← Ukraine: The Latest
Ukraine: The Latest
Putin ‘moving nuclear missiles’ to EU border & frog poison hit on Navalny reveals secret chemical weapons
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- [00:04]
Venetia Rainey
The telegraph.
- [00:09]
Francis Dernley
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Naomi Ekparigan
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Francis Dernley
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- [02:32]
Naomi Ekparigan
I'm Francis Dernley and this is Ukraine. The latest Today, amid fresh Russian bombardments and reports of Ukrainian counter operations, we step back to assess the broader strategic picture on the battlefield. Then we report from the Munich Security Conference where American voices, including US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, set down competing visions for U.S. involvement in Europe. We cover President Zelenskyy's candid remarks and examine the extraordinary claims from British intelligence that Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was killed with a toxin derived from an Ecuadorian frog on the orders of Putin. Bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with victory.
- [03:20]
Francis Dernley
The Russia does not want peace.
- [03:31]
Naomi Ekparigan
If I'm president, I will have that.
- [03:32]
Venetia Rainey
War settled in one day, 24 hours. We are with you, not just today.
- [03:37]
Naomi Ekparigan
Or tomorrow, but for 100 years. Nobody's going to break us.
- [03:46]
Venetia Rainey
We are strong.
- [03:47]
Naomi Ekparigan
We are Ukrainians. It's Monday 16th February, three years and 359 days since the full scale invasion began and today I'm joined in our studio by host of our sister podcast Battle Lines, Venetia Rainey. And later you'll hear Adlie Pogman Ponte talk to the Telegraph's national security editor Rosina Sabour, who is at the Munich security conference. But first to the military updates. In last week's episode, Dom cited Michael Kaufman, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who we've interviewed on the podcast before. He's written a comprehensive overview of the strategic, strategic picture of where we are in the war, published today in Foreign affairs, which I thought I would use to frame and contextualize the military updates from this morning and the weekend. The piece is called Ukraine's War of the Fight for Advantage in the Conflict's Fifth Year and opens with the following Ukraine performed well in 2025. It even ended the year arguably better than it did in 2024, when Russian forces were advancing at an accelerated rate. The situation today is far from dire. Although Kyiv entered 2026 in a difficult position, the military continues to suffer from manpower shortages and cities are rationing electricity. Now just on that on Saturday, at least two were injured in a Russian drone attack on the northern outskirts of Kyiv. The regional governor said that a man and a woman were hospitalized. Mayor Vitaly Klitschko told the FT over the weekend that the relentless Russian airstrikes on critical infrastructure over the past two months had brought Kyiv to the br of catastrophe. Right now, the question of the future of our country, whether we will survive as an independent country or not, is still open, he said. On Sunday, another Russian strike on Sumy oblast damaged local infrastructure and injured four people. The governor there said that medical infrastructure was hit. The attack marked the second time in over a week that medical facilities in the region were allegedly targeted, raising alarm over the safety of essential services. Inside Russia, Ukrainian drones attacked targets in Bryansk this morning, allegedly leaving parts without electricity. Yesterday, Russian officials also reported a large scale drone attack targeting multiple regions, including near Moscow. It follows more information coming out about the apparent destruction of a $100 million long radar system in occupied Crimea. On Friday, Ukraine's General Staff said each of the targeted facilities ensures the energy, aviation or communication stability of enemy groupings in the occupied territories. Systematic strikes on infrastructure disrupt command and logistics, reducing the Russian army's ability to sustain combat operations. The Alpha unit of Ukraine's security service also claimed to have now destroyed half of Russia's stockpile of the coveted Pantsir air defense system. Quite a development that as well. But to continue with Kofman's analysis, Russia's offensive pace slowed briefly over the winter, but as of late January it was picking up. Kyiv spent much of the past year realigning its relations with Washington and establishing mechanisms to sustain Western support. Ukraine's drone advantage has diminished. Still, its position is not desperate. Russia cannot achieve its political goals by military means alone. It takes Moscow considerable time to capture even small parts of territory, and doing so comes at a steep cost. According to one measure, Russian forces advanced 1,930 square miles in 2025, including their counterattacks in Kurs, compared with 1,620 square miles in 2024. These advances represent a very small percentage of Ukraine's territory, however, and given the incremental nature of the gains, Russian forces would still have a long struggle ahead of them just to capture the rest of Donetsk. This is undoubtedly why Putin wants Ukraine to cede the region in negotiations to avoid the lengthy fight now just on Donetsk, there have been reports of small tactical gains by the Ukrainians around small settlements near Oleksandrivka and both following Russia losing Starlink. As Dom discussed last week, the ICEW confirms Russia is reportedly testing a stratospheric communications system known as Barrage 1, an alternative to Starlink, which some Russian mill bloggers say is an inadequate replacement. But back to Kofman, the current battlefield dynamic is one of porous lines. Ukrainian forces forward positions are pickets with large gaps in between, and Russian forces try to infiltrate past them. Amid the relative deadlock, 2025 saw a brutal tug of war for superiority in the kill zone. The year began with the zone squarely positioned over Russian forces, which gave Ukraine a considerable advantage. Over time, Russia's elite drone formations such as Rubicon, expanded drone units and sheer numbers enabled it to move the zone more evenly across the battlefield, reducing Ukraine's advantage. This year, we'll see a replay of that contest, because superiority in drone capabilities