← Ukraine: The Latest
Ukraine: The Latest
Putin ‘has started World War III’, says Zelensky on eve of invasion’s fourth anniversary
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Francis Dernley
I'm Francis Dernley.
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David Knowles
I'm Don Nichols.
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Adeli Bejwin Ponce
And I'm Adeli Bejwin Ponce.
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Francis Dernley
And this is Ukraine, the latest today in a historic week for Europe. We bring you the latest news live from London and Ukraine.
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David Knowles
What better way to show our continued commitment to covering the war in Ukraine than by starting a video podcast? And where better to do it than here in the country? We've come over the fourth anniversary since the full scale invasion started. Not to mark the anniversary. We'll leave that to those outlets that don't look at this thing every day. But we've come to take the temperature of civilians and soldiers alike. Get an update on the operational situation. See how the attacks on energy infrastructure are impacting people in their daily lives. And just take the temperature of Ukraine at the start of year five of this war. Thanks for sticking with us.
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Adeli Bejwin Ponce
We've just arrived in Ukraine this morning. It's a beautiful day out here. The temperature is a lot warmer than it's been in the last few weeks. The sun is shining and snow is thawing in the streets. But that doesn't mean the energy crisis is over. For thousands of people across the country, the war has come to their living rooms, making survival every day harder. We'll be reporting from different parts of the country over the next few days. Stay with us.
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Francis Dernley
Bravery takes you through the most unimaginable
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David Knowles
hardships to finally reward you with victory.
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Francis Dernley
Russia does not want peace.
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David Knowles
If I'm president, I will have that war settled. Settled in one day, 24 hours. We are with you. Not just today or tomorrow, but for a hundred years.
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James Crisp
Nobody's going to break us.
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David Knowles
We are strong.
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James Crisp
We are Ukrainians.
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Francis Dernley
It's Monday the 23rd of February, three years and 365 days since the full scale invasion began. And today further to Adalyn Dom in Ukraine. I'm joined here in London by the Telegraph's Europe editor James Crisp and our chief foreign affairs commentator David Blair, who was in number 10 Downing street at the time of the full scale invasion. Just a reminder, you can now watch every episode of the podcast featuring our dispatches on the ground maps and battlefield footage on our YouTube channel Crane. The latest you'll find a link in the show Notes in today's updates. More bombardments on both Ukraine and Russia. An explosive device that killed a police officer in Lviv and injured dozens of others and and President Zelenskyy claims Ukrainian forces have liberated 300 square kilometers in the south. But first, the military updates despite the ongoing peace talks, as the anniversary week begins, there are the usual Russian bombardments on Ukraine. There were explosions at around 4am local time on Sunday in Kyiv, followed by successive blasts at regular intervals before the air alert ended at around 8am One man was killed and eight people were pulled from under the rubble after the ballistic missile strike which set a multi story residential building ablaze. At least 15 people were injured across Ukraine overnight in Russian missile and drone attacks on Odesa and Sumy, which also hit apartment blocks, houses, a warehouse, energy substations and a school. In Kherson, a drone attacked a civilian minibus, injuring three, including its 71 year old driver. Russia also targeted Ukraine's energy infrastructure causing power blackouts as temperatures are still consistently around minus 10 degrees Celsius. But the major story over the weekend was in Lviv in the west of the country where a Ukrainian woman has been arrested after a bombing killed a female police officer and injured dozens more people. A homemade explosive device placed in a waste bin detonated in the western city's historic Old Town in the early hours of Sunday after police arrived to investigate a reported break in as backup units arrived to help A second device exploded, causing the majority of the casualties. Up to 25 people were injured, we understand, including 11 who were taken to hospital. Six law enforcement officers were left in a serious condition. The police officer killed in the attack has been named as Victoria Spilke. She married a fellow police officer just last Autumn. She's just 23. The interior minister said there is every reason to believe that this crime was committed on the orders of Russia. This is not the first time the enemy has purposefully created deadly traps for Ukrainian law enforcement officers and used our recruited