Ukraine: The Latest – March 2, 2026

Episode Title: Putin slams ‘murder’ after US-Israel kill Khamenei & what war in Iran means for ‘humiliated’ Russia
Host: David Knowles, The Telegraph
Panel: Francis Dernley, Gianni Vanetti, Valery Chalyi, William Taylor, Adeli Pojman Ponte (on-ground reporting)

Overview

This episode explores the global fallout after the US-Israeli strike that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei. The podcast unpacks the impact on Russia’s war in Ukraine, considering both military and diplomatic consequences. The episode covers battlefield developments in Ukraine, the geopolitics of alliances, Russia’s “shadow fleet”, Europe’s posture, and domestic voices from Kyiv, culminating with an in-depth panel discussion from the Black Sea Security Forum in Odessa.

Key Topics & Discussion Points

1. Iran Attack and Global Ramifications

(Starts ~02:38)

• US-Israel strike kills Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei. Russia voices condolences but offers no material support to Iran.
• Francis Dernley: "In just over a year, President Trump has removed three key Putin allies: Maduro, Khamenei, and Assad. This is profoundly unsettling for any dictator." (14:17)
• Russia/Ukraine now watch Trump's moves closely, with the potential to shift alliances.

Notable Quotes

• Francis Dernley: "Lest we forget, Putin tried to have Zelensky killed within the opening weeks of this war. Strong words from Moscow. But no condemnation of Trump, interestingly. And no action fundamentally taken; all it can really offer is sympathy." (16:56)
• David Knowles (on Russia’s relationships): "Russia and Iran are friends with benefits. It’s convenient for when it works for them." (19:34)

2. Ukraine Battlefield Update

(Starts ~03:00)

• 10 of 94 Russian drones got through, hitting four locations; 9 dead, 19 injured.
• Ukrainian use of the "Delta" combat management system showcased, giving real-time situational awareness and enabling accurate battlefield stats.
• 30,090 Russian casualties from Ukrainian drone and unmanned systems in the winter months alone.

Notable Quotes

• David Knowles: "These figures, I suggest, are pretty accurate." (06:02)
• Ukraine continues to innovate with drone warfare, moving towards AI-based alternatives and ground drones (UGVs). Centralized delivery of Starlink systems and ground robotics scaling up to reduce human losses.

3. Russia’s 'Shadow Fleet' and Sanctions Enforcement

(07:19)

• Belgian and French authorities boarded a Russian "shadow fleet" oil tanker, taking action against sanction evasion.
• President Zelensky calls for modernization of European law: "It's important that tankers carrying Russian oil are not just stopped, but seized with their oil repurposed for Europe's security... Russia operates like a mafia organization and the response must match that reality." (08:06)
• EU sanctions tightening, French President Macron labels it a "major blow to the shadow fleet." (08:53)

4. Ukraine's Strategic Leverage: Drones, Diplomacy, and Security

(13:44)

• Francis Dernley contrasts the world's alarm at drone strikes in the Middle East with everyday Ukrainian experience: "What is shocking for Dubai is just a normal 24 hours in Ukraine." (12:43)
• Ukraine's air defense knowledge increasingly in demand as "many countries are looking to Ukraine for advice and support on air defenses against drones and missiles." (18:56)
• The global attention may turn away from Ukraine to the Middle East, potentially affecting momentum for Ukraine in peace negotiations.

5. Oil Markets and Geopolitical Balances

(25:43)

• Middle East conflict pushes oil prices to a seven-month high, but global surplus may cap gains for Russia. If Iran drifts West, it could replace Russia as an energy supplier, undermining Russian leverage even further.
• Francis Dernley: “If Iran were ... to become closer to the West ... Iran could theoretically replace Russia as a chief energy provider for Europe ... potentially a devastating blow for Putin." (26:09)

6. Human Stories: Kyiv Dispatch

(30:07)

• Adeli Pojman Ponte reports from Kyiv, at a weekly protest for Azov Battalion captives.
• Interview with Konstantin, ex-captive of Russia:
  • "I spent the first year in Moscow's Lefortovo prison. Torture continued until I signed a confession that I was a spy." (31:32)
• Family of current captive Yaroslav shares their ordeal of not hearing from him for six months, the anxiety of waiting for prisoner exchange notifications.