is now dictating initiative. Russia retains battlefield advantages, but they have not proved decisive. Kofman then goes into the subject of manpower shortages for both sides. He says the Russian military is preserving equipment, but suffering much larger losses of manpower. Almost all of Russia's recruitment in 2025 he to 35,000 enlistees per month was to replace combat losses. By December, unrecoverable casualties. Those killed and seriously injured began to exceed monthly recruitment, which also dipped. The upshot is that the Russian military cannot expand at the current pace of offensive operations. Although Russia still enjoys a considerable manpower advantage over Ukraine, the negative trends are only likely to get worse. Many Russians who are willing to take money to fight in the war have already done so, and Moscow must now try to find other means of gathering recruits. The quality of the personnel recruited is also declining, which has contributed to climbing rates of desertion in 2025. All of this does not mean that Moscow is running out of men. Yet. If current casualty rates hold, Moscow might have to reduce offensive intensity. Now on Ukraine, Kofman continues by talking about how manoeuvre formations are tactically innov and well led. But Kyiv has struggled with force management. New units are still being formed without sufficient officers, he says, manpower or equipment, and their creation comes at the expense of reinforcing existing units. With little in the way of operational reserve, elite units are sent to firefight across the front to counter Russian advances. Now, that's something that we've reported on quite considerably in the last few months. Newly established corps are supposed to make the fight more cohesive by coordinating the action of subordinate brigades. But commanders are still constrained by micromanagement. A policy of not one step back prevents brigades from running a mobile defence and leads to the formation of salients. With Ukrainian forces slowly being enveloped by enemy advances. Worse, some commanders misreport their positions, as defence proves unsustainable in the face of assaults. Ukraine will have to address these manpower and force management issues to reduce its losses and stay ahead of the Russian military in the coming year. And then he ends by talking about Ukraine's strikes on energy infrastructure. Sapping Russia's ability to sustain the war financially over the medium term is pivotal, he says. Last year, Putin made two bets. The first was that sustained pressure and attrition would cause a collapse of Ukrainian lines. The second was that Russian diplomacy would turn the US against Ukraine. Washington did stop providing military support as aid, but it set up an arrangement in which Europeans now pay for continued US support for Ukraine's war effort. Essentially both of Putin's bets proved wrong. How the fighting proceeds from here will inform negotiations and the key question will be which is more sustainable, Russia's offensive or Ukraine's defence. Last year's battles suggest that going into the fifth year of the war, Moscow's military prospects have not significantly improved. While economic strain mounts, Ukraine suffers from exhaustion but not desperation. Although Ukraine faces challenges, time is less and less on Russia's side, however much Moscow portrays the situation. Otherwise, Moscow cannot wish away the fundamental mismatch between the military means it has available and the political aims it seeks to achieve. Now, not everybody is going to agree with all of Koffman's analysis there, but I think it provides a very interesting talking point and one very interested to hear listeners perspectives on and of course we will link to that in the show notes. But now Venetia, let's go into the political realm. A pretty substantial weekend, I think it's fair to say, with the Munich Security Conference always a staple in the calendar. Where do you want to start in terms of developments there?
- [13:08]
Venetia Rainey
Well, let's start with Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, who you mentioned everyone had been waiting for his speech. And we covered this on battle lines last week because this time a year ago JD Vance gave a speech shortly off the back of Pete Hegseth giving a speech in which both of their message was essentially Europe, you're going to have to go it alone. And I think everyone was left feeling very shocked. So there's been a lot of anticipation around Marco Rubio's speech which came on Saturday. Now I'll give you the top line summary. It was an olive branch. There were loads and loads of mentions of Europe and America were in this together. I think he called America parent of Europe. He talks about the sort of early settlers coming across the Atlantic. But he also identified what he felt were the two main problems that have happened since the end of the Cold War when Europe and America were last working really closely together. And he talks about mass migration and he talks about the peace dividend. Well I think the peace dividend we're all on the same page about. But mass migration is obviously a hot button culture war topic and that's a bit closer to what we heard from J.D. vance last year. So I think some of those core themes were still pretty similar and I think the fact that he and we'll come on to this a bit more later. But he flew on from the Munich Security Conference to go visit Hungary and Slovakia, two more right wing countries within Europe that Hungary and particularly obviously, are a bit more Russia friendly. We should talk about that later because I know you'll have views. There's some lines coming out of what he's been talking about with Orban. So he spoke a lot about the connections in Europe and America, and he asked a fundamental question. He said all this defense chat that we have here at Munich is all very well, but what are we defending? And I think that's something a really good question, and it probably won't elicit quite the answer that he expects. I think his vision, what he thinks the Trump administration is defending, is pretty clear, but that's not all the same for us here in Europe. And I think Starmer's speech, which was the same day, alighted on quite a different answer, and I'd be interested to hear what you think about that. He also slandered the UN says has no answers, can't solve wars. That's a familiar refrain that we've heard from the Trump administration. But it was a real effort to persuade Europeans to be on side with America. What did you make of his speech?