citizens to do so. So that's just a comment there on some of the hybrid warfare tactics that we know Moscow have deployed now throughout the years for all sorts of reasons, many of which we've talked about in the podcast previously. Perhaps unsurprisingly though, it's UKRA which has been keen to project the sense that it's them who have the initiative. As we enter this historic week, more information has been revealed about the extraordinary operation that saw Kyiv hit a factory that produces some of Moscow's most sophisticated ballistic missile Systems, more than 1,400 kilometers behind Russian lines. The Ukrainian General Staff said in a statement that Flamingo ground launch cruise missiles were used to hit the Vodkinsk Machine Building plant, one of Russia's most important facilities for those ballistic missiles, including short range Mobilis Skander air missiles, which we've talked about many, many times on the podcast, as well as those vaunted intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads all the way to the United States. The last time Dom Adlee and I were all together in Ukraine was the first case of an intercontinental ballistic missile fired on Ukraine. And what was quite noteworthy about that is people were very aware that this was a significant moment, but once it had happened, everybody just adjusted. And there have been several instances of this happening since. Another signal really from MOSC that they're capable of doing these things, but it doesn't necessarily mark a huge shift in the war. But nonetheless, lots of commentary about this significant attack on a Russian target by the Ukrainians. Now, just as a reminder, the Flamingo is Ukraine's domestically made flagship missile with a range of up to 3000km. Other strikes on Russia included the city of Belgorod, again, where officials said a large scale missile strike caused significant damage to infrastructure there. The governor said the city is facing disruptions to electricity, water supply and heating. Footage circulating on public channels showed blasts across the city, while witnesses said large parts of Belgorod were left in darkness. Dozens of Ukrainian drones also targeted Moscow yesterday, triggering closures at all four of the region's airports, according to officials. Now we've talked before about just how expensive that is for Moscow when you're forced to shut down your airports, as well as it being hugely politically embarrassing domestically at home when this is a war that was meant to be be over in just three days, lest we forget. And they can't even call it a war. It's a special military operation still to this day. Now there were also sizeable attacks over the weekend on multiple Russian military command posts and logistic hubs in Russian occupied territories. Several targets were reportedly hit in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including a drone command post near the town of Zlatopil, a logistics warehouse near the village of Bovdanivka, and a repair base near the village of Rozivka in occupied parts of Kherson Oblast. The Ukrainians also reportedly hit an observation post and troop concentration area near Lyubymivka. There were also two warehouses hit in occupied Crimea. But let's go next to the battlefield. President Zelenskyy has claimed that Ukrainian forces have liberated more than 300 square kilometers of territory from Russian occupation in that new southern counteroffensive, their term, which we've been reporting on as Ukraine seeks to capitalize on the Russian loss of Starlink. SpaceX blocked it over the last week and a half or so. I won't go into too many details, zelenskyy said. But today I can congratulate our army first and foremost, all the defence forces, because 300 square kilometers have been liberated. And just to end with the military updates as reported by our friends at the Institute for the Study of War, the US based think tank Open source material suggests Ukrainian forces have liberated multiple settlements around the Dnipropetrovsk Zaporizhzhia Oblast administrative bor in the last fortnight or so. The ISW cites a Russian Mill blogger as acknowledging Ukrainian forces advanced east of Novopravlivka, and geolocated footage indicates progress southeast of Oleksandriivka and likely liberating settlements such as Orestipil, among others. So that's where we are in the military realm today. But let's turn now to updates in the political world. And I'm going to bring in the Telegraph's Europe editor James Crisp and our chief foreign affairs commenter David Blair. Thank you both very much for coming on the podcast cast again today and in full Technicolor for the first time. Not sure if that's a Good thing or not. Indeed. Well, we'll come to the latest on the energy row that's ongoing between Hungary, Slovakia and Ukraine in a moment. But first of all, because I was talking about President Zelensky a moment ago and an interview that he gave over the weekend. He also said this as part of his conversations approaching this historic milestone, saying Putin has already started World War 3. He said the question now is how much territory he's able to seize and how to stop him. Russia wants to impose on the world a different way of life and change the lives people have chosen for themselves. So, James, first of all, fundamentally, after four years now of war, Europe's bloodiest since the Second World War, is that how this conflict is viewed from Brussels?