Panel Discussion: Black Sea Security Forum, Odessa (36:12)

David Knowles moderates with:

• Valery Chalyi (Former Ukrainian Ambassador to US)
• William Taylor (Former US Ambassador to Ukraine)
• Gianni Vanetti (Former Italian Senator and Deputy FM)

Alliance Dynamics and Security Guarantees

(Starts ~37:25)

Ukraine’s Alliances & NATO

• Chalyi: "Alliance not only matters, but for Ukraine, [is] of critical importance. Had we been in NATO, Putin would not have attacked." (37:40)
• Recognition of value in informal/bilateral alliances with countries like the UK and Italy, but formal NATO-style guarantees are needed.

EU and Security Support

• Vanetti: Europe “woke up” after the full-scale invasion. The EU is making strides—e.g., new defense deals with India—but remains hampered by internal unanimity rules.
• Push to encourage more bilateral (country-to-country) defense pacts alongside EU-wide actions. (42:36)

Western Fatigue and US Commitment

• Taylor: "No fatigue—at least not the kind that matters. The people who experience fatigue live in Ukraine ... Europeans and Americans shouldn't stop." (46:52)
• Worries about US withdrawal from NATO are dismissed by both Taylor and Vanetti. "It's against the law … that's one thing we don't have to worry about." (52:28)

“Coalition of the Willing” and Presence of Foreign Troops in Ukraine

• Unambiguous support for sending western/EU troops to train in Ukraine; Russia does not get a veto.
  • Taylor: "Russia does not get a vote ... You don't ask the Russians if it's OK to deploy coalition forces backed by the US in Ukraine, either before or after a ceasefire ... It's there to deter the Russians." (54:10)

Defense Spending and Accountability

• NATO's new 5% GDP defense target (by 2035), but concerns that countries will try to ‘creatively’ label non-military infrastructure as defense spending.
  • Vanetti: “We cannot be too much creative on this side.” (57:46)

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Francis Dernley: “Putin has lost three of his closest pals in little more than a year. He’s also not helped any of them. This dynamic proves three things: Russia is not a reliable ally ... Its influence ... is dramatically falling ... the domino of deposed dictators must continue.” (18:25)
• David Knowles: “Russia and Iran are friends with benefits. ... They’ve taken from Iran what they wanted: the blueprints for Shaheds ... So I don’t see Russia too damaged by the loss of Iran.” (19:34)
• Adeli Pojman Ponte: "Every time there is a prisoner swap ... you get a text message if your loved one ... is part of the prisoner release. But for this family, they're still waiting for that text message." (33:37)
• William Taylor: "No fatigue. ... It's an indulgence and it's an indulgence that we can't abide. The people who experience fatigue live in Ukraine." (46:52)
• Valery Chalyi: “Had we been in NATO, Putin would not have attacked … Alliance is of critical importance for Ukraine.” (37:40)
• Gianni Vanetti: “We need to be serious. We need to commit ... Ukraine security is European security. Ukraine freedom is our freedom.” (57:46)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 02:38 — US-Israel-Iran crisis, Russia's limited response
• 03:00–08:00 — Ukrainian military/battlefield update; Delta system; Drone warfare
• 08:00–12:00 — Shadow fleet boarded, tankers, EU sanctions
• 13:37–19:34 — Analysis: Middle East attacks and implications for Ukraine/Russia
• 25:43 — Oil market impact of Iran unrest
• 30:07–34:28 — Kyiv protest, stories of Azov battalion captives
• 36:12–57:46 — Black Sea Security Forum: alliances, security guarantees, EU/US commitment debate

Conclusion

This episode offers a multifaceted look at how the Middle East crisis reverberates through Ukraine’s war and the larger international order. It highlights Ukraine’s evolving role as both a frontline state and a source of warfighting expertise, Russia’s vulnerabilities, the power dynamics within alliances, and poignant human stories of war and captivity. The panel underlines steadfast unity among Western allies while warning against complacency, both on the battlefield and in supporting Ukraine’s ultimate integration with security structures like NATO and the EU.