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Naomi Ekparigan
I thought it was, as you say, a continuation of Vance in some key ways, but also an attempt to say, look, don't panic too much. Although I don't think necessarily the feedback will be quite as positive from Europe as he will be hoping, given some of the remarks that he made about the post 1945 world order, which really he painted in quite negative terms for the perspective of the United States. And I think many people would say that this period of Pax Americana, if we're to see it in those terms, was not just beneficial for Europe, not just a product of American alpha, but actually was essential for America's own economic and military strength in the 20th century. And beyond that this was an act fundamentally of self interest as well as being about something bigger, and that the higher ideals of which America is meant to aspire as leader of the free world. So that jumped out of me, and I think there have been some quite strong critiques in Europe about that aspect of the speech. It is quite a remarkable turnaround for 1945 and the ramifications of NATO and the Cold War to be portrayed as being something that is, at least, if not negative, nuanced, and that is breaking the convention that we've known now for decades.
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Venetia Rainey
And I think what's also interesting is that there were a bunch of Democrats there as well, and they were trying to sort of rally this don't turn your back on America kind of spirit, because we have seen polling across Europe and people are worried about the direction that America is going in. They don't feel like it aligns with the direction that we're here in Europe. And I think what's really notable from Rubio's speech is that he didn't mention Russia. And again, at the Munich security conference here in Europe, that is still the number one threat. And we're here on Ukraine, the latest. That's the number one threat that Europeans are reckoning with. And I'll come on to Starmer's speech in a minute because he nailed that, I think. But the fact that Rubio wasn't even paying lip service to that, I think again points to just the gulf in where these two blocs are at.
- [16:53]
Naomi Ekparigan
And it also echoes the national security strategy that came out only was it about a month ago. Now, this is a continuation. This is not him deviating off script, not an accidental misstep or.
- [17:03]
Venetia Rainey
No, this is concrete.
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Naomi Ekparigan
This is concrete. Yeah, absolutely.
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Venetia Rainey
Yeah. Worth just mentioning. So I mentioned that some Democrats were there. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, the New York congresswoman, she was pitching an alternative left wing US Foreign policy and she accused Trump of tearing apart the transatlantic alliance and of seeking to introduce an age of authoritarianism, I think, for most people. And California Governor Gavin Newsom was also there and he basically tried to say Donald Trump is temporary, he'll be gone in three years. I don't think anyone here believes that. I think, although Donald Trump probably will be gone in three years, whoever succeeds him. And I've spoken to commentators who say even if it's a Democrat, we'll continue that more isolationist trend because that's where the American, American public seem to be at with that sort of thing. Or it could be J.D. vance, and then you're still in the same place.
- [17:46]
Naomi Ekparigan
I completely agree in the sense that we obviously, we don't know what's going to happen. But the point is, is the bipartisan assumptions about where the United States would fall on defense matters, about NATO and everything else that is gone now. Like, even if the Democrats do return, it is gone and Europe can never take this risk again. And so regardless of these, these overtures being made by Mr. Newsom and other Democrats, it does really feel that. I'm sorry, that the page of history has turned and we're in a different era now.
- [18:12]
Venetia Rainey
Now. Yeah. And just on that, there's some reporting from Politico that I wanted to pull out. We've had a lot of talk about whether America is going to start pulling out troops from Europe. And no one can quite pin anything down. But Politico reported that senior figures said the idea is being discussed politically, but are unsure whether it will ever materialize in practice. There's a review which is in place and it's been anticipated for months. So everyone's trying to sort of figure out what a smaller US Footprint might look like and whether they'll actually sort of pull the cord on that. So, as I mentioned, Rubio went on to Slovakia and Hungary and just to quickly share some lines, and I'd like to get your views on this, of his talks with Victor Orban, he said, this is Marco Rubio speaking, that Trump is deeply committed to your success and that the personal connection between Trump and Orban is behind the strong relationship between the US And Hungary. We're entering a golden era of relationships between our country, and not simply because the alignment of our people, but because of the relationship that you have with the president of the United States. I think that's a really interesting alignment to make in the current climate, because Hungary is pro Russia. If I want to be super broad brush, yeah, absolutely.
