Putin confesses 'problems' in Ukraine war for first time & fuel hoarding sweeps Russia

Summary

Ukraine: The Latest — Putin Confesses 'Problems' in Ukraine War & Fuel Hoarding Sweeps Russia

Host: David Knowles
Co-hosts: Francis Durnley, James Rothwell
Date: June 29, 2026
Podcast: The Telegraph

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Episode Overview

This episode focuses on three central developments:

• Vladimir Putin’s unprecedented public admission of “problems” in the Ukraine war.
• Ukraine’s ongoing campaign of strikes on Russian infrastructure and the reverberating impact, including widespread fuel hoarding inside Russia.
• A deep dive into NATO’s readiness in the Baltics, with special reports from Berlin correspondent James Rothwell.

The discussion weaves together frontline updates, diplomatic developments (notably involving Belarus and China), and broader NATO and European defence considerations.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Putin’s First Public Acknowledgment of War “Problems”

• At the annual United Russia Party meeting, President Putin—typically unwavering in his rhetoric—admitted Russia faces “difficult and fateful” times, calling this period merely a “speed bump” on the path to victory.
• Notably, it’s the first time since the war's inception that Putin has explicitly referenced problems, even as he doubled down on claims of impending Russian victory and accused the West of orchestrating Ukraine's resistance.
  • Quote:
    "Yes, we see the problems, we are aware of them and we are responding to them."
    — Vladimir Putin, paraphrased by David Knowles [04:50]
• The United Russia Party formally rebranded itself as “Putin’s party,” a shift not seen since 2007, seemingly orchestrated to bolster his authority ahead of September 2026 State Duma elections.

2. Impacts of Ukraine’s Strike Campaign & Russian Fuel Crisis

• Following President Zelenskyy’s order for a strike campaign lasting “40 days and 40 nights,” Ukraine intensified attacks on Russian infrastructure:
  • Missile strikes hit the Titan Barakadi defense plant in Volgograd, oil refineries in Slaviansk (Krasadar region) and Yaroslavl, and (reportedly) the Kerch thermal power plant, leading to repeated closures of the Kerch Bridge. [06:10–07:07]
• Domestic consequences for Russia include abrupt rationing at Rosneft fuel stations (max 50 litres per vehicle), widespread queues, and fuel hoarding across the country.

Russian Attacks on Ukraine

• Russia continues heavy bombardment of Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, with waves of missiles and drones:
  • Over one weekend: Seven dead, dozens injured (including children) in Nikopol and Zaporizhzhia; high interception rates for Ukrainian air defense (e.g., “125 of 142 drones shot down”).
  • Civilian targets, such as minibuses and fire engines, have been repeatedly struck, sometimes in “double tap” attacks aimed at first responders.
  • June 2026 is shaping up to be the deadliest month for Russian forces since March 2025, with over 1,200 Russian casualties in a single day.
    • Quote:
      “This month is already the most costly for Russia since March of last year.”
      — David Knowles [08:51]

3. Diplomatic Manoeuvring: Belarus, China, and NATO

• Belarus:

  • Zelenskyy issued a bold ultimatum for Belarus to dismantle Russian drone relay stations along the border—stations that did go silent.
  • Lukashenko, summoned to Putin’s retreat at Lake Valdai and then traveling unexpectedly to China for “full red carpet” talks with Xi Jinping, is possibly seeking options beyond Moscow.
    • Speculation: Belarus could be “hedging” between Russia and China, or acting as an intermediary.
    • Quote:
      “Something’s changing there, Dom. I think that is definitely what we can say for certain.”
      — Francis Durnley [12:39]

• Baltic Defence Buildup:

  • Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are rapidly constructing new anti-tank ditches, bunkers, and installing anti-personnel mines on NATO’s eastern edge. Estonia alone is investing €60 million.
  • Estonian Foreign Minister underscores that Ukrainian drones landing on NATO soil is “a price worth paying” to degrade Russian logistics.

4. NATO, Diplomacy, and U.S. Policy

• President Biden, at a rare public fundraiser, criticized former President Trump’s perceived undermining of NATO, asserting U.S. leadership is essential.

  • Quote:
    “It’s not just his deliberate distortion and destruction of NATO...he’s diminished our standing in the eyes of the world more than any president in history has.”
    — Joe Biden, cited by David Knowles [19:04]

• There is now a diplomatic void as the U.S. has no ambassador in Kyiv, signaling possible wavering in U.S. commitment or simply a bureaucratic lapse.

  • Francis Durnley suggests this vacancy “tells its own story...about where U.S. priorities are at the moment.” [21:10]

• Turkey is reasserting its willingness to mediate peace talks, and Serbia’s resignation of its pro-Russia president signals shifting landscapes in the Balkans.

5. Ukrainian Statehood and Historical Identity

• Constitution Day (marking the 30th anniversary of Ukraine’s modern constitution) was celebrated with patriotic statecraft:
  • Zelenskyy outlined a “new Ukrainian national pantheon” to memorialize heroes from Ukraine’s history.
    • Quote:
      “The names of all the heroes who...fought for Ukraine and inspired Ukraine, will be brought together and forever inscribed in our history...with great respect and attention from the state.”
      — Zelenskyy, cited by Francis Durnley [14:12]
  • The president also honored recipients of the new “Order of Europe,” awarded to foreigners and Ukrainians contributing to Ukraine’s defense.