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James Crisp
I mean, I think even among those leaders and politicians who would sort of shy away from using that language, the decisions that are being made kind of reflect how seriously it's being taken. You know, there is recognition in Brussels. It's almost a sort of a commonplace that diplomats and envoys will say, look, you know, the Ukrainians are dying, so we don't have to, you know, they are the buffer. It is not a sort of a taboo idea to suggest that, you know, Russia could push on into the Baltic states if the Baltic states weren't part of NATO, of course. So there is no question that, you know, after a long sort of period of naivety, when you look at the Minsk Accords and you look at what happened to Georgia and all of the sort of Russian aggression and misinformation in the region, even what happened in, you know, Salisbury, that people see this as a genuine threat. And to the extent that certain things which would never have been thought of before in the EU are now talked about in very clear sighted terms, not least Ukraine joining the eu, I mean, the original relationship agreement that was drawn up before the invasion was specifically designed to keep Ukraine out of the eu. It's like, give them something. But not full membership. We're not going to go that far. No one wants it. That's changed now. You know, okay, yes, you have outliers, you have your hungaries, your Slovakias, you have kind of a soft underbelly. But, you know, there is more broadly speaking, a belief that Ukraine will one day become a member of the eu. And that's huge because if Ukraine becomes a member of the eu, so does a lot of the western Balkan countries. Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro. I mean, there's even talk now about Iceland turning its membership of the European Economic Area into full membership, not because of Putin, but Because Donald Trump keeps on calling Iceland Greenland and Greenland Iceland. So you can sort of understand why they're getting a little bit worried. So I think, you know, if Ukraine joins, and the only reason Ukraine would join is there's a direct consequence of Russian aggression against Europe. I mean, I think we're talking about something as, you know, a shift as big certainly as the 2004 Big Bang Enlargement and probably as big as the fall of the Berlin Wall in terms of what it means for European politics. You know, Ukraine has a large population that could in the future shift the dial on EU decision making. It could mean, you know, you start talking about Ukraine and Poland maybe working together on EU files. That's kind of a game changer and that's without even thinking about the step change in attitudes towards defence. There's a real push in EU circles and we've said this before, that the EU does take a long time to get going, but when it gets going, once that sort of tanker is turned around, it can build up speed and it can build up momentum. It had a slow start in responding to the coronavirus crisis with the vaccines, but eventually it was the biggest exporter of vaccines in the world. They're going to try and do something similar on defense and defense manufacturing. I'm not saying any of this is going to be easy or simple or there won't be mess ups. There will certainly be things which frustrate us in Britain as well as is sort of traditional. But I think if you think we're now entering the fifth year and if you cast your mind back to all the talk about war weariness, you cast your mind back to Olaf Scholz talking about or maybe sending some helmets and some pillows to you.
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Francis Dernley
5,000 helmets. I remember it well.
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James Crisp
You know, we're in a very different space to that and I think you have to actually say, to be fair to the EU at a time when the Americans have kind of gone, I don't know, I'm European, it doesn't matter, I can call them rogue. If I was US Editor, I wouldn't say they've gone rogue, they've gone mad or whatever. You know, I think Europe has stood up to a degree and include Britain in that and helped to certainly with aid and is going to try and do more on weapons. And I think that that is a real difference and I think it's the sort of thing that you couldn't see doing unless you thought that there was a serious, almost existential threat. People in Brussels always say the same thing. You know, what Europe needs is a crisis. The only time we ever do anything is when there's a real crisis. You know, migrant crisis, Eurozone crisis, all of those things. The answers to every crisis in Brussels is, oh, well, we must have more Europe. More Europe is the answer. Okay, well, in this case, we're talking about quite a lot more Europe. We're talking 27 member states to maybe another 10. Right? It's six Western Balkan countries, plus Iceland, plus Ukraine. Okay, not quite 10, but a lot more. And it's not just Russia. Okay? You know, there's the threat of China and there's the fact that the US is now seen as far more unreliable. But there is a real sort of, I think, belief that Europe as a whole, not just eu, but has to be able to take responsibility for its own security. And I don't think that was the case. It certainly hasn't been the case for most of our lives.
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Francis Dernley
So there has been a change, but is it enough? I think that's very much an open question given just how horrific this war continues to be. But David, you were there in number 10 Downing street when this all began. I remember this time a year ago. You were sharing your memories of that, that opening day. And perhaps you can just very briefly remind us of that. But I'm also really interested to hear what happened next. What was the sense of momentum after the full scale invasion happened and it became obvious that Ukraine was going to survive? Because it was not clear, was it, when it began?