- [19:08]
Naomi Ekparigan
And it's a continuation of what we've seen now over, well, not only Trump's first term, but moving forward into this brave new world of ours. I think it's not shocking, but it will obviously pose even more alarm bells for Europe at the present moment, given everything else going on in the speech that was given at Munich. As you say, we don't need to reiterate to our audience how much Hungary has been implicated in delaying sanctions packages on Russia has been a real thorn in the side of trying to do more to galvanize Europe. And I think also as well as I've talked about in the podcast previously, it is quite striking to see how Hungary is trying to criticize any government in Europe that intervenes in their election by criticizing Orban. But of course, they've got no such rejection of any nice words said by President Trump or anybody in the administration. So there is a clear logical inconsistency here put forward by the Hungarians. But I'm glad you raised this, Venetia, because we will be doing some real deep dives into Hungary based on my recent trip there in future episodes, lots of interviews with very key figures in Orban's government and quite a few clashes, too, as one can imagine. I had a particularly feisty exchange with the deputy defence minister. So one to look forward to in the months ahead as we prepare for the Hungarian election on April 12, I think.
- [20:26]
Venetia Rainey
Yes, exactly. Okay, so other key speech that I want to pull out from the Munich Security Conference is Keir Starmers. Maybe this is a bit UK focused of me, but I think he really did for once nail the brief. He started by saying that war has been a remote concept for most people until now, but that the warning signs are all there and that Russia is threatening our security, but also tearing at the fabrics of our social code cohesion. He talks about misinformation, electoral interference and all of that kind of stuff. He also made clear, and I think this is something that we all hear in sort of Europe and the UK and the broader public need to understand, that probably our listeners already understand, but more broadly, that a peace deal in Ukraine will only heighten the risk to Europe, that what comes after that is you get the clock ticking for Russia rearming and being able to do something else again. We don't know what. So Starmer said, in the face of the Russia threat, the road ahead is straight and clear. We need to build our hard power. That's the currency of the age, and we must be ready to fight to protect our way of life. Quite punchy speech. And he didn't actually announce any further funding, which is what everyone's been waiting for. We've got this defence investment plan which has been knocking around for months. Apparently no money in the cupboards to fund any of the big things that they want to do. But there is now reporting that he's going to bring forward defence spending raise to sometime this year, so hopefully some concrete money to back that up. His answer primarily to this problem of the Russia threat, was greater UK European cooperation. And that's what's really caught headlines here. He said, we are not the Britain of the Brexit years anymore. And that got a massive round of applause. APPLAUSE he called Europe a sleeping giant, which I think is quite an interesting reference to obviously what America was called during the Second World War when Japan bombed Pearl harbor and dragged it into the war. And he said that the US is obviously essential and recognized that we can't replace all American capabilities here in Europe, but we can start to diversify and that Europe needs to stand up on its own two feet. So some of this will be familiar, but I thought that was quite punchy talk. And he's said he's been having talks with Ursula von der Leyen and that they're trying to sort of build more UK European mini NATO cooperation. They want to build their defense industrial capabilities together. And this is a SOP for, for us here in the uk. As well, because he's trying to say this will be good for us. That will put UK companies, UK defence industries into this big war machine, essentially, which is gearing up in Europe. Right. The other big thing that he announced was that the UK is going to deploy a carrier strike group to the Arctic as part of efforts to bolster security against Russian threats. So the Arctic, obviously, this sort of other theater of war which is looming above all of our heads somewhere.
- [22:43]
Naomi Ekparigan
There are some rumors around that, which I think we reported last week. So, yeah, we've seen the official confirmation now. I think it's very much connected with Greenland, isn't it?
- [22:50]
Venetia Rainey
Yes, yes, and on Greenland. So a couple of other speeches which are worth drawing out some lines from Mette Friedrichson, the Danish prime minister. She said that Trump still wants Greenland and this is something that we've heard on battle lines. We interviewed Greenland's energy and minerals minister and she said, you know, yeah, negotiations are ongoing, but we don't think Trump's position has changed. Like, this story has fallen out of the headlines, but they still want Greenland. I'm going to try and find a way to get it. And that is such a fundamental clash between Europe and America. And the fact that that tension is still remains, I think that's something that you can't undo. There's like a breaking of trust there. I think that we just realize that we are on different planes in terms of our recognition of sort of fundamental values.
- [23:30]
Naomi Ekparigan
Were there any other speeches that caught your eye, Venetia?
- [23:32]
Venetia Rainey
Yes. So, super quickly, we should talk about Zelensky's speech.
- [23:35]
Naomi Ekparigan
Of course.