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Special Focus: NATO Preparedness in the Baltics

With James Rothwell (Berlin Correspondent) [From 23:15 onward]

Exercise Highlights (Latvia)

• James Rothwell participated in a large-scale NATO logistics exercise on Latvia’s coast, detailing new infrastructure (e.g., concrete ramps for rapid vessel deployment) and joint explosive ordnance demonstrations with U.S. Marines, Portuguese EOD, and local Latvian forces.
  • Quote:
    “Amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics.”
    — Dom Nicholls [26:08]
• Captain Alan Willey, U.S. Navy, explained these “enabling logistics nodes” are the critical backbone for rapid deployment in crisis, ensuring forces and heavy equipment can be transported efficiently:
  • “Without the delivery of the people and the assets...it just cannot be accomplished.” [30:16]

German Military Rearmament & Infrastructure Woes

• Rothwell’s exclusive interview with Luftwaffe chief Holger Neumann revealed Germany is “ready to fight tonight” and that NATO’s defensive plans explicitly target Russian military assets, including Kaliningrad and the Kola Peninsula.
  • The interview sparked political debate in Germany, as naming specific Russian targets is a rare public admission of defense policy.
    • “The head of the Luftwaffe...name[d] several actual targets that would be struck by NATO.” [34:00+]
• Return of Conscription?
  • The prospect of mandatory national service is controversial in Germany; some reforms already require young men to signal interest in military service.
• Transport Bottlenecks:
  • Germany’s decaying infrastructure—especially railways—has become so dire it could impede NATO troop movements in a crisis.
  • There’s a €500 billion fund now established to repair and modernize roads and train networks, but delays and heatwave-related failures highlight pressing vulnerability.

Risks on NATO’s Eastern Flank

• Despite Russian setbacks in Ukraine, the main fear is not a full-scale invasion but a “small-scale incursion” designed to test Article 5 solidarity.
  • Quote:
    “You don't need to amass a massive army...to completely present an existential test to NATO's willingness to come to the defense of its allies.”
    — James Rothwell [43:22]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Article 5 & U.K. Security:

  • “Don’t forget, Britain’s border, in essence, is the Baltics, is Poland, it’s Germany, it’s all of these countries because of Article 5. That simple point is quite often lost...because our politicians don’t talk about it.”
    — Francis Durnley [43:54]

• On Security Risks:

  • “How lucky you are you don’t have Russian submarines sneaking around your coastline...or have your Prime Minister’s house subject to an arson attack...How lucky you are not to have all these threats...”
    — Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, paraphrased [44:26]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Putin’s United Russia Party Meeting & “Problems” Admission: [04:50–05:34]
• Ukraine’s Strike Campaign & Russian Fuel Hoarding: [06:10–08:51]
• Belarus’s Diplomatic Manoeuvring (China, Russia, Drone Relay): [09:42–12:47]
• Ukraine Constitution Day, National Pantheon, Mazepa Statue: [12:52–17:16]
• U.S. Diplomatic Absence in Kyiv/Biden vs. Trump on NATO: [19:04–21:32]
• Baltic NATO Defenses, Estonia’s Bunkers: [08:51–09:42]
• James Rothwell on Baltic NATO Exercises: [23:15–29:59]
• Interview with U.S. Navy Captain Alan Willey (Logistics): [27:45–29:59]
• Interview with U.S. Marine Master Sgt. Buchman (EOD/Interoperability): [31:47–32:53]
• Luftwaffe Chief on “Ready to Fight Tonight” & Naming Russian Targets: [33:36–35:45]
• Conscription Debate in Germany: [36:06–37:30]
• German Infrastructure Problems & NATO Implications: [38:19–40:09]
• Baltic Provocation Scenarios & Article 5 Discussion: [42:14–44:26]

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Final Thoughts

• Francis Durnley:
  “Many people forget Britain’s border is, in essence, the Baltics...because of Article 5. That’s a point our politicians don’t say enough.”
• James Rothwell:
  “Keep an eye on the Baltics. The worry is not a new full-scale war, but a small incident that could test NATO’s resolve.”

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Additional Resources

• Full episode (with maps & battlefield footage) available on YouTube: Ukraine: The Latest YouTube
• Write to the team: [e-mail]

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Transcript

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[David Knowles]

Acast.com. I'm Dom Nicholls and this is Ukraine. The latest Today, after a weekend that saw Ukraine's Constitution Day celebrated with yet more lengthy queues at petrol stations in Russia and Crimea and a situation not helped by Russian oil refineries continuing to self sanction, we report how Putin shrugs that these difficult days are just a speed bump on the road to inevitable victory. We Ponder on Alexander Lukashenko's slightly odd weekend jaunt to China via Putin's lakeside retreat in Valdai. At least we know what all the extra air defence was shipped in for. And we ask, is he looking for a new best friend? And finally we speak to our Berlin correspondent who has been reporting on NATO preparations for for a possible future battle of the Baltics. Bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with victory.

[Francis Durnley]

Russia does not want peace.

[David Knowles]

If I'm President, I will have that war settled in one day, 24 hours. We are with you. Not just today or tomorrow, but for a hundred years.

[Francis Durnley]

Nobody's going to break us.

[David Knowles]

We're strong. We're Ukrainians. It's Monday 29 June, four years and 125 days since the full scale invasion began. And today I'm joined by my co host Francis Durnley and Berlin correspondent James Rothwell. Now, yesterday saw the annual meeting of Putin's United Russia Party. We'll cover the Congress for historical accuracy, but I'm afraid that's pretty much where the accuracy ends. Putin's speech was a smorgasbord of dictatorial delusions containing all the usual gems. The west is behind the war in Ukraine, but cannot strategically defeat Russia and cannot win on the battlefield where Russian military victory is inevitable. Ukrainian forces are retreating along the entire front line, which is on the verge of collapsing anyway. And meanwhile Ukraine of course continues to carry out terrorist attacks. The only brush with reality was when Putin grudgingly said that Russia was going through a difficult and fateful time. Throughout the Congress there were loads of Z symbols. Interestingly, the Institute for the Study of War, citing the Russian opposition outlet Meduza, say this is the first time since 2007 that the United Russia Party has formally claimed to be Putin's party. The party published a campaign post yesterday containing a picture of Putin and the slogans United Russia is the President's party and and being for Putin is the bare minimum. Now Medusa say, as I said, this is the first time since 2007 United Russia has declared itself the President's party. All part, Meduza say of shaping the information space ahead of the September 2026 Russian State Duma elections. Putin said, yes, we see the problems, we are aware of them and we are responding to them. But we will certainly ensure the security of both the country and our citizens as well as the inviolability of of Russia's borders. Francis, how inviolable do you think Russia's borders are.