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David Knowles
No. And on day one, it's well known that the British and the Americans knew that the invasion was coming. So it wasn't a shock. We'd have been expecting this. But even so, when it happened, there was a great sense of the enormity of what had just fallen, fallen upon the people of Ukraine and the stakes as well. And while the invasion had been foreseen, the general view among European leaders and the experts who advised them was that Russia would probably achieve a pretty swift victory. They would at the very least conquer Ukraine, conquer Kyiv and overthrow Zelensky. And the general view was that Ukraine would not last very long. So on the 25th of February, I remember hearing the leader of a certain European country saying, in the coming days or even hours, a free Ukraine may no longer exist. And that was a general view. I should say that there was one person who thought differently, and that was Boris Johnson. He believed from the very beginning that Putin had made a colossal error by attacking Ukraine and he thought the Ukrainians were going to hold out and it's very interesting that over the week that followed the invasion, it became clear that the Russian plan was a mess. It was being incredibly incompetently executed. The assaults on Kharkiv and Kiev quickly began to go wrong. And it was obvious that the Ukrainians were not just fighting back, but fighting back very effectively. And of course, Zelensky famously did not flee Kiev and stayed in his capital. And it became clear that the forecast, the general expert forecast of what was likely to happen was proving to be wrong, but proving to be wrong in a way that was, from our point of view, immensely encouraging. And if you look at a speech that Boris Johnson gave in Warsaw on the 1st of March, so day six of the full scale invasion, and you'll see he says there, the Ukrainians have succeeded in snarling up the attack on Kharkiv and Kyiv. And he says they're putting up his phrase, a tenacious and astonishing resistance. And suddenly it became clear to European leaders, look, it's worth supplying them with weapons because they're doing quite well. And it was that simple fact that Ukraine was succeeding in defending itself that opened the floodgates for Europe to actually step up and start supplying weapons.
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Francis Dernley
What's your sense in number 10 at the time that if Britain, Boris Johnson, with his theatricality and view that you've just articulated on this, if he hadn't have done that, that Europe would have not been as proactive as it ultimately became. How critical do you think that was when the history books are written? Do you think that London had a key role to play?
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David Knowles
The most important thing was Ukraine's success in resisting the onslaught and Zelenskyy's bravery in staying in Kiev, even when people were urging him to get out. So that was the most important thing. But yes, I think the fact that Boris Johnson had sent 2,000 anti tank missiles actually a month before the invasion. Now, we weren't the first country to supply weapons to Ukraine, others had done that earlier, but we were the first country to do it openly just as the invasion was being threatened. And people were waiting to see whether that would actually make any difference. And I don't know if you remember, but it was the Daily Telegraph, which reported from a certain frontline position near Kharkiv. Our correspondent Roland Oliphant saw those British Ed Laws, he'll be on the podcast
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Francis Dernley
tomorrow telling us that that's right in
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David Knowles
the hands of Ukrainian soldiers. And then the Ukrainian soldiers very proudly showed him the wreckage of the Russian tanks that they'd just incinerated. Using those missiles. So it was a very extraordinary demonstration of how, if you sent these weapons, they really could make a difference. So before then, people had thought that if we were going to be arming Ukraine, perhaps what we'll end up arming is a guerrilla insurgency in an occupied country. But in the weeks following the invasion, it became clear that, no, no, no, what you're arming is a country fighting for its life, and you are supplying a war of national defense which could succeed. And that's a very different proposition. And it's much easier for countries to get behind arming a nation in that kind of situation.
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Francis Dernley
I think it's noteworthy, just as another political update from over the weekend, that the current British Defence Secretary, John Healey, has said that he hopes to be the Defense secretary puts troops on the ground in Ukraine after a ceasefire. Now, we've had this discussion countless times on the podcast about how helpful it is to be talking about after a ceasefire, because it may disincentivise Putin to actually stop fighting. But do you think that's a significant intervention, David?
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David Knowles
I think it's wishful thinking, because what he's really saying is, I wish this war would end soon.
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Francis Dernley
Don't we all.
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David Knowles
Because. And absolutely right that he should say that and because everyone wants that. And then once it's over, of course, under the emerging agreement that may or may not succeed, if it were to happen, then British troops would go to Ukraine as part of the famous coalition of the willing. I still don't think it's being explained clearly enough what those soldiers will be there to do. I mean, I sometimes see them described as it would be a peacekeeping force. And of course, it wouldn't be anything of the sort. They wouldn't be impartial mediators between two sides. They would be there to guarantee Ukraine's security and to fight alongside Ukraine should there be, heaven forbid, a third invasion after any peace settlement.
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James Crisp
I mean, I think there's still a lot of people who I speak to, sort of European diplomats who would say that we don't actually think that Putin is serious about wanting a peace deal anyway. And I think that's view held in London as well. But a lot of the time when we're talking about these sort of European boots on the ground, it's kind of tapping Trump along. Right. You know, making sure, yes, we are listening to you, boss. Yes, we are going through the motions, but in the hope that realization will dawn that, that, you know, your interlocutor in these negotiations is not someone you can trust.
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Francis Dernley
Well, it's funny you should mention that, because that's gonna be the next story I was gonna talk about, which is, you've beaten me to it, James. So Steve Witkoff, the US Special envoy, a man we've spoken about on the podcast countless times over the last few months, he's given an interview with Fox News where he said that Putin has never been anything other than straight with him. He says, I say that and I get attacked. But that is an accurate statement. He's told me what his red lines are.
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James Crisp
I mean, well, I feel very relaxed that a man with such a razor sharp intellect is handling such an important negotiation.
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Francis Dernley
Indeed. And I think that this is just indicative really, of what the US View is of the Russian position at the moment, that they believe genuinely that there is a peace deal to be done and that Putin has been incentivized to stop this. But I think most of us here in this room and those who've been following the war closely would disagree very strongly with that in the way that you've just articulated.
- [24:33]
James Crisp
I mean, I think the problem is that Europe is shut out of these negotiations. We're on the sidelines talking about something which is happening on our continent, and we don't have any of the necessary tools to actually demand a seat on the table. We can just say, yes, please, please, please, please, listen to us. Trump doesn't care about that and neither does Putin. But, you know, this is the unfortunate and unforeseen sort of consequence of, you know, years of a peace dividend. You know, we don't have the hard power to demand a seat on the table, so perhaps our allies end up being on the menu.
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Francis Dernley
Now, we mentioned earlier on this ongoing row between Slovakia, Hungary and Ukraine over the Druzba pipeline, I'm not going to go over all of this again because we spoke about it quite in detail last week. But what is interesting is the development. The Hungary are now saying that they would be willing, willing to block the very important 90 billion euro package loan to Ukraine as a consequence of this. That does feel like quite an escalation, doesn't it?
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James Crisp
It is an escalation, but it's an escalation that Viktor Orban has pulled off many, many times in Brussels. If we had a penny for every time Hungary threatened to block something or delay something to do with Ukraine, we'd have a lot of pennies, basically. So he's doing this not for sort of grand geopolitical reasons, but very standard domestic political reasons. Hungary has an election on April 12. Viktor Orban is behind him of polls. Behind him are polls to a guy who is a more pro European but still pretty conservative. Conservative guy. Now, again, we've been down this road before. Viktor Orban frequently has challenges at election times and people in Brussels get very excited thinking, oh, we're finally going to get rid of the guy and then he ends up winning. It is possible that this time might be different. But what Orban's campaign, his election campaign is based around blocking Ukraine from joining the eu, which he would say is stopping Hungary from being drawn into the war. You know, this is why he opposes sanctions from time to time before he ultimately agrees them. He accuses the opposition because of their, you know, perceived Europhilia, to sort of be risking Hungarian security. There are some shocking videos, quite easy to find on Twitter about where they have a guy who looks like a Nazi SS guy executing a Hungarian soldier as a little girl cries. It's obviously it's been generated by AI and it says, you know, don't take any risks with a future vote. So, look, doing this is his way of saying to, not to people in Budapest. People in Budapest don't vote for Orban. It's people in the countryside who vote for him. It's saying to those people, you know, watch out, there could be a war. Vote for me. I mean, and you know, he's not an idiot, right? He is the EU's longest serving prime minister now. And I think for that they will find a way to give him something so that he can go back to Budapest and say, look what I've got from Brussels, I've won. And see, I mean, all of this stuff with Trump, the summit, the peace talk summit, if that was to happen just before an election, you've got little Hungary, what is it, 11 million people, something like that. Being the venue for this huge sort of geopolitical moment makes Viktor Orban look like a guy who can trot the world stage.
- [28:14]
Francis Dernley
They're still very, very keen for the that to take place. So I was in Budapest back in January, as listeners will recall, and that is something they kept pushing as they really, really want a summit. Doesn't have to be the summit, but a summit before April 12th.
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James Crisp
You've already got Donald Trump who's endorsed him, you've got Marco Rubio who's endorsed. And Viktor Orban was the only, I think, European leader to endorse Donald Trump in the before the US presidential election. So I mean, I think, look, you know, he is clearly a darling of sort of maga conservatives and I don't quite understand how a nationalist squares support or sort of, even if it's indirect support for another country invading another one. But you know, since when have politicians been consistent?
- [29:04]
Francis Dernley
You'll have to listen to the documentary that's coming down the track from, from us, James, because that's one of the subjects that we do a deeper dive into. I certainly felt I underst. Didn't sympathize with, but understood the Hungarian position much more clearly having been there and spent some time interviewing some of Mr. Orban's senior officials. And I think we'll have more on that probably within the next two or three weeks.
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James Crisp
Lots of strange arguments about language rights.
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Francis Dernley
Yes, indeed. Well, yes, that's some of the less scintillating discourse that we had whilst we were there. But nonetheless it is important for understanding their position. But also the Hungarian diaspora in Ukraine as well is very relevant to this. But before we turn to our next topic, a short dispatch in Ukraine.
- [29:47]
Adeli Bejwin Ponce
So this is our first day in reporting. We're in Odessa for the day and we've seen firsthand what it means to live through the energy crisis that's been unfolding in Ukraine for the last few weeks. Just behind me here is a tent where people have been gathering for some warm food, a cup of tea, a cup of coffee, charging their devices and power banks. Because the apartment buildings were in a big apartment complex in Odessa, most of them do not have either heating or electricity. And you can hear around me the churning of the generators. Actually when we came into the complex in front of every door there's a generator powering either the local shop on the ground floor or the lights by the staircase. There's a generator over there behind the tent that's helping it keep warm. And really what's been most striking to me is how noisy the energy crisis is because you have generators churning everywhere across the city. We've talked to several people, a young family with a two year old son, elderly residents of the apartment buildings, and they've all been telling us how hard it's been to live through the last few weeks. Most of them can't cook at home. They need to, you know, go to the shop every day. The young family we spoke to live on the street, 17th floor with a two year old. They've got to carry the pram and carry the baby up and down several times a day. It's been really, really hard. And now the sun is setting, it's almost nighttime and most people won't have electricity or heating to go through the night.
- [31:13]
Francis Dernley
But Bringing you back in, David. There's another story that we're reporting in the newspaper today, which is that Russian spies have turned properties across Western Europe into a network of Trojan horses designed to unleash a coordinated sabotage campaign. We'll link to this in the show. Notes this is coming senior intelligence officials. The feeling is that they're exploiting legal frameworks and purchasing very sensitive real estate close to military and civilian sites and at least a dozen European nations as part of this escalating hybrid war. I mean, when you were in number 10, David, do you think there was a sense then of just quite how serious the hybrid war could become if the war in Ukraine were allowed to persist? Because we've now seen drones entering European airspace, Poland, Germany, other countries, Article 5 itself potentially threatened. I mean, was this ever on the radar as being a possibility if the war was allowed to continue?
- [32:13]
David Knowles
Yes. And the question really was if Europe was going to start arming Ukraine en masse, as we hoped they would, how would Russia respond? How would they retaliate? And one of their options will be to conduct these kinds of operations on European sort of sabotage operations, all the things which have, in fact happened and to preempt that. You might remember that lots of European countries went about expelling Russian diplomats, clearing out Russian embassies in just about every European Union capital. We had already done that in 2018 after the Salisbury poisonings when we chucked out 23 Russian officials from London. The rest of Europe followed really on a really much bigger scale in 2022. And if I recall rightly, by the end of the year, some 600 Russian diplomats, many of them intelligence officers, under diplomatic cover, had been thrown out. And that was designed to make it much harder for the Russians to carry out this kind of campaign. But of course, you can't prevent it completely. And the latest steps that they're taking
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Francis Dernley
show how determined they are and arguably more dangerous. Dangerous as a tactic because they're using people who are far less capable, far less trained, but are just disposable individuals recruited from third countries.
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David Knowles
Yes. And they're overwhelming now, using people who are not under official cover of any kind. So on the one hand, that's more dangerous, but on the other hand, from our perspective, the fact that they're using untrained, untried people is probably less threatening than the alternative.
- [33:48]
Francis Dernley
A grisly milestone this week. We never want to make any predictions, but with your respective expertise, do you want to make any predictions in the European context about how much further Europe would be willing to go this year, James.
- [34:06]
James Crisp
And then, I mean, one thing I would say is that I'm a little bit concerned by how normalized talk of land for peace has become. I mean, there was a point where Matt was the reddest of red lines. And, you know, now it feels like that's almost taken for granted, that that's going to happen. It's more of a feeling than anything else. I think that's, you know, that is a worrying sort of development. But if it does lead to a kind of frozen conflict, then I think we see a lot of armoring. You know, a lot of the European nations building up their weaponry while doing it in a situation when, you know, public budgets are tight, inflation is still rising, partly because of the war in Ukraine, cost of living crisis and all of that. There's got to be a cultural shift. You know, people have got to be ready or sort of be more ready to think about the concept of their children being sent to die.
- [35:01]
Francis Dernley
Is your sense that European capitals think this war is going to end this year?
- [35:05]
James Crisp
No, no, I don't think they do. I think people think it will continue like this for some time, that Putin isn't serious for peace and serious about. And I mean, and that's why you have countries like France and Germany talking about conscription, why you have Friedrich Merz talking about asking for shelter underneath Trident or, you know, the force de frappe in France. You know, why there are discussions about, you know, how much further that umbrella can be, while at the same time a big part of the incorporation of Ukraine into the single market, which would. And EU membership, which would require a lot of rules to be sort of torn up and rewritten, you know, a lot of that will be based on defense cooperation. The idea that, you know, this expertise that Ukraine has learned at such high cost on the battlefield that they would start to train European armies and that for drones, the expertise they have in drones would start to flood into European arsenals. And in return, there's money and then there's more weapons. And it's just, it feels like it's all being done very much on the hoof. And I think as a continent, we still feel underprepared and underpowered. You know, there's, I think, and I include Ukraine within this. You know, there's a sense of small to middling powers risk of being squashed by the superpowers.
- [36:30]
Francis Dernley
Is that your instinct as well?
- [36:32]
David Knowles
David, one thing I'd add is a huge development in the last four years is that Ukraine has now become the foremost military power are in Europe. It's an extraordinary thing. Our premise four years ago was that Ukraine was militarily very weak and that that was why there were these pessimistic forecasts of a Russian military success. But when you think that Ukraine, without really having much of a navy, neutralized the Russian Black Sea fleet and drove it out of its home port of Sevastopol, Ukraine, without having much of an air force, denied Russia air superiority over its country from almost the first day of the war right up until now. And Ukraine, starting with an army that was quite weak in 2022, has now contained Russia to 20% of the country when of course, they began in 2022, controlling just under 10. So in fact they've actually added only just over 10, despite having lost. The latest estimate is a third of a million death. I mean, these are extraordinary military achievements. Which means that bringing Ukraine fully into the European security structure is overwhelmingly in Europe's interest too, because you're getting a very powerful ally which has mastered warfare as it is fought at high intensity today more than anyone else on the continent.
- [37:54]
James Crisp
Shame it can't join NATO.
- [37:55]
David Knowles
Well, perhaps this war will end with Ukraine being functionally a member of NATO to if not in name, then in fact,
- [38:17]
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James Crisp
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- [39:44]
David Knowles
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- [39:56]
Francis Dernley
Well, let's turn to our final thoughts now. Just a reminder for those of you listening to this that if you wanted to watch this and see our beautiful faces, then you can watch every episode from now on with our dispatches from the ground. Obviously, Dom and Adli are in Ukraine as we speak and we'll be traveling around the country all of this week, plus maps and battlefield footage, all on our YouTube channel, that is www.YouTube.com crane the latest you'll find a link in the show notes. And I promise you it is worth it, not least for seeing just how vast the distances involved are. Terms of those Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian missile sites, it was really just looking it on a map as we were last week when we were doing some trial runs, was extraordinary. So I do heartily recommend that you watch along. But let's now turn to our final thoughts now, an opportunity to leave our viewers and listeners with your final musings of the day. Where would you like to leave them?
- [40:59]
James Crisp
I suppose I've been thinking as we approach the anniversary quite a bit about Volodymyr Zelenskyy. And I think, you know, no one could fail to be impressed by the sort of the transformation this man went through after the invasion, this sort of apotheosis. He turned himself into, you know, a national figurehead and, you know, quite swiftly into an international figurehead as well. I mean, there were comparisons made with Churchill and other great leaders. He was touring around European capitals, either by video or input, addressing parliaments, making sure that those speeches spoke to those sort of national concerns as well. I mean, in Ireland he talked about the famine, for example. And I mean, I found his speeches very sort of moving and affecting. But, you know, it's been four years, right? Churchill, you know, he did it for five and was voted out afterwards. And how long can he sort of maintain that level? We've obviously we've had some of the corruption scandals among people close to him. There have been setbacks. There's the sort of the absolutely astonishing dressing down in the Oval Office, which he's managed to bounce back from. But if you, I think it's hard to imagine how much pressure he is under as a man. And at the same time he has to maintain this leadership quality that he has while the president of the US Is saying you need to have an election. And I mean it's not some sort of particularly high grade insight or analysis. But, you know, I sort of have concern for him, but, you know, I have faith in him as well. But I. It must be an astonishing amount of pressure. And I think that there's been a period where he hasn't got the credit he deserved recently.
- [42:46]
Francis Dernley
So, yes, I mean, I think that for all of the critiques that are made of President Zelenskyy, if you imagine him not in the picture, what that would mean Ukraine on the world stage, it doesn't bear thinking about. In many respects, not all respects, but in many respects, given the clout that he has achieved by, as you were saying earlier on, the decision to stay in Kyiv this day, more or less, give or take a couple of days, four years ago. But David, where would you like to leave everyone today?
- [43:12]
David Knowles
Well, someone very clever whose name I've forgotten, said the only thing worse than having allies is not having allies. But the whole business of managing your allies requires the highest grade diplomacy, particularly when you've got dozens of them, it's fantastic to have them, but keeping them all on board and managing them, particularly when one of them is so vastly more powerful than any of the others and is now so mercurial and conducts foreign policy in a way that frankly, no country has ever really conducted it before. So what we see from Zelenskyy is he's certainly a great performer and he's certainly got raw physical courage, which is extraordinary. The question really is, does he have the high grade diplomatic skills that he's going to, to hold together the coalition behind Ukraine?
- [43:59]
James Crisp
I guess at some point as well, he's going to also have to make a big sacrifice potentially. You know, can he carry that through? He's been defiant. Defiant, defiant. Will he be? Actually, at some point there's going to have to be something.
- [44:11]
Francis Dernley
Has he pensioned himself into a corner? That's the problem. That's the problem. I remember a couple of days after the awful Oval Office encounter with President Trump, I had the. The privilege of sitting with President Zelensky and putting it to him whether he would ever be willing to sign a deal in any form that would concede territory, whether legally or in effect to Russia that it didn't currently control. And he said, and I've said this on the podcast many times, but he said unequivocally, there is no chance that I would do that. That would not be a peace deal. That would be a capitulation. Now, if that really is the Ukrainian position, that puts him out of sync. With probably, as you're saying, many European capitals who would be willing to do that to get this across the line and well, certainly with Russia, I would posit. So as you say, I think that is a key, key question. But the Ukrainians are defiant. The Ukrainians are certainly defiant and do not believe that their position is weakening. Many of them believe it's strengthening, but that will be a subject no doubt that we'll continue to discuss further in this historic week. Ukraine the Latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph created by David Knowles. Every episode featuring us in the studio. Maps and battlefield footage is now available to watch on our YouTube channel. Subscribe@www.YouTube.com crane the latest there's a link in the description. You can also sign up to the Ukraine the Latest newsletter each week we answer your questions, provide recommended reading and give exclusive analysis and behind the scenes insights plus diagrams of the front lines and weaponry to complement our reporting. It's free for everyone including non subscribers. You can find the link to sign up in the episode description. If you appreciate our work, please consider following Ukraine the Latest on your preferred podcast app and leave us a review as it helps others find the show. Please also share it with those who may not be aware aware we exist. You can also get in touch directly to ask questions or give comments by emailing ukrainepodelegraph.co.uk we continue to read every message. You can also contact us directly on X. You'll find our handles in the description. As ever, we're especially interested to hear where you're listening from around the world. And finally, to support our work and stay on top of all of our Ukraine news, news, analysis and dispatches from the ground. Please subscribe to the Telegraph. You can get one month for free, then two months for just one pound at www.telegraph.co.uk Ukraine the latest Ukraine the Latest was Today produced by Rachel Porter. Executive producers are Francis Dernley, Louisa Wells and David Knowles.
- [46:57]
David Knowles
My name is David Knowles.
- [46:59]
James Crisp
Thank you all for listening.
- [47:00]
Francis Dernley
Listening Goodbye.
- [47:09]
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David Knowles
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James Crisp
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James Crisp
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