- [23:35]
Venetia Rainey
Yeah, yeah. He said that territorial concessions by Ukraine won't bring peace again. I don't think our listeners will be surprised. But as Alanski has to keep telling the world this until they start listening, he said it would be an illusion to believe that this war can now be reliably ended by dividing Ukraine, just as it was an illusion to believe that sacrificing Czechoslovakia would save Europe from a greater war. So another World War II reference there. He also compared Putin to the previous Putin, who began dividing Europe. Reference to Hitler, obviously. And he talked about how Ukrainians haven't chosen to be heroes and everyday life under Russian attacks has been brutal. He held bilateral talks with Rubio later. There was supposed to be some talks with Ukraine and America on Friday that Rubio apparently skipped, but there have been some sort of talks on the sideline. And just one more. So Ersja von der Leyen, she was also speaking on Saturday. She described Starmer as an unflinching ally and friend. Friend. I don't know what that wins in, but there we go, that's good. And said the EU and the UK are facing the threat of outside forces trying to weaken our union from within. She referred to Europe undergoing shock therapy from America. So that's a reference to that JD Vance speech again from last year and said now is the time to raise the costs of Russia's war higher than ever. So lots of fighting talk from everyone. Everyone seemed to be roughly on the same page.
- [24:42]
Naomi Ekparigan
The Europeans speaking of fighting talk, there was also lots of commentary on developing an independent nuclear deterrent for Europe. Now of course we all know the only one is France at the moment that is technically complet independent of the United States. Britain is sometimes categorized as being there, but there are nuances because of the long term trajectory of Trident and other things. But in Europe, on the continent it's only France. But others are beginning to chime in on this.
- [25:07]
Venetia Rainey
Yes, Poland's president has said that Poland should begin developing its own nuclear weapons to guard against Russia. He said he was a great supporter of Poland joining the nuclear project and he said it could underpin the country's security strategy. So that's really interesting. Yeah, we're just seeing nuclear proliferation. It's not just associated with the baddies now, but the goodies. Our side.
- [25:25]
Naomi Ekparigan
Yet further evidence of how the prolonging of this war has expanded nuclear proliferation and made having these weapons, which supposedly were on the way out, even more of an essential thing for a country to acquire. And that makes the whole world a lot more dangerous. Not that I'm saying that Poland having them would necessarily make these dangerous. It might, well, may, might well make things a lot safer. But it wasn't meant to be this way, was it?
- [25:49]
Venetia Rainey
No, no. Yeah. Just when you think you've reached the end of history, it keeps on going indee. Okay, one more thing to flag before we crack on. So this week, obviously you've got big peace talks coming up, another round, a third round, US brokered peace negotiations. They're happening tomorrow, Tuesday and Wednesday in Geneva. Expectations not super high. As your listeners will know, the talks in Abu Dhabi didn't produce much. Russia has brought back pseudo historian Madinsky to head the peace talks on their side. That's really seen as like a reverse of this shift towards constructive diplomacy. What did you make of that?
- [26:19]
Naomi Ekparigan
Well, we've talked about him before, so I'm not going to go over all of the groundwork about him, but basically he's seen as not a serious figure. He's somebody you send as almost a middle finger to the Ukrainians, really, given his claims about the country and its lack of historic sovereignty. And so people are saying the fact that the Kremlin is sending this individual just shows that these talks in many ways are a sham. And I should say that Joe Barnes is there for the Telegraph. I think he's landing there tonight. So we hope to have him on the podcast a couple of times at least this week. Reflecting on what it's like to be in the hotel where it's all happening.
- [26:50]
Venetia Rainey
Russia's also revived its election day truce offer, proposing a UN Rule for Ukraine, said it's ready to halt strikes on Ukraine for a single day of voting, and floated UN Back to temporary external governance. This is coming after Zelenskyy said elections could be held following two months of a ceasefire, but remains to see where that actually goes. I think amid all of this, we should bear in mind that Zelenskyy is still under enormous US Pressure. Trump has said that Zelensky has to get moving on a peace deal. Russia wants to make a deal, and Zelenskyy is going to have to get moving, otherwise he's going to miss a great opportunity. That's a direct quote. That was Trump speaking last Friday. And just to end Francis with a big story that caught the headlines and something that you're going to hear discussed more between Adli Pajm Ponte and Rosina Saber, our international security corresp. And this is the news that Russia likely killed opposition leader Navalny with frog poison while he was in prison in Siberia. So on Saturday, Britain, France, Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands came together and held a sort of mini press conference with Navalny's widow, Yulia. And they said that analyses of samples from Navalny's body had conclusively confirmed the presence of epimedipidine. I'm definitely going to get called out for the pronunciation of that, aren't I?
- [27:54]
Naomi Ekparigan
I thought it sounded pretty good to me.
- [27:56]
Venetia Rainey
A toxin found in poison dart frogs from South America and not naturally found in Russia.
- [28:00]
Naomi Ekparigan
Interesting. Well, let's hear more about that and what it's like actually being on the ground in Munich with Adelie and Rosina now.
- [28:08]
Rosina Sabour
Hi, Rosina, good to talk to you. You have been at Munich for the last couple of days and you're still here. How is it going?
- [28:14]
Francis Dernley
Hi, Adelie. Yes, I've been braving the cold and the rain here in Munich to flip between conference venues and try to get through the huge wall of security that has descended on the city for the last week days. But it's been really interesting and it's great to meet so many people in the defense and the security world.
- [28:37]
Rosina Sabour
What came out of the conference on Ukraine?
- [28:41]
Francis Dernley
Yeah. So what I'm hearing from a number of people is that Volodymyr Zelensky looks to be in a much stronger position than he has seemed for quite some time. And the people I speak to say they are very aware of the domestic situation in Ukraine and that actually Zelenskyy feels very empowered at the moment because he has a lot of domestic support and his country will not accept a bad peace deal. So he feels very strengthened by that. And everyone I spoke to said he seems more upbeat, he seems stronger than he has in a long time. And they think that Vladimir Putin has miscalculated on this. And in terms of, you know, the figures that we're hearing out of off Russia's war, the troop replacement rate is really significant. And in terms of the headline figures of what this war is costing Vladimir Putin, it is a really asymmetrical resistance that the Ukrainians are able to put up. And Putin's fiscal deficit is expected to be five times higher for the last year than the Russians themselves had estimated. So the numbers are looking really, really bad for Vladimir Putin. And at the same time, what I'm hearing is that Volodymyr Zelensky, he may look a little tired, but he's upbeat and he's feeling to be in a stronger position than he has in quite some time.
- [30:11]
Rosina Sabour
Yes, And I think he's also clarified a number of points that have been making the headlines lately, last week about potential elections being held. Also his stance on territorial concessions, which seem to have been something that was a bit more in flux over the last few months. Can you clarify for us what he said and what his stance has been in front of everyone else?
- [30:32]
Francis Dernley
Yes. So we know that the elections has been a bit of a sticking point in the negotiations in terms of Washington's view of this. And what Volodymyr Zelenskyy said is, look, I'm more than happy to have elections, but they can't take place during war. And he clarified that that doesn't mean we have to wait till the end of the war for these elections to take place, but we do need a ceasefire in order for that to happen. So a bit of a shift in tone there where there is some move by the Ukrainians to try and facilitate that request. But, you know, again and again, What I hear from people here is that Vladimir Putin is not serious about negotiations. He is merely killing time stringing people along in engaging in these discussions. So that is something that many in Europe here are factoring in when we talk about these peace deal negotiations. I think really there is a real sense that this is a critical period for Ukraine. And actually, given the economic peril that Russia potentially faces this year, making sure Ukraine has what it needs in terms of funding, in terms of weaponry is really critical at this particular point in time. So there is as much a look to the future as there has been to the past, I'd say, in many of the speeches that we've heard and the discussions that have been taking place on the sidelines. And at the same time, we've had this pressure put on Russia from Britain, from several other European countries, with the announcement yesterday with Alexei Navalny's widow that he was killed with a toxin developed from an Ecuadorian force frog. So this amazing bit of intelligence analysis that has been unveiled on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, of course, Alexei Navalny, the Russian dissident, his death occurred almost two years ago to the day of this announcement. Just as his now widow was about to take the stage at Munich, she learned the news of his death. So this very dramatic event yesterday where, where we had Yvette Cooper, the Foreign Secretary, standing alongside Yulia Navalny, Alexei's widow, along with several other European governments to make this big announcement.
- [33:05]
Rosina Sabour
Yeah, that was one of the big announcements of the conference and one of the big headlines of the week on Navalny. So I feel like you spent the last few days, Rosina, hear as much about amphibians as you have about world security. What did you find out about France? Frogs.
- [33:19]
Francis Dernley
I did spend a lot of yesterday talking about frogs. It was a word that I uttered more than I ever expected to at the Munich Security conference, actually. But, yeah, some incredible information that we've got about this Ecuadorian dart frog, which carries this very lethal toxin, which is a poison that's 200 times stronger than morphine. Interestingly, it doesn't occur in these frogs, which are bred in captivity. It is then their natural environment and the diet that they eat that produces this toxin. So we know that there is no innocent naturally occurring way that this toxin could have found its way into Alexei Navalny's body. What it does tell us is that the intelligence that we're getting is that this was synthetically produced, this toxin. So what it does tell us is a huge amount about the Russians chemical weapon production capability. And despite having claimed quite some years ago that they destroyed all of their chemical and biological weapons stock and renounced their use, clearly they have these very advanced capabilities to produce these sorts of toxins. And there is some debate as to whether this particular method was used to kill Navalny as a cause kind of calling card in the way that we saw Novichok used in the Salisbury poisonings in 2018 when you know Novichok very dangerous toxin to be traveling with, to be administering because it could very easily kill the would be assassins. And that was done very deliberately as a sort of calling card by Vladimir Putin to say wherever you are, we can come and reach you. And so that very distinctive poison was used very deliberately. Now in the case of this toxin, which is called epibatidine, it's a much less well understood toxin and it took a very long time for the scientists involved in this. We believe there are scientists from Portendown involved and it took an incredible amount of time for them to be sure of their findings. Because this isn't a well known toxin, it's not one that's commonly used. This may in fact be the first time it's been used in this scenario as far as we know. And actually the bog standard chemical testing probably wouldn't have identified this toxins presence in Navalny. So there's a question mark over whether this was a very audacious and deliberate murder that was done with a toxin that would be very easily traced back to the Kremlin or whether it it was designed to fly under the radar in the hopes that it wouldn't be detected in any testing. So there is some dispute among analysts there as to what the intention of using frog poison was.
- [36:23]
Rosina Sabour
Okay, wow. Well indeed a lot of time thinking and talking about frogs there. But on the subject of opposition to Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin, I think you've also had a very interesting interview with the Belarusian opposition leader yesterday, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. What was that like and what did you tell you?
- [36:43]
Francis Dernley
Yeah, she's a formidable woman. This is the elected leader of Belarus, now living in exile in Lithuania since 2020, recently reunited with her husband who was released among with around 300 Belarusian political prisoners in the last few months, partly thanks to Donald Trump's administration actually and the work of the special ed envoy to Belarus. But what she says is, look, we can't forget about Belarus, partly because actually Lukashenko's regime is helping Putin escalate his war in Ukraine and is using Belarusian territory to deploy Russian nuclear weapons to help in the production of Vladimir Putin's industrial war government complex. And her warning was, if Ukraine fails, we all fail. We can forget about regime change in Belarus. So a stark message from her. She was also speaking at the Munich Security Conference, and she said it's the first time in the conference's history that Belarus has been named and had this prominent position on a panel at this very prestigious, very important Defence and Security Council conference. And that's largely down to her activism and keeping the spotlight on Belarus in the last few years.
- [38:08]
Rosina Sabour
She's also commented on Melania Trump's more recent ventures into foreign policy and the role that she may be playing, maybe whispering in her husband's ear, what was her take on this, on the first Lady's new role?
- [38:23]
Francis Dernley
Yes, I asked her about her relationship with the Trump administration because obviously we have seen these prisoner releases in the last few months, and that has been with US pressure applied. And I was just curious to get her thoughts on what role she thought the first Lady, Melania Trump, had played in that and continues to play in applying the pressure, in putting a spotlight on Eastern Europe, obviously the place of her birth. So she actually really sprung into life when I asked her about this. And she said, behind every strong man, there is a strong woman who can wisely influence influence. And she talked about Melania Trump's ability to persuade or influence her husband to pay more attention to political prisoners. And of course, we've seen the first Lady's involvement in the transfer back to Ukraine of children who were captured during the war by the Russians. And she had a lot to say on that as well. But at the same time, she said, while, while it's great that we're getting these prisoners back, we shouldn't use this negotiation to legitimize Lukashenko's regime. So a slight sting in the tail there of what she's saying about the prisoner releases.
- [39:40]
Rosina Sabour
Thanks so much, Rosina, last very small question from you because I know you've got to head off for it to meet more fascinating sources. Was there any mention of the Pacific at all in the last couple of days? In the people that you've spoken to, in the conferences you've been to, there.
- [39:56]
Francis Dernley
Have been a lot of events. So I don't want to unilaterally say there was no mention of the Pacific, but certainly in all the conversations that I was involved in and the events that I saw, it was all very much focused on the European continent and the Russian aggression in Ukraine particularly. Yeah.
- [40:16]
Rosina Sabour
Okay. Well, thanks. So much. Rosina. Good luck meeting all of your sources today for the last day of the Munich Security conference and we'll talk to you soon back in London.
- [40:24]
Francis Dernley
Thanks very much. Great to talk to you. Adelaide.
- [40:42]
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Francis Dernley
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Naomi Ekparigan
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Francis Dernley
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Naomi Ekparigan
Well, let's go to our final thoughts now then, we always try and keep an eye on those businesses that claimed they'd left Russia forever after the full scale invasion, or for at least as long as the war was ongoing, and then returned on the DL on the down low. Earlier this month, the KSE Institute and the Civil Society Coalition B4 Ukraine 2 that we've had representatives on the podcast before authored a report claiming that massive Mazda vehicles have re entered the Russian market despite the Japanese automaker's formal suspension of operations. So according to the report, Mazda's Russian subsidiary has publicly introduced two crossover models, the CX5 and the CX50, sourced from a plant in China and sold with official warranties. Russian Pro state outlet RBC also reported that more than 2,000 Mazda vehicles have been registered in Russia since the start of this year, marking the first time the brand has entered the country's top 10 selling car makers. Mazda, as far as we can tell, have not commented on these allegations, but whenever these kind of stories arise, we always like to include them. And if anyone has any further insights, do get in touch in the usual ways. But Venetia, where would you like to leave listeners today?
- [43:09]
Venetia Rainey
Well, let's go all the way to the other side of the world, to North Korea. We've seen Kim Jong Un out and about unveiling a new neighborhood for the families of North Korean soldiers who've been killed while fighting for Russia and Ukraine. A real formal acknowledgment of how significant this has been for the tiny Hermit kingdom. It's in Pyongyang, and it's North Korean dictator's latest effort to honor the war dead and curtail potential discontent over North Koreans being sent to fight abroad. According to analysts, North Korea's losses in Kursk mainly estimated to total around 6,000 troops killed or injured.
- [43:38]
Naomi Ekparigan
There have been even higher estimations. I've seen 10,000.
- [43:40]
Venetia Rainey
10,000, okay.
- [43:42]
Naomi Ekparigan
The exact figures, for obvious reasons, not.
- [43:45]
Venetia Rainey
A bastion of free information. So this project has around 50 apartment blocks housing 2,500 families. So there's some maths in there to be done by someone cleverer than me. And we saw pictures of Kim Jong Un touring around with his daughter Kim Joo Ae. And other than the Ukraine aspect to this, which is obviously very interesting, we've also been reporting on battle lines about how we think that he is finally elected to choose his daughter as his successor. She's only 13 years old. She's not going to take over just yet, obviously, but it is significant. He's supposed to be having some health problems. His father also had some health problems. He's only 42. So it's pretty young to be apparently choosing a successor. This is all coming through South Korean intelligence services, so we don't have it confirmed. But as you say, very hard to get proper information out of North Korea. A lot of the time it would set off a bit of a battle with his sister. She's the sort of second most powerful person in North Korea, we think. So it'd be interesting to watch how that unfolds and we've covered that in today's battle lines.
- [44:35]
Naomi Ekparigan
Well, we'll have a link to that too in the show notes. Venetia, thanks very much for your time today. Thanks to Adli and thanks to Rosina as well. We'll be back same time, same place tomorrow. Until then, all the very best from us in London and in Deutschland, Ukraine. The latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph created by David Knowles to support our work and stay on top of all of our Ukraine news, analysis and dispatches from the ground. Please subscribe to the Telegraph. You can get one month free, then two months for just one pound at www.telegraph.co.uk UkraineTheLast. Deploying cutting edge technology, we also release Ukrainian and Russian versions of this pilot podcast. These translations retain our voices and delivery so that it can reach listeners in every region of Ukraine and those parts of Eastern Europe where Russian is still widely spoken. Links to those can be found in the podcast description to this episode. You can also now sign up to the New Ukraine, the latest weekly newsletter. Each week Dom Nichols and I answer your questions, provide recommended reading and give exclusive analysis and behind the scenes interview insights plus maps of the front lines and diagrams of weapons to complement our daily reporting. It's free for everyone including non subscribers. You can find the link to sign up in the descriptions for this episode. We regularly have a Ukraine Live blog on our website where you can follow updates as they come in throughout the day, including insights from regular contributors to this podcast. We also do the same for other breaking international stories. If you appreciate our work, please consider following Ukraine the latest on your preferred podcast podcast app and leave us a review as it really helps others find the show. Please also share it with those who may not be aware we exist. You can also get in touch directly to ask questions or give comments by emailing ukrainepodelegraph.co.uk we continue to read every message. You can also contact us directly on X. You'll find our handles in the description for this episode. As ever, we're especially interested to hear where you're listening from around the world. Ukraine the latest was today produced by Rachel Porter. Executive producers are Francis Dernley, Louisa Wells and David Knowles.
- [46:53]
David Knowles
My name is David Knowles.
- [46:54]
Naomi Ekparigan
Thank you all for listening. Goodbye.
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Francis Dernley
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David Knowles
Your new home is now ready. Dr. Horton, America's Builder has new homes that are ready today. With new construction communities throughout the Puget Sound and Central Washington areas and more coming, Dr. Horton has the right home for for you at Dr. Horton, we're still building with more construction, more communities and more homes available every day. Tap your screen now or visit Dr. Horton.com to find your new home now ready Dr. Horton, America's Builder An Equal Housing opportunity Builder.
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Francis Dernley
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