – James Kilner [39:30]

f. State Surveillance and Informing: FSB “Helplines”

[41:38] – [44:49]

• FSB reveals 150,000 Russians used helplines in 2024 to denounce colleagues, neighbors, and family for thought or speech crimes.
  • “So, the FSB, rather proud of themselves… turning Russia into… a snooping state.” – James Kilner [42:03]
• Historical echoes are drawn to the Stasi and Soviet denunciation practices, creating a society rife with mistrust and fear.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “What happened four years ago is still happening… it’s like the 24th of February never ended.” – Dr. Jade McGlynn [11:02]
• “The banality of the Kremlin and its ability to ignore such a… milestone is remarkable.” – James Kilner [24:20]
• “It’s not even that Russia can’t win yet, the point is that we don’t even have such a goal.” – Zakhar Prilepin/James Kilner [25:36]
• “It is equivalent to the UK government turning off WhatsApp… a seismic shift.” – James Kilner [27:20]
• “150,000 people in Russia used their [FSB] helplines to denounce their friends, their colleagues, their family members… you may experience a waiting time.” – James Kilner [41:38]

Important Timestamps

• [03:17] Updates from Bashtanka and Mykolaiv front (Dom Nicholls)
• [08:08]–[13:28] Human stories from formerly occupied territory around Kharkiv (Dr. Jade McGlynn)
• [13:28]–[16:01] Resistance operations in occupied regions
• [17:28]–[19:07] Psychological toll on children and civilians
• [23:09]–[26:32] Russian state silence, official propaganda, Kremlin psychology (James Kilner)
• [27:10]–[32:46] Telegram ban, suppression of dissent, internal control
• [32:46]–[36:50] Economic mismanagement, privations, “cucumber index”
• [39:04]–[41:38] Mercenary laws, foreign recruitment, drones and police staffing
• [41:38]–[44:49] Informant culture, 150,000 denunciations via FSB “helplines”
• [48:48] South Caucasus/Armenia’s pivot to EU, implications for Russian influence

Memorable Moments

• On the ground exposure: Air alerts and shelling interrupt reporting, but reporters remain committed to conveying the lived reality from Ukraine’s front lines.

  • “I actually just heard another bang, but it’s quite far away, so there’s nothing that will take me away from my dedication to Ukraine: The Latest podcast.” – Dr. Jade McGlynn [10:37]

• Cucumber Price Humor Amid Crisis:

  • “You wouldn’t pay 20 quid for a cucumber? …Really, you shouldn’t laugh. This is the privations of poor people in Ukraine who didn’t choose this war.” – James Kilner [33:48]

• FSB Helpline Irony:

  • “…to the point where the FSB on their press statement said, ‘We’re experiencing very high call numbers. You may experience a waiting time!’” – James Kilner [41:41]
  • “It does, rather. Wow.” – Francis Dernley [42:02]

Final Reflections

• The episode concludes with a poignant note about the team’s shift to full video production for the fourth anniversary, their commitment to covering the reality of the war when global attention may fade, and recognition of David Knowles’ ongoing influence on the podcast, even after stepping back.
• James Kilner notes the continued pivot of Russian allies like Armenia towards the EU, a trend driven by the Kremlin’s behavior since 2022.

Summary

This episode lays bare the ongoing devastation across Ukraine, not just on a macro military scale but in intensely personal, psychological, and societal terms. It offers an unvarnished look at the Russian regime’s denial and repression, the daily material hardships facing ordinary Russians, and the chilling escalation of citizen-on-citizen surveillance and denunciation. The message throughout: The war’s effects are far from over, on either side of the front, and the Kremlin, lacking a clear strategy or endgame—and increasingly fearful of its own population—continues to double down on control rather than confession or compassion.

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