[Francis Durnley]

Well, it's been fascinating seeing Putin have to finally admit that something has gone wrong. I think this is the first time throughout the entire course of the war that that's taken place. There's been moments where the language has spoken about this being a conflict that NATO has become involved in and thereby not directly but indirectly saying, you know, we're fighting a broader enemy than the neo Nazis in Kyiv. But he's never said that there are problem problems before and of course it was impossible to ignore following those extraordinary attacks that we reported in Moscow just a couple of weeks ago. So I think it's fascinating.

[David Knowles]

Meanwhile, back in the real world, you'll remember last Thursday President Zelenskyy decided to get all biblical on Putin's ass by authorizing a strike campaign lasting 40 days and 40 nights to push Russia to end the war. Well, that continued over the weekend. On Friday night, Flamingo missiles hit the Titan Barakadi defense plant in Volgograd. Then Saturday was Ukraine's constitution day. President Zelenskyy said yesterday Sunday our warriors began Ukraine's Constitution day with great accuracy, explaining how long range sanctions had reached two oil refineries in Russia. The Slaviansk oil refinery in the Krasadar region 300 km or so from the front line and a refinery in the Yaroslavl region about 700 kilometers away. The attacks continue through last night with the Kerch thermal power plant thought to have been hit. This comes from the Crimean Wind Telegram channel after along with other Russian military and infrastructure targets, the Kerch bridge closed again for at least five hours yesterday. The continued strikes come as Igor Kobzev, that's the governor of Irkutsk region in Siberia, announced that drivers will be allowed to buy no more than 50 liters, about 13 gallons of fuel per vehicle per day at state run Rosnev fuel stations. There are reports of fuel hoarding across Russia. There was no move on the ground over the weekend. But Russian attacks on civilians continued across Ukraine Friday to Saturday. Seven people were killed and nearly a injured. Two of the dead were killed when Russian forces hit a civilian minibus in the city of Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Others were injured there including two 12 year old sisters. Then Saturday to Sunday, Ukraine's air force said it had intercepted all six Iskand M ballistic missiles, one of two Zircon hypersonic missiles or Onyx missiles and 125 of 142 drones launched by Russia. There were 36 people injured in those strikes. And then throughout yesterday and into today. Two people were killed and 17 injured in Zaporizhzhia through a mixture of missiles, drones and glide bombs. And this morning Dnipro has been hit with a ballistic missile. Four killed there, many more injured. And another civilian minibus hit, this time in Zaporizhzhia. Three dead just in the last couple of hours. President Zelensky has said Nikopol was hit in a double tap strike on first responders and a fire engine. The Russians also attacked energy infrastructure in the Sumy, Odessa and Chernihiv regions, he said, and launch strikes on Kherson and and the Kharkiv region. Over 1200 Russian casualties yesterday continuing the recent trend. This month is already the most costly for Russia since March of last year. And there's still a couple of days left now looking a little bit wider. Let's have a look at the Baltics. We'll be speaking to James Rothwell more in a moment. But first, Estonia's Foreign Minister Margu Sakhna said work on the Baltic defense line is progressing with 28 bunkers and more than 10km of anti tank ditches dug in southeastern Estonia so far. This is a joint project with Latvia and Lithuania. Estonia is spending up to 60 million euro on digging a network of anti tank ditches and installing 600 bunkers, thousands of Dragon's teeth and anti personnel mines on its eastern border. Mr. Sackner said any hostile force should take this as a clear do not enter sign. Now sticking with Estonia's foreign minister, he said that incidents in which Ukrainian drones accidentally land on the territory of NATO member states represent a price worth paying if they contribute to the destruction of Russian refineries and military bases. This comes from Estonian news agency Styria. Now, Francis, let's talk about Belarus. President Zelenskyy, you'll remember, gave them a week to dismantle the drone relay stations dotted along the border. We saw this, you know. Is this a test of loyalty for Alexander Lukashenko to see if he wants to stick close to Putin or try and maybe hold out some form of olive branch to Ukraine? Well, those repeater stations did go quiet. Lukashenko was then called to Russia short notice. Go and have a little chat up there. Putin's lakeside retreat at Lake Valdai and then straigh after that. He's gone to China. Arrived in China yesterday, full red carpet treatment. He's meeting Chinese leader Xi Jinping. They've had a couple of days talks. But this meeting wasn't expected, it wasn't planned. We didn't really know about it. There were no great photo calls from his meeting with Putin. We haven't seen anything yet from President Xi. Also speaks of a slight panic. Either panic by Belarus perhaps thinking that it's been left out, hung out to dry, maybe a little bit of panic from Russia thinking that Belarus might be moving away from its orbit. Yeah, possibly, or maybe some. I don't think Xi Jinping is panicking right now, but maybe he doesn't want this war to, to expand any further. But I mean, how. How should we see this? Do you think this is Belarus taking the initiative here, reaching out to China, looking for some other form of protection if they are going to try and move away a little bit from Russia?

[Francis Durnley]

Well, that's certainly one interpretation. It is worth noting that Belarus has an important role to play in China's policy economically with regard to Europe, both ways, as it were, because Belarus exports a lot of fertilizers for China and likewise it is seen as an important trading and logistical node for China's trade entering parts of Europe, with Russia being one connective and then the next connective being Belarus for part of that sort of broader, what we often hear as the new Silk Road initiative. So it's not a country that Beijing will want to completely ignore, particularly if there is a prospect of a geopolitical, if not realignment, slight shifting. Of course, a less favorable interpretation would be that Lukashenko is actually acting as a sort of go between, between Russia and Xi at the moment. Putin's got a lot on his mind, as we've seen, and that they are discussing various different prospects, perhaps even, as of course, the Ukrainians argue, an expansion of the war, and they're all trying to get their ducks in a row. Now, I'm not saying that that's the most likely interpretation or indeed the interpretation that I would favor, but nonetheless, I think we have to, when we don't know what is going on, we have to consider all possibilities. Though, to your point, Dom, I think it' interesting that we haven't seen any photographs of Putin and Lukashenko together. That does not suggest the warmest of relations. And given that they have just turned off those significant towers that we were talking about so much last week and do seem to have been laying the groundwork for softer rhetoric in relation to the war, it would seem that that Minsk is getting a little bit concerned potentially. Unless, of course, they are trying to lay the intellectual foundations for Moscow to be saying that now is time for there to be some sort of ceasefire, which we also have to consider as a possibility. But Something's changing there, Dom. I think that is definitely what we can say for certain.

[David Knowles]

Yeah. This is not normal diplomatic behaviour. What else you've been looking at on the diplomatic front?

[Francis Durnley]

Well, a historic milestone. Yesterday you already allude to Constitution Day on Sunday and President Zelensky gave a big speech. It's always a national day in Ukraine, but this one's particularly significant because it's 30 years since the Ukrainian parliament adopted the constitution after the infamous all nighter in 1996. Finalizing the text of the document. Not one of those. Now, the text is widely interpreted, as we have discussed in previous years, as a pivotal foundation of Ukrainian statehood. It defines citizens rights, it laid the foundations of the state system and it settled Ukraine's sort of irreversible pathway to democracy, really. So it's a really important document that it is worth remembering that Ukraine's constitutional tradition, if we can call it that, goes back much further. In 2021, Sweden returned to Ukraine an original constitution from 1710, I think, which established the separation of powers in a part of what is modern day Ukraine. So Kyiv tries to claim a much older lineage than just 1996 when it comes to these matters. And this is, of course, all relating to Cossack history. And hold that thought because there's more on that in a moment. Now, as I say, yesterday Zelenskyy gave a big speech in what looked like a beautiful sunny day in Kyiv.

[David Knowles]

He.

[Francis Durnley]

He prefaced that speech with a post on social media where he said, our people write the pages of our history, and it is they who fill the pages of our constitution with life, through their example, their deeds, their work and their struggle for Ukraine. Sovereign, self, determined, democratic, governed by the rule of law, European, peaceful, independent. Now, in the speech, zelenskyy underscored that 2026 is a special year for our state. Several anniversaries, the adoption of the constitution, the establishment of the armed forces of Ukraine, the restoration of our state symbols and the rivnia that's the currency. And the culmination of all of this is August 24, 2026, Independence Day of Ukraine, the 35th anniversary of its restoration. It is important that in such a year, Ukraine is giving rise to new landmark elements of its state building. So using history to justify new state institutions, the biggest of which is a new Ukrainian, Ukrainian national pantheon. He went on, the names of all the heroes who, across different centuries and eras, fought for Ukraine and inspired Ukraine, will be brought together and forever inscribed in our history with a capital letter, with great respect and attention from the state. It will be a memorial complex, we understand. It will be open to the public and be located somewhere in Kyiv, likely taking inspiration from two of the best known in Europe. So the French Pantheon in Paris, that secular mausoleum where Voltaire, Rousseau, Hugo, Marie Curie, they're all buried. And then you've got Germany's equivalent, which is the Valhalla, which doesn't actually have them buried there, but has memorials and plaques to many of the great German speaking heroes. So we assume that it's based on some kind of version of one of those. But we don't know anything more, although discussions around this in Ukraine have been going on for quite some time. And to underscore that point, President Zelenskyy said he was writing yet another historical injustice by unveiling on the monastic site struck recently in that notorious raid by Russia. Russia, a bust of one of its historic patrons, the Kazakh leader Ivan Mazepa. For centuries, Russia has smeared his name, Zelenskyy said, striving to make Ukrainians view their own history through the eyes of others, convincing our people that Mazepa was a traitor. This lie has failed. Without a doubt, a figure of this scale deserves a full fledged monument in the capital of our state. I believe that there is an ideal location for it. I am certain that where Lenin fell, Mazepa will stand firm now. Mazepa is regarded in Ukraine as one of the country's most important historical leaders. He led the Cossacks in the late 17th and early 18th centuries. He was initially allied with Russian Tsar Peter I before siding with Moscow's rival Sweden in the Great Northern War of 1700-1721. While no Ukrainian state existed at that time, he's often seen as an important precursor to the idea that the lands of modern day Ukraine could exist apart from the Russian empire.

[David Knowles]

That's really interesting because it was Friday. I saw. I totally missed this. I saw it over the weekend. Crimean Tatar flag day, I think, on Friday.

[Francis Durnley]

Yes.

[David Knowles]

Again, Zelenskyy reaching, reaching into history, not to justify, but marking these important historical moments.

[Francis Durnley]

Well, I think also as well, because of the particular attention to the Crimean peninsula at the moment. It's quite noteworthy. He's trying to underscore that. And he did say that Russia first brought its war to Ukraine in Crimea. And now through their actions, we're doing everything we can to force Russia to end the war and restore justice in its crime. Emir. This is being Zelensky, that lies at the heart of our policy to ensure justice. So an interesting historic revival of some of these themes. We've talked about for many years. So I don't want to over egg this, but I think this is quite a significant speech yesterday.

[David Knowles]

Well, yeah, I don't think you can overeg. I mean, Putin says that Crimea is the spiritual source of Russia. I mean, you know, these big stakes that they're alluding to here. So, no, I don't think he's overrigging it.

[Francis Durnley]

But just one other thing about constitution data. Zelensky announced a new aw for like minded people from other countries that assisted Ukraine. It's going to be called the Order of Europe, interestingly. And that was followed by him giving out some state honors to Ukrainians and foreigners who've assisted the country. Many, of course, of those were military, but our friend Kalin Robinson, who joined us to talk about the Irish factory a couple of weeks ago, was also among the recipients. So many congratulations to him. And I think you spoke to him earlier on. Yeah, so well done, Kaylin. Speaking of speeches, former US President Joe Biden gave a rare one over the weekend at a Democratic fundraiser. Now, it's quite rare, as we know, for US Presidents to make any critical remarks of their predecessors or successors, but he did have this to say.

[David Knowles]

Look, it's not just his deliberate distortion and destruction of NATO and his choosing Putin over American allies or the fact that he's diminished our standing in the eyes of the world more than any president in history has.

[Francis Durnley]

Now, as we've discussed, NATO has not been destroyed by Trump. It's more complicated than that. But certainly the perceived solidarity of Article 5 has been sorely tested under Trump's premiership. And we've still got several years to go. So I suppose everything is possible now. Speaking of the U.S. it is just worth underscoring that the interim U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, Julie Davis, has just concluded her diplomatic mission in the country. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrei Sibir thanked her and for the U.S. s unwavering maneuvering support. But our friends at the Financial Times reported some weeks ago, as we relayed, that she had left because of criticisms of the White House's approach to Ukraine. Davis's departure leaves now a key diplomatic posting at this moment completely vacant in Kiev. And I think that tells its own story, doesn't it, about where the US Priorities are at the moment.

[David Knowles]

Yeah, but if I could be devil's avocado just for, just for a moment, it's also the moment that, that Putin, well, through his, through the channels of lavor, and these kind of characters are saying now's the time for America to return to the leadership role it has in the peace negotiations now that Iran is settling down, etcetera, etc, etcetera. They're looking forward to welcoming Mr. Witkoff back to Moscow. So, so just as Russia is overtly stating whether or not it's actually real or there's any plans for it, but Russia is talking about America becoming more involved in the diplomacy. The American diplomatic seat is, is allowed to be vacated. Okay, so maybe Ms. Davis has gone for her own reasons, but, but the US Administration hasn't backfilled her, which may be because they're not interested. It might be because they're trying to send a signal. I don't know. I'm just, I just posit it that actually perhaps Lavrov and co. Are suggesting the US Is, is much more interested in the diplomacy of this war than, than they are in reality.

[Francis Durnley]

Perhaps. But I, I feel that, you know, to not have an ambassador speaking to one of the most important capitals in the world today, it's a pretty significant oversight. And I assume that they're going to find somebody else to fill that interim role that she was filling pretty sharpish. But nonetheless, the fact that it hasn't been lined up in advance, I think it just, it tells its own story. We'll see.

[David Knowles]

Sure. Europe could volunteer soon.

[Francis Durnley]

Oh, I'm sure. I'm sure that there'll be many names that could be put forward if they were in the position to do so. But a couple of quick updates before we go to James in Germany. Turkey's reaffirmed its readiness, readiness to mediate peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. I just mentioned that because, of course, we're about to enter the Ankara summit very shortly. So that will be interesting to see whether Turkey is trying to become a key player in this now that the trilateral talks have broken down. Lots of jostling going on at the moment because of the Iran settlement and indeed the collapse of those trilateral talks. So watch this space, as it were. And just lastly, our friends at Politico report that Serbia's president, Alexander Vucic, another Alexander, not to be confused with Mr. Lukashenko, has announced that he will resign in the coming weeks, triggering early presidential and parliamentary elections before his final term was due to end in 2027. Now, as we've just discussed before, he was warm towards Moscow, partly perhaps because Serbia is very reliant on Russian energy. Vucic's government has also facilitated some support for Kyiv, too, which I think is worth just taking a moment to reflect on. At least. This follows months, I'd say, actually, well, over probably a year and a half now of student led protests following a story we reported on the time, a station roof collapse which killed 16 people. So this has been rumbling on and tensions and anger in the country for some time, which I'm sure has played a role here. It's too early to say what the possible result will be, what the impact will be, if any. That's significance to the war in Ukraine, but nonetheless the Balkans, we've touched on it before, an important place for Russia, historically important relationships there. Something else is changing in that region.

[David Knowles]

All right, thanks, Francis. Hold that thought. Stay there please. For final thoughts, let's now turn to James Rothwell, Berlin correspondent. Hi James, like to talk to you about your, well, a number of recent articles you've done really about NATO's preparedness, particularly in the Baltic area for any potential future conflict with Russia. But before we do that, could you just bring us the latest on this story that the breaking news at the moment about this shooting in northwest Germany in Stad. Five dead we hear. What's the latest there? Hi, James.

[James Rothwell]

James Hello, Dom. Yes, that's right. Five people have been killed and several others injured at a mass shooting in Staad, as you say, a town in northwestern Germany. It's taken place at a youth center, police say, and two people have been arrested, including the suspected shooter. Beyond that, at the moment, we don't actually know a great deal. We're trying as all other media outlets are, to get the get to the bottom of it. There's obviously some suspicion at this stage that it might be terrorism related, but that hasn't been confirmed yet. So we are just trying to find out more.

[Dom Nicholls]

Great.

[David Knowles]

Thanks, James. Now, we mentioned that because it is breaking news, we're not in any way trying to at this stage try and link it to Russia or anything like that. We're not going conspiracy theory nuts. However, there has been thought that with Putin's problems in Ukraine that he might try so called horizontal escalation that is a hernia of violence somewhere else potentially against a NATO member, which is why you've been looking at the defenses up and down the sort of eastern flank or the front line if you like, of NATO against Russia. Take us to the Baltic. First of all, please, what have you been looking at there and what comments have you got about the potential preparedness for any future attack?

[James Rothwell]

Yes, that's right. So I took part in a NATO exercise on Russia's doorstep, really on the, on the Latvian coast. I was with the US Navy seabees with Captain Alan Willie, looking at the construction of boat ramps and the kind of logistical bread and butter, I guess you could say, that would be needed to defend the eastern flank. It was a US military led exercise and that of course, is what made it very interesting because of all that speculation of Trump led disengagement from NATO at the moment. And we also saw a demolitions explosive demonstration from the US Marine Corps as well. It wasn't immediately clear what sort of practical application that that had to defending NATO's eastern flank, or at least I wasn't sure at the time. But we spoke to the Marines afterwards and they explained that you might need to that and Dom, you'll know way more about this than I do, but they said that you might need to, for example, blow up an obstruction in a road, for example, if you're trying to move troops or equipment through it. So it was about NATO, it was about defence of the eastern flank. But we were looking at it all, if you like, through a kind of prism of logistics, which is also perhaps not the most dramatic side of combat, but is also very important.

[David Knowles]

Absolutely right. Amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics, as the logisticians always kept saying to me. Right, let's have a little look at your fans film.

[Dom Nicholls]

I'm here on NATO's eastern flank in Latvia, where the US military is taking part in a major exercise, flexing its muscles and practicing how it would defend this region in the event of a conflict with Russia. Behind me, what you can see is a concrete ramp, the concrete's not been poured quite yet, which would be used for the rapid transport of ships and vessels, boats, in order to reinforce this region. And of course in Washington there's a lot of talk about the idea, idea that the United States is disengaging from European security. But that's not what we're seeing here at Baltops, an exercise which is involving thousands of sailors and the US Marines as well, in order to figure out how to better defend this region. And it's particularly relevant at the moment, of course, with that debate in the UK about funding cuts and the lack of funding for the British armed forces. What we're seeing here actually is very, very large deployment, deployment of US troops very committed to defence of the eastern flank of NATO. And we're going to see a bit more today on the type of logistical defences that are being put in place. I'm here with Captain Alan Willey, the commander of the 22nd Naval Construction Regiment. And we're here to learn a little bit more about this ramp here, which As I understand it would be used for the range, rapid deployment of boats and vessels in order to defend the eastern flank of NATO here in Latvia. Captain, thank you very much for joining us. Could you just explain to us how this ramp works and why it's important?

[Tim Spengler]

The ramp gives a stable foundation for the deployment of surface vessels into the water and the recovery of surface vessels in the water. And particularly what we're leaving here in is a replica of something larger that would happen in an amphibious event where the Seabees would come and build something larger for more tracked equipment and larger vessels that have to come in on a roll on, roll off type of ship and bring into land for onward movement.

[Dom Nicholls]

And in the context of NATO, in the context of defense, when we talk about an amphibious event, do we mean sort of providing reinforcements to the Latvians, for example?

[Tim Spengler]

Well, if you take the. The entire concept of advanced basing operations, where forces are flowing into a particular theater such as the Baltic Sea region, this models activity coming from shore, it models activity coming from rail at model all activity coming from, you know, routes, communication routes, or msrs roadways, and coming into a base camp where the folks that are supporting the arrival of all of that equipment so that it can be onward moved to a location where it's going to be utilized tactically. So it's really a staging area and an onward movement area and a birthing area and support area for forces deploying in any region. And that could be throughout the Baltic region. But the Latvians have been a gracious host to host these smaller facilities that mimic larger facilities that would go in a larger campaign so that the skills are integrated with forces that are participating, get the interoperability and the communications. Everybody's working together. So it's build those foundational skills. So when called upon, it's very efficient and effective deployment of that enabling activity.

[Dom Nicholls]

And you've been in the Navy for four decades. Logistics is the. Some people would say it's the backbone of military preparation. It's perhaps not the most sort of dramatic part of the military. But could you just explain why it's so important for NATO?

[Tim Spengler]

It's the critical part because without the delivery of the people and the assets to do the harmful work that is inside of any operation or mission, it just cannot be accomplished. So these enabling logistics nodes have to be trained on, have to be understood about the gaps and seams that are created in peacetime so that you can overcome those challenges when you're in a hectic environment.

[Dom Nicholls]

Earlier today, we saw the US Navy, the Sea bees. That's bees, as in buzzing, working on their skills in constructing some rapidly constructible huts, as well as a loading ramp, which would be used for the rapid disembarkment of ships, for example, if they need to, to disembark onto one of the Baltic Sea islands. And now we're with the U.S. marine Corps and we're watching something slightly different with the Marines, which is some ordnance disposal. So it's a very, very large scale exercise. And of course, it's a demonstration of American commitment to NATO security interests here in Latvia on the eastern flank of NATO. Well, I'm here with Master Sergeant Corey Buchman from the US Marine Corps. He's from the Combat Logistics Battalion. And we are here in basically a very, very muddy field here in western Latvia. And we're about to watch some ordnance disposal, which in layman's terms means there's about to be a very big bang with some C4. Mr. Buckman, thank you for joining me. Could you just walk us through the demonstration that we're about to see?

[Chris Guillebeau]

Of course. So today we're out here demonstrating some of our capabilities with explosive tools and explosive characters and training to our standards and readiness, and also as well as some integrated training with the Portuguese eod.

[Dom Nicholls]

Understood. And what are the main skills that you're trying to hone when you're doing an exercise like this?

[Chris Guillebeau]

So during the exercise, we're exercising our ability to integrate and operate with host nation forces as well as partner forces, and really trying to hone the interoperability and communication that we have with our counterparts.

[Dom Nicholls]

Is there anything specific about training in Latvia that surprised you? And have you found it useful to do some training with your Latvian and your Portuguese logistics colleagues?

[Chris Guillebeau]

So the thing that's been the most interesting is the amount that we actually have in common when it comes to our capabilities and the way we communicate with each other. And it's been great to be able to do that and see how similar we are when it comes to our capabilities and limitations.

[James Rothwell]

And have you had a warm welcome

[Dom Nicholls]

from the Latvians on this exercise?

[Chris Guillebeau]

Absolutely. It's been great.

[Dom Nicholls]

Glad to hear it. Well, we're now going to watch this demonstration. This is why I'm kitted out, by

[James Rothwell]

the way, and all of this ppe,

[Dom Nicholls]

just in case anything goes awry, which I'm sure it won't. And now we're going to watch that ordnance disposal exercise.

[David Knowles]

Burn the hole.

[Tim Spengler]

Burn the hole. Burn the hole.

[Francis Durnley]

Well, thanks for that report, James. And we'll of course, link to the full story in the show Notes, which has more descriptions of your experiences there. But I wanted to ask about the Luftwaffe, and not in a Second World War context, but the contemporary Luftwaffe, because you had a world exclusive with the fourth chief. What did he have to say?

[James Rothwell]

That's right. We spoke to Holger Neumann, who was the chief of the Luftwaffe, and it was an absolutely fascinating interview. It was part of our special series on European rearmament, which has looked at German military preparation in various areas. It's looked at the gun factories which are churning out many, many more weapons. It's looked at Friedrich Metz, the German chancellor, vowing to turn the German military into the strongest conventional army in Europe. And of course, to get a sort of closer look at that, we wanted to speak to a military chief. And the headline, if you like, of the story was, the head of the Luftwaffe vowing that Germany is already ready to fight tonight. This is very much the kind of buzzword in NATO circles at the moment. It means that you are ready to fight immediately, essentially, should there be an attack on NATO territory. There was another line in this interview which we featured very, very high up. I think the second or third sentence, which was about targets in Russia that NATO might strike if it were to respond defensively to a Russian attack. Now, that was what ca really, really, really big amount of noise in Germany itself because of the domestic political situation over here. It was very, very controversial, with the head of the Luftwaffe getting sort of a lot of criticism, but also a lot of plaudits from people in military circles and beyond about his decision to name in that interview several actual targets that would be struck by NATO should there be a conflict. One was the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. Another was naval assets in St. Petersburg, the Kola Peninsula, massive Russian nuclear weapons stockpile. He cited that as well. So it was an interview which, for us, as a British newspaper, looked very closely at German rearmament. But he also looked at what you might say was a kind of unexpected glimpse into what a conflict between NATO and Russia might look like with those specific targets being mentioned. So it caused a big splash here in the UK or rather over here in Germany, but also a big splash with you guys in London as well.

[Francis Durnley]

Well, congratulations for that scoop, and I say we'll link to that piece as well in the show notes James. But sticking with this theme of German rearmament, another story that's caught headlines here too, as well as in Germany is of course, that Berlin is considering the return of military conscription. Perhaps you could just expand a little bit on Some of the conversations around it's a very controversial area indeed in Germany.

[James Rothwell]

That's right, very controversial idea in Germany. A country that used to have conscription and then got rid of it over a decade ago, partly because it was so, so unpopular. Now it might be coming back under German Chancellor Friedrich Metz. And we're kind of seeing what some might say is perhaps a bit of a slippery slope towards conscription in Germany. There was a big new reform package announced recently on military service, not conscription, which will require German men turning 18 to fill in a compulsory questionnaire about their level of interest in joining the military. So that's not the same as conscription, but it's perhaps opening to it. The German government says if that system doesn't bring in enough recruits, then they may have to move to conscription in the future. And that's what's causing a lot of concern, a lot of anxiety, particularly amongst young Germans, many of whom still very much of the view that Germany is a country that should not be fighting wars due to its 20th century past. And we also had Boris Pistorius, the German Defense Minister, kind of hinting really during a recent visit to Lithuania, where a German brigade is stationed, conscription might even be necessary in order to bring up the numbers of that permanent overseas deployment. So it's a very, very hot topic in Germany.

[David Knowles]

Thanks, James. Now, last one for me before we get a final thoughts. NATO 2035 says that we're going to be spending 5% of GDP on defense cost, 3.5% on heavy metal, 1.5% on defense related infrastructure. Now I know Germany has been been looking at that bit, the infrastructure bit quite keenly because it's come to recognise that a lot of the roads and bridges and what have you, particularly in the east, are no longer really fit for the sheer weight, very simply, of a lot of the armored vehicles that might need to be transported east in the event of a punch up. So what's Germany been looking at here? I know the trains in particular, we take great delight here in the UK saying that our trains are the worst in Europe, but I know that Germany is actually vying for that position. So what's been happening there on the infrastructure front?

[James Rothwell]

Yes, that's right. Germany for some reason seems to be fighting very hard to steal the awful trains crown from the United Kingdom. There's actually some statistics out there which already show if you look at long distance trains specifically, that German trains are now worse than British trains, which is a pretty extraordinary state of affairs. And you're absolutely right, Don, to link this to the wider discussion about infrastructure in Germany, because this country, as a NATO ally, would serve as a very important kind of transit hub for troops and military equipment going to the eastern flank. So they've got to get, as they say they will, their infrastructure back into shape. That's why there's a 500 billion euro special fund being set up to try and rebuild the crumbling roads and railways. This weekend. We. We really got a pretty heavy dose in Germany of, like, why there's such urgent work needed on the trains. I was actually down at Berlin Central train station on Friday just as the heat wave was starting to climb up to its peak over here, and just extraordinary number of trains had been cancelled completely or were very severely delayed. You got people sweltering on the platform. You've got people really sweltering in the train carriages because the air conditioning for some reason went down on a lot of these German trains over the weekend as well. It gives you a bit of a hint as to not just the sort of railways themselves being part of the problem, but perhaps, dare I say it, and it's almost sacrilege, of course, to say it, but perhaps German engineering itself is starting to be part of the problem. This, of course, would be unheard of a couple of decades ago, but there's a real issue with a lack of investment in Germany, in infrastructure over many decades, and the consequences of that are really starting to bite. Friedrich Merz, as I said, has got a special fund to try and reverse that trend. But could it be too late?

[David Knowles]

Well, Frick mein alte Stiffel.

[Francis Durnley]

What makes a leader worth following?

[Tim Spengler]

What should you really care about in your job? As technology is changing so quickly, Is

[James Rothwell]

it just gonna be about machines talking to other machines?

[Francis Durnley]

I mean, should you quit your job and start something on your own, what would that take?

[Tim Spengler]

What does success and risk look like when we're all at the starting gate together?

[Francis Durnley]

These are the questions we answer each week on Lead Human with Jack Myers and Tim Spangler.

[Tim Spengler]

Join us each week and subscribe at your favorite podcast platform and YouTube.

[Francis Durnley]

We'll tell stories, we'll hear from some of the best, and we'll try to figure this out together.

[David Knowles]

Francis, good time for us to go to final thoughts.

[Francis Durnley]

Well, it is rather, because I had a rather hellish experience on the British Trail network trying to get to Chalk History Festival over the weekend. But we made it and we had a fantastic session. It was a full house, I think, about eight or 900 people in the session where we were talking not only about the last year of the war since last year's festival. But also we were joined by a frontline medic and a frontline drone operator as well. And we're very grateful to them as well as to everybody who made the effort to come. And I also spent the evening of Saturday at the Ukrainian Institute garden party. So as ever, it's a humbling experience, speaking to those of you who've been with us for many years, or indeed our new listeners. And a thanks as well, of course, to Roland, Alex, and the team here who steered things so valiantly while we were off.

[David Knowles]

They did. Yes. Thanks everybody. And thanks for all those who came to chat at Chalk. It was brilliant. Lovely to see you all. James from Berlin, what final thoughts do you have for our audience today?

[James Rothwell]

I think that it's worth keeping an eye on the Baltic States. I know, I know I've said this a lot, but as Berlin correspondent, I'm very much a Baltic dude and I consider that region to be very, very important. I was going, as we call it, below the line with a lot of our readers in the comments on that story that I wrote recently about the Baltic states. And I think one of the very kind of pertinent questions that a lot of readers kept putting to me was if the Russians are doing so badly in Ukraine, why the hell are you writing all these stories from the Baltic states about the risk of some kind of provocation over there? Surely considering how badly they said the Russians are doing against the Ukrainians, they wouldn't dare try it on NATO's eastern flank. And I think the real point here when we talk about concerns of a provocation on the eastern flank is not that there would be a kind of full scale Russian invasion of the Union, Soviet, same sort of thing that we saw in February 2022. What we're looking at, and I know, Dom, you know, we touched on this actually fairly recently when we played your parlor game breach or reach, if you remember that, whether something was an article.

[Francis Durnley]

Fan favorite.

[James Rothwell]

Yeah, exactly. The fan favorite. We kind of touched on it there.

[Dom Nicholls]

Right.

[James Rothwell]

Which is that, you know, you don't need to amass a massive army on the border of Estonia and then send everybody in in order to completely present an existential test to NATO's willingness to come to the defense of its allies. So we talked about this at length. I remember, you know, a relatively small scale incursion into a single town. And that is the scenario that a lot of Western officials are talking about now that could potentially test to destruction NATO's willingness to respond.

[Francis Durnley]

Can I Have a second final thought, Tom, very quick one.

[David Knowles]

Go on.

[Chris Guillebeau]

Then.

[Francis Durnley]

Just to that point, somebody said to me at chalk, what does it matter? Britain's an island, you know, Russia is doing so badly in Ukraine. Why do we need to ramp up our defence spending now? And I said to him, don't forget, Britain's border, in essence, is the Baltics, is Poland, it's Germany, it's all of these countries because of Article 5. And that simple point, I think, is quite often lost on many people. And why is it lost on people? Because our politicians don't talk about it. And that is, I think, one of the biggest mistakes that we've seen over the last few years.

[David Knowles]

Well, there was an interview. Radislav Sikorski, Poland's Foreign Minister, gave an interview to BBC Newsnight over the weekend. It was talking about all this. And Mr. Sikorski Gorski, he said, Britain's welfare budget is 634 billion pounds. Our defense budget is about 60 billion pounds a year. He said, how lucky you are, how lucky you are not to have any threats that you can have this disparity in funding. He said, how lucky you are that you don't have Russian submarines sneaking around your coastline snipping undersea cables. How lucky you are you don't have your Prime Minister's house subject to an arson attack. How lucky you are you don't have assassinations on your territory. Litvinenko in a temptation attempted assassination script out with nerve agent poisoning. How lucky you are not to have all these threats. I think he might have had his tongue in his cheek. Anyway, thanks guys. Francis, thank you very much for today. James, delighted to see you. Thank you very much indeed. Thanks for the news from Berlin. We will speak again soon. We'll be back in tomorrow folks, same time, same place. Do hope you can join us, but from the Telegraph newsroom here in London, I wish you all a very good afternoon.

[Francis Durnley]

Danker, Ukraine the latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph created by David Knowles. Every episode featuring us in the studio maps and battlefield footage is now available to watch on our YouTube channel. [e-mail] crane the latest there's a link in the description. If you appreciate our work, please consider following Ukraine the latest on your preferred podcast podcast app and leave us a review as it helps others find the show. Please also share it with those who may not be aware we exist. You can also get in touch directly to ask questions or give comments by emailing ukrainepodelegraph.co.uk we continue to read every message. You can also contact us directly on X. You'll find our handles in the description. As ever, we're especially interested to hear where you're listening to from around the world. And finally, to support our work and stay on top of all of our Ukraine news, analysis and dispatches from the ground, please subscribe to the Telegraph. You can get one month for free, then two months for just one pound at www.telegraph.co.uk Ukraine the latest Ukraine the Latest was Today produced by Rachel Porter. Executive producers are Francis Dernley, Louise Wells and David Knowles.

[David Knowles]

My name is David Knowles.

[Dom Nicholls]

Thank you all for listening.

[David Knowles